December 16, 2024 • 51 mins
- Guest Host: Greg Magadini, Amberdata
On this episode we discuss:
- The crypto markets over the past week
- Bitcoin and Ether volatility, skew, major options positioning
- Whether it is time for a strategic bitcoin reserve
- What the heck is going on with MSTU
- Altcoins and much more...
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
CRYPTO_12-16-24_-_FINAL (00:00):
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(02:23):
Now it's time to dive into the exploding world of crypto derivatives.
It's time for the Crypto Rundown.
All right, everybody.
That music means we are back once again.
It is Monday.
It is post option block.
(02:44):
It means it's time once again to roll out a little bit of the old Crypto Rundown, see
what's exploding.
In some cases, quite literally out there in the world of all things crypto.
My name, of course, Mark Longo from the optionsinsider.com, as well as from the network upon which all
of you folks have been binging.
Couple of things to remind you of at the top of the show.
(03:06):
First off, if you're not listening to the full network, including shows like Options
Bootcamp, you are missing out.
It will really get a lot of you out there who are, let's say, crypto native, maybe up
to speed in all things options and derivatives.
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The optionsinsider.com/pro is the place to go.
As we see who's joining us on the old Crypto Rundown today.
I'm pleased to welcome back on our old pal.
There's just so much going on.
He had to come back.
Mr. Greg Magadini, the director of derivatives over there at Amberdana.
Mr. Greg, welcome back to the show, sir.
(03:50):
Thank you so much, Mark.
Yeah, definitely a ton going on.
So very excited to be back on the show and talk about it.
Hey, keep picking these boring weeks to come on the show.
You know, we got to search for things to talk about, Greg.
It's a heavy lift, but we'll see what we can do as we keep on rolling into the Bitcoin breakdown.
It's time to explore the latest trending activity, trends and developments across
(04:11):
the world's leading crypto market.
It's time for the Bitcoin breakdown.
All right, everybody.
Welcome to the Bitcoin breakdown.
The portion of the show where we do does that.
We break down all the action in the world's leading digital asset.
Yep.
We're talking about the big dog, which is Bitcoin looking a lot bigger,
(04:33):
historically bigger now since our last show.
We were at 97 to 55 on our show last week coming into this show,
rock ending north of 100 K.
Then we didn't stop there.
Hit a new high right around 105.
Then said, you know what?
Why stop there?
Let's hit 106, even breaking past 107 briefly earlier this morning.
So a new all time highs, a plenty out there as we were kicking off the show back down to a paltry,
(04:58):
a meager 106 and 43 listeners. So just massive rallies out there on the Bitcoin front.
We have to start there, Mr. Greg, a lot going on.
What is catching your eye out there in this just wild rally in Bitcoin?
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of narratives going on about sort of the fundamental picture of Bitcoin.
(05:23):
So obviously, we have this trend of corporate treasuries adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
I think Microsoft just voted on potentially doing that.
It got denied.
But one of the big news events that we've gotten in the past few days is that
now Bitcoin is going to be treated like a regular mark to market asset,
as opposed to a long term asset that gets depreciated in accounting terms.
(05:49):
So this will be very interesting because now it's just a liquid asset like anything else.
That's a kind of cash like security like stocks or anything else like that where you can mark to
market. So the thesis goes that more corporations are going to be adding it to their balance sheet.
And then obviously, we're getting more chit chat about strategic Bitcoin reserves from
(06:10):
our government level. We've actually seen even Japan talk about that recently.
And so those are kind of the fundamental backdrops around what's happening in terms
of price action and then in terms of sort of the vol, this move today, which is also closely
associated with micro strategy being added or approved to be added on the NASDAQ 100.
(06:35):
I think those shares start becoming traded together on the 23rd of December.
Well, that's created a narrative to move up Bitcoin, flatten up term structure.
So a few days ago, short term vol was as low as around 35. And now the front end of the term
structure is completely flat. So we're around kind of a 55 to 60 implied vol landscape for Bitcoin
(07:01):
right now. And so obviously, things are moving right now. And I think the options market is
pricing in that this is not a one and done thing. We could keep moving for a little while here.
He brought up one of the hot debates right now, Greg, which is this notion of the strategic Bitcoin
reserve. Sounds cool. Sounds very, very official. Of course, something like we have for petroleum
(07:25):
out there. This is a bit of a contentious issue. Some folks, even Powell coming out saying that's
kind of kind of ludicrous. A lot of people who are not maybe as knee deep into the crypto world saying
why do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Bitcoin will never be a currency. It's threatening
a hundred vol. You can't have a currency that is that volatile. And then you have folks like Trump
(07:45):
coming out there beating that drum on the campaign trail. Some folks said he was maybe just cow town
a bit to the crypto crowd, get a little bit of price support action, saying we're going to buy
a whole bunch of it for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. But Greg, where do you fall on this? Do
you see a necessity for a strategic Bitcoin reserve or is this kind of just Trump speak on the campaign
trail? Yeah, it's a very interesting question because at the end of the day, historically,
(08:12):
gold has been the currency of the people, so to speak. And then we moved on to a fiat system
backed by gold. And then with Bretton Woods, we actually ended the complete gold backing of fiat.
And now we just have paper fiat. And so if we think about the global debt level where we are today,
(08:34):
it's kind of the end of the so-called debt super cycle. And where do we go from here? And is going
back to hard money a good idea? And if we do go back to hard money, at least in part, if not in
full, what does that hard money look like? Do we just always go back to what people call the pet
rock of gold? I like gold. I don't think it's a pet rock. But is gold always the solution? And if
(09:00):
the world is actually going towards digital gold, well, then there's a huge first mover advantage
if we can just print our own fiat and then buy some Bitcoin or some gold with that fiat and be
the first to move into that landscape. There's an argument to be made there. And realistically,
(09:20):
if the world wasn't super in debt the way that we are, maybe that discussion is not as important.
