July 1, 2025 • 30 mins
Episode Overview
In this episode, John Kitchens, Jay Kinder, and Albie Stasek dive into the shifting dynamics of today’s real estate landscape—from team growth and agent migration to California’s wildfire devastation and Zillow’s evolving influence. With no guest this week, the conversation gets real as the guys dissect the core trends impacting the industry right now.
They explore how pain, opportunity, and leadership are reshaping the way agents and teams make decisions. Plus, they tackle a major emerging trend: team mergers and mega team expansion. Is this the next wave or a cultural clash waiting to happen?
This is a must-listen for team leaders, broker-owners, and agents looking to future-proof their business in 2025 and beyond.
Key Topics Covered
The Real State of Agent Movement
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Why top-producing agents and influential teams are migrating to eXp.
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What’s really motivating these moves: pain, opportunity, or timing?
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How the last two years of slowdown created a demand for more consistent systems.
Team Mergers and the Rise of Mega Teams
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Why teams are starting to merge—and whether this is smart growth or a culture crisis.
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Real-life lessons from failed mergers and what leaders need to know before joining forces.
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The importance of Patrick Lencioni’s The Motive and choosing outcome over ego.
Zillow Flex and the New Real Estate Game
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How top operators like Kyle Whissel are dominating markets through Flex.
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Why Flex is like the new REO playbook: low-margin leads, high-lifetime value.
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What most teams miss when they chase short-term profits over long-term positioning.
The California Wildfire Crisis
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A firsthand breakdown of how fires are reshaping real estate on the West Coast.
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Long-term implications for inventory, insurance, and population migration.
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Why rents and premiums are about to spike—and who might be heading to Texas or Florida.
Leadership Voids and the Agent Exodus
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Why agents are leaving legacy brands and mom-and-pop brokerages in droves.
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The silent killer: lack of leadership, vision, and meaningful direction.
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How today’s best leaders are creating followership by removing ego and casting vision.
Motivation, Vision & What Really Drives Production
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The truth about why agents plateau: financial comfort and a weak “why.”
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What Elon Musk’s obsession teaches us about drive, discipline, and mission.
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Why the pack moves at the pace of the leader—and how to lead by example.
Resources Mentioned
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The Motive by Patrick Lencioni – Must-read before attempting a team merger
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Elon Musk Biography – Referenced for insights on obsession and vision
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Seven figure success starts whenyou start thinking like a CEO.
Welcome to the John Kitchens Coach podcastexperience as your host, John Kitchens.
Get ready to think bigger andtransform your business into
a path to lasting freedom.
I What is happening, man.
Super excited to be, uh.
(00:22):
Back on another episode ofthe One Big Fire podcast.
Got the boys in the house,no guest this week, just us.
So we get to, uh, we get to dive in,chop it up, hit things that are, uh,
top of mind pressing and let's get itman, man, just the momentum right now.
Jay, you just said youbrought over a hundred agent.
Team Caleb.
(00:44):
What, what are you seeing out there?
Yeah, I'm hearing, I'm hearing, um,you know, it, it's really interesting
because, um, you know, I'm having the,you know, the same, same as always,
a lot of conversations with agents,you know, that, that, you know, from,
you know, the machine that we builtthat's, you know, recruiting a lot of,
a lot of people coming over, a lot ofbetter, um, a lot of agents that, that
close, you know, 12 to 25 transactions.
(01:05):
But, but it feels to me likethere's been more bigger teams,
uh, independent conversations.
Um, bigger players that are, thatare all about to launch and so, yeah.
It feels good.
That's been, it's been a little whilesince I've felt like that, so, uh,
I love seeing, you know, the biggerteams coming over and the bigger
(01:26):
independents and, you know, theinfluence influencers and all that.
That's all good for the company.
So what is the, what is the kind of commontheme pain point that they're feeling to.
To, to, to make a move.
Are, are they coming for,uh, moving away from pain?
Are they, are they coming overto move more to, to opportunity?
Yeah.
You know, the whole pain, pleasure.
(01:47):
So what do, do you see?
Yeah, it's a great question, John.
You know, um, I think, you know, acouple of 'em have been just timing.
You know, they, they would've cameearlier, but, you know, they were in
a deal or, you know, in a contract,some type of contract that couldn't,
you know, they couldn't get outor it didn't make sense to leave.
Um.
And, you know, thoseare all super positive.
But, but I think, you know, I think a lotof folks are coming for the opportunity.
(02:09):
I think, you know what, you know,we just, you know, experienced
the, the slowest two years in,you know, real estate since 1995.
So, you know, the upside here is, youknow, maybe it's not this year we see
the big uptick, but certainly the nextyear, you know, so I think there's a lot
of excitement and, and, you know, um.
(02:30):
All things that'll be good for housing.
So, you know, I think we're seeingthat, you know, people that are, you
know, struggled for their couple yearsto figure out how to, you know, build
a sustainable, consistent business.
That's been a lot of the, theindividual agents that I talked to
are, are they all say the same thing.
It's, it's 100% of them.
What I was doing beforeisn't working anymore.
(02:51):
I need something more consistent.
I need a, you know, I need somethingthat's gonna bring me a couple deals a
month consistently, two to three deals.
And so that's, you know, that's theconversations that, you know, the
individual agents are, are having.
And, um, you know, they're,they're just not getting support.
They're not getting help.
They're not, you know, they'renot, you know, they're not getting
anywhere with, and they're, andthey're, they're done with that,
(03:11):
you know, two years of it is enough.
And so I think that's been,that's been the temperature of
the conversations that I've had.
Um, and, and then, yeah, a lot, a lot ofinfluencer, influential, bigger teams.
Um, you know, again, you know, eventhose teams struggle just as bad, right?
Even when the market's, you know, when themarket's down, even though they're doing
a lot of numbers, it's a lot of pressureon them to get back in production.
(03:33):
You know, the grind is worse, right?
So you're just grinding, and when thingsare really good, you kind of, you know,
you can kind of, you know, you can kind ofpick and choose the deals you want to do.
When times are tight, you know, you findyourself out in the grind again and you
know, that will make you wake up andgo, man, there's gotta be a better way.
There's gotta be a better way.
And you know, when, when the gateof the mind is open, you know,
(03:53):
the, the better way is very clear.
And that is definitely exp So,so that's been, you know, kind of
the conversation I've been having.
I don't know anything, anythingdifferent You're feeling or hearing John?
John Jay, I wanna get your opinionson this and I do wanna mention, we're
gonna talk about, you know, our.
Really just suffering a devastatingly,un unimaginable, um, you know,
(04:18):
experience with the fires going on andliterally burning entire cities down.
So many people, uh, being affected by it.
Our boy, Cal Whistle and his team, eventhough he is not in la, they're down
in San Diego, they're doing, they'rethrowing their head in to best of help.
Uh, shout out to Kyle for, um, justbeing an amazing human being and, uh.
(04:39):
In, in, in a minute here.
Um, because there's some things that Iwant to talk about, what we're, what's
gonna happen in that area, becausewe're talking about one of the most
wealthy areas, most highest priced,you know, that's completely decimated.
