May 11, 2023 • 45 mins
Join Ryan Wormeli, Andrew Erickson, and Derek Brown as they largely exchange differing takes about 12 polarizing players. Who is drafting or passing on each of these guys? Is Deebo Samuel draft gold or fool's good? The Pros will tell you!
Sponsors:
FantasyPros Championship at FFPC - We've partnered with FFPC to bring you the FantasyPros Championship, a $350 entry season-long fantasy football contest with $6M in total prizes including $1M to 1st place! Drafts are open today, sign up at fantasypros.com/championship and use promo code FANTASYPROS for $25 off of your entry. Enter the contest before June 1st and draft your team before June 15th for an additional Early Bird credit of $35.
Timestamps:
Garrett Wilson - 0:01:35 FFPC's FantasyPros Championship - 0:04:51 Deebo Samuel - 0:06:02 Keenan Allen - 0:12:03 Drake London - 0:15:16 Chris Godwin - 0:19:02 Travis Etienne - 0:23:40 Dalvin Cook - 0:27:42 Dameon Pierce - 0:29:02 Jahmyr Gibbs - 0:30:52 Joe Mixon - 0:34:01 Deshaun Watson - 0:37:53 Anthony Richardson - 0:40:27
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into another episode of the Fantasy Pro's
Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am many weeks,
but not every week in the off season, of course,
by Derek Brown and Andrew Ericson, both of Fantasy pros
fame debro Ericson. I have been extremely sick this week.
I will spare the gory details for our listeners. I
have already shared them with you. Sorry about that, you know,
(00:22):
getting you off on the right foot here on this show.
But thank you guys for sort of bearing with me
this week as we've prepped for the show.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
But I had to be healthy.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I had to get ready because I really wanted to
broadcast with you guys today.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
How are you guys doing.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
I'm glad you're on the men there, worm. I guess
my first question for you is was it the fire
or the ten pounds did you lose? It's always a
nice crash diet when you get the gi bug and
you're like, well, that's one way to go.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
I lost six pounds in about thirty six hours. Every
coach I was happy with that number, Eric, Eric said,
how you doing.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I'm doing great. I'm enjoying this warm weather that we're
having here in New England. I love the warm weather,
so doing great.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I've got a rare, cold, rainy day out here in Denver,
so we got the reverse weather of what I would
normally expect. It's been raining for like two straight days,
which is two days more than you usually get a
rain in a month out here.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
So it's been kind of gross, but we are happy.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
We are ready to be recording here today talking a
little draft or pass. The premise of the show today
is essentially, you guys are on the clock at ADP
for these players.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
We're gonna run through.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
There's twelve players we're gonna talk about, now, are you
gonna draft or pass on?
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Them?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
At ADP.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
We will jump right in because we want to get
through all these players pretty quickly. Today we will start
with the wide receivers and we will start with one
of the most surprising rankings of all. I'll let Ericson
kind of get into it himself without spoiling it. He
is very high on this player, and that's Garrett Wilson ECR.
Right now, and you know, recording this in the second
week of May, so these are obviously subject to changes.
We get into July and August and September, but as
(01:51):
of right now, ecr on Garrett Wilson is twenty third
overall the FFPC contest Best ball ADP is eight overall.
That ericson you're even higher? Are you drafting or passing?
And I'm assuming the answer is drafting even how high
you are on him.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
Yes, I'm definitely going to be trying to draft as
much Garrett Wilson as I can. I have him ninth overall.
I think that you could take him in the first round.
I don't think that that's outlandish, especially with the thirst
for wide receivers. I'm looking at him compared to some
of these other top two receivers. What's given about Grett
Wilson versus his second year justin Jefferson. I mean, what
else did he have to do as a rookie to
(02:27):
show us that, hey, this guy can take another major
step forward with Aaron Rodgers now his quarterback, last year
without Zach Wilson as his quarterback, Garrett Wilson average seventeen
Fantasy points, six catches, eleven targets, and eighty two receiving
yards per game. Top ten Fantasy wide receiver numbers with
scrubs at quarterback and now he has a Hall of
Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I don't think it's super complicated.
(02:48):
I want to be on Garrett Wilson and you don't
even have to draft a ninth overall. He's gonna be
ready in the second round and you can just pick him.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Yeah, the case is pretty easy to make, especially after
that Aaron Rodgers trade and Debro. I know you're not
quite feeling the same love for Wilson as Ericson is.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I mean, Erickson's got a giant gallon of the Aaron
Rodgers cave sauce. Man, he's drinking enough. He's got them
jumbo straw like I like Garrett Wilson, Like right now,
I've got him at twenty ninth overall wide receiver fifteen.
I'm not as stout on Ericson. I'll pass in some
and a lot of different aspects on Garrett Wilson. And
(03:24):
this is not a shade on the talent of the player.
This comes down to what we've seen at Aaron Rodgers
and Nathaniel Hackett and oh, by the way, Todd Downing's fumbling,
moronic self is also in New York. These are the
people that you know are caretaking this jet's passing offense.
And what have we seen when Rogers and Hackett have
(03:45):
been together before, It's been a slow, slow offense. Yes,
they pass a good bit, but my worry is what
is the ceiling of targets to put Garrett Wilson this high?
I mean, even if you're looking at okay, he Garners
targets the same realm he was at last year when
he was a full time player, twenty six percent target chair,
but he was only thirty first in targets per route run.
(04:06):
So if we're not getting the play volume. I like
Wilson as like a mid wide receiver too. I just
have a lot of problems trying to get him into
that wide receiver one range.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
De Bro, can you remind me not that I'm saying
you're letting this sort of swear your ranking. I know
Ericson was really high on Garrett Wilson as a rookie.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
He was his number one receiver in that class. Where
was he in the class for you? I can't remember.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
He was top top two, top three. Drake Lindon was
my number one. I think I had Watson was my two.
Wilson was either my three or my four.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Trying to remember back yep, yeah, I just I remember.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
You know, Ericson has been very high Garret Wilson for
quite a while, so it kind of is very easy
to write that narrative too, now that Aaron Rodgers is
there and I side with him. Yeah, very very much
on brand. Guys, how would you feel about making one
of our fans a literal millionaire? Because I want to
do just that by taking a moment to talk about
our FFPC Fantasy Pros Championship. Of course, we just talked
(05:03):
about the best ball adp for Garrett Wilson eighteenth. Overall,
we'll be giving those numbers throughout the show, but I
want you guys to join ffpc's Fantasy Pros Championship for
a chance to win six million dollars in total prizes,
including a one million dollars grand prize. Free Fantasy Pros
and Betting Pro subscriptions are up for grabs as well.
Sign up now at Fantasypros dot com Slash Championship and
(05:23):
use promo code Fantasy Pros to save twenty five dollars
on your entry. Enter before June first, which is just
a few weeks away. And draft before June fifteenth, which
is a little over a month away, to score an
extra thirty five dollars early bird credit. In each twelve
team league, you'll navigate a twelve week regular season with
weekly waivers and lineup decisions, but no trades. The top
(05:44):
two seeds and each league's playoff champ will advance to
the championship round and compete for the one million dollar
prize during weeks fifteen to seventeen. Don't miss out. Visit
fantasypros dot com Slash Championship and use promo code Fantasy
Pros for twenty five dollars off your entry.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Oh and happy drafting.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Let's move on to our next wide receiver here, Deebo
Samuel Erickson.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Are you drafting or passing him? At thirty ninth overall
in ECR.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
I would be probably drafting Deebo Samuel in this range.
I'm right kind of in range here with my ranking
of him at thirty ninth overall as well, So I
could be going either way with Deebo if I need
a wide receiver when I'm drafting, I think it's fine. Look,
he's someone that I'm not really overly bullishan or bear Sean.
I think that he's priced appropriately where he is. I
don't want to call on the show and say, oh
I love Deebo, I hate Deebo. I'm pretty lukewarm on
(06:33):
Deebo Samuel, and I see the appeal of him taking
him in the third or fourth round where if rock
Perty is the starter. Again, look when rock Perty was
under center and Deebo was healthy, it was Deebo Samuel
that was first in target chair. He was the most
efficient for me guards per route run perspective, fourteen fantasy
points per game. His average out of the target was horrible,
but that's because he's a yack monster. So if rock
(06:55):
Purty is coming back where he's not pushing the ball
down field because he has this lingering elbow injury where
it's like he's not really pushing the ball downfield, well
that probably means gonna be a lot of underneath targets
to Deebo Samuel. And we always see with this forty
nine ers offense where if one guy goes down, every
other guy just blows up in terms of production. So
it's hard to see a scenario where Kittle, McCaffrey, Ayuk
(07:17):
and Deebo all hit ADP. Whoever stays healthy usually does
return on their investment.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
It tells you that I spend too much time talking
to Deebro because I always want to call him Debro
Samuel on accident uh FFPC bestball ADP on Samuel.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Is it lower than ECR.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
It's forty eighth overall, But Deebra, I think you're still
probably passing on him there right.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
Oh, I'm burying Deebo Samuel, pass pass pass past. I
don't want I don't want anything to do with it.
I know Ericson doesn't want to come in here and
say that he doesn't want anything to do with Deebo Samuel.
I want nothing to do with Deebo Samuel, like he
is being drafted in a lot of different aspects as
a wide receiver two and I don't understand that at all.
Like I get Erickson's points about like okay, he had
(07:59):
the same tour share because I went back and looked
at the splits without CMC. With CMC, similar target share
hovering around twenty four percent targets per route run was
the same. My problem with Debo and not even equating
like rock Party in the arm issues. But again another
concern you add in also the concern Ericson was talking
about the injury history. Debo's got one of those. But
(08:22):
my biggest problem with Debo is where's the high leverage usage? Like,
where are the money targets that we want? He's not
getting the looks deep downfield. The breakout season, he was
averaging almost a deep target per game. That dropped to
a half last last year. His aid DOT went to nothing,
like Ericson was talking about, from eight point one to
(08:42):
four point two. And in the eight games we saw
a full time Christian McCaffrey, he got four red zone targets.
So it's like, if he's not going to get these
rushing attempts, if he's not getting deep targets, if he's
not getting red zone looks, where the hell are the
fantasy points coming from? Like he's an empty p PR
guy in a run first offense with a quarterback with
(09:04):
a hurd arm or trying to come back from it
with a pop gum arm to begin with. Ah, Like
I'm not seeing the appeal here, guys. I feel like
we're still living off of Deebo Samuel of twenty twenty
one instead of what Deebo Samuel was last year.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, I don't know if I just miss you saying
you have him at seventy fifth overall, which is I
believe the lowest you have of any running back or
receiver that we have slated to talk about. We have
receiver thirty six, very just barely a wide receiver three
for you?
Speaker 5 (09:36):
Wait, where do you have a UK ranked?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
I've got you. Where are you at? Brandon? I you
wide receiver twenty five?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
So why are you so much higher on a YU
than Debo? Like, do you think I use a better
receiver than Debo? Or do you think Debo's gonna get hurt?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
I think I think there's a lot of different things.
Brandon Ayyuke actually gets targets past three yards down the field,
He gets deep targets, And yeah, I think Brandon and
Ayuk is a better wider receiver hands down. Like if
you put Brandon Ayuk on any other team, I think
we'd be talking about Brandon Ayuk as like a possible
alpha and like he would be top fifteen, top twelve
type of wide receiver talent.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
So then why didn't I you have target Debo when
Purtty was under center last year?
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Then?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
Because party doesn't throw the ball deep, but he's you
just said that that's good for Ayuk as he's used downfield,
but you just said Perry doesn't throw the ball downfield.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
So I don't know. I mean, I think that your
gap I mean.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Between Samuel and Ayuk honestly, I mean, I'll go with
the guy that I think is more talented and is
not gonna get five targets for a grand total of
negative seven air air yards a game. But then Debo
like creates yards on his own, Like he's one of
the best yards after the catch receivers and better after
the catch than Ayuki is. So I don't think you're
giving enough credit to Samuel as a talent. Like the
(10:47):
dude's still super talented.
