November 3, 2025 • 31 mins
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We head to El Cardonal Golf Course in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship! Rick uses data to breakdown the courses, field and much more!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
What's up, guys?
Rick here with your preview forthis week's WWT Championship.
This is the newer-ish styleevent, or at least new golf
course you're playing in Cabo atuh a Tiger Woods golf course.
There's also an event in AbuDhabi this week, so we can cover
that a lot on the live chat onWednesday as well.
But nice to be back in thesaddle.
(00:20):
Nice to be rocking and rolling.
I don't want to waste any moreof your time.
So let's get right after it.
This is the course key statstool.
This might look different to alot of you.
I kind of soft launched this onTwitter a couple of days ago,
maybe a week ago, and it is acomplete and utter overhaul to
the course key stats model andthe way it is displayed.
(00:42):
The goal is to make it easier toconsume more actionable data and
model a little bit morepredictively.
Now, this is a bad week to showit.
Not a bad week.
It's just not a full weekbecause there is no shot link
data, or there has not beenhistoric shot link data in the
(01:04):
past, and there's only two yearsworth of data.
So you'll see when we get toplaces like Bay Hill, this
becomes a lot more actionablebecause you're getting more
predictive modeling.
So we'll we'll talk about all ofthis when when we get there.
But for now, it's El Cardinal,it's it's Diamante.
(01:27):
This is a resort in Cabo, TigerWoods, uh again, resort style
golf course, Pazpolum greens,large fairways, not a lot of
trouble if you miss the orexcuse me, large greens, not a
lot of trouble if you miss thefairway, right?
That that is what resort golfis.
Um, if you look at the scoringrates, 23% birdie or better,
that is five percent more thanthe PGA tour average.
(01:47):
Obviously, then uh not in allcases, but in most cases, the
bogear worst percentage is goingto be lower, and that's the case
here.
If you look at the scorecard,and even without the shot link
data, we can do this regressionmodel, and the regression model
has been updated.
So I had previously I had theprimary stats in what was like a
(02:08):
spider graph, and then I had thesecondary stats in the um in a
table on the side.
And what I've done is I'vebasically just meshed those
together, merged them togetherinto this bar chart.
And this bar chart are uhbasically, I think it's like the
top 40 best stats.
So it's your strokes gain stats,it's some of the drive.
(02:30):
It's you know, you're rarelygonna see like 75 to 100 yards
from the right hand rough.
It pops up, it's not actionable,it's a very bad stat.
So these are the best stats touse, and then they're of course
um uh ranked or sorted by howstrong of a correlation they
(02:50):
are, higher correlation to theright into the green, that's
better.
White, that's kind of yourmiddle stats, red, those are
your weaker correlations.
And then um, if you hover overthem, you'll be able to see what
the ranks are.
So little just quick tutorialthere.
What this ends up showing isthat um you want to be a pretty
prolific birdie maker.
So birdie to bogey ratio andbirdie average and birdie or
(03:13):
better percentage are three ofthe top four most correlated to
stats to success at this golfcourse.
And remember, that's not that isnot just while they're playing
here.
That is their their seasonstats, right?
Their their last 100 roundstats.
The guys that are like, hey,they're birdie makers
everywhere.
They come here and they havemore success than usual.
(03:34):
So birdie to bogey ratio isusually a pretty uh highly
correlated stat, but it ranks13th, which means there's only
12 other courses in which uhbirdie to bogey ratio is more
important.
Well, now that I'm doing thismod, there's like 90 courses.
There used to be 50 courses, nowthere's 90 courses.
So it is pretty significant whenyou start getting even inside
(03:55):
the top 25 for some of thesestats.
After that, um, you see par fourscoring, you see par three
scoring, and you see three puttavoidance, and then five and
then putts made over 10 feet.
Um, that would be the last one,and maybe greens in regulation.
Those would be the last onesthat are in the green strong
zone, if you will.
(04:16):
Maybe we'll come up with acooler name than that, but like
that green zone where thosecorrelation values are
significant and they are strong.
So you're talking about partthree scoring, par four scoring,
no surprise there.
Birdie makers, large greens.
So three putt avoidance, uh likea charm.
Every time you get large greens,three putt avoidance starts to
(04:39):
become a lot more correlated tosuccess because you get guys
that have 50 foot, 60 foot, 70,80 foot putts that are getting
to the range where you are muchmore likely to three putt than
you are to make those putts.
So that always pops up.
And then putts made over 10feet.
Okay, now we're cooking.
Uh, that's where you makebirdies from.
Now, if this was a differentcourse with shot link, I would
(05:02):
be able to show you what theapproach bins are, which is what
this is showing right now.
But you'll see for a course it'sblank, so it's just showing you
tour averages right now, and itwould show you the relative
shots.
So if if you know 20% of theshots are coming from 100 to
125, that would be plus 12because the tour average is only
(05:24):
eight.
Okay, so it would be relative totour average.
Then what I do now is I try topredict this a little bit more.
So knowing where these guys'shots are going to come from,
knowing their skill base foreach one of these shots, uh, in
strokes gained, not inproximity.
Proximity is not a very goodstat, uh, but strokes gained is,
(05:45):
you can predict an adjustment interms of strokes gained
approach, which is what I'vedone here.
Now, again, this week, thisisn't very actionable because
it's just using PGA Tor averagenumbers.
Okay.
Um, still Victor Perez gets abump, Henrik Norlander gets a
bump, Ben Coles gets a bump.
These guys are getting positiveapproach adjustments, but it's
(06:08):
relative to tour average, notopposed to this golf course.
And then I'm gonna do the samething, and I do do the same
thing for putting.
So we know make percentages frominside five feet, six to nine
feet, 10 to 15, 15 plus at eachgolf course.
And we know I've started tocalculate now the strokes gain
metrics for each golfer'sputting numbers from those
(06:30):
ranges, and we know thefrequency in which they're gonna
come from for each player.
So now you start to be a littlebit predictive and you give guys
putting adjustments.
So we're talking about thoseputts from 10 feet and on being
very highly correlated tosuccess at this golf course.
The guys who gain the moststrokes on those putts per putt,
(06:52):
Taylor Montgomery, Sam Ryder,Maddie Schmid, Jacob Bridgman,
Max Grazerman.
I've got thousands of putts onthese guys.
This is only for 2025.
I've got tens of thousands ofshots for all of these guys,
right?
I mean, Ben Coles, 1,500approach shots are going into
his model.
Um, Maddie Schmidt, 2,200 puttsgoing into his model.
(07:15):
And then we can start to makethose putting adjustments.
So guys that get a good 10 to 15adjustment and a good putting
adjustment overall, Sam Ryder,you know, Nico Echeveria, Gordon
Sargent, he doesn't have as manyputts as everybody else does,
Sammy Valamaki to name a few.