But if we are super in debt, I do think it could be a quote unquote way out or a way to make your
paper currency hard money in some way. And I think Japan is the perfect example. I wouldn't be
(09:42):
surprised that they do it. One, because they're the most in debt, but two, because they have a
society that could pull it off. And I think for us in the US, we could also do it. But I think the
path is maybe not as completely clear, but I think it could make sense. Yeah. Yeah. It's a fascinating
(10:02):
question out there, listeners. Do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve listeners? What are
your thoughts? Might be a fun question of the week for you folks out there. Maybe might be interesting.
A lot of folks are up in arms on both sides of this. Is this kind of just talking up his supporters
there or is there more grist for the mill? Can Bitcoin really, is there, is it a strategic asset
(10:27):
these days? I'm curious, obviously the folks at Microsoft and some other big companies saying,
no, we don't need this on our books right now. So a lot of back and forth on this, which it makes it
interesting. Is there back and forth on the vol and skew side? Let's find out. Remember listeners,
if you want to kick the tires and light the fires for yourselves, only one place to go for all this
data we're talking about here and a whole bunch more. We are literally just scratching the surface
(10:50):
of what is available. It is only a roughly one hour show listeners at the end of the day. You want
to see it all for yourselves. Amber data dot IO, the place to go to kick the tires and light the
fires. Remember that graphical version, the GUI completely free for you folks now. So you have no
excuse if you want to go kick the tires on all this data. If you are even remotely curious,
if you are hashtag crypto curious, you need to be heading over to Amber data dot IO. If you did that,
(11:14):
you could see all this cool data. Like we're going to break down right now. Like what is going on on
the weekly vol front in Bitcoin? And you know, it's been a couple of weeks in a row now. It's been
kind of fascinating to see where if you just ran the weekly vol numbers and you looked at nothing
else in the Bitcoin world, you just looked at this number, you would say, oh, absolutely nothing
happened this week. It was a very quiet week out there because we are almost literally unchanged on
(11:37):
the seven day vol from this time a week ago, last week, 54 and three quarters this week, a whopping
54 and a half. Now, as I say all that, remember, keep all this in the context that we are coming
into what is traditionally the seasonally quiet period for volatility across the board. Everyone
thinks of inequities, but most asset classes tend to be a little quieter from a vol perspective
(11:59):
heading into the holidays for obvious reasons. Not much going up in the market. Folks are away,
have other things on their brain than let's say Bitcoin volatility. So bear that in mind what
we're talking about here, but let's see if if we keep this unchanged theme going throughout the
rest of the vol landscape here. Let's go out a little bit farther. Let's see what's cooking,
let's say 30 days from now, shall we? And more standardized volatility metric on our last show,
(12:22):
we're at 55.2 coming into the other show today, a little bit frothy or a little bit juicier, 57.3.
That's even more interesting when we keep that context in mind that it is that seasonally quiet
period where vol is supposed to be coming in. So a little bit juicier on the 30 day front. If we go
all the way out of whopping six months, listeners, what are the holders up to into the wilds of next
(12:45):
year? Let's find out. Last week on the show, 59.65 was the six month vol. This week up exactly 2.61.65.
So getting a little bit frothier, a little bit juicier farther out on the term structure, which
is also interesting. Mr. Greg, a lot to unpack here on the vol term structure was catching your
eye this week, sir. Yeah, I think the term structure is very interesting. So given all the
(13:11):
bullish narratives and the potential sort of reserve currency status that could really make
Bitcoin jump, and by jump, I mean like literally jump risk where there's no trading in between,
given that aside, like if we look at realized vol for say, IBIT, really the realized vol for the
past, you know, call it 84 days or 189 days rolling window is about a 57. And so if I look
(13:38):
at the term structure, if I look at the leaps or the two year leaps, the vol is really kind of
65 to 70 on the implied side, which is a pretty big premium over the range of realized vol. And
then let's add in the factor that realized vol is high right now because we've just rallied so much
(13:59):
and we've had such a big move. If I go back to say 2023, we had some realized vol periods of 35 in
Bitcoin, and we had a sort of a structural decline in realized volatility. So if I was pretty sure
the risk of approval of Bitcoin reserve status wasn't going to happen, then I would say implied
(14:21):
is definitely a sell here. Not only do I think implied is a premium over realized, but I also
think realized has some mean reversion lower to do. So that's kind of my initial instinct.
Now, obviously, there's a little bit of risk if we get some craziness in terms of global policy of
adding governments, adding Bitcoin at our balance sheet, especially big governments such as the US
(14:45):
or Japan or some European governments or whatever. In that case, you know, Bitcoin can go nuts pretty
fast. So in my mind, the types of structures that are kind of interesting is, you know, maybe
do some structures that end up being sort of delta long, but Vega short for call it
six months to 12 months time period. And then in the four months time period, own some really,
(15:13):
really wingy insurance in terms of some some gamma cover in case something crazy happens.
And so if you get a grind up, that's not the move you want. If you get like a rather grindy,
steep move up, that's not the move you want. But if you get the jump risk,
that is definitely the move you want. And in your short term,
gamma coverage will definitely pay off there. And then if you get something that's like
(15:37):
controlled bullishness and ball comes down, that does very well. So I like that sort of barbell
strategy where I'll take the risk in the fast move up, but winning in the jump up or controlled
grind up situations. Interesting stuff. Speaking of interesting, Mr. Greg, we thought who better to
(16:01):
solve the question of do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve or not than our audience? They
are the ultimate arbiters at the end of the day of all of these contentious issues. Mr. Greg,
so we put it out to them right now, a bit of a flash poll to the audience, if you will, Mr.
Greg. And in the early voting, which way do you think our audience is going, Greg?
Early voting. I said, I think they said yes. You are right. Two thirds exactly. Coming down on yes.