Speaker 5 (10:48):
I like him.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
I like you think you are thirty five receivers better
than Deebo Samuel he was.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
A wide receiver three last year ericson He's wide receiver
twenty eight and fantasy points per game?
Speaker 5 (10:58):
What what was I spelling that? What was I higher
than that? Not by thirteen or fifteen spots?
Speaker 1 (11:07):
If if the forty nine ers, I just very quickly
if the forty nine ers end up like because of
the injury lingers or because Trey Lance gets back and
healthy and they're like, for whatever, for whatever reason, brock
Purty isn't under center at some point during the season
in San Francisco, Are you sort of changing your tune
on that debro and maybe liking Deebo a bit higher
at that point?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
No?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I mean, I just I hate Deebo's role in this offense. Like,
if he's not getting the rushing attempts, where are the
opportunities for him to really score fantasy points? Because his
role even if you want to equate a lot of
volume to it, which in a run first offense, Eh,
I don't know how we're getting there. But even in
volume aspects where the touchdowns, Oh is he going to
(11:49):
run those in?
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Wait, those are going to go to see him seeing
Elijah Mitchell, He's not going to get those. Or maybe
they have like different trick packages for Trey Lance. Who
the hell knows, man, it's Kyle Shanahan. The juice is
gonna and snake him at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Yeah, let's do it to our next receiver.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Keenan Allen ECR forty third overall FFPC, Best ball ADP
fifty first overall, Deebra, I'll start with you. Here, are
you drafting or passing at fifty first overall?
Speaker 3 (12:16):
I am locking Keenan Allen in I love him so
much this year, And I understand people want to play
recency bias with the injuries and things like that. Prior
to last year, Keenan Allen was basically a lock to
start at least thirteen to fifteen games. Over you're looking
at like four to five seasons before last year, and
oh what did he do when he was healthy? Like,
(12:38):
recency bias is really getting to people. And it's not
even the good kind of recency bias, because the last
time we saw a Keenan Allen he was amazing. So yes,
I have him as wide receiver eleven right now, nineteenth overall.
Do you have to draft him in the second round. No,
But even if you're taking him at the top of
the third, you're going to be ahead of consensus. Like
(12:59):
FFBC had him as fifty first overall, our ECR has
him as forty third. Did Keenan Allen just retire? I
don't understand this because last year when he was on
the field, he was wide receiver three in Fantasy points
per game, the market which he was producing over the
full season would have put him behind like only justin
(13:19):
Jefferson and AJ Brown. He was top ten in PFF
receiving grade, top twenty one yards per up run targets
here basically everything you look at. And now Kevin Moore
is coming to town. We're going to have a more
fast paced offense, more passing volume. What do we not
like here? And if you're drafting Mike Williams, head of
Keenan Allen, just burn your money. Just go ahead, drop
(13:43):
it in a trash can and light it on fire,
because then I really have no You have no chance
if you're doing that.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Eric sent are you drafting or passing on Keenan Allen.
Speaker 5 (13:52):
I'm drafting him where he's going.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
I'm not going to draft him at wide receiver eleven,
but I'm fine where his ADP is.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
I have in forty ninth. Overall, his best ball.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
ADP is fifty first, the ECR ranking is forty third,
So yeah, I think that he's a good value where
he is going. Again, you mentioned some of the concerns
going back from last year where he's thirty one years old,
and I guess my band concern is he's a volume
dependent receiver. Like I know that he was more efficient
last year, but that's because he played less games. Like
we have to like stop getting caught in the efficiency
trap where it's like, oh, this guy was so efficient.
(14:21):
He's like, yeah, because the sample size is smaller, So
like that's why he's more efficient, versus when you actually
extrapolated over a full season, it's not going to be
as efficient. So, yes, he was super productive in the
games that he played last year, but I guarantee if
he'd played a whole season, it was not going to
be reflected in that specific category. You also look at
look Micha Williams is back. They added a guy in
the first round, Quentin Johnson, Like that matters, Like he's
(14:44):
gonna play and he's gonna get targets in this off
in some way, shape or form. So anything that's going
away from Keenan Allen's total target volume I think is
a downfall with his fantasy upside. So I view him
more as in the wide receiver two range. But I
think he's really safe. I think the officer really secure floor.
And I do like the addition of Kellen Moore as
the offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Also, they did bring back Eckler, which was a question
mark at one point in the offseason, and that's a
running back is gonna catch a lot of passes too,
So there are a lot of mouths to feed in
this offense. Even if Keenan Allen is sort of the
alpha in the offense, Let's move to Drake London, a
guy that Debro has already professed his love for a
little bit on the show ALREADYPC vestball adp is fifty
eighth overall, ECR fifty first overall, Deebra I'll start with
(15:27):
you again, drafting or passing.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
I'm drafting him. I mean, I'm firmly ahead of consensus.
And I know maybe I'm just drinking the sauce, and
I know all the Arthur Smith jokes are out there.
I haven't a thirtieth overall wide receiver sixteen. A lot
of this goes to, yes, I'm drafting a lot of
wide receivers early. You're telling me PPR formats and especially FFPC.
I want guys that are going to earn a lot
of targets. I mean, last year, even if we want
(15:51):
to talk about the Arthur Smith offense, Drake Lonnon in
his rookie season was twenty second twenty second in raw
target volume. It's not like he got eighty targets last year.
He was fifth in target share and second in targets
per rout run like. Basically, he was operating as an alpha.
And I'm not a huge fan of Desmond Ridder, but
over the last part of the season weeks thirteen through eighteen,
(16:13):
and I get Bill Erickson's probably gonna bring up the
Kyle Pitts was out. I understand that those are the
only two guys you really have to worry about in
this passing attack. Though he was wide receiver twenty over
that stretch of weeks thirteen through eighteen, and that was
without any touchdowns zero zero touchdowns if he got in
theian Zel once or twice. We're talking about Drake Lunnon
(16:34):
producing as close to a wide receiver one in that span.
He's got the talent and he earns targets to be
an alpha. Now, I got questions about the passing volume,
but am I going to pass up Drake Lennon as
a wide receiver two? No way.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
I also think that the offense has a chance to
be more efficient now that it's not Mariota for a
full season, Like your mileage made very on Desmond Ridder.
But even if let's se Ridder is bad, they have
Taylor Heinekee there. Now we saw him Washington. He was
very happy to Peppery's best receiver with targets when he
was the guy actually in the game. He was throwing
to Terry mcclurein not that he's you know, particularly great,
but he was giving volume to those top guys. So
(17:11):
I think you could see that play out with London theoretically.
Eric said, I know you're lower on London than deebro Is.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
I mean, I'm just terrified of this passing game, Like
I don't believe in Desmon Ridder. Like I went back
and rewatched his last game Week eighteen, and he basically
did nothing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting defense. It
was literally only till the Buccaneers rested their starters because
I didn't have anything to play for. And then you
started seeing Ridder throw touchdowns to wide open players because
(17:37):
defenders fell down. Like I got major, like if Ryan
Tannehill was a quarterback here, I feel way better about
Drake London. But like I can't just ignore the fact that, yeah,
he's gonna have high target share in the offense that
passes the least amount in the NFL, Like his target
is his target share going to be higher or lower
than it was last year? It's like it was really
really high last year and now Kyle Pitt's coming back
into the fold. Look weeks one through eleven with Ky,
(18:00):
he had two top twenty four finishes. He had a
twenty seven percent target chair and finish as a wide
receiver two twice, and all those games he was one
point sixty six yards per route run thirty eighth. Like,
I get the talent argument for Drake London, but at
the end of the day, it's like, look, man, if
I pass on it a talented receiver. Look, there's a
lot of talented wide receivers now, especially young ones. I'd
(18:21):
rather take my shots than someone that's going to more
pass heavy offense Versus a guy like Drake Lundon, where
it's like, yeah's sup efficient, but it's like, hey, you
only got five six targets a game. It's like, is
that gonna beat me if I don't take him as
a wide receiver?
Speaker 5 (18:32):
Two.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
That's why I have him ranked where I have him
at the high end of the wide receiver two territory,
like wide receiver twenty four to twenty five range. If
I get him there, I feel better about it. But
I can't take him in the mid wide receiver two range.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Yeah, to play Devil's advocate against my own argument for London,
you also can't ignore the fact that they added Jean
who A can be a threat in the passing game,
and b is somebody that Arthur Smith is going to
want to give like three hundred and fifty touches this year,
So we might actually even see fewer passes this season
of this offense than we did last season. Let's move
to our last receiver here. Chris Godwin ADP and FFPC
(19:07):
is seventy fifth overall. ECR is highering that fifty fourth
overall ericson what say you draft your pass.
Speaker 4 (19:14):
I'm drafting Chris Godwin, and I guess I kind of
view Chris Godwin as my version of debros keenan Allen,
where he's going to getting written off because all the
quarterback play is going to be really bad. He was
banged up last year. He was wide receiver three in
terms of fantasy points when he was healthy from weeks
four for the rest of the season. Now, the passing
volume isn't going to be the same without Tom Brady
in this offense, but he's coming. He's another year removed
(19:36):
from his ACL injury, which we were all concerned about
just drafting him in general.
Speaker 5 (19:40):
Last year.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
It's like, how healthy is this guy going to be?
And he got reinjured Week one. So adding that additional
layer of context to the conversation for Chris Godwin, Look,
I faded Metcalf, I faded Lockett all last year because
of the quarterbacks geno, like, oh, I can't do it,
and those guys end up being great values, especially Tyler Lockett.
So that's how I kind of view Chris Goblin's like,
you know what, Baker Mayfield, He's not great.
Speaker 5 (20:02):
No, he was bad last year.
Speaker 4 (20:03):
He was better on the rams, which I think matters
because the new offensive coordinator for the Tampay Buccaneers, Dave Canal's,
is coming from the same offensive system that Sean McVay runs,
that Shane Waldern runs. Baker Mayfield's gonna be familiar with
this system, and Chris Godwin is gonna get peppered with
targets from the slot from a team that's always going
to be losing games. So I like Chris Godwin. I
think that he's a screaming value. Seventy fifth overall for
(20:25):
Chris Godwin, who's been a top fantasy wide receiver for
multiple seasons another year removed from injury.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, I think the value is way too good.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
To pass up on Chris Godwin in my opinion. So
that's why I have him forty second overall as a
top twenty receiver.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Dee, bro, what do you think?
Speaker 3 (20:39):
I want nothing to do with Chris Godwin, Man, I
want nothing to do with wide receivers tied to freaking
Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield. I think, Ericson, I love you, man,
but I think you're giving Baker a pass here. I
mean even with the Rams, Like, yeah, he had the
great game where like they came back and won the game.
His yards per attempt in his other starts in that
start six point six? Was he throwing to's he thrown to?
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Playing?
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Is Cooper Cup playing in those games? No?
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Did you watch the Tampa Bay passing offense last year?
How many weeks do we say, oh, this offense looks
broken Like.
Speaker 5 (21:12):
Chriscott putting up numbers. What do you mean he just
did score a touchdowns and there's like a free and
pace and passive rate.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Where do you think they'll be at this year? Are
they gonna even sniff close to that? Ericson?
Speaker 4 (21:22):
I mean, I think they probably around the league average.
I think that's a I mean, I wouldn't say you
can't say they're gonna pass as often as they do
with Brady, of course, because they can't. They're not physically possible.
But it's not you can't just say, oh, well, they're
gonna be thirty first and pass attempts. That doesn't make
a lot of sense either, based on the fact that
they're not a good team. So I would say league
average is probably appropriate. And Baker Mayfield can throw the football.
It's not like he's like enable to produce passers, and
(21:45):
he's been good before at certain spots his career. I
don't think he's that great, But it's it's the price
for Godwin, Like, so then what's the price for Godwin
where you would actually draft? Because you say you haven't
ranked seventy third, his best ball ADP is seventy fifth,
So according to your rankings, you would draft him if
he's available at seventy five overall correct.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Yeah, I'll take some shots on him. But I mean
for the large part of it, Like I think that
he's gonna rise a little bit closer to we get
to Week one and stuff. I mean, I've got.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
People hate Baker Mayfield. I mean, you just talked about it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
I can video ericson takes one training camp video, Kyle
Trask going on there and.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
Throwing tent camp videos only worked for these days three
rookies shosh downs? Is ADP skyrocketing for a slot receiver
that's gotta get three targets a game.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
I feel I feel like I'm having the same conversation
that we did with Debo. It's because Chris Godwin's usage
last year was terrible. I mean, the similar things we
talked about with Deebo, Like he was ninety sixth, like
barely a top one hundred receiver in deep targets.