And then if you see where thisis going, the new adjusted
(07:37):
course fit uh uh takes uh youradjustment off the T, your
adjustment on approach, youradjustment with the putter, and
adjusts you per round.
So the easy way to look at this,and and again, this week is not
a great example because it's notthe shot length data, but we'll
talk about this a lot in thenext months and years moving
(07:58):
forward.
A way to say this would besomething like Michael Thor
Björnson gets a 0.94 stroke perround skill adjustment on this
golf course, okay?
Because he gets a big boost offthe T, gets a pretty good boost
on approach, and he is flat withthe putter.
(08:21):
That adds up to nearly a strokeper round.
Okay, so this will continue toevolve, but the idea around this
is being as um predictive aspossible, as opposed to
retrospectively, and using everysingle shot to start building
(08:42):
these models out.
So I'm really proud of it.
Check it out.
Again, it'll get a lot better asthe weeks go on and and they
have shot link.
It'll be it'll be very easy tosee what's going on here, but I
I hope that's in enjoyable fory'all.
Okay, here's the cheat sheet onmy website, riprungood.com.
All this is on riffrungood.com,obviously, if I didn't mention
that.
We've got three golfers over$10,000, and this is a really
(09:03):
interesting group.
We've got Ben Griffin, who hasbeen out of everybody in this
field, maybe the second bestplayer in this field for 2025.
Um, he does it in a lot of goodways.
He's a is a very strong putter.
He plays an international game.
He just came back from Indiawhere he finished 32nd and he
picked up 6.2 strokes from T toGreen.
He actually struggled puttingthere and at Beth Page, which is
(09:24):
very rare because he's a he'sone of the better putters that
we have on the PGA tour.
He's played this event each ofthe last two years, or excuse
me, he's played here two of thelast three years.
He's only played once at ElCardanal.
He finished T24.
El Cameleon hosted this eventprior.
That's now a live course.
I played that course last week,or not last week, last year.
Uh, very fun course.
(09:45):
Uh El Cameleon, beautiful,beautiful.
They don't play it thereanymore.
Um, so keep that in mind.
There's only two years worth ofdata at El Cardinal at Diamante,
which is the Tiger Woods golfcourse.
The the interesting thing aboutBen Griffin is as much as I love
Ben Griffin, he's$10,500.
JJ Spawn is$100 cheaper, has hadthe better year.
(10:06):
So I would say JJ Spawn, ifeverybody in this field has had
the best 2025.
Is that actually true?
I'm I that's my opinion.
Let's go look.
So everybody in 2025 in thisfield, minimum 20 starts, stroke
scan.
Let me zoom out a little bit soyou guys can see it.
Strokes gain total per round.
We're getting, let's do only, Ionly want PGA tour rounds.
(10:29):
I'm not going to give these guyscredit.
Oh, it is Ben Griffin.
It is incredibly close, though.
JJ Spawn uh Ben Griffin's 1.17.
JJ Spawn is 1.14.
JJ Spawn, of course, has thevictory at the US Open.
Very, very sound.
Both these guys are great, but Iwould say JJ Spawn's been better
in 2025.
Um, should be well rested,hasn't played since the since
(10:51):
the since the Ryder Cup.
He's played here one time.
He finished T30.
That was last year.
The other thing that I findinteresting about JJ Spawn is
you did not see driving distanceanywhere near the most
correlated stats to success atEl Cardinal.
In fact, the three lowestcorrelated, weakest
(11:14):
correlations, the three are ballspeed, clubhead speed, and
driving distance.
Okay.
So if you're a JJ spawn and thethings that you do poorly,
driving distance, all drives,103 on tour, club head speed,
116 miles an hour, 88th on tour.
And his ball speed is yeah, 173.
(11:38):
Uh nothing, nothing to writehome about, right?
So ball speed, club speed, andcarry below average.
Those are the three things thatstatistically just do not
matter.
So I'm gonna be firing quite abit of JJ Spawn every chance
that I can get.
And then Rico Hoey has probablybeen the fall MVP.
(12:02):
Uh no wins, but he's got the10th place for the ninth place
finish at the Pro Corps, thefourth in Japan, the runner up
at the Black Desert.
The metrics are beyond amazing.
The putter that he has unlockedwith the long putter has not
always been outstanding.
Like, for example, he onlygained a stroke putting last
week, but the last three roundshe picked up like five strokes
(12:24):
putting after a really dismalstart.
You know, it has not been alwaysperfect for for Rico with the
with the um new putter, but it'sbeen good enough to keep him in
things because of what a greatball striker that he is.
So I I it's hard to dislike anyof these guys, but you're you're
probably gonna see me take on asignificant uh stand on JJ Spawn
(12:48):
here.
I wish he I probably wish hewould have played a little bit
more this fall, but I'm I'mpretty happy with the way he
sets up for this golf course.
The 9k range is great here.
I might try to catch MaxGrazerman in this spot.
Um finished runner up at the BayCurrent Classic, the Japanese
event, which had shot link, butit was so bad and so wrong.
(13:09):
Actually, the PGA Tourrecommended um not using it.
So I don't know how Max did itstrokes gained wise, but he
finished runner-up.
He also finished fourth at thisevent last year.
Max has had post-uh RocketClassic.
So basically, from the the latesummer on, he has not been
(13:29):
himself, it has not looked good,it has been very different than
what we've normally seen.
If he is, quote, back aftertaking a month off and is back
to doing what he what he wasdoing for the year prior to
that, he'd be a very strongapproach player, he'd be a very
strong putter at a golf coursethat he has um finished well at.
(13:50):
And I think this is a great spotto grab him.
So you're probably gonna see mealso take a little bit more risk
on Max Graserman.
Garrick Higgo might be in thetop five of fall MVPs at the
moment.
He's got three straight topseven finishes at three
completely different golfcourses, right?
You've got um Silverado in Napa,you've got the Country Club of
(14:12):
Jackson, and you've got YokohamaCountry Club, all three of those
places asking you differentthings.
He gains across the board in allof them.
He has found it, right?
He has found the game that wesaw him have a lot early in his
career.
DP World Tour, coming over,winning the um event in South
(14:34):
Carolina at Congoree, and we'restarting to see that much more
now.
So you're gonna see me get apretty good bit of exposure to
Grazerman, Higgo, but Iunderstand there's a lot of risk
involved.
Uh, if you noticed, when I wentto the Holy Grail and I looked
at just PGA tour events in 2025,it was Ben Griffin one, JJ Spawn
(14:57):
two, Thorbjorn Ollison numberthree.
And if you dive deeper intothat, it's a lot of really good
play.
He he misses more cuts than alot of his peers.
You see that here.
He's he's he's missed a third ofhis cuts in 2025, which is half
or twice the rate of JJ Spawn,but he has got uh a bunch of top
20s, 24%.
(15:18):
When he plays well, he finishesinside the top 10, inside the
top five.
He has a very strongstrokes-gained um profile where
he gains in all four majorcategories.
