What Changed (And What Didn't) in CRE?

What changed, what didn’t, and what does it all mean for investors today? Twelve months ago, Paul Fiorilla of Yardi Matrix shared a cautiously optimistic outlook on multifamily real estate despite rising interest rates. Now, in June 2025, he returns to assess how that outlook held up. In this episode, Paul and host Jeannette Friedrich take a data-driven look at the key shifts in market fundamentals, capital flows, rent dynamics, and global headwinds, and what these mean for the road ahead. Key Takeaways: - Multifamily demand remained strong through 2024 but is expected to moderate due to slowing job growth, reduced immigration, and corporate return-to-office mandates - Interest rates have not declined as anticipated, keeping refinancing difficult and limiting transaction volume across the market - Distress exists but remains isolated, with capital still available for loan workouts, preferred equity, and mezzanine solutions - Sunbelt markets continue to experience rent softness due to oversupply, even as new construction slows significantly - Renewal rents are outperforming asking rents, reinforcing the value of tenant retention over new lease growth assumptions - Conservative underwriting is critical, particularly in assuming flat or modest rent growth and avoiding reliance on overly optimistic projections - Investors should prioritize experienced sponsors with strong balance sheets and a track record of navigating challenging environments - Geopolitical shifts, including trade policy and U.S. retrenchment from global leadership, introduce new macroeconomic risks that may influence capital flows and inflation Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Guest Reintroduction 01:22 Market Overview and Risk Assessment 02:19 Property Fundamentals and Demand Drivers 05:49 Capital Markets and Financing Challenges 15:30 Regional Market Insights and Rent Growth 23:57 Geopolitical Risks and Future Outlook Are you REady2Scale Your Multifamily Investments? Learn more about growing your wealth, strengthening your portfolio, and scaling to the next level at www.bluelake-capital.com. Credits Producer: Blue Lake Capital Strategist: Syed Mahmood Editor: Emma Walker Opening music: Pomplamoose *𝘉𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘊𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘊𝘗𝘈, 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘦𝘺, 𝘢𝘯𝘥/𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘺 𝘺𝘰𝘶. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices