March 12, 2025 • 34 mins
Read the full show notes at malphursgroup.com/281
Join hosts Scott Ball and A.J. Mathieu in this episode of The Church Revitalization Podcast as they delve into the latest data on Christianity in America. After decades of decline, there's a glimmer of hope—has the trend finally plateaued? Discover the good news and the challenges still facing the church today.
Scott and A.J. explore the factors contributing to the stabilization of Christian identification and the generational shifts influencing these numbers. With 86% of Americans believing in a soul and 83% acknowledging a higher power, the hosts emphasize the significant opportunities for outreach and transformation.
Learn why it's crucial for churches to refocus on fundamental practices, discipleship, and outreach to turn the tide. Whether you're a church leader or member, this episode offers actionable insights to help your church thrive and impact your community.
Listen now to understand what this means for your church and how you can be a part of reversing the trend. Don't miss this vital conversation on the future of faith in America.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Christianity in America. Is the decline over? Find out right
now on the Church Revitalization Podcast. Hello, and
welcome to the Church Revitalization Podcast, brought to you by
the Malthus Group team, where each week we tackle important,
actionable topics to help churches thrive. And now
here's your hosts, Scott Ball and A.J. Mathieu.
(00:25):
Welcome to the Church Revitalization Podcast. My name is Scott Ball. I'm joined by
my friend and cohost, A.J. Mathieu.
A.J., we've got some new news. We we
occasionally, do an episode like this where we see something come
across the wire. This is not exactly a breaking news program
where we do, we don't do the news. But I lost the teletype just
(00:47):
now. Hey. You see? Hang on. Hang on. I got it got it right off
the wire. Okay. But I did see
this, article come across the
the airwaves last week. As we're recording it, it was last
week. So there's a little bit of a tell for when we're recording this.
But, I thought this is good. This is a good thing for us to
(01:10):
talk about when there's a big update, I think a big,
data dump on what are we learning about Christianity
is particularly in The US.
It's it's worth us chatting about because this is our bread and butter. This is
our business. This is what we we work in every day is church decline, church
(01:30):
growth, church stabilization, church plateaus. So when we see a big study on this,
we definitely wanna talk about it. Apologies, I guess, to our international
listeners, and there's lots and lots of you. But there, I think, are still some
practical things for us to to glean from this, especially towards the end of today's
episodes. With that, do we wanna just dive into
the data? We're gonna break it down this way. We're gonna we're gonna talk about
(01:53):
the good news from this data. Just a spoiler alert, there's
some bad news, as well, and then we'll kinda wrap up by
talking about what is this what does this mean for your church? What what does
it matter anyway for you? So Okay. So let's do it.
We'll start with the good. Let's start with the less bad news. The good
Less bad news. Is relative. Good is relative. Yeah. Relative to bad,
(02:15):
this is good. And that is that the this relatively
steady decline in the American church
has seemingly come to a bit of a plateau or a slowdown. So
it's kind of flattening out a little bit in recent years. Well, yeah, I mean,
I think that that's actually what caught my attention
at least is that a lot of the headlines from
(02:38):
news organizations were headlines like US
Christianity stabilizing after decades of decline.
I mean, like, this seemed like top
line. Wow. Good news. The work that we're
doing with churches is working, you know, and lots of people, not just us, but
there are a lot of organizations working on this problem.
(03:01):
And so it caught my attention. But, of course, you know,
well, let's just stick with the good news for now. It's it's
Yeah. So I guess it's going back to about 2019.
There's been sort of a stabilization. So after
a decade, two decade plus, you know,
fairly steep decline, it's faster decline than in
(03:23):
previous decades in the twentieth century. The
church has now been hovering, or Christianity in The US has been hovering in
the, like, the lower 60% range, 60 to
64% of people identifying as Christians.
Now we'll get more into the bad news of of what that
percentage has looked like in the past, but so the I guess that's kind of
(03:45):
the headline right there, is that it was kind of steep on
the decline for the last five years or so. It kinda
hasn't continued on that trend line. So, yeah. So I guess
that that is our celebratory headline is the slowdown in church
decline. It's something. You know? I think
every turnaround starts with a leveling off. So
(04:08):
if you wanna think of it that way, that's good.
I think, anecdotally,
we use the arda, t h e a
r d a, dot com. And that's the
Association of Religious Data Archives, I think, is what ARDA stands
(04:28):
for. You can go you can go yourself, listener, and
go to the arda.com and do some research
on your local, area and get
some information on religious engagement in
your ZIP code or in your county. And anecdotal I
mean, they just updated this recently, A.J.. I wanna say within the
(04:50):
last twelve or eighteen months with
2020 data. So that's the newest data. It's
just updated with the census. So, you know, you you you get it in
2010, and we got it in 2020. We won't get another one till 2030.
But the 2020 numbers on a lot of places
where I have looked and done run reports for churches that I've worked
(05:13):
with, shockingly, you know, I always told churches
prior to 2020, hey. I bet when we get these numbers for 2020, they're
gonna be worse than they are right now. And I guess in some places,
that's true, but in a lot of places, it's not. A lot of places, the
numbers are relatively close, 2020 to
2010, maybe even some slight improvement or just
(05:35):
very marginal small declines. And so that's anecdotal because I I
have not gone through and looked at every county in The United States. But,
those are real numbers. It's not just like,
you know, a survey like like Pew is doing.
These are actual raw data numbers that we're getting
(05:55):
at the county level. And there does this seems to bear
out that idea that maybe there is a a leveling
off, not necessarily a growth, but a leveling off
of of, church engagement, which is something. Yeah. It is. I mean, for
sure. Yeah. So, you know, there there's various
reasons for that, you know, it
(06:18):
but it largely breaks down into I mean, the decline in in the first place,
and we'll get more into the bad news here in a moment, is generational.
So, you know, there's and most of you know that, there's an old our
oldest generation are more inclined into the church,
and our younger generations are less inclined into the church. And so we have
a population shift happening as, you know,
(06:40):
our current oldest generation begins to go see Jesus
in person, and the younger generation is not
necessarily filling that that void, at the
same population rates. Yeah. That's that's primarily
it. And I guess some other to frame this up as well,
that we're saying, you know, Christianity is around in the low sixties,
(07:03):
62 ish percent or so right now.