(16:28):
And a third coming down is no, it's only been live for like two minutes. So we'll see how it shakes
out as the week unfolds, Mr. Greg. But right now in the early voting, Greg and all of his cronies
are in there saying, yes, they're skewing the numbers. All right. Listen, let's get over there
at options and make your voice heard along with our actual, our traditional question of the week.
Well, let's get into some more vol and skew fun. Shall we listeners? What's going on from a skew
(16:53):
perspective? Is it the same deal? If you ran these numbers right now, would you think really not a
heck of a lot has transpired since our last show? And the answer is maybe kind of. Let's look out
on the seven day skew and see what's going on in the weekly front. Last week we were slightly
negative. Remember, if we're plus or minus a point, really in either direction from around zero, it
really to me is kind of meaningless. And that's where we were last week. Negative point three this
(17:15):
week go in the other direction. Positive point nine, but still within that window of especially
for the weekly vol front, weekly skew front, I should say really kind of kind of a rounding
error out there. Let's go a little bit farther out on the 30 day front. And again, looking very
similar to in a quarter on the show last week, two and three quarters this week. So slightly
juicier to the upside. But you would never look at this and say, oh, we must have broken through
(17:39):
new all time highs multiple times over the course of the past week. Going out on the six month skew
front, we're actually seeing that skew come in. We're at a positive five point seven on the show
last week, four and a quarter this week. So a lot of a lot of skew juice coming off the top
for the holders out there. Mr. Greg was catching your eye on the skew front and Bitcoin this week.
(18:00):
Yeah, I mean, to your point, long dated skew, you know, it's biased to the call side, but it's not
as crazy as we've seen it before just to contextualize for people. So if I'm looking at the
hundred and eighty day twenty five delta risk reversal, so as a twenty five delta call minus
the twenty five delta put on the hundred and eighty day DTEs right now, it's at about call
(18:22):
it five points. But if we go back to Q4 2020, really when Bitcoin finally broke past that
twenty thousand dollar high multi year high that I had before skew traded twenty two ball points
above the puts. So twenty two ball points that it calls over the puts. And that's for the hundred
(18:43):
and eighty days where we could see something like the thirty DTE trading fifty seven points above
the twenty five delta put. So we've had ball moves that are very, very crazy in terms of skew.
So where we are today is it's almost symmetric like it to me, there's no real skew being priced
(19:06):
in here. But I think there's good reason when we broke past twenty thousand back in Q4 2020,
we had the FOMO environment, but we didn't have the crypto vol infrastructure for market makers
and vol sellers to essentially take the other side with IBIT. It's a different environment. People
(19:26):
who have market making infrastructure, we have balance sheets to warehouse a very large call
skew through covered calls or whatever strategy they like to do or institutions who buy IBIT
and sell covered calls against it for yields. I suspect that it would be very unlikely that
(19:47):
we get back to that crazy, crazy call skew. And if we do get back to it like Q4 2020,
that's going to be like the one and done only opportunity to really sell it
because I think people will be dying to sell that. If you're a pension fund and you just put Bitcoin
on your balance sheet because you want a diversification of the asset class to your entire
(20:08):
portfolio and you just don't really care about Bitcoin, you want to sell the covered call
against it for income. And if you get called out, you get called out. There's a lot of people out
there. So there's a lot of people willing to sell that. So I don't think we'll get that crazy skew
again. So I think where we are today makes a lot of sense. Let's see if we can make some sense of
some of the other products you folks are slinging Bitcoin in right now. And Greg, it's funny. I've
(20:32):
been talking to a lot of people since I bit the options launch. A lot of people who were, let's
say, crypto reluctant, some who had famously washed their hands of their crypto holdings,
had divested of all of it. They've all been lured back to the dark side of crypto with the launch
of I bit options. Have you been seeing that as well, Greg? Just it's luring everybody back.
Yeah, I mean, I think it was very interesting to see I bit performance not only be 50 percent of
(21:01):
dare bit volume on day one, but I bit in terms of the largest option volume in the equity entire
equity space is top 12 out of 5,000 stocks. So it says something. Yeah, it's outpacing a lot of
other iShares products out there in terms of AUM. I beat gold a while ago. So yeah, it's been an
(21:23):
active one. And it's active again this week. Listeners, 6035 when we kicked off the show up
nearly five handles from where it was this time a week ago, it's got a short history, obviously,
but setting new 52 week highs and new all time highs pretty much all the time. So up nearly five
bucks. That's what is expected after all when we are hitting a new all time highs out there
(21:44):
in Bitcoin as well. And in terms of action, Greg, these new all time highs I was saying before,
we didn't see it reflected in the skew or the vol necessarily out there in Bitcoin. But we are
seeing it reflected in the vol here in I bit just a banger day. Again, we're talking VIX kind of
(22:06):
numbers here for this kind of volume 469,000 contracts on the tape. In fact, when I was
talking about VIX on our previous show just an hour and change ago, VIX wasn't at that level.
Now VIX has kicked in a little bit more. It's up to 679. So you're talking only a couple hundred
thousand contract difference now between I bit and VIX, which you can see why folks are getting
(22:27):
lured back to the dark side of I bit. Even if you're not that into Bitcoin, the volume and the
volatility is here. Listeners, the ADV 309,000 actually moving down 12,000 this week. I kind
of feel it's going to be going back up after this. If you're wondering what is the vol out here in
I bit, it is at a 60 literally unchanged from what we're looking at this time last week.
(22:49):
And the size open position still the same. Those 54 puts and calls kind of some
synthetics that traded right as the options were open. That is still kind of dominating the tape.
If you want to get beyond that, you have to go up to about 36,000 of the Jan 57 calls,
which again looked optimistic just a week ago. Now they are in the money calls as well as we're
(23:09):
hanging out north of a 30. Greg, just volume for days out here in I bit options. What is
catching your eyes? Yeah, definitely. So obviously the volumes there, I think another positioning
gauge is to look at open interest in the Delta one products talking about CME futures, talking
about the perps on say, finance and OK, yes, and by a bit and there a bit and things like that.