There's nothing left.
And, and so they're startingfrom scratch and it's gonna
take a long time to rebuild.
But getting back to, um, you know,the, the agents right now that we're
(05:04):
seeing, the teams that we're seeing.
There's a theme that keeps coming up andI wanna know, and Jay, uh, I think it was
about a week ago, it was a Saturday night.
I was feeling good, you know, Ihad a couple glasses of wine in me
and my, and I had to get 'em out.
And so I talked about this theme that I'mseeing, and I'm wondering if this is gonna
(05:26):
be the next thing, because I'm seeing isthat I'm seeing teams merging together.
I'm seeing.
Like, when you kind of think about theevolution of the team and we, we, we had
that awesome podcast, the three of usdid on death of the real estate broker.
Mm-hmm.
Death of the real estate team.
What does that actually mean?
What I'm, what we've seen over thelast seven years is we've seen the
(05:48):
team entity I. Change and actuallystart gobbling up brokerages.
What I mean by that is my brokerage,my little brokerage became a team
big, you know, uh, I don't know ifnecessarily Chuck Fazi and them did it
with, with, with Revelation, but youknow, we see a lot of these brokerages
that come in and they merge overhere to exp and they become a team.
(06:11):
So the team is gobbling up the brokeragemodel, which I think is fascinating.
But have you guys seen or heardof teams combining forces?
I know we tried to do it a coupleyears into this Jay with with our boy
Matt Chase and the Chase Brothers.
That was a fun rollercoaster ride, right?
And you know, it didn't work outfor certain reasons, but there
(06:32):
were things that actually werebeneficial to both of our teams.
We just couldn't makethe culture thing work.
But I really think that that's what we'regonna see a lot more of consolidation.
We're seeing teams combine.
What are you, are you guys seeing thatand what are your thoughts on the idea
of like, you know, teams combininginto a mega team type of situation?
(06:54):
Hmm.
Yeah.
I, I have, you know, I have, I'vebeen hear, I've been hearing bigger
teams gobbling up smaller teams.
Um.
You know, that's been, um, you know,uh, I think the strategy around, you
know, Zillow and, and you know, howthey're setting up, you know, these
Zillow flex accounts is enabling, youknow, some of the better operators
to kind of, you know, uh, put teamstogether and, and go, you know, expand
(07:18):
into markets and things of that nature.
But outside of that, I haven't reallyheard that many teams going together.
I mean, it's hard.
I mean, as you know, Al,I would say that that's.
That sounds like a very challengingpath to take and, um, you know,
you have to have the two, you know,leaders with the right egos in
place to do something like that.
(07:38):
And you gotta know how to co-brand,um, or determine your, you know, how
you're gonna effectively build yourbrand, which would be a very challenging
thing for most people, I would think.
Yeah.
In theory, it makes, it,makes, makes sense, right?
You know, Hey, we can share resources,we can kind come, come together.
(07:59):
You know, our, our experience of this was.
Are we gonna buy ColdwellBanker Crossroads?
Are we not gonna buyColdwell Banker Crossroads?
And, you know, consolidatingand running as one for, you
know, an 1218 month stretch.
And it was.
It was night and day fightingeach other because you have one
(08:22):
culture versus another culture.
Yeah.
And, and different leadershipstyles, and different leadership
principles, different values.
So it just, it, it made it really, reallychallenging, really, really hard to,
to make that come together, to make it,to make it work, to make it make sense.
Where I, I think you could is,is kind of a, a, a, a bleed
(08:43):
out, um, you know, if you're, ifyou're kind of the, the inkblot.
You know, theory, if you're, if you'rekind of expanding, like what we were
able to do, just in a simple example,bleeding marketing over into Duncan,
Oklahoma, finding a, a true rock star.
She's still there to this day,which like, God bless her, you know?
Um, but just bleeding out.
It makes sense.
I think, you know, the one thingthat we found, and this kind of
(09:07):
goes back to my, to my second point.
Patrick Lencioni wrote a great bookcalled The Motive, and it was one of
the books that he released later on.
Um, I think he, I think he threw itout there in 20 And we know how, you
know, instrumental, the advantage wasfor us in our career and our thinking
as, as business owners and moving intothe future, the motive should have
(09:30):
came out even before the Advantage.
And the Fable, inside of the motiveis two companies coming together.
Two CEOs coming together and onehad to let go of the ego, and that's
the whole outcome over ego concept.
Get what is right, let's get to rightand let me get where my heart is.
(09:50):
Only one can be CEO, right?
There's only one name in the box.
You can't, you can't have, youcan't have two head of company.
So one, when you do bring that mergertogether, somebody's gotta relinquish.
I'm not head of company and it's,and it's for anybody that's coming
together with it, I would don'tdo it unless you read the motive.
Because what it talks about is one ofthem ends up taking head of marketing
(10:12):
and one of 'em takes head of headof company and they came together.
So I think it's just, just understandingthat in theory it makes sense, but it
takes great leaders and great, I, let mestep aside, not let my ego get in the way.
What is the goal?
What are we trying to accomplish?
Outcome over ego.
And let me get in my lane.
And you get in yourlane and then let's go.
(10:32):
And you look at why statistically that'sprobably the best move to do because.
What's the probability of you goinginto a new market and starting from
scratch that you're gonna succeed?
What is this failure, success rateof new, new entities, new companies?
That's why, you know, the wholemergers and acquisitions, why just go
gobble 'em up, go buy 'em instead oftrying to start it from scratch, is
(10:55):
just a higher probability of success.
Uh, so yeah, that makes sense.
So, so, so essentially John andAl you, you guys think that this
is more of an a, a new version ofexpansion into new marketplaces.
That would make, thatwould make sense to me.
'cause like everything about this soundslike, yeah, that's gonna be a like a
go over, like a tur and a punch bowl.
Like you had mentioned Zillow, andI don't wanna make the conversation
(11:20):
solely about Zillow, but I thinkthat certain people, and I'll name.
The first one that comes tomind is Kyle, Kyle Whistle.
'cause we had an extensive conversationabout what he's done in San Diego
with his Zillow Flex account.
He, you can't get Zillow Flex if,unless you're on Zillow, on Kyle's team.
He literally owns the whole county.
Like you can't buy a zip.
(11:40):
He, he, it's all his.
He's monopolized it.
And from a strategic standpoint, Imean that's huge like that, you know.
And do you have to play the game?
Yes.
It's the same thing I started, you know,the, the, the, the correlation that I
started making with Kyle's situation,it reminded me, kind of an REO how
(12:01):
some people went REO when REO startedgetting popular and you saw the, the
r the REO guys went from driving, youknow, a little Ford focus to a Mercedes.
And of course then that went away.
But you guys remember that back in ohoh 7, 0 8, 0 9 2005, 2010, those REO
guys were driving really nice cars.
(12:21):
Okay.
But it was a system.
They were playing a different game.
They had very, very little upside,like the revenue per deal was
very low, but it's a volume play.
You have to have your systems together.
And the same thing with Zillow.
Yes, it's a, but you, you can't lookat it as that initial transaction.
You have to look at it, thelifetime value of that client.
(12:43):
Yeah.
You might be getting a 35 to 40%commission, or excuse me, referral
fee taken right off the top.
Then you split it with the team,and there may not be a whole
lot left over at that point, butthey're not looking at it that way.
They're looking at the long game.
But think about all, all of the clientsthat they're just stacking into their
database for the lifetime value of thatclient, and they're looking at over the
(13:06):
long, they're not gonna pay that 40%the, the second transaction or the third
transaction, or any referrals they give.
So I, I, I like it.
What it boils down to in a kind of acaveman thing is if you had two teams.
And they were operating, obviouslyboth have a p and l with expenses.
One of the goals, I think, initially,just the way my brain works, is if you
(13:27):
combine those two expenses and you lookedat their total amount of expenses, the
goal would be to reduce that amount ofas much as possible through efficiencies.
So that would be reason one.
Reason two, the big team.
Why would the big team wannasuck up the small team?
For their producing agents.
That's the only, it's to reduceexpenses and increase productive
(13:47):
A, their productive agent countso that they can sell more units.
Those are the only two reasons I couldthink of for merging, but there's a
lot of these other things that haveto be figured out, like culture.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Big time.
Yeah.
Culture is the big thing, right?
And you think about, like, even to the,to as we were kind of talking through
this, and you know, my default alwayscomes back down to leadership and,
(14:11):
and you think like, uh, we're, we'restarting to see a bunch of people change.
A bunch of people leave and it's a,it's a leadership equation, right?
They're, they're probablynot being led the right way.
The leadership is not being provided.
And, and so yeah, I mean that they, theystart looking in, in that direction, man.
I, I just have seen people leavesituations for some of the oddest
(14:35):
things I know, but, but whenyou distill it down, what is it?
It's, it's, they're just not being ledor being felt like, you know, they're
a value to, to that organization.
And I think it's just a leadershipvoid that you're starting to see.
And especially a bunch of thesemom and pops and, and legacy
brands that are out there.
They just, they justdon't have the, you know.
(14:58):
The value and the, and theleadership capabilities to, to
really pour into the people.
You're not wrong, John, but theother side of that coin is, is that
as a vast, I would say majority ofreal estate agents aren't coachable.
I mean, there's a portionthat are court coachable.
Mm-hmm.
But mm-hmm.
The majority of 'em are.
Mm-hmm.
I mean, would you say that 60%, whichsets us right over the 50%, would you
(15:21):
say that 60% of real estate agentsthat have licenses are coachable?
I wouldn't, I wouldn'tsay that that's a no 50%.
I, I would say, I would say,well, how many real estate agents
closed a transaction last year?
Right.
Start there.
And then what is the percentage ofthose people that are coachable?
Mm-hmm.
Yes.
(15:41):
Yeah.
That would be a really muchmore interesting number there.
Yes.
Yeah.
So, yeah.
I, I, I mean yeah, absolutely.
To, to your point, and,but I think it's, it's.
Those that are, that are looking fora bigger future, man, I just keep
defaulting back to the motivation andand vision equation that PBD talked
(16:02):
about, um, al in the training, right?
He said the number one indicator thatI see is that if you struggle with
motivation, just means you have no vision.
If you have a strong enough vision,you never need to be motivated.
It's always there.
And what he and, and.
You know, for real estate agentslistening to this, guys, if you're
(16:23):
doing it for the money, once yourfinancial needs are met, foot off gas.
I mean, we learned that experience.
Like, I remember we were sittingin, uh, we were sitting in the
house 'cause in your office and, um,
uh, con Valley out in, in the house.
(16:45):
Yep.
And we're really trying to dial inthis, this salaried agent model.
Right?
Right.
We're getting you out.
We're moving states in, and we're like,where does compensation need to be?
Well, I don't know.
Let's look at the last three years.
Mm-hmm.
Of what was earned within$2,000 plus or minus.
(17:07):
Mm-hmm.
Hmm.
Why is that?
Well, let's look at, let'slook at our top agent.
Plus or minus $2,000 overthe last three years.
Why is that?
And you start to look at it and you'relike, once financial needs are met, if
there's not a big enough purpose, a bigenough vision, your foot is off gas.
Mm-hmm.
And, you know, can you, can youstoke that fire that fire's been
(17:30):
stoked in, in, in those guys, right?
Like, you go back and you look at, andyou have the conversation with, with
Stace today of, of who Stace was then.
Completely different human being,big purpose, fire lit. Like he
will, he like get out of his way.
Right.
Because he has a big purpose.
He has a big vision and I think youcan, he's proof you can kindle that.
(17:54):
I mean, you're talking about the guythat would never put a damn audible, but
account on his phone to, to just like,just seeing the e change is possible.
Yeah.
But it has to be that big visionto be able to, to push through.
I mean, look at Elon.
I dunno if you guys saw thatinterview with Elon richest man in
(18:15):
the world and he still is workingon average 120 hours a week.
Yeah.
And that means that there'sonly about seven hours a day
to sleep and do other things.
'cause he is operating all these companiesand he doesn't need to, he doesn't even,
he doesn't have to do anything And.
And yet he's still in the pocket ina very obscenely, obsessive big way.
(18:39):
Like ridiculous, seven days a week, ahundred, 120 hours a week, seven days.
I don't think that's healthy, you know,I mean, I, I don't think it is either.
But don't mean firing.
I'll bet on that pony for a minute, butI don't know how much, how much gas is
in the tank before something implodes.
(19:00):
I mean.
I'm, I'm, we are all the biggest Elonfans, so, but he's a human dream.
He might just be an alien.
Well, he might be an alien,an hundred percent alien.
What if Elon isn't human?
And he's like, lot.
That would make a lot of sense, know.
'cause I don't know if you saw Verns,uh, you know, every, every year, right?
He always, in his newsletter, healways talks out the top five,
(19:22):
top five book recommendations.
Um, going into the new year, usuallyrecaps, what were the top books in 24.
So it's kind of what hetalks about heading into 25.
Three years in a row.
You know what's on that list?
There's only one book that he'sever put on multiple lists.
He's put it on there three times.
Elon.
It's the, um, autobiography that,um, uh, the one that came out
(19:47):
about three years ago, Elon, werethey the person followed him?
The big one.
The big one, right?
Yeah.
And he said, he said, uh, read it again.
And he said, read itagain and read it again.
He said, like.
Um, Verne Hornish, he's like, hegoes, uh, he's like, through his
fourth or fifth time reading it, hegoes, I'm still pulling out things.
(20:11):
And I think that's like withany, anything great, right?
We talk about this all thetime with great books, right?
You're gonna, you're gonna receivebasically where you're at and you're
gonna get out of it what you need.
And that's why, you know, great, greatreference manuals, great books are
always really important to revisit.
Well, I mean, it's, it's the,the, the PAC's gonna move
at the pace of the leader.
And I think that's why we've, we'vefelt the shot of adrenaline in this
(20:34):
company since Leo is, was named CEO.
And can you believe it'scoming up on a year?
Wow.
You know, I think, was it April or May?
It'll be a year with this manleading and dang, I don't,
I don't know how he does it.
I don't know how he fits it all in.
And he still is disciplined enough.
He has family nights andspends time with his kids and.
(20:56):
And then he goes skin diving andlike spearfishing in Miami and he
make, he, he, he still is doing anamazing, remarkable job actually.
So, but great chat guys.
Um, love, love chopping itup with you guys about this.
Let's talk a little bit about our friendsin California that are, um, suffering
(21:16):
some, some serious, um, devastation.
Their lives are nevergonna be the same again.
Um, and it's not.
It's, it's, there's, there thisfire discriminated against no one.
Um, all classes have been affected.
And, um, you know, as it relates to ourreal estate business, California's already
(21:39):
had issues with, you know, before any firewould affect a neighborhood or a home.
Their, their process to get anythingdone from new construction to
putting up a fence in the backyard.
There is a backlog justto get a building permit.
So, and that's just a factup and down the coast.
(22:00):
So, you know, now we have over9,000 structures completely
destroyed, families displaced.
Um, they have to live somewhere.
So I actually got a message from an expagent on the East coast that her sister
lost her home in the Palisades and theywere looking for, for something to rent.
(22:20):
So when you have now all of asudden all these people have
to, they gotta live somewhere.
Yeah.
Some of 'em are gonna maybe movein with mom and dad or their
kids or a relative temporarily.
It's not a permanent solution andit's gonna take forever to rebuild.
Now we have, rents are gonnastart to climb because of it, and
it's already obscenely expensiveto live over there already.
(22:43):
What are y'all's thoughts on, onwhere this recovery can go from here?
I mean, it looks likehell on earth over there.
Um, it's, I'm crazy.
Um, yeah, I mean, it's gonna take time.
I mean, you know, hope, hopefully, youknow, they're just not good at change
over there, so, you know, you know, unlessyou know the federal government steps in
(23:04):
which Trump probably will to do something,you know, California just seems like
they're just gonna continue to mess it up.
Um.
And make it difficult.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
They, they interviewed Josh Altmanand he said that, um, you know,
it's worse than you can imagine.
Like, whatever.
(23:25):
You can think how bad it is.
It's way beyond that, and I believe him.
Yeah.
And it's, um, it's very sad.
It's one of these things like, we feelhandcuffed because we, you know, the,
the thing that I love a lot, we, we,we might be found like criticizing
real estate agents, you know, a lotand they're, you know, large percentage
aren't coachable and this and that.
(23:46):
But you know, the one thing that Ilove about being part of the real
estate community is they're the mostgiving people shirt off your back.
Uh, that I will say the majorityare, and I don't know why that is.
It's, it's kind of interesting.
I don't.
Um, really identify other largeconglomerate professionals
like for instance, attorneys.
(24:07):
Nothing against attorneys.
A lot of my close friends are attorneys.
I just don't see thatas a personality trait.
Transferring over to other, youknow, another large, um, trade group.
But we are so I know that.
Obviously our company is, is, is alreadydoing, you know, big things to raise money
(24:27):
and, and help people that are in need.
But really the, I'm that's,that's the short term.
I mean, we know that Biden,uh, was generous enough that,
you know, he authorized $720per person that got displaced.
I ain't gonna comment further onthat, but again, you know, it's a
short term fix to a long-term problem.
(24:49):
Long-term, it's gonna takeforever to build Malibu back.
It's gonna take years, you know,and we got the Olympics, I think
are supposed to come to LA Right.
In four years.
Is that true?
Mm-hmm.
That's in the Yep.
Coming up I think to,to your whole point out.
Right.
I, um, you know, you think about even,even things over the last, you know,
(25:11):
the, the, the country over the last,just over the last six months, right.
Got the Carolinas, you gotTampa, you got, you know, all
the areas that have been hit and.
I have more faith that things will movein a better direction in about a week
than I would if that wasn't the case.
(25:33):
And so, um, yeah, it, um, it is, it'sman, it's, it's just sick to watch it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
A little from this article from Iman,um, what people are hearing is okay.
The reality is.
Is that what's fresh right now ispeople quite literally figuring out
(25:55):
where they're going to live for thenext 90 days, let alone the next
12 months, three years, five years.
Their focus is where amI gonna put my family?
Mm-hmm.
Where are they going to live?
How am I gonna put a roof over theirhead and you know, what am I then?
Then it's long term.
And I got, you know, I have to, Ihave to say that there's already
(26:17):
this surge of people moving fromCalifornia to Texas, Florida.
I think that this is gonna increase it.
It's gonna increase the surge peopleare gonna get, get out of there.
Mm-hmm.
And the other part of this is thatinsurance companies have been running from
California for the last 12 to 18 months.
I mean, they're running from a lotof places, even Florida as well.
(26:39):
But they're just not insur.
They're not gonna be insuring,like State Farm, I think pull
pulled over 90,000 policies.
They're not renewing them.
So these people that have StateFarm, which is probably the one most
like conservative, you have to havereally good credit to get State Farm.
You know what I mean?
Like it's not like a Geicoor anything like this.
Like they're pulling out,they're like, we're out guys.
(27:01):
We can't do it becausethey're trying to subsidize.
So you have insurance issues.
You know, they, I, there was astatistic, and I don't know the
exact statistic, but there's a highpercentage of deals that fall out at
the end sales because of insurance,because they can't get the premium to
a reasonable amount to where they caneven afford the payment on the house.
(27:21):
So they just, the deal fallsapart because of insurance.
This is just gonnaskyrocket those premiums.
This ain't gonna send 'em in the,in the south southern direction.
They're going north, which isgonna force more people out.
It's not a good situation, butI think, you know, one, one
solution for some families, maybenot all, Hey, come to Texas.
(27:46):
Come to Florida, Ohio.
Come, come to some of these other areaswhere, you know, there maybe, I don't
know, Florida is gonna have a housingshortage as well, if not already.
Um, I don't know about Texas.
You guys, your, your prices aren't going.
Lowering either.
Uh, yeah, I talked to ChrisWaters, uh, earlier this week.
(28:07):
He said, Austin'sinventory's up tremendously.
Um, values are, you know,prices are coming down.
It's rough.
And, and Austin right now, uh, andDallas, it's, it's, it's a little
bit slower, but we're not seeing the,the price, the price, uh, drops and
or any, any of that kind of stuff.
So it seems like they justare a, a one-off situation
where they overbuilt for.
(28:29):
You know what jobs, and you knowwhat, what, there, there was
a ton of people moving there.
I know they overbuilt in termsof apartments, but it's really
interesting to see that their marketis, is, is suffering so much and,
and that DFWs not, but, but yeah.
So to be determined, yeah.
Yeah.
I think that is kind of the feedbackI've got outta Florida as well.
I mean, inventories are creeping up andprices are not, not backing up a little
(28:53):
bit, but they're not, they're not jumping.
So, um, it'll be interestingto see kind of how.