40% of that is, Protestant identification,
about 20% Catholic, and then kind of
everybody else, fits into that last
20%. I don't think anybody has, any
other group had Two or 3%. Forty
(07:25):
% plus 19%, fifty nine %, and we're at
62% total. So there's the 3% is gonna be less
mainstream versions of Christianity. Yeah. Yeah.
And then non believers. Yeah. Right. Take Oh,
you mean the remaining 40% of people.
Yeah. Yeah. There's, yeah, there's there's atheists in
(07:48):
there, agnostics, non religious people, and and then all the
other every other religion. Yeah. Exactly. Yep.
So, yeah, in The US, Protestants, are the are the
majority religious group. And, I think, technically,
a plurality. Right? You're 40%, you're not a majority. But if you're
(08:09):
the largest group, you're a plurality. Is that correct? Yeah. I guess
I was saying Not to be ticky tacky. The majority of those
counted within this group of
religious people. Oh, okay.
Out of a % of people who claim to be religious,
Protestants are the majority. Okay. Alright. Fair
(08:31):
enough. Alright. Fair enough. This is why we're not in the research business.
I think we're just talking about out of The US population. No. No. No. No.
No. Yeah. Protestants still are the largest
religious group or irreligious group,
but they're a plurality. They're not they're not a majority. Yeah.
(08:52):
Okay. So so there's the good news. We've got a perhaps a plot What I
tell you before you hey. Before you move on from the good news You got
another good piece of good news? Well, I mean, I think because this sets up
for our last piece, like, why like, there's still other good news. So even if
you're we look at the top line number still, you know, it's
62% or identify as Christians, forty
(09:14):
percent identify as Protestant, and then that has
largely stabilized. That's good news. But
beyond that, 86% of Americans believe in
a soul. So there's only 14% of people who are
like, no. I'm pretty sure we're just we're just dirt and dust, and, you
know, when we die, we're nothing. Like, that that's pretty
(09:36):
good. 83% believe in
a god of some kind, like, that there's some power
bigger than themselves. So that's that's a that's a lot.
And 70% believe that there is some sort of an
afterlife, that that this this world isn't all that there is, that there's
(09:56):
something else past us. I mean, to me, those are very
encouraging numbers. Like, we can do something with that. You know,
maybe when you encounter someone, you can assume
that three out of every 10 people you meet are actively
attending a church on a regular basis at best.
That's not good news, but seven out of 10 of
(10:20):
people that you meet have some sort of sense that
there is something more than this life. So there's
a huge opportunity there. Most people are they're not gonna be shut
off to talking about spiritual things. There's an
openness to the gospel that's there. To me,
that's good news. Like, that's I think that's pretty good news. It's
(10:42):
it should be encouraging. Yeah. I mean, because I think so often,
especially those that work in the church, you know, you can just kinda get beat
down, feeling like you're not making progress. Things are you
know, may even feel hopeless. And so I think, yeah,
getting getting some of these numbers sometimes can can
remind us that, oh, there is opportunity out
(11:05):
there. Yeah. Yeah. Not only that, but, I mean, I think you you turn on
the TV or, you know, scroll on
social media. And I think that those those voices
that say, hey. All there is
this materialistic perspective is
so loud in the culture and in,
(11:29):
you know, and in media, it it makes it seem like
that's a majority perspective when in fact,
materialism is not the majority perspective. It's a minority
perspective. And so we think we have to be combating a
materialistic and by that, I mean,
a materialist view of of cosmology, that all there is is
(11:53):
what we can see and what we can measure. That is not the majority position.
It's a minority position. Most people think that there's more to this life
and more to existence and more to reality than what you can see with your
eyes and what you can measure, you know, with a microscope
or something. So that's good news. Like, we
we maybe need to just take a step back and think that's not the argument
(12:15):
we need to be making. Like, the argument we need to be making is
about the truth of Jesus Christ and, you know, you know what I'm saying? Like,
our starting position with with someone who's outside the
faith doesn't need to be convincing them that there's something more,
you know, that they have a soul. Like, that their odds are they
already think that. So we don't need to start there. The the
(12:38):
harvest is plentiful. Right? Yeah. Yeah. That's right. Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Alright. A little bit of bad news before we talk
about, what it means to us and what to do about it.
Yeah. I mean, the previous decline that we were under was
relatively steep. So we had 78%
identified. Remember, we're now we're low sixties. We had 78%
(13:00):
identifying as Christian in 02/2007.
Is that right? Yeah. Then we fell to
about seventy one percent seven years later in
2014. And now here we are ten years later, a full
10% down again. So, well,
now actually, so let me rephrase that because, really, the stabilization
(13:22):
started around 2019. So we dropped about
10% again in maybe only five years or so before,
you know, riding this plus or minus 2%,
stabilization. That's a fair point. It was a it was a really steep drop, say,
like, during the when when did you say the
stabilization started? About 2019? Twenty '19. Yeah.
(13:45):
Yeah. So so think from
the from the Obama presidency through
Trump's first term,
it was it was a cliff. And then and things
have more or less stabilized since then. Just to give like, I think when we
hear these dates, we we're, like, losing context of society
(14:09):
history time. Just Just go Yeah. Okay. We're not drawing a political correlation to the
numbers. No. No. No. No. No. I'm just trying to, like, think think about how
short of a time frame that is, you know, depending on how old you are.
That's that's the that's a blink. You know? Like, okay. Well, I feel like
Bush was just president five seconds ago. You know? So from
from the end of his presidency, really, through
(14:31):
the, you know, the end of twenty nineteen, we lost
16% of of of the of the stakes. But in
the time since, it stabilized, so that's good news. We didn't continue that steep
cliff. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. It's not a political point. I just think it's helpful
to kinda see those markers and go, alright. Get a our our
awareness of time scale here. Yeah. Right. So,
(14:52):
the religious nones, those not identifying, with
religion have plateaued at about 29%,
but that's higher than 20 2,007, where that was a
16% group of people. So,
yeah. I mean, the bad news is, though we're stable
(15:12):
right now I mean, just kind of long story short, though we're
seemingly stable right now, we've lost a huge
chunk of people identifying with Jesus in the
last twenty five years, twenty years. Yeah. Well, I think that's a good
point to to bring up, going back to how we're not,
data scientists, but here, but if if
(15:34):
Protestants are the largest religious group in The United States at
40%, I, am just looking
doing some quick maths in my head here. That would mean that the
second largest religious group in The United States are
are the religious nones. So, the
n o n e s, not n u n. So at
(15:56):
29. So the second largest religious group are people who
are not religious. Now there's a lot of types of people who fit. That
doesn't mean those not all of those people are atheists.