Speaker 5 (22:46):
How many deep targets is canon?
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Allen get one doesn't have to worry about deep targets
whenever they're gonna possibly lead the league in passing attempts?
Can we say that for Tampa Bay?
Speaker 4 (22:57):
I mean they're gonna be in the They're gonna be
in the middle, well, the middle range.
Speaker 5 (23:02):
Here, let's competition, LA's competition in Tampa.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
All right, I got a wrangle on this day.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
We'll get to the running backs and quarterbacks next, But
first I want to thank everybody who's watching today's show
on YouTube. For those only listening on the audio, we
thank you too, of course, but you're missing out on
half the fun. So check us out at YouTube dot
com slash Fantasy Pros and be sure to subscribe if
you like our content because it really does help us out. Plus,
you can click the bell until it goes ding to
get notified of all our latest podcasts, short videos, and
(23:31):
live streams. Guys, let's move to the running backs here.
We'll start with Travis Etn ECR nineteenth overall FFPCADP is
twenty sixth overall.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Ericson where are you at on Travis Etn? Drafting or passing?
Speaker 4 (23:44):
So I'm gonna be drafting Travis Etn most of the time.
I have him twenty fifth overall. Right, where his best
ball ADP is in the FFPC last year when he
was healthy Week seven through seventeen after they got rid
of James Robinson RB eight in points per game, fifth
and carries inside the ten yard line. He only scored
four touchdown besides twenty three goal line carries. Touchdown regressions
(24:04):
coming for Travis Etn, which is why I think it's
gonna work out in his favor. And looking at the
Jacksonville Jaguars offense last year, everybody stayed healthy. Everybody Evan
Ingram stay healthy. Marvin Jones stay healthy, Christian Kirk stay healthy.
It's not gonna happen again. Someone's gonna get hurt. And
that's what you're gonna see a boost for Travis Etn
in the passing game as a result.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Quick quickly, Eric saying, are you at all nervous about
Tank Bigsby?
Speaker 5 (24:26):
No, stoot.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
I don't think Tank is that good. I think I
don't think he's that good. Nothing about his profile screamed
out to me. They like, oh man, this guy, oh man,
he's really good.
Speaker 5 (24:35):
He was in the third round.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
I didn't scream at you. That didn't put up a
red flag and say look at this.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
Trent Balkey drafts running backs every single year. Okay, just
another running back ran Davis Price. He was a third
run pick last year.
Speaker 5 (24:47):
What did he do? Literally nothing?
Speaker 3 (24:49):
All right, do you wrote draft your pass I'm passing
on Travis Etn. And the thing about it is, I
don't hate the player, but I put stock in the
fact of one of the numbers that you brought up ericson,
you said is gonna be touchdown regression. I put that
as the fact that Travis Etn was not great in
his red zone role. Part of that could be that
(25:11):
maybe he's just not a good goal line runner. That
thus you get Tank Bigsby in the house. Travis Etn
last year at a sixty five qualifying running backs, he
was fifty seventh in red zone touchdown conversion rate. That
is abysmal. And even if we want to say, like, okay, well,
Travis et In's a good pass catcher, right, where was
(25:32):
the passing volume for him? Like I think Tank Bigsby
is going to have a standalone role in this offense.
I don't think that they just sewed a third round
pick in to sit here and have him sitting on
the depth chart when they already had jamiael Hasty. They
signed to Ernest Johnson, who have both shown to be
capable backups. You don't spend a third round pick on
a guy that you're just gonna park on the bench
as a and keep the seat warm. For Etn, Etn
(25:55):
was not getting targets, so like, if he's not getting
the early down work, if I'm worried about the red
zone work, like I have him at RB twenty one,
but I've dropped into sixty fourth overall because there's running backs.
If I'm going to take a guy in the top
two to three rounds of a draft, I want to
feel better about Travis Etn than I do. Like I
look at Travis Etn as being like him and Ken
(26:16):
Walker basically the spider Man gift Man. They both got
running backs that were taken in the top three rounds
of the NFL draft and air dropped into the backfields.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Like round two is way different than round three, Like
you cannot.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Compare to is it really? Like, I'm way different? It
is so much.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
Being taken fifty second overall, Zach Charbonay is completely different
than going in the third round.
Speaker 5 (26:36):
As Tank bigsby designing close.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Second round is the new first round for running backs,
and the third round is the new second round. Man third,
fourth to.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Third is the same as the fourth round. I would
put take Bigsby in the same conversation as Rosaan Johnson,
like he's he's closer than that than Zach Scharboney.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
If you look at those hit rates over the last
fifteen years, Yes, you're right over the last few years,
I wouldnsider and push back against that and Etn if
he doesn't get the early down work, tell me this ericson,
Are you feeling really good if he doesn't get the
early down in the red zone work? If Tank eats
into that because it's a possibility. Are you feeling good
about the fact that Etn ranked thirty six in yards
(27:13):
per outrun and thirty first in target chair. He didn't
even sniff an eight percent target chair last year.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
I just explained why that happened because all the guys
were healthy. If you if your receivers are all healthy eating.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Injuries here, Travis Etn has to have an injury in
the offense to pay off.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Is that what happened to Austin Eckler. How did he
have so many catches last year?
Speaker 5 (27:29):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Because his receivers got hurt on his team is literally
what happened.
Speaker 5 (27:32):
But this is the Jaguars.
Speaker 4 (27:34):
Why do you think caught somebody passes last year because
everybody got hurt on the team.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
On offense, that entire team sucked. Okay, there's another part
about that.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Let's move to a running back then, I think we
all agree is going too high, and that's Dalvin Cook.
His ADP right now, fifty second overall ECR, thirty fourth
overall ericson.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
That's too high, right.
Speaker 5 (27:53):
Yes, extremely too high.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
Dalvin Cook was horrible last year basically looking at last
rushing EPA percentage of rushes for zero negative yards among
all ball carriers. Now, all signs are kind of pointing
to him not being in the Minnesota. Does he have
a good landing spot Miami's been kind of the spot
that he's been talked about. Okay, that could be decent
for him, But I think he's like a veteran running
back where it's like I think he's probably just gonna
(28:15):
be too expensive for me. Now, whichever one of these
like Dusty Ready veteran running backs gets completely written off
like where he's going in like the eighth, ninth, tenth round,
then that's the guy I'll drop, probably end up drafting.
But I don't think Dalvin Cook is gonna be that guy,
especially when he ends up going on a team where
it's like, oh, like Dalvin Cook, Oh, here we go
fourth round Dalvin Cook.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Like, no, thanks, Dero.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
You're a bit higher on Cook than RICKSONAZ. But are
you high enough to actually draft him or are you
still passing?
Speaker 3 (28:41):
No, I'm passing. We're in perfect lockstep here. I mean,
dalvind Cook is coming off one of the worst statistical
seasons efficiency wise of his entire career, second lowest breakaway
percentage of his entire career, the lowest yards per run
route run of his entire career. No, I'm out on
Dalvin Cook.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
No, thank you.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
I agree to so make it unanimous. That's an easy one.
Let's go to.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Damian Pierce ADP fifty first overall ECR forty first.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Overall, Debro Are you drafting or passing?
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Yep, I'm drafting him. I'm a little bit ahead of
FFPC beastball ADP where he's fifty first. I've got him
at forty second overall RB fifteen. I mean we're talking
about a guy that, yes, Like, if you're talking about
the Texans offense overall, are we enamored in that?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
No?
Speaker 3 (29:26):
But we're talking about the offense system, the guys coming
over from Sancisco, what do they like to do? Run
the damn ball. They're going to run the ball. And
if you're telling me Damian Pierce is going to get
a boatload of volume, oh yeah, dude, sign me up
for a player that was He was ninth in yards
up to contact per attempt, top twenty and basically everything
else you look at. Oh and guess what first in
(29:46):
PFF elusive rating? Uh huh, yeah, I'm investing in Damian Pierce.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Erickson, you're a bit lower, are you passing?
Speaker 5 (29:53):
Uh? Yeah, I'm going to pass on Damian Pierce.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
I don't really feel the need to draft a two
down grinder back on the Houston Texans, who are projected
to be have the second worst record in the NFL
per the Super Bowl odds. So I just don't see
a scenario where I skip out on Pierce as a
round four draft pick, and it burns me because we
don't know what his role in the passing game he's
going to be, we don't know how good this offense
is going to be, And Damian Pierce is volume dependent,
(30:17):
Like if he doesn't get the volume, then he's not
going to be good, So I just don't think that
that's not appealing for me.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
In the fourth round, I think the defense is not
gonna be good. I think the offense is maybe getting
a little underrated. I know there's always questions about like
Ohio State quarterbacks, and I know they don't have like
the best weapons, but they also don't have the worst weapons.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
There's some definite the running back room.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
I think the offense actually could be better this year
than people, even though I still don't expect it to
be certainly great or anything like that. I'm a big
Stroud fan, of course, which I know debro is as well,
but I think there's some hope for that offense actually
this year, if not for the team overall. Let's go
to another running back, a rookie actually here, Jamier Gibbs.
His ADP thirty second overall ECR forty fifth overall rookie
(31:00):
running backs. It's always fun, especially right when they go
in the first round. You always want to buy into
the hype right away. Obviously, the Lions got rid of
DeAndre Swift, it had signed David Montgomery this year, but
they clearly love Gibbs. You don't draft a guy that
high if you're not all in on him. They said
they would have drafted him at six if they had
stayed there. I don't know if I believe that, but no,
they say it, and they said it with some degree
of conviction.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Ericson where are you at on Gibbs? Are you drafting
or passing?
Speaker 4 (31:24):
I'm gonna be drafting Jamiir Gibbs. I'm gonna be drafting
him in the end of round three. Like, but I
understand where we're have this conversation, and it could be, well,
Gibbs is now a mid round two pick. That could
be something where Okay, I'm probably gonna be out at
that price, but right now, end of round three, beginning
round four, I do like the price there for Jamiir Gibbs,
again receiving upside the draft capital that we talked about. Look,
(31:46):
he's DeAndre Swift, except the Lions actually like him, and
DeAndre Swift was super efficient and a guy that I
was taking in the second round last year. So it's like,
I see the appeal with him, and as long as
his ADP doesn't get out of control, where I'm taking
him over were established studs. I believe I had him
like right on the cusp of RB one. I have
him at the top of my second tier running backs,
(32:06):
So it's like, as long as he doesn't get into
that next tier, I'm really excited to take him in
that round three, round four, But if he gets up
to round two, I'm probably gonna be out at that price.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
I was listening to some another podcast on a different
NARERK and I actually genuinely can't remember who it was
at this point, but they're having conversation about undersized running
backs and how a lot of times it's not actually
about whether or not they can hold up. It's about
whether or not the coaching staff trust them to hold up.
So it's less about injury risk and more about actual usage.
The fact that the Lions took Gibbs and you know,
(32:36):
a little undersized obviously at twelfth.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Overall they're going to use him.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
It would be complete, utter malpractice to not use him
if you're gonna spend that kind of draft capital on him,
So that sort of mitigates that risk. You know, in
my eyes, at least with Gibbs deeper, are you drafting
or passing on him?
