January 20, 2025 • 56 mins
They discuss the eighteen new semiconductor fabe to start contruction in 2025, form SEMI Reports and the possible disruption that occurs when China goes after Taiwan. They smoke the Diesel Original and drink Rebel Rye.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Welcome to our newest episode in this episode. We're gonna have a diesel original with it the rebel rye
(00:07):
Yeah
You're hanging out with Bill and Daryl with cigars liquor and more
All right, well this diesel original is a fog by 52
It has a Pennsylvania broadleaf wrapper. Yeah
You know, I'm gonna like the broadly liquor. I'm a filler and MSRP is an affordable five dollars
(00:34):
Oh hard to beat that the rebel rye is bottled at a hundred proof as an MSRP of sixteen dollars also
Very reasonable price
This is a reasonably priced
episode so this is distilled and aged in Indiana at Lux Rose sister distillery
(00:55):
MGP
Ross and Squib it's it does have a statement it is
51% rye
45% corn and 4% multi barley and it's two years old nice
Now cold draw was earth and the draw is earth wasn't fooling me nothing
(01:17):
No, not not not getting by that on this one. Nope nice and straight up earth
But it doesn't come across as super bold right up front
Mm-hmm, and that's a diesel thing right these are usually pretty strong. I think this one's gonna be a little bit milder
I saw first job sure seeming like it and it it didn't have to settle in
(01:41):
As soon as it's lit it's really
Smooth it's right there
I think it's nice
It's a good start started out ripe for our budget friendly episode
Yeah, this may be the cheapest episode yet. I mean we're going at three so I
(02:05):
Mean we've had cheap episodes in other years. Yes. Yes. We have this year. It's our cheapest episode
16 and what's a good price rebels good drink
Yeah, it is it's a good drink at 16 and you know the regular bourbon is in the same category
It's right there at 15 16
The rebel yell right yeah, it's what you're talking about yes. Yeah, and it's a hundred proof as well
(02:30):
Yep, so they're not you know, oh, here's your 80. No, we're gonna pour on the hundred
We're gonna we want you to know what's there. We want you to know what's there and they did the same thing with the rye
All right, let's take a take a nose
Nothing to ride home about on the nose not really getting the rye a rye aroma off the nose
(02:54):
Well, I could smell a little bit of spiciness, but you know you're not getting you're not getting the heat
It's not it's not a hot nose at all. No no
Mmm
And the sip is nice
It comes in really really mild and then the rye comes in and says has some spice
(03:16):
Yeah, the spice definitely comes in on the on the middle of the back. Yeah, that is for sure. It's a no weights
It's it
But wait, there's more
It's a very light amber in the glass. Well, it is only two years old
Not like it's for anything or eight or ten or whatever
It's $16, so you guys back to straight right to go on perfectly good with you. Don't get me wrong
(03:43):
perfectly good with yeah, I
Can I could deal with a light amber for for this?
Nice and it's a ride it so it's 51% right
45% corn 4% Martha barley
So it's almost like they couldn't decide
No, I feel like you know I want it common. I want it. I want it. I want it to be rye
(04:10):
But you know right I want it to be too much right right. I mean, it's right
And I'm messing around. It's right
You know what what really not a hundred percent right would give you what?
What what I find really
Strange is
So when we did our bourbon at loan elm our bourbon
(04:38):
Grinding that corn
Was difficult
We wound up having to grind it twice
To get it to get it to get enough surface area. Yeah, we were all comfortable. We wanted a good mash. Yeah, yeah
But
Rye barley
Hell the sorghum the wheat right super easy to grind
(05:05):
Why it makes me wonder why a high corn liquors don't cost more
So is it because they have industrial grinders? They don't have to worry about it like what we did absolutely we had a small
Basic we didn't have that member they so they replaced their grinder. Yeah
And Bill told me the one now would have no problem with oh no
(05:28):
We saw it with our last mash bill. It just
powderized it
It was out the door in a tenth of a second so
Not a great comparison because nobody else is gonna use those grinders anymore
They're gonna use that I don't remember we called it type of grinder or something
But it it was a very different grinder when you looked at it
(05:49):
yeah
so now I
Could see why the corn not an issue for most distilleries because they have the grinder that well low-noun has now
As my guess
But I wanted to mention it. Yeah
Yeah, we just want rubbing in and everybody's
(06:10):
knows that we've done our own mash bill three times now
And see I threw in that we've done it three times
Mm-hmm
And which forces we've got friends that were on this man on the mash bills with us
Mm-hmm that have done it more times than we can oh by a lot. Mm-hmm. Some of like seven working
Awesome. Yes, that's a great experience
(06:33):
Okay, so cigar right
So it will develop a mouth coating mm-hmm and
It's
So I don't get cardboard in the draw
But when I let the mouth coating sit, I don't wash it away. Mm-hmm. I kind of get a cardboard feel out of it
(06:59):
That's just so earthy for me. It's just so earth now. There is more actually the draw
Don't don't wash the draw don't wash the mouth coating away, right? I'm gonna build it out and tell me what you think
Now when you do it washes away really fast. Yeah, cuz I wasn't getting a bill
(07:20):
And then that cardboard just gone absolutely gone. Mm-hmm very pleasant retro to
Very nice brings out some spices. I might try one then. Yeah, it is. It's it's it's gentle
It's not that gentle
It's pretty nice. It lets you know what's there
But there's if you do a lot is nice. Just do a real light do a light one
(07:44):
I saw you did a really heavy retro do a light retro is very nice
Cuz you don't get the pepper and you've done a substantial amount of retros. That is pleasant on a light retro. Oh
Really nice and it brings out spices in the cigar that you don't get just from a draw
You're more practice at the retro than I am. I'm just I'm not
(08:08):
When was you know, we go to cigar bar. We sit on the porch
It's I don't do retrohails
But I'm sure you do all the time all the time
so
Yeah, but you're totally right. It's only been three draws and the earth is now adding paper for sure
And it's a really nice head and there's some some baking spices are coming out too and it's probably
(08:34):
I'm gonna give credit where I want to give credit. It's the Connecticut broadly if I love the Connecticut broadly
I love that rapper. I'm just guessing but
Scientific wild-ass guests
It could be but the
All the sudden I tasted the cardboard. It was a upside surprise for me. Yeah, I I really I really enjoyed that
(08:59):
Okay
Okay, and yeah, there are there are some spices in there but the
the earth
And if you let the mouthcoding set the cardboard or paper
That's just all around pleasant. I got mint now. I don't want to drink as much because
(09:20):
There's a little there's clove. Clove is the other is the spice
Yes, I got paper and I got clove and earth now with the with the drink
It's just earth all day. The absolutely whiskey knocks out the paper and the clove. Yep, but oh my goodness
This is but you don't get it liquor. Okay, so now that you've done it now. It's you've done it now now swallow some of the rebel
(09:47):
All right, switch around get rid of that mouthcoding switch it around
Right give her that mouthcoding and then give it a moment and then do a draw
And you're not going to get
All that complexity. No, that's why I'm a little bum. It's got it. It's got to build but it is there
(10:08):
Yeah, oh yeah at the very least it is there. This is really nice. Yeah
It's been a long time since I had a diesel original it has it's it's I mean, I knew I liked them, but it's been it's been a
quite a while
Well, yeah, it might have been a couple. Yeah for me. It has yeah. I think for me too
Yeah, I don't remember. I've had I've had some other diesels, but it's been years since I've had this
(10:37):
Yeah, I remember it being this good. This is really good
And you know if I see it now I'm I'm not gonna
I
You know already everybody knows already
I detest footbands. Oh, yeah, by the way the original diesel has a footband. It's the only band on it
Kind of like the rocky edge. Yes, there is it is
(11:01):
It's a plus that it's the only band so you have to take it off in order to light
the cigar
Preferably take it off before you light the cigar
So in that way it doesn't bother and it comes off pretty easy
But I just
I've already got to cut it. Yeah, I gotta take it out of the solo. I gotta cut it
(11:25):
Now you're gonna make me do something else before I light it
That's my main complaint. It's my main complaint with a footband. Yep. However
How nice this is
I'd do it again
I would have no qualms about the footband on this one. Yeah
And if you so I did take a drink of water
(11:48):
So if you don't clear the mouth coating with
Whiskey, you clear it with water. You don't you don't lose
The the clove and the paper really dry now. Yeah, it's nice
What about your draw after that?
Oh, it's still well, it is a little stronger. Yeah, okay, so you do lose a little but you don't lose all of it. Okay
So yeah, now now I kind of
(12:10):
want to not drink as much. I don't say that a lot
Buddy
Um
Upside surprise really nicely and five bones. Yeah
Yeah, okay, so I know I know it's still pretty early in but it is
(12:36):
If you had the choice
Between a floridolivia
Maduro hmm
or this oh
That's gonna be tight
Because they're around the same price point around the same price, but so is the uh, the tatawahi pea
It's four
Yeah, that's tough
Those are all right there. They're all
(12:58):
Really good
This would be a very tough budget stick call
Because I think I'd like any one of these these are those are all three good
See it's it's great having choices
at a price point that's not going to hit your pocketbook nearly as much and
(13:20):
Wonderful sticks. Yep
You can't go wrong with this
Yeah, it's uh
Yeah, I'm definitely gonna have to
Again, it's been a while. I don't remember being this good. Maybe I just don't remember
But it's it's really don't remember
Good first third pallet has uh improved over that time
(13:45):
That's also possible. Yeah
Right because I don't know
Maybe last time we had one of these we weren't thinking about it as much. We were just smoking
Yeah
Dimms the brakes
No, great start though. Great start
So five dollars
(14:07):
For the cigar 16 for the rebel rye. Yes
Really nice
And I and I gotta tell you even though
Even though the rebel washes away
the cardboard
Still good
(14:28):
Yeah, because it's still a really nice earth pop. It is a isn't very earthy cigar
When you have the whiskey with it. Yeah, the
baking spice and the paper
Seeps into the background slightly. I mean, it's barely there
But then it's a great earth cigar. So I mean, it's good all around. I like it. No matter which way you go
(14:51):
All right, so what's your what's your favorite kind of earth?
Oh, man. Well, I it's going to be earth that brings in some must. I mean, that's just where I am
Uh
Okay
Do you prefer
Uh more
(15:13):
Let's just stick with outside earth not
Attic, okay, which is where you're going with the must yes
So don't whack. Okay
Dirt
Leaves
Brass
mulch yeah, I like I think I like the mulch
That people's well, maybe called poo or whatever, you know, it's not exactly poo, but you were talking about yeah
(15:40):
That that fresh mulch earth. I like that
People look at you where you're going. Yeah, I like the poo earth
But I mean, it's not exactly poo, but you know what I mean. Yeah, no I get it. Yes, uh decomposing wood
Kind of thing going on in there. Yes, my life. So I
(16:03):
I have a hard time with this one
There are other categories where I don't have as much of a hard time with but I do with earth because it seems like such a
category it is and you
There are
Good things about each of them
And it's okay
(16:25):
The grass is nice because you don't get that often
True, right. It's more of a rarity. So when you get it. It's kind of cool. I kind of like it
It doesn't create a reaction in me. Don't create a rent
But but you you you you get it so rarely
So how does that play into it?
Uh, at dirt earth
(16:48):
You can find a lot of dirt earth cigars out there. Mm-hmm. Yeah
So that makes ease of finding it simple and there are varying grades within that
Uh, and then the leaves I really I think the leaves are probably my favorite
Yeah
They are that's a good one. Uh
(17:10):
And I think I think it's more to do with uh, you know childhood memories
Right during the fall you write the leaves together and you play it on life is though, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah
Nice nice nice good lead
I'm smoking it too fast. I already know that slow down. I know
(17:33):
I just I mean, I'm just I want more
And so it makes it go faster. Don't get ahead of the story
I'm working on have some rebel. Yes
Okay, oh no and breathe
Yes deep breaths
Relax
Yeah, I go back to my yoga here
(17:55):
So
We've talked a lot is a yogurt monks. Oh, no, no monks
Oh
We we've talked a lot about how we need to be more
independent with our semiconductors in the supply chain absolutely
Since we have every expectation that there's going to be a conflict over Taiwan fairly soon
(18:20):
And they make 80 percent of the chips that the world uses
That's could be a very very bad thing. So I looked up
How many fabs are being built?
How many are in america etc etc and I ran across this article from semi.org
18 new semiconductor fabs to start construction in 2025
(18:43):
So this is going to cover quite a few things not just
America
But I think that's what I was looking up. You know, that was what drove me to to look at it
Because we do need this
Um, and and this these numbers don't include research labs. So good
(19:04):
All right, so
We're going to start 18 in 2025 according to semis latest quarterly web
Fab forecast report
Um, they include 200 millimeter and 300 millimeter facilities
So 200 millimeters equivalent of eight inch diameter
And three hundred is 12
(19:26):
So for those that are unsure and and those are expected to begin operations
Between 2026 and 2027. So arguably a little late if China makes good on their
Uh threat to go into Taiwan in 2025, but
Um, you know, we are where we are
(19:47):
So in 2025 america and japan are leading the regions with four projects each
China, europe and middle east regions are each tiered for third place with three planned
And taiwan has two planned while korea and segia each have one
so
I mean, obviously I not interested including china in the project. So those three i don't care about
(20:16):
And the two in taiwan i care less about because they're going to be under contention
as well
So not not exactly what i'm looking for but yes, but t smc who makes 80% of the
Chips out there
Do have a planned plant in?
Arizona yes, yes, we've talked about that one and I think that's very important
(20:42):
Uh to recognize that t smc recognizes
And um, I I have a feeling they're going to build that plant
And then vacate some of the tools
From taiwan to there because you it's it's hard to staff a plant with tools
Because they take so long to build the lead times are long
(21:04):
And so I think they're going to vacate some of the property. That's a guess again me. I don't necessarily think they're going to vacate
I think they're going to take their orders for
um
That that they can run
More dense and and uh more advanced technologies on right and put them in
(21:25):
Arizona right think they're
If I think so think they're going to start moving their advanced stuff over right
Uh, and it's a hedge for them
Because even if taiwan gets taken over there's still a portion us that they can
separate out
uh
Because even they don't want
(21:47):
China the
No, why would they?
So obviously the gender of AI and high performance computing are fueling this
But again, we may need to be replacing some of the
Chips that we are currently getting
Even if they're older technologies
Um
We're going to still need to replace them if we lose some of that tsmc volume, right?
(22:14):
So we got 18
So if we go and start looking at
um
A little bit wider, you know
Casting in that a little bit wider
So covering 2023 to 2025
The fourth quarter 2024 edition of the world
(22:37):
Uh fab forecast report shows that the global semiconductor industry plans to begin operation of 97
High volume fabs including 48 projects in 2024 and 32 projects set to launch in 2025
Ranging all the way from 50 millimeter to 300 millimeter. So that's uh, it's a wide range, but that's
(23:00):
very large volume everybody
Moved
They started moving at least in 2023 to start opening things in 24 and 25
So that's a very positive sign. Yes
Uh, because we're going to need them
Absolutely now they didn't give a breakdown of where all those 97 were but my guess is
(23:21):
also america eurok korea, you know because
We are
Directly threatened
by
losing taiwan volume. Yep, and my company is uh
Has already got
Five some in the way. Yep. Some of the pipeline and they're and they're making expansions to
(23:43):
uh six
Defebs six in uh in richards it
I mean, I'm seeing it come to completion now because our fabs right next to theirs
And so i'm watching it and it's coming close. I see a lot of that construction wrapping up
Yeah, you got our fab and our fab two. I don't know what they officially call it, but our fab two
(24:06):
Yeah
So there. Yeah. Oh, that's right. I'm mixing up our fab with my six. Sorry
So
Other than we've done then we got the ones in Sherman. We got lee high
uh in ohio
So, yeah, yeah, so luckily there is domestic
production coming online
(24:28):
And it takes it takes a good
Year and a half
It does it does to build a factory and get it started. Yes. It's not a short lead time
Yep. So those those are the those are the important ones
uh to get going as soon as possible
uh
the
(24:49):
Assembly and test sites
Uh, you could spring up at a month yeah, those are quicker and we'll need those too because we do so much of it in china right now
Yep. Yeah, we we've got
Mexico
That that we can move into
Uh
You're already in Costa Rica. I think we already have so you can do our volume in Costa Rica is much smaller than Beijing
(25:13):
um if we
If we can get animal
Stabilized again, Panama would be a great place because not only do you have the Panama canal
but uh
They've got
Docks that I mean you could just bring material in right there right so
Yeah, uh
(25:34):
Yeah, we'll see but it is it is a great start to where we really need to go right?
