May 15, 2023 • 27 mins
Dale and Matt discuss the narrative around Kenny Pickett lately and wonder why there’s not much love for him.
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson on
your twenty four to seven home of the Black and
Gold SNR Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome back to the Drive.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I'm Dale LOLLI he is Matt Williamson, and well we
were talking there about the Steelers' expectations. So Matt, if
I told you, if I gave you these numbers in
the second half for Kenny Pickett, his eight games started,
he miss remember he missed the game against the Carolina Panthers,
a win down there where Mitch Trubisky actually played pretty well.
(00:35):
So after the bye week, Pickett had eight starts through
for fourteen and forty two yards, five touchdowns, one interception,
and a passer rating of eighty four.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Also ran for.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
One hundred and thirty nine yards in a touchdown. He
was very efficient in the second half of.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
The season, very efficient.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
And oh, by the way, the Steelers went what's six
and two in those starts by Kenny Pickett?
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Yes, yes, exactly. So is there a question there?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
I just said, you know, letting EVERR know, I just
letting every like I don't get no. Five times he
had one interception in the final eight games.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I know that's remarkable, and I'm searching for something right now.
But to even back that stuff up, like I think
we can all concede. His first eight games, he was
really unlucky with interception luck, you know, I mean, and
they were losing. And I'm not excusing him. He made
some bad throws. I mean, he made some bad decisions,
(01:41):
but he paid for them at a pretty remarkable rate.
Where we have mixed feelings about Pro football Focus, but
one of my favorite things they do is, you know,
turnover worthy plays. You know, when the ball leaves your hands,
you can't you know, it's not your fault. When they
get tipped or hits the receiver right in the hands,
go straight up in the air and somebody picks it off. Well,
(02:02):
he had only had that one turnover worthy play too.
It wasn't like, boy, he got really lucky. You should
have thrown five picks, but he only threw one, you know,
Like that's not the way that worked.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, And so I just look at what Picket did
last year again, the fourth quarter comebacks, the game winning drives.
I look at what he did, and I think, Okay,
that has a chance to be pretty good. I also
look at Nause Harris's second half of the season final
(02:34):
nine games of the year after post by Nause, Harris
nine games, one hundred and sixty four carries, six hundred
and seventy three yards, six touchdowns, seventeen catches with another touchdown.
He averaged in the second half of last year eighteen
carries for seventy five yards and also averaged two catches
(02:58):
per game for another thirteen yard, so basically averaged right
around ninety yards to ninety total yards per game.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
That was just Naujie Harris.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
That doesn't factor what Jalen Warren did in the second
half of the season as well. This is a team
that wants to run the folly. I think they found
the formula last year. Oh I do too, and they
found it. I mean, if you look at who they
played in the second half of that season, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina,
(03:32):
the Raiders, Baltimore, and Cleveland, that stretch is very comparable
to what this to who they are playing this year.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
As By the way, the second half of the season's
schedule was earlier. There was easier than the first half schedule,
but it wasn't a cakewalk. I mean you still got
the Bengals and Ravens. I mean it was not a
ridiculous you know little sisters of the poor.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yeah, everybody's pretending like, oh, they didn't play anybody down
the stretch. They play the Ravens twice, they played the Bengals.
The Saints were not an awful team, you know that.
So it's not like they didn't play anybody, you know,
they but this is that's who their schedule is this year.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
I mean that's the teams are playing. I mean that's
basically what's on there, right.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
I mean I look at that first half of the schedule. Cincinnati,
the Patriots, the Browns in Cleveland on a short week,
the Jets, the Bills, the Buccaneers, Miami at Philadelphia, Like
five of those are road games, and you played a
murderer's row of teams.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
H No. The one thing I was looking for on
on Pickett too, and finally my computer was being slow,
is I looked up EPA for all quarterbacks from week
nine on. He was eleven. I mean he was right
behind to a right in front of Josh Allen, you know,
I mean he's in the Dak Prescott to uh Alan
(04:58):
Daniel Jones neighborhood for the second and half of the season.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
So if he does that right, right, he does that,
you're in great shape. Again.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
I saw something about somebody talking about the Lions. They
were writing about the Lions as a team that's gonna
you know ride what it did. Yeah, they went in
their last eight games last year, they went six and
six and two the last nine games last year, the
Steelers went seven and two.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Yeah, it just so happens. I'm looking at it. Golf
was number one on that list. Actually, second half of
the season EPA, right, I mean he was on fire,
he played really well. I mean, the Lions could be good.
I'm not you know, I think they I think they
will be good.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
I'm picked the win that division.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Yeah, I don't think the conversation is let's kill the Lions.
The Steelers are better Lions. But to me, there are
some similarities in that if there were one more playoff spot,
there would have been the Lions and Steelers, you know,
like they were the just inmus teams last year. But
there's no similarities in that, and I like what both
teams are doing front office wise, is how they're building
(06:00):
their teams, you know, line of scrimmage stuff like that.
But everyone's buzzing about the Lions. No one's really buzzing
about the Steelers, and this stuff matters. The Steelers have
won a few more playoff games than the Lions in
the last fifty years. You know what I mean, Right,
one of these organizations wins and one doesn't.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah, you know the other part of the equation with that.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
In that final of those the two losses they had
in the final nine games, they lost by seven to Cincinnati.
They lost by two to Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if I.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
When I look at that schedule, a three point loss
to the Patriots, a four point loss to the Jets,
a six point loss down in Miami where they were
throwing into the end zone twice in the final four minutes.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Yeah, with the rookie quarterback.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, they got blown out. You know, the Browns beat
them by ten up there in that short week.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
The Bills blew.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Them out, the Eagles blew them out. But those two
teams did that to a lot of teams last.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Year in Buffalo, in Philly. Yeah, and they were they
were two of the best four teams in the league.
