May 10, 2023 • 31 mins
Matt and Dale review and comment on ESPN NFL analyst Mike Clay's projections for NFL teams, specifically that regarding the Steelers.
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson show
on your twenty four to seven home of the Black
and Gold Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
I am Dale LOLLI, he is Matt Williamson, and this
is the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. And Matt Mike
Clay puts out this is largely through a fantasy football perspective,
but he puts out his projections. It's a thing on
ESPN dot com here, So I wanted to dig into
this a little bit. And this also ties in with
(00:40):
the scheduling and all the other stuff. We've talked a
little bit about this over the last few shows that
we've done. But he has projections here I want I
want you to I'm going to give you his projections
for these players for the Steelers, and you tell me
if that would be on par with what you think
or if that would be a disappointment.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
For that player.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
So for Kenny Pickett, he has fifteen games this year. Okay,
I assume you never give anyone seventeen Probably not, yeah, yeah,
I mean okay, So fifteen games completes three hundred and
twenty three out of five hundred and one passes. So
about sixty four percent of my UPG math sixty four
(01:23):
and a half percent, give or take three thousand, four
hundred and fifty six passing yards, twenty touchdown passes, twelve interceptions.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Twenty to twelve. Yeah, I don't think it's horrible. I mean,
I think they'll be run heavy. I think the defense
will allow them to be run heavy. I think that
they'll run the ball well. Did I'll still go over
on touchdowns and yardage, but I don't think these are
(01:56):
crazy talk.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
No, I think that's a nice progression. Yeah, you know
for the young quarterback. He also has him for two
hundred and sixty eight rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns,
so twenty three total touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I'll buy that. I may even go slightly over on
the rushing yards.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I think, I think, I think, yeah, I think he
finishes with more rushing yards than that to sixty eight.
I mean you're talking that's only that's not even twenty
yards rushing per game.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Right, I mean he said fifteen games. I mean if
you assuming if he really does play seventeen, he'll be
maybe a hundred yards more than that. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
So, and then you look look at the projections for
Mitch Trubisky. Obviously, if Pickett plays fifteen games, he's got
two games for Mitch Trubisky forty five of sixty nine
for four hundred and forty three yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions,
twenty seven rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Seems like quality backup numbers, which I think he is
so all told.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
You're looking at just under four thousand passing yards and
twenty three touchdown passes for the Steelers twenty three.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Did you say, yeah, I think I'll go over on
total passing yards.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Yeah, that's for seventeen games. At four thousand, you're just
looking at it just a little over two hundred yards
passing per game. I think they I think they probably
do go over that a little bit.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I don't think they'll have age
three hundred dards game or two seventy five.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Or the three point fifty that Lamar wants to.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
He's threw over two thousand more than these guys. Right.
The passing touchdowns I'm in on though, because I think
there'll be a lot of plunge touchdowns. I like that
he gave pick at three rushing touchdowns. I could see
Nausea getting the double digits Warren's gonna get a few,
you know, Connor Hayward making a shovel pass or something
(03:57):
goofy like I could see them pounding the ball in
from in within the five.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Well we say that and listen to these rushing totals. Okay,
So for Najia Harris, he has First of all, he
only has him playing fourteen games.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
I would bet running backs you have to do that.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
He probably, I hear you, but he is at I
mean he plays every game.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
I no, I now.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Uh So in four fourteen games, he has him for
two hundred and fifty three carries, one thousand and sixteen yards,
six rushing touchdowns, forty three catches for two hundred and
seventy six yards and two more scores.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
I'm going over on that. Would you be happy with
forty three catches up from last year?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, for fourteen games, that's about three per game.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, that part I thought was encouraging, and I'm hoping
that's the case and we hard up on that a lot.
I'll definitely take over six rushing touchdowns, yeah, especially play
seventeen games. Of course, he doesn't do yards per carry
or any of that stuff. Said, Well, that's about four
yards per carry, Yeah, yeah, which is he's never going
(05:15):
to be a high yards per carry guy in my opinion.
I mean he's ever going to be five. No, I mean,
could he be four to two this year with better blocking? Certain? Yeah? Sure?
You know.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
For Jlem Warren, ninety four carries for four hundred and
eighteen yards, twenty six catches, one hundred and ninety yards
in a touchdown. He hasn't scored two rushing touchdowns. I
like the twenty six catches. I mean, if you get
seventy catches from your top two backs, give or take, yeah,
I think that's moving the football efficiently.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
And both those guys are good at it.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, No, for sure. For Anthony McFarland, who's right now
is his number three, thirty four carries one hundred and
forty six yards. That's a nice average, one touchdown, six
catches for another forty four yards.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
It sounds reasonable. I mean again, none of these will
work that way because someone will get hurt and McFarlane
will be active for twelve games as the two, or
he won't make the team or I mean, like right, right,
But I mean if you told me that's what he
would do, and that's the way he'd be used.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
That adds up perfectly. You know, some of these national
guys look at a team and don't think that way.
And I think that he has the running back touches
and balance pretty well hit the thing that he doesn't
have to me. So the overall running back total for
rushing yards here. Now he does have another obviously with
Pickett the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks having about three hundred rushing
(06:46):
yards and he has about one hundred rushing yards for
the wide receivers. For the running backs themselves, three hundred
and ninety carries for one thousand, six hundred and seventeen yards,
ten touchdowns, seventy seven catches five hundred and twenty four yards,
and another three touchdowns. Unless we forget this team averaged
(07:09):
one hundred and fifty yards rushing per game in the
second half of last year.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
See that's where I was going to like. That gets
to six seventeen from the running backs. Let's just call
it two thousand when you throw in quarterback and wide
receiver rushes. Right, that's under one hundred and eighteen rushing
yards per game, right total as a team, I think
they're closer to one thirty.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Yeah, I think I think they run for about twenty
two hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Yeah, I agree, Yeah, right, another way of putting it.