um
I mean not only is china stealing ip
uh and
You know just doing all kinds of bad stuff
but they're also
Hacking us
(25:55):
Trying to hack us there's been a lot of that in the news right so we talked about that recently
That it's ongoing you have to expect that right there's sb nice happening in every country in every way. Yeah, I know I know but
Yeah, you just don't like it when it happens to you especially right
(26:17):
Well when you got everything else that they're doing combined with that right and a big push on all of it right
it it is
It's like a
precursor to an actual war
It is and that's they're building to that because that's what they have planned and they've told that's an amazing part
They told us yeah
(26:39):
But but most people don't consider china and enemy. I don't know why
Because they definitely have aspirations of world domination. Yes
um
So in general though
We we're looking at a 6.6
percent yearly growth rate
for
All of semiconductor and that will continue in 2025 and that's going to be driven by high performance computing hpc
(27:07):
and other applications to continue with the you know, AI generative
Work because that's where so much of it is right now
But everything even your toaster has a chip in it now everything has a chip is everything
Yes, you have to remember even these little old technology small chips are in everything
(27:28):
And if tomorrow you couldn't buy a washing machine or dishwasher you'd be unhappy
So, you know refrigerators
Name it name any appliance
Plenty of chips. So we need all of it not just the high performance and the latest technology and it's such a senior in products
(27:49):
The tools you use to manufacture everything right have have semiconductors in them right
They're all electronic and if they if they break they have to be
You know the parts have to be replaced if you can't get the parts that machine's done right
So that's a problem too all of it
(28:11):
Semiconductor industries intensifying its efforts to build advanced computing capabilities
Responding to escalating computer demands obviously from LLM's large learning models. Yep large language models. Sorry
Chip manufacturers are aggressively expanding their nodes in seven nanometer and below
Which are expected to see an industry leading 16% growth rate so
(28:37):
You're you know it's never think not everything is the highest
but everything's growing
big
So this is boosted by china's chip self-sufficiency strategy, which means they'll be buying less of our chips. So
We need to against find more
Customers as well, but I don't think that's gonna be a problem when we lose
(29:02):
DSM see yeah, yeah
All right, so uh so let's take a break here. Yep, and we will be right back
Check out our website cigars liquor and more calm for more of our podcasts vlogs and support the show by shopping from our online store
Contact us through the website or instagram and let us know what cigars and liquor you want us to review
(29:27):
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At cigar darryl and at bill underscore c lm
(29:48):
All right, let's do a midpoint
um see how we've uh
Let this develop
You want to start or you want me? I've got a question for you as far as the midpoint goes. Okay
How much have you settled back on the rebel so that you could get your paper quite a bit
(30:10):
Quite a bit. I have I have I have backed up on it a lot because I do like the
Additional flavors that come with it. I like the earth, but I want all of it. So greedy now. Are you
disappointed more disappointed or more happy that I made you
Stop drinking whatsoever to get the mouth colding happy with it. No
(30:36):
If I was unhappy with I still be drinking
It's amazing how much something like that can just instantly influence you yeah
Uh, and you know the the choices that you make of what you normally do
Because it is
This one's very great
(30:57):
There's others that they kind of stay out of each other's way and you're like, well, I I'm not I don't
Feel like i'm losing a lot of flavor from the cigar. Yeah, I am. So
Yeah, it is noticeable backed off on it a lot now the liquors may not do this. Yeah
Right, but this one is
So yeah, I've I've backed off a little bit as well
(31:19):
Uh, but man
this stick
Is
Awesome as a really good stick price point flavor
Extra flavor when you don't drink the rebel. I think come on. Yeah, no, it's it's really
Uh, really great offering. I think this one's gonna land pretty well
Now what I mentioned earlier about the different types of earth this one to be is more of a dirt earth
(31:45):
But i'm still loving it
Yeah, I like the the baking spice in this case mostly clove
and
You know the paper that comes with it and we've said before papers
Generally a pretty delicate flavor and we've even mentioned before
Sometimes you still get the paper even with your liquor. So not all lakers knock out delicate flavors
(32:08):
But today, absolutely. Yes, but yeah today it happens to do it
but uh
happy accident or not
Because I wasn't purposely not drinking
It just happened and all of a sudden
Hey, hey, yeah, yeah
Well, I mean we do that in general
We we take a break and maybe just stay with water or something else just to find out
(32:30):
So it's good to find out but right up from regular
We never do it right up front
Well, not right up front because we're tasting and commenting on both. Mm-hmm
But we generally do slack off
Just to see how the cigar changes
We we've mentioned it many times, but
We don't always get this effect
(32:52):
Yes, this is a pretty strong effect. Yeah, upside
It's an upside for the cigar
Yes, yeah, good
Good way of stating that good way of stating that
Uh as as far as the rebel yell goes again. We both slacked off on it. Yeah, so
uh, not getting much of course the taste of
(33:13):
The liquor almost never changes no
But as far as you can see there as long as you don't have a lot of rebel with it for the price points
This rise awesome
This is a really great ride. No
my favorite ri of all time the
special off the october offering the barrel picked from
(33:38):
Nancy the nose freely of our
Sometimes visited when we can get because because you got to get a lot of them from the
Distillery itself. Yep. Yep, but when I can get down to austin
I will pick up still austin barrel picks and they are amazing
No, it doesn't compare to that
(34:00):
But it's a great ri at $16 16
Barrel picks are often 80. Right. So that's a big jump
This is a really great 16 hour ride
You could have this on yourself and I I can't see anybody thumbing their nose up at it
No, I can't imagine if they did thumb their nose up at it's because they saw the label and they knew how much it costs
(34:24):
And you know, they're they're a higher price point person. Yep, but in a blind test
They thought this
All right. So
We do have old fashions in hand. Let's try those and see how it went
So again, this is a ri and we've got a
Walnut walnut bitters
(34:47):
Looking for our fourth bracket play walnut better long time coming
Candy
it is
but
I don't know
I almost feel like it's worthy because it's got a really it's candy
And it's sweet
But the spice still comes through
(35:09):
And the wall is kind of tamed by it a little bit
You know walnut comes out still walnutty something and this one is kind of a wallnut a little I definitely still get the walnut
Of course
If you want to throw it in there, we'll throw it in there you think oh, I know what do you think you think it's nothing
It's too candy
(35:32):
Okay, that's fine
Hmm, let's see what it does because we found because we found out that candy old fashions lose on the first go-round
So
Not all excited about putting a candy old fashion in there
Now the one of bitters in this
The one up for me comes when the back end of it. I don't get it right up front, but I get it on the back end
(35:59):
Uh, and
I don't know
Almost kind of almost puts a little orangey into it as well
And we didn't put any orange in it. No
That part's nice
Yeah, the drink draw still kind of knocks out everything that it's an old fashion
(36:21):
So bummer on that I would still I would lean towards no
I'm leaning towards no if you
Felt strongly that it should be in there
It was marginal
If it's marginal for me and you're like meh, then let's find another one to put in there. Okay, I want real competitors
Well, you know when we do the
(36:43):
Well, there's that we were going to do the three of the the rustles. Mm-hmm. Maybe
While we do that do two old fashions of the the 10 and the
Well, while turkey 101 and see if one of those is a competitor. I like that idea
All right, rinse out some of the old-fashioned
(37:06):
See if we can get the cigar back
Absolutely. I have to I have a aftertaste of the walnut bitters
The walnut is potent, but it sure can make a fun old-fashioned
Absolutely, I'm not that that's why we're trying to put it in bracket play because it does make
Some fun. Mm-hmm. It's a little departure from your standard old-fashioned. Yeah, they've been really the three we got
(37:33):
They're good. They are good. Yeah
But we only have three right now. We need four. Yeah, but the uh, unamash
Yeah, I know right we we're working on it
the
Overall though, this is a car is not transitioning or doing anything. It's it's right where it is
(37:55):
It's right where it is from the very first light. Yep. Like I said, didn't even have to settle in
It was just great. No, it was good from the first light
Great, even though you had to remove a band
You have to
Yeah, you have to appreciate
not you should appreciate you have to appreciate
(38:19):
having a
arguably budget stick. Oh, yeah
That is just just wonderful. This good wonderful
Yeah, and I'll be the first to confess diesel's not at my forefront
No my mind for a stick to pick up often
And this one might change my mind on that. Yep
(38:43):
This is a really good stick. Yep
and five
And what what was the?
This is six by 54
Yeah, five dollars at a six by 54. What's what what's the floor?
This is the five by 52. Oh five by 52. That's right. This was a short one. Yeah
(39:05):
That's what I get for not paying attention still it's a it fine. It's a roosto
But it's a it's a good good size roosto. It's a 52 not a 50
Not a 50 and it's everybody 52. You know how sometimes in order 48
Isn't the the floor to Olivia that would normally get like 48. Yeah, it's a 48 or 50. Yeah, so
(39:29):
I'm telling you
But it is a notable stick
And the the the P that you were talking about
Okay, but I don't come across those as often as I come across the floor to Olivia's
Or the diesel I forgot and I haven't been paying attention to the diesel. Well, I see these those are pretty common in shops actually
(39:53):
I don't look at them for the budget stick
No, but I mean in general I'll see a section of diesel. Yeah before I see a section of tattoo I often yes, yes, yes
but I
when looking for
a budget stick
Diesel's not front of my mind. No, I hadn't noticed that this one was five until I got it
(40:19):
So I mean great. That's what oh, yeah
Yeah, no, let's go with fabulous fine. It's been out there for years, right?
I mean, it's their original
I mean there you go
Even we can even all the sticks we've had continue discovery continued discovery
(40:42):
It's a jam, man
Oh
I got a minute. I love it
Good news. I love it. I'm my goal. These and the sticks good too
Is to make make it difficult for you to rate things
Jeez now that you bit now that you did the guinea pig for rating
(41:08):
This is the year bill
All right, um, you know what let me finish up. Yeah, I've finished out on some of these
uh
Fabs that are being built
so
the
Mature technologies 15 nanometer and above those that's the big those are giant right?
(41:29):
Yeah, I mean compared to the cutting edge. They they are not quite as much expansion
uh reflecting the market slow recovery and low utilization rates, but it's still expected to go 5%
in 2025 so it's under the 6.6 average and far under the 16 average for the the the leaders it's 7 and under but
(41:55):
We need these
Because these are things that go into everything. These are the inexpensive pieces that go in everything
so
I'm glad that's still growing even if it's
A little lower
It's good that it's growing. Well, you've also got some
pretty
Large customer base industrial going on in that in that space as well, right?
(42:20):
It also says found resagnments continue strong capacity growth now my
My hope is that that happens outside of tsmc
But found resupplyers because they're considered a foundry manufacturer. Yep. Yeah, they're expected to remain the leaders in semiconductor
equipment purchases
The foundry segment is projected to increase by 10.9 percent year over year
(42:45):
Uh, so that is a big growth
It's 10 pretty huge with a set with the six six average
The overall memory segment shows measured capacity expansion with modest growth of three and a half
That's pretty low
His memory however the generative AI is driving big changes in the memory market and high bandwidth memory
(43:10):
Is experiencing a surge
so
I'm kind of
Wishing we knew
By region what these growths were doing
rather than just a technology because I want that to be in regions that aren't China and Taiwan
(43:33):
Yes, why not China means nothing and Taiwan is in flux, right?
Now the DRAM is still going to have growth of 7 percent
So that's still you know above the six and a half
And we still at the DRAM segment is your jump drives and your
(43:54):
Your flash memory and that kind of stuff. So
Okay, and and I guess for that matter our solid state drives, right
Which are becoming the norm for your c drive. Yes, so if you've got a laptop or desktop or for that matter
Everything that's a phone
A pad. Yep. You know anything small is using DRAM. Nobody's using hard drive because you can't right so
(44:21):
This is this is important for all that and
I'm
I'm hoping that we can
perhaps
make the the crush of
the Taiwan
Issue that's going to come up this year
Maybe a little bit lighter than it would have been
(44:42):
If we hadn't seen this coming and prepared for it
Because they were preparing in 23 and they didn't really announce they were going to you know
cohort
Taiwan until 24
The big prep and thought of thinking about it didn't really come about until everything shut down for covid, right?
Uh, if covid hadn't have happened, we wouldn't be going this way
(45:08):
That's that's a bill thought. I don't know that for a fact
I think I would agree with that because we saw a lot of supply chains break and said, oh
We can't let this supply chain break. So I think you're right. Yep
And I I think some folks took it more to heart than others
Yeah, but I think everybody in
Especially in the semiconductor industry. I think I think every company has thought about it, right?
(45:35):
Um, I don't think that
Everybody has to wear with all to be able to do anything about it, right?
Uh, only a few do
Which is why I was happy to see the chips act because I think it's gonna
In the fabs and that in the fabs act
Uh, and it should have been far higher than what it was. Yeah. Yeah
(45:56):
Um, that being said
These companies have a lot of money. So I don't know how much we need to fund them
but encouraging them is probably a good thing to build here and
I think that
It worked
And I think the fear
worked
(46:18):
And I think the other for me a pivotal moment during covid was when you had us companies like 3m
Okay, not like 3m
But no, I guess like 3m
So we made
Masks and ppe in china
Us companies and china prevented them from exporting them said no
(46:41):
You can't we're not gonna let it leave the country. We're using it. Yep. And that
I think was a wake-up call that even if you're a us company manufacturing in china, you can't have your stuff
You can't manufacture it for who you want to sell it to if you're doing it in china
Yep, and I think that was a wake-up call because if we're doing even just doing assembly in china
(47:06):
That assembly has to happen somewhere else because china just won't let it leave them. Right. So
I think we had a wake-up call and during during covid more than one way during covid. It was it was masks and
some other things but
You don't know you don't know what's gonna happen next
(47:29):
And it'll be something else right
And so every industry has to think long and hard about this
And what are they gonna do?
I they're gonna have to leave china you
So not leave completely
But appreciate that the rubber makes the road
(47:50):
You're not going to have your parts. So the the us and europe and
And really russia
You know, they don't have the
the
Requirements that you have to build there to sell there
China does right and china is a huge market, but they don't it's their
(48:18):
Their goal
Is that we don't sell there anymore that they are independent of us so that they can keep attacking
and becoming expansionists
So their goal is for us to not sell there anymore long-term gold
They can't do that now. They don't have the strength especially in the IP areas of things to be able to do that
(48:42):
However, they are catching up fast. They are catching up. They are
They're thinking much more long-term than we are. Yeah, we always they always have and they don't give two shits about the environment
That too. They don't have any environmental protocols at ever. No whatsoever. They're not concerned about poisoning their people. No
(49:05):
So
That's one of the main reasons why they can
produce cheap products, right
And
The way that they work all companies
Are owned by china? Yes
Yeah
They come in they say we want that
(49:26):
They get there they they can repatriate anything they want anytime. Yep
so
You
You have to strike a balance between being able to sell in china
At least for now
Which means you have to manufacture in china something you have to do something in china
(49:48):
Uh, and how much of that do you want to affect the rest of the customers that you sell to?
I would be backing off
If I if I were for instance 3m and saw what happened there
I would be backing off any further expansion in china
I would manufacture only what they might want to buy from me not for anything for export well, keep in mind because of their
(50:15):
practices
as a country
She cheap cheap labor very
Because they don't give a shit
And in the same way that you might imagine cars, right?
You go
Well car fuel efficiency
Went down as it went up because as we made improvements we put more emissions on them and that took away
(50:40):
Power it took away
Fuel efficiency it took away a lot of things
China doesn't have
that
So they get more bang for their buck because they don't have any environmental protections. Yep. So
They can
Sell them sell short
In near term
(51:02):
to gain market share gain capacity gain all the things that they need to gain
I guess what my my my question is to china is
If that's your goal at what point do you start to care
And say
Now now we really do need
(51:24):
to act more like a first world country that cares about their environment and cares about their people
and I think the answer is
while you were a dictatorship and
People aren't happy already
then
Doesn't matter what they feel or think
(51:46):
It won't matter
Until they have a voice
That's exactly right. So
Who knows when that'll happen
Don't know
Either way, I'm glad we're building fabs
Because in the very near term that will be our biggest pain point
100% agree
(52:07):
Until they knock out our infrastructure when they go into Taiwan
Well
Yeah, I
I assume they have their tendrils into every
system we own
And when they go into Taiwan, they're going to take out our power grids water and
(52:28):
Communications so that we don't get involved more than we can
Oh, well, there's something
So the great big huge transfer not this not the one
I'm not talking about the ones that are sitting out in front of your house
On on the the electrical pole, right? I'm talking about the ones at the at the at the substations and the transfer stations and all that
(52:53):
those
They have mineral oil in them
And most of those most of the mineral oil as well as the units themselves
Mostly produced in china. Right. So we would have a hard time replacing them. Yeah
And they have really long lead times
Oh really like a year
(53:16):
So you attack those
Right
That's
That's a linchpin to to maybe
So maybe at the station they sent a surge that blows them something like that
Yeah, possibly
It's what hacking does
(53:38):
There's reason why they're trying to hack into our power grid, right?
And that's up
They want us out of the war. They don't want us in the war
And that makes sense because we have been trouble in every war we've been involved in
But there is a bright side and the bright side is
(54:01):
We're trying to manage our supply chains now. Yeah, it is
Because of covid is stupid as all the logdowns were
It went open our eyes to things. Yeah, it does
highlight to people the the
delicacy
Of our supply. Yeah in a global supply chain. Yep
(54:26):
All right final thirds and rankings. We need to do that. Oh, man
I'm glad this is early on for this stick
Will not be what's going to be a stopping point for others to pass it. So it's not going to be any easier
Well, it can't go any lower than three
(54:47):
True enough. I think I know where it's going to be
Oh, let me take a look at it
All right. So
I'm putting it in the number two slot
I'm not surprised. That's where I will put it
Um, and for the liquor, it's easy to decide as well
The rustles and the remiss are definitely better than this
(55:10):
Um, this is a great buy
And later on in the year that will be difficult for me to pass it as well
But for right now, I'm gonna put it in the third spot
Okay
uh, so as far as the
The
Whisky bourbon rye goes
Uh, rebel yield
(55:31):
Uh, the rebel 100 straight rye is number three brussel reserve
Single bourbon one ten proof is two remiss eight is number one
And to remind people of course it is the rums will not be competing with
The whiskies. Yeah, they will have its own category, which will be smaller, but
(55:53):
They deserve their own place because they're nothing like this
And nothing like maybe rise should be two but for right now. I'm not going to do that
Still a whiskey
uh, and for the cigars, uh, number three the
uh, partes gus, uh
This is f Fuentes
(56:14):
Number two this one the diesel original and still number one of course king's gold
Haven't you all right
Off to a great start
Yeah, you're your picks for this year so far have been top notch
We'll see if I make
49 more of them
(56:37):
It's tough it's tough it will be
But for now
Heck yeah
You
Welcome to our newest episode in this episode. We're gonna have a diesel original with it the rebel rye
(00:07):
Yeah
You're hanging out with Bill and Daryl with cigars liquor and more
All right, well this diesel original is a fog by 52
It has a Pennsylvania broadleaf wrapper. Yeah
You know, I'm gonna like the broadly liquor. I'm a filler and MSRP is an affordable five dollars
(00:34):
Oh hard to beat that the rebel rye is bottled at a hundred proof as an MSRP of sixteen dollars also
Very reasonable price
This is a reasonably priced
episode so this is distilled and aged in Indiana at Lux Rose sister distillery
(00:55):
MGP
Ross and Squib it's it does have a statement it is
51% rye
45% corn and 4% multi barley and it's two years old nice
Now cold draw was earth and the draw is earth wasn't fooling me nothing
(01:17):
No, not not not getting by that on this one. Nope nice and straight up earth
But it doesn't come across as super bold right up front
Mm-hmm, and that's a diesel thing right these are usually pretty strong. I think this one's gonna be a little bit milder
I saw first job sure seeming like it and it it didn't have to settle in
(01:41):
As soon as it's lit it's really
Smooth it's right there
I think it's nice
It's a good start started out ripe for our budget friendly episode
Yeah, this may be the cheapest episode yet. I mean we're going at three so I
(02:05):
Mean we've had cheap episodes in other years. Yes. Yes. We have this year. It's our cheapest episode
16 and what's a good price rebels good drink
Yeah, it is it's a good drink at 16 and you know the regular bourbon is in the same category
It's right there at 15 16
The rebel yell right yeah, it's what you're talking about yes. Yeah, and it's a hundred proof as well
(02:30):
Yep, so they're not you know, oh, here's your 80. No, we're gonna pour on the hundred
We're gonna we want you to know what's there. We want you to know what's there and they did the same thing with the rye
All right, let's take a take a nose
Nothing to ride home about on the nose not really getting the rye a rye aroma off the nose
(02:54):
Well, I could smell a little bit of spiciness, but you know you're not getting you're not getting the heat
It's not it's not a hot nose at all. No no
Mmm
And the sip is nice
It comes in really really mild and then the rye comes in and says has some spice
(03:16):
Yeah, the spice definitely comes in on the on the middle of the back. Yeah, that is for sure. It's a no weights
It's it
But wait, there's more
It's a very light amber in the glass. Well, it is only two years old
Not like it's for anything or eight or ten or whatever
It's $16, so you guys back to straight right to go on perfectly good with you. Don't get me wrong
(03:43):
perfectly good with yeah, I
Can I could deal with a light amber for for this?
Nice and it's a ride it so it's 51% right
45% corn 4% Martha barley
So it's almost like they couldn't decide
No, I feel like you know I want it common. I want it. I want it. I want it to be rye
(04:10):
But you know right I want it to be too much right right. I mean, it's right
And I'm messing around. It's right
You know what what really not a hundred percent right would give you what?
What what I find really
Strange is
So when we did our bourbon at loan elm our bourbon
(04:38):
Grinding that corn
Was difficult
We wound up having to grind it twice
To get it to get it to get enough surface area. Yeah, we were all comfortable. We wanted a good mash. Yeah, yeah
But
Rye barley
Hell the sorghum the wheat right super easy to grind
(05:05):
Why it makes me wonder why a high corn liquors don't cost more
So is it because they have industrial grinders? They don't have to worry about it like what we did absolutely we had a small
Basic we didn't have that member they so they replaced their grinder. Yeah
And Bill told me the one now would have no problem with oh no
(05:28):
We saw it with our last mash bill. It just
powderized it
It was out the door in a tenth of a second so
Not a great comparison because nobody else is gonna use those grinders anymore
They're gonna use that I don't remember we called it type of grinder or something
But it it was a very different grinder when you looked at it
(05:49):
yeah
so now I
Could see why the corn not an issue for most distilleries because they have the grinder that well low-noun has now
As my guess
But I wanted to mention it. Yeah
Yeah, we just want rubbing in and everybody's
(06:10):
knows that we've done our own mash bill three times now
And see I threw in that we've done it three times
Mm-hmm
And which forces we've got friends that were on this man on the mash bills with us
Mm-hmm that have done it more times than we can oh by a lot. Mm-hmm. Some of like seven working
Awesome. Yes, that's a great experience
(06:33):
Okay, so cigar right
So it will develop a mouth coating mm-hmm and
It's
So I don't get cardboard in the draw
But when I let the mouth coating sit, I don't wash it away. Mm-hmm. I kind of get a cardboard feel out of it
(06:59):
That's just so earthy for me. It's just so earth now. There is more actually the draw
Don't don't wash the draw don't wash the mouth coating away, right? I'm gonna build it out and tell me what you think
Now when you do it washes away really fast. Yeah, cuz I wasn't getting a bill
(07:20):
And then that cardboard just gone absolutely gone. Mm-hmm very pleasant retro to
Very nice brings out some spices. I might try one then. Yeah, it is. It's it's it's gentle
It's not that gentle
It's pretty nice. It lets you know what's there
But there's if you do a lot is nice. Just do a real light do a light one
(07:44):
I saw you did a really heavy retro do a light retro is very nice
Cuz you don't get the pepper and you've done a substantial amount of retros. That is pleasant on a light retro. Oh
Really nice and it brings out spices in the cigar that you don't get just from a draw
You're more practice at the retro than I am. I'm just I'm not
(08:08):
When was you know, we go to cigar bar. We sit on the porch
It's I don't do retrohails
But I'm sure you do all the time all the time
so
Yeah, but you're totally right. It's only been three draws and the earth is now adding paper for sure
And it's a really nice head and there's some some baking spices are coming out too and it's probably
(08:34):
I'm gonna give credit where I want to give credit. It's the Connecticut broadly if I love the Connecticut broadly
I love that rapper. I'm just guessing but
Scientific wild-ass guests
It could be but the
All the sudden I tasted the cardboard. It was a upside surprise for me. Yeah, I I really I really enjoyed that
(08:59):
Okay
Okay, and yeah, there are there are some spices in there but the
the earth
And if you let the mouthcoding set the cardboard or paper
That's just all around pleasant. I got mint now. I don't want to drink as much because
(09:20):
There's a little there's clove. Clove is the other is the spice
Yes, I got paper and I got clove and earth now with the with the drink
It's just earth all day. The absolutely whiskey knocks out the paper and the clove. Yep, but oh my goodness
This is but you don't get it liquor. Okay, so now that you've done it now. It's you've done it now now swallow some of the rebel
(09:47):
All right, switch around get rid of that mouthcoding switch it around
Right give her that mouthcoding and then give it a moment and then do a draw
And you're not going to get
All that complexity. No, that's why I'm a little bum. It's got it. It's got to build but it is there
(10:08):
Yeah, oh yeah at the very least it is there. This is really nice. Yeah
It's been a long time since I had a diesel original it has it's it's I mean, I knew I liked them, but it's been it's been a
quite a while
Well, yeah, it might have been a couple. Yeah for me. It has yeah. I think for me too
Yeah, I don't remember. I've had I've had some other diesels, but it's been years since I've had this
(10:37):
Yeah, I remember it being this good. This is really good
And you know if I see it now I'm I'm not gonna
I
You know already everybody knows already
I detest footbands. Oh, yeah, by the way the original diesel has a footband. It's the only band on it
Kind of like the rocky edge. Yes, there is it is
(11:01):
It's a plus that it's the only band so you have to take it off in order to light
the cigar
Preferably take it off before you light the cigar
So in that way it doesn't bother and it comes off pretty easy
But I just
I've already got to cut it. Yeah, I gotta take it out of the solo. I gotta cut it
(11:25):
Now you're gonna make me do something else before I light it
That's my main complaint. It's my main complaint with a footband. Yep. However
How nice this is
I'd do it again
I would have no qualms about the footband on this one. Yeah
And if you so I did take a drink of water
(11:48):
So if you don't clear the mouth coating with
Whiskey, you clear it with water. You don't you don't lose
The the clove and the paper really dry now. Yeah, it's nice
What about your draw after that?
Oh, it's still well, it is a little stronger. Yeah, okay, so you do lose a little but you don't lose all of it. Okay
So yeah, now now I kind of
(12:10):
want to not drink as much. I don't say that a lot
Buddy
Um
Upside surprise really nicely and five bones. Yeah
Yeah, okay, so I know I know it's still pretty early in but it is
(12:36):
If you had the choice
Between a floridolivia
Maduro hmm
or this oh
That's gonna be tight
Because they're around the same price point around the same price, but so is the uh, the tatawahi pea
It's four
Yeah, that's tough
Those are all right there. They're all
(12:58):
Really good
This would be a very tough budget stick call
Because I think I'd like any one of these these are those are all three good
See it's it's great having choices
at a price point that's not going to hit your pocketbook nearly as much and
(13:20):
Wonderful sticks. Yep
You can't go wrong with this
Yeah, it's uh
Yeah, I'm definitely gonna have to
Again, it's been a while. I don't remember being this good. Maybe I just don't remember
But it's it's really don't remember
Good first third pallet has uh improved over that time
(13:45):
That's also possible. Yeah
Right because I don't know
Maybe last time we had one of these we weren't thinking about it as much. We were just smoking
Yeah
Dimms the brakes
No, great start though. Great start
So five dollars
(14:07):
For the cigar 16 for the rebel rye. Yes
Really nice
And I and I gotta tell you even though
Even though the rebel washes away
the cardboard
Still good
(14:28):
Yeah, because it's still a really nice earth pop. It is a isn't very earthy cigar
When you have the whiskey with it. Yeah, the
baking spice and the paper
Seeps into the background slightly. I mean, it's barely there
But then it's a great earth cigar. So I mean, it's good all around. I like it. No matter which way you go
(14:51):
All right, so what's your what's your favorite kind of earth?
Oh, man. Well, I it's going to be earth that brings in some must. I mean, that's just where I am
Uh
Okay
Do you prefer
Uh more
(15:13):
Let's just stick with outside earth not
Attic, okay, which is where you're going with the must yes
So don't whack. Okay
Dirt
Leaves
Brass
mulch yeah, I like I think I like the mulch
That people's well, maybe called poo or whatever, you know, it's not exactly poo, but you were talking about yeah
(15:40):
That that fresh mulch earth. I like that
People look at you where you're going. Yeah, I like the poo earth
But I mean, it's not exactly poo, but you know what I mean. Yeah, no I get it. Yes, uh decomposing wood
Kind of thing going on in there. Yes, my life. So I
(16:03):
I have a hard time with this one
There are other categories where I don't have as much of a hard time with but I do with earth because it seems like such a
category it is and you
There are
Good things about each of them
And it's okay
(16:25):
The grass is nice because you don't get that often
True, right. It's more of a rarity. So when you get it. It's kind of cool. I kind of like it
It doesn't create a reaction in me. Don't create a rent
But but you you you you get it so rarely
So how does that play into it?
Uh, at dirt earth
(16:48):
You can find a lot of dirt earth cigars out there. Mm-hmm. Yeah
So that makes ease of finding it simple and there are varying grades within that
Uh, and then the leaves I really I think the leaves are probably my favorite
Yeah
They are that's a good one. Uh
(17:10):
And I think I think it's more to do with uh, you know childhood memories
Right during the fall you write the leaves together and you play it on life is though, right? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah
Nice nice nice good lead
I'm smoking it too fast. I already know that slow down. I know
(17:33):
I just I mean, I'm just I want more
And so it makes it go faster. Don't get ahead of the story
I'm working on have some rebel. Yes
Okay, oh no and breathe
Yes deep breaths
Relax
Yeah, I go back to my yoga here
(17:55):
So
We've talked a lot is a yogurt monks. Oh, no, no monks
Oh
We we've talked a lot about how we need to be more
independent with our semiconductors in the supply chain absolutely
Since we have every expectation that there's going to be a conflict over Taiwan fairly soon
(18:20):
And they make 80 percent of the chips that the world uses
That's could be a very very bad thing. So I looked up
How many fabs are being built?
How many are in america etc etc and I ran across this article from semi.org
18 new semiconductor fabs to start construction in 2025
(18:43):
So this is going to cover quite a few things not just
America
But I think that's what I was looking up. You know, that was what drove me to to look at it
Because we do need this
Um, and and this these numbers don't include research labs. So good
(19:04):
All right, so
We're going to start 18 in 2025 according to semis latest quarterly web
Fab forecast report
Um, they include 200 millimeter and 300 millimeter facilities
So 200 millimeters equivalent of eight inch diameter
And three hundred is 12
(19:26):
So for those that are unsure and and those are expected to begin operations
Between 2026 and 2027. So arguably a little late if China makes good on their
Uh threat to go into Taiwan in 2025, but
Um, you know, we are where we are
(19:47):
So in 2025 america and japan are leading the regions with four projects each
China, europe and middle east regions are each tiered for third place with three planned
And taiwan has two planned while korea and segia each have one
so
I mean, obviously I not interested including china in the project. So those three i don't care about
(20:16):
And the two in taiwan i care less about because they're going to be under contention
as well
So not not exactly what i'm looking for but yes, but t smc who makes 80% of the
Chips out there
Do have a planned plant in?
Arizona yes, yes, we've talked about that one and I think that's very important
(20:42):
Uh to recognize that t smc recognizes
And um, I I have a feeling they're going to build that plant
And then vacate some of the tools
From taiwan to there because you it's it's hard to staff a plant with tools
Because they take so long to build the lead times are long
(21:04):
And so I think they're going to vacate some of the property. That's a guess again me. I don't necessarily think they're going to vacate
I think they're going to take their orders for
um
That that they can run
More dense and and uh more advanced technologies on right and put them in
(21:25):
Arizona right think they're
If I think so think they're going to start moving their advanced stuff over right
Uh, and it's a hedge for them
Because even if taiwan gets taken over there's still a portion us that they can
separate out
uh
Because even they don't want
(21:47):
China the
No, why would they?
So obviously the gender of AI and high performance computing are fueling this
But again, we may need to be replacing some of the
Chips that we are currently getting
Even if they're older technologies
Um
We're going to still need to replace them if we lose some of that tsmc volume, right?
(22:14):
So we got 18
So if we go and start looking at
um
A little bit wider, you know
Casting in that a little bit wider
So covering 2023 to 2025
The fourth quarter 2024 edition of the world
(22:37):
Uh fab forecast report shows that the global semiconductor industry plans to begin operation of 97
High volume fabs including 48 projects in 2024 and 32 projects set to launch in 2025
Ranging all the way from 50 millimeter to 300 millimeter. So that's uh, it's a wide range, but that's
(23:00):
very large volume everybody
Moved
They started moving at least in 2023 to start opening things in 24 and 25
So that's a very positive sign. Yes
Uh, because we're going to need them
Absolutely now they didn't give a breakdown of where all those 97 were but my guess is
(23:21):
also america eurok korea, you know because
We are
Directly threatened
by
losing taiwan volume. Yep, and my company is uh
Has already got
Five some in the way. Yep. Some of the pipeline and they're and they're making expansions to
(23:43):
uh six
Defebs six in uh in richards it
I mean, I'm seeing it come to completion now because our fabs right next to theirs
And so i'm watching it and it's coming close. I see a lot of that construction wrapping up
Yeah, you got our fab and our fab two. I don't know what they officially call it, but our fab two
(24:06):
Yeah
So there. Yeah. Oh, that's right. I'm mixing up our fab with my six. Sorry
So
Other than we've done then we got the ones in Sherman. We got lee high
uh in ohio
So, yeah, yeah, so luckily there is domestic
production coming online
(24:28):
And it takes it takes a good
Year and a half
It does it does to build a factory and get it started. Yes. It's not a short lead time
Yep. So those those are the those are the important ones
uh to get going as soon as possible
uh
the
(24:49):
Assembly and test sites
Uh, you could spring up at a month yeah, those are quicker and we'll need those too because we do so much of it in china right now
Yep. Yeah, we we've got
Mexico
That that we can move into
Uh
You're already in Costa Rica. I think we already have so you can do our volume in Costa Rica is much smaller than Beijing
(25:13):
um if we
If we can get animal
Stabilized again, Panama would be a great place because not only do you have the Panama canal
but uh
They've got
Docks that I mean you could just bring material in right there right so
Yeah, uh
(25:34):
Yeah, we'll see but it is it is a great start to where we really need to go right?
