July 30, 2025 • 17 mins
The U.S. is experiencing a massive demographic shift driven by the aging Baby Boom generation, declining birth rates and shifts in immigration trends. What effect will aging have on the banking outlook? In the season finale of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast, ABA economist JP Rothenberg discusses how America’s aging population:
- Shifts balance sheet management strategies with a surplus of stable deposits by weaker localized loan demand.
- May increasingly push banks into new markets to drive loan growth, which further accelerates consolidation.
- Magnifies credit risk during downturns in the tail of the risk profile
- Increases opportunities for personalized wealth management solutions and expands the growth prospects of senior-serving business sectors.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
JP Rothenberg (00:02):
the aging population doesn't reduce
the number of people, right?
It just changes the productsthey're interested in.
So one of the key areas that we willlikely see increasing in demand is
this you know, how do seniors managetheir money, manage their finances?
Insurance products for older Americans.
(00:22):
And even, you know, you see themortgage related products like reverse
mortgages ages off and kind of getsits finances in order, you know, banks
still very much have an opportunity to,to facilitate those types of customers.
Evan Sparks (00:38):
From the American Bankers Association, this is the
A BA Banking Journal podcast.
Welcome back.
I'm Evan Sparks and I'm delighted to bedigging into a topic that we don't talk
about all the time, but that we do try tomake sure we talk about from time to time
because it's really important not for thenext, next six months of bank planning,
but for the next several years ofbanker planning and strategic foresight.
(01:02):
And that is how demographic shifts.
Are changing the US bankinglandscape, we are in a demo.
Demography is destiny, as they say.
We have published several stories on thisbefore in the a b, a banking journal, but
it, you know, we, it's very important forus to understand how birth rates, death
rates are affecting the outlook for banksand how that is a shift, how that regional
(01:25):
shifts, how, how these trends are shiftingbased on different regions of the country
and making sure that we are aware ofhow the changes in population trends are
going to affect affect banks of all sizes.
So to help me do that is someone whois much more of an expert than I am,
and that is my colleague JP Rothenberg,vice President and Economist in our
office of the Chief Economist here ata BA. He has an article in the newest
(01:49):
issue of the a BA banking journal, theJuly August issue on this very subject.
So jp, welcome to the show.
Thanks for being with me today.
JP Rothenberg (01:56):
Thank you, Evan.
I very much appreciate it.
Yeah, so the banking landscape isobviously tied to, to demographic
trends that we're experiencing,and unfortunately, demography
tends to be one of those.
Forecasting tools that's fairlystable, pretty far out, and so.
Making sure we, we take a look at it andsee how the, the future is going to unfold
(02:23):
when it comes to, you know, the agingpopulation, the working population, the
birth and the immigration type statisticsis, is incredibly useful and, and provides
some pretty practical insights for whatthe, the next couple years look like.
And even farther out than that.
So.
Really like working with demographicdata primarily because in at least the
(02:47):
world of forecasting, it's one of theonly reliable long-term projections
that we really have at our disposal.
Evan Sparks (02:54):
Yeah.
So so you, you, in your article youtalk about these three key forces
that are affecting the demographictransition, aging population,
declining birth rates, and thenthe shifting immigration patterns.
Obviously we're hearing a lotabout the latter in the, in
the news every day these days.
But, you know, can you walk us throughwhat, walk me through what are the
(03:15):
you know, how, how do what, what arethese trends look like right now?
JP Rothenberg (03:21):
So in, in the US and, and to some extent globally, at least in
developed economies one of the largesttrends that we're going to be dealing
with is the, the aging population.
And that is primarily due to.
Generation after World War ii whi,which definitely lends itself to,
(03:43):
to see how far out some of thesemajor events like wars and pandemics
can, can affect the the far future.
So starting in about 2011,the, the baby boomer generation
started going to, to 65 plus.
And you, you had largenumbers start retiring.
(04:04):
And so then by what is it, byabout 2030, I believe the, the
vast majority of the, the babyboomer generation will be over 65.
And what that does for the US primarilyis make a pretty dramatic shift
in the old age dependency ratio.