I I think this is a reallyinteresting spot because you're
gonna get you're gonna geteverybody in on Michael
Thorbjornsen, and you're gonnaget in on Higo, and maybe people
are gonna be in on Kevin Yu, oreven what Michael Brennan did.
(15:38):
And what does that leave ThorBjorn Olison just like, well,
well, now what?
Um, you know, it it's it's apretty decent spot, I think, to
run him out.
He is making his debut, but I'mnot too worried about that.
Look at these last four.
Look at these last six, all overthe world, five top 20s.
(16:00):
Uh Denmark, the Danish golfchampionship, Irish Open,
Jackson, Mississippi, Madrid,Southern Utah.
Sick.
Here's Michael Brennan.
Are we buying this?
We're gonna find out.
I don't even have a headshot forhim yet.
I guess I should update that.
Um Michael Brennan wins theBlack Desert with some pretty
(16:26):
gaudy numbers.
Seven and a half strokes gainedoff the T.
He pulled driver in places youshouldn't pull driver, and he
executed it.
Picked up two strokes onapproach, picked up six with the
putter, five and a half with theputter.
I'm going to assume we've gotregression coming.
Uh, probably unlikely that youcan gain seven strokes off the T
(16:50):
at Black or excuse me, at ElCardinal without being Bryson D.
Chambeau and hitting it like 400yards.
So that is probably not gonnahappen again.
Uh putter, probably not gonna,but I I I will say I don't think
I'll get to Michael Brennan thisweek, but I will be in on
Michael Brennan a lot in 2026.
(17:14):
Uh, I think what the most likelyscenario is is we start to see
that sigh of relief that we seea lot from guys who win early
and win for the first time.
He's at a golf course that isnot going to allow him to put
together the same stat profilethat he put together in southern
Utah.
But we're gonna find a lot ofreally good spots for Michael
(17:34):
Brennan that are not necessarilynow paying$9,000 for it with a
$9,000 range.
That's that's pretty savvy.
If if you are though trying todecide between Brennan and maybe
some of the guys in the um inthe upper 8k range, I'd probably
prefer Brennan, but I I thinkyou're gonna see a lot of my
exposure go towards some ofthese other guys who are a
(17:57):
little bit more expensive.
The 8k range is a little soft,you know, still wondering what
Wyndham champion uh, whatWyndham championship, what
Wyndham Clark is going to be upto.
His run and metrics have notbeen good for the past few
months.
No really idea or feel forwhat's gonna happen there.
Nick Taylor, I'm a believer in,but you know, Pearson Cootie is
(18:19):
probably the guy that I've beensinging the praises for the
most, and I'm and I'm quitehappy about that.
The third at the Black Desert,I've I've probably said this 15
times, but back and forthbetween the Corn Ferry tour,
he's been very strong.
His last two PGA tour eventsalone were a 14th in Sanderson
Farms and a third to BlackDesert.
Um, really talented player,drives it well, just a lot of a
lot of game, great pedigree outof Texas, like all that stuff.
(18:41):
So probably just defaulting toPearson Cootie.
As much as I love Nico Echeveriaand he put up a pretty solid
title defense in Japan, that wasnot that feels more like an
outlier than anything.
Um, Jacob Bridgman shows up on alot of those um modeling the
course.
You know, we don't have a lot ofdata, like, but like small
(19:03):
sample size Jacob Bridgemanshows up in a pretty good spot,
finished 14th here last year,not thrilled.
Again, just like really notthrilled about the entirety of
this 8k range.
Yes, Burst Svensen is a uh justkind of like a statistical
darling at the moment.
He hits the ball so hard and sofar, he gives himself a three or
four stroke off the T advantage.
(19:24):
Um, just just with that clubalone.
You see, ball speed, he's he'sfourth in this field, or excuse
me, club speed, he's fourth inthis field, 123 miles an hour.
Ball speed, he's fifth in thisfield.
Carry, he's very high, 306 um,306 yards, kind of sprays it all
over the place in a lot ofdifferent directions.
I don't think that's a hugeissue here, but you know, I I am
(19:45):
waiting for him to kind of put alot of this together.
He cannot putt to save his lifeon a golf course that's gonna
ask you to try to avoid a lot ofthree putts and make a lot of
putts from 10 feet.
That's probably a concern.
So we'll keep an eye.
You know, admittedly, paspolumgreens do make usually make bad
putters better.
Um, in fact, if you startlooking at let's just do this
(20:09):
real quick here.
Um, last couple of years, let'sdo back to 2022 on Pazpolum, and
we're gonna look at strokes gaintotal because there's not always
a um shot link available at uhpasspolum golf courses because
(20:29):
they're usually tropical,they're usually coastal, they're
usually foreign outside ofAmerica.
They don't they don't usuallytake it there.
So guys that you know haveputted well, Chan Kim, who's not
a very good putter in general,putts well on Pazpolom.
Um Joel Damon putts well onPaspol, Ben Griffin, even
better.
You'll see guys like I waslooking for Emiliano Grillo,
here he is, gaining two-thirdsof a stroke putting on Pazpolum
(20:54):
and plays pretty much well abovehis baseline, hasn't lost
strokes putting in any of hislast, has has never lost strokes
putting in a measured paspolomevent in 2022, since 2022.
Now, he missed the cut here lastor two years ago, no shot link.
We don't know if he how he didthere, right?
So there's it's a double-edgedsword.
But that if there was a placewhere you'd hope Svensen could
(21:19):
putt to a zero, maybe you hopeit's here.
Hope is not particularly a goodstrategy, though, but I'm I'm
pointing it out if you want tomake that decision for yourself.
The talent that resides at$7,900alone, I think, is gonna garner
a lot of attention.
Johnny Kiefer is$7,900.
He is uh I don't know if his PGAtour status starts now or if
(21:43):
it's 2026, but he's he'sthrough.
He like won Corn Fairy.
I think he won both player ofthe year and rookie of the year
on the Corn Fairy tour, which Ithink the last guy to do that
was either Scotty Scheffler orJustin Thomas.
Don't quote me on that.
It also does not mean thatJohnny Kiefer is going to turn
into either one of those guys,but he is phenomenal.
(22:04):
He's very, very talented.
Again, we don't have a lot ofhis data.
He we have a lot more data, um,a lot less data on him than
anybody else.
But I think what you're gonnasee, yeah, he's right here.
Young, modern, 120 mile an hourclub speed, 181 ball speed, puts
him like 12th in this field,just a ridiculous specimen who
(22:27):
has one at every single level.
And$7,900 is criminally low at agolf course that is not gonna
throw much penalty at you and isgonna ask you to make a ton of
birdies, which is what theseguys' specialties are.
He's gonna be very popular.
Takumi Kanaya is also$7,900.
(22:47):
Uh, a longer burn for Kanaya,but one of the great one of the
best amateurs in the world,turns pro, starting to find his
feet a little bit, right?
