The 2026 Pool Season: What You Need to Know

Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
And welcome to the Pool Guy Podcast Show.
In this episode, I'm going togive you my predictions for the
2026 season.
I know it's a little early, butI thought I would get a head
start on this because I thinkit's important to kind of plan
ahead for the next season andwhat to expect in your business.
Are you a pool service prolooking to take your business to

(01:25):
the next level?
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I would say that the poolseasons are pretty static next

(01:46):
to each other.
There hasn't been a lot ofchange since the COVID era when
we had a spike in inflation andspike in pool building, things
of that nature.
It was kind of an anomaly, andthings are back to normal, so to
speak, where year to year thingsdon't change too much.

(02:07):
I would say that the growth ofthe industry is probably going
to continue at a rate of about2-3% a year.
You're not going to see a hugeincrease in the pool service
industry because building hasdefinitely slowed down since the
COVID-19 pandemic when there wasan explosion of building to
where the builders could evenkeep up with the builds and all

(02:30):
the leads.
I think it was about 11 monthsout whenever you wanted to have
a pool built.
So it's one of those thingswhere it was a pretty explosive
time.
There isn't a huge amount ofpools being built.
There's just a normal amount ofpools being built.
So that's something that youprobably need to understand is

(02:51):
that there's not going to be alot of, you know, an explosion
of new accounts is not going tohappen in 2026.
There may be a lot more peopletrying to get into the pool
industry.
I think the service industriesare probably going to start to
attract more people.
A lot of fields where AI is kindof invading those areas and

(03:13):
creating a shrinking job market.
For example, if you have acomputer science degree, getting
an entry-level job out there inthat field is becoming more and
more difficult.
And you know, it's going to be ashrinking field.
And I think a lot of these jobsand a lot of the future is going

(03:34):
to be geared towards service.
You know, HVAC, electricielectricians, plumbing, pool
service.
These are things that are goingto be impacted, I think, by AI.
I wouldn't say in a negativeway, but it's going to bring
more people into the serviceindustry.
And that is going to be maybe anegative for you because there's
more competition, if that makessense.

(03:56):
So AI is not impacting theindustry directly, but
indirectly since it's impactingother industries.
I expect and I suspect morepeople are going to get into the
pool service industry in thenext five or ten years as the
job market in tech fields andother fields start to shrink.
One thing I think will expand,at least in my area of Southern

(04:19):
California, are commercialaccounts.
There is a lot more emphasis onthese kind of mega apartment
communities, and single-familyhomes aren't being built.
There's been a real shrinkage inthe size of lots here in my area
of Los Angeles County over theyears.
Even in San Bernard County, Iwould say the lot sizes are

(04:41):
shrinking.
So you don't have a big enoughlot.
Usually you're going to needabout a 5,000 square foot lot to
put a pool in.
You have to have a decent sizedbackyard.
Anything smaller than that, itbecomes harder and harder to put
in a swimming pool of any size.
You know, you can put a smallone in if the lot's pretty
small, but you're going to havea problem putting a pool in any

(05:04):
lot here that's less than 5,000square feet, in my opinion.
You need that area for a 15 by30 pool and spa combo.
And so here a lot of these megaapartment complexes are going
up, which are these four-storyapartment complexes with a pool
and spa.
And a lot of homes are beingbuilt townhome style, basically,

(05:27):
with a community pool and spa.
So you're going to have somemore commercial account
opportunities in my area, atleast.
And maybe in certain areas whereyou're at, you're also
experiencing the same kind ofshrinkage of the backyards and
the increase of these apartmentcomplex.
So that's something to keep aneye on on the horizon.
If you like commercial accounts,I think that's going to be

(05:47):
something, at least in SouthernCalifornia, where it's going to
be mainly these communities withthe pool versus backyard pools.
And the price of pools, it tobuild a pool is just pretty
astronomical here.
And I mentioned this, and Ialways get people like
scratching their heads orquestioning this particular
number that I throw out here.

(06:08):
But a 15 by 30 pool here in myarea runs you about$120,000 or
so in costs.
And that's just regular whiteplaster coping, no deck,
standard equipment basically.
And it's just one of thosethings where it's probably not
sustainable as an industry andeconomy, especially looking at

(06:29):
the economy kind of being flat.
I wouldn't say we're going intorecession next year, but the
economy has been kind of flatbased on all the different
things that are happening in theeconomy.
So you have to kind of look atthat as well.
I wouldn't say that you need tobe afraid of a recession.
The pool industry is prettyresilient and we're pretty

(06:52):
insulated as an industry.
We're kind of like HVAC andplumbing, where we're an
essential part of the serviceindustry.
And it's something that, yes,some people will do their pools
themselves when things gettight.
But a lot of times pool serviceis one of the last services to
be cut because it is a servicethat is convenient.
You can make more money in mostcases in your profession, having

(07:15):
someone do your pool for yourather than you spending the
time and energy maintaining yourpool.
So that's kind of what sustainsthe industry is that people are
not wanting to do it because youcan outsource something like
pool service fairly easily andfairly inexpensively compared to

(07:50):
other services that you can'treally outsource as easily.
I recently had my oil change,and I always think, you know,
why am I taking it to you knowJiffy Loo to get the oil change
and waiting there for half anhour?
And I can easily do it myself inmy driveway.
I've done it before in the past,and it's just one of those
things where it's just moreconvenient to hire to have

(08:10):
someone do the oil change.
I mean, when I used to do itmyself, I'd have oil in my
garage containers, and I'd bescratching my head, like, what
do I do with these and look fora place that accepts to use oil?
And it's one of those thingswhere it's easier just to have
someone do a knife spilt oilbefore taking off the filter.
So it's like it's like somethingthat I can do, but it's more
convenient just to have just topay to have someone do that.