Speaker 3 (32:52):
I'm gonna be passing in a lot of aspects. And
this is not because I hate Jamiir Gibbs. I'm just
behind consensus on him. I have him at forty fourth
overall RB seventeen. Like I look at Gibbs as an
RB two And this is not me hating Gibbs, and
I know the Dynasty community things. I hate Gibbs because
oh I like first round wide receivers. Oh gosh, hey
hate wide receivers so much, and I hate running backs
(33:13):
like this is ridiculous. Like I like Gibbs, but my
problem with Gibbs is David Montgomery is still going to
be there. David Montgomery is still going to have a
role in this offense, like DeAndre Swift had a red
zone role, had a pass game role. I didn't stop
Jamal Williams from gobbling up all kinds of volume inside
the ten, inside the five, and it is going to
(33:34):
take a hit to Jamiir gives touchdown upside. So it's
not like I don't see Gibbs as operating as a
workhorse or a bell count in this offense. I just
don't think that David Montgomery is going away. They value
his role in this offense, and yes, that could vault
him a little bit higher than what we saw for
DeAndre Swift last year, but to vault him up to
(33:56):
RB one type of status or right at the cusp
of it, I'm just a little bit over on.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
That last running back we're going to talk about here,
Joe Mixon, a guy that I am definitely passing on.
Where he's going ECR sixty first overall, FFPC basketball ADP
is fifty eighth overall.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
I'm not taking him there, Debro, Are you hell no?
Speaker 3 (34:15):
I want to know Joe Mixon pass all freaking day.
I've got Joe Mixon at sixty third overall. I want
to make sure throughout the offseason that I am behind
consensus with Joe Mixon because he's terrible. Out of forty
five running backs with at least one hundred rushing attempts
last year, this is where mister Joe Mixon finished thirty
ninth and yards out of contact for attempt thirty six
(34:37):
and breakaway raid forty second in PFF elusive rating. Uh huh.
I don't want the second coming of Ezekiel Elliott. Uh
huh no, thank you, bye bye.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
I'm out Ericson. Debro is pretty emphatic about that. And
yet you actually have Mixing ranked even lower than he does.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
Well, actually move Joe Xing up a little bit. I
actually have him sixty first overall. So I'm pretty in
line with ADP and with ECR on Joe mix In overall.
And it's because, look, I was under the impression he
wasn't like be gonna be on the Bengals, but all
indications are now that he is going to be on
the Bengals, And.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
Like, what's different about his situation?
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Yeah, he's not that great of an efficient running back,
but he's on one of the best offices in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
Top five offense. He was still a.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
Top ten running back last year despite sucking, like Deebro said,
But it doesn't matter because he's gonna score a touchdowns.
Like who's gonna who in this backfield is gonna take
away touches? They don't have Smashape here in anymore. They
have Chase Brown, who the drafted in the fifth round.
They have Chris Evans, so they never want to give
the ball to So for me, it's like they can
get out of his contract at the end of this year.
Speaker 5 (35:34):
They want to get rid of him.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
So it's like, why are they not just running him
into the ground and that's gonna involve a lot of touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (35:39):
So at this price, I like it.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Like I'm trying to find who is this year's Josh Jacobs,
where it's a guy that everybody's out on, quote unquote
that's like an older running back. It's like, oh, like
I'm sick of this guy, but the price is just
so low that it's like, Okay, well I'll just take
Joe Mixon, like that was the case with Josh Jacobs,
like well, he's just too cheap. And right now, Joe
Mixon to me is at least that guy where if
he stays this cheap, I will take him, but if
(36:02):
he starts to get steamed up, I'll be hands off.
Speaker 5 (36:04):
For the reasons that Debro laid.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Out, I don't think it'll be Jacobs. I think if
you're the best case scenario you're looking at for mixing
this year, or he's last year's Leonard Fournette, but that's good,
grotesquely terrible. But he's gonna move off a weighted opportunity
if he keeps it like I get it. I just
for me, I can't press the button on a guy
that like his talent level has diminished to the point
(36:26):
where it's like, could they sign a Kareem Hunt? Hell,
could they give the ball to Chase Brown like they
did with p Ryan because Joe Mixon sucks.
Speaker 1 (36:34):
Yeah, I I rostered Josh Jacobs in zero Leagues last year,
So that kind of scares me to draw that comparison.
Speaker 4 (36:41):
Like you see they see the parallels though, right, Yeah,
Like I follow what you're saying. That's what I'm saying,
But it's like a it's a totally market driven maneuver
where it's like, whichever veteran running back the market says,
I don't want this guy, that's the guy I want.
So that could be mixing is it cooked? Like I
don't know where their ADP's are going to end up
at the end of the day, when you know, August
rolls around. I think it's just some mean to keep
in mind, Like, Okay, who's the market trolling out on
(37:03):
which better running back that's a proven producer? Take that
guy at discount.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I will just point out because you say that, well,
the fact that he's staying on the Bengals likely is
why you would be a little bit higher on him.
I mean, he was on the Bengals last year, and
if you take away the one game where he finished
with fifty three Fantasy points in half scoring a half
point PPR scoring, he did not go above twenty Fantasy
points in any other game. So not he was in
(37:29):
the teams a lot. It's not like he was absolutely atrocious.
He was still scoring to a degree, but he wasn't this.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Sign you don't be that guy that takes away guys
that doing good games.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
Don't be that guy.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
I know.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
I'm just pointing out it's I mean, a fifty.
Speaker 3 (37:41):
When you only have one good game, it's not that
hard to do. I'll just say that when you only
had one good game.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
It's not that he had other good games.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
He didn't have any great games outside of the one
that everybody will remember.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
That's my only point.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
But we have a couple of quarterbacks he will wrap
up with. It will start with Deshaun Watson. ADP currently
is seventy fourth overall. ECR is actually even lower, ninety
second overall, and deepro's even lower than that. So I
assume you're passing pass pass pass pass.
Speaker 5 (38:11):
Uh huh now uh.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
Deshaun Watson was terrible last year and could he rebound. Sure.
The other side of that coin that nobody wants to
look at is could he still be terrible this year? Yeah,
he absolutely could be. I mean his numbers were so
bad they were like bottom of the league bad. Last
year he was. His big time throw rate was the
(38:34):
fourth worst out of all quarterbacks last year with at
least one hundred and fifty dropbacks. The only three that
were worse than him Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and yes,
Daniel Jones. But Daniel Jones didn't throw the ball down
the field at all. Deshaun Watson was terrible, man tenth
highest turnover worthy play rate. I just I have a
hard time, especially like where he's going on a lot
(38:56):
of drafts, just pressing the button considering other quarterbacks that
are going around him, Like I'm out of de Shawn Watson.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
Yeah, we don't need to believer the point I have
him in a super flex dynasye league. I have no
idea what to do, because you're right, you could write
the narrative of he was super rusty last year, it
had been for ever since he played.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
He'll bounce back with a good offense around him.
Speaker 1 (39:15):
But you could also very easy to write the narrative
that he's maybe not cooked, but just never getting back
to what we saw previously, and I really don't know
what to do with him.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Ericson, you're a bit higher. Are you drafting him at
his current ADP?
Speaker 4 (39:25):
Yeah, I'm drafting him above ADP. I have him, have
him fifty third overall because I think he's gonna bounce back,
Like you just look, this is something deebro had mentioned
in one of our forums for the Scouting Academy. You
don't forget to be an elite athlete. And I don't
think Deshaun Watson forgot how to be an elite quarterback.
Speaker 5 (39:40):
Good call, Like, I look, the.
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Context of his situation was like nothing we have ever
seen at the quarterback position. Like he took like multiple
seasons off, he missed so much time, and they just
dropped him in Cleveland where the wind is blistering, Like
he hasn't have any chemistry with his receivers, Like it's
a whole different offense.
Speaker 5 (39:57):
Like of course he.
Speaker 4 (39:58):
Was horrible like that surprise, literally nobody that he was
horrible last year. But I say last year's tape, burn it,
burn it. I really don't think it matters. I don't
think it holds any weight, and I think that Deshaun
Watson is more likely to be a top five Fantasy
quarterback this year to finish outside the top twenty.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Look at Ericson dunking on Debro all episode long and
then quoting him to himself at the end, well, we're
all friends.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
That was That was. I gotta tip the cap for that.
That was. That was. Look, that was very nice, sir.
Last that was that was very nice.
Speaker 1 (40:27):
Last player we're going to talk about is Anthony Richardson,
another rookie, obviously a really exciting guy for fantasy, given
the style of play at quarterback, the type of just
freak athlete that could really break the position in scoring
his FFPC bestball ADP one hundred and fourth overall ECR
one hundred and seventy ninths, that's definitely gonna come up.
I think that's probably being dragged down by just preu
(40:50):
you know, finding out there.
Speaker 5 (40:51):
Just to sleep Ryan. People are asleep at the wheel.
Anthony Richardson he cared THO, No doesn't matter now, no,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
Like especially like now with chansnyke in in in the
Hascott Weapons, they're like that that's certainly gonna go up.
I would expect the ADP to go up as well.
You guys are both higher, so I assume you're both
drafting there. So I'll sort of twist the question to
where are you drafting him? Specifically? Ericson's starting with you.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
I have him eighty seventh overall, have him like right
outside the QB one territory. But I know, I look
at my rankings some times I'm like, should I just
like put him out a QB ten because it's it's
what we all know, Like it's the rushing upside.
Speaker 5 (41:27):
Does it? Does it always work out? Not necessarily?
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Like didn't work out with Trey Lance, didn't work out
with Malik Willis, But like this is the right process,
Like just chase these mobile quarterbacks that rush and none
of them had none of those other quarterbacks necessarily. I
think coming in as good as Anthony Richardson is honestly
and situationally situationally wise, Like his situation is so much
better than every other rookie quarterback, Like and you just
(41:51):
mentioned it too, Shane stike In, We've already seen this
like play out, Like, just draft him, it's gonna.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
Work the well and the only guy who did come
in with a better situation was Lance just because San
Francisco is so incredible to you know, it's such an
easy system to play quarterback in. But there's obviously injuries there,
and he had even less experience than Anthony Anthony Richardson
did in college, and quite frankly, wasn't as good like Richardson.
People look at him as like, oh, he's a freak
athlete who runs really well. He's probably really behind in
(42:17):
the passing game. Sure, his passing is behind his rushing ability,
but he is much further along than a guy like
Malik Willis, like you mentioned, they're not even the same stratosphere. Indeed,
Rye know you're also high on Richardson.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
QB ten, Baby, I got him at QB ten. I'm
drafting him in the sixth round. That's the same range
where I took Jalen Hurts of yesteryear. And I look
at it as the same damn bet if Richardson starts
all the games, and I'm sorry, Minshew, lovers, get the
hell out of my mentions. He's gonna start. It took
him top five, He's gonna play.
Speaker 2 (42:50):
They're saying the right quarterback.
Speaker 1 (42:53):
They're saying the right things about about the fact that
like he needs to learn by playing, and so it
doesn't make sense to learn behind you.
Speaker 3 (43:02):
He's like, the only way you learn is but taking snaps.
Richardson is playing. If he plays, he's a top twelve quarterback.
Lock it in.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
Yeah, I fully agree. And people talk about to like, oh,
it's a high ceiling low floor. I don't know if
the floor is that low. As long as you played him,
the rushing is what gives him a high floor and
also a high ceiling.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
If they say his floor is low, it's bad process
his hot If you want to accurately describe it, Richardson,
he's a high floor, low ceiling guy. If you're shading him,
if you're like me, you think he has top five
upside if everything freaking hits and his floor is QB
one top twelve.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Yep, I fully agree on the ceiling.
Speaker 5 (43:47):
Where is if we don't know?
Speaker 1 (43:48):
See, this is why you guys got to watch on
YouTube so you can see the hand gestures from de
Ro to really get the full scope of his fantasy analysis.
That's gonna wrap things up for us. Thank you everybody
for tuning in. Please be sure to check out the
FFPC Championship contest with Fantasy Pros and also again follow
us on YouTube. You know, check out all of our
cool dynasty draft kit. Everything we've got in this sight
(44:09):
is awesome. This time of year, it's we're getting back
into It's fantasy season, best ball, dynasty rookie drafts. Really
exciting time of year as we get closer here to
to the stretches the summer. So for Deebro and Erickson,
I'll wrap things up. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thank you guys
for tuning in and we'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 3 (45:00):
M hm m m m m mmm.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Do you little dance?
Speaker 3 (45:08):
I don't dance like that?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Can't you just hear the music?
Speaker 4 (45:10):
Do?
Speaker 2 (45:10):
Do?