I think the run blocking will be better. I do too.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
And I think that they've I think they've Everything that
they've done this offseason is screaming we're going to run
the football.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Yes, yes, so we're going. They showed last year they
didn't get away from it, you know, I mean, they certainly,
and it was a recipe. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll go
over on that. I mean, one thing that hurts them
is I don't think I don't see a whole lot
of seventy yard runs.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, I mean, if they if you see Anthony McFarland
out there a little bit more and Jalen Warren has
some juice, I think there's there's a little more. Put
it this way, replacing it Benny Snell with Anthony McFarland's
just if that's what if that's what happens. If even
if it's just a let's say three carries per game,
(08:30):
but carries a year fifty carry, he's gonna break something.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Mm hmm. Agreed. But I'll lead back or.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Right now, you're not gonna You're not gonna have a
bunch of them, right, right, But Jalen Warren has some
juice there as well.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He does, so I could see if.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
You get more carries from Warren, you get more carries
from McFarland.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
That's going to.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Give you more opportunity I think to break off some
longer runs.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
But that's my point there. No, that's fair.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
A wide receiver or Deonta A. Johnson one hundred and
twenty seven targets, seventy nine catches for nine hundred and
seventy one yards, four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I'm glad didn't give him zero touchdowns. That's in fifteen games.
By the way, I think he's a thousand yard receiver though,
Well he's just under that.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
If he plays all seventeen, right, then you know the
numbers extrapolate. If you do that over seventeen games, it's
probably about ninety catches for.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
You know, eleven hundred yards, right, Okay, I guess I'll
react to this more once we talk about the other
receivers and see how he divvys up the targets and
touchdowns and whatnot. Yeah, that's the interesting way to thing
to look at. Yeah, I still think Johnson's going to
be the target leader.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, I do too, he's your chain mover. Yeah, George Pickens,
same thing. Fifteen games, which seems to be about.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
The norm by what you do for receivers. Ye.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Yeah, ninety nine targets, sixty two catches for eight hundred
and five yards and four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
My initial response is I'll take over on four touchdowns. Yeah.
I don't know that I would with DJ, you know,
with you with Johnson, but I definitely would with Pickens.
I bet his I'm trying to do math and talk here,
but I would bet yards per catch Pickens is higher
than Johnson. Yeah, yeah, and he is. I can do
(10:39):
that real quick here. Eight oh five divided by sixty.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Two is it's about thirteen yards a catch.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
And Johnson is at twelve to two twelve three. So
I bet that discrepancy's a little wider, though than one
yard difference per catch. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
But would you be happy if Pickens gets basically one
hundre targets?
Speaker 1 (11:03):
I wouldn't be thrilled with under eighteen hundred yards between
the two of them. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Well, I remember now we're talking that he has them
both playing fifteen games.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I I know, right, because one of them get hurt
week one and you get nothing. I mean, right, kind
of projections are weird, you know, right. I mean you've
heard my argument about over unders, like you under you
bet every under, I bet you win because who plays
the projected number of games? Right? I might?
Speaker 2 (11:35):
I might go over with pickings on maybe across the board.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Yeah, does he have Robinson or go deeper?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, he goes all the way through. Oh okay for Robinson.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
He's got him playing fourteen games, fifty five targets, thirty
six catches for three hundred and sixty six yards, and
three touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
That sounds minuscule. I mean, Alan Robinson was a pro
bowler and a top ten receiver and you only get
three hundred and sixty six yards out of the guy.
But I don't think that's gonna I think there's gonna
be some a lot of them be on third downs,
you know. I like that he got three touchdowns. You know,
slant in the middle of the field, move the chains.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Well, I mean he's we've already established he gets seventy
seven catches for five hundred and twenty four yards to
the running backs.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Yeah, you know, the you've only the pie is only
so big. That's what I say, Like, when you start
adding up projections, it can't add up to six thousand
passing yards.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Like that's the one nice thing about this is everything
adds up.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yeah, yea, yeah, yeah, So I mean he's just many
times and yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
He probably ran it through a computer, you know all
that stuff.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Yeah. Yeah, Like if he told me today, well, Alan
Robinson of more than three hundred and sixty six receiving
yards next year, I would say yes. But everyone's always
tempted to say the over It's real easy to envision it.
One game with eighty yards, a couple with forty before
you know you're there. Yeah, but that's not how projection.
His work.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
For Calvin Austin has him playing fifteen games twenty one targets,
fourteen for one fifty nine in a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
Okay, I mean twenty one targets. To be is logical.
There's a chance he gets under that, you know, I mean,
just to be a realist. Yeah, but that one touchdown
might be an eighty yard er, right right.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Gunnerol Chevsky six catches seventy six yards, and then Miles
Boyce in three catches thirty eight yards.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
He didn't do Miller though he did not do Miller. Okay,
fair enough, I don't have Gunner makes team.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, well, somebody's gotta return at tight end position. And
this is the other part of the equation here for this.
So basically he has Firemouth as their number three target guy.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
I agree with that. I think he out targets Robinson.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Yeah, he has him with eighty eight targets, sixty catches
for six hundred and fifty yards, and four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
He exceeded that. If you just look at his healthy games.
Wasn't there two games that he had the foot that
he did like very little and yeah, yeah, napcount was
really low. I think it was two games. But if
you look at the twelve, thirteen to fourteen whatever, it
was healthy games. His yards for route run targets, they
weren't Chelsea level, but they weren't far off. He weren't
(14:34):
far off. Yeah, I'm going to put him that.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
It puts him because he did it, did this for
the whole league. So that would put him in terms
of Fantasy PPR tight end position at number eight, number
eight in the league.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Like who's you look at the list, like who's six,
It doesn't it doesn't say, yeah, Okay, this is just
probably be the eighth tight end drafted whenever we do
fantasy stuff. I mean, he'll go behind like godd Or
and Hawk, but I think I'll take the over on
those projections.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Yeah, I think if he gets eighty eight targets. First
of all, I think if he gets eighty eight targets,
he catches more than sixty of them.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I mean, I'm not trying to like make a big splash,
but I thought he was our best offensive player last
year and looked like a star in the making.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Yeah, Connor Hayward. He lists Connor Hayward as a tight end,
which he shouldn't be, but he dies still Listen here,
he has him twenty two targets, fifteen catches, one hundred
and fifty seven yards in one touchdown. He also has
him for four carries for fifteen yards. He should realistically
(15:42):
be listed with the running backs here.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
He probably gets more than four carries. You think he
catches fifteen balls next year? Yeah, I think so. I
mean Austin's at fourteen, who has more catches next year? Yeah?