(23:33):
And then lastly, looking at the cost of funding and a futures basis in those products. So right now,
basis call it 16. This is only been passed since January 2022. The only times that we've had higher
basis were briefly around this spot ETF approval where basis hit a high of 20. And then in April,
(23:58):
when we made new all time highs for the first time where basis hit 22. Otherwise, basis is really
hanging out around the five to six percentage level. So where we are today is pretty extended
or it's getting extended in terms of funding and futures basis in those products. So that's
something to keep in mind. I think the story around the theorem and we'll come back to that
(24:21):
and basis is very interesting. But if we look at total open interest, one of the big stories is that
for the longest time, Binance was the open interest mecca of futures and perps for Bitcoin.
And today the mecca is CME. And so that's a very interesting story for sort of the demand and the
(24:44):
institutional demand for this Bitcoin move. And obviously the flows into IBIT and the volume
for IBIT back that story up as well. Yeah, a lot of flows going up out here in IBIT listeners. If
you're wondering what the big trades are today, almost 20,000, 19,000 of the 62 calls expiring
(25:05):
this week. So all of it going up here in the weeklies, let's just see really quickly what
do those go for. They went for 82 cents up to about a buck listener. So are you a buyer of a
weekly call? I mean, they're not quite as far out of the money as they were. Obviously, they have
rallied quite a bit. So 62s about now about a buck and a half as right about 16 and a half now,
(25:27):
about a buck and a half out of the money by the end of the week. And I bit get there.
Seems like the sky is the limit for this product followed by number two, 17,000 of the 58 halves
also expiring this week. Now we are opening definitely on the 62s, 58 halves. Maybe there's
a little bit of roll in action there. But and then if that's not enough for you, how about the 60s
going up 17,000 times today as well and now in the money strike as well. And how about let's get
(25:49):
let's get optimistic. Let's go up to about 13,000 of the 63s going up today also opening and also
about 13,000 of the 65. So maybe it looks like some vertical action going up out here. Listen,
so I bit lighten up the tape out here today. Listen, let's keep rolling. See what other products
see if every big Bitcoin name is feeling that rising tide lifting all boats. A lot of people
(26:15):
have been looking at Bitto of late, obviously with I bit taking up all the oxygen in the room.
The question is what's going to happen to Bitto? Well, Bitto rallying hard since our last show as
well. 2730 when we kicked off the show up $2.30. The ADV though taking a hit this week,
137,000 contracts a day. It sounds like a lot because it is, but it's down 66,000 from our
(26:38):
last show. So maybe some of those people starting to think maybe all that I bit volume has to come
from somewhere. Maybe it is new players obviously, but also maybe coming from a little bit of
cannibalization of Bitto as well. 102,000 contracts on the day today. So maybe they'll get to their
ADV, but maybe not much beyond that. The vol at a 59. So almost exactly up one point, almost exactly
(27:01):
identical to the 30 day vol in I bit, which is a 60. So yeah, if you were looking for maybe the
writing on the wall for Bitto, volume wise, not a good sign down 66,000 contracts. But again,
we are in that seasonally quiet period. So I'd be cautious about reading too much into that.
But Greg, what are your thoughts? I think they're starting to come for Bitto as the writing on the
wall, sir. I think Bitto is an interesting product. I hope the writing is not on the wall.
(27:28):
Again, Bitto is a great way to use equities to get exposure to that CME basis. And then obviously,
BittX, my favorite product, which is a 2X Bitto, has two times that exposure. So again, I think
there's a place for trading the basis product. And then there's a place for sort of the cash
(27:49):
product as such as I bit, just like the crypto complex has a lot of spot trading, but it has a
lot of perps and futures trading. And getting access to that stream of funding or the implied
funding is really, really interesting. The Bitto wrinkle is that huge dividend that's
a little bit harder to deal with and model out. But the basis part of it is really interesting.
(28:13):
And obviously, I mentioned here a lot of times, but I like the idea of selling my covered call
on Bitto and owning the I bit as the underlying. Obviously, there's some margin stuff there, but
there's interesting things to be done there. And obviously, the basis is an interesting
product to trade. Speaking of interesting products to trade, Greg, I don't know if they
(28:37):
get much more interesting and or terrifying than your favorite. I've called it the product
for crypto and options degenerates. This is MSTU strap in for this one. Listen, we got we got some
stuff to talk about here with MSTU trading right now as we kicked off the show, a balmy, a whopping
seventeen dollars and twenty five cents. Now, if you're saying to yourself, wait a minute,
(29:01):
wasn't it trading in the one 40s on the show last week? The answer was yes. We are down
about exactly one hundred and twenty three dollars from where we were this time a week ago. Greg,
we were joking about someone selling some puts for about eighteen dollars on the show last week.
You said I might want to buy those. This is just just mad. This is why I said,
(29:22):
listen, as if you're just dipping your toes in the crypto derivatives markets,
do not for the love of God, do not start an MSTU. This product is not for the faint of heart.
It's averaging eleven thousand contracts a day, which is up a thousand on the week. But
that doesn't even sniff what is going on out there today. Listeners, ninety two thousand contracts
(29:47):
going up today in MSTU listeners. The big dog today. Listeners, six thousand two hundred and
forty of the these 20s. These are now with stock has sold off since we started the show down to
sixteen and a half dollars. This thing is like holding grains of sand in your fingers. They just
keep slipping through. This thing is getting annihilated. But nearly over six thousand of the
(30:07):
these 20s have traded this week. Listeners, for prices starting at a buck and down to sixty cents,
let's hope for their sake they're selling these things. Looks like they might have been buying
them unless they were trying to crush the bit all the way down. But wow. And then the eighteen
point six calls as well. That's a great strike. Forty five hundred of those bad boys. This is all
(30:30):
opening paper, by the way, listeners, including a big block of four thousand two hundred and sixty
three going up, lifting the offer for a buck thirty. So it seems like folks were trying to scoop the
low of what they thought was the low when the stock was eighteen thirty a couple hours ago. Guess what?