(08:34):
And pool service kind of fallsin that category.
A lot of cases because of thecomplex automation, different
things that go with the poolthat the customer doesn't really
have time to do.
I'm not saying you can't do yourown pool, I'm just saying that
time and energy and resourcesare necessary to do it
effectively.
Let me talk about priceincreases.

(08:56):
Now, before the COVID-19pandemic, the industry was a
little behind on increasingtheir prices.
We didn't really raise ourprices much because it was a
really flat inflationary market.
Chemical costs were the sameyear after year.
Equipment costs were about thesame year after year.
There wasn't any need to reallyraise the prices dramatically,

(09:17):
or even at all in some cases.
But of course, all that changedwhen the pandemic hit, the
chemical prices shot up becauseof shortages, and also the
expansion of the industry, poolbuilding, the demand for
chemicals and equipment went up.
So, of course, when demand goesup, the price goes up, and it
really affected the industry ina way that caused a lot of

(09:40):
companies to raise their pricesand to keep raising their prices
year to year.
So if you raise your prices lastyear, I would say that you're
going to have to raise yourprices somewhat this year as
well.
Maybe not an extreme percentage,but you'll have to steadily
increase your prices to keep upwith inflation.
I do have a price increasetemplate.

(10:00):
It's just a simple little blurbthat I put together.
You can send out to thecustomers.
If you want a copy of that, youcan email me at David as
swimming poollearning.com.
That's David at swimmingpoollearning.com and I'll get
that over to you.
But it's basically just blamingthe price increase on the
economic situation in theindustry, inflation, things like
that.
And it's a good way to kind of,you know, not make it you, but

(10:23):
make it just what's happeningeverywhere.
And if people watch the news,which a lot of people do,
they'll read about the tariffsand about you know the
refineries closing inCalifornia, it's gonna cause gas
prices to spike.
All these things are on thefront of their minds because
it's all over the place, andthey'll gravitate towards the
news, the bad news about theeconomy.

(10:45):
And then when you send them aprice increase, they're gonna
understand that it's not you,it's the general environment
that you're operating in, theeconomy that you're operating
in, causing the price increase.
So I the media is really helpfulin that fact that it's helping
you offset the sting of thatprice increase.
But I would say, of course,increase your prices in 2026

(11:07):
because you have to keep up withinflation, you don't want to
fall behind.
And I did a podcast or I did afew of these on the math behind
raising your prices.
And really, if you raise yourprice ten dollars and you have
80 accounts, that's$800, youlose four accounts, you're still
breaking even with your rateincrease, and you have some more

(11:28):
free time to get some moreaccounts.
So the price increase doesn'tnecessarily cause you to lose
accounts, but it's somethingthat you have to do, and you'll
have to do that because I thinkchemicals and equipment are
gonna rise in 2026 as well,because they rose a little bit
in 2025, and the price went upin 2024, and prices generally

(11:50):
don't go down once they go up.
If you if you're like me andused to get gas for like 92
cents a gallon, and then when itwent above a dollar, everyone
lost their mind.
Now you're at you know 450 here,close to five dollars in
California, a lot of areas.
No one even blinks at that pricewhen you know, 20 years ago for

(12:11):
nine or even less than 20 yearsago, I should say, when it was,
or I guess about 20 years ago,it was under a dollar.
And you know, it's one of thosethings where our tablet's gonna
drop back down to$80 for a50-pound bucket.
If they're selling for$200, Idon't think that's gonna happen
because there's no reason forthe manufacturer to lower the
price.

(12:31):
Plus, there's other factors likehigher payroll, higher
transportation cost, things likethat, higher regul higher cost
of regulations in the industry.
All these are factors that aregonna keep the prices up and
probably increasing everyseason.
Are there any earth-shatteringinnovations coming in 2026?

(12:52):
Probably not.
Everything is pretty gradual inthe industry.
There's new salt systems comingout, there's new pumps that come
out on the market, newautomation upgrades, things like
that.
But nothing really revolutionarycomes out on the market year to
year.
It's a kind of gradual industry,which is really nice about the
full industry, that there's youknow, we are regulated by the

(13:14):
government to some respect.
And there are changes where youmay not be able to get a single
speed pump as readily in 2026 as2025 or 24, but we're not
regulated as industries like theHVAC industry, where you know
the energy efficiency is a bigthing, and there's built-in
obsoless obsolescence in olderair conditioners, things like

(13:38):
that.
But parts are still readilyavailable for old, you know, old
equipment in the pool industry.
So it's not something that youneed to worry about.
There's not going to besomething dramatic happening in
industry where you know I thinkin California there is a push
for getting rid of natural gasin houses, and a lot of new
communities are being built, allelectric.