(04:26):
So that's the, the number of seniors, 65plus versus the, the number of what you
would typically consider working age.
So let's say like 20 to to 65.
So.
In the article we, we raised thepoint that that number was about 20
seniors per 100 working age adults.
In, in 2005, it increased toabout 29 seniors to, to a hundred
(04:51):
working age adults in 2020.
We'll shoot up to 36 by 2030.
So you we're basically goingfrom an environment in the, the
early two thousands where youhad one senior per five workers.
And soon we're gonna be endingup at a number that's over about
(05:12):
one senior to three workers whi,which is a, a very dramatic impact.
On social programs like, like SocialSecurity and Medicare but also things
that directly relate to banking,such as deposit characteristics.
Evan Sparks (05:31):
Yeah.
And that's what, you know, we, we've got.
They're, we've got a if we're, ifwe're looking at the deposit trends,
I mean, you talk in the piece and Iwanna get to the issue with loan trends
where the, you know, loan demand goeswhen you have a significantly more, a
population that has a significantly,that's significantly advanced in age.
But.
What, what are we looking at interms of the, the deposit trends
(05:54):
that we can expect from an agingpopulation with a declining birth rate?
JP Rothenberg (05:57):
So the, most of the, the data I'm working off of here
was actually in two BIS papers.
One was aging gracefully steeringthe banking sector through
demographic shifts in 2024.
And the other was population agentand bank risk taking in 2022.
And both the articles get atthese shifts as the demographic
(06:21):
profile ages for banking.
And particularly here, what they findis that older generation basically.
They tend to hold a lot more indeposits than younger generations.
So I believe it was about twicethe deposits of the, the 55 to
(06:43):
64 cohort and over three timesthe deposits of younger cohorts.
And that is then paired against the factthat seniors don't tend to borrow as much.
So you end up in these regionsand it de definitely tends to
be kind of a regional effect.
Where you'll have just massiveimbalances in the amount of deposits
(07:04):
a bank sees coming in versusthe amount of lending demand.
And so what ends up happening atleast according to these papers,
is that in order to you know.
Put those deposits to use.
They end up looking for youngerborrowers, which tend to tend to be in
(07:25):
areas where they don't have a current.
This is for kind ofsmaller community banks.
And then they go outside their localarea to, to find these borrowers.
And because they're outside of theirlocal area, they tend to bring less
expertise into the local economy.
And then that then in turns drives higherloan to deposit ratios or, I mean, sorry.
(07:50):
Loan to income ratios and also then endsup in causing kind of higher delinquency
rates in these loans that are madeoutside their regions of expertise.
Evan Sparks (08:02):
Yeah, no, that's fascinating.
And, and, and, and it seems likethat's a unique dynamic to an
economy like ours that has lots of.
Smaller institutions as opposed tosay an economy with four or five big
institutions that are everywhere.
They deploy those, they may deploy thoseloans in different geographies, but they
also already have the local, the locallending capacity in those geographies.
JP Rothenberg (08:26):
Absolutely since the, the US isn't necessarily unique in
its demographic profile, particularlythe aging drivers, but yeah, our, our.
The amount of community banks, ofsmaller institutions that have those
geographic concentrations, somethingthat is, is somewhat unique to the us
Evan Sparks (08:45):
And, and that's so, so it seems like this is actually
something that if you go through thisover a couple of credit cycles and
you deal with you deal with the thefallout on the down end of the cycle.
Could actually, could this be a driverof, for an accelerant to further
consolidation or is this, is that notsomething that you'd, you'd expect to see?
JP Rothenberg (09:07):
So it, the paper that looked at the credit quality of lending
outside your local area focused on 2008.
So I, I wanna be careful saying.
This, this deterioration in creditquality is something that's persistent
because it, it, it didn't actuallyappear to be, it's actually kind of
(09:31):
a, a, a dual effect to where, youknow, if you have a higher exposure
to an older clientele, they actuallytend to be less risky in normal times.
But then when you endup in periods of stress.
That's when the, these kind of creditquality concerns come to the forefront.