About saying yeah, not the same doesn't sound like much
and it isn't, But that's still you know, to a game.
That's a contributor.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Darnell Washington sixteen targets, eleven catches for one hundred and
nineteen yards and one touchdown.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
I think he's gonna throwing the ball more than sixteen times.
We'll see, Yeah, But I mean all these things are
easy to say over. I'm gonna get that. I'm not
giving Mike a hard time. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
And then Zach Gentry five targets, four catches, thirty four
yards fair enough.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
I mean his will go his will go down from
last year. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
So if we look at the wide receiver production, we
forgot to do that for their for their wide receiver
room twenty or two hundred catches on three hundred and
eighteen targets, two four hundred and fourteen yards, thirteen touchdown catches.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
The touchdown catches will be way up, way up. How
many way with the guardage aet.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Twenty four hundred, just over twenty four hundred.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Seems realistic. Yeah. For the tight end.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
For the tight end position, one hundred and thirty two
total targets, ninety catches, nine hundred and sixty one yards,
and six touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
That would be near the top of the league. Ninety
tight end catches. Yeah, I think you'd take that. Yeah,
I mean, and it could be big.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I mean when we're talking, when we're rolling through those,
you're like, well, I think Fiar Moose is better than that.
I think Washington is better than Could they get more
than ninety catches out of their tight end room?
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, I mean if they really fifty percent of their
snaps in twelve personnel or more, I mean they anyway
snaps Gentry played after the Claypool trade, it was a lot. Yeah.
I don't know if they'll were far away from those numbers. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
The other interesting thing about that we can we can
look at. He has fantasy numbers here for the defense
as well. I'll give you some numbers here on some guys.
He has Alex high Smith with the best projections for
sack totals for the Steelers next year at ten point eight.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
I can't agree with that. T J. Watt comes in
at ten point four. I mean, I think double digit
sacks for high Smith is attainable and a reasonable projection,
and but to have him out sacked TJ sounds a
little crazy.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
There must be Well, he has a snap count here
for them as well, so he has high high Smith
playing nine hundred and fifty snaps. What playing nine oh six.
That's basically a game's.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Word for those odds. Yeah, I'll take TJ over ten
point four.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
I know that.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Yeah. Yeah. Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
He has Cam Hayward at seven hundred and eighty eight
snaps and having seventy tackles and six sacks.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
I hope his snap numbers go down a little bit,
so his back of football card production might go down
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Let's put it so, the guy who plays the most
defensive snaps according to plays projections is Mika Fitzpatrick with
one and twenty.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Five, which is who I would pick as well.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Yeah, pretty much. Assume that's just about every defensive snap.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Yeah yeah, I mean secondary guys don't get beat up
as much. They play more snaps as in general, there's
not a linebacker that's Fred Warner on this team that
would be in that competition. The corners are still up
in the air while they're playing time we'll get the
beat out, so it'd have to be making.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Yeah, Ogan Joby has six hundred and forty seven snaps,
two point six sacks, forty eight tackles.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Okay, I'd hope for a little more, but that doesn't
sound unrealistic.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, looking at the defensive line as a whole, he
has that group coming out of the season with twelve
and a half sacks and.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
He's not counting Watton obviously.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
No their edge for the edge he's got the Hes
got their edge rushers at twenty three point eight sacks.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
I'd go over that. I'd go over that. I'd go
over the collective defensive front number.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah, overall that would be uh thirty five thirty six
sacks basically out of your defensive front.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
I'll take the over I'm going over on that. So
sack question for you, if I gave you TJ or
the field to lead the Steelers in sacks this year,
which obviously is a durability question, and Ken easily answered,
which side would you put here? I'll take TJ.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
I would get it because he could do it in
twelve Yeah, right. You know, looking at that linebacker position,
we've talked a lot about that. He has Cole Holkom
playing nine hundred and seventeen snaps, one hundred and thirty
four tackles, one point eight sacks, point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I mean, I think he projects as certainly the snap
leader and everything should allow that didn't follow last year
with the off ball linebackers with splash. Yeah, I mean
it has to be more splash than last year.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
You would think, yeah, well, yeah, absolutely, nowhere to go
but up and Landon Roberts six hundred and forty seven snaps,
ninety six tackles, one point eight sacks, and zero point
two interceptions.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
This is a little unfair to Clay, but I'll go
under on snaps on Roberts. I just think they find
some other answer, not the instinct, you know. I just
think that story might not be written yet.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
The interesting thing about this is the other two inside
backers that he lists, or take Router and Tanner. Muse m, now,
you know whatever, whatever however you want to look at that.
He doesn't know, nor does there the computer. No exactly
how you know what Mark Robinson is. Nobody really does
(21:54):
envy trying to figure out the third lineback at the
cornerback position is Patrick.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Day. I didn't put two and two together that the
Steelers new linebacker coach. His name escapes me. He was
a fourth pick in the draft from Lake Forest.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
Yeah, coach mus in Seattle head coach news in Seattle,
do you think.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
He's more than just a pure special teamer. Do you
think he may play on the defense some as a
better Marcus Allen? Maybe? Maybe? I mean he's he's athletic.
You know, he was a good linebacker Clemson, who was
third round pick.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
He's an athlete, right, Yeah, obviously they they you know
he liked him there, so yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
See at quarterback, he's got Patrick Peterson playing the most
snaps of any of the corners at nine hundred and
seventeen sixty sixty tackles, one point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
I might go over on interceptions based off last year
in history.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
History tells me that he's going to get his hands
on more than one point eight passes and he'll catch him.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
He's got Levi Wallace at six hundred and forty sevens
one point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
These are tough, but I'm not sure Wallace will end
up being a big snap guy when it's all said
and done.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Well, if Peters is playing this in the slot, Wallace
is going to be out there.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
M hm.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
He's got Chandon Sullivan third at five hundred and forty
snaps and zero point seven interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
Okay, I bet history shows and Metrics at Analytics say,
don't give rookie cornerbacks a ton of snaps.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, well, Order comes in with the fourth most snaps
at four hundred and thirty two thirty three tackles in
point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Like I think we'd all I think we all think
and hope he'll play more snaps than that.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
Yeah, Nennikello Witherspoon, James Pierre or the other two that
on that list. So overall, he's got the cornerback group
coming out of this with five point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
You'd hope for more. But that's not terrible. I mean
hard to come by in today's NFL. They are. They
are way down at the safety position.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
I mentioned minca Oney twenty five snaps, one hundred and
five tackles, three point seven interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
It's a big number. I mean, it doesn't sound like
a toime. Oh minke will have at least four picks,
but four picks a good year nowadays.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Yeah, if I had to bet on that one though,
if the Vegas number was three point seven, I'd go over.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Yeah, agreed.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Demante Kz eight hundred and nine snaps, sixty two tackles,
one point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Quality that's fine.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yeah, Keon O'Neil three hundred seventy eight snaps point seven interceptions,
Trey Norwood two hundred and sixteen snaps point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:50):
I'm growing fonder and more open to the fact that
Neil might be playing three to four hundred snaps. I
thought he might be Marcus Allen three snaps special teamer.
