What does todayโs housing data tell us about tomorrowโs economy? On this episode of REady2Scale, Jeannette Friedrich sits down with Lance Lambert, CEO of Resi Club and former real estate editor at Fortune Magazine, to unpack the real story behind housing inventory levels, affordability pressures, and regional price corrections. From Sunbelt softness to generational shifts in homeownership, Lance offers a grounded, data-informed view of where we stand and where we may be headed.
Key Takeaways:
Inventory is building, but not fully recovered: Active listings have passed one million for the first time since 2019, though total inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms. The increase is driven more by slower sales than a surge in new supply.
Affordability remains a constraint: Home prices grew faster than incomes during the pandemic boom. With mortgage rates still elevated, many homeowners are hesitant or unable to move.
Underwater mortgages are highly concentrated: While only about 1% of U.S. mortgages are underwater nationally, pockets in the Sunbelt, like Cape Coral and Austin, show higher risk. These cases are mostly limited to 2022 buyers.
Regional bifurcation is widening: Sunbelt markets and parts of the West are softening, while many Midwest and Northeast markets are holding firmer due to tighter supply.
The โlocked-inโ effect is real: Homeowners with low mortgage rates are staying put, reducing turnover. The current level of home sales per capita is at a 40-year low.
Generational timing is shifting: The average age of first-time homebuyers is now 38, up from 33 just five years ago, driven by both affordability and lifestyle delays.
Builders are feeling the pressure: New construction inventory is at a decade high, and developers are relying more on incentives and price cuts to move product.
The housing shortage debate is nuanced: Estimates of how short the market is vary significantly. Some regions have a true supply gap, while others show little evidence of shortage when adjusted for population and household formation.
What could shift the market: Income growth, rate adjustments, and time-driven lifestyle changes may gradually unlock inventory and restore balance.
This episode is a detailed, research-backed conversation for anyone seeking clarity on how structural shifts and economic forces are shaping the future of U.S. housing.
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Credits
Producer: Blue Lake Capital
Strategist: Syed Mahmood
Editor: Emma Walker
Opening music: Pomplamoose
*๐๐ญ๐ถ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐๐ข๐ฑ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ต๐ถ๐ฏ๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ข๐ค๐ค๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ช๐ต๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ. ๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ช๐ด ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ณ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ ๐ข ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐บ ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ข ๐ด๐ฐ๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ ๐ข ๐ด๐ฆ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐บ. ๐๐ญ๐ฆ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ญ๐ต ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐๐๐, ๐ข๐ต๐ต๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐บ, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ/๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ง๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ด๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐จ๐ข๐ณ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ถ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ช๐ญ๐ช๐ต๐บ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฃ๐บ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ.
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