I mean, I don't think there's a lot of argument
there with Kansas City and San Francisco. Maybe the Bengals
are in that conversation, but they're two top five teams
without what with a rookie quarterback, and they're better than you.
(07:24):
You know, and I'm a big point differential guy, but
those two games really killed that. You know, when you
look at things like that Miami game that was winnable,
the New England game that was winnable, and back to
the schedule slightly. If their AFC opponents last year kept
them out of the playoffs, their their conference record was
(07:45):
really rough on them. Yeah, because the Patriot game where
you made this point Friday, their conference games that aren't
in the AFC North are as sweet as could be.
You know, like I'd be shocked if the if if
a tie breaker comes down to conference you know record
that they don't get in.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah, I just I just look at that.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
That schedule means so much, and we knew going into
the schedule you know who they played, but when you
play them is so much. I mean, you know, the
lack of of the short road weeks and.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Things of that. Like again, I'll look at that.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Okay, So they played Cleveland on a Thursday night after
playing the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Right, that's a tough order, and that's a.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Tough order to go up to go to you know,
hop on the bus and drive to Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
It's really difficult to do.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yeah, still physically reeling from the week before and no
practices and right now you're the host of those two games.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
It's a big difference, huge difference. And you're that you're
at home.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
You know that that week before that, I think one
of those one of those Thursday night games that they
have that the team that they play, I can't remember
which one it is is on the road the week before.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
It might be the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
I didn't think either was, but I oh, maybe I'm wrong, okay,
but either way, Yeah, it's just again, I think the expectation,
like there's a there's a feeling out there, Well.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
You gotta again, you've got to be able to go
out and outscore the opponent or you gotta get to score.
You gotta score thirty points. No you don't, No, I'm
with you on that, like that, you have to score
one more point than your opponent that week.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Again, I look back, nobody in the NFL, not a
single team average thirty points per game last year.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, do you think scoring will be up? I mean,
I know that's a real sidebar. It was so down.
I wonder if you'll get rebound a.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Little bit of Usually there's some kind of adjustment made
by the league, whether they go back to you know, hey,
let's not call holding again, or something like.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
That some of the rest stuff.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yeah, but if that's the case, I think it benefits
to stee Deelers as much as it does anybody else.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Okay, we're not gonna call hold.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Okay, you know, yeah, your guys.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
You know, if you've got guys that can win off
the edge, which they do, they're gonna win for whether
they're calling holding or not.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
H like is as little as they called holding?
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Was that two years ago in twenty Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
The twenty twenty or twenty twenty one Steelers still led
the league of sacks that year, Steelers led the league
in sacks that year, watt led the league and individual sacks.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
M hm. That was pre Chiefs like leads either.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yeah, and that was the year they lost Bud Yeah, yeah,
you're right, you know he was out, he was missed
half the season.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Well, high Smith right now is equal to what Bud
was better.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
But yeah, right, I mean I think he's better.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, so okay, you don't want to call hold, you
don't you want to make holding legal again?
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Go ahead.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Yeah, they still got guys that are going to get right,
I mean, pickingtle benefit and everybody will benefit, right, Yeah,
I mean get your kind of equal for everybody. I
think it was a side note. I think that the
league will want scoring to go up. They also would
think so, yeah, sixty nine different quarterbacks starting games either,
well there's.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
That too, There is certainly that.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
But yeah, I mean I just I look at you know,
the league as a whole, like so people were going
to look at the Steelers season as a whole from
last year as well. You know, they only average eighteen
points a game. You can't look at I firmly believe
you can't look at their season like that. I almost
looked like I look at it like they played two
(11:36):
different seasons last.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Year, and the Lions qualify as well. I mean, there's
some other teams out there similar and you can look
at the other way too sometimes. You know, the Ravens
are a really good example. Off top of oh, absolutely, yeah,
second half of the season was miserable. First half of
the season was great, but if you can blame injuries,
that's a little different. Where the Steelers, it's like, well
(11:59):
they found them themselves. They got better. Yes, they played
easier teams, but I also think the Week thirteen team,
the Week thirteen Steelers beats the Week three Steelers by
fourteen points, you know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, not only that, but the Week thirteen Steelers beat
the Patriots at home, and the Jets and the Jets
and they win. They win at least one of those games. Yeah,
but that way, maybe you don't win them all, but
you win at least one of them.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
I mean, everyone knows. I'm into some of the side
stats and metrics and whatnot. Like their time of possession
was so bad, you know, for the first month, six weeks,
maybe even the full half of the season, and then
they end up like almost leaving the league in time
of possession after starting in an unbelievably deep hooll you know,
(12:48):
Like do you know how much that helps Cam Hayward
and Najie Harris and James Daniels, you know what I mean?