21st at the Sanderson Farms,fourth at the Bay Current.
He won a Japanese event uh inthere somewhere, 33rd at the
Black Desert.
I love this guy.
I think he's incrediblytalented.
Um, he is older than JohnnyKiefer, right?
(23:08):
Uh three years older, probably abetter amateur career, but is
taking a little bit more time inprofessional golf to get
everything figured out, but itlooks like he is starting to get
everything figured out.
A couple other guys in the$7,400range.
Um, you'll see me on LukeClanton.
It is with a little bit ofcaution, but come on.
(23:33):
He doesn't go from beingeverybody's shiny new object uh
to$7,400 and dead to the worldin the time frame that he has.
Yes, he's turned pro.
Yeah, it's harder when you turnpro.
He is still an elite driver, avery good approach player, and
he's gained strokes with aputter in each of his last two.
(23:54):
He has a short game problem.
Don't miss these 8,000 squarefoot greens, okay?
You won't have to worry aboutyour short game at all.
It's a resort golf course.
Go out and just smash thisplace.
That that is exciting to me forLukland at$7,400.
William Mao and um TaylorMontgomery are still two very
highly ranked 7K players, uh,Patrick Fishburn as well, in the
(24:18):
strokes game trend department.
So playing over their 100-roundbaseline, William Mao is
basically now a stroke per roundplayer.
Montgomery a little bit betterthan that, Fishburn a hair
better than that.
And both Mao and Montgomery'ssignificant improvements have
come from Tita Green.
Mao is actually, oh boy, Peter,Peter uh Nade, Kate, I don't
(24:39):
know how he pronounces that, isscrewing up my my chart here.
But the um the William Maostuff, even with a win, looks
like he is still due for astatistical come-up.
He is still putting below his100-round baseline, despite a
(25:00):
win, a seventh and a 38th, andan 18th place finish that I had
to throw away his shot link datafrom in Japan.
Right?
Miscut the Black Desert, notgood.
Unique golf course.
I can make a lot of excuses forthat.
I'm I I don't think William Maois done.
I I think there's another top 10coming this fall.
(25:24):
7,400, maybe another win iscoming, probably not, but but
the stats are very uh positive.
That I thought I was gonna comeup with a cooler word than
positive.
Very good for Mr.
Mal.
Let's see if Ben Coles is goingto make a putt this week.
(25:47):
Um, probably not, though he wasa zero putter at the Black
Desert.
That's all we ask.
T20 with zero, with a zero withthe putter.
Love that for you.
Last time he was a zero, T8 atthe ISCO.
So that's all we're that's allwe're asking for, Mr.
Coles.
That's all we're asking for.
(26:08):
Jackson Suber, amongst all theother guys with great collegiate
and amateur records, uh, I feellike has gotten lost in the mix.
Finished 15th at the BlackDesert.
A lot of it was with the flatstick.
However, he's a very, very goodputter.
It's already the second time inhis last like 10 starts, he's
gained five strokes with theflat stick.
So I'm not too concerned aboutthat.
(26:29):
He could fill it up in a big wayat this place, make a lot of
birdies.
The most mispriced guy is DavidFord.
And I will I sat here two weeksago, or was it last week?
Two weeks ago, I don't know whatit was.
And what conversation did Ihave?
I said, listen, I don't knowwhen David Ford is gonna figure
(26:51):
this out, but he's gonna figureit out.
He's now through PGA tour you,has his tour card, is incredibly
talented, incredibly talented.
Um look at the driver, multiplestrokes with the driver every
time he tees it up, starting toshow some better signs in the
(27:12):
other areas.
We've got a putting problemagain, but he picked up four
strokes putting at the BlackDesert.
He gets on past pollen, whoknows?
Finishes third at the BlackDesert.
He is$6,700.
We do not need much, and he hastop eight upside in this field.
So really, really excited forhim the next 12 months and the
next 12 years, but is veryplayable in this spot.
(27:36):
Let's run a model here, and I'mgonna refresh my memory.
So we want birdie makers, parthree, par four scoring, three
putt avoidance, putts,especially outside of 10 feet.
Um we're not putting a lot ofemphasis on distance, clubhead
speed, ball speed, apex height.
We're not putting any emphasison that.
(27:58):
So, what we will do is we willrun this model for the last uh
we gotta kinda go 50 rounds.
We'll put a little bit of ourour um weighted strokes gain
total baseline in there just forfor solidarity.
15 on weighted strokes gaintotal.
So now we are gonna say go makesome birdies.
(28:22):
I want birdies or better gainedfor 20.
I want putting uh from 10 to 15feet and 15 to 20 feet for 10.
Those are like your bonusputting zones.
We could also put 10 on approachputt performance because that is
(28:45):
like how to avoid three putts.
Okay.
We could also do slower greens.
Pazpolum generally runs muchslower.
That would give us like 40 onputting.
Let's put let's put five on slowgreens.
Let's put um 10 on strokes gamepar three, ten on strokes game
(29:08):
par four, course history.
Um do I want course history?
I don't think I need to.
Where's our last 10 gonna go?
Oogie avoidance?
No, I don't care about that, doI?
(29:28):
Driving, no.
Approach?
I guess I could do umopportunities plus gains, which
would be approaches with inside10 feet for Birdie uh relative
to the field.
Alright, let's see what happens.
My number one golfer, okay, wow,oh boy, is Ben Griffin.
(29:51):
That's fine.
I'm not I'm not surprised aboutthat.
My number two golfer is TaylorMontgomery, which is a little
bit scary.
He is getting just a significantSignificant boost on all the
putting metrics, which is likehalf of the stuff that we have
here.
And is actually pretty good onpar threes and part fours
(30:13):
because he's terrible on parfives.
Schmidt is four uh three, Higgois four, Grillo is five, JJ
Spawn is six, Victor Perez,Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole, Max
Grazerman.
Okay, I'm gonna favorite some ofthese guys because I need to do
a little bit more homework here.
I'm gonna favorite Schmid.
I will favorite Victor Perez andKeith Mitchell.
(30:33):
I know what Keith Mitchell isabout, but I'm worried about
that.
I need to look at that again.
And I want to see.
If we sort this by putting,yeah, okay.
So putting from 10 to 15 feet.
Yeah, Montgomery's in there.
He's top five.
Rider.
Okay, I just want to see some ofthe other guys that scored well
(30:56):
for me.
Um, David Skins pops in.
He's actually a pretty goodscore as well.
72.
David Skins,$6,700.
He's 18th in my model.
Really good putting and birdiemaking numbers.
Interesting.
Okay, wow.
(31:16):
We got work to do, and we'regonna get it done.
Wednesday, live chat, 3 p.m.
Eastern time, WWT or Abu Dhabi.
Talk about anything you want.
Stoke to be back home and justrocking and rolling.