Things play out over the next sixty,ninety, a hundred twenty days.
Awesome guys.
Well, hey, good, good talks.
Um, our prayers are with the peoplein, um, in California and, um,
(29:14):
obviously, uh, we, we, we want themto, um, to recover as soon as possible.
Uh, and this all to, to, to starton the recovery path because right
now they're still fighting it.
They're still losing.
Losing homes every day.
So prayers to to, toCalifornia and LA area.
Um, that's about it guys.
Uh, other than that, let's keep cranking.
(29:37):
The future is looking bright.
Um, yes, sir. And I think, um, um, justfrom a, from an exp standpoint, they're
at back at Nasdaq, um, next week.
On the 21st right after, uh, um, youknow, Monday and Monday's a big day.
And, and, and also, uh, Tuesday'sgonna be a big day with exp at Nasdaq.
(29:58):
Yep.
Two, two days.
Oh, H oh h io.
Oh, Texas.
Let's go.
Alright guys.
Appreciate you.
Awesome.
S That's a wrap for today.
I hope you got somethingvaluable from this episode.
If you did, hit follow andvisit John kitchens.coach for
(30:18):
more ways we can work together.
See you on the next episode.
Seven figure success starts whenyou start thinking like a CEO.
Welcome to the John Kitchens Coach podcastexperience as your host, John Kitchens.
Get ready to think bigger andtransform your business into
a path to lasting freedom.
I What is happening, man.
Super excited to be, uh.
(00:22):
Back on another episode ofthe One Big Fire podcast.
Got the boys in the house,no guest this week, just us.
So we get to, uh, we get to dive in,chop it up, hit things that are, uh,
top of mind pressing and let's get itman, man, just the momentum right now.
Jay, you just said youbrought over a hundred agent.
Team Caleb.
(00:44):
What, what are you seeing out there?
Yeah, I'm hearing, I'm hearing, um,you know, it, it's really interesting
because, um, you know, I'm having the,you know, the same, same as always,
a lot of conversations with agents,you know, that, that, you know, from,
you know, the machine that we builtthat's, you know, recruiting a lot of,
a lot of people coming over, a lot ofbetter, um, a lot of agents that, that
close, you know, 12 to 25 transactions.
(01:05):
But, but it feels to me likethere's been more bigger teams,
uh, independent conversations.
Um, bigger players that are, thatare all about to launch and so, yeah.
It feels good.
That's been, it's been a little whilesince I've felt like that, so, uh,
I love seeing, you know, the biggerteams coming over and the bigger
(01:26):
independents and, you know, theinfluence influencers and all that.
That's all good for the company.
So what is the, what is the kind of commontheme pain point that they're feeling to.
To, to, to make a move.
Are, are they coming for,uh, moving away from pain?
Are they, are they coming overto move more to, to opportunity?
Yeah.
You know, the whole pain, pleasure.
(01:47):
So what do, do you see?
Yeah, it's a great question, John.
You know, um, I think, you know, acouple of 'em have been just timing.
You know, they, they would've cameearlier, but, you know, they were in
a deal or, you know, in a contract,some type of contract that couldn't,
you know, they couldn't get outor it didn't make sense to leave.
Um.
And, you know, thoseare all super positive.
But, but I think, you know, I think a lotof folks are coming for the opportunity.
(02:09):
I think, you know what, you know,we just, you know, experienced
the, the slowest two years in,you know, real estate since 1995.
So, you know, the upside here is, youknow, maybe it's not this year we see
the big uptick, but certainly the nextyear, you know, so I think there's a lot
of excitement and, and, you know, um.
(02:30):
All things that'll be good for housing.
So, you know, I think we're seeingthat, you know, people that are, you
know, struggled for their couple yearsto figure out how to, you know, build
a sustainable, consistent business.
That's been a lot of the, theindividual agents that I talked to
are, are they all say the same thing.
It's, it's 100% of them.
What I was doing beforeisn't working anymore.
(02:51):
I need something more consistent.
I need a, you know, I need somethingthat's gonna bring me a couple deals a
month consistently, two to three deals.
And so that's, you know, that's theconversations that, you know, the
individual agents are, are having.
And, um, you know, they're,they're just not getting support.
They're not getting help.
They're not, you know, they'renot, you know, they're not getting
anywhere with, and they're, andthey're, they're done with that,
(03:11):
you know, two years of it is enough.
And so I think that's been,that's been the temperature of
the conversations that I've had.
Um, and, and then, yeah, a lot, a lot ofinfluencer, influential, bigger teams.
Um, you know, again, you know, eventhose teams struggle just as bad, right?
Even when the market's, you know, when themarket's down, even though they're doing
a lot of numbers, it's a lot of pressureon them to get back in production.
(03:33):
You know, the grind is worse, right?
So you're just grinding, and when thingsare really good, you kind of, you know,
you can kind of, you know, you can kind ofpick and choose the deals you want to do.
When times are tight, you know, you findyourself out in the grind again and you
know, that will make you wake up andgo, man, there's gotta be a better way.
There's gotta be a better way.
And you know, when, when the gateof the mind is open, you know,
(03:53):
the, the better way is very clear.
And that is definitely exp So,so that's been, you know, kind of
the conversation I've been having.
I don't know anything, anythingdifferent You're feeling or hearing John?
John Jay, I wanna get your opinionson this and I do wanna mention, we're
gonna talk about, you know, our.
Really just suffering a devastatingly,un unimaginable, um, you know,
(04:18):
experience with the fires going on andliterally burning entire cities down.
So many people, uh, being affected by it.
Our boy, Cal Whistle and his team, eventhough he is not in la, they're down
in San Diego, they're doing, they'rethrowing their head in to best of help.
Uh, shout out to Kyle for, um, justbeing an amazing human being and, uh.
(04:39):
In, in, in a minute here.
Um, because there's some things that Iwant to talk about, what we're, what's
gonna happen in that area, becausewe're talking about one of the most
wealthy areas, most highest priced,you know, that's completely decimated.
There's nothing left.
And, and so they're startingfrom scratch and it's gonna
take a long time to rebuild.
But getting back to, um, you know,the, the agents right now that we're
(05:04):
seeing, the teams that we're seeing.
There's a theme that keeps coming up andI wanna know, and Jay, uh, I think it was
about a week ago, it was a Saturday night.
I was feeling good, you know, Ihad a couple glasses of wine in me
and my, and I had to get 'em out.
And so I talked about this theme that I'mseeing, and I'm wondering if this is gonna
(05:26):
be the next thing, because I'm seeing isthat I'm seeing teams merging together.
I'm seeing.
Like, when you kind of think about theevolution of the team and we, we, we had
that awesome podcast, the three of usdid on death of the real estate broker.
Mm-hmm.
Death of the real estate team.
What does that actually mean?
What I'm, what we've seen over thelast seven years is we've seen the
(05:48):
team entity I. Change and actuallystart gobbling up brokerages.
What I mean by that is my brokerage,my little brokerage became a team
big, you know, uh, I don't know ifnecessarily Chuck Fazi and them did it
with, with, with Revelation, but youknow, we see a lot of these brokerages
that come in and they merge overhere to exp and they become a team.
(06:11):
So the team is gobbling up the brokeragemodel, which I think is fascinating.
But have you guys seen or heardof teams combining forces?
I know we tried to do it a coupleyears into this Jay with with our boy
Matt Chase and the Chase Brothers.
That was a fun rollercoaster ride, right?
And you know, it didn't work outfor certain reasons, but there
(06:32):
were things that actually werebeneficial to both of our teams.
We just couldn't makethe culture thing work.
But I really think that that's what we'regonna see a lot more of consolidation.
We're seeing teams combine.
What are you, are you guys seeing thatand what are your thoughts on the idea
of like, you know, teams combininginto a mega team type of situation?
(06:54):
Hmm.
Yeah.
I, I have, you know, I have, I'vebeen hear, I've been hearing bigger
teams gobbling up smaller teams.
Um.
You know, that's been, um, you know,uh, I think the strategy around, you
know, Zillow and, and you know, howthey're setting up, you know, these
Zillow flex accounts is enabling, youknow, some of the better operators
to kind of, you know, uh, put teamstogether and, and go, you know, expand
(07:18):
into markets and things of that nature.
But outside of that, I haven't reallyheard that many teams going together.
I mean, it's hard.
I mean, as you know, Al,I would say that that's.
That sounds like a very challengingpath to take and, um, you know,
you have to have the two, you know,leaders with the right egos in
place to do something like that.
(07:38):
And you gotta know how to co-brand,um, or determine your, you know, how
you're gonna effectively build yourbrand, which would be a very challenging
thing for most people, I would think.
Yeah.
In theory, it makes, it,makes, makes sense, right?
You know, Hey, we can share resources,we can kind come, come together.
(07:59):
You know, our, our experience of this was.
Are we gonna buy ColdwellBanker Crossroads?
Are we not gonna buyColdwell Banker Crossroads?
And, you know, consolidatingand running as one for, you
know, an 1218 month stretch.
And it was.
It was night and day fightingeach other because you have one
(08:22):
culture versus another culture.
Yeah.
And, and different leadershipstyles, and different leadership
principles, different values.
So it just, it, it made it really, reallychallenging, really, really hard to,
to make that come together, to make it,to make it work, to make it make sense.
Where I, I think you could is,is kind of a, a, a, a bleed
(08:43):
out, um, you know, if you're, ifyou're kind of the, the inkblot.
You know, theory, if you're, if you'rekind of expanding, like what we were
able to do, just in a simple example,bleeding marketing over into Duncan,
Oklahoma, finding a, a true rock star.
She's still there to this day,which like, God bless her, you know?
Um, but just bleeding out.
It makes sense.
I think, you know, the one thingthat we found, and this kind of
(09:07):
goes back to my, to my second point.
Patrick Lencioni wrote a great bookcalled The Motive, and it was one of
the books that he released later on.
Um, I think he, I think he threw itout there in 20 And we know how, you
know, instrumental, the advantage wasfor us in our career and our thinking
as, as business owners and moving intothe future, the motive should have
(09:30):
came out even before the Advantage.
And the Fable, inside of the motiveis two companies coming together.
Two CEOs coming together and onehad to let go of the ego, and that's
the whole outcome over ego concept.
Get what is right, let's get to rightand let me get where my heart is.
(09:50):
Only one can be CEO, right?
There's only one name in the box.
You can't, you can't have, youcan't have two head of company.
So one, when you do bring that mergertogether, somebody's gotta relinquish.
I'm not head of company and it's,and it's for anybody that's coming
together with it, I would don'tdo it unless you read the motive.
Because what it talks about is one ofthem ends up taking head of marketing
(10:12):
and one of 'em takes head of headof company and they came together.
So I think it's just, just understandingthat in theory it makes sense, but it
takes great leaders and great, I, let mestep aside, not let my ego get in the way.
What is the goal?
What are we trying to accomplish?
Outcome over ego.
And let me get in my lane.
And you get in yourlane and then let's go.
(10:32):
And you look at why statistically that'sprobably the best move to do because.
What's the probability of you goinginto a new market and starting from
scratch that you're gonna succeed?
What is this failure, success rateof new, new entities, new companies?
That's why, you know, the wholemergers and acquisitions, why just go
gobble 'em up, go buy 'em instead oftrying to start it from scratch, is
(10:55):
just a higher probability of success.
Uh, so yeah, that makes sense.
So, so, so essentially John andAl you, you guys think that this
is more of an a, a new version ofexpansion into new marketplaces.
That would make, thatwould make sense to me.
'cause like everything about this soundslike, yeah, that's gonna be a like a
go over, like a tur and a punch bowl.
Like you had mentioned Zillow, andI don't wanna make the conversation
(11:20):
solely about Zillow, but I thinkthat certain people, and I'll name.
The first one that comes tomind is Kyle, Kyle Whistle.
'cause we had an extensive conversationabout what he's done in San Diego
with his Zillow Flex account.
He, you can't get Zillow Flex if,unless you're on Zillow, on Kyle's team.
He literally owns the whole county.
Like you can't buy a zip.
(11:40):
He, he, it's all his.
He's monopolized it.
And from a strategic standpoint, Imean that's huge like that, you know.
And do you have to play the game?
Yes.
It's the same thing I started, you know,the, the, the, the correlation that I
started making with Kyle's situation,it reminded me, kind of an REO how
(12:01):
some people went REO when REO startedgetting popular and you saw the, the
r the REO guys went from driving, youknow, a little Ford focus to a Mercedes.
And of course then that went away.
But you guys remember that back in ohoh 7, 0 8, 0 9 2005, 2010, those REO
guys were driving really nice cars.
(12:21):
Okay.
But it was a system.
They were playing a different game.
They had very, very little upside,like the revenue per deal was
very low, but it's a volume play.
You have to have your systems together.
And the same thing with Zillow.
Yes, it's a, but you, you can't lookat it as that initial transaction.
You have to look at it, thelifetime value of that client.
(12:43):
Yeah.
You might be getting a 35 to 40%commission, or excuse me, referral
fee taken right off the top.
Then you split it with the team,and there may not be a whole
lot left over at that point, butthey're not looking at it that way.
They're looking at the long game.
But think about all, all of the clientsthat they're just stacking into their
database for the lifetime value of thatclient, and they're looking at over the
(13:06):
long, they're not gonna pay that 40%the, the second transaction or the third
transaction, or any referrals they give.
So I, I, I like it.
What it boils down to in a kind of acaveman thing is if you had two teams.
And they were operating, obviouslyboth have a p and l with expenses.
One of the goals, I think, initially,just the way my brain works, is if you
(13:27):
combine those two expenses and you lookedat their total amount of expenses, the
goal would be to reduce that amount ofas much as possible through efficiencies.
So that would be reason one.
Reason two, the big team.
Why would the big team wannasuck up the small team?
For their producing agents.
That's the only, it's to reduceexpenses and increase productive
(13:47):
A, their productive agent countso that they can sell more units.