But I think he's going to be part of the
defense and have a role. No, he's a better player
than Marcus Allen. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I thought his roster
spot was the Marcus Allen one, and it's not so.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Overall, two hundred and twenty nine tackles, one sack, and
six and a half interceptions from the safety groom, I
hear you.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
The one thing I just discrepancy, but I don't envy
Clay for this at all, is I bet they have
numerous defensive players that play nine hundred or more snaps. Thought, yeah, right, yeah,
but I just don't know who exactly who they were.
I mean, it all balances out, you know. In the end.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
We talked last year, we talk Monday actually about the schedule.
He actually breaks down the schedule here with what the
computer model and the computer model comes out with on
the win probabilities on these games.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Oh really, so.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Looking at the schedule and he just has them. We
don't know who's what. You know where the games are
being played, or when the games are being played, you
know where they're being played. So he is just I
don't know how he decided what they listened to how
to list him here, but he had Seattle first visiting
at Seattle forty two percent win probability, Tennessee at home
seventy one percent.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
When that's a big number for the NFL, huge number, and.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
He basically in the NFL, anything over fifty five percent
gets you in the green on this Okay, just just
looking at that, the Steelers have nine games in the green.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
I mean, if you win two thirds of your games,
you're a Hall of Fame coach all day long.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Yeah, at Baltimore is thirty seven percent. Fair, Green Bay
at home sixty four percent. New England at home is
fifty eight percent, Cleveland in Cleveland is forty four percent. Yeah,
Baltimore at home is forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Wow, I thought they would be over fifty percent in
that one. Yeah, Well, injections for Baltimore must be good
in his message.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Yeah, Indianapolis at home sixty eight percent, Jacksonville at home.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Fifty seven percent. I can't fight many of these.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
At Las Vegas fifty eight percent.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Yeah, I agree with that.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Arizona at home sixty six percent.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Wow, well, he has no respect for Tennessee none none.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
At Houston sixty five percent.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
Well, that's massive for a rose.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
San Francisco at home forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
I'm sure there's a formula for this, but I wonder
what the point spread is if you're a sixty percent
favored on the road, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Yeah, how about this one. They're in Los Angeles against
the Rams sixty nine percent win probability.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
They're awful, I'm very much Wow. I mean you may
have there might be stetson Bennett and yeah, I think
there's a real good chance of that.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
At Cincinnati twenty eight percent. So that's their worst win
odds of the year.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
That's probably their hardest game.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Cleveland at home fifty two percent.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I like the chances better than that, but yeah, I
do too.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Uh. And then Cincinnati at home is thirty six percent.
So if you just look again at the at the
games that they are favored by more than fifty five
percent one two, three, four, five, six, seven eight.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
That's nine games. Yeah, just sense out and then you
know you'll win seven of them, but you'll win two others.
You will.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
You throw the Cleveland game in there, where there are
fifty two percent chance to win at home, that's ten,
you know, and then there's some other games in there
that like the game at home against San Francisco, where's
forty five percent, The game at home against Baltimore is
forty five percent I guess you could get. And then
(28:54):
even the game at Cleveland is forty four percent.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Right again, I think eight and a half win totals crazy, yeah,
I mean, sounds of it. He thinks they win two
division games, well, I mean, right right now, that that
would be what they are. Well three one of them
is really like two and a half probably, yeah, yeah, But.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
It all comes out according to his projected win for
his model nine point one wins.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Which is a pretty big different. I mean, like it
doesn't sound like much. Eight and a half wins versus
nine point one wins doesn't sound like much like dude,
that's you know, a field goal hitting the upright or
going through or missing. Yeah, but it is when these guys,
the football siders Vegas. That's a big difference.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
That would be like, don't it's almost a full win. Yeah,
it's like the ninth best versus the seventeenth best in
the league. You know, it's what we talk about when
that when that schedule comes out, why it's so important
where and when you play these teams.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Yeah, like Vegas doesn't project any team over or fourteen
and a half wins, but somebody will win fourteen or
fifteen games here like this.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
This this whole thing, the win probabilities may change when
the schedule comes out. Are you playing Are you playing
San Francisco at home in September?
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Right?