It's below seventeen now. So you're wearing it on these calls as well. Greg, this is just madness.
(30:51):
I've said it before. This is the product for crypto degenerates. I'm sure we have a lot of
confused listeners right now as to what the hell is going on at MSTU. So let's start there, Greg.
You love this product. You're the one who brought it to the to this show. You're the one who infected
our show with this product. What the heck is going on in MSTU? Yes. The ultimate DGN product.
So, yeah, obviously, over the weekend, we had a stock split split 10 to one. And then over the
(31:18):
weekend or, you know, on Friday going into the weekend, we had the MSTR, which MSTU is the two
times MSTR. We had the approval of micro strategy being added to the NASDAQ 100. So that sent,
you know, the product up a little bit on that news. And now we're in a situation where theoretically
(31:39):
it gets added to NASDAQ 100 on the 23rd of December. But we just, you know, are we in a
sell the news moment? I think that's kind of my thesis here. We had the news event for micro
strategy. And even if spot is not a sell the news event, I do think vol probably is. I think this
(32:01):
was a big vol catalyst for micro strategy. Micro strategy vol is absolutely insane, which
times that by two for MSTU vol. But if I just pull this up real quick, if I look at the realized
volatility for the past four years, you know, the upper 75th percentage child, which is where we are
today for most measurements, call it 21 days, 84 days, 189 days, is at about 110. So that today
(32:27):
we're at about 110 realized vol. And then sort of the median is about call it 75 to 80. So I think,
you know, if we have a little bit of a sell the news event in terms of realized vol, I think we
could see realized vol come down. If we look at the implied vol term structure for micro strategy,
(32:48):
I like micro strategy for just the initial vol analysis, because it's very liquid. But if we
look at, say, the term structure, we have a little bit of a backwardation term structure.
So, you know, we're kind of peaking out at a 60 DTE implied at about 125 vol. And right now,
(33:10):
110 vol is to realize and to realize is a little bit high. And now we just got the catalyst for the,
you know, vol reversion a little bit. So I think that's kind of interesting. So that makes MSTU
an interesting way to play that, because obviously there's two times vol exposure there.
And then in terms of price, I mean, it's a little bit of a tough play, because there's every reason
(33:37):
for price to finally kind of come down on micro strategy and MSTU, because we have 300%
net asset value premium in the equity. We have the company itself selling equity to raise capital to
buy Bitcoin. But really, it's one of those things with the market is pretty enthusiastic around
(33:58):
Bitcoin and therefore around micro strategy and so on and so forth. So it's a little bit of a battle.
But I think the vol peak is behind us for the for the near term to medium term when talking about
micro strategy. So that's not you coming in and gobbling up the D.C. 1860s for this week.
And a buck 30 for those bad boys or up to a buck 60. Some of those, my goodness. Wow.
(34:22):
This thing is just a beast. And by the way, I'm glad we discussed that because I could just see
the letters and emails coming in, Greg. One of my pet peeves, and when there's a big stock split,
and they don't adjust their charts to reflect that I'm looking at some of that while you're
talking, I was looking at some of the the major outlets out there that some of our casual listeners
might use like a Yahoo Finance and a Google. And of course, they just show the stock just falling
(34:43):
out of bed, right? They show it going from 163 on Friday to 17 bucks. And so I just knew the emails
and questions were going to come in. What the hell is going on? So a good time to address that here
on the show. Listen, yes, obviously there was whenever you see stuff like this, chances are,
it's not just well, obviously, stocks can get annihilated, but usually dig into the weeds a
little bit, you will find you will find the specifics. You can also if you are curious
(35:06):
listeners, anything has listed options on it, it's going to be cleared by the OCC. So if you're
confused by something like this, take the ticker and go over to the options clearing Corp, just
OCC and type in the ticker in their search bar. And then you usually will be a circular explaining
all of this. So we'll say, hey, here's what's going on. The stock has been adjusted 10 for one split.
(35:26):
Here's what's going on with your options position. So if you are ever uncertain what's going on with
one of your underlying to see a big move like this, chances are there's some sort of corporate
action, maybe you're missing, and you can go check it out for yourselves. Just type the ticker over
there at the OCC and they will usually set you straight. Let's get out of here on Mera really
quickly. I don't think anything can really hold a candle to MSTU listeners. So we'll burn through
(35:49):
Mera really quickly. 24 and a half right now, up about half a buck. The ADV sub 500, so sub half a
million for the first time in a while. Still a lot of paper. My goodness, Mera also threatening VIX,
even though that's down 44,000 this week as well. Today, it looks like they're threatening it. 417,000
contracts on the tape. The big dog today, by the way, in Mera, 23,000 of the 25 calls expiring this
(36:12):
week, only half a buck out of the money. So clearly rolling the bones there. And the D26 is also
expiring this week. 19,000, almost 20,000 of those also opening there. So some opening upside paper
in Mera. The vol right now, 115, up a whopping 35 points. So Mera looking juicy, also looking
frothy from a vol perspective, as was IVID out there and MSTU just looking completely insane.
(36:36):
So again, not for the faint of heart listeners as we keep on rolling to explore the altcoin universe.
It's time to move beyond Bitcoin and find out what's moving the rest of the crypto marketplace.
It's time to boldly venture into the altcoin universe.