Like those type of things, like they were always on
the field to start the year. Defense that's what.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
I'm looking for. Were like, that's the carryover I'm looking.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
For me too, right, Like that sustainable that travels.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Yeah, because like so you know people are gonna look
at it. Well, the Steelers average eighteen point one points
per game last year. I can remember writing at mid
season looking like they were they were dead last. They
were averaging fourteen points a game. Yeah, you want to
talk about digging yourself a hole and then having to
dig out of it, you know, to increase.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Your scoring average by more than four points.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Over the course of a seventeen game season.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Over the course basically over over nine games, you had
to do some pretty good things.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
That's like the time possession stuff. You know, when you're
at the bottom of the league and it's already week eighth, Well,
if you could get the league average, wow, that would
be amazing, let alone getting near the top. That means
you're holding the ball thirty eight to forty minutes a
game time and time again. You know, it's hard to
change those trends.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Yeah, I mean, I look at that scoring over the
second half.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
They had twenty against the Saints, thirty against the Bengals,
twenty four against Colts, nineteen against the Falcons fourteen. Again,
both games against the Ravens were lower scoring. That kind
of skewed everything. He scored fourteen or twenty four against
the Panthers, thirteen against the Raiders. But if you remember
that night, it was like zero degrees.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
It was miserable.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Yeah, that was brutal.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I go, Yeah, walking walking from my car to the
stadium was ature, let alone playing a football game. And
it sixteen against the Ravens and then twenty eight against
the Browns. You compare that to what they did in
the in the first half of the season, where.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
They had they broked.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
They had more than twenty points in the first half
of the season once, wow, in the opener against the Bengals,
and the Bengals had to turn the ball over five
or six times for that to happen five times.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Right right, Yeah, I do think the scoring, I was
going to figure it out, but I was just I
was going to figure out how many points per game
they averaged those nine games.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
I think it was. I want to say it was
like twenty two.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I would say I remember a point or two over twenty.
I mean there's some that are under. And that was
also worse weather. You know. I mean I mentioned the
Vegas game in Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
That was also with Chris Boswell having the second having
the second worst season of his career.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Yeah, I mean, if you think about it, you could
easily add twelve more points for the season the kicker
or fifteen, which makes you go up one point per
game basically, you know, right, Yeah, And I have no
worries about pause, you know, no, I think he'll be
he'll be fine, He'll be back. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
But if you if you'd had a better start to
the season, that game against Buffalo was just a killer
where they scored three points. But if you have a
better start to the season, you know, again, everybody's gonna
look at you know, and I've already seen it. Well,
you know, the Steelers only averaged eighteen points a game
last year. Yeah, if you look at the season as
a whole, that's what they averaged. If you look at
(16:00):
the second half, I mean, if they have at the
twenty two points a game or so that they averaged,
put some almost that's like upper half of the league
right from last year scoring, right, I mean the Dolphins,
for all the offensive weapons that they have averaged twenty
three points a game.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
The Chargers much better at TUA, but still, Yeah, the
Chargers had Herbert for most of the season twenty three
points a game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers twenty one
point eight points per game.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Yeah, that's the league at this point. Like you said,
I mean, there's some alarming stats of how low scoring
was this past year. And again I keep going back
to the young offense, like it would shock me if
they're not noticeably better, even if they have three season
ending injuries, you know what I mean, as long as
(16:56):
they're not to the three worst guys you could have
them to. But you could lose Jones, Friarmouth, and Harris
and still score more this year than last year, oh,
without a doubt. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
I mean, just looking at this, Matt, these are the
teams that scored twenty five or more points per game.
And again I remind you, nobody scored average thirty points
per game. The Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles, the Cowboys,
the Lions, the forty nine Ers and the Bengals. That's it,
twenty five points per game. That was twenty five or more. Now,
(17:32):
all those teams averaged twenty six or more. Yeah, but
nobody averaged more than twenty nine point two. The Vikings
averaged twenty four point nine.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
They were just under that number.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
So still what harps with What sticks in my head
from mister Rooney is score more points, score more points,
more points. There's a lot of ways to do it.
You know, they didn't just go We'll invest the bazillion
dollars in four receivers, set and throw bombs left and right.
I mean, you can do it on the ground and
physicality and stopping the opponent and creating turnovers. So I
(18:08):
don't think either of us are implying that's.
Speaker 3 (18:12):
Just do what you Yeah, just do what you did,
and you know you'll score twenty five points a game
exactly exactly.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
But it is trending the right direction in terms of
players getting better what we saw their last eight games,
you know. I mean there's a lot of proof on
tape let alone. The teams you're going to play. I
absolutely think Kenny oll and the red zone offense will
be noticeably better.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
That's what I was just going to bring up.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Man.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
I mean, and Boss, yeah, bos is going to be better.
He's not. They're not going to miss I think eleven
or twelve field goals.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Like they did.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Last year, they were at fifty one point nine to
two percent scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That was
twenty second in the league.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Yeah, if you get that up around to the mid
to the mean the you know, the mid levels, fifty
five percent. Basically, you get that up to fifty five percent,
let's say, let's let's scare scoring three or four more
touchdowns over the course of the season.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Very twenty eight points.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Now, all of a sudden, you are averaging more than
twenty points per game, and you probably win an extra
game or two that you didn't win last year.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
And there was of course, as we've mentioned a couple times,
there's all right, well, what's third and eight on the
eighteen or fourth and eight on the eighteen. We'll kick
it boss, We'll get a three. That one didn't go ahead,
you know. Yeah, it's so scoring. I do believe will
be better. I mean, there's no question in my mind
about that. I don't think there'll be a top ten
scoring offense. But if they're fifteenth.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Ish, yeah, I mean, I mean, let's put this way. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
nine ten. The tenth best scoring offense in the league
last year, where the Jaguars at twenty three point eight
points per game.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
That's a little.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Bar of those top How many were playoff teams? I
bet it's eight or nine everybody but the Lions, and
they were right with the Steelers one off. You know,
if there were eight teams, they would have been number eight.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
I mean, if you're talking fifth to fifteenth best offense
in the league at scoring wise last year was the Packers.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
At twenty one point eight? Okay, I mean three points
per game?
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Three points per game, right right.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Gets you, you know, over the course of the season
gets you into that. And again they pretty much averaged
that over the second half of the season.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
No, no, they did. I Mean part of me's torn
a little on this conversation because I asked that question
about the playoff teams, because I still think the best
way to the playoffs was being a top ten offense.
I mean, I still think the league trends that way heavily.
Can this be a top ten offense? I don't know.