Speaker 2 (30:15):
That might you might actually flip flop that you might
be a fifty five percent with Sam Darnold at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
One of them is going to be on a short
week on the road, right, you know, are you playing.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
Arizona? When are you playing them? You know that's stuff
like that's gonna.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Matter your third straight road game.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Yeah, is Kyler in the lineup or is Kyler not
in the lineup? Well, that makes a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
And things that nobody could project is is Jordan love
good or Jordan Love bad? Let alone, just day to
day in juries. You know, are you missing your left tackle? Yeah,
of course, right, and you you laid this out. I
think it was Monday, richardson Stroud. I mean, there's rookies,
love rookies, slash unknown quarterbacks. They might be on fire,
(31:04):
they might be horrendous. Right right.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
We'll take a little deeper dive in to this Mike
Klay stuff here in the next segment. I wanted to
take a look at this from a little different perspective,
so we'll do that when we come back. You can
now listen to Steelers Nation Radio anytime anywhere through your
smart speaker. Just say Alexa, play Steelers Nation Radio from
my heart, and Alexa will take care.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Of the rest.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
He is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lallie. You're listening
to the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back
with more right after this
He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson show
on your twenty four to seven home of the Black
and Gold Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
I am Dale LOLLI, he is Matt Williamson, and this
is the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. And Matt Mike
Clay puts out this is largely through a fantasy football perspective,
but he puts out his projections. It's a thing on
ESPN dot com here, So I wanted to dig into
this a little bit. And this also ties in with
(00:40):
the scheduling and all the other stuff. We've talked a
little bit about this over the last few shows that
we've done. But he has projections here I want I
want you to I'm going to give you his projections
for these players for the Steelers, and you tell me
if that would be on par with what you think
or if that would be a disappointment.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
For that player.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
So for Kenny Pickett, he has fifteen games this year. Okay,
I assume you never give anyone seventeen Probably not, yeah, yeah,
I mean okay, So fifteen games completes three hundred and
twenty three out of five hundred and one passes. So
about sixty four percent of my UPG math sixty four
(01:23):
and a half percent, give or take three thousand, four
hundred and fifty six passing yards, twenty touchdown passes, twelve interceptions.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
Twenty to twelve. Yeah, I don't think it's horrible. I mean,
I think they'll be run heavy. I think the defense
will allow them to be run heavy. I think that
they'll run the ball well. Did I'll still go over
on touchdowns and yardage, but I don't think these are
(01:56):
crazy talk.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
No, I think that's a nice progression. Yeah, you know
for the young quarterback. He also has him for two
hundred and sixty eight rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns,
so twenty three total touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I'll buy that. I may even go slightly over on
the rushing yards.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I think, I think, I think, yeah, I think he
finishes with more rushing yards than that to sixty eight.
I mean you're talking that's only that's not even twenty
yards rushing per game.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Right, I mean he said fifteen games. I mean if
you assuming if he really does play seventeen, he'll be
maybe a hundred yards more than that. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
So, and then you look look at the projections for
Mitch Trubisky. Obviously, if Pickett plays fifteen games, he's got
two games for Mitch Trubisky forty five of sixty nine
for four hundred and forty three yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions,
twenty seven rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Seems like quality backup numbers, which I think he is
so all told.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
You're looking at just under four thousand passing yards and
twenty three touchdown passes for the Steelers twenty three.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Did you say, yeah, I think I'll go over on
total passing yards.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Yeah, that's for seventeen games. At four thousand, you're just
looking at it just a little over two hundred yards
passing per game. I think they I think they probably
do go over that a little bit.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I don't think they'll have age
three hundred dards game or two seventy five.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Or the three point fifty that Lamar wants to.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
He's threw over two thousand more than these guys. Right.
The passing touchdowns I'm in on though, because I think
there'll be a lot of plunge touchdowns. I like that
he gave pick at three rushing touchdowns. I could see
Nausea getting the double digits Warren's gonna get a few,
you know, Connor Hayward making a shovel pass or something
(03:57):
goofy like I could see them pounding the ball in
from in within the five.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Well we say that and listen to these rushing totals. Okay,
So for Najia Harris, he has First of all, he
only has him playing fourteen games.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
I would bet running backs you have to do that.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
He probably, I hear you, but he is at I
mean he plays every game.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
I no, I now.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Uh So in four fourteen games, he has him for
two hundred and fifty three carries, one thousand and sixteen yards,
six rushing touchdowns, forty three catches for two hundred and
seventy six yards and two more scores.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
I'm going over on that. Would you be happy with
forty three catches up from last year?
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Well, for fourteen games, that's about three per game.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Yeah, that part I thought was encouraging, and I'm hoping
that's the case and we hard up on that a lot.
I'll definitely take over six rushing touchdowns, yeah, especially play
seventeen games. Of course, he doesn't do yards per carry
or any of that stuff. Said, Well, that's about four
yards per carry, Yeah, yeah, which is he's never going
(05:15):
to be a high yards per carry guy in my opinion.
I mean he's ever going to be five. No, I mean,
could he be four to two this year with better blocking? Certain? Yeah? Sure?
You know.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
For Jlem Warren, ninety four carries for four hundred and
eighteen yards, twenty six catches, one hundred and ninety yards
in a touchdown. He hasn't scored two rushing touchdowns. I
like the twenty six catches. I mean, if you get
seventy catches from your top two backs, give or take, yeah,
I think that's moving the football efficiently.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
And both those guys are good at it.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, No, for sure. For Anthony McFarland, who's right now
is his number three, thirty four carries one hundred and
forty six yards. That's a nice average, one touchdown, six
catches for another forty four yards.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
It sounds reasonable. I mean again, none of these will
work that way because someone will get hurt and McFarlane
will be active for twelve games as the two, or
he won't make the team or I mean, like right, right,
But I mean if you told me that's what he
would do, and that's the way he'd be used.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
That adds up perfectly. You know, some of these national
guys look at a team and don't think that way.
And I think that he has the running back touches
and balance pretty well hit the thing that he doesn't
have to me. So the overall running back total for
rushing yards here. Now he does have another obviously with
Pickett the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks having about three hundred rushing
(06:46):
yards and he has about one hundred rushing yards for
the wide receivers. For the running backs themselves, three hundred
and ninety carries for one thousand, six hundred and seventeen yards,
ten touchdowns, seventy seven catches five hundred and twenty four yards,
and another three touchdowns. Unless we forget this team averaged
(07:09):
one hundred and fifty yards rushing per game in the
second half of last year.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
See that's where I was going to like. That gets
to six seventeen from the running backs. Let's just call
it two thousand when you throw in quarterback and wide
receiver rushes. Right, that's under one hundred and eighteen rushing
yards per game, right total as a team, I think
they're closer to one thirty.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Yeah, I think I think they run for about twenty
two hundred yards.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Yeah, I agree, Yeah, right, another way of putting it.