um
I mean not only is china stealing ip
uh and
You know just doing all kinds of bad stuff
but they're also
Hacking us
(25:55):
Trying to hack us there's been a lot of that in the news right so we talked about that recently
That it's ongoing you have to expect that right there's sb nice happening in every country in every way. Yeah, I know I know but
Yeah, you just don't like it when it happens to you especially right
(26:17):
Well when you got everything else that they're doing combined with that right and a big push on all of it right
it it is
It's like a
precursor to an actual war
It is and that's they're building to that because that's what they have planned and they've told that's an amazing part
They told us yeah
(26:39):
But but most people don't consider china and enemy. I don't know why
Because they definitely have aspirations of world domination. Yes
um
So in general though
We we're looking at a 6.6
percent yearly growth rate
for
All of semiconductor and that will continue in 2025 and that's going to be driven by high performance computing hpc
(27:07):
and other applications to continue with the you know, AI generative
Work because that's where so much of it is right now
But everything even your toaster has a chip in it now everything has a chip is everything
Yes, you have to remember even these little old technology small chips are in everything
(27:28):
And if tomorrow you couldn't buy a washing machine or dishwasher you'd be unhappy
So, you know refrigerators
Name it name any appliance
Plenty of chips. So we need all of it not just the high performance and the latest technology and it's such a senior in products
(27:49):
The tools you use to manufacture everything right have have semiconductors in them right
They're all electronic and if they if they break they have to be
You know the parts have to be replaced if you can't get the parts that machine's done right
So that's a problem too all of it
(28:11):
Semiconductor industries intensifying its efforts to build advanced computing capabilities
Responding to escalating computer demands obviously from LLM's large learning models. Yep large language models. Sorry
Chip manufacturers are aggressively expanding their nodes in seven nanometer and below
Which are expected to see an industry leading 16% growth rate so
(28:37):
You're you know it's never think not everything is the highest
but everything's growing
big
So this is boosted by china's chip self-sufficiency strategy, which means they'll be buying less of our chips. So
We need to against find more
Customers as well, but I don't think that's gonna be a problem when we lose
(29:02):
DSM see yeah, yeah
All right, so uh so let's take a break here. Yep, and we will be right back
Check out our website cigars liquor and more calm for more of our podcasts vlogs and support the show by shopping from our online store
Contact us through the website or instagram and let us know what cigars and liquor you want us to review
(29:27):
Anything else you'd like us to talk about and don't forget to check the online store for free swag
The website is cigars liquor and more calm connect with us on instagram at cigars liquor and war
At cigar darryl and at bill underscore c lm
(29:48):
All right, let's do a midpoint
um see how we've uh
Let this develop
You want to start or you want me? I've got a question for you as far as the midpoint goes. Okay
How much have you settled back on the rebel so that you could get your paper quite a bit
(30:10):
Quite a bit. I have I have I have backed up on it a lot because I do like the
Additional flavors that come with it. I like the earth, but I want all of it. So greedy now. Are you
disappointed more disappointed or more happy that I made you
Stop drinking whatsoever to get the mouth colding happy with it. No
(30:36):
If I was unhappy with I still be drinking
It's amazing how much something like that can just instantly influence you yeah
Uh, and you know the the choices that you make of what you normally do
Because it is
This one's very great
(30:57):
There's others that they kind of stay out of each other's way and you're like, well, I I'm not I don't
Feel like i'm losing a lot of flavor from the cigar. Yeah, I am. So
Yeah, it is noticeable backed off on it a lot now the liquors may not do this. Yeah
Right, but this one is
So yeah, I've I've backed off a little bit as well
(31:19):
Uh, but man
this stick
Is
Awesome as a really good stick price point flavor
Extra flavor when you don't drink the rebel. I think come on. Yeah, no, it's it's really
Uh, really great offering. I think this one's gonna land pretty well
Now what I mentioned earlier about the different types of earth this one to be is more of a dirt earth
(31:45):
But i'm still loving it
Yeah, I like the the baking spice in this case mostly clove
and
You know the paper that comes with it and we've said before papers
Generally a pretty delicate flavor and we've even mentioned before
Sometimes you still get the paper even with your liquor. So not all lakers knock out delicate flavors
(32:08):
But today, absolutely. Yes, but yeah today it happens to do it
but uh
happy accident or not
Because I wasn't purposely not drinking
It just happened and all of a sudden
Hey, hey, yeah, yeah
Well, I mean we do that in general
We we take a break and maybe just stay with water or something else just to find out
(32:30):
So it's good to find out but right up from regular
We never do it right up front
Well, not right up front because we're tasting and commenting on both. Mm-hmm
But we generally do slack off
Just to see how the cigar changes
We we've mentioned it many times, but
We don't always get this effect
(32:52):
Yes, this is a pretty strong effect. Yeah, upside
It's an upside for the cigar
Yes, yeah, good
Good way of stating that good way of stating that
Uh as as far as the rebel yell goes again. We both slacked off on it. Yeah, so
uh, not getting much of course the taste of
(33:13):
The liquor almost never changes no
But as far as you can see there as long as you don't have a lot of rebel with it for the price points
This rise awesome
This is a really great ride. No
my favorite ri of all time the
special off the october offering the barrel picked from
(33:38):
Nancy the nose freely of our
Sometimes visited when we can get because because you got to get a lot of them from the
Distillery itself. Yep. Yep, but when I can get down to austin
I will pick up still austin barrel picks and they are amazing
No, it doesn't compare to that
(34:00):
But it's a great ri at $16 16
Barrel picks are often 80. Right. So that's a big jump
This is a really great 16 hour ride
You could have this on yourself and I I can't see anybody thumbing their nose up at it
No, I can't imagine if they did thumb their nose up at it's because they saw the label and they knew how much it costs
(34:24):
And you know, they're they're a higher price point person. Yep, but in a blind test
They thought this
All right. So
We do have old fashions in hand. Let's try those and see how it went
So again, this is a ri and we've got a
Walnut walnut bitters
(34:47):
Looking for our fourth bracket play walnut better long time coming
Candy
it is
but
I don't know
I almost feel like it's worthy because it's got a really it's candy
And it's sweet
But the spice still comes through
(35:09):
And the wall is kind of tamed by it a little bit
You know walnut comes out still walnutty something and this one is kind of a wallnut a little I definitely still get the walnut
Of course
If you want to throw it in there, we'll throw it in there you think oh, I know what do you think you think it's nothing
It's too candy
(35:32):
Okay, that's fine
Hmm, let's see what it does because we found because we found out that candy old fashions lose on the first go-round
So
Not all excited about putting a candy old fashion in there
Now the one of bitters in this
The one up for me comes when the back end of it. I don't get it right up front, but I get it on the back end
(35:59):
Uh, and
I don't know
Almost kind of almost puts a little orangey into it as well
And we didn't put any orange in it. No
That part's nice
Yeah, the drink draw still kind of knocks out everything that it's an old fashion
(36:21):
So bummer on that I would still I would lean towards no
I'm leaning towards no if you
Felt strongly that it should be in there
It was marginal
If it's marginal for me and you're like meh, then let's find another one to put in there. Okay, I want real competitors
Well, you know when we do the
(36:43):
Well, there's that we were going to do the three of the the rustles. Mm-hmm. Maybe
While we do that do two old fashions of the the 10 and the
Well, while turkey 101 and see if one of those is a competitor. I like that idea
All right, rinse out some of the old-fashioned
(37:06):
See if we can get the cigar back
Absolutely. I have to I have a aftertaste of the walnut bitters
The walnut is potent, but it sure can make a fun old-fashioned
Absolutely, I'm not that that's why we're trying to put it in bracket play because it does make
Some fun. Mm-hmm. It's a little departure from your standard old-fashioned. Yeah, they've been really the three we got
(37:33):
They're good. They are good. Yeah
But we only have three right now. We need four. Yeah, but the uh, unamash
Yeah, I know right we we're working on it
the
Overall though, this is a car is not transitioning or doing anything. It's it's right where it is
(37:55):
It's right where it is from the very first light. Yep. Like I said, didn't even have to settle in
It was just great. No, it was good from the first light
Great, even though you had to remove a band
You have to
Yeah, you have to appreciate
not you should appreciate you have to appreciate
(38:19):
having a
arguably budget stick. Oh, yeah
That is just just wonderful. This good wonderful
Yeah, and I'll be the first to confess diesel's not at my forefront
No my mind for a stick to pick up often
And this one might change my mind on that. Yep
(38:43):
This is a really good stick. Yep
and five
And what what was the?
This is six by 54
Yeah, five dollars at a six by 54. What's what what's the floor?
This is the five by 52. Oh five by 52. That's right. This was a short one. Yeah
(39:05):
That's what I get for not paying attention still it's a it fine. It's a roosto
But it's a it's a good good size roosto. It's a 52 not a 50
Not a 50 and it's everybody 52. You know how sometimes in order 48
Isn't the the floor to Olivia that would normally get like 48. Yeah, it's a 48 or 50. Yeah, so
(39:29):
I'm telling you
But it is a notable stick
And the the the P that you were talking about
Okay, but I don't come across those as often as I come across the floor to Olivia's
Or the diesel I forgot and I haven't been paying attention to the diesel. Well, I see these those are pretty common in shops actually
(39:53):
I don't look at them for the budget stick
No, but I mean in general I'll see a section of diesel. Yeah before I see a section of tattoo I often yes, yes, yes
but I
when looking for
a budget stick
Diesel's not front of my mind. No, I hadn't noticed that this one was five until I got it
(40:19):
So I mean great. That's what oh, yeah
Yeah, no, let's go with fabulous fine. It's been out there for years, right?
I mean, it's their original
I mean there you go
Even we can even all the sticks we've had continue discovery continued discovery
(40:42):
It's a jam, man
Oh
I got a minute. I love it
Good news. I love it. I'm my goal. These and the sticks good too
Is to make make it difficult for you to rate things
Jeez now that you bit now that you did the guinea pig for rating
(41:08):
This is the year bill
All right, um, you know what let me finish up. Yeah, I've finished out on some of these
uh
Fabs that are being built
so
the
Mature technologies 15 nanometer and above those that's the big those are giant right?