(09:54):
So going back to, could itencourage consolidation on its own?
Probably not that much.
However, in a stress environment,if, if something happens and banks
are having difficulty with creditquality of their loan portfolios and
you have banks ending up in trouble,this could be a marginal influence.
(10:16):
As to which banks end upgetting sought out stress.
So I wouldn't say in normal timesit's gonna be a driver of that,
but you know, definitely at themargins, it, it would be a driver
of, of bank stress characteristics.
Evan Sparks (10:32):
Now, the shift toward high toward a greater share of the
population in age, in aging categorieswhere then we are, we, it seems possible
that we will end up in a situationwhere we have fewer new businesses
being formed and fewer start fastgrowing businesses being formed.
What is the, what is theimpact of an aging population
(10:54):
profile on community bank?
Business loan demand and you know,commer and, and the commercial
side of the, of the portfolio.
JP Rothenberg (11:02):
So I, I would hazard a guess here, that business formation
largely at 20 to 65 cohort that, thatwe were talking about earlier and.
Unfortunately from 2020 to 2030,that stays pretty consistent.
So even though we saw this kind ofdramatic aging via that baby boomer
(11:26):
generation the, the working agepopulation in general is kind of staying.
Fairly stable.
So from that point, you, you would expectless business formation, or at least
not dramatic growth in the business forformation that would keep up with the
expectation of increased deposits atbanking institutions as seniors hold
(11:49):
on to their assets in safe venues.
So that then kind of spinsinto the immigration question
that we were talking about.
And
us along with most other major developedcountries is, is not having enough
births to necessarily replenish the,the working age population over time.
(12:14):
It's, it's.
Rebounded from the pandemic.
In fact, that's, that's kind ofan interesting stat that during
the pandemic we had a prettysignificant dropoffs in births.
But like the baby boomer generation,we saw something similar where as
the pandemic slowed down that thedeficiency in, in birth actually
(12:34):
caught up to trend by December, 2021.
But then shifting back tothe demographics question.
The, the Wharton Budget Lab did aninteresting paper where they were looking
at the amount of immigration we wouldneed to maintain our growing population.
(12:57):
They came to the conclusion that we wouldneed to increase the immigration rate,
and I, I believe this was based on quotas.
By three and a half times, right?
In order to, to maintainthat working age population.
So in this environment that, that we'reseeing where immigration is being further
(13:20):
restricted and we see that our workingage population is more or less stagnant.
We, we very much need to, keepa close eye on the number of.
Working Americans.
Right.
I'm sorry, I actually forgot the thequestion that we started with here.
(13:41):
No, that's okay.
We were talking,
Evan Sparks (13:43):
I mean,
JP Rothenberg (13:43):
what you brought up an,
Evan Sparks (13:44):
you brought up an interesting point too because I know there's data
from the small business administrationthat talks about, from about maybe 10
years ago that shows that immigrantshave a higher by about 10 basis points,
you know, a higher business ownershiprate, and then they're about three
times more likely to start a businesscompared to the non-immigrant population.
That's, you know, so that's, thatis an additional source of, you
(14:04):
know, of dynamism provided theimmigrants coming in are of the,
are of a skill level to be able totake advantage of the opportunities
to form and grow businesses here.
JP Rothenberg (14:15):
Yeah, absolutely.
And it just goes to, to show how criticalkind of the immigration factor is.
And that is as, as far as demographicsgoes, one of the harder things to predict.
So it adds a lot of volatilityto these forecasts, even though
it's such an important plug.
Into the, the actual, youknow, growth of the nation.
Evan Sparks (14:33):
Yeah.
You know, any, any additionalperspectives, insights on kind of what,
where we can ex what we can, what wecan look for in terms of how these
demographic trends, should they persist?
Should they you know.
I mean, I, I feel like the agingpopulation and declining birth rate
is very hard one to reverse, right?
I mean, I don't think there's anydeveloped country that's figured out
(14:54):
how to reverse a declining birth rate oror at le or even slow it substantially.
But as these trends persist are thereopportunities for banks to capitalize
on while opportunities that will open upthat perhaps weren't available to them?