Um, that's all.
Best of luck this week.
Talk to you guys soon.
What's up, guys?
Rick here with your preview forthis week's WWT Championship.
This is the newer-ish styleevent, or at least new golf
course you're playing in Cabo atuh a Tiger Woods golf course.
There's also an event in AbuDhabi this week, so we can cover
that a lot on the live chat onWednesday as well.
But nice to be back in thesaddle.
(00:20):
Nice to be rocking and rolling.
I don't want to waste any moreof your time.
So let's get right after it.
This is the course key statstool.
This might look different to alot of you.
I kind of soft launched this onTwitter a couple of days ago,
maybe a week ago, and it is acomplete and utter overhaul to
the course key stats model andthe way it is displayed.
(00:42):
The goal is to make it easier toconsume more actionable data and
model a little bit morepredictively.
Now, this is a bad week to showit.
Not a bad week.
It's just not a full weekbecause there is no shot link
data, or there has not beenhistoric shot link data in the
(01:04):
past, and there's only two yearsworth of data.
So you'll see when we get toplaces like Bay Hill, this
becomes a lot more actionablebecause you're getting more
predictive modeling.
So we'll we'll talk about all ofthis when when we get there.
But for now, it's El Cardinal,it's it's Diamante.
(01:27):
This is a resort in Cabo, TigerWoods, uh again, resort style
golf course, Pazpolum greens,large fairways, not a lot of
trouble if you miss the orexcuse me, large greens, not a
lot of trouble if you miss thefairway, right?
That that is what resort golfis.
Um, if you look at the scoringrates, 23% birdie or better,
that is five percent more thanthe PGA tour average.
(01:47):
Obviously, then uh not in allcases, but in most cases, the
bogear worst percentage is goingto be lower, and that's the case
here.
If you look at the scorecard,and even without the shot link
data, we can do this regressionmodel, and the regression model
has been updated.
So I had previously I had theprimary stats in what was like a
(02:08):
spider graph, and then I had thesecondary stats in the um in a
table on the side.
And what I've done is I'vebasically just meshed those
together, merged them togetherinto this bar chart.
And this bar chart are uhbasically, I think it's like the
top 40 best stats.
So it's your strokes gain stats,it's some of the drive.
(02:30):
It's you know, you're rarelygonna see like 75 to 100 yards
from the right hand rough.
It pops up, it's not actionable,it's a very bad stat.
So these are the best stats touse, and then they're of course
um uh ranked or sorted by howstrong of a correlation they
(02:50):
are, higher correlation to theright into the green, that's
better.
White, that's kind of yourmiddle stats, red, those are
your weaker correlations.
And then um, if you hover overthem, you'll be able to see what
the ranks are.
So little just quick tutorialthere.
What this ends up showing isthat um you want to be a pretty
prolific birdie maker.
So birdie to bogey ratio andbirdie average and birdie or
(03:13):
better percentage are three ofthe top four most correlated to
stats to success at this golfcourse.
And remember, that's not that isnot just while they're playing
here.
That is their their seasonstats, right?
Their their last 100 roundstats.
The guys that are like, hey,they're birdie makers
everywhere.
They come here and they havemore success than usual.
(03:34):
So birdie to bogey ratio isusually a pretty uh highly
correlated stat, but it ranks13th, which means there's only
12 other courses in which uhbirdie to bogey ratio is more
important.
Well, now that I'm doing thismod, there's like 90 courses.
There used to be 50 courses, nowthere's 90 courses.
So it is pretty significant whenyou start getting even inside
(03:55):
the top 25 for some of thesestats.
After that, um, you see par fourscoring, you see par three
scoring, and you see three puttavoidance, and then five and
then putts made over 10 feet.
Um, that would be the last one,and maybe greens in regulation.
Those would be the last onesthat are in the green strong
zone, if you will.
(04:16):
Maybe we'll come up with acooler name than that, but like
that green zone where thosecorrelation values are
significant and they are strong.
So you're talking about partthree scoring, par four scoring,
no surprise there.
Birdie makers, large greens.
So three putt avoidance, uh likea charm.
Every time you get large greens,three putt avoidance starts to
(04:39):
become a lot more correlated tosuccess because you get guys
that have 50 foot, 60 foot, 70,80 foot putts that are getting
to the range where you are muchmore likely to three putt than
you are to make those putts.
So that always pops up.
And then putts made over 10feet.
Okay, now we're cooking.
Uh, that's where you makebirdies from.
Now, if this was a differentcourse with shot link, I would
(05:02):
be able to show you what theapproach bins are, which is what
this is showing right now.
But you'll see for a course it'sblank, so it's just showing you
tour averages right now, and itwould show you the relative
shots.
So if if you know 20% of theshots are coming from 100 to
125, that would be plus 12because the tour average is only
(05:24):
eight.
Okay, so it would be relative totour average.
Then what I do now is I try topredict this a little bit more.
So knowing where these guys'shots are going to come from,
knowing their skill base foreach one of these shots, uh, in
strokes gained, not inproximity.
Proximity is not a very goodstat, uh, but strokes gained is,
(05:45):
you can predict an adjustment interms of strokes gained
approach, which is what I'vedone here.
Now, again, this week, thisisn't very actionable because
it's just using PGA Tor averagenumbers.
Okay.
Um, still Victor Perez gets abump, Henrik Norlander gets a
bump, Ben Coles gets a bump.
These guys are getting positiveapproach adjustments, but it's
(06:08):
relative to tour average, notopposed to this golf course.
And then I'm gonna do the samething, and I do do the same
thing for putting.
So we know make percentages frominside five feet, six to nine
feet, 10 to 15, 15 plus at eachgolf course.
And we know I've started tocalculate now the strokes gain
metrics for each golfer'sputting numbers from those
(06:30):
ranges, and we know thefrequency in which they're gonna
come from for each player.
So now you start to be a littlebit predictive and you give guys
putting adjustments.
So we're talking about thoseputts from 10 feet and on being
very highly correlated tosuccess at this golf course.
The guys who gain the moststrokes on those putts per putt,
(06:52):
Taylor Montgomery, Sam Ryder,Maddie Schmid, Jacob Bridgman,
Max Grazerman.
I've got thousands of putts onthese guys.
This is only for 2025.
I've got tens of thousands ofshots for all of these guys,
right?
I mean, Ben Coles, 1,500approach shots are going into
his model.
Um, Maddie Schmidt, 2,200 puttsgoing into his model.
(07:15):
And then we can start to makethose putting adjustments.
So guys that get a good 10 to 15adjustment and a good putting
adjustment overall, Sam Ryder,you know, Nico Echeveria, Gordon
Sargent, he doesn't have as manyputts as everybody else does,
Sammy Valamaki to name a few.
And then if you see where thisis going, the new adjusted
(07:37):
course fit uh uh takes uh youradjustment off the T, your
adjustment on approach, youradjustment with the putter, and
adjusts you per round.