There's people who are agnostic, or they are people
who they just don't they don't identify with
anything in particular. So, again, going back to
(16:18):
that the good news number, included in that group are a lot of
people who believe that there's something, but they just don't
know what that thing is. So but that's a big
number, A.J.. Twenty nine percent of almost a third
of people that you encounter, in your day to day life
don't identify as anything at all. Yeah. Right. So these
(16:41):
young adults, are split basically fifty
fifty. Like, half of them less slightly less than
half identify as Christian and slightly less than half
identify, as unaffiliated. So
now you compare that to Say that one more time? Less than For me
because I'm stupid. Yeah. Well, yeah, less than 50%
(17:03):
of young adults identify as Christian. That number is, I think,
46. And we've also got
43% that do not are religiously unaffiliated.
So Okay. Yeah. So about the same. It's like about It's
about the same, and neither one is over 50%. You know? They're both And I'm
guessing the remainder is something other than Christian. Like Yeah.
(17:25):
I'm not sure what the Muslim or Buddhist or something. Yeah. So,
yeah, so here we go. 46% of young adults identifying as
Christian compared to 8080%
of our oldest adults. So
huge delta between our oldest generation and
our younger youngest adult generation,
(17:47):
identifying as Christians. So, you know, it's somewhere
I don't, you know, I don't know what that looks like for the various other,
demographic age groups. You know, we, Gen Xers,
you, Millennials, we're kinda showing the end the
two ends here, and I'm not sure what's happening in the middle right now,
(18:09):
but, likely, it's just kinda following the trend
line down. Yeah. That's a good
point. And I I think one of the scarier
aspects of this or that's
implied is that our,
(18:30):
or the decline may just be on pause, you know, as
that that oldest generation continues to
pass pass away. If we don't get that number
up of young people, then that
that decline. We've all we've done is stop the bleeding. Like, we we
aren't continuing to lose at a rapid pace.
(18:52):
I do think there was some information here. I don't not sure if this has
made it into our our kinda quick notes, A.J., but I feel like I
noticed somewhere in this study from Pew
that, the Gen z kids
are not more
(19:13):
irreligious than millennials, if that makes Okay. Does that make
sense? But less practicing
must be the case. I I don't
I'm not sure that that's true. I'm not sure. But they're
no. I'm pretty sure that the rates of I I
(19:33):
found this was somewhere in in in p in the
research, but I believe that the numbers were pretty
close between Gen z and millennials. Meaning
that while if you look generationally, there are
declines from generation to generation that that also seems
to have leveled off. So, when you look at
(19:55):
when you look at millennials and you look at Gen z,
it's even. It isn't like there's a further decline from millennials
to Gen z. It's it's that's a straight line,
which is a good sign that you're going, alright. Well, at least the
the the youngest generation is not even
more irreligious than than the millennial group. It's they're about
(20:17):
the same level, which is Okay.
Something good. Yeah. There is, some
additional data in here that does support,
the increasing secularization of those that are
that are, as what they call it, religious switching.
So this is kind of an alarming number, though. Six we have
(20:40):
six people leaving Christianity for every one
that's coming in as a new convert. So,
that that kinda brings it home right there, I think. You know? Especially, you
can internalize this with your own anecdotal or hard data that you
see in your church. You know? I mean, how many how many baptisms
(21:01):
are you seeing in your church or, you know, or know of,
people that are coming into a relationship with Jesus
that you're able to, you know, hear about or track count?
Because there's, I guess, that could be a depressing stat right there. Like,
wow. We won one, which is a huge celebration on Earth and in
(21:21):
heaven, and then there's six others
that have walked away from the faith. Yeah.
So Yeah. It's sad. I I think, you know,
your your religious, your your theological perspective may vary
on is there such a thing as a former Christian? Yeah. Right.
Yeah. But at least their identification with
(21:45):
with with Christianity. And
the the data also says that
even for people who are associated with Christianity or call
themselves Christian, their faith is shakier. So,
fewer Christians today say they believe in God with absolute certainty
compared to previous generations. So people get a little get a little
(22:08):
nervous. They get a little antsy. They they're not quite so sure.
And so there's work to be done there as well in in discipleship and
helping people to learn the truth and know the truth and,
to to stand firm on the word of God and in the person of
Jesus and the life his life, death, and resurrection. So,
there's work to be done in discipleship even within our churches with people who are
(22:31):
connected, so that we can prevent that falling away, that
happens from people who, you know, as Jesus says, those are
seed on the rocky ground, you know, or seed that falls
into into the the thorny ground. You know, you don't want people
to have not have that lasting
roots or to get choked out by by the worries of the world.
(22:54):
So okay. So we've covered some good news. Things are at least
plateaued. I don't think we could say they're turning around, but they
have leveled off. That's good news. Some bad
news. Most of the majority of the Christians are still old folks.
And when they pass away, we're probably gonna see the data reflect
that. So what does this mean
(23:16):
for the listening public? What do they need to do?
Well, I think you first you first need to
internalize this as opportunity. Mhmm.
There is like, I well, I said it a minute ago. The the harvest
is plentiful. I mean, the it the world still
needs Jesus, and you're still in a position to
(23:39):
affect that change. Now is not the time
for us to relax, and to think, oh, we're
doing okay. We can take a little break. The Bible
speaks of rest. God rested. I don't think, we're
ever on vacation from the Great Commission. And so,
the church needs to continue to be on offense.
(24:02):
And, in making contact with these with these folks,
especially those that are most inclined
to to the truth that we have to offer, to the life that we have
to offer through Jesus. So, the yeah. There's
some strategy that needs to be employed in the church. We can get more into
those details. Scott, I'll let you, have have
(24:23):
a word in here on, what does this mean for the church? I
mean, we we talk about this relentlessly on the podcast, and so I know
some of you are gonna go, wow. They're saying the same thing again.
But I I I can't emphasize this enough.
The fundamental things are fundamental. You know, the
doing the the fundamental things well
(24:46):
is still the best way to play the game.
So and I you know I love football, A.J., and I know you don't care.