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Do do?
Speaker 2 (45:12):
Don't turn bound out? No no, no, don't
Hello, everybody, Welcome into another episode of the Fantasy Pro's
Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as I am many weeks,
but not every week in the off season, of course,
by Derek Brown and Andrew Ericson, both of Fantasy pros
fame debro Ericson. I have been extremely sick this week.
I will spare the gory details for our listeners. I
have already shared them with you. Sorry about that, you know,
(00:22):
getting you off on the right foot here on this show.
But thank you guys for sort of bearing with me
this week as we've prepped for the show.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
But I had to be healthy.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I had to get ready because I really wanted to
broadcast with you guys today.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
How are you guys doing.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
I'm glad you're on the men there, worm. I guess
my first question for you is was it the fire
or the ten pounds did you lose? It's always a
nice crash diet when you get the gi bug and
you're like, well, that's one way to go.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
I lost six pounds in about thirty six hours. Every
coach I was happy with that number, Eric, Eric said,
how you doing.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I'm doing great. I'm enjoying this warm weather that we're
having here in New England. I love the warm weather,
so doing great.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I've got a rare, cold, rainy day out here in Denver,
so we got the reverse weather of what I would
normally expect. It's been raining for like two straight days,
which is two days more than you usually get a
rain in a month out here.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
So it's been kind of gross, but we are happy.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
We are ready to be recording here today talking a
little draft or pass. The premise of the show today
is essentially, you guys are on the clock at ADP
for these players.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
We're gonna run through.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
There's twelve players we're gonna talk about, now, are you
gonna draft or pass on?
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Them?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
At ADP.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
We will jump right in because we want to get
through all these players pretty quickly. Today we will start
with the wide receivers and we will start with one
of the most surprising rankings of all. I'll let Ericson
kind of get into it himself without spoiling it. He
is very high on this player, and that's Garrett Wilson ECR.
Right now, and you know, recording this in the second
week of May, so these are obviously subject to changes.
We get into July and August and September, but as
(01:51):
of right now, ecr on Garrett Wilson is twenty third
overall the FFPC contest Best ball ADP is eight overall.
That ericson you're even higher? Are you drafting or passing?
And I'm assuming the answer is drafting even how high
you are on him.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
Yes, I'm definitely going to be trying to draft as
much Garrett Wilson as I can. I have him ninth overall.
I think that you could take him in the first round.
I don't think that that's outlandish, especially with the thirst
for wide receivers. I'm looking at him compared to some
of these other top two receivers. What's given about Grett
Wilson versus his second year justin Jefferson. I mean, what
else did he have to do as a rookie to
(02:27):
show us that, hey, this guy can take another major
step forward with Aaron Rodgers now his quarterback, last year
without Zach Wilson as his quarterback, Garrett Wilson average seventeen
Fantasy points, six catches, eleven targets, and eighty two receiving
yards per game. Top ten Fantasy wide receiver numbers with
scrubs at quarterback and now he has a Hall of
Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I don't think it's super complicated.
(02:48):
I want to be on Garrett Wilson and you don't
even have to draft a ninth overall. He's gonna be
ready in the second round and you can just pick him.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Yeah, the case is pretty easy to make, especially after
that Aaron Rodgers trade and Debro. I know you're not
quite feeling the same love for Wilson as Ericson is.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I mean, Erickson's got a giant gallon of the Aaron
Rodgers cave sauce. Man, he's drinking enough. He's got them
jumbo straw like I like Garrett Wilson, Like right now,
I've got him at twenty ninth overall wide receiver fifteen.
I'm not as stout on Ericson. I'll pass in some
and a lot of different aspects on Garrett Wilson. And
(03:24):
this is not a shade on the talent of the player.
This comes down to what we've seen at Aaron Rodgers
and Nathaniel Hackett and oh, by the way, Todd Downing's fumbling,
moronic self is also in New York. These are the
people that you know are caretaking this jet's passing offense.
And what have we seen when Rogers and Hackett have
(03:45):
been together before, It's been a slow, slow offense. Yes,
they pass a good bit, but my worry is what
is the ceiling of targets to put Garrett Wilson this high?
I mean, even if you're looking at okay, he Garners
targets the same realm he was at last year when
he was a full time player, twenty six percent target chair,
but he was only thirty first in targets per route run.
(04:06):
So if we're not getting the play volume. I like
Wilson as like a mid wide receiver too. I just
have a lot of problems trying to get him into
that wide receiver one range.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
De Bro, can you remind me not that I'm saying
you're letting this sort of swear your ranking. I know
Ericson was really high on Garrett Wilson as a rookie.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
He was his number one receiver in that class. Where
was he in the class for you? I can't remember.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
He was top top two, top three. Drake Lindon was
my number one. I think I had Watson was my two.
Wilson was either my three or my four.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Trying to remember back yep, yeah, I just I remember.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
You know, Ericson has been very high Garret Wilson for
quite a while, so it kind of is very easy
to write that narrative too, now that Aaron Rodgers is
there and I side with him. Yeah, very very much
on brand. Guys, how would you feel about making one
of our fans a literal millionaire? Because I want to
do just that by taking a moment to talk about
our FFPC Fantasy Pros Championship. Of course, we just talked
(05:03):
about the best ball adp for Garrett Wilson eighteenth. Overall,
we'll be giving those numbers throughout the show, but I
want you guys to join ffpc's Fantasy Pros Championship for
a chance to win six million dollars in total prizes,
including a one million dollars grand prize. Free Fantasy Pros
and Betting Pro subscriptions are up for grabs as well.
Sign up now at Fantasypros dot com Slash Championship and
(05:23):
use promo code Fantasy Pros to save twenty five dollars
on your entry. Enter before June first, which is just
a few weeks away. And draft before June fifteenth, which
is a little over a month away, to score an
extra thirty five dollars early bird credit. In each twelve
team league, you'll navigate a twelve week regular season with
weekly waivers and lineup decisions, but no trades. The top
(05:44):
two seeds and each league's playoff champ will advance to
the championship round and compete for the one million dollar
prize during weeks fifteen to seventeen. Don't miss out. Visit
fantasypros dot com Slash Championship and use promo code Fantasy
Pros for twenty five dollars off your entry.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Oh and happy drafting.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Let's move on to our next wide receiver here, Deebo
Samuel Erickson.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Are you drafting or passing him? At thirty ninth overall
in ECR.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
I would be probably drafting Deebo Samuel in this range.
I'm right kind of in range here with my ranking
of him at thirty ninth overall as well, So I
could be going either way with Deebo if I need
a wide receiver when I'm drafting, I think it's fine. Look,
he's someone that I'm not really overly bullishan or bear Sean.
I think that he's priced appropriately where he is. I
don't want to call on the show and say, oh
I love Deebo, I hate Deebo. I'm pretty lukewarm on
(06:33):
Deebo Samuel, and I see the appeal of him taking
him in the third or fourth round where if rock
Perty is the starter. Again, look when rock Perty was
under center and Deebo was healthy, it was Deebo Samuel
that was first in target chair. He was the most
efficient for me guards per route run perspective, fourteen fantasy
points per game. His average out of the target was horrible,
but that's because he's a yack monster. So if rock
(06:55):
Purty is coming back where he's not pushing the ball
down field because he has this lingering elbow injury where
it's like he's not really pushing the ball downfield, well
that probably means gonna be a lot of underneath targets
to Deebo Samuel. And we always see with this forty
nine ers offense where if one guy goes down, every
other guy just blows up in terms of production. So
it's hard to see a scenario where Kittle, McCaffrey, Ayuk
(07:17):
and Deebo all hit ADP. Whoever stays healthy usually does
return on their investment.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
It tells you that I spend too much time talking
to Deebro because I always want to call him Debro
Samuel on accident uh FFPC bestball ADP on Samuel.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Is it lower than ECR.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
It's forty eighth overall, But Deebra, I think you're still
probably passing on him there right.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
Oh, I'm burying Deebo Samuel, pass pass pass past. I
don't want I don't want anything to do with it.
I know Ericson doesn't want to come in here and
say that he doesn't want anything to do with Deebo Samuel.
I want nothing to do with Deebo Samuel, like he
is being drafted in a lot of different aspects as
a wide receiver two and I don't understand that at all.
Like I get Erickson's points about like okay, he had
(07:59):
the same tour share because I went back and looked
at the splits without CMC. With CMC, similar target share
hovering around twenty four percent targets per route run was
the same. My problem with Debo and not even equating
like rock Party in the arm issues. But again another
concern you add in also the concern Ericson was talking
about the injury history. Debo's got one of those. But
(08:22):
my biggest problem with Debo is where's the high leverage usage? Like,
where are the money targets that we want? He's not
getting the looks deep downfield. The breakout season, he was
averaging almost a deep target per game. That dropped to
a half last last year. His aid DOT went to nothing,
like Ericson was talking about, from eight point one to
(08:42):
four point two. And in the eight games we saw
a full time Christian McCaffrey, he got four red zone targets.
So it's like, if he's not going to get these
rushing attempts, if he's not getting deep targets, if he's
not getting red zone looks, where the hell are the
fantasy points coming from? Like he's an empty p PR
guy in a run first offense with a quarterback with
(09:04):
a hurd arm or trying to come back from it
with a pop gum arm to begin with. Ah, Like
I'm not seeing the appeal here, guys. I feel like
we're still living off of Deebo Samuel of twenty twenty
one instead of what Deebo Samuel was last year.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, I don't know if I just miss you saying
you have him at seventy fifth overall, which is I
believe the lowest you have of any running back or
receiver that we have slated to talk about. We have
receiver thirty six, very just barely a wide receiver three
for you?
Speaker 5 (09:36):
Wait, where do you have a UK ranked?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
I've got you. Where are you at? Brandon? I you
wide receiver twenty five?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
So why are you so much higher on a YU
than Debo? Like, do you think I use a better
receiver than Debo? Or do you think Debo's gonna get hurt?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
I think I think there's a lot of different things.
Brandon Ayyuke actually gets targets past three yards down the field,
He gets deep targets, And yeah, I think Brandon and
Ayuk is a better wider receiver hands down. Like if
you put Brandon Ayuk on any other team, I think
we'd be talking about Brandon Ayuk as like a possible
alpha and like he would be top fifteen, top twelve
type of wide receiver talent.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
So then why didn't I you have target Debo when
Purtty was under center last year?
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Then?
Speaker 3 (10:14):
Because party doesn't throw the ball deep, but he's you
just said that that's good for Ayuk as he's used downfield,
but you just said Perry doesn't throw the ball downfield.
Speaker 5 (10:22):
So I don't know. I mean, I think that your
gap I mean.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Between Samuel and Ayuk honestly, I mean, I'll go with
the guy that I think is more talented and is
not gonna get five targets for a grand total of
negative seven air air yards a game. But then Debo
like creates yards on his own, Like he's one of
the best yards after the catch receivers and better after
the catch than Ayuki is. So I don't think you're
giving enough credit to Samuel as a talent. Like the
(10:47):
dude's still super talented.
Speaker 5 (10:48):
I like him.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
I like you think you are thirty five receivers better
than Deebo Samuel he was.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
A wide receiver three last year ericson He's wide receiver
twenty eight and fantasy points per game?
Speaker 5 (10:58):
What what was I spelling that? What was I higher
than that? Not by thirteen or fifteen spots?
Speaker 1 (11:07):
If if the forty nine ers, I just very quickly
if the forty nine ers end up like because of
the injury lingers or because Trey Lance gets back and
healthy and they're like, for whatever, for whatever reason, brock
Purty isn't under center at some point during the season
in San Francisco, Are you sort of changing your tune
on that debro and maybe liking Deebo a bit higher
at that point?
Speaker 5 (11:27):
No?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I mean, I just I hate Deebo's role in this offense. Like,
if he's not getting the rushing attempts, where are the
opportunities for him to really score fantasy points? Because his
role even if you want to equate a lot of
volume to it, which in a run first offense, Eh,
I don't know how we're getting there. But even in
volume aspects where the touchdowns, Oh is he going to
(11:49):
run those in?