JP Rothenberg (15:09):
Yeah.
So obviously we, we have achange in customer, right?
So the, the aging populationdefinitely it, it doesn't reduce
the number of people, right?
It just changes the productsthey're interested in.
So one of the key areas that we willlikely see increasing in demand is
(15:30):
this you know, how do seniors managetheir money, manage their finances?
Insurance products for,for older Americans.
And even, you know, you see themortgage related products like reverse
mortgages ages off and kind of getsits finances in order, you know, banks
still very much have an opportunity to,to facilitate those types of customers.
(15:53):
The other side of that is kindof the business perspective.
Banks aren't the only onesserving an aging population.
We, we've seen dramatic growth inbusinesses like nursing homes that,
you know, will continue to, to increasetheir footprint as the population ages.
The.
Other potential avenue, whichwhich might seem somewhat
(16:15):
unrelated, is technology, right?
Even things like AI was, you're,you're dealing with a population
where the number of workers isreducing to the number of dependents.
You need to increase productivity.
And productivity right now has, you know,a great number of very exciting trends.
(16:36):
And you will need that productivityin, in order to facilitate things
like these long-term care facilities.
So is that truism that change,you know, creative destruction.
Is the old economy gonnalook like the new economy?
No.
But as those things shift.
(16:57):
That does bring a, a lot of newopportunities for those that are kind of
keeping track of where the future's going.
Yeah.
Evan Sparks (17:03):
All good insights.
We could talk about this for anotherhour or so but we'll, we'll spare
our listeners, you can check outJP's article on the banking journal
website at aba.com/banking journal.
It's a, a great piece and a good andand, and an important perspective.
So, jp, thank you forbeing on the show today.
JP Rothenberg (17:19):
Thank so much, Evan.
Evan Sparks (17:21):
For our listeners, you can find this in previous episodes
at aba.com/banking journal podcast.
You can also find all kinds ofgreat foresight related content
related to banking on ourwebsite, aba.com/banking journal.
That concludes season eight ofthe A BA Banking Journal podcast.
We'll be off in August andwe'll be back after Labor Day.
Thanks so much for listeningand see you in the fall.
the aging population doesn't reduce
the number of people, right?
It just changes the productsthey're interested in.
So one of the key areas that we willlikely see increasing in demand is
this you know, how do seniors managetheir money, manage their finances?
Insurance products for older Americans.
(00:22):
And even, you know, you see themortgage related products like reverse
mortgages ages off and kind of getsits finances in order, you know, banks
still very much have an opportunity to,to facilitate those types of customers.
Evan Sparks (00:38):
From the American Bankers Association, this is the
A BA Banking Journal podcast.
Welcome back.
I'm Evan Sparks and I'm delighted to bedigging into a topic that we don't talk
about all the time, but that we do try tomake sure we talk about from time to time
because it's really important not for thenext, next six months of bank planning,
but for the next several years ofbanker planning and strategic foresight.
(01:02):
And that is how demographic shifts.
Are changing the US bankinglandscape, we are in a demo.
Demography is destiny, as they say.
We have published several stories on thisbefore in the a b, a banking journal, but
it, you know, we, it's very important forus to understand how birth rates, death
rates are affecting the outlook for banksand how that is a shift, how that regional
(01:25):
shifts, how, how these trends are shiftingbased on different regions of the country
and making sure that we are aware ofhow the changes in population trends are
going to affect affect banks of all sizes.
So to help me do that is someone whois much more of an expert than I am,
and that is my colleague JP Rothenberg,vice President and Economist in our
office of the Chief Economist here ata BA. He has an article in the newest
(01:49):
issue of the a BA banking journal, theJuly August issue on this very subject.
So jp, welcome to the show.
Thanks for being with me today.
JP Rothenberg (01:56):
Thank you, Evan.
I very much appreciate it.
Yeah, so the banking landscape isobviously tied to, to demographic
trends that we're experiencing,and unfortunately, demography
tends to be one of those.
Forecasting tools that's fairlystable, pretty far out, and so.