All right, listeners, let's get into it. Usually this is where the madness is on the show,
(37:02):
but MSTU steal a lot of thunder this week. Usually the bottom half of our top 10
and the altcoin universe is where the madness is. And you know, it's still pretty wild out here this
week. We are pretty much treading water on the overall level to break into the top 10,
maybe up slightly. Last week we had Tron at about 25.3 billion. This week, Tron managing to hold on
(37:25):
to the number 10 spot yet again. So kicking all the others to the curb at about 25 and a half
billion worth of market cap. So up slightly on the week. Number nine, we got Cardano 38.6 billion.
Number eight, USD coin, 42 and a half billion. Number seven, it is Doge 59 and a half billion
worth of market cap. Number six, BMB, 104 and a half billion. Number five, our old pal Solana,
(37:49):
104.6 billion. Number four, XRP, 140.8 billion. Number three, it's Tether, 140. This is interesting.
This is actually showing XRP should be above it. So this chart's a little wonky listeners.
So we have a kind of a close tie, what around 140 billion each for Tether and XRP kind of fighting
back and forth the number three and four spot. Number two, you know what it is. It's ETH 486.9
(38:13):
billion and the big dog Bitcoin, new highs mean new levels as well. Over 2 trillion in market cap.
Now just a tick under 2.1 trillion, 2.099 trillion worth of market cap in Bitcoin. My goodness,
listeners. But you know, one of the other narratives we've been talking about on the show,
(38:34):
not just that MSTU is for complete degenerates, but also, you know, what's up with Bitcoin?
What's up with ETH? Why can't it keep pace with everything else? We have seen a little bit of
resurgence over the last few weeks. Seems like the ETH heads are getting that memo,
trying to play a little bit of catch up. I didn't do it this week. Well, ETH back north of 4,000. So
(38:55):
not quite at a new all time high like Bitcoin, but starting to get reminiscent of some of those
levels we saw not that long ago. Few years in the rearview, Mayor 44, 4500. 4,046 was where we were
at the start of the show. Puts us up to 220 handles, some of the 3826 level we were at a week ago.
Mr. Greg, what's catching your eye in the world of ETH, sir?
(39:16):
Yeah. So one of the things that I recently read about and saw in ETH is that a lot of the open
interest, you know, the COT report is showing traders net short futures in Ethereum and there's
a large futures short. And I think one of the things that's very interesting is ETH is a yielding
(39:39):
asset. Bitcoin is not a yielding asset. The ETH futures basis is at around 16 percent,
similar to Bitcoin, but typically yielding assets that the future, the futures term structure would
be more of a back gradation as opposed to a contango because it's meant to mimic that synthetic yield.
(40:01):
And so the way that the futures term structure is right now in Ethereum,
theoretically, you can buy Ethereum and stake Ethereum, earn your 5 percent staking yield,
and then go to the futures market and sell short the future and earn another 16 percent. And so
I think the futures term structure in Ethereum is having a moment of reflection and rebalance.
(40:26):
I think the true catalyst for this to send the term structure into back gradation and essentially
crush the term structure for ETH, we need to see the ETFs, the spot ETF for Ethereum,
start accruing staking yield. The second that happens, investors will be able to buy the spot
(40:50):
Ethereum ETF, earn the yield through the ETF, use the ETF as collateral to short the CME future,
and then I think we see convergence in that spread. And so what I would expect is futures yields
go from positive 16 percent to negative 6 percent-ish, or at least a big drop, maybe not negative 6
(41:14):
percent, but a 6 percent discount to the Bitcoin one at least. And so I think this is what some
early traders are starting to price. So that's pretty interesting. Overall,
ETH has been a big laggard for some of the fundamental reasons we talked about
in the past few episodes about L2s and transactions being done off. L1, off chain,
(41:37):
which is reducing the burn mechanism, and ETH, which flips ETH supply from decreasing to
inflationary and increasing, so on and so forth. So these are kind of the dynamics that are pretty
interesting. For regular traders, how do I take advantage of that? Again, these products like
ETHU, which is a two times ETH ETF that's built on top of the CME futures. It's got a lot of
(42:01):
exposure to that basis, has a lot of exposure to the ETF2X performance drag, things like that.
And obviously, the higher volume ETH, which the ETH term structure is about 10 points
premium to the Bitcoin term structure. So that's another interesting aspect.
I like that. Would you say rest and relaxation for ETH? Was that your terminal? I like that.
(42:23):
Rest and reflection, I think, is what you said. But it makes some sense, given what we're seeing
out here. You mentioned the term structure. Let's go explore it ourselves. Listening is
kind of coming up against it. We already talked a lot about MSTU and all that madness and Bitcoin,
of course. So let's combine the SKU and the vol here. Let's go out on the vol front first,
70 and a half on the weekly vol a week ago, this week, 72 and three quarters. So
(42:43):
getting a little bit frothy. Let's go out on the 30-day vol front. We were at 70 and a quarter this
time a week ago, 69 and a half. So coming in roughly half a point. And going out six months,
listener, 69.7 on the show last week, 72, 65. So get a wee bit frothier here. Maybe it's that
4,000 level makes the ETH folks kind of stroke their chin and say, hmm, on the SKU front listeners,
(43:06):
not a heck of a lot going on the weekly front. We were negative one and a half on the show last week,
negative one and a half today. So re-rack and wait for another week, I suppose. Going out 30
days, 1.3 to the upside last week, positive two this week and going out a whopping six months,
five and three quarters on the ETH front a week ago this week, four and a quarter. So coming in
(43:26):
about a point and a half. Greg, you kind of just mentioned the term structure and ETH, anything
else catching your eye from a vol or SKU perspective right now in the number two crypto asset, sir?
I think the main aspect that I think is kind of interesting here in terms of the term structure
is obviously since we're at a premium to Bitcoin, the market is reflecting that if ETH has a smaller
(43:50):
market cap, ETH has a higher realized small historically, should we get the altcoin rotation?
I think that 10 ballpoint premium is more than justified in terms of relative vol.