So the easy way to look at this,and and again, this week is not
a great example because it's notthe shot length data, but we'll
talk about this a lot in thenext months and years moving
(07:58):
forward.
A way to say this would besomething like Michael Thor
Björnson gets a 0.94 stroke perround skill adjustment on this
golf course, okay?
Because he gets a big boost offthe T, gets a pretty good boost
on approach, and he is flat withthe putter.
(08:21):
That adds up to nearly a strokeper round.
Okay, so this will continue toevolve, but the idea around this
is being as um predictive aspossible, as opposed to
retrospectively, and using everysingle shot to start building
(08:42):
these models out.
So I'm really proud of it.
Check it out.
Again, it'll get a lot better asthe weeks go on and and they
have shot link.
It'll be it'll be very easy tosee what's going on here, but I
I hope that's in enjoyable fory'all.
Okay, here's the cheat sheet onmy website, riprungood.com.
All this is on riffrungood.com,obviously, if I didn't mention
that.
We've got three golfers over$10,000, and this is a really
(09:03):
interesting group.
We've got Ben Griffin, who hasbeen out of everybody in this
field, maybe the second bestplayer in this field for 2025.
Um, he does it in a lot of goodways.
He's a is a very strong putter.
He plays an international game.
He just came back from Indiawhere he finished 32nd and he
picked up 6.2 strokes from T toGreen.
He actually struggled puttingthere and at Beth Page, which is
(09:24):
very rare because he's a he'sone of the better putters that
we have on the PGA tour.
He's played this event each ofthe last two years, or excuse
me, he's played here two of thelast three years.
He's only played once at ElCardanal.
He finished T24.
El Cameleon hosted this eventprior.
That's now a live course.
I played that course last week,or not last week, last year.
Uh, very fun course.
(09:45):
Uh El Cameleon, beautiful,beautiful.
They don't play it thereanymore.
Um, so keep that in mind.
There's only two years worth ofdata at El Cardinal at Diamante,
which is the Tiger Woods golfcourse.
The the interesting thing aboutBen Griffin is as much as I love
Ben Griffin, he's$10,500.
JJ Spawn is$100 cheaper, has hadthe better year.
(10:06):
So I would say JJ Spawn, ifeverybody in this field has had
the best 2025.
Is that actually true?
I'm I that's my opinion.
Let's go look.
So everybody in 2025 in thisfield, minimum 20 starts, stroke
scan.
Let me zoom out a little bit soyou guys can see it.
Strokes gain total per round.
We're getting, let's do only, Ionly want PGA tour rounds.
(10:29):
I'm not going to give these guyscredit.
Oh, it is Ben Griffin.
It is incredibly close, though.
JJ Spawn uh Ben Griffin's 1.17.
JJ Spawn is 1.14.
JJ Spawn, of course, has thevictory at the US Open.
Very, very sound.
Both these guys are great, but Iwould say JJ Spawn's been better
in 2025.
Um, should be well rested,hasn't played since the since
(10:51):
the since the Ryder Cup.
He's played here one time.
He finished T30.
That was last year.
The other thing that I findinteresting about JJ Spawn is
you did not see driving distanceanywhere near the most
correlated stats to success atEl Cardinal.
In fact, the three lowestcorrelated, weakest
(11:14):
correlations, the three are ballspeed, clubhead speed, and
driving distance.
Okay.
So if you're a JJ spawn and thethings that you do poorly,
driving distance, all drives,103 on tour, club head speed,
116 miles an hour, 88th on tour.
And his ball speed is yeah, 173.
(11:38):
Uh nothing, nothing to writehome about, right?
So ball speed, club speed, andcarry below average.
Those are the three things thatstatistically just do not
matter.
So I'm gonna be firing quite abit of JJ Spawn every chance
that I can get.
And then Rico Hoey has probablybeen the fall MVP.
(12:02):
Uh no wins, but he's got the10th place for the ninth place
finish at the Pro Corps, thefourth in Japan, the runner up
at the Black Desert.
The metrics are beyond amazing.
The putter that he has unlockedwith the long putter has not
always been outstanding.
Like, for example, he onlygained a stroke putting last
week, but the last three roundshe picked up like five strokes
(12:24):
putting after a really dismalstart.
You know, it has not been alwaysperfect for for Rico with the
with the um new putter, but it'sbeen good enough to keep him in
things because of what a greatball striker that he is.
So I I it's hard to dislike anyof these guys, but you're you're
probably gonna see me take on asignificant uh stand on JJ Spawn
(12:48):
here.
I wish he I probably wish hewould have played a little bit
more this fall, but I'm I'mpretty happy with the way he
sets up for this golf course.
The 9k range is great here.
I might try to catch MaxGrazerman in this spot.
Um finished runner up at the BayCurrent Classic, the Japanese
event, which had shot link, butit was so bad and so wrong.
(13:09):
Actually, the PGA Tourrecommended um not using it.
So I don't know how Max did itstrokes gained wise, but he
finished runner-up.
He also finished fourth at thisevent last year.
Max has had post-uh RocketClassic.
So basically, from the the latesummer on, he has not been
(13:29):
himself, it has not looked good,it has been very different than
what we've normally seen.
If he is, quote, back aftertaking a month off and is back
to doing what he what he wasdoing for the year prior to
that, he'd be a very strongapproach player, he'd be a very
strong putter at a golf coursethat he has um finished well at.
(13:50):
And I think this is a great spotto grab him.
So you're probably gonna see mealso take a little bit more risk
on Max Graserman.
Garrick Higgo might be in thetop five of fall MVPs at the
moment.
He's got three straight topseven finishes at three
completely different golfcourses, right?
You've got um Silverado in Napa,you've got the Country Club of
(14:12):
Jackson, and you've got YokohamaCountry Club, all three of those
places asking you differentthings.
He gains across the board in allof them.
He has found it, right?
He has found the game that wesaw him have a lot early in his
career.
DP World Tour, coming over,winning the um event in South
(14:34):
Carolina at Congoree, and we'restarting to see that much more
now.
So you're gonna see me get apretty good bit of exposure to
Grazerman, Higgo, but Iunderstand there's a lot of risk
involved.
Uh, if you noticed, when I wentto the Holy Grail and I looked
at just PGA tour events in 2025,it was Ben Griffin one, JJ Spawn
(14:57):
two, Thorbjorn Ollison numberthree.
And if you dive deeper intothat, it's a lot of really good
play.
He he misses more cuts than alot of his peers.
You see that here.
He's he's he's missed a third ofhis cuts in 2025, which is half
or twice the rate of JJ Spawn,but he has got uh a bunch of top
20s, 24%.
(15:18):
When he plays well, he finishesinside the top 10, inside the
top five.
He has a very strongstrokes-gained um profile where
he gains in all four majorcategories.