I think the run blocking will be better. I do too.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
And I think that they've I think they've Everything that
they've done this offseason is screaming we're going to run
the football.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Yes, yes, so we're going. They showed last year they
didn't get away from it, you know, I mean, they certainly,
and it was a recipe. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll go
over on that. I mean, one thing that hurts them
is I don't think I don't see a whole lot
of seventy yard runs.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Well, I mean, if they if you see Anthony McFarland
out there a little bit more and Jalen Warren has
some juice, I think there's there's a little more. Put
it this way, replacing it Benny Snell with Anthony McFarland's
just if that's what if that's what happens. If even
if it's just a let's say three carries per game,
(08:30):
but carries a year fifty carry, he's gonna break something.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Mm hmm. Agreed. But I'll lead back or.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Right now, you're not gonna You're not gonna have a
bunch of them, right, right, But Jalen Warren has some
juice there as well.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He does, so I could see if.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
You get more carries from Warren, you get more carries
from McFarland.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
That's going to.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Give you more opportunity I think to break off some
longer runs.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
But that's my point there. No, that's fair.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
A wide receiver or Deonta A. Johnson one hundred and
twenty seven targets, seventy nine catches for nine hundred and
seventy one yards, four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I'm glad didn't give him zero touchdowns. That's in fifteen games.
By the way, I think he's a thousand yard receiver though,
Well he's just under that.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
If he plays all seventeen, right, then you know the
numbers extrapolate. If you do that over seventeen games, it's
probably about ninety catches for.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
You know, eleven hundred yards, right, Okay, I guess I'll
react to this more once we talk about the other
receivers and see how he divvys up the targets and
touchdowns and whatnot. Yeah, that's the interesting way to thing
to look at. Yeah, I still think Johnson's going to
be the target leader.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, I do too, he's your chain mover. Yeah, George Pickens,
same thing. Fifteen games, which seems to be about.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
The norm by what you do for receivers. Ye.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Yeah, ninety nine targets, sixty two catches for eight hundred
and five yards and four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
My initial response is I'll take over on four touchdowns. Yeah.
I don't know that I would with DJ, you know,
with you with Johnson, but I definitely would with Pickens.
I bet his I'm trying to do math and talk here,
but I would bet yards per catch Pickens is higher
than Johnson. Yeah, yeah, and he is. I can do
(10:39):
that real quick here. Eight oh five divided by sixty.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Two is it's about thirteen yards a catch.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
And Johnson is at twelve to two twelve three. So
I bet that discrepancy's a little wider, though than one
yard difference per catch. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
But would you be happy if Pickens gets basically one
hundre targets?
Speaker 1 (11:03):
I wouldn't be thrilled with under eighteen hundred yards between
the two of them. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Well, I remember now we're talking that he has them
both playing fifteen games.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I I know, right, because one of them get hurt
week one and you get nothing. I mean, right, kind
of projections are weird, you know, right. I mean you've
heard my argument about over unders, like you under you
bet every under, I bet you win because who plays
the projected number of games? Right? I might?
Speaker 2 (11:35):
I might go over with pickings on maybe across the board.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Yeah, does he have Robinson or go deeper?
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Yeah, he goes all the way through. Oh okay for Robinson.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
He's got him playing fourteen games, fifty five targets, thirty
six catches for three hundred and sixty six yards, and
three touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
That sounds minuscule. I mean, Alan Robinson was a pro
bowler and a top ten receiver and you only get
three hundred and sixty six yards out of the guy.
But I don't think that's gonna I think there's gonna
be some a lot of them be on third downs,
you know. I like that he got three touchdowns. You know,
slant in the middle of the field, move the chains.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Well, I mean he's we've already established he gets seventy
seven catches for five hundred and twenty four yards to
the running backs.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
Yeah, you know, the you've only the pie is only
so big. That's what I say, Like, when you start
adding up projections, it can't add up to six thousand
passing yards.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Like that's the one nice thing about this is everything
adds up.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
Yeah, yea, yeah, yeah, So I mean he's just many
times and yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
He probably ran it through a computer, you know all
that stuff.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
Yeah. Yeah, Like if he told me today, well, Alan
Robinson of more than three hundred and sixty six receiving
yards next year, I would say yes. But everyone's always
tempted to say the over It's real easy to envision it.
One game with eighty yards, a couple with forty before
you know you're there. Yeah, but that's not how projection.
His work.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
For Calvin Austin has him playing fifteen games twenty one targets,
fourteen for one fifty nine in a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
Okay, I mean twenty one targets. To be is logical.
There's a chance he gets under that, you know, I mean,
just to be a realist. Yeah, but that one touchdown
might be an eighty yard er, right right.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Gunnerol Chevsky six catches seventy six yards, and then Miles
Boyce in three catches thirty eight yards.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
He didn't do Miller though he did not do Miller. Okay,
fair enough, I don't have Gunner makes team.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, well, somebody's gotta return at tight end position. And
this is the other part of the equation here for this.
So basically he has Firemouth as their number three target guy.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
I agree with that. I think he out targets Robinson.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Yeah, he has him with eighty eight targets, sixty catches
for six hundred and fifty yards, and four touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
He exceeded that. If you just look at his healthy games.
Wasn't there two games that he had the foot that
he did like very little and yeah, yeah, napcount was
really low. I think it was two games. But if
you look at the twelve, thirteen to fourteen whatever, it
was healthy games. His yards for route run targets, they
weren't Chelsea level, but they weren't far off. He weren't
(14:34):
far off. Yeah, I'm going to put him that.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
It puts him because he did it, did this for
the whole league. So that would put him in terms
of Fantasy PPR tight end position at number eight, number
eight in the league.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
Like who's you look at the list, like who's six,
It doesn't it doesn't say, yeah, Okay, this is just
probably be the eighth tight end drafted whenever we do
fantasy stuff. I mean, he'll go behind like godd Or
and Hawk, but I think I'll take the over on
those projections.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Yeah, I think if he gets eighty eight targets. First
of all, I think if he gets eighty eight targets,
he catches more than sixty of them.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I mean, I'm not trying to like make a big splash,
but I thought he was our best offensive player last
year and looked like a star in the making.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Yeah, Connor Hayward. He lists Connor Hayward as a tight end,
which he shouldn't be, but he dies still Listen here,
he has him twenty two targets, fifteen catches, one hundred
and fifty seven yards in one touchdown. He also has
him for four carries for fifteen yards. He should realistically
(15:42):
be listed with the running backs here.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
He probably gets more than four carries. You think he
catches fifteen balls next year? Yeah, I think so. I
mean Austin's at fourteen, who has more catches next year? Yeah?
About saying yeah, not the same doesn't sound like much
and it isn't, But that's still you know, to a game.
That's a contributor.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Darnell Washington sixteen targets, eleven catches for one hundred and
nineteen yards and one touchdown.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
I think he's gonna throwing the ball more than sixteen times.