But in terms of implied versus realized, the same sort of dynamics exists for ETH as they exist
for Bitcoin, which basically we're trading at a pretty large premium to realize. And I definitely
(44:15):
think that the trend of lower structural vol is as true for ETH as it is for Bitcoin. So keep that in
mind. We will keep that in mind as we roll through some of the other altcoin for this week. Listeners,
Solana, obviously a rival, a contender for the ETH crown, looking a little bit lighter this week,
(44:37):
223 and a quarter last week to 1884 this week down almost four and a half handles on the week.
XRP 242 last week, 247. So it looks like it's back in that kind of treading water range that it was
in for years is two and a half. Roughly the next level we're going to be stuck at an XRP for a while.
We're going to give it up. Are we going to rally ho? Right now lately we've been hanging out back
(45:00):
at this level after hitting higher levels and retreating. Dogecoin 43.4 cents last week,
40.4 cents. So down about three cents. Litecoin 122.40 last week, 120.16 down about two and a
quarter this week. Cardano literally, well, I guess a penny almost literally lunched. 111 last week,
110 today. So not much cooking there. Polkadot 955 last week, 892 this week down 63 cents. And
(45:26):
Greg's favorite, his largest crypto holding Shiba Inu. It was a million zeros, 297 last week this
week, 274. So coming in a wee bit, unfortunately, no crypto lambos for Mr. Greg this week. Mr. Greg,
before we roll on out of here for the show, any other altcoin lighting up your tape or your wallet
this week, sir? I think the last kind of play, which I've talked about a lot, which is the spec
(45:51):
play of, you know, does Dogecoin get added to X as a payments rail? I think that's always kind of a
play out there. And then in terms of different altcoins, there's a lot of restaking coins for
Ethereum. Eigenlayers is something is a protocol that's helped do that. So if you're kind of an
(46:11):
ETH hodler, there's a lot of ways for you to earn staking rewards without going through a staking
process. I think those are interesting avenues to look into. And so yeah, I would take a look at all
that stuff. All right, everybody, that music means we'd come to the end of another wild journey
through the world of crypto. We talked obviously Bitcoin new all time highs. Do we need a strategic
(46:34):
Bitcoin reserve the madness of MSTU, the dis confounding sometimes madness and just frustration
that is ETH and a whole bunch of other fun stuff. Greg, as we're winding down the show here, I just
checked in once again with our audience. We are now at 57.1 percent of listeners say yes and 42.9
saying no. So it is a pretty contentious issue even with our audience. Greg, what do you think?
(46:57):
Yeah, I mean, I understand the arguments on both sides. And it's one of those things where, you
know, if Bitcoin is here to stay, getting a strategic reserve seems like the smartest move
in the entire world. If Bitcoin is a fad and it's 2000 internet bubble status and then we bought
Bitcoin reserve and the thing goes to zero, it looks pretty foolish. So it's definitely a binary
(47:21):
outcome. And I can understand the arguments on both sides. So folks have very heated viewpoints.
Why don't you go ahead and give them your personal cell phone number, Greg, so they can contact you
at 2 a.m. and share their thoughts about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. And while you're at
that, Mr. Greg, where should folks go if they want to check out more of the cool tools you guys have
to offer over there at Amberdata? Yeah, absolutely. So as Mark mentioned earlier, the GUI completely
(47:46):
free for all you listeners. You can look at their charts. You can look at micro strategy,
vol surfaces, I bit order flow, things like that. Please go to pro dot Amberdata dot I.O.
Sign up with an email and you'll have full access to the platform. You can modify it,
save your dashboard, so on and so forth. If you want some more analysis from from our end,
(48:09):
you can go to Amberdata derivatives dot sub stack dot com. And lastly, if you want to visit our
website, Amberdata dot I.O. If you're an institution looking for API access to all the underlying data,
you can get in touch with us. And one of our salespeople will reach out to you guys.
There you go, listeners. If you're listening to this show, that must mean you're curious
(48:32):
about that stuff. Now with the GUI going free, you have literally no reason
not to kick the tires and light the fires. Begin your journey over there. Amberdata dot I.O.
The place to go to learn more. We have to get on out of here. Listeners back again tomorrow
for all you pro folks rolling out the crypto hot seat. Who's going to join us? Well, I guess you
have to find out over there. The options insider dot com slash pro is the place to go to learn more.
(48:56):
Then we're back again with our usual array of content throughout the week. Options boot camp,
the option block, volatility views, all sorts of fun. Until we're back again next Monday,
another episode of the Crypto Rundown. Stay safe out there, everybody.
The Crypto Rundown is brought to you by Amberdata. If you're entering the digital asset class,
(49:18):
you'll need access to granular on-chain and market data from multiple venues to power research,
trading, risk management and compliance. Amberdata delivers comprehensive data and insights into
blockchain networks, crypto markets and decentralized finance, empowering financial institutions to
apply traditional finance methods to digital assets. Amberdata eliminates the infrastructure
(49:41):
setup, integration challenges and maintenance headaches to access digital asset data,
reducing cost and time to market to enter the digital asset class. Learn more and download
their digital asset data guide at www.amberdata.io.
You're listening to the options insider radio network, the home of the options podcast. For
(50:10):
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(50:41):
Don't forget to follow along with your favorite programs and submit your own questions for the
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(51:07):
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You're listening to the Options Insider Radio Network, the home of the Options Podcast.
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Listeners can also access all of our programming through our mobile app available on the iTunes
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Most programs are also available via livestream at mixler.com/options-insider.
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(00:52):
at theoptionsinsider.com.
Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Doge, and more.
Cryptocurrencies and digital assets are taking the financial world by storm.
(01:14):
This exploding market provides everything a savvy trader needs.
Volatility, volume, and liquidity, provided you know how to find it.
That's where we come in.
Welcome to the Crypto Rundown.
Each week we'll break down the latest trading activity, trends, and developments throughout
the world's leading crypto derivatives markets.