I I think this is a reallyinteresting spot because you're
gonna get you're gonna geteverybody in on Michael
Thorbjornsen, and you're gonnaget in on Higo, and maybe people
are gonna be in on Kevin Yu, oreven what Michael Brennan did.
(15:38):
And what does that leave ThorBjorn Olison just like, well,
well, now what?
Um, you know, it it's it's apretty decent spot, I think, to
run him out.
He is making his debut, but I'mnot too worried about that.
Look at these last four.
Look at these last six, all overthe world, five top 20s.
(16:00):
Uh Denmark, the Danish golfchampionship, Irish Open,
Jackson, Mississippi, Madrid,Southern Utah.
Sick.
Here's Michael Brennan.
Are we buying this?
We're gonna find out.
I don't even have a headshot forhim yet.
I guess I should update that.
Um Michael Brennan wins theBlack Desert with some pretty
(16:26):
gaudy numbers.
Seven and a half strokes gainedoff the T.
He pulled driver in places youshouldn't pull driver, and he
executed it.
Picked up two strokes onapproach, picked up six with the
putter, five and a half with theputter.
I'm going to assume we've gotregression coming.
Uh, probably unlikely that youcan gain seven strokes off the T
(16:50):
at Black or excuse me, at ElCardinal without being Bryson D.
Chambeau and hitting it like 400yards.
So that is probably not gonnahappen again.
Uh putter, probably not gonna,but I I I will say I don't think
I'll get to Michael Brennan thisweek, but I will be in on
Michael Brennan a lot in 2026.
(17:14):
Uh, I think what the most likelyscenario is is we start to see
that sigh of relief that we seea lot from guys who win early
and win for the first time.
He's at a golf course that isnot going to allow him to put
together the same stat profilethat he put together in southern
Utah.
But we're gonna find a lot ofreally good spots for Michael
(17:34):
Brennan that are not necessarilynow paying$9,000 for it with a
$9,000 range.
That's that's pretty savvy.
If if you are though trying todecide between Brennan and maybe
some of the guys in the um inthe upper 8k range, I'd probably
prefer Brennan, but I I thinkyou're gonna see a lot of my
exposure go towards some ofthese other guys who are a
(17:57):
little bit more expensive.
The 8k range is a little soft,you know, still wondering what
Wyndham champion uh, whatWyndham championship, what
Wyndham Clark is going to be upto.
His run and metrics have notbeen good for the past few
months.
No really idea or feel forwhat's gonna happen there.
Nick Taylor, I'm a believer in,but you know, Pearson Cootie is
(18:19):
probably the guy that I've beensinging the praises for the
most, and I'm and I'm quitehappy about that.
The third at the Black Desert,I've I've probably said this 15
times, but back and forthbetween the Corn Ferry tour,
he's been very strong.
His last two PGA tour eventsalone were a 14th in Sanderson
Farms and a third to BlackDesert.
Um, really talented player,drives it well, just a lot of a
lot of game, great pedigree outof Texas, like all that stuff.
(18:41):
So probably just defaulting toPearson Cootie.
As much as I love Nico Echeveriaand he put up a pretty solid
title defense in Japan, that wasnot that feels more like an
outlier than anything.
Um, Jacob Bridgman shows up on alot of those um modeling the
course.
You know, we don't have a lot ofdata, like, but like small
(19:03):
sample size Jacob Bridgemanshows up in a pretty good spot,
finished 14th here last year,not thrilled.
Again, just like really notthrilled about the entirety of
this 8k range.
Yes, Burst Svensen is a uh justkind of like a statistical
darling at the moment.
He hits the ball so hard and sofar, he gives himself a three or
four stroke off the T advantage.
(19:24):
Um, just just with that clubalone.
You see, ball speed, he's he'sfourth in this field, or excuse
me, club speed, he's fourth inthis field, 123 miles an hour.
Ball speed, he's fifth in thisfield.
Carry, he's very high, 306 um,306 yards, kind of sprays it all
over the place in a lot ofdifferent directions.
I don't think that's a hugeissue here, but you know, I I am
(19:45):
waiting for him to kind of put alot of this together.
He cannot putt to save his lifeon a golf course that's gonna
ask you to try to avoid a lot ofthree putts and make a lot of
putts from 10 feet.
That's probably a concern.
So we'll keep an eye.
You know, admittedly, paspolumgreens do make usually make bad
putters better.
Um, in fact, if you startlooking at let's just do this
(20:09):
real quick here.
Um, last couple of years, let'sdo back to 2022 on Pazpolum, and
we're gonna look at strokes gaintotal because there's not always
a um shot link available at uhpasspolum golf courses because
(20:29):
they're usually tropical,they're usually coastal, they're
usually foreign outside ofAmerica.
They don't they don't usuallytake it there.
So guys that you know haveputted well, Chan Kim, who's not
a very good putter in general,putts well on Pazpolom.
Um Joel Damon putts well onPaspol, Ben Griffin, even
better.
You'll see guys like I waslooking for Emiliano Grillo,
here he is, gaining two-thirdsof a stroke putting on Pazpolum
(20:54):
and plays pretty much well abovehis baseline, hasn't lost
strokes putting in any of hislast, has has never lost strokes
putting in a measured paspolomevent in 2022, since 2022.
Now, he missed the cut here lastor two years ago, no shot link.
We don't know if he how he didthere, right?
So there's it's a double-edgedsword.
But that if there was a placewhere you'd hope Svensen could
(21:19):
putt to a zero, maybe you hopeit's here.
Hope is not particularly a goodstrategy, though, but I'm I'm
pointing it out if you want tomake that decision for yourself.
The talent that resides at$7,900alone, I think, is gonna garner
a lot of attention.
Johnny Kiefer is$7,900.
He is uh I don't know if his PGAtour status starts now or if
(21:43):
it's 2026, but he's he'sthrough.
He like won Corn Fairy.
I think he won both player ofthe year and rookie of the year
on the Corn Fairy tour, which Ithink the last guy to do that
was either Scotty Scheffler orJustin Thomas.
Don't quote me on that.
It also does not mean thatJohnny Kiefer is going to turn
into either one of those guys,but he is phenomenal.
(22:04):
He's very, very talented.
Again, we don't have a lot ofhis data.
He we have a lot more data, um,a lot less data on him than
anybody else.
But I think what you're gonnasee, yeah, he's right here.
Young, modern, 120 mile an hourclub speed, 181 ball speed, puts
him like 12th in this field,just a ridiculous specimen who
(22:27):
has one at every single level.
And$7,900 is criminally low at agolf course that is not gonna
throw much penalty at you and isgonna ask you to make a ton of
birdies, which is what theseguys' specialties are.
He's gonna be very popular.
Takumi Kanaya is also$7,900.
(22:47):
Uh, a longer burn for Kanaya,but one of the great one of the
best amateurs in the world,turns pro, starting to find his
feet a little bit, right?