Making sure we, we take a look at it andsee how the, the future is going to unfold
(02:23):
when it comes to, you know, the agingpopulation, the working population, the
birth and the immigration type statisticsis, is incredibly useful and, and provides
some pretty practical insights for whatthe, the next couple years look like.
And even farther out than that.
So.
Really like working with demographicdata primarily because in at least the
(02:47):
world of forecasting, it's one of theonly reliable long-term projections
that we really have at our disposal.
Evan Sparks (02:54):
Yeah.
So so you, you, in your article youtalk about these three key forces
that are affecting the demographictransition, aging population,
declining birth rates, and thenthe shifting immigration patterns.
Obviously we're hearing a lotabout the latter in the, in
the news every day these days.
But, you know, can you walk us throughwhat, walk me through what are the
(03:15):
you know, how, how do what, what arethese trends look like right now?
JP Rothenberg (03:21):
So in, in the US and, and to some extent globally, at least in
developed economies one of the largesttrends that we're going to be dealing
with is the, the aging population.
And that is primarily due to.
Generation after World War ii whi,which definitely lends itself to,
(03:43):
to see how far out some of thesemajor events like wars and pandemics
can, can affect the the far future.
So starting in about 2011,the, the baby boomer generation
started going to, to 65 plus.
And you, you had largenumbers start retiring.
(04:04):
And so then by what is it, byabout 2030, I believe the, the
vast majority of the, the babyboomer generation will be over 65.
And what that does for the US primarilyis make a pretty dramatic shift
in the old age dependency ratio.
(04:26):
So that's the, the number of seniors, 65plus versus the, the number of what you
would typically consider working age.
So let's say like 20 to to 65.
So.
In the article we, we raised thepoint that that number was about 20
seniors per 100 working age adults.
In, in 2005, it increased toabout 29 seniors to, to a hundred
(04:51):
working age adults in 2020.
We'll shoot up to 36 by 2030.
So you we're basically goingfrom an environment in the, the
early two thousands where youhad one senior per five workers.
And soon we're gonna be endingup at a number that's over about
(05:12):
one senior to three workers whi,which is a, a very dramatic impact.
On social programs like, like SocialSecurity and Medicare but also things
that directly relate to banking,such as deposit characteristics.
Evan Sparks (05:31):
Yeah.
And that's what, you know, we, we've got.
They're, we've got a if we're, ifwe're looking at the deposit trends,
I mean, you talk in the piece and Iwanna get to the issue with loan trends
where the, you know, loan demand goeswhen you have a significantly more, a
population that has a significantly,that's significantly advanced in age.
But.
What, what are we looking at interms of the, the deposit trends
(05:54):
that we can expect from an agingpopulation with a declining birth rate?
JP Rothenberg (05:57):
So the, most of the, the data I'm working off of here
was actually in two BIS papers.
One was aging gracefully steeringthe banking sector through
demographic shifts in 2024.
And the other was population agentand bank risk taking in 2022.
And both the articles get atthese shifts as the demographic
(06:21):
profile ages for banking.
And particularly here, what they findis that older generation basically.
They tend to hold a lot more indeposits than younger generations.
So I believe it was about twicethe deposits of the, the 55 to
(06:43):
64 cohort and over three timesthe deposits of younger cohorts.
And that is then paired against the factthat seniors don't tend to borrow as much.
So you end up in these regionsand it de definitely tends to
be kind of a regional effect.
Where you'll have just massiveimbalances in the amount of deposits
(07:04):
a bank sees coming in versusthe amount of lending demand.
And so what ends up happening atleast according to these papers,
is that in order to you know.
Put those deposits to use.
They end up looking for youngerborrowers, which tend to tend to be in
(07:25):
areas where they don't have a current.
This is for kind ofsmaller community banks.
And then they go outside their localarea to, to find these borrowers.
And because they're outside of theirlocal area, they tend to bring less
expertise into the local economy.
And then that then in turns drives higherloan to deposit ratios or, I mean, sorry.
(07:50):
Loan to income ratios and also then endsup in causing kind of higher delinquency
rates in these loans that are madeoutside their regions of expertise.