But I'm telling you, it's the teams that win
are are okay. Did you watch the Super
Bowl this year? Did you watch the Super Bowl? Okay. I I I thought
(25:07):
it was interesting because, you know, the Chiefs lost, and they lost
badly to the to the Eagles.
And, there are lots of reasons, I think, why they lost, but,
my least and I and I don't like the Eagle. I'm a Cowboys fan through
and through, and so watching I mean, I was kind of
rooting for no one in that game. But watching the
(25:30):
Eagles win is especially painful. One of the things I hate that they do have
you ever heard them do this, they do this the tush push, the,
the brotherly shove. Have you heard of this? No. Not familiar.
So what they do is they they get their quarterback lined up under
center, and this is when they have, like, half a yard to go or a
yard to go. And they
(25:52):
they give him they hike him the ball, and then the whole team essentially
just pushes him forward a
yard. And no one can stop the thing. No. No. There
isn't a team in the NFL that
has figured out how to stop the brotherly shove.
And it is just, and I it just pains me. And other teams have
(26:16):
tried to duplicate it, and they can't. Like, no one can do this the
way that they can, and it pains me as a Cowboys fan.
But the reason why it's so successful, I think,
and I'm not an expert, and someone who is, like, a football expert is
probably gonna criticize me for saying this, but it's just a
masterful use of
(26:38):
blocking and angling. And, like, it's taking all the fundamental
things about football, distilling them into their finest form,
especially as it relates to the run game, and then and then, like,
condensing it into this shot of of
a play that that works a % of the time
virtually. And here's my point.
(27:00):
Purchase think. We we gotta come up with some
angle. We gotta come up with some trick. We gotta come up with some marketing
ploy. We gotta come up with some new ministry. We gotta come up with
something extravagant and flashy and neat,
and I'm just telling you that's not true.
You have to do the fundamental things really,
(27:23):
really well. Are we discipling our people towards
Jesus? Are we teaching people to know and
understand the scripture? Not do you think you're doing that. Are you actually
doing that? Are we teaching people to pray? And one
of the fundamental things is, are we getting outside the four walls of our
church and transforming our city? If you're
(27:45):
just wholly huddling and you never actually line up on the line
and and go for it and do the bro brotherly shove your
way across the line of scrimmage and gain
some yards, and if you're never doing that, you're just huddling
and you're talking about the plays we're gonna run and the things we're gonna do,
it'll never happen. You gotta line up, and you gotta brotherly shove your
(28:07):
way forward. And, that's what
this means. But the good news, I think with this, A.J.,
is that the opportunity is there. I think there are
some churches that they continue to huddle because they think it doesn't
matter. They think there's nothing we can do, the
culture doesn't wanna hear it. And the data doesn't tell us that. The data
(28:29):
tells us that the people wanna hear, they want to hear the truth,
but they wanna see you live the truth. And so we gotta we gotta do
that. So that's that's what I think this means. Yeah. Yeah. Well, just
last week on the podcast, we talked about, the revitalization through
outreach and, in the church getting outside the walls.
Let me let me I don't know. I feel like I'm might need to point
(28:52):
out the obvious here. But if you're listening to us, you're you're you know, you've
clicked the link in this week's article and you're reading over the Pew Research,
I feel like some people can look at this and
and separate ourselves from it. Like, this is data
about the rest of the church.
(29:12):
Brother, sister, if you count yourself as one
with, with the Lord Jesus, this is
us. This is our data. This isn't someone
else's data. Mhmm. Affecting change within
the data is changing your own behavior. This is not hoping other
people will do something differently. This is you needing to do something differently.
(29:36):
You know, I mean, the the old false quote of Einstein that, you know, the
definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different
results, is true. You know? I mean, I don't
think Einstein ever said that, and that's not the true definition of
insanity. But if you want if you want the
data points in this, you know, to be different the next time Pew,
(29:58):
runs these surveys, you have to change something that you're
doing today. We all do. This is
this lays on all our shoulders. This is not a them
problem. This is an Us problem. Mhmm. Yeah. I
couldn't have said it better myself. I think it is
so important for us to own you can't own the
(30:21):
whole problem, but you can own your problem. And and,
recognizing that there's no turnaround without your church turning
around. And and it and it is possible, by the way.
I mean, I think that's the I mean, that's the that's why we why are
we doing this podcast? Why why does our organization exist?
Why did we create the Healthy Churches toolkit? Why do I why do I travel
(30:43):
all across this country? And, Ajay, you travel all around the world, and we got
a team of guides to do this work. Why are we doing all this? If
it's it's not a money grab, because I promise you,
we can show you our bank accounts. There's there's there's not money to be made
in this. Okay? We do this because
it's important and because it works, because your
(31:05):
church really can turn around, because your church really can go a
different way, because your church really can make an impact in your community, because one
healthy church does spread to other churches and they go, look at what they did.
We we can do this too. It's not
it's not deterministic. This data is not deterministic.
(31:26):
The trend has slowed great, but it hasn't reversed,
and it won't, unless you own
the problem in your community, in your church,
and it can change and it can be better. And we'd love to help
you with that, but it starts with
taking a step and going, this could be different. Yeah. That's right.
(31:49):
There is no there is no Christian victimhood in the great commission.
There's no when when conditions are favorable, go and make
disciples. You know, when the trend lines are looking pretty good, like a
generation is open, go make disciples. It's every day all
day. And and it Jesus has
has one one way of doing this. There's not a plan
(32:12):
b. There is this is my church, you know?
And and this is what the church will accomplish. It'll accomplish,
people becoming in right relationship with
God through through his son and his death, burial, and resurrection.
We all need to get get after this and and quit fooling
(32:32):
around. There's work to be done. Time is
ticking. And there are people that that
need to find this this life change and transformation,
in this life in the next. So let's let's get busy.
Let's Yeah. Amen. Amen. Alright. Well, hey.
The show notes for today are are down there in the description, whether you're
(32:55):
watching on YouTube or you're listening on the
podcast platform of your choice. There, the link to the show notes is down
in the description. And, we we we would be remiss if
we didn't encourage you to go and check out healthychurchestoolkit.com.
Get seven days for free of that. And, if you are a church
outside of The United States, you get access to those materials
(33:18):
at no cost. And if you are inside The United States, you should know that
when you purchase a subscription to the Healthy Churches Toolkit, you're supporting a
church around the world that doesn't have the same kind of resources that you do,
and we wanna thank you. Thank you for being a subscriber to that, and
blessing another church while at the same time you're resourcing and equipping
your own church for for health and for growth. So, go to
(33:38):
healthychurchestoolkit.com and get seven days for free, and,
take advantage of all the resources that are in there that really will help you
go on offense as a church. Amen. Let's work together. Let's, let's see
the kingdom of God increase and celebrate when the next,
bit of research comes out with an upward trend line. Go get them. Oh. Looking
forward to it. Alright. Bye.
Christianity in America. Is the decline over? Find out right
now on the Church Revitalization Podcast. Hello, and
welcome to the Church Revitalization Podcast, brought to you by
the Malthus Group team, where each week we tackle important,
actionable topics to help churches thrive. And now
here's your hosts, Scott Ball and A.J. Mathieu.
(00:25):
Welcome to the Church Revitalization Podcast. My name is Scott Ball. I'm joined by
my friend and cohost, A.J. Mathieu.
A.J., we've got some new news. We we
occasionally, do an episode like this where we see something come
across the wire. This is not exactly a breaking news program
where we do, we don't do the news. But I lost the teletype just
(00:47):
now. Hey. You see? Hang on. Hang on. I got it got it right off
the wire. Okay. But I did see
this, article come across the
the airwaves last week. As we're recording it, it was last
week. So there's a little bit of a tell for when we're recording this.
But, I thought this is good. This is a good thing for us to
(01:10):
talk about when there's a big update, I think a big,
data dump on what are we learning about Christianity
is particularly in The US.
It's it's worth us chatting about because this is our bread and butter. This is
our business. This is what we we work in every day is church decline, church
(01:30):
growth, church stabilization, church plateaus. So when we see a big study on this,
we definitely wanna talk about it. Apologies, I guess, to our international
listeners, and there's lots and lots of you. But there, I think, are still some
practical things for us to to glean from this, especially towards the end of today's
episodes. With that, do we wanna just dive into
the data? We're gonna break it down this way. We're gonna we're gonna talk about
(01:53):
the good news from this data. Just a spoiler alert, there's
some bad news, as well, and then we'll kinda wrap up by
talking about what is this what does this mean for your church? What what does
it matter anyway for you? So Okay. So let's do it.
We'll start with the good. Let's start with the less bad news. The good
Less bad news. Is relative. Good is relative. Yeah. Relative to bad,
(02:15):
this is good. And that is that the this relatively
steady decline in the American church
has seemingly come to a bit of a plateau or a slowdown. So
it's kind of flattening out a little bit in recent years. Well, yeah, I mean,
I think that that's actually what caught my attention
at least is that a lot of the headlines from
(02:38):
news organizations were headlines like US
Christianity stabilizing after decades of decline.
I mean, like, this seemed like top
line. Wow. Good news. The work that we're
doing with churches is working, you know, and lots of people, not just us, but
there are a lot of organizations working on this problem.
(03:01):
And so it caught my attention. But, of course, you know,
well, let's just stick with the good news for now. It's it's
Yeah. So I guess it's going back to about 2019.
There's been sort of a stabilization. So after
a decade, two decade plus, you know,
fairly steep decline, it's faster decline than in
(03:23):
previous decades in the twentieth century. The
church has now been hovering, or Christianity in The US has been hovering in
the, like, the lower 60% range, 60 to
64% of people identifying as Christians.
Now we'll get more into the bad news of of what that
percentage has looked like in the past, but so the I guess that's kind of
(03:45):
the headline right there, is that it was kind of steep on
the decline for the last five years or so. It kinda
hasn't continued on that trend line. So, yeah. So I guess
that that is our celebratory headline is the slowdown in church
decline. It's something. You know? I think
every turnaround starts with a leveling off. So
(04:08):
if you wanna think of it that way, that's good.
I think, anecdotally,
we use the arda, t h e a
r d a, dot com. And that's the
Association of Religious Data Archives, I think, is what ARDA stands
(04:28):
for. You can go you can go yourself, listener, and
go to the arda.com and do some research
on your local, area and get
some information on religious engagement in
your ZIP code or in your county. And anecdotal I
mean, they just updated this recently, A.J.. I wanna say within the
(04:50):
last twelve or eighteen months with
2020 data. So that's the newest data. It's
just updated with the census. So, you know, you you you get it in
2010, and we got it in 2020. We won't get another one till 2030.
But the 2020 numbers on a lot of places
where I have looked and done run reports for churches that I've worked
(05:13):
with, shockingly, you know, I always told churches
prior to 2020, hey. I bet when we get these numbers for 2020, they're
gonna be worse than they are right now. And I guess in some places,
that's true, but in a lot of places, it's not. A lot of places, the
numbers are relatively close, 2020 to
2010, maybe even some slight improvement or just
(05:35):
very marginal small declines. And so that's anecdotal because I I
have not gone through and looked at every county in The United States. But,
those are real numbers. It's not just like,
you know, a survey like like Pew is doing.
These are actual raw data numbers that we're getting
(05:55):
at the county level. And there does this seems to bear
out that idea that maybe there is a a leveling
off, not necessarily a growth, but a leveling off
of of, church engagement, which is something. Yeah. It is. I mean, for
sure. Yeah. So, you know, there there's various
reasons for that, you know, it
(06:18):
but it largely breaks down into I mean, the decline in in the first place,
and we'll get more into the bad news here in a moment, is generational.
So, you know, there's and most of you know that, there's an old our
oldest generation are more inclined into the church,
and our younger generations are less inclined into the church. And so we have
a population shift happening as, you know,
(06:40):
our current oldest generation begins to go see Jesus
in person, and the younger generation is not
necessarily filling that that void, at the
same population rates. Yeah. That's that's primarily
it. And I guess some other to frame this up as well,
that we're saying, you know, Christianity is around in the low sixties,
(07:03):
62 ish percent or so right now.
40% of that is, Protestant identification,
about 20% Catholic, and then kind of
everybody else, fits into that last
20%. I don't think anybody has, any
other group had Two or 3%. Forty
(07:25):
% plus 19%, fifty nine %, and we're at
62% total. So there's the 3% is gonna be less
mainstream versions of Christianity. Yeah. Yeah.
And then non believers. Yeah. Right. Take Oh,
you mean the remaining 40% of people.
Yeah. Yeah. There's, yeah, there's there's atheists in
(07:48):
there, agnostics, non religious people, and and then all the
other every other religion. Yeah. Exactly. Yep.
So, yeah, in The US, Protestants, are the are the
majority religious group. And, I think, technically,
a plurality. Right? You're 40%, you're not a majority. But if you're
(08:09):
the largest group, you're a plurality. Is that correct? Yeah. I guess
I was saying Not to be ticky tacky. The majority of those
counted within this group of
religious people. Oh, okay.
Out of a % of people who claim to be religious,
Protestants are the majority. Okay. Alright. Fair
(08:31):
enough. Alright. Fair enough. This is why we're not in the research business.
I think we're just talking about out of The US population. No. No. No. No.
No. Yeah. Protestants still are the largest
religious group or irreligious group,
but they're a plurality. They're not they're not a majority. Yeah.
(08:52):
Okay. So so there's the good news. We've got a perhaps a plot What I
tell you before you hey. Before you move on from the good news You got
another good piece of good news? Well, I mean, I think because this sets up
for our last piece, like, why like, there's still other good news. So even if
you're we look at the top line number still, you know, it's
62% or identify as Christians, forty
(09:14):
percent identify as Protestant, and then that has
largely stabilized. That's good news. But
beyond that, 86% of Americans believe in
a soul. So there's only 14% of people who are
like, no. I'm pretty sure we're just we're just dirt and dust, and, you
know, when we die, we're nothing. Like, that that's pretty
(09:36):
good. 83% believe in
a god of some kind, like, that there's some power
bigger than themselves. So that's that's a that's a lot.
And 70% believe that there is some sort of an
afterlife, that that this this world isn't all that there is, that there's
(09:56):
something else past us. I mean, to me, those are very
encouraging numbers. Like, we can do something with that. You know,
maybe when you encounter someone, you can assume
that three out of every 10 people you meet are actively
attending a church on a regular basis at best.
That's not good news, but seven out of 10 of
(10:20):
people that you meet have some sort of sense that
there is something more than this life. So there's
a huge opportunity there. Most people are they're not gonna be shut
off to talking about spiritual things. There's an
openness to the gospel that's there. To me,
that's good news. Like, that's I think that's pretty good news. It's
(10:42):
it should be encouraging. Yeah. I mean, because I think so often,
especially those that work in the church, you know, you can just kinda get beat
down, feeling like you're not making progress. Things are you
know, may even feel hopeless. And so I think, yeah,
getting getting some of these numbers sometimes can can
remind us that, oh, there is opportunity out
(11:05):
there. Yeah. Yeah. Not only that, but, I mean, I think you you turn on
the TV or, you know, scroll on
social media. And I think that those those voices
that say, hey. All there is
this materialistic perspective is
so loud in the culture and in,
(11:29):
you know, and in media, it it makes it seem like
that's a majority perspective when in fact,
materialism is not the majority perspective. It's a minority
perspective. And so we think we have to be combating a
materialistic and by that, I mean,
a materialist view of of cosmology, that all there is is
(11:53):
what we can see and what we can measure. That is not the majority position.
It's a minority position. Most people think that there's more to this life
and more to existence and more to reality than what you can see with your
eyes and what you can measure, you know, with a microscope
or something. So that's good news. Like, we
we maybe need to just take a step back and think that's not the argument
(12:15):
we need to be making. Like, the argument we need to be making is
about the truth of Jesus Christ and, you know, you know what I'm saying? Like,
our starting position with with someone who's outside the
faith doesn't need to be convincing them that there's something more,
you know, that they have a soul. Like, that their odds are they
already think that. So we don't need to start there. The the
(12:38):
harvest is plentiful. Right? Yeah. Yeah. That's right. Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. Alright. A little bit of bad news before we talk
about, what it means to us and what to do about it.
Yeah. I mean, the previous decline that we were under was
relatively steep. So we had 78%
identified. Remember, we're now we're low sixties. We had 78%
(13:00):
identifying as Christian in 02/2007.
Is that right? Yeah. Then we fell to
about seventy one percent seven years later in
2014. And now here we are ten years later, a full
10% down again. So, well,
now actually, so let me rephrase that because, really, the stabilization
(13:22):
started around 2019. So we dropped about
10% again in maybe only five years or so before,
you know, riding this plus or minus 2%,
stabilization. That's a fair point. It was a it was a really steep drop, say,
like, during the when when did you say the
stabilization started? About 2019? Twenty '19. Yeah.
(13:45):
Yeah. So so think from
the from the Obama presidency through
Trump's first term,
it was it was a cliff. And then and things
have more or less stabilized since then. Just to give like, I think when we
hear these dates, we we're, like, losing context of society
(14:09):
history time. Just Just go Yeah. Okay. We're not drawing a political correlation to the
numbers. No. No. No. No. No. I'm just trying to, like, think think about how
short of a time frame that is, you know, depending on how old you are.
That's that's the that's a blink. You know? Like, okay. Well, I feel like
Bush was just president five seconds ago. You know? So from
from the end of his presidency, really, through
(14:31):
the, you know, the end of twenty nineteen, we lost
16% of of of the of the stakes. But in
the time since, it stabilized, so that's good news. We didn't continue that steep
cliff. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. It's not a political point. I just think it's helpful
to kinda see those markers and go, alright. Get a our our
awareness of time scale here. Yeah. Right. So,
(14:52):
the religious nones, those not identifying, with
religion have plateaued at about 29%,
but that's higher than 20 2,007, where that was a
16% group of people. So,
yeah. I mean, the bad news is, though we're stable
(15:12):
right now I mean, just kind of long story short, though we're
seemingly stable right now, we've lost a huge
chunk of people identifying with Jesus in the
last twenty five years, twenty years. Yeah. Well, I think that's a good
point to to bring up, going back to how we're not,
data scientists, but here, but if if
(15:34):
Protestants are the largest religious group in The United States at
40%, I, am just looking
doing some quick maths in my head here. That would mean that the
second largest religious group in The United States are
are the religious nones. So, the
n o n e s, not n u n. So at
(15:56):
29. So the second largest religious group are people who
are not religious. Now there's a lot of types of people who fit. That
doesn't mean those not all of those people are atheists.