21st at the Sanderson Farms,fourth at the Bay Current.
He won a Japanese event uh inthere somewhere, 33rd at the
Black Desert.
I love this guy.
I think he's incrediblytalented.
Um, he is older than JohnnyKiefer, right?
(23:08):
Uh three years older, probably abetter amateur career, but is
taking a little bit more time inprofessional golf to get
everything figured out, but itlooks like he is starting to get
everything figured out.
A couple other guys in the$7,400range.
Um, you'll see me on LukeClanton.
It is with a little bit ofcaution, but come on.
(23:33):
He doesn't go from beingeverybody's shiny new object uh
to$7,400 and dead to the worldin the time frame that he has.
Yes, he's turned pro.
Yeah, it's harder when you turnpro.
He is still an elite driver, avery good approach player, and
he's gained strokes with aputter in each of his last two.
(23:54):
He has a short game problem.
Don't miss these 8,000 squarefoot greens, okay?
You won't have to worry aboutyour short game at all.
It's a resort golf course.
Go out and just smash thisplace.
That that is exciting to me forLukland at$7,400.
William Mao and um TaylorMontgomery are still two very
highly ranked 7K players, uh,Patrick Fishburn as well, in the
(24:18):
strokes game trend department.
So playing over their 100-roundbaseline, William Mao is
basically now a stroke per roundplayer.
Montgomery a little bit betterthan that, Fishburn a hair
better than that.
And both Mao and Montgomery'ssignificant improvements have
come from Tita Green.
Mao is actually, oh boy, Peter,Peter uh Nade, Kate, I don't
(24:39):
know how he pronounces that, isscrewing up my my chart here.
But the um the William Maostuff, even with a win, looks
like he is still due for astatistical come-up.
He is still putting below his100-round baseline, despite a
(25:00):
win, a seventh and a 38th, andan 18th place finish that I had
to throw away his shot link datafrom in Japan.
Right?
Miscut the Black Desert, notgood.
Unique golf course.
I can make a lot of excuses forthat.
I'm I I don't think William Maois done.
I I think there's another top 10coming this fall.
(25:24):
7,400, maybe another win iscoming, probably not, but but
the stats are very uh positive.
That I thought I was gonna comeup with a cooler word than
positive.
Very good for Mr.
Mal.
Let's see if Ben Coles is goingto make a putt this week.
(25:47):
Um, probably not, though he wasa zero putter at the Black
Desert.
That's all we ask.
T20 with zero, with a zero withthe putter.
Love that for you.
Last time he was a zero, T8 atthe ISCO.
So that's all we're that's allwe're asking for, Mr.
Coles.
That's all we're asking for.
(26:08):
Jackson Suber, amongst all theother guys with great collegiate
and amateur records, uh, I feellike has gotten lost in the mix.
Finished 15th at the BlackDesert.
A lot of it was with the flatstick.
However, he's a very, very goodputter.
It's already the second time inhis last like 10 starts, he's
gained five strokes with theflat stick.
So I'm not too concerned aboutthat.
(26:29):
He could fill it up in a big wayat this place, make a lot of
birdies.
The most mispriced guy is DavidFord.
And I will I sat here two weeksago, or was it last week?
Two weeks ago, I don't know whatit was.
And what conversation did Ihave?
I said, listen, I don't knowwhen David Ford is gonna figure
(26:51):
this out, but he's gonna figureit out.
He's now through PGA tour you,has his tour card, is incredibly
talented, incredibly talented.
Um look at the driver, multiplestrokes with the driver every
time he tees it up, starting toshow some better signs in the
(27:12):
other areas.
We've got a putting problemagain, but he picked up four
strokes putting at the BlackDesert.
He gets on past pollen, whoknows?
Finishes third at the BlackDesert.
He is$6,700.
We do not need much, and he hastop eight upside in this field.
So really, really excited forhim the next 12 months and the
next 12 years, but is veryplayable in this spot.
(27:36):
Let's run a model here, and I'mgonna refresh my memory.
So we want birdie makers, parthree, par four scoring, three
putt avoidance, putts,especially outside of 10 feet.
Um we're not putting a lot ofemphasis on distance, clubhead
speed, ball speed, apex height.
We're not putting any emphasison that.
(27:58):
So, what we will do is we willrun this model for the last uh
we gotta kinda go 50 rounds.
We'll put a little bit of ourour um weighted strokes gain
total baseline in there just forfor solidarity.
15 on weighted strokes gaintotal.
So now we are gonna say go makesome birdies.
(28:22):
I want birdies or better gainedfor 20.
I want putting uh from 10 to 15feet and 15 to 20 feet for 10.
Those are like your bonusputting zones.
We could also put 10 on approachputt performance because that is
(28:45):
like how to avoid three putts.
Okay.
We could also do slower greens.
Pazpolum generally runs muchslower.
That would give us like 40 onputting.
Let's put let's put five on slowgreens.
Let's put um 10 on strokes gamepar three, ten on strokes game
(29:08):
par four, course history.
Um do I want course history?
I don't think I need to.
Where's our last 10 gonna go?
Oogie avoidance?
No, I don't care about that, doI?
(29:28):
Driving, no.
Approach?
I guess I could do umopportunities plus gains, which
would be approaches with inside10 feet for Birdie uh relative
to the field.
Alright, let's see what happens.
My number one golfer, okay, wow,oh boy, is Ben Griffin.
(29:51):
That's fine.
I'm not I'm not surprised aboutthat.
My number two golfer is TaylorMontgomery, which is a little
bit scary.
He is getting just a significantSignificant boost on all the
putting metrics, which is likehalf of the stuff that we have
here.
And is actually pretty good onpar threes and part fours
(30:13):
because he's terrible on parfives.
Schmidt is four uh three, Higgois four, Grillo is five, JJ
Spawn is six, Victor Perez,Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole, Max
Grazerman.
Okay, I'm gonna favorite some ofthese guys because I need to do
a little bit more homework here.
I'm gonna favorite Schmid.
I will favorite Victor Perez andKeith Mitchell.
(30:33):
I know what Keith Mitchell isabout, but I'm worried about
that.
I need to look at that again.
And I want to see.
If we sort this by putting,yeah, okay.
So putting from 10 to 15 feet.
Yeah, Montgomery's in there.
He's top five.
Rider.
Okay, I just want to see some ofthe other guys that scored well
(30:56):
for me.
Um, David Skins pops in.
He's actually a pretty goodscore as well.
72.
David Skins,$6,700.
He's 18th in my model.
Really good putting and birdiemaking numbers.
Interesting.
Okay, wow.
(31:16):
We got work to do, and we'regonna get it done.
Wednesday, live chat, 3 p.m.
Eastern time, WWT or Abu Dhabi.
Talk about anything you want.
Stoke to be back home and justrocking and rolling.
Um, that's all.
Best of luck this week.
Talk to you guys soon.
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