(20:55):
I mean it could be a top fifteen offense. Can
it be Chiefs, Bills Bengals level? Probably not this year.
And I'm not saying that doesn't mean they can't go
to the playoffs, you know, I mean, but can they
get there in two years? As a top eight offense
year after year after year for a year that I
absolutely believe, you know, I mean, you took you started
(21:18):
from nowhere and at the bye week you really didn't
get anywhere past that, and then you took a huge
step forward to top ten offense perennially year after year
in my opinion, from the bye week towards the end
of the season. Now, if you can just take a
normal size step forward, you're going to be in that neighborhood.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Yeah, you're going to be in the range. Here's the
other side of the coin of that, Matt. So, the
top ten scoring defenses had the forty nine Ers at
sixteen point three, the Bills at seventeen point nine, the
Ravens at eighteen point five, the Jets at eighteen point six,
Dallas at twenty point one, the Bengals at twenty point one,
(21:59):
Washington in Philadelphia at twenty point two, the Saints at
twenty point three, and then you had the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
At twenty point four.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Okay, So if your defense is better this year, if
you can get that, if I if I'm giving up
nineteen points per game, but I'm scoring twenty two or
twenty three. I'm probably winning a bunch of more games
than I'm losing.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
So thinking about the defense, I was in it on
that road too, Like, I think you look at two
ways in terms of them we've been creating points. Like
do we think their pass rush will create more sacks
than it did last year? I leaned towards yes, because
of what and all those years leading up to last
year they were super high in that category. Are they
(22:44):
gonna recover more fumbles? Yes, They're not gonna be thirty set. Yeah,
but they probably won't need the leading receptions either, you know.
Yeah year with turnovers.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
They ended up plus four for the season. They were
plus four with and they had twenty three total takeaways
thirty fumbles, yeah, twenty The Cowboys led the league with
thirty three takeaways, so they were ten off of that.
They were kind of league average there, and they were
(23:18):
league averaged despite leading the league in interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
And being last in fumble recoveries.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Like last and fumble recoveries, I mean, that's so the
Cowboys had seventeen fumble.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Recoveries, Yeah, but yours had like one or two or something.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
They had three three for the season, which the Jets
had for the Dolphins, the Rams and Titans had six.
If you if you double that to if you if
you get to seven or eight, which is more than
you know what you typically get, right, you're in much
better shape. You don't need to lead the league in interceptions.
(23:54):
It's nice to be able to do so.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Right, all right, and you probably won't again. I also
think I think that's creating turnovers. There's a randomness to it,
there's not a sustainability to it. But I do think
pass rush is the number one component. I think scheming
guys up is another component to it, but also more
(24:18):
so in terms of this fumbles versus interceptions conversation, I
think recovering fumbles is even more random than creating interceptions.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Well, I don't.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
I don't think it was a cool like so Alex
high Smith led the league in forced fumbles last year.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Right right, right, but they just didn't happen to fall.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
They just didn't happen to fall in the Steelers direction. TJ.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Watt has traditionally forced five or six fumbles a year himself.
So if you get ten forced fumbles out of your
two outside backers, and chances are you're going to recover
half of them. I mean, that's just the law of averages.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Yeah, they were. That's kind of mares going with it,
Like I would feel more confident with the team leading
the league in interceptions the year before and lasting fumbles
then the other way around, Like, I'm really not putting
faith in Oh, this team's a seventy percent fumble recovery
team that'll keep up next year. You know, that's more
(25:16):
random than boy, they're going to create turnovers via interceptions.
They may not. They're not going to lead the league of interceptions,
but I doubt they're bottom five and fumbles. Roll a
thirty two sided dice and they'll who knows where you're big?
You know? Yeah, so you had.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
The Cowboys had seventeen fumble recoveries. The Giants and Jaguars
both had thirteen.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Okay, that that led the league.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Why did the Giants overachieve? You know why? You know
why they get in the know.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
They only had six interceptions as a team on defense, but.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
They were the opposite which would scare me if I.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
Were, which was tied for last in the league. The
Jets and Raiders had six each. Well, I wouldn't feel
good about that.
Speaker 1 (25:57):
No, right, right, right. They don't have great secondary play,
they don't have ballhawks, they don't Minka, they're on the
pass rush, you know.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
So I just think that that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
I expect Kenny Pickett to take a step forward, or
I shouldn't even say a step forward, but to continue
down the path that he started down last year in yeah, yeah,
continuation of that. There's an expectation there that he's going
to be better.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
And something you kind of opened to the conversation with
last segment was people aren't talking about the Steelers as
a sleeper and there's not a lot of time to
buzz I bet when Warren Sharp's album comes or preview
comes out, and the Football Sider Preview comes out, and
the people really start to look at the numbers of
(26:44):
some of the weird things that happened to the Steelers.
Next year, all of a sudden, you're not going to
be able to find their betting odds at eight and
a half games. It's going to be nine or you
know what I mean, like like people are going to
catch on that. Wow, this team was a lot better
in the second half of the season than I remember you.
Speaker 3 (26:59):
Know, and oh, they play a similar schedule to what
they played in second half of.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Last season, and they're not going to recover three fumbles
over the course of the year, you know, like they'll
get to eight probable. Yeah, right, Well he's going to
get back to his average.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Yeah everything.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I mean, when you have when you have a track
record like that or or you know, in the case
of the fumble stuff, that's what the norm is like.
Its just things return to the norm. They just do
they return to the mean. Hey, you can subscribe now.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
To The Drive.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Every episode we do is available for you to download.