(41:29):
Yeah, I mean compared to the cutting edge. They they are not quite as much expansion
uh reflecting the market slow recovery and low utilization rates, but it's still expected to go 5%
in 2025 so it's under the 6.6 average and far under the 16 average for the the the leaders it's 7 and under but
(41:55):
We need these
Because these are things that go into everything. These are the inexpensive pieces that go in everything
so
I'm glad that's still growing even if it's
A little lower
It's good that it's growing. Well, you've also got some
pretty
Large customer base industrial going on in that in that space as well, right?
(42:20):
It also says found resagnments continue strong capacity growth now my
My hope is that that happens outside of tsmc
But found resupplyers because they're considered a foundry manufacturer. Yep. Yeah, they're expected to remain the leaders in semiconductor
equipment purchases
The foundry segment is projected to increase by 10.9 percent year over year
(42:45):
Uh, so that is a big growth
It's 10 pretty huge with a set with the six six average
The overall memory segment shows measured capacity expansion with modest growth of three and a half
That's pretty low
His memory however the generative AI is driving big changes in the memory market and high bandwidth memory
(43:10):
Is experiencing a surge
so
I'm kind of
Wishing we knew
By region what these growths were doing
rather than just a technology because I want that to be in regions that aren't China and Taiwan
(43:33):
Yes, why not China means nothing and Taiwan is in flux, right?
Now the DRAM is still going to have growth of 7 percent
So that's still you know above the six and a half
And we still at the DRAM segment is your jump drives and your
(43:54):
Your flash memory and that kind of stuff. So
Okay, and and I guess for that matter our solid state drives, right
Which are becoming the norm for your c drive. Yes, so if you've got a laptop or desktop or for that matter
Everything that's a phone
A pad. Yep. You know anything small is using DRAM. Nobody's using hard drive because you can't right so
(44:21):
This is this is important for all that and
I'm
I'm hoping that we can
perhaps
make the the crush of
the Taiwan
Issue that's going to come up this year
Maybe a little bit lighter than it would have been
(44:42):
If we hadn't seen this coming and prepared for it
Because they were preparing in 23 and they didn't really announce they were going to you know
cohort
Taiwan until 24
The big prep and thought of thinking about it didn't really come about until everything shut down for covid, right?
Uh, if covid hadn't have happened, we wouldn't be going this way
(45:08):
That's that's a bill thought. I don't know that for a fact
I think I would agree with that because we saw a lot of supply chains break and said, oh
We can't let this supply chain break. So I think you're right. Yep
And I I think some folks took it more to heart than others
Yeah, but I think everybody in
Especially in the semiconductor industry. I think I think every company has thought about it, right?
(45:35):
Um, I don't think that
Everybody has to wear with all to be able to do anything about it, right?
Uh, only a few do
Which is why I was happy to see the chips act because I think it's gonna
In the fabs and that in the fabs act
Uh, and it should have been far higher than what it was. Yeah. Yeah
(45:56):
Um, that being said
These companies have a lot of money. So I don't know how much we need to fund them
but encouraging them is probably a good thing to build here and
I think that
It worked
And I think the fear
worked
(46:18):
And I think the other for me a pivotal moment during covid was when you had us companies like 3m
Okay, not like 3m
But no, I guess like 3m
So we made
Masks and ppe in china
Us companies and china prevented them from exporting them said no
(46:41):
You can't we're not gonna let it leave the country. We're using it. Yep. And that
I think was a wake-up call that even if you're a us company manufacturing in china, you can't have your stuff
You can't manufacture it for who you want to sell it to if you're doing it in china
Yep, and I think that was a wake-up call because if we're doing even just doing assembly in china
(47:06):
That assembly has to happen somewhere else because china just won't let it leave them. Right. So
I think we had a wake-up call and during during covid more than one way during covid. It was it was masks and
some other things but
You don't know you don't know what's gonna happen next
(47:29):
And it'll be something else right
And so every industry has to think long and hard about this
And what are they gonna do?
I they're gonna have to leave china you
So not leave completely
But appreciate that the rubber makes the road
(47:50):
You're not going to have your parts. So the the us and europe and
And really russia
You know, they don't have the
the
Requirements that you have to build there to sell there
China does right and china is a huge market, but they don't it's their
(48:18):
Their goal
Is that we don't sell there anymore that they are independent of us so that they can keep attacking
and becoming expansionists
So their goal is for us to not sell there anymore long-term gold
They can't do that now. They don't have the strength especially in the IP areas of things to be able to do that
(48:42):
However, they are catching up fast. They are catching up. They are
They're thinking much more long-term than we are. Yeah, we always they always have and they don't give two shits about the environment
That too. They don't have any environmental protocols at ever. No whatsoever. They're not concerned about poisoning their people. No
(49:05):
So
That's one of the main reasons why they can
produce cheap products, right
And
The way that they work all companies
Are owned by china? Yes
Yeah
They come in they say we want that
(49:26):
They get there they they can repatriate anything they want anytime. Yep
so
You
You have to strike a balance between being able to sell in china
At least for now
Which means you have to manufacture in china something you have to do something in china
(49:48):
Uh, and how much of that do you want to affect the rest of the customers that you sell to?
I would be backing off
If I if I were for instance 3m and saw what happened there
I would be backing off any further expansion in china
I would manufacture only what they might want to buy from me not for anything for export well, keep in mind because of their
(50:15):
practices
as a country
She cheap cheap labor very
Because they don't give a shit
And in the same way that you might imagine cars, right?
You go
Well car fuel efficiency
Went down as it went up because as we made improvements we put more emissions on them and that took away
(50:40):
Power it took away
Fuel efficiency it took away a lot of things
China doesn't have
that
So they get more bang for their buck because they don't have any environmental protections. Yep. So
They can
Sell them sell short
In near term
(51:02):
to gain market share gain capacity gain all the things that they need to gain
I guess what my my my question is to china is
If that's your goal at what point do you start to care
And say
Now now we really do need
(51:24):
to act more like a first world country that cares about their environment and cares about their people
and I think the answer is
while you were a dictatorship and
People aren't happy already
then
Doesn't matter what they feel or think
(51:46):
It won't matter
Until they have a voice
That's exactly right. So
Who knows when that'll happen
Don't know
Either way, I'm glad we're building fabs
Because in the very near term that will be our biggest pain point
100% agree
(52:07):
Until they knock out our infrastructure when they go into Taiwan
Well
Yeah, I
I assume they have their tendrils into every
system we own
And when they go into Taiwan, they're going to take out our power grids water and
(52:28):
Communications so that we don't get involved more than we can
Oh, well, there's something
So the great big huge transfer not this not the one
I'm not talking about the ones that are sitting out in front of your house
On on the the electrical pole, right? I'm talking about the ones at the at the at the substations and the transfer stations and all that
(52:53):
those
They have mineral oil in them
And most of those most of the mineral oil as well as the units themselves
Mostly produced in china. Right. So we would have a hard time replacing them. Yeah
And they have really long lead times
Oh really like a year
(53:16):
So you attack those
Right
That's
That's a linchpin to to maybe
So maybe at the station they sent a surge that blows them something like that
Yeah, possibly
It's what hacking does
(53:38):
There's reason why they're trying to hack into our power grid, right?
And that's up
They want us out of the war. They don't want us in the war
And that makes sense because we have been trouble in every war we've been involved in
But there is a bright side and the bright side is
(54:01):
We're trying to manage our supply chains now. Yeah, it is
Because of covid is stupid as all the logdowns were
It went open our eyes to things. Yeah, it does
highlight to people the the
delicacy
Of our supply. Yeah in a global supply chain. Yep
(54:26):
All right final thirds and rankings. We need to do that. Oh, man
I'm glad this is early on for this stick
Will not be what's going to be a stopping point for others to pass it. So it's not going to be any easier
Well, it can't go any lower than three
(54:47):
True enough. I think I know where it's going to be
Oh, let me take a look at it
All right. So
I'm putting it in the number two slot
I'm not surprised. That's where I will put it
Um, and for the liquor, it's easy to decide as well
The rustles and the remiss are definitely better than this
(55:10):
Um, this is a great buy
And later on in the year that will be difficult for me to pass it as well
But for right now, I'm gonna put it in the third spot
Okay
uh, so as far as the
The
Whisky bourbon rye goes
Uh, rebel yield
(55:31):
Uh, the rebel 100 straight rye is number three brussel reserve
Single bourbon one ten proof is two remiss eight is number one
And to remind people of course it is the rums will not be competing with
The whiskies. Yeah, they will have its own category, which will be smaller, but
(55:53):
They deserve their own place because they're nothing like this
And nothing like maybe rise should be two but for right now. I'm not going to do that
Still a whiskey
uh, and for the cigars, uh, number three the
uh, partes gus, uh
This is f Fuentes
(56:14):
Number two this one the diesel original and still number one of course king's gold
Haven't you all right
Off to a great start
Yeah, you're your picks for this year so far have been top notch
We'll see if I make
49 more of them
(56:37):
It's tough it's tough it will be
But for now
Heck yeah
You
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