There's people who are agnostic, or they are people
who they just don't they don't identify with
anything in particular. So, again, going back to
(16:18):
that the good news number, included in that group are a lot of
people who believe that there's something, but they just don't
know what that thing is. So but that's a big
number, A.J.. Twenty nine percent of almost a third
of people that you encounter, in your day to day life
don't identify as anything at all. Yeah. Right. So these
(16:41):
young adults, are split basically fifty
fifty. Like, half of them less slightly less than
half identify as Christian and slightly less than half
identify, as unaffiliated. So
now you compare that to Say that one more time? Less than For me
because I'm stupid. Yeah. Well, yeah, less than 50%
(17:03):
of young adults identify as Christian. That number is, I think,
46. And we've also got
43% that do not are religiously unaffiliated.
So Okay. Yeah. So about the same. It's like about It's
about the same, and neither one is over 50%. You know? They're both And I'm
guessing the remainder is something other than Christian. Like Yeah.
(17:25):
I'm not sure what the Muslim or Buddhist or something. Yeah. So,
yeah, so here we go. 46% of young adults identifying as
Christian compared to 8080%
of our oldest adults. So
huge delta between our oldest generation and
our younger youngest adult generation,
(17:47):
identifying as Christians. So, you know, it's somewhere
I don't, you know, I don't know what that looks like for the various other,
demographic age groups. You know, we, Gen Xers,
you, Millennials, we're kinda showing the end the
two ends here, and I'm not sure what's happening in the middle right now,
(18:09):
but, likely, it's just kinda following the trend
line down. Yeah. That's a good
point. And I I think one of the scarier
aspects of this or that's
implied is that our,
(18:30):
or the decline may just be on pause, you know, as
that that oldest generation continues to
pass pass away. If we don't get that number
up of young people, then that
that decline. We've all we've done is stop the bleeding. Like, we we
aren't continuing to lose at a rapid pace.
(18:52):
I do think there was some information here. I don't not sure if this has
made it into our our kinda quick notes, A.J., but I feel like I
noticed somewhere in this study from Pew
that, the Gen z kids
are not more
(19:13):
irreligious than millennials, if that makes Okay. Does that make
sense? But less practicing
must be the case. I I don't
I'm not sure that that's true. I'm not sure. But they're
no. I'm pretty sure that the rates of I I
(19:33):
found this was somewhere in in in p in the
research, but I believe that the numbers were pretty
close between Gen z and millennials. Meaning
that while if you look generationally, there are
declines from generation to generation that that also seems
to have leveled off. So, when you look at
(19:55):
when you look at millennials and you look at Gen z,
it's even. It isn't like there's a further decline from millennials
to Gen z. It's it's that's a straight line,
which is a good sign that you're going, alright. Well, at least the
the the youngest generation is not even
more irreligious than than the millennial group. It's they're about
(20:17):
the same level, which is Okay.
Something good. Yeah. There is, some
additional data in here that does support,
the increasing secularization of those that are
that are, as what they call it, religious switching.
So this is kind of an alarming number, though. Six we have
(20:40):
six people leaving Christianity for every one
that's coming in as a new convert. So,
that that kinda brings it home right there, I think. You know? Especially, you
can internalize this with your own anecdotal or hard data that you
see in your church. You know? I mean, how many how many baptisms
(21:01):
are you seeing in your church or, you know, or know of,
people that are coming into a relationship with Jesus
that you're able to, you know, hear about or track count?
Because there's, I guess, that could be a depressing stat right there. Like,
wow. We won one, which is a huge celebration on Earth and in
(21:21):
heaven, and then there's six others
that have walked away from the faith. Yeah.
So Yeah. It's sad. I I think, you know,
your your religious, your your theological perspective may vary
on is there such a thing as a former Christian? Yeah. Right.
Yeah. But at least their identification with
(21:45):
with with Christianity. And
the the data also says that
even for people who are associated with Christianity or call
themselves Christian, their faith is shakier. So,
fewer Christians today say they believe in God with absolute certainty
compared to previous generations. So people get a little get a little
(22:08):
nervous. They get a little antsy. They they're not quite so sure.
And so there's work to be done there as well in in discipleship and
helping people to learn the truth and know the truth and,
to to stand firm on the word of God and in the person of
Jesus and the life his life, death, and resurrection. So,
there's work to be done in discipleship even within our churches with people who are
(22:31):
connected, so that we can prevent that falling away, that
happens from people who, you know, as Jesus says, those are
seed on the rocky ground, you know, or seed that falls
into into the the thorny ground. You know, you don't want people
to have not have that lasting
roots or to get choked out by by the worries of the world.
(22:54):
So okay. So we've covered some good news. Things are at least
plateaued. I don't think we could say they're turning around, but they
have leveled off. That's good news. Some bad
news. Most of the majority of the Christians are still old folks.
And when they pass away, we're probably gonna see the data reflect
that. So what does this mean
(23:16):
for the listening public? What do they need to do?
Well, I think you first you first need to
internalize this as opportunity. Mhmm.
There is like, I well, I said it a minute ago. The the harvest
is plentiful. I mean, the it the world still
needs Jesus, and you're still in a position to
(23:39):
affect that change. Now is not the time
for us to relax, and to think, oh, we're
doing okay. We can take a little break. The Bible
speaks of rest. God rested. I don't think, we're
ever on vacation from the Great Commission. And so,
the church needs to continue to be on offense.
(24:02):
And, in making contact with these with these folks,
especially those that are most inclined
to to the truth that we have to offer, to the life that we have
to offer through Jesus. So, the yeah. There's
some strategy that needs to be employed in the church. We can get more into
those details. Scott, I'll let you, have have
(24:23):
a word in here on, what does this mean for the church? I
mean, we we talk about this relentlessly on the podcast, and so I know
some of you are gonna go, wow. They're saying the same thing again.
But I I I can't emphasize this enough.
The fundamental things are fundamental. You know, the
doing the the fundamental things well
(24:46):
is still the best way to play the game.
So and I you know I love football, A.J., and I know you don't care.
But I'm telling you, it's the teams that win
are are okay. Did you watch the Super
Bowl this year? Did you watch the Super Bowl? Okay. I I I thought
(25:07):
it was interesting because, you know, the Chiefs lost, and they lost
badly to the to the Eagles.
And, there are lots of reasons, I think, why they lost, but,
my least and I and I don't like the Eagle. I'm a Cowboys fan through
and through, and so watching I mean, I was kind of
rooting for no one in that game. But watching the
(25:30):
Eagles win is especially painful. One of the things I hate that they do have
you ever heard them do this, they do this the tush push, the,
the brotherly shove. Have you heard of this? No. Not familiar.
So what they do is they they get their quarterback lined up under
center, and this is when they have, like, half a yard to go or a
yard to go. And they
(25:52):
they give him they hike him the ball, and then the whole team essentially
just pushes him forward a
yard. And no one can stop the thing. No. No. There
isn't a team in the NFL that
has figured out how to stop the brotherly shove.
And it is just, and I it just pains me. And other teams have
(26:16):
tried to duplicate it, and they can't. Like, no one can do this the
way that they can, and it pains me as a Cowboys fan.
But the reason why it's so successful, I think,
and I'm not an expert, and someone who is, like, a football expert is
probably gonna criticize me for saying this, but it's just a
masterful use of
(26:38):
blocking and angling. And, like, it's taking all the fundamental
things about football, distilling them into their finest form,
especially as it relates to the run game, and then and then, like,
condensing it into this shot of of
a play that that works a % of the time
virtually. And here's my point.
(27:00):
Purchase think. We we gotta come up with some
angle. We gotta come up with some trick. We gotta come up with some marketing
ploy. We gotta come up with some new ministry. We gotta come up with
something extravagant and flashy and neat,
and I'm just telling you that's not true.
You have to do the fundamental things really,
(27:23):
really well. Are we discipling our people towards
Jesus? Are we teaching people to know and
understand the scripture? Not do you think you're doing that. Are you actually
doing that? Are we teaching people to pray? And one
of the fundamental things is, are we getting outside the four walls of our
church and transforming our city? If you're
(27:45):
just wholly huddling and you never actually line up on the line
and and go for it and do the bro brotherly shove your
way across the line of scrimmage and gain
some yards, and if you're never doing that, you're just huddling
and you're talking about the plays we're gonna run and the things we're gonna do,
it'll never happen. You gotta line up, and you gotta brotherly shove your
(28:07):
way forward. And, that's what
this means. But the good news, I think with this, A.J.,
is that the opportunity is there. I think there are
some churches that they continue to huddle because they think it doesn't
matter. They think there's nothing we can do, the
culture doesn't wanna hear it. And the data doesn't tell us that. The data
(28:29):
tells us that the people wanna hear, they want to hear the truth,
but they wanna see you live the truth. And so we gotta we gotta do
that. So that's that's what I think this means. Yeah. Yeah. Well, just
last week on the podcast, we talked about, the revitalization through
outreach and, in the church getting outside the walls.
Let me let me I don't know. I feel like I'm might need to point
(28:52):
out the obvious here. But if you're listening to us, you're you're you know, you've
clicked the link in this week's article and you're reading over the Pew Research,
I feel like some people can look at this and
and separate ourselves from it. Like, this is data
about the rest of the church.
(29:12):
Brother, sister, if you count yourself as one
with, with the Lord Jesus, this is
us. This is our data. This isn't someone
else's data. Mhmm. Affecting change within
the data is changing your own behavior. This is not hoping other
people will do something differently. This is you needing to do something differently.
(29:36):
You know, I mean, the the old false quote of Einstein that, you know, the
definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different
results, is true. You know? I mean, I don't
think Einstein ever said that, and that's not the true definition of
insanity. But if you want if you want the
data points in this, you know, to be different the next time Pew,
(29:58):
runs these surveys, you have to change something that you're
doing today. We all do. This is
this lays on all our shoulders. This is not a them
problem. This is an Us problem. Mhmm. Yeah. I
couldn't have said it better myself. I think it is
so important for us to own you can't own the
(30:21):
whole problem, but you can own your problem. And and,
recognizing that there's no turnaround without your church turning
around. And and it and it is possible, by the way.
I mean, I think that's the I mean, that's the that's why we why are
we doing this podcast? Why why does our organization exist?
Why did we create the Healthy Churches toolkit? Why do I why do I travel
(30:43):
all across this country? And, Ajay, you travel all around the world, and we got
a team of guides to do this work. Why are we doing all this? If
it's it's not a money grab, because I promise you,
we can show you our bank accounts. There's there's there's not money to be made
in this. Okay? We do this because
it's important and because it works, because your
(31:05):
church really can turn around, because your church really can go a
different way, because your church really can make an impact in your community, because one
healthy church does spread to other churches and they go, look at what they did.
We we can do this too. It's not
it's not deterministic. This data is not deterministic.
(31:26):
The trend has slowed great, but it hasn't reversed,
and it won't, unless you own
the problem in your community, in your church,
and it can change and it can be better. And we'd love to help
you with that, but it starts with
taking a step and going, this could be different. Yeah. That's right.
(31:49):
There is no there is no Christian victimhood in the great commission.
There's no when when conditions are favorable, go and make
disciples. You know, when the trend lines are looking pretty good, like a
generation is open, go make disciples. It's every day all
day. And and it Jesus has
has one one way of doing this. There's not a plan
(32:12):
b. There is this is my church, you know?
And and this is what the church will accomplish. It'll accomplish,
people becoming in right relationship with
God through through his son and his death, burial, and resurrection.
We all need to get get after this and and quit fooling
(32:32):
around. There's work to be done. Time is
ticking. And there are people that that
need to find this this life change and transformation,
in this life in the next. So let's let's get busy.
Let's Yeah. Amen. Amen. Alright. Well, hey.
The show notes for today are are down there in the description, whether you're
(32:55):
watching on YouTube or you're listening on the
podcast platform of your choice. There, the link to the show notes is down
in the description. And, we we we would be remiss if
we didn't encourage you to go and check out healthychurchestoolkit.com.
Get seven days for free of that. And, if you are a church
outside of The United States, you get access to those materials
(33:18):
at no cost. And if you are inside The United States, you should know that
when you purchase a subscription to the Healthy Churches Toolkit, you're supporting a
church around the world that doesn't have the same kind of resources that you do,
and we wanna thank you. Thank you for being a subscriber to that, and
blessing another church while at the same time you're resourcing and equipping
your own church for for health and for growth. So, go to
(33:38):
healthychurchestoolkit.com and get seven days for free, and,
take advantage of all the resources that are in there that really will help you
go on offense as a church. Amen. Let's work together. Let's, let's see
the kingdom of God increase and celebrate when the next,
bit of research comes out with an upward trend line. Go get them. Oh. Looking
forward to it. Alright. Bye.
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