Evan Sparks (08:02):
Yeah, no, that's fascinating.
And, and, and, and it seems likethat's a unique dynamic to an
economy like ours that has lots of.
Smaller institutions as opposed tosay an economy with four or five big
institutions that are everywhere.
They deploy those, they may deploy thoseloans in different geographies, but they
also already have the local, the locallending capacity in those geographies.
JP Rothenberg (08:26):
Absolutely since the, the US isn't necessarily unique in
its demographic profile, particularlythe aging drivers, but yeah, our, our.
The amount of community banks, ofsmaller institutions that have those
geographic concentrations, somethingthat is, is somewhat unique to the us
Evan Sparks (08:45):
And, and that's so, so it seems like this is actually
something that if you go through thisover a couple of credit cycles and
you deal with you deal with the thefallout on the down end of the cycle.
Could actually, could this be a driverof, for an accelerant to further
consolidation or is this, is that notsomething that you'd, you'd expect to see?
JP Rothenberg (09:07):
So it, the paper that looked at the credit quality of lending
outside your local area focused on 2008.
So I, I wanna be careful saying.
This, this deterioration in creditquality is something that's persistent
because it, it, it didn't actuallyappear to be, it's actually kind of
(09:31):
a, a, a dual effect to where, youknow, if you have a higher exposure
to an older clientele, they actuallytend to be less risky in normal times.
But then when you endup in periods of stress.
That's when the, these kind of creditquality concerns come to the forefront.
(09:54):
So going back to, could itencourage consolidation on its own?
Probably not that much.
However, in a stress environment,if, if something happens and banks
are having difficulty with creditquality of their loan portfolios and
you have banks ending up in trouble,this could be a marginal influence.
(10:16):
As to which banks end upgetting sought out stress.
So I wouldn't say in normal timesit's gonna be a driver of that,
but you know, definitely at themargins, it, it would be a driver
of, of bank stress characteristics.
Evan Sparks (10:32):
Now, the shift toward high toward a greater share of the
population in age, in aging categorieswhere then we are, we, it seems possible
that we will end up in a situationwhere we have fewer new businesses
being formed and fewer start fastgrowing businesses being formed.
What is the, what is theimpact of an aging population
(10:54):
profile on community bank?
Business loan demand and you know,commer and, and the commercial
side of the, of the portfolio.
JP Rothenberg (11:02):
So I, I would hazard a guess here, that business formation
largely at 20 to 65 cohort that, thatwe were talking about earlier and.
Unfortunately from 2020 to 2030,that stays pretty consistent.
So even though we saw this kind ofdramatic aging via that baby boomer
(11:26):
generation the, the working agepopulation in general is kind of staying.
Fairly stable.
So from that point, you, you would expectless business formation, or at least
not dramatic growth in the business forformation that would keep up with the
expectation of increased deposits atbanking institutions as seniors hold
(11:49):
on to their assets in safe venues.
So that then kind of spinsinto the immigration question
that we were talking about.
And
us along with most other major developedcountries is, is not having enough
births to necessarily replenish the,the working age population over time.
(12:14):
It's, it's.
Rebounded from the pandemic.
In fact, that's, that's kind ofan interesting stat that during
the pandemic we had a prettysignificant dropoffs in births.
But like the baby boomer generation,we saw something similar where as
the pandemic slowed down that thedeficiency in, in birth actually
(12:34):
caught up to trend by December, 2021.
But then shifting back tothe demographics question.
The, the Wharton Budget Lab did aninteresting paper where they were looking
at the amount of immigration we wouldneed to maintain our growing population.
(12:57):
They came to the conclusion that we wouldneed to increase the immigration rate,
and I, I believe this was based on quotas.
By three and a half times, right?
In order to, to maintainthat working age population.
So in this environment that, that we'reseeing where immigration is being further
(13:20):
restricted and we see that our workingage population is more or less stagnant.
We, we very much need to, keepa close eye on the number of.
Working Americans.
Right.
I'm sorry, I actually forgot the thequestion that we started with here.
(13:41):
No, that's okay.