Subscribe today through the Steelers Mobile app, the iHeartRadio app,
or wherever you find your podcast. He is Matt Williams
and I am Dale Lowlly. You're listening to The Drive
here on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back with more
right after this
He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson on
your twenty four to seven home of the Black and
Gold SNR Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Welcome back to the Drive.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
I'm Dale LOLLI he is Matt Williamson, and well we
were talking there about the Steelers' expectations. So Matt, if
I told you, if I gave you these numbers in
the second half for Kenny Pickett, his eight games started,
he miss remember he missed the game against the Carolina Panthers,
a win down there where Mitch Trubisky actually played pretty well.
(00:35):
So after the bye week, Pickett had eight starts through
for fourteen and forty two yards, five touchdowns, one interception,
and a passer rating of eighty four.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Also ran for.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
One hundred and thirty nine yards in a touchdown. He
was very efficient in the second half of.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
The season, very efficient.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
And oh, by the way, the Steelers went what's six
and two in those starts by Kenny Pickett?
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Yes, yes, exactly. So is there a question there?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
I just said, you know, letting EVERR know, I just
letting every like I don't get no. Five times he
had one interception in the final eight games.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I know that's remarkable, and I'm searching for something right now.
But to even back that stuff up, like I think
we can all concede. His first eight games, he was
really unlucky with interception luck, you know, I mean, and
they were losing. And I'm not excusing him. He made
some bad throws. I mean, he made some bad decisions,
(01:41):
but he paid for them at a pretty remarkable rate.
Where we have mixed feelings about Pro football Focus, but
one of my favorite things they do is, you know,
turnover worthy plays. You know, when the ball leaves your hands,
you can't you know, it's not your fault. When they
get tipped or hits the receiver right in the hands,
go straight up in the air and somebody picks it off. Well,
(02:02):
he had only had that one turnover worthy play too.
It wasn't like, boy, he got really lucky. You should
have thrown five picks, but he only threw one, you know,
Like that's not the way that worked.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Yeah, And so I just look at what Picket did
last year again, the fourth quarter comebacks, the game winning drives.
I look at what he did, and I think, Okay,
that has a chance to be pretty good. I also
look at Nause Harris's second half of the season final
(02:34):
nine games of the year after post by Nause, Harris
nine games, one hundred and sixty four carries, six hundred
and seventy three yards, six touchdowns, seventeen catches with another touchdown.
He averaged in the second half of last year eighteen
carries for seventy five yards and also averaged two catches
(02:58):
per game for another thirteen yard, so basically averaged right
around ninety yards to ninety total yards per game.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
That was just Naujie Harris.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
That doesn't factor what Jalen Warren did in the second
half of the season as well. This is a team
that wants to run the folly. I think they found
the formula last year. Oh I do too, and they
found it. I mean, if you look at who they
played in the second half of that season, New Orleans, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina,
(03:32):
the Raiders, Baltimore, and Cleveland, that stretch is very comparable
to what this to who they are playing this year.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
As By the way, the second half of the season's
schedule was earlier. There was easier than the first half schedule,
but it wasn't a cakewalk. I mean you still got
the Bengals and Ravens. I mean it was not a
ridiculous you know little sisters of the poor.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yeah, everybody's pretending like, oh, they didn't play anybody down
the stretch. They play the Ravens twice, they played the Bengals.
The Saints were not an awful team, you know that.
So it's not like they didn't play anybody, you know,
they but this is that's who their schedule is this year.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
I mean that's the teams are playing. I mean that's
basically what's on there, right.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
I mean I look at that first half of the schedule. Cincinnati,
the Patriots, the Browns in Cleveland on a short week,
the Jets, the Bills, the Buccaneers, Miami at Philadelphia, Like
five of those are road games, and you played a
murderer's row of teams.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
H No. The one thing I was looking for on
on Pickett too, and finally my computer was being slow,
is I looked up EPA for all quarterbacks from week
nine on. He was eleven. I mean he was right
behind to a right in front of Josh Allen, you know,
I mean he's in the Dak Prescott to uh Alan
(04:58):
Daniel Jones neighborhood for the second and half of the season.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
So if he does that right, right, he does that,
you're in great shape. Again.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
I saw something about somebody talking about the Lions. They
were writing about the Lions as a team that's gonna
you know ride what it did. Yeah, they went in
their last eight games last year, they went six and
six and two the last nine games last year, the
Steelers went seven and two.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Yeah, it just so happens. I'm looking at it. Golf
was number one on that list. Actually, second half of
the season EPA, right, I mean he was on fire,
he played really well. I mean, the Lions could be good.
I'm not you know, I think they I think they
will be good.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
I'm picked the win that division.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Yeah, I don't think the conversation is let's kill the Lions.
The Steelers are better Lions. But to me, there are
some similarities in that if there were one more playoff spot,
there would have been the Lions and Steelers, you know,
like they were the just inmus teams last year. But
there's no similarities in that, and I like what both
teams are doing front office wise, is how they're building
(06:00):
their teams, you know, line of scrimmage stuff like that.
But everyone's buzzing about the Lions. No one's really buzzing
about the Steelers, and this stuff matters. The Steelers have
won a few more playoff games than the Lions in
the last fifty years. You know what I mean, Right,
one of these organizations wins and one doesn't.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah, you know the other part of the equation with that.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
In that final of those the two losses they had
in the final nine games, they lost by seven to Cincinnati.
They lost by two to Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, if I.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
When I look at that schedule, a three point loss
to the Patriots, a four point loss to the Jets,
a six point loss down in Miami where they were
throwing into the end zone twice in the final four minutes.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Yeah, with the rookie quarterback.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
Yeah, they got blown out. You know, the Browns beat
them by ten up there in that short week.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
The Bills blew.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Them out, the Eagles blew them out. But those two
teams did that to a lot of teams last.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Year in Buffalo, in Philly. Yeah, and they were they
were two of the best four teams in the league.