Those are the only two reasons I couldthink of for merging, but there's a
lot of these other things that haveto be figured out, like culture.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Big time.
Yeah.
Culture is the big thing, right?
And you think about, like, even to the,to as we were kind of talking through
this, and you know, my default alwayscomes back down to leadership and,
(14:11):
and you think like, uh, we're, we'restarting to see a bunch of people change.
A bunch of people leave and it's a,it's a leadership equation, right?
They're, they're probablynot being led the right way.
The leadership is not being provided.
And, and so yeah, I mean that they, theystart looking in, in that direction, man.
I, I just have seen people leavesituations for some of the oddest
(14:35):
things I know, but, but whenyou distill it down, what is it?
It's, it's, they're just not being ledor being felt like, you know, they're
a value to, to that organization.
And I think it's just a leadershipvoid that you're starting to see.
And especially a bunch of thesemom and pops and, and legacy
brands that are out there.
They just, they justdon't have the, you know.
(14:58):
The value and the, and theleadership capabilities to, to
really pour into the people.
You're not wrong, John, but theother side of that coin is, is that
as a vast, I would say majority ofreal estate agents aren't coachable.
I mean, there's a portionthat are court coachable.
Mm-hmm.
But mm-hmm.
The majority of 'em are.
Mm-hmm.
I mean, would you say that 60%, whichsets us right over the 50%, would you
(15:21):
say that 60% of real estate agentsthat have licenses are coachable?
I wouldn't, I wouldn'tsay that that's a no 50%.
I, I would say, I would say,well, how many real estate agents
closed a transaction last year?
Right.
Start there.
And then what is the percentage ofthose people that are coachable?
Mm-hmm.
Yes.
(15:41):
Yeah.
That would be a really muchmore interesting number there.
Yes.
Yeah.
So, yeah.
I, I, I mean yeah, absolutely.
To, to your point, and,but I think it's, it's.
Those that are, that are looking fora bigger future, man, I just keep
defaulting back to the motivation andand vision equation that PBD talked
(16:02):
about, um, al in the training, right?
He said the number one indicator thatI see is that if you struggle with
motivation, just means you have no vision.
If you have a strong enough vision,you never need to be motivated.
It's always there.
And what he and, and.
You know, for real estate agentslistening to this, guys, if you're
(16:23):
doing it for the money, once yourfinancial needs are met, foot off gas.
I mean, we learned that experience.
Like, I remember we were sittingin, uh, we were sitting in the
house 'cause in your office and, um,
uh, con Valley out in, in the house.
(16:45):
Yep.
And we're really trying to dial inthis, this salaried agent model.
Right?
Right.
We're getting you out.
We're moving states in, and we're like,where does compensation need to be?
Well, I don't know.
Let's look at the last three years.
Mm-hmm.
Of what was earned within$2,000 plus or minus.
(17:07):
Mm-hmm.
Hmm.
Why is that?
Well, let's look at, let'slook at our top agent.
Plus or minus $2,000 overthe last three years.
Why is that?
And you start to look at it and you'relike, once financial needs are met, if
there's not a big enough purpose, a bigenough vision, your foot is off gas.
Mm-hmm.
And, you know, can you, can youstoke that fire that fire's been
(17:30):
stoked in, in, in those guys, right?
Like, you go back and you look at, andyou have the conversation with, with
Stace today of, of who Stace was then.
Completely different human being,big purpose, fire lit. Like he
will, he like get out of his way.
Right.
Because he has a big purpose.
He has a big vision and I think youcan, he's proof you can kindle that.
(17:54):
I mean, you're talking about the guythat would never put a damn audible, but
account on his phone to, to just like,just seeing the e change is possible.
Yeah.
But it has to be that big visionto be able to, to push through.
I mean, look at Elon.
I dunno if you guys saw thatinterview with Elon richest man in
(18:15):
the world and he still is workingon average 120 hours a week.
Yeah.
And that means that there'sonly about seven hours a day
to sleep and do other things.
'cause he is operating all these companiesand he doesn't need to, he doesn't even,
he doesn't have to do anything And.
And yet he's still in the pocket ina very obscenely, obsessive big way.
(18:39):
Like ridiculous, seven days a week, ahundred, 120 hours a week, seven days.
I don't think that's healthy, you know,I mean, I, I don't think it is either.
But don't mean firing.
I'll bet on that pony for a minute, butI don't know how much, how much gas is
in the tank before something implodes.
(19:00):
I mean.
I'm, I'm, we are all the biggest Elonfans, so, but he's a human dream.
He might just be an alien.
Well, he might be an alien,an hundred percent alien.
What if Elon isn't human?
And he's like, lot.
That would make a lot of sense, know.
'cause I don't know if you saw Verns,uh, you know, every, every year, right?
He always, in his newsletter, healways talks out the top five,
(19:22):
top five book recommendations.
Um, going into the new year, usuallyrecaps, what were the top books in 24.
So it's kind of what hetalks about heading into 25.
Three years in a row.
You know what's on that list?
There's only one book that he'sever put on multiple lists.
He's put it on there three times.
Elon.
It's the, um, autobiography that,um, uh, the one that came out
(19:47):
about three years ago, Elon, werethey the person followed him?
The big one.
The big one, right?
Yeah.
And he said, he said, uh, read it again.
And he said, read itagain and read it again.
He said, like.
Um, Verne Hornish, he's like, hegoes, uh, he's like, through his
fourth or fifth time reading it, hegoes, I'm still pulling out things.
(20:11):
And I think that's like withany, anything great, right?
We talk about this all thetime with great books, right?
You're gonna, you're gonna receivebasically where you're at and you're
gonna get out of it what you need.
And that's why, you know, great, greatreference manuals, great books are
always really important to revisit.
Well, I mean, it's, it's the,the, the PAC's gonna move
at the pace of the leader.
And I think that's why we've, we'vefelt the shot of adrenaline in this
(20:34):
company since Leo is, was named CEO.
And can you believe it'scoming up on a year?
Wow.
You know, I think, was it April or May?
It'll be a year with this manleading and dang, I don't,
I don't know how he does it.
I don't know how he fits it all in.
And he still is disciplined enough.
He has family nights andspends time with his kids and.
(20:56):
And then he goes skin diving andlike spearfishing in Miami and he
make, he, he, he still is doing anamazing, remarkable job actually.
So, but great chat guys.
Um, love, love chopping itup with you guys about this.
Let's talk a little bit about our friendsin California that are, um, suffering
(21:16):
some, some serious, um, devastation.
Their lives are nevergonna be the same again.
Um, and it's not.
It's, it's, there's, there thisfire discriminated against no one.
Um, all classes have been affected.
And, um, you know, as it relates to ourreal estate business, California's already
(21:39):
had issues with, you know, before any firewould affect a neighborhood or a home.
Their, their process to get anythingdone from new construction to
putting up a fence in the backyard.
There is a backlog justto get a building permit.
So, and that's just a factup and down the coast.
(22:00):
So, you know, now we have over9,000 structures completely
destroyed, families displaced.
Um, they have to live somewhere.