(14:00):
It's not a huge deal breaker.
You can still get a heat pumpinstead of a gas heater.
So these things are somethingthat kind of equalize
themselves.
The regulations, of course, arebanning or making it harder to
put in single speed pumps, butthere's no regulation against a
variable speed pump, and noregulation of you running that
at 3450 RPMs for the course ofduration of the pool operation.

(14:24):
I always find it funny thatthese regulations are put in
place, but there's nothing toactually stop you from getting a
VS pump and running it at thefull speed, which would be the
same energy use as a singlespeed pump.
But that's kind of how thegovernment is when they step in.
They just don't know the nuancesof an industry.

(14:44):
There may be some changes withthe 1099 regulations in your
area.
California already went throughthis with AB5 a few years ago,
and it's really kind of wreckedthe 1099 industry.
When you have an when you hiresomebody, more than likely they
have to be an employee.
And this may be spreading indifferent states across the
country, and it's something thatyou're just gonna have to adapt

(15:06):
to.
If you bring in an employee,they're gonna have to probably
be if you bring on a helper,you're gonna have to be an
employee and not a 1099subcontractor.
So these are things that arekind of changing, but it's slow,
and these regulations kind oftake time to implement
themselves in the industry.
And we're surviving here inCalifornia with this with these

(15:28):
regulations, and it's somethingthat you just have to deal with
when new things happen.
But I don't think there's goingto be any earth-shattering
regulations in the industry in2026.
There's always like droughtrestrictions in different areas,
you know, Arizona, Nevada, theseare common and you're used to it
by now.
California had some of these afew years ago before the rainy

(15:49):
season kicked in.
Those things can't be predicted.
You know, the rain season inArizona or Nevada or California,
we can't tell if it's gonna be adrought year or not.
It's one of those things whereyou just have to get into the
year to find that out.
But these are all things thatyou can deal with.
And if you've been in theindustry for a while, you know
that these are pretty fluidthings and they don't change

(16:11):
dramatically how you operate.
Here in California, when we hadour last drought regulations, we
couldn't drain pools for acidwashes.
It was one of those things whereeven people that were building
pools, they were they weretrying to restrict the size of
pools being built.
And then we just had this hugeamount of rain happen the next
season, which kind of washed allthat regulation away.

(16:31):
And it's one of those thingswhere those can't things can't
be predicted a year in advance.
But I can tell you that theprice increases are probably
gonna happen in the industry forchemicals and equipment.
The pool industry is not reallyexpanding dramatically in 2026,
maybe a two or three percentincrease.
And there's gonna be morecommercial pools available, I

(16:52):
think, in 2026 and goingforward.
Just get your business planready, find out, you know, you
know, do an analysis of lastyear and how much you spent on
chemicals and fuel maintenance,things like that for your
vehicle, and then you can kindof calculate how much you want
to increase your price in 2026to keep up with the inflation of

(17:13):
things.
Auto insurance always is moreexpensive every year, your home
insurance is more expensive, andso you have to compensate by
raising your prices everyseason, and there's probably not
going to be a season goingforward where you can't where
you're not gonna raise yourprice to keep up with the
inflation and the industry.
I don't predict any kind of flatmarket like it was, you know,

(17:36):
the golden years of pool servicewas like 2012 to 2020, when
really nothing changed, all theprices were similar, there was
no huge dramatic increases inequipment and chemical prices,
and everything, the competitionwas still pretty stable, all the
industries around you werestable, but things have changed

(17:57):
pretty dramatically, and I thinkgoing forward it's gonna be a
much more fluid industry, andit's also going to be an
industry that evolves with thetechnology.
The AI has really helped theindustry refine the software
that's being used by Skimmer andother software that you can use
for your routing.
And I think these innovationsreally help you refine your

(18:17):
business.
There's just a lot moretechnology in the industry, and
every year the technology getsbetter and better.
So I think that's going to be agreat tool and an asset 2026.
But again, I don't see anythingdramatic on the horizon.
And if you've been doing thislong enough, you know that the
economy ebbs and flows, and thatthe pool industry is pretty

(18:38):
insulated from any kind ofrecession or any kind of
economic depression or downturn.
The tariffs are somewhatconcerning because a lot of our
products come from overseas, andif that if that increases the
price of plastics and things ofthat nature and products coming
in from overseas, that's gonnaimpact the industry.
But if you're steadily raisingyour prices, I don't think you

(19:00):
have to worry too much about itin 2026.
And of course, I could betotally wrong because this is a
prediction and we don't knowwhat's gonna happen until it
actually happens.
If you're looking for otherpodcasts, you can find those by
going to my website,swingprolearning.com.
On the banner, click on thepodcast icon, and there'll be
over 1700 podcasts for you tolisten to there.
And if you're interested in thecoaching program that I offer,

(19:21):
you can learn more atPoolGayCoaching.com.
Thanks for listening to thispodcast.
Have a rest of your week.
God bless.

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