I mean, I don't think there's a lot of argument
there with Kansas City and San Francisco. Maybe the Bengals
are in that conversation, but they're two top five teams
without what with a rookie quarterback, and they're better than you.
(07:24):
You know, and I'm a big point differential guy, but
those two games really killed that. You know, when you
look at things like that Miami game that was winnable,
the New England game that was winnable, and back to
the schedule slightly. If their AFC opponents last year kept
them out of the playoffs, their their conference record was
(07:45):
really rough on them. Yeah, because the Patriot game where
you made this point Friday, their conference games that aren't
in the AFC North are as sweet as could be.
You know, like I'd be shocked if the if if
a tie breaker comes down to conference you know record
that they don't get in.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Yeah, I just I just look at that.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
That schedule means so much, and we knew going into
the schedule you know who they played, but when you
play them is so much. I mean, you know, the
lack of of the short road weeks and.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Things of that. Like again, I'll look at that.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Okay, So they played Cleveland on a Thursday night after
playing the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Right, that's a tough order, and that's a.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Tough order to go up to go to you know,
hop on the bus and drive to Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
It's really difficult to do.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yeah, still physically reeling from the week before and no
practices and right now you're the host of those two games.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
It's a big difference, huge difference. And you're that you're
at home.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
You know that that week before that, I think one
of those one of those Thursday night games that they
have that the team that they play, I can't remember
which one it is is on the road the week before.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
It might be the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
I didn't think either was, but I oh, maybe I'm wrong, okay,
but either way, Yeah, it's just again, I think the expectation,
like there's a there's a feeling out there, Well.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
You gotta again, you've got to be able to go
out and outscore the opponent or you gotta get to score.
You gotta score thirty points. No you don't, No, I'm
with you on that, like that, you have to score
one more point than your opponent that week.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Again, I look back, nobody in the NFL, not a
single team average thirty points per game last year.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Yeah, do you think scoring will be up? I mean,
I know that's a real sidebar. It was so down.
I wonder if you'll get rebound a.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Little bit of Usually there's some kind of adjustment made
by the league, whether they go back to you know, hey,
let's not call holding again, or something like.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
That some of the rest stuff.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yeah, but if that's the case, I think it benefits
to stee Deelers as much as it does anybody else.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Okay, we're not gonna call hold.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Okay, you know, yeah, your guys.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
You know, if you've got guys that can win off
the edge, which they do, they're gonna win for whether
they're calling holding or not.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
H like is as little as they called holding?
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Was that two years ago in twenty Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
The twenty twenty or twenty twenty one Steelers still led
the league of sacks that year, Steelers led the league
in sacks that year, watt led the league and individual sacks.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
M hm. That was pre Chiefs like leads either.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yeah, and that was the year they lost Bud Yeah, yeah,
you're right, you know he was out, he was missed
half the season.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Well, high Smith right now is equal to what Bud
was better.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
But yeah, right, I mean I think he's better.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, so okay, you don't want to call hold, you
don't you want to make holding legal again?
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Go ahead.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Yeah, they still got guys that are going to get right,
I mean, pickingtle benefit and everybody will benefit, right, Yeah,
I mean get your kind of equal for everybody. I
think it was a side note. I think that the
league will want scoring to go up. They also would
think so, yeah, sixty nine different quarterbacks starting games either,
well there's.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
That too, There is certainly that.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
But yeah, I mean I just I look at you know,
the league as a whole, like so people were going
to look at the Steelers season as a whole from
last year as well. You know, they only average eighteen
points a game. You can't look at I firmly believe
you can't look at their season like that. I almost
looked like I look at it like they played two
(11:36):
different seasons last.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Year, and the Lions qualify as well. I mean, there's
some other teams out there similar and you can look
at the other way too sometimes. You know, the Ravens
are a really good example. Off top of oh, absolutely, yeah,
second half of the season was miserable. First half of
the season was great, but if you can blame injuries,
that's a little different. Where the Steelers, it's like, well
(11:59):
they found them themselves. They got better. Yes, they played
easier teams, but I also think the Week thirteen team,
the Week thirteen Steelers beats the Week three Steelers by
fourteen points, you know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, not only that, but the Week thirteen Steelers beat
the Patriots at home, and the Jets and the Jets
and they win. They win at least one of those games. Yeah,
but that way, maybe you don't win them all, but
you win at least one of them.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
I mean, everyone knows. I'm into some of the side
stats and metrics and whatnot. Like their time of possession
was so bad, you know, for the first month, six weeks,
maybe even the full half of the season, and then
they end up like almost leaving the league in time
of possession after starting in an unbelievably deep hooll you know,
(12:48):
Like do you know how much that helps Cam Hayward
and Najie Harris and James Daniels, you know what I mean?
Like those type of things, like they were always on
the field to start the year. Defense that's what.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
I'm looking for. Were like, that's the carryover I'm looking.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
For me too, right, Like that sustainable that travels.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Yeah, because like so you know people are gonna look
at it. Well, the Steelers average eighteen point one points
per game last year. I can remember writing at mid
season looking like they were they were dead last. They
were averaging fourteen points a game. Yeah, you want to
talk about digging yourself a hole and then having to
dig out of it, you know, to increase.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Your scoring average by more than four points.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
Over the course of a seventeen game season.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Over the course basically over over nine games, you had
to do some pretty good things.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
That's like the time possession stuff. You know, when you're
at the bottom of the league and it's already week eighth, Well,
if you could get the league average, wow, that would
be amazing, let alone getting near the top. That means
you're holding the ball thirty eight to forty minutes a
game time and time again. You know, it's hard to
change those trends.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Yeah, I mean, I look at that scoring over the
second half.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
They had twenty against the Saints, thirty against the Bengals,
twenty four against Colts, nineteen against the Falcons fourteen. Again,
both games against the Ravens were lower scoring. That kind
of skewed everything. He scored fourteen or twenty four against
the Panthers, thirteen against the Raiders. But if you remember
that night, it was like zero degrees.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
It was miserable.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Yeah, that was brutal.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
I go, Yeah, walking walking from my car to the
stadium was ature, let alone playing a football game. And
it sixteen against the Ravens and then twenty eight against
the Browns. You compare that to what they did in
the in the first half of the season, where.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
They had they broked.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
They had more than twenty points in the first half
of the season once, wow, in the opener against the Bengals,
and the Bengals had to turn the ball over five
or six times for that to happen five times.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Right right, Yeah, I do think the scoring, I was
going to figure it out, but I was just I
was going to figure out how many points per game
they averaged those nine games.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
I think it was. I want to say it was
like twenty two.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
I would say I remember a point or two over twenty.