We were talking,
Evan Sparks (13:43):
I mean,
JP Rothenberg (13:43):
what you brought up an,
Evan Sparks (13:44):
you brought up an interesting point too because I know there's data
from the small business administrationthat talks about, from about maybe 10
years ago that shows that immigrantshave a higher by about 10 basis points,
you know, a higher business ownershiprate, and then they're about three
times more likely to start a businesscompared to the non-immigrant population.
That's, you know, so that's, thatis an additional source of, you
(14:04):
know, of dynamism provided theimmigrants coming in are of the,
are of a skill level to be able totake advantage of the opportunities
to form and grow businesses here.
JP Rothenberg (14:15):
Yeah, absolutely.
And it just goes to, to show how criticalkind of the immigration factor is.
And that is as, as far as demographicsgoes, one of the harder things to predict.
So it adds a lot of volatilityto these forecasts, even though
it's such an important plug.
Into the, the actual, youknow, growth of the nation.
Evan Sparks (14:33):
Yeah.
You know, any, any additionalperspectives, insights on kind of what,
where we can ex what we can, what wecan look for in terms of how these
demographic trends, should they persist?
Should they you know.
I mean, I, I feel like the agingpopulation and declining birth rate
is very hard one to reverse, right?
I mean, I don't think there's anydeveloped country that's figured out
(14:54):
how to reverse a declining birth rate oror at le or even slow it substantially.
But as these trends persist are thereopportunities for banks to capitalize
on while opportunities that will open upthat perhaps weren't available to them?
JP Rothenberg (15:09):
Yeah.
So obviously we, we have achange in customer, right?
So the, the aging populationdefinitely it, it doesn't reduce
the number of people, right?
It just changes the productsthey're interested in.
So one of the key areas that we willlikely see increasing in demand is
(15:30):
this you know, how do seniors managetheir money, manage their finances?
Insurance products for,for older Americans.
And even, you know, you see themortgage related products like reverse
mortgages ages off and kind of getsits finances in order, you know, banks
still very much have an opportunity to,to facilitate those types of customers.
(15:53):
The other side of that is kindof the business perspective.
Banks aren't the only onesserving an aging population.
We, we've seen dramatic growth inbusinesses like nursing homes that,
you know, will continue to, to increasetheir footprint as the population ages.
The.
Other potential avenue, whichwhich might seem somewhat
(16:15):
unrelated, is technology, right?
Even things like AI was, you're,you're dealing with a population
where the number of workers isreducing to the number of dependents.
You need to increase productivity.
And productivity right now has, you know,a great number of very exciting trends.
(16:36):
And you will need that productivityin, in order to facilitate things
like these long-term care facilities.
So is that truism that change,you know, creative destruction.
Is the old economy gonnalook like the new economy?
No.
But as those things shift.
(16:57):
That does bring a, a lot of newopportunities for those that are kind of
keeping track of where the future's going.
Yeah.
Evan Sparks (17:03):
All good insights.
We could talk about this for anotherhour or so but we'll, we'll spare
our listeners, you can check outJP's article on the banking journal
website at aba.com/banking journal.
It's a, a great piece and a good andand, and an important perspective.
So, jp, thank you forbeing on the show today.
JP Rothenberg (17:19):
Thank so much, Evan.
Evan Sparks (17:21):
For our listeners, you can find this in previous episodes
at aba.com/banking journal podcast.
You can also find all kinds ofgreat foresight related content
related to banking on ourwebsite, aba.com/banking journal.
That concludes season eight ofthe A BA Banking Journal podcast.
We'll be off in August andwe'll be back after Labor Day.
Thanks so much for listeningand see you in the fall.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Law & Order: Criminal Justice System - Season 1 & Season 2
Season Two Out Now! Law & Order: Criminal Justice System tells the real stories behind the landmark cases that have shaped how the most dangerous and influential criminals in America are prosecuted. In its second season, the series tackles the threat of terrorism in the United States. From the rise of extremist political groups in the 60s to domestic lone wolves in the modern day, we explore how organizations like the FBI and Joint Terrorism Take Force have evolved to fight back against a multitude of terrorist threats.