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (11:50):
Wait, those are going to go to see him seeing
Elijah Mitchell, He's not going to get those. Or maybe
they have like different trick packages for Trey Lance. Who
the hell knows, man, it's Kyle Shanahan. The juice is
gonna and snake him at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Yeah, let's do it to our next receiver.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Keenan Allen ECR forty third overall FFPC, Best ball ADP
fifty first overall, Deebra, I'll start with you. Here, are
you drafting or passing at fifty first overall?
Speaker 3 (12:16):
I am locking Keenan Allen in I love him so
much this year, And I understand people want to play
recency bias with the injuries and things like that. Prior
to last year, Keenan Allen was basically a lock to
start at least thirteen to fifteen games. Over you're looking
at like four to five seasons before last year, and
oh what did he do when he was healthy? Like,
(12:38):
recency bias is really getting to people. And it's not
even the good kind of recency bias, because the last
time we saw a Keenan Allen he was amazing. So yes,
I have him as wide receiver eleven right now, nineteenth overall.
Do you have to draft him in the second round. No,
But even if you're taking him at the top of
the third, you're going to be ahead of consensus. Like
(12:59):
FFBC had him as fifty first overall, our ECR has
him as forty third. Did Keenan Allen just retire? I
don't understand this because last year when he was on
the field, he was wide receiver three in Fantasy points
per game, the market which he was producing over the
full season would have put him behind like only justin
(13:19):
Jefferson and AJ Brown. He was top ten in PFF
receiving grade, top twenty one yards per up run targets
here basically everything you look at. And now Kevin Moore
is coming to town. We're going to have a more
fast paced offense, more passing volume. What do we not
like here? And if you're drafting Mike Williams, head of
Keenan Allen, just burn your money. Just go ahead, drop
(13:43):
it in a trash can and light it on fire,
because then I really have no You have no chance
if you're doing that.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Eric sent are you drafting or passing on Keenan Allen.
Speaker 5 (13:52):
I'm drafting him where he's going.
Speaker 4 (13:54):
I'm not going to draft him at wide receiver eleven,
but I'm fine where his ADP is.
Speaker 5 (13:58):
I have in forty ninth. Overall, his best ball.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
ADP is fifty first, the ECR ranking is forty third,
So yeah, I think that he's a good value where
he is going. Again, you mentioned some of the concerns
going back from last year where he's thirty one years old,
and I guess my band concern is he's a volume
dependent receiver. Like I know that he was more efficient
last year, but that's because he played less games. Like
we have to like stop getting caught in the efficiency
trap where it's like, oh, this guy was so efficient.
(14:21):
He's like, yeah, because the sample size is smaller, So
like that's why he's more efficient, versus when you actually
extrapolated over a full season, it's not going to be
as efficient. So, yes, he was super productive in the
games that he played last year, but I guarantee if
he'd played a whole season, it was not going to
be reflected in that specific category. You also look at
look Micha Williams is back. They added a guy in
the first round, Quentin Johnson, Like that matters, Like he's
(14:44):
gonna play and he's gonna get targets in this off
in some way, shape or form. So anything that's going
away from Keenan Allen's total target volume I think is
a downfall with his fantasy upside. So I view him
more as in the wide receiver two range. But I
think he's really safe. I think the officer really secure floor.
And I do like the addition of Kellen Moore as
the offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Also, they did bring back Eckler, which was a question
mark at one point in the offseason, and that's a
running back is gonna catch a lot of passes too,
So there are a lot of mouths to feed in
this offense. Even if Keenan Allen is sort of the
alpha in the offense, Let's move to Drake London, a
guy that Debro has already professed his love for a
little bit on the show ALREADYPC vestball adp is fifty
eighth overall, ECR fifty first overall, Deebra I'll start with
(15:27):
you again, drafting or passing.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
I'm drafting him. I mean, I'm firmly ahead of consensus.
And I know maybe I'm just drinking the sauce, and
I know all the Arthur Smith jokes are out there.
I haven't a thirtieth overall wide receiver sixteen. A lot
of this goes to, yes, I'm drafting a lot of
wide receivers early. You're telling me PPR formats and especially FFPC.
I want guys that are going to earn a lot
of targets. I mean, last year, even if we want
(15:51):
to talk about the Arthur Smith offense, Drake Lonnon in
his rookie season was twenty second twenty second in raw
target volume. It's not like he got eighty targets last year.
He was fifth in target share and second in targets
per rout run like. Basically, he was operating as an alpha.
And I'm not a huge fan of Desmond Ridder, but
over the last part of the season weeks thirteen through eighteen,
(16:13):
and I get Bill Erickson's probably gonna bring up the
Kyle Pitts was out. I understand that those are the
only two guys you really have to worry about in
this passing attack. Though he was wide receiver twenty over
that stretch of weeks thirteen through eighteen, and that was
without any touchdowns zero zero touchdowns if he got in
theian Zel once or twice. We're talking about Drake Lunnon
(16:34):
producing as close to a wide receiver one in that span.
He's got the talent and he earns targets to be
an alpha. Now, I got questions about the passing volume,
but am I going to pass up Drake Lennon as
a wide receiver two? No way.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
I also think that the offense has a chance to
be more efficient now that it's not Mariota for a
full season, Like your mileage made very on Desmond Ridder.
But even if let's se Ridder is bad, they have
Taylor Heinekee there. Now we saw him Washington. He was
very happy to Peppery's best receiver with targets when he
was the guy actually in the game. He was throwing
to Terry mcclurein not that he's you know, particularly great,
but he was giving volume to those top guys. So
(17:11):
I think you could see that play out with London theoretically.
Eric said, I know you're lower on London than deebro Is.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
I mean, I'm just terrified of this passing game, Like
I don't believe in Desmon Ridder. Like I went back
and rewatched his last game Week eighteen, and he basically
did nothing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting defense. It
was literally only till the Buccaneers rested their starters because
I didn't have anything to play for. And then you
started seeing Ridder throw touchdowns to wide open players because
(17:37):
defenders fell down. Like I got major, like if Ryan
Tannehill was a quarterback here, I feel way better about
Drake London. But like I can't just ignore the fact that, yeah,
he's gonna have high target share in the offense that
passes the least amount in the NFL, Like his target
is his target share going to be higher or lower
than it was last year? It's like it was really
really high last year and now Kyle Pitt's coming back
into the fold. Look weeks one through eleven with Ky,
(18:00):
he had two top twenty four finishes. He had a
twenty seven percent target chair and finish as a wide
receiver two twice, and all those games he was one
point sixty six yards per route run thirty eighth. Like,
I get the talent argument for Drake London, but at
the end of the day, it's like, look, man, if
I pass on it a talented receiver. Look, there's a
lot of talented wide receivers now, especially young ones. I'd
(18:21):
rather take my shots than someone that's going to more
pass heavy offense Versus a guy like Drake Lundon, where
it's like, yeah's sup efficient, but it's like, hey, you
only got five six targets a game. It's like, is
that gonna beat me if I don't take him as
a wide receiver?
Speaker 5 (18:32):
Two.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
That's why I have him ranked where I have him
at the high end of the wide receiver two territory,
like wide receiver twenty four to twenty five range. If
I get him there, I feel better about it. But
I can't take him in the mid wide receiver two range.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Yeah, to play Devil's advocate against my own argument for London,
you also can't ignore the fact that they added Jean
who A can be a threat in the passing game,
and b is somebody that Arthur Smith is going to
want to give like three hundred and fifty touches this year,
So we might actually even see fewer passes this season
of this offense than we did last season. Let's move
to our last receiver here. Chris Godwin ADP and FFPC
(19:07):
is seventy fifth overall. ECR is highering that fifty fourth
overall ericson what say you draft your pass.
Speaker 4 (19:14):
I'm drafting Chris Godwin, and I guess I kind of
view Chris Godwin as my version of debros keenan Allen,
where he's going to getting written off because all the
quarterback play is going to be really bad. He was
banged up last year. He was wide receiver three in
terms of fantasy points when he was healthy from weeks
four for the rest of the season. Now, the passing
volume isn't going to be the same without Tom Brady
in this offense, but he's coming. He's another year removed
(19:36):
from his ACL injury, which we were all concerned about
just drafting him in general.
Speaker 5 (19:40):
Last year.
Speaker 4 (19:40):
It's like, how healthy is this guy going to be?
And he got reinjured Week one. So adding that additional
layer of context to the conversation for Chris Godwin, Look,
I faded Metcalf, I faded Lockett all last year because
of the quarterbacks geno, like, oh, I can't do it,
and those guys end up being great values, especially Tyler Lockett.
So that's how I kind of view Chris Goblin's like,
you know what, Baker Mayfield, He's not great.
Speaker 5 (20:02):
No, he was bad last year.
Speaker 4 (20:03):
He was better on the rams, which I think matters
because the new offensive coordinator for the Tampay Buccaneers, Dave Canal's,
is coming from the same offensive system that Sean McVay runs,
that Shane Waldern runs. Baker Mayfield's gonna be familiar with
this system, and Chris Godwin is gonna get peppered with
targets from the slot from a team that's always going
to be losing games. So I like Chris Godwin. I
think that he's a screaming value. Seventy fifth overall for
(20:25):
Chris Godwin, who's been a top fantasy wide receiver for
multiple seasons another year removed from injury.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, I think the value is way too good.
Speaker 4 (20:33):
To pass up on Chris Godwin in my opinion. So
that's why I have him forty second overall as a
top twenty receiver.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Dee, bro, what do you think?
Speaker 3 (20:39):
I want nothing to do with Chris Godwin, Man, I
want nothing to do with wide receivers tied to freaking
Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield. I think, Ericson, I love you, man,
but I think you're giving Baker a pass here. I
mean even with the Rams, Like, yeah, he had the
great game where like they came back and won the game.
His yards per attempt in his other starts in that
start six point six? Was he throwing to's he thrown to?
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Playing?
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Is Cooper Cup playing in those games? No?
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Did you watch the Tampa Bay passing offense last year?
How many weeks do we say, oh, this offense looks
broken Like.
Speaker 5 (21:12):
Chriscott putting up numbers. What do you mean he just
did score a touchdowns and there's like a free and
pace and passive rate.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Where do you think they'll be at this year? Are
they gonna even sniff close to that? Ericson?
Speaker 4 (21:22):
I mean, I think they probably around the league average.
I think that's a I mean, I wouldn't say you
can't say they're gonna pass as often as they do
with Brady, of course, because they can't. They're not physically possible.
But it's not you can't just say, oh, well, they're
gonna be thirty first and pass attempts. That doesn't make
a lot of sense either, based on the fact that
they're not a good team. So I would say league
average is probably appropriate. And Baker Mayfield can throw the football.
It's not like he's like enable to produce passers, and
(21:45):
he's been good before at certain spots his career. I
don't think he's that great, But it's it's the price
for Godwin, Like, so then what's the price for Godwin
where you would actually draft? Because you say you haven't
ranked seventy third, his best ball ADP is seventy fifth,
So according to your rankings, you would draft him if
he's available at seventy five overall correct.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Yeah, I'll take some shots on him. But I mean
for the large part of it, Like I think that
he's gonna rise a little bit closer to we get
to Week one and stuff. I mean, I've got.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
People hate Baker Mayfield. I mean, you just talked about it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
I can video ericson takes one training camp video, Kyle
Trask going on there and.
Speaker 4 (22:19):
Throwing tent camp videos only worked for these days three
rookies shosh downs? Is ADP skyrocketing for a slot receiver
that's gotta get three targets a game.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
I feel I feel like I'm having the same conversation
that we did with Debo. It's because Chris Godwin's usage
last year was terrible. I mean, the similar things we
talked about with Deebo, Like he was ninety sixth, like
barely a top one hundred receiver in deep targets.
Speaker 5 (22:46):
How many deep targets is canon?
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Allen get one doesn't have to worry about deep targets
whenever they're gonna possibly lead the league in passing attempts?
Can we say that for Tampa Bay?
Speaker 4 (22:57):
I mean they're gonna be in the They're gonna be
in the middle, well, the middle range.