If it's moving the crypto markets, then you'll find it on the Crypto Rundown.
(01:39):
The Crypto Rundown is brought to you by Amber Data.
If you're entering the digital asset class, you'll need access to granular on-chain and
market data from multiple venues to power research, trading, risk management, and compliance.
Amber Data delivers comprehensive data and insights into blockchain networks, crypto
markets, and decentralized finance, empowering financial institutions to apply traditional
(02:02):
finance methods to digital assets.
Amber Data eliminates the infrastructure setup, integration challenges, and maintenance headaches
to access digital asset data, reducing cost and time to market to enter the digital asset
class.
Learn more and download their digital asset data guide at www.amberdata.io.
(02:23):
Now it's time to dive into the exploding world of crypto derivatives.
It's time for the Crypto Rundown.
All right, everybody.
That music means we are back once again.
It is Monday.
It is post option block.
(02:44):
It means it's time once again to roll out a little bit of the old Crypto Rundown, see
what's exploding.
In some cases, quite literally out there in the world of all things crypto.
My name, of course, Mark Longo from the optionsinsider.com, as well as from the network upon which all
of you folks have been binging.
Couple of things to remind you of at the top of the show.
(03:06):
First off, if you're not listening to the full network, including shows like Options
Bootcamp, you are missing out.
It will really get a lot of you out there who are, let's say, crypto native, maybe up
to speed in all things options and derivatives.
And of course, if you want to go above and beyond, you definitely want to join us for
our pro Q and A's and our options oddities.
Get the exclusive podcast feed.
Get of course, live streams, the giveaways, all sorts of fun.
(03:29):
The optionsinsider.com/pro is the place to go.
As we see who's joining us on the old Crypto Rundown today.
I'm pleased to welcome back on our old pal.
There's just so much going on.
He had to come back.
Mr. Greg Magadini, the director of derivatives over there at Amberdana.
Mr. Greg, welcome back to the show, sir.
(03:50):
Thank you so much, Mark.
Yeah, definitely a ton going on.
So very excited to be back on the show and talk about it.
Hey, keep picking these boring weeks to come on the show.
You know, we got to search for things to talk about, Greg.
It's a heavy lift, but we'll see what we can do as we keep on rolling into the Bitcoin breakdown.
It's time to explore the latest trending activity, trends and developments across
(04:11):
the world's leading crypto market.
It's time for the Bitcoin breakdown.
All right, everybody.
Welcome to the Bitcoin breakdown.
The portion of the show where we do does that.
We break down all the action in the world's leading digital asset.
Yep.
We're talking about the big dog, which is Bitcoin looking a lot bigger,
(04:33):
historically bigger now since our last show.
We were at 97 to 55 on our show last week coming into this show,
rock ending north of 100 K.
Then we didn't stop there.
Hit a new high right around 105.
Then said, you know what?
Why stop there?
Let's hit 106, even breaking past 107 briefly earlier this morning.
So a new all time highs, a plenty out there as we were kicking off the show back down to a paltry,
(04:58):
a meager 106 and 43 listeners. So just massive rallies out there on the Bitcoin front.
We have to start there, Mr. Greg, a lot going on.
What is catching your eye out there in this just wild rally in Bitcoin?
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of narratives going on about sort of the fundamental picture of Bitcoin.
(05:23):
So obviously, we have this trend of corporate treasuries adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
I think Microsoft just voted on potentially doing that.
It got denied.
But one of the big news events that we've gotten in the past few days is that
now Bitcoin is going to be treated like a regular mark to market asset,
as opposed to a long term asset that gets depreciated in accounting terms.
(05:49):
So this will be very interesting because now it's just a liquid asset like anything else.
That's a kind of cash like security like stocks or anything else like that where you can mark to
market. So the thesis goes that more corporations are going to be adding it to their balance sheet.
And then obviously, we're getting more chit chat about strategic Bitcoin reserves from
(06:10):
our government level. We've actually seen even Japan talk about that recently.
And so those are kind of the fundamental backdrops around what's happening in terms
of price action and then in terms of sort of the vol, this move today, which is also closely
associated with micro strategy being added or approved to be added on the NASDAQ 100.
(06:35):
I think those shares start becoming traded together on the 23rd of December.
Well, that's created a narrative to move up Bitcoin, flatten up term structure.
So a few days ago, short term vol was as low as around 35. And now the front end of the term
structure is completely flat. So we're around kind of a 55 to 60 implied vol landscape for Bitcoin
(07:01):
right now. And so obviously, things are moving right now. And I think the options market is
pricing in that this is not a one and done thing. We could keep moving for a little while here.
He brought up one of the hot debates right now, Greg, which is this notion of the strategic Bitcoin
reserve. Sounds cool. Sounds very, very official. Of course, something like we have for petroleum
(07:25):
out there. This is a bit of a contentious issue. Some folks, even Powell coming out saying that's
kind of kind of ludicrous. A lot of people who are not maybe as knee deep into the crypto world saying
why do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Bitcoin will never be a currency. It's threatening
a hundred vol. You can't have a currency that is that volatile. And then you have folks like Trump
(07:45):
coming out there beating that drum on the campaign trail. Some folks said he was maybe just cow town
a bit to the crypto crowd, get a little bit of price support action, saying we're going to buy
a whole bunch of it for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. But Greg, where do you fall on this? Do
you see a necessity for a strategic Bitcoin reserve or is this kind of just Trump speak on the campaign
trail? Yeah, it's a very interesting question because at the end of the day, historically,
(08:12):
gold has been the currency of the people, so to speak. And then we moved on to a fiat system
backed by gold. And then with Bretton Woods, we actually ended the complete gold backing of fiat.
And now we just have paper fiat. And so if we think about the global debt level where we are today,
(08:34):
it's kind of the end of the so-called debt super cycle. And where do we go from here