I mean there's some that are under. And that was
also worse weather. You know. I mean I mentioned the
Vegas game in Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
That was also with Chris Boswell having the second having
the second worst season of his career.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
Yeah, I mean, if you think about it, you could
easily add twelve more points for the season the kicker
or fifteen, which makes you go up one point per
game basically, you know, right, Yeah, And I have no
worries about pause, you know, no, I think he'll be
he'll be fine, He'll be back. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
But if you if you'd had a better start to
the season, that game against Buffalo was just a killer
where they scored three points. But if you have a
better start to the season, you know, again, everybody's gonna
look at you know, and I've already seen it. Well,
you know, the Steelers only averaged eighteen points a game
last year. Yeah, if you look at the season as
a whole, that's what they averaged. If you look at
(16:00):
the second half, I mean, if they have at the
twenty two points a game or so that they averaged,
put some almost that's like upper half of the league
right from last year scoring, right, I mean the Dolphins,
for all the offensive weapons that they have averaged twenty
three points a game.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
The Chargers much better at TUA, but still, Yeah, the
Chargers had Herbert for most of the season twenty three
points a game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers twenty one
point eight points per game.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Yeah, that's the league at this point. Like you said,
I mean, there's some alarming stats of how low scoring
was this past year. And again I keep going back
to the young offense, like it would shock me if
they're not noticeably better, even if they have three season
ending injuries, you know what I mean, as long as
(16:56):
they're not to the three worst guys you could have
them to. But you could lose Jones, Friarmouth, and Harris
and still score more this year than last year, oh,
without a doubt. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
I mean, just looking at this, Matt, these are the
teams that scored twenty five or more points per game.
And again I remind you, nobody scored average thirty points
per game. The Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles, the Cowboys,
the Lions, the forty nine Ers and the Bengals. That's it,
twenty five points per game. That was twenty five or more. Now,
(17:32):
all those teams averaged twenty six or more. Yeah, but
nobody averaged more than twenty nine point two. The Vikings
averaged twenty four point nine.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
They were just under that number.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
So still what harps with What sticks in my head
from mister Rooney is score more points, score more points,
more points. There's a lot of ways to do it.
You know, they didn't just go We'll invest the bazillion
dollars in four receivers, set and throw bombs left and right.
I mean, you can do it on the ground and
physicality and stopping the opponent and creating turnovers. So I
(18:08):
don't think either of us are implying that's.
Speaker 3 (18:12):
Just do what you Yeah, just do what you did,
and you know you'll score twenty five points a game
exactly exactly.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
But it is trending the right direction in terms of
players getting better what we saw their last eight games,
you know. I mean there's a lot of proof on
tape let alone. The teams you're going to play. I
absolutely think Kenny oll and the red zone offense will
be noticeably better.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
That's what I was just going to bring up.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Man.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
I mean, and Boss, yeah, bos is going to be better.
He's not. They're not going to miss I think eleven
or twelve field goals.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Like they did.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Last year, they were at fifty one point nine to
two percent scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That was
twenty second in the league.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Yeah, if you get that up around to the mid
to the mean the you know, the mid levels, fifty
five percent. Basically, you get that up to fifty five percent,
let's say, let's let's scare scoring three or four more
touchdowns over the course of the season.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Very twenty eight points.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Now, all of a sudden, you are averaging more than
twenty points per game, and you probably win an extra
game or two that you didn't win last year.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
And there was of course, as we've mentioned a couple times,
there's all right, well, what's third and eight on the
eighteen or fourth and eight on the eighteen. We'll kick
it boss, We'll get a three. That one didn't go ahead,
you know. Yeah, it's so scoring. I do believe will
be better. I mean, there's no question in my mind
about that. I don't think there'll be a top ten
scoring offense. But if they're fifteenth.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
Ish, yeah, I mean, I mean, let's put this way. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
nine ten. The tenth best scoring offense in the league
last year, where the Jaguars at twenty three point eight
points per game.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
That's a little.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Bar of those top How many were playoff teams? I
bet it's eight or nine everybody but the Lions, and
they were right with the Steelers one off. You know,
if there were eight teams, they would have been number eight.
Speaker 3 (20:11):
I mean, if you're talking fifth to fifteenth best offense
in the league at scoring wise last year was the Packers.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
At twenty one point eight? Okay, I mean three points
per game?
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Three points per game, right right.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
Gets you, you know, over the course of the season
gets you into that. And again they pretty much averaged
that over the second half of the season.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
No, no, they did. I Mean part of me's torn
a little on this conversation because I asked that question
about the playoff teams, because I still think the best
way to the playoffs was being a top ten offense.
I mean, I still think the league trends that way heavily.
Can this be a top ten offense? I don't know.
(20:55):
I mean it could be a top fifteen offense. Can
it be Chiefs, Bills Bengals level? Probably not this year.