Speaker 5 (23:02):
Here, let's competition, LA's competition in Tampa.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
All right, I got a wrangle on this day.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
We'll get to the running backs and quarterbacks next, But
first I want to thank everybody who's watching today's show
on YouTube. For those only listening on the audio, we
thank you too, of course, but you're missing out on
half the fun. So check us out at YouTube dot
com slash Fantasy Pros and be sure to subscribe if
you like our content because it really does help us out. Plus,
you can click the bell until it goes ding to
get notified of all our latest podcasts, short videos, and
(23:31):
live streams. Guys, let's move to the running backs here.
We'll start with Travis Etn ECR nineteenth overall FFPCADP is
twenty sixth overall.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Ericson where are you at on Travis Etn? Drafting or passing?
Speaker 4 (23:44):
So I'm gonna be drafting Travis Etn most of the time.
I have him twenty fifth overall. Right, where his best
ball ADP is in the FFPC last year when he
was healthy Week seven through seventeen after they got rid
of James Robinson RB eight in points per game, fifth
and carries inside the ten yard line. He only scored
four touchdown besides twenty three goal line carries. Touchdown regressions
(24:04):
coming for Travis Etn, which is why I think it's
gonna work out in his favor. And looking at the
Jacksonville Jaguars offense last year, everybody stayed healthy. Everybody Evan
Ingram stay healthy. Marvin Jones stay healthy, Christian Kirk stay healthy.
It's not gonna happen again. Someone's gonna get hurt. And
that's what you're gonna see a boost for Travis Etn
in the passing game as a result.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Quick quickly, Eric saying, are you at all nervous about
Tank Bigsby?
Speaker 5 (24:26):
No, stoot.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
I don't think Tank is that good. I think I
don't think he's that good. Nothing about his profile screamed
out to me. They like, oh man, this guy, oh man,
he's really good.
Speaker 5 (24:35):
He was in the third round.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
I didn't scream at you. That didn't put up a
red flag and say look at this.
Speaker 4 (24:41):
Trent Balkey drafts running backs every single year. Okay, just
another running back ran Davis Price. He was a third
run pick last year.
Speaker 5 (24:47):
What did he do? Literally nothing?
Speaker 3 (24:49):
All right, do you wrote draft your pass I'm passing
on Travis Etn. And the thing about it is, I
don't hate the player, but I put stock in the
fact of one of the numbers that you brought up ericson,
you said is gonna be touchdown regression. I put that
as the fact that Travis Etn was not great in
his red zone role. Part of that could be that
(25:11):
maybe he's just not a good goal line runner. That
thus you get Tank Bigsby in the house. Travis Etn
last year at a sixty five qualifying running backs, he
was fifty seventh in red zone touchdown conversion rate. That
is abysmal. And even if we want to say, like, okay, well,
Travis et In's a good pass catcher, right, where was
(25:32):
the passing volume for him? Like I think Tank Bigsby
is going to have a standalone role in this offense.
I don't think that they just sewed a third round
pick in to sit here and have him sitting on
the depth chart when they already had jamiael Hasty. They
signed to Ernest Johnson, who have both shown to be
capable backups. You don't spend a third round pick on
a guy that you're just gonna park on the bench
as a and keep the seat warm. For Etn, Etn
(25:55):
was not getting targets, so like, if he's not getting
the early down work, if I'm worried about the red
zone work, like I have him at RB twenty one,
but I've dropped into sixty fourth overall because there's running backs.
If I'm going to take a guy in the top
two to three rounds of a draft, I want to
feel better about Travis Etn than I do. Like I
look at Travis Etn as being like him and Ken
(26:16):
Walker basically the spider Man gift Man. They both got
running backs that were taken in the top three rounds
of the NFL draft and air dropped into the backfields.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Like round two is way different than round three, Like
you cannot.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
Compare to is it really? Like, I'm way different? It
is so much.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
Being taken fifty second overall, Zach Charbonay is completely different
than going in the third round.
Speaker 5 (26:36):
As Tank bigsby designing close.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Second round is the new first round for running backs,
and the third round is the new second round. Man third,
fourth to.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Third is the same as the fourth round. I would
put take Bigsby in the same conversation as Rosaan Johnson,
like he's he's closer than that than Zach Scharboney.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
If you look at those hit rates over the last
fifteen years, Yes, you're right over the last few years,
I wouldnsider and push back against that and Etn if
he doesn't get the early down work, tell me this ericson,
Are you feeling really good if he doesn't get the
early down in the red zone work? If Tank eats
into that because it's a possibility. Are you feeling good
about the fact that Etn ranked thirty six in yards
(27:13):
per outrun and thirty first in target chair. He didn't
even sniff an eight percent target chair last year.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
I just explained why that happened because all the guys
were healthy. If you if your receivers are all healthy eating.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Injuries here, Travis Etn has to have an injury in
the offense to pay off.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Is that what happened to Austin Eckler. How did he
have so many catches last year?
Speaker 5 (27:29):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Because his receivers got hurt on his team is literally
what happened.
Speaker 5 (27:32):
But this is the Jaguars.
Speaker 4 (27:34):
Why do you think caught somebody passes last year because
everybody got hurt on the team.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
On offense, that entire team sucked. Okay, there's another part
about that.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Let's move to a running back then, I think we
all agree is going too high, and that's Dalvin Cook.
His ADP right now, fifty second overall ECR, thirty fourth
overall ericson.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
That's too high, right.
Speaker 5 (27:53):
Yes, extremely too high.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
Dalvin Cook was horrible last year basically looking at last
rushing EPA percentage of rushes for zero negative yards among
all ball carriers. Now, all signs are kind of pointing
to him not being in the Minnesota. Does he have
a good landing spot Miami's been kind of the spot
that he's been talked about. Okay, that could be decent
for him, But I think he's like a veteran running
back where it's like I think he's probably just gonna
(28:15):
be too expensive for me. Now, whichever one of these
like Dusty Ready veteran running backs gets completely written off
like where he's going in like the eighth, ninth, tenth round,
then that's the guy I'll drop, probably end up drafting.
But I don't think Dalvin Cook is gonna be that guy,
especially when he ends up going on a team where
it's like, oh, like Dalvin Cook, Oh, here we go
fourth round Dalvin Cook.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Like, no, thanks, Dero.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
You're a bit higher on Cook than RICKSONAZ. But are
you high enough to actually draft him or are you
still passing?
Speaker 3 (28:41):
No, I'm passing. We're in perfect lockstep here. I mean,
dalvind Cook is coming off one of the worst statistical
seasons efficiency wise of his entire career, second lowest breakaway
percentage of his entire career, the lowest yards per run
route run of his entire career. No, I'm out on
Dalvin Cook.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
No, thank you.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
I agree to so make it unanimous. That's an easy one.
Let's go to.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Damian Pierce ADP fifty first overall ECR forty first.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Overall, Debro Are you drafting or passing?
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Yep, I'm drafting him. I'm a little bit ahead of
FFPC beastball ADP where he's fifty first. I've got him
at forty second overall RB fifteen. I mean we're talking
about a guy that, yes, Like, if you're talking about
the Texans offense overall, are we enamored in that?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
No?
Speaker 3 (29:26):
But we're talking about the offense system, the guys coming
over from Sancisco, what do they like to do? Run
the damn ball. They're going to run the ball. And
if you're telling me Damian Pierce is going to get
a boatload of volume, oh yeah, dude, sign me up
for a player that was He was ninth in yards
up to contact per attempt, top twenty and basically everything
else you look at. Oh and guess what first in
(29:46):
PFF elusive rating? Uh huh, yeah, I'm investing in Damian Pierce.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Erickson, you're a bit lower, are you passing?
Speaker 5 (29:53):
Uh? Yeah, I'm going to pass on Damian Pierce.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
I don't really feel the need to draft a two
down grinder back on the Houston Texans, who are projected
to be have the second worst record in the NFL
per the Super Bowl odds. So I just don't see
a scenario where I skip out on Pierce as a
round four draft pick, and it burns me because we
don't know what his role in the passing game he's
going to be, we don't know how good this offense
is going to be, And Damian Pierce is volume dependent,
(30:17):
Like if he doesn't get the volume, then he's not
going to be good, So I just don't think that
that's not appealing for me.
Speaker 1 (30:23):
In the fourth round, I think the defense is not
gonna be good. I think the offense is maybe getting
a little underrated. I know there's always questions about like
Ohio State quarterbacks, and I know they don't have like
the best weapons, but they also don't have the worst weapons.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
There's some definite the running back room.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
I think the offense actually could be better this year
than people, even though I still don't expect it to
be certainly great or anything like that. I'm a big
Stroud fan, of course, which I know debro is as well,
but I think there's some hope for that offense actually
this year, if not for the team overall. Let's go
to another running back, a rookie actually here, Jamier Gibbs.
His ADP thirty second overall ECR forty fifth overall rookie
(31:00):
running backs. It's always fun, especially right when they go
in the first round. You always want to buy into
the hype right away. Obviously, the Lions got rid of
DeAndre Swift, it had signed David Montgomery this year, but
they clearly love Gibbs. You don't draft a guy that
high if you're not all in on him. They said
they would have drafted him at six if they had
stayed there. I don't know if I believe that, but no,
they say it, and they said it with some degree
of conviction.
Speaker 2 (31:21):
Ericson where are you at on Gibbs? Are you drafting
or passing?
Speaker 4 (31:24):
I'm gonna be drafting Jamiir Gibbs. I'm gonna be drafting
him in the end of round three. Like, but I
understand where we're have this conversation, and it could be, well,
Gibbs is now a mid round two pick. That could
be something where Okay, I'm probably gonna be out at
that price, but right now, end of round three, beginning
round four, I do like the price there for Jamiir Gibbs,
again receiving upside the draft capital that we talked about. Look,
(31:46):
he's DeAndre Swift, except the Lions actually like him, and
DeAndre Swift was super efficient and a guy that I
was taking in the second round last year. So it's like,
I see the appeal with him, and as long as
his ADP doesn't get out of control, where I'm taking
him over were established studs. I believe I had him
like right on the cusp of RB one. I have
him at the top of my second tier running backs,
(32:06):
So it's like, as long as he doesn't get into
that next tier, I'm really excited to take him in
that round three, round four, But if he gets up
to round two, I'm probably gonna be out at that price.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
I was listening to some another podcast on a different
NARERK and I actually genuinely can't remember who it was
at this point, but they're having conversation about undersized running
backs and how a lot of times it's not actually
about whether or not they can hold up. It's about
whether or not the coaching staff trust them to hold up.
So it's less about injury risk and more about actual usage.
The fact that the Lions took Gibbs and you know,
(32:36):
a little undersized obviously at twelfth.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Overall they're going to use him.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
It would be complete, utter malpractice to not use him
if you're gonna spend that kind of draft capital on him,
So that sort of mitigates that risk. You know, in
my eyes, at least with Gibbs deeper, are you drafting
or passing on him?
Speaker 3 (32:52):
I'm gonna be passing in a lot of aspects. And
this is not because I hate Jamiir Gibbs. I'm just
behind consensus on him. I have him at forty fourth
overall RB seventeen. Like I look at Gibbs as an
RB two And this is not me hating Gibbs, and
I know the Dynasty community things. I hate Gibbs because
oh I like first round wide receivers. Oh gosh, hey
hate wide receivers so much, and I hate running backs
(33:13):
like this is ridiculous. Like I like Gibbs, but my
problem with Gibbs is David Montgomery is still going to
be there. David Montgomery is still going to have a
role in this offense, like DeAndre Swift had a red
zone role, had a pass game role. I didn't stop
Jamal Williams from gobbling up all kinds of volume inside
the ten, inside the five, and it is going to
(33:34):
take a hit to Jamiir gives touchdown upside. So it's
not like I don't see Gibbs as operating as a
workhorse or a bell count in this offense. I just
don't think that David Montgomery is going away. They value
his role in this offense, and yes, that could vault
him a little bit higher than what we saw for
DeAndre Swift last year, but to vault him up to
(33:56):
RB one type of status or right at the cusp
of it, I'm just a little bit over on.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
That last running back we're going to talk about here,
Joe Mixon, a guy that I am definitely passing on.