We'll see, Yeah, But I mean all these things are
easy to say over. I'm gonna get that. I'm not
giving Mike a hard time. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
And then Zach Gentry five targets, four catches, thirty four
yards fair enough.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
I mean his will go his will go down from
last year. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
So if we look at the wide receiver production, we
forgot to do that for their for their wide receiver
room twenty or two hundred catches on three hundred and
eighteen targets, two four hundred and fourteen yards, thirteen touchdown catches.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
The touchdown catches will be way up, way up. How
many way with the guardage aet.
Speaker 2 (16:56):
Twenty four hundred, just over twenty four hundred.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
Seems realistic. Yeah. For the tight end.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
For the tight end position, one hundred and thirty two
total targets, ninety catches, nine hundred and sixty one yards,
and six touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
That would be near the top of the league. Ninety
tight end catches. Yeah, I think you'd take that. Yeah,
I mean, and it could be big.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I mean when we're talking, when we're rolling through those,
you're like, well, I think Fiar Moose is better than that.
I think Washington is better than Could they get more
than ninety catches out of their tight end room?
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, I mean if they really fifty percent of their
snaps in twelve personnel or more, I mean they anyway
snaps Gentry played after the Claypool trade, it was a lot. Yeah.
I don't know if they'll were far away from those numbers. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
The other interesting thing about that we can we can
look at. He has fantasy numbers here for the defense
as well. I'll give you some numbers here on some guys.
He has Alex high Smith with the best projections for
sack totals for the Steelers next year at ten point eight.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
I can't agree with that. T J. Watt comes in
at ten point four. I mean, I think double digit
sacks for high Smith is attainable and a reasonable projection,
and but to have him out sacked TJ sounds a
little crazy.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
There must be Well, he has a snap count here
for them as well, so he has high high Smith
playing nine hundred and fifty snaps. What playing nine oh six.
That's basically a game's.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Word for those odds. Yeah, I'll take TJ over ten
point four.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
I know that.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Yeah. Yeah. Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
He has Cam Hayward at seven hundred and eighty eight
snaps and having seventy tackles and six sacks.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
I hope his snap numbers go down a little bit,
so his back of football card production might go down
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Let's put it so, the guy who plays the most
defensive snaps according to plays projections is Mika Fitzpatrick with
one and twenty.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Five, which is who I would pick as well.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Yeah, pretty much. Assume that's just about every defensive snap.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
Yeah yeah, I mean secondary guys don't get beat up
as much. They play more snaps as in general, there's
not a linebacker that's Fred Warner on this team that
would be in that competition. The corners are still up
in the air while they're playing time we'll get the
beat out, so it'd have to be making.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Yeah, Ogan Joby has six hundred and forty seven snaps,
two point six sacks, forty eight tackles.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Okay, I'd hope for a little more, but that doesn't
sound unrealistic.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, looking at the defensive line as a whole, he
has that group coming out of the season with twelve
and a half sacks and.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
He's not counting Watton obviously.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
No their edge for the edge he's got the Hes
got their edge rushers at twenty three point eight sacks.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
I'd go over that. I'd go over that. I'd go
over the collective defensive front number.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah, overall that would be uh thirty five thirty six
sacks basically out of your defensive front.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
I'll take the over I'm going over on that. So
sack question for you, if I gave you TJ or
the field to lead the Steelers in sacks this year,
which obviously is a durability question, and Ken easily answered,
which side would you put here? I'll take TJ.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
I would get it because he could do it in
twelve Yeah, right. You know, looking at that linebacker position,
we've talked a lot about that. He has Cole Holkom
playing nine hundred and seventeen snaps, one hundred and thirty
four tackles, one point eight sacks, point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I mean, I think he projects as certainly the snap
leader and everything should allow that didn't follow last year
with the off ball linebackers with splash. Yeah, I mean
it has to be more splash than last year.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
You would think, yeah, well, yeah, absolutely, nowhere to go
but up and Landon Roberts six hundred and forty seven snaps,
ninety six tackles, one point eight sacks, and zero point
two interceptions.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
This is a little unfair to Clay, but I'll go
under on snaps on Roberts. I just think they find
some other answer, not the instinct, you know. I just
think that story might not be written yet.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
The interesting thing about this is the other two inside
backers that he lists, or take Router and Tanner. Muse m, now,
you know whatever, whatever however you want to look at that.
He doesn't know, nor does there the computer. No exactly
how you know what Mark Robinson is. Nobody really does
(21:54):
envy trying to figure out the third lineback at the
cornerback position is Patrick.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Day. I didn't put two and two together that the
Steelers new linebacker coach. His name escapes me. He was
a fourth pick in the draft from Lake Forest.
Speaker 2 (22:09):
Yeah, coach mus in Seattle head coach news in Seattle,
do you think.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
He's more than just a pure special teamer. Do you
think he may play on the defense some as a
better Marcus Allen? Maybe? Maybe? I mean he's he's athletic.
You know, he was a good linebacker Clemson, who was
third round pick.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
He's an athlete, right, Yeah, obviously they they you know
he liked him there, so yeah.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
See at quarterback, he's got Patrick Peterson playing the most
snaps of any of the corners at nine hundred and
seventeen sixty sixty tackles, one point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
I might go over on interceptions based off last year
in history.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
History tells me that he's going to get his hands
on more than one point eight passes and he'll catch him.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
He's got Levi Wallace at six hundred and forty sevens
one point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
These are tough, but I'm not sure Wallace will end
up being a big snap guy when it's all said
and done.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Well, if Peters is playing this in the slot, Wallace
is going to be out there.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
M hm.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
He's got Chandon Sullivan third at five hundred and forty
snaps and zero point seven interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
Okay, I bet history shows and Metrics at Analytics say,
don't give rookie cornerbacks a ton of snaps.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
Yeah, well, Order comes in with the fourth most snaps
at four hundred and thirty two thirty three tackles in
point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Like I think we'd all I think we all think
and hope he'll play more snaps than that.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
Yeah, Nennikello Witherspoon, James Pierre or the other two that
on that list. So overall, he's got the cornerback group
coming out of this with five point eight interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
You'd hope for more. But that's not terrible. I mean
hard to come by in today's NFL. They are. They
are way down at the safety position.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
I mentioned minca Oney twenty five snaps, one hundred and
five tackles, three point seven interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
It's a big number. I mean, it doesn't sound like
a toime. Oh minke will have at least four picks,
but four picks a good year nowadays.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Yeah, if I had to bet on that one though,
if the Vegas number was three point seven, I'd go over.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Yeah, agreed.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Demante Kz eight hundred and nine snaps, sixty two tackles,
one point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Quality that's fine.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yeah, Keon O'Neil three hundred seventy eight snaps point seven interceptions,
Trey Norwood two hundred and sixteen snaps point five interceptions.