So I actually got a message from an expagent on the East coast that her sister
lost her home in the Palisades and theywere looking for, for something to rent.
(22:20):
So when you have now all of asudden all these people have
to, they gotta live somewhere.
Yeah.
Some of 'em are gonna maybe movein with mom and dad or their
kids or a relative temporarily.
It's not a permanent solution andit's gonna take forever to rebuild.
Now we have, rents are gonnastart to climb because of it, and
it's already obscenely expensiveto live over there already.
(22:43):
What are y'all's thoughts on, onwhere this recovery can go from here?
I mean, it looks likehell on earth over there.
Um, it's, I'm crazy.
Um, yeah, I mean, it's gonna take time.
I mean, you know, hope, hopefully, youknow, they're just not good at change
over there, so, you know, you know, unlessyou know the federal government steps in
(23:04):
which Trump probably will to do something,you know, California just seems like
they're just gonna continue to mess it up.
Um.
And make it difficult.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
They, they interviewed Josh Altmanand he said that, um, you know,
it's worse than you can imagine.
Like, whatever.
(23:25):
You can think how bad it is.
It's way beyond that, and I believe him.
Yeah.
And it's, um, it's very sad.
It's one of these things like, we feelhandcuffed because we, you know, the,
the thing that I love a lot, we, we,we might be found like criticizing
real estate agents, you know, a lotand they're, you know, large percentage
aren't coachable and this and that.
(23:46):
But you know, the one thing that Ilove about being part of the real
estate community is they're the mostgiving people shirt off your back.
Uh, that I will say the majorityare, and I don't know why that is.
It's, it's kind of interesting.
I don't.
Um, really identify other largeconglomerate professionals
like for instance, attorneys.
(24:07):
Nothing against attorneys.
A lot of my close friends are attorneys.
I just don't see thatas a personality trait.
Transferring over to other, youknow, another large, um, trade group.
But we are so I know that.
Obviously our company is, is, is alreadydoing, you know, big things to raise money
(24:27):
and, and help people that are in need.
But really the, I'm that's,that's the short term.
I mean, we know that Biden,uh, was generous enough that,
you know, he authorized $720per person that got displaced.
I ain't gonna comment further onthat, but again, you know, it's a
short term fix to a long-term problem.
(24:49):
Long-term, it's gonna takeforever to build Malibu back.
It's gonna take years, you know,and we got the Olympics, I think
are supposed to come to LA Right.
In four years.
Is that true?
Mm-hmm.
That's in the Yep.
Coming up I think to,to your whole point out.
Right.
I, um, you know, you think about even,even things over the last, you know,
(25:11):
the, the, the country over the last,just over the last six months, right.
Got the Carolinas, you gotTampa, you got, you know, all
the areas that have been hit and.
I have more faith that things will movein a better direction in about a week
than I would if that wasn't the case.
(25:33):
And so, um, yeah, it, um, it is, it'sman, it's, it's just sick to watch it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
A little from this article from Iman,um, what people are hearing is okay.
The reality is.
Is that what's fresh right now ispeople quite literally figuring out
(25:55):
where they're going to live for thenext 90 days, let alone the next
12 months, three years, five years.
Their focus is where amI gonna put my family?
Mm-hmm.
Where are they going to live?
How am I gonna put a roof over theirhead and you know, what am I then?
Then it's long term.
And I got, you know, I have to, Ihave to say that there's already
(26:17):
this surge of people moving fromCalifornia to Texas, Florida.
I think that this is gonna increase it.
It's gonna increase the surge peopleare gonna get, get out of there.
Mm-hmm.
And the other part of this is thatinsurance companies have been running from
California for the last 12 to 18 months.
I mean, they're running from a lotof places, even Florida as well.
(26:39):
But they're just not insur.
They're not gonna be insuring,like State Farm, I think pull
pulled over 90,000 policies.
They're not renewing them.
So these people that have StateFarm, which is probably the one most
like conservative, you have to havereally good credit to get State Farm.
You know what I mean?
Like it's not like a Geicoor anything like this.
Like they're pulling out,they're like, we're out guys.
(27:01):
We can't do it becausethey're trying to subsidize.
So you have insurance issues.
You know, they, I, there was astatistic, and I don't know the
exact statistic, but there's a highpercentage of deals that fall out at
the end sales because of insurance,because they can't get the premium to
a reasonable amount to where they caneven afford the payment on the house.
(27:21):
So they just, the deal fallsapart because of insurance.
This is just gonnaskyrocket those premiums.
This ain't gonna send 'em in the,in the south southern direction.
They're going north, which isgonna force more people out.
It's not a good situation, butI think, you know, one, one
solution for some families, maybenot all, Hey, come to Texas.
(27:46):
Come to Florida, Ohio.
Come, come to some of these other areaswhere, you know, there maybe, I don't
know, Florida is gonna have a housingshortage as well, if not already.
Um, I don't know about Texas.
You guys, your, your prices aren't going.
Lowering either.
Uh, yeah, I talked to ChrisWaters, uh, earlier this week.
(28:07):
He said, Austin'sinventory's up tremendously.
Um, values are, you know,prices are coming down.
It's rough.
And, and Austin right now, uh, andDallas, it's, it's, it's a little
bit slower, but we're not seeing the,the price, the price, uh, drops and
or any, any of that kind of stuff.
So it seems like they justare a, a one-off situation
where they overbuilt for.
(28:29):
You know what jobs, and you knowwhat, what, there, there was
a ton of people moving there.
I know they overbuilt in termsof apartments, but it's really
interesting to see that their marketis, is, is suffering so much and,
and that DFWs not, but, but yeah.
So to be determined, yeah.
Yeah.
I think that is kind of the feedbackI've got outta Florida as well.
I mean, inventories are creeping up andprices are not, not backing up a little
(28:53):
bit, but they're not, they're not jumping.
So, um, it'll be interestingto see kind of how.
Things play out over the next sixty,ninety, a hundred twenty days.
Awesome guys.
Well, hey, good, good talks.
Um, our prayers are with the peoplein, um, in California and, um,
(29:14):
obviously, uh, we, we, we want themto, um, to recover as soon as possible.
Uh, and this all to, to, to starton the recovery path because right
now they're still fighting it.
They're still losing.
Losing homes every day.
So prayers to to, toCalifornia and LA area.
Um, that's about it guys.
Uh, other than that, let's keep cranking.
(29:37):
The future is looking bright.
Um, yes, sir. And I think, um, um, justfrom a, from an exp standpoint, they're
at back at Nasdaq, um, next week.
On the 21st right after, uh, um, youknow, Monday and Monday's a big day.
And, and, and also, uh, Tuesday'sgonna be a big day with exp at Nasdaq.
(29:58):
Yep.
Two, two days.
Oh, H oh h io.
Oh, Texas.
Let's go.
Alright guys.
Appreciate you.
Awesome.
S That's a wrap for today.
I hope you got somethingvaluable from this episode.
If you did, hit follow andvisit John kitchens.coach for
(30:18):
more ways we can work together.
See you on the next episode.
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