Where he's going ECR sixty first overall, FFPC basketball ADP
is fifty eighth overall.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
I'm not taking him there, Debro, Are you hell no?
Speaker 3 (34:15):
I want to know Joe Mixon pass all freaking day.
I've got Joe Mixon at sixty third overall. I want
to make sure throughout the offseason that I am behind
consensus with Joe Mixon because he's terrible. Out of forty
five running backs with at least one hundred rushing attempts
last year, this is where mister Joe Mixon finished thirty
ninth and yards out of contact for attempt thirty six
(34:37):
and breakaway raid forty second in PFF elusive rating. Uh huh.
I don't want the second coming of Ezekiel Elliott. Uh
huh no, thank you, bye bye.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
I'm out Ericson. Debro is pretty emphatic about that. And
yet you actually have Mixing ranked even lower than he does.
Speaker 4 (34:52):
Well, actually move Joe Xing up a little bit. I
actually have him sixty first overall. So I'm pretty in
line with ADP and with ECR on Joe mix In overall.
And it's because, look, I was under the impression he
wasn't like be gonna be on the Bengals, but all
indications are now that he is going to be on
the Bengals, And.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
Like, what's different about his situation?
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Yeah, he's not that great of an efficient running back,
but he's on one of the best offices in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (35:15):
Top five offense. He was still a.
Speaker 4 (35:17):
Top ten running back last year despite sucking, like Deebro said,
But it doesn't matter because he's gonna score a touchdowns.
Like who's gonna who in this backfield is gonna take
away touches? They don't have Smashape here in anymore. They
have Chase Brown, who the drafted in the fifth round.
They have Chris Evans, so they never want to give
the ball to So for me, it's like they can
get out of his contract at the end of this year.
Speaker 5 (35:34):
They want to get rid of him.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
So it's like, why are they not just running him
into the ground and that's gonna involve a lot of touchdowns.
Speaker 5 (35:39):
So at this price, I like it.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Like I'm trying to find who is this year's Josh Jacobs,
where it's a guy that everybody's out on, quote unquote
that's like an older running back. It's like, oh, like
I'm sick of this guy, but the price is just
so low that it's like, Okay, well I'll just take
Joe Mixon, like that was the case with Josh Jacobs,
like well, he's just too cheap. And right now, Joe
Mixon to me is at least that guy where if
he stays this cheap, I will take him, but if
(36:02):
he starts to get steamed up, I'll be hands off.
Speaker 5 (36:04):
For the reasons that Debro laid.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
Out, I don't think it'll be Jacobs. I think if
you're the best case scenario you're looking at for mixing
this year, or he's last year's Leonard Fournette, but that's good,
grotesquely terrible. But he's gonna move off a weighted opportunity
if he keeps it like I get it. I just
for me, I can't press the button on a guy
that like his talent level has diminished to the point
(36:26):
where it's like, could they sign a Kareem Hunt? Hell,
could they give the ball to Chase Brown like they
did with p Ryan because Joe Mixon sucks.
Speaker 1 (36:34):
Yeah, I I rostered Josh Jacobs in zero Leagues last year,
So that kind of scares me to draw that comparison.
Speaker 4 (36:41):
Like you see they see the parallels though, right, Yeah,
Like I follow what you're saying. That's what I'm saying,
But it's like a it's a totally market driven maneuver
where it's like, whichever veteran running back the market says,
I don't want this guy, that's the guy I want.
So that could be mixing is it cooked? Like I
don't know where their ADP's are going to end up
at the end of the day, when you know, August
rolls around. I think it's just some mean to keep
in mind, Like, Okay, who's the market trolling out on
(37:03):
which better running back that's a proven producer? Take that
guy at discount.
Speaker 1 (37:08):
I will just point out because you say that, well,
the fact that he's staying on the Bengals likely is
why you would be a little bit higher on him.
I mean, he was on the Bengals last year, and
if you take away the one game where he finished
with fifty three Fantasy points in half scoring a half
point PPR scoring, he did not go above twenty Fantasy
points in any other game. So not he was in
(37:29):
the teams a lot. It's not like he was absolutely atrocious.
He was still scoring to a degree, but he wasn't this.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
Sign you don't be that guy that takes away guys
that doing good games.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
Don't be that guy.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
I know.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
I'm just pointing out it's I mean, a fifty.
Speaker 3 (37:41):
When you only have one good game, it's not that
hard to do. I'll just say that when you only
had one good game.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
It's not that he had other good games.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
He didn't have any great games outside of the one
that everybody will remember.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
That's my only point.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
But we have a couple of quarterbacks he will wrap
up with. It will start with Deshaun Watson. ADP currently
is seventy fourth overall. ECR is actually even lower, ninety
second overall, and deepro's even lower than that. So I
assume you're passing pass pass pass pass.
Speaker 5 (38:11):
Uh huh now uh.
Speaker 3 (38:13):
Deshaun Watson was terrible last year and could he rebound. Sure.
The other side of that coin that nobody wants to
look at is could he still be terrible this year? Yeah,
he absolutely could be. I mean his numbers were so
bad they were like bottom of the league bad. Last
year he was. His big time throw rate was the
(38:34):
fourth worst out of all quarterbacks last year with at
least one hundred and fifty dropbacks. The only three that
were worse than him Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and yes,
Daniel Jones. But Daniel Jones didn't throw the ball down
the field at all. Deshaun Watson was terrible, man tenth
highest turnover worthy play rate. I just I have a
hard time, especially like where he's going on a lot
(38:56):
of drafts, just pressing the button considering other quarterbacks that
are going around him, Like I'm out of de Shawn Watson.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
Yeah, we don't need to believer the point I have
him in a super flex dynasye league. I have no
idea what to do, because you're right, you could write
the narrative of he was super rusty last year, it
had been for ever since he played.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
He'll bounce back with a good offense around him.
Speaker 1 (39:15):
But you could also very easy to write the narrative
that he's maybe not cooked, but just never getting back
to what we saw previously, and I really don't know
what to do with him.
Speaker 2 (39:22):
Ericson, you're a bit higher. Are you drafting him at
his current ADP?
Speaker 4 (39:25):
Yeah, I'm drafting him above ADP. I have him, have
him fifty third overall because I think he's gonna bounce back,
Like you just look, this is something deebro had mentioned
in one of our forums for the Scouting Academy. You
don't forget to be an elite athlete. And I don't
think Deshaun Watson forgot how to be an elite quarterback.
Speaker 5 (39:40):
Good call, Like, I look, the.
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Context of his situation was like nothing we have ever
seen at the quarterback position. Like he took like multiple
seasons off, he missed so much time, and they just
dropped him in Cleveland where the wind is blistering, Like
he hasn't have any chemistry with his receivers, Like it's
a whole different offense.
Speaker 5 (39:57):
Like of course he.
Speaker 4 (39:58):
Was horrible like that surprise, literally nobody that he was
horrible last year. But I say last year's tape, burn it,
burn it. I really don't think it matters. I don't
think it holds any weight, and I think that Deshaun
Watson is more likely to be a top five Fantasy
quarterback this year to finish outside the top twenty.
Speaker 1 (40:13):
Look at Ericson dunking on Debro all episode long and
then quoting him to himself at the end, well, we're
all friends.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
That was That was. I gotta tip the cap for that.
That was. That was. Look, that was very nice, sir.
Last that was that was very nice.
Speaker 1 (40:27):
Last player we're going to talk about is Anthony Richardson,
another rookie, obviously a really exciting guy for fantasy, given
the style of play at quarterback, the type of just
freak athlete that could really break the position in scoring
his FFPC bestball ADP one hundred and fourth overall ECR
one hundred and seventy ninths, that's definitely gonna come up.
I think that's probably being dragged down by just preu
(40:50):
you know, finding out there.
Speaker 5 (40:51):
Just to sleep Ryan. People are asleep at the wheel.
Anthony Richardson he cared THO, No doesn't matter now, no,
I mean.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
Like especially like now with chansnyke in in in the
Hascott Weapons, they're like that that's certainly gonna go up.
I would expect the ADP to go up as well.
You guys are both higher, so I assume you're both
drafting there. So I'll sort of twist the question to
where are you drafting him? Specifically? Ericson's starting with you.
Speaker 4 (41:16):
I have him eighty seventh overall, have him like right
outside the QB one territory. But I know, I look
at my rankings some times I'm like, should I just
like put him out a QB ten because it's it's
what we all know, Like it's the rushing upside.
Speaker 5 (41:27):
Does it? Does it always work out? Not necessarily?
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Like didn't work out with Trey Lance, didn't work out
with Malik Willis, But like this is the right process,
Like just chase these mobile quarterbacks that rush and none
of them had none of those other quarterbacks necessarily. I
think coming in as good as Anthony Richardson is honestly
and situationally situationally wise, Like his situation is so much
better than every other rookie quarterback, Like and you just
(41:51):
mentioned it too, Shane stike In, We've already seen this
like play out, Like, just draft him, it's gonna.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
Work the well and the only guy who did come
in with a better situation was Lance just because San
Francisco is so incredible to you know, it's such an
easy system to play quarterback in. But there's obviously injuries there,
and he had even less experience than Anthony Anthony Richardson
did in college, and quite frankly, wasn't as good like Richardson.
People look at him as like, oh, he's a freak
athlete who runs really well. He's probably really behind in
(42:17):
the passing game. Sure, his passing is behind his rushing ability,
but he is much further along than a guy like
Malik Willis, like you mentioned, they're not even the same stratosphere. Indeed,
Rye know you're also high on Richardson.
Speaker 3 (42:29):
QB ten, Baby, I got him at QB ten. I'm
drafting him in the sixth round. That's the same range
where I took Jalen Hurts of yesteryear. And I look
at it as the same damn bet if Richardson starts
all the games, and I'm sorry, Minshew, lovers, get the
hell out of my mentions. He's gonna start. It took
him top five, He's gonna play.
Speaker 2 (42:50):
They're saying the right quarterback.
Speaker 1 (42:53):
They're saying the right things about about the fact that
like he needs to learn by playing, and so it
doesn't make sense to learn behind you.
Speaker 3 (43:02):
He's like, the only way you learn is but taking snaps.
Richardson is playing. If he plays, he's a top twelve quarterback.
Lock it in.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
Yeah, I fully agree. And people talk about to like, oh,
it's a high ceiling low floor. I don't know if
the floor is that low. As long as you played him,
the rushing is what gives him a high floor and
also a high ceiling.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
If they say his floor is low, it's bad process
his hot If you want to accurately describe it, Richardson,
he's a high floor, low ceiling guy. If you're shading him,
if you're like me, you think he has top five
upside if everything freaking hits and his floor is QB
one top twelve.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Yep, I fully agree on the ceiling.
Speaker 5 (43:47):
Where is if we don't know?
Speaker 1 (43:48):
See, this is why you guys got to watch on
YouTube so you can see the hand gestures from de
Ro to really get the full scope of his fantasy analysis.
That's gonna wrap things up for us. Thank you everybody
for tuning in. Please be sure to check out the
FFPC Championship contest with Fantasy Pros and also again follow
us on YouTube. You know, check out all of our
cool dynasty draft kit. Everything we've got in this sight
(44:09):
is awesome. This time of year, it's we're getting back
into It's fantasy season, best ball, dynasty rookie drafts. Really
exciting time of year as we get closer here to
to the stretches the summer. So for Deebro and Erickson,
I'll wrap things up. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thank you guys
for tuning in and we'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (44:24):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 3 (45:00):
M hm m m m m mmm.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Do you little dance?
Speaker 3 (45:08):
I don't dance like that?
Speaker 2 (45:09):
Can't you just hear the music?
Speaker 4 (45:10):
Do?
Speaker 2 (45:10):
Do?
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Do do?
Speaker 2 (45:12):
Don't turn bound out? No no, no, don't
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Therapy Gecko
An unlicensed lizard psychologist travels the universe talking to strangers about absolutely nothing. TO CALL THE GECKO: follow me on https://www.twitch.tv/lyleforever to get a notification for when I am taking calls. I am usually live Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays but lately a lot of other times too. I am a gecko.