Speaker 1 (24:50):
I'm growing fonder and more open to the fact that
Neil might be playing three to four hundred snaps. I
thought he might be Marcus Allen three snaps special teamer.
But I think he's going to be part of the
defense and have a role. No, he's a better player
than Marcus Allen. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I thought his roster
spot was the Marcus Allen one, and it's not so.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Overall, two hundred and twenty nine tackles, one sack, and
six and a half interceptions from the safety groom, I
hear you.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
The one thing I just discrepancy, but I don't envy
Clay for this at all, is I bet they have
numerous defensive players that play nine hundred or more snaps. Thought, yeah, right, yeah,
but I just don't know who exactly who they were.
I mean, it all balances out, you know. In the end.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
We talked last year, we talk Monday actually about the schedule.
He actually breaks down the schedule here with what the
computer model and the computer model comes out with on
the win probabilities on these games.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Oh really, so.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Looking at the schedule and he just has them. We
don't know who's what. You know where the games are
being played, or when the games are being played, you
know where they're being played. So he is just I
don't know how he decided what they listened to how
to list him here, but he had Seattle first visiting
at Seattle forty two percent win probability, Tennessee at home
seventy one percent.
Speaker 1 (26:12):
When that's a big number for the NFL, huge number, and.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
He basically in the NFL, anything over fifty five percent
gets you in the green on this Okay, just just
looking at that, the Steelers have nine games in the green.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
I mean, if you win two thirds of your games,
you're a Hall of Fame coach all day long.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
Yeah, at Baltimore is thirty seven percent. Fair, Green Bay
at home sixty four percent. New England at home is
fifty eight percent, Cleveland in Cleveland is forty four percent. Yeah,
Baltimore at home is forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Wow, I thought they would be over fifty percent in
that one. Yeah, Well, injections for Baltimore must be good
in his message.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Yeah, Indianapolis at home sixty eight percent, Jacksonville at home.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Fifty seven percent. I can't fight many of these.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
At Las Vegas fifty eight percent.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Yeah, I agree with that.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Arizona at home sixty six percent.
Speaker 1 (27:16):
Wow, well, he has no respect for Tennessee none none.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
At Houston sixty five percent.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
Well, that's massive for a rose.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
San Francisco at home forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
I'm sure there's a formula for this, but I wonder
what the point spread is if you're a sixty percent
favored on the road, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Yeah, how about this one. They're in Los Angeles against
the Rams sixty nine percent win probability.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
They're awful, I'm very much Wow. I mean you may
have there might be stetson Bennett and yeah, I think
there's a real good chance of that.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
At Cincinnati twenty eight percent. So that's their worst win
odds of the year.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
That's probably their hardest game.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Cleveland at home fifty two percent.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
I like the chances better than that, but yeah, I
do too.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
Uh. And then Cincinnati at home is thirty six percent.
So if you just look again at the at the
games that they are favored by more than fifty five
percent one two, three, four, five, six, seven eight.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
That's nine games. Yeah, just sense out and then you
know you'll win seven of them, but you'll win two others.
You will.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
You throw the Cleveland game in there, where there are
fifty two percent chance to win at home, that's ten,
you know, and then there's some other games in there
that like the game at home against San Francisco, where's
forty five percent, The game at home against Baltimore is
forty five percent I guess you could get. And then
(28:54):
even the game at Cleveland is forty four percent.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Right again, I think eight and a half win totals crazy, yeah,
I mean, sounds of it. He thinks they win two
division games, well, I mean, right right now, that that
would be what they are. Well three one of them
is really like two and a half probably, yeah, yeah, But.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
It all comes out according to his projected win for
his model nine point one wins.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Which is a pretty big different. I mean, like it
doesn't sound like much. Eight and a half wins versus
nine point one wins doesn't sound like much like dude,
that's you know, a field goal hitting the upright or
going through or missing. Yeah, but it is when these guys,
the football siders Vegas. That's a big difference.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
That would be like, don't it's almost a full win. Yeah,
it's like the ninth best versus the seventeenth best in
the league. You know, it's what we talk about when
that when that schedule comes out, why it's so important
where and when you play these teams.
Speaker 1 (29:56):
Yeah, like Vegas doesn't project any team over or fourteen
and a half wins, but somebody will win fourteen or
fifteen games here like this.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
This this whole thing, the win probabilities may change when
the schedule comes out. Are you playing Are you playing
San Francisco at home in September?
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Right?
Speaker 2 (30:15):
That might you might actually flip flop that you might
be a fifty five percent with Sam Darnold at quarterback.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
One of them is going to be on a short
week on the road, right, you know, are you playing.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
Arizona? When are you playing them? You know that's stuff
like that's gonna.
Speaker 1 (30:33):
Matter your third straight road game.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Yeah, is Kyler in the lineup or is Kyler not
in the lineup? Well, that makes a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (30:42):
And things that nobody could project is is Jordan love
good or Jordan Love bad? Let alone, just day to
day in juries. You know, are you missing your left tackle? Yeah,
of course, right, and you you laid this out. I
think it was Monday, richardson Stroud. I mean, there's rookies,
love rookies, slash unknown quarterbacks. They might be on fire,
(31:04):
they might be horrendous. Right right.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
We'll take a little deeper dive in to this Mike
Klay stuff here in the next segment. I wanted to
take a look at this from a little different perspective,
so we'll do that when we come back. You can
now listen to Steelers Nation Radio anytime anywhere through your
smart speaker. Just say Alexa, play Steelers Nation Radio from
my heart, and Alexa will take care.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
Of the rest.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
He is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lallie. You're listening
to the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. We'll be back
with more right after this
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