And I'm not saying that doesn't mean they can't go
to the playoffs, you know, I mean, but can they
get there in two years? As a top eight offense
year after year after year for a year that I
absolutely believe, you know, I mean, you took you started
(21:18):
from nowhere and at the bye week you really didn't
get anywhere past that, and then you took a huge
step forward to top ten offense perennially year after year
in my opinion, from the bye week towards the end
of the season. Now, if you can just take a
normal size step forward, you're going to be in that neighborhood.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
Yeah, you're going to be in the range. Here's the
other side of the coin of that, Matt. So, the
top ten scoring defenses had the forty nine Ers at
sixteen point three, the Bills at seventeen point nine, the
Ravens at eighteen point five, the Jets at eighteen point six,
Dallas at twenty point one, the Bengals at twenty point one,
(21:59):
Washington in Philadelphia at twenty point two, the Saints at
twenty point three, and then you had the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (22:05):
At twenty point four.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Okay, So if your defense is better this year, if
you can get that, if I if I'm giving up
nineteen points per game, but I'm scoring twenty two or
twenty three. I'm probably winning a bunch of more games
than I'm losing.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
So thinking about the defense, I was in it on
that road too, Like, I think you look at two
ways in terms of them we've been creating points. Like
do we think their pass rush will create more sacks
than it did last year? I leaned towards yes, because
of what and all those years leading up to last
year they were super high in that category. Are they
(22:44):
gonna recover more fumbles? Yes, They're not gonna be thirty set. Yeah,
but they probably won't need the leading receptions either, you know.
Yeah year with turnovers.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
They ended up plus four for the season. They were
plus four with and they had twenty three total takeaways
thirty fumbles, yeah, twenty The Cowboys led the league with
thirty three takeaways, so they were ten off of that.
They were kind of league average there, and they were
(23:18):
league averaged despite leading the league in interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
And being last in fumble recoveries.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
Like last and fumble recoveries, I mean, that's so the
Cowboys had seventeen fumble.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Recoveries, Yeah, but yours had like one or two or something.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
They had three three for the season, which the Jets
had for the Dolphins, the Rams and Titans had six.
If you if you double that to if you if
you get to seven or eight, which is more than
you know what you typically get, right, you're in much
better shape. You don't need to lead the league in interceptions.
(23:54):
It's nice to be able to do so.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Right, all right, and you probably won't again. I also
think I think that's creating turnovers. There's a randomness to it,
there's not a sustainability to it. But I do think
pass rush is the number one component. I think scheming
guys up is another component to it, but also more
(24:18):
so in terms of this fumbles versus interceptions conversation, I
think recovering fumbles is even more random than creating interceptions.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Well, I don't.
Speaker 3 (24:28):
I don't think it was a cool like so Alex
high Smith led the league in forced fumbles last year.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Right right, right, but they just didn't happen to fall.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
They just didn't happen to fall in the Steelers direction. TJ.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Watt has traditionally forced five or six fumbles a year himself.
So if you get ten forced fumbles out of your
two outside backers, and chances are you're going to recover
half of them. I mean, that's just the law of averages.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Yeah, they were. That's kind of mares going with it,
Like I would feel more confident with the team leading
the league in interceptions the year before and lasting fumbles
then the other way around, Like, I'm really not putting
faith in Oh, this team's a seventy percent fumble recovery
team that'll keep up next year. You know, that's more
(25:16):
random than boy, they're going to create turnovers via interceptions.
They may not. They're not going to lead the league of interceptions,
but I doubt they're bottom five and fumbles. Roll a
thirty two sided dice and they'll who knows where you're big?
You know? Yeah, so you had.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
The Cowboys had seventeen fumble recoveries. The Giants and Jaguars
both had thirteen.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Okay, that that led the league.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
Why did the Giants overachieve? You know why? You know
why they get in the know.
Speaker 3 (25:45):
They only had six interceptions as a team on defense, but.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
They were the opposite which would scare me if I.
Speaker 3 (25:52):
Were, which was tied for last in the league. The
Jets and Raiders had six each. Well, I wouldn't feel
good about that.
Speaker 1 (25:57):
No, right, right, right. They don't have great secondary play,
they don't have ballhawks, they don't Minka, they're on the
pass rush, you know.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
So I just think that that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
I expect Kenny Pickett to take a step forward, or
I shouldn't even say a step forward, but to continue
down the path that he started down last year in yeah, yeah,
continuation of that. There's an expectation there that he's going
to be better.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
And something you kind of opened to the conversation with
last segment was people aren't talking about the Steelers as
a sleeper and there's not a lot of time to
buzz I bet when Warren Sharp's album comes or preview
comes out, and the Football Sider Preview comes out, and
the people really start to look at the numbers of
(26:44):
some of the weird things that happened to the Steelers.
Next year, all of a sudden, you're not going to
be able to find their betting odds at eight and
a half games. It's going to be nine or you
know what I mean, like like people are going to
catch on that. Wow, this team was a lot better
in the second half of the season than I remember you.
Speaker 3 (26:59):
Know, and oh, they play a similar schedule to what
they played in second half of.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Last season, and they're not going to recover three fumbles
over the course of the year, you know, like they'll
get to eight probable. Yeah, right, Well he's going to
get back to his average.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Yeah everything.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I mean, when you have when you have a track
record like that or or you know, in the case
of the fumble stuff, that's what the norm is like.
Its just things return to the norm. They just do
they return to the mean. Hey, you can subscribe now.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
To The Drive.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
Every episode we do is available for you to download.
Subscribe today through the Steelers Mobile app, the iHeartRadio app,
or wherever you find your podcast. He is Matt Williams
and I am Dale Lowlly. You're listening to The Drive
here on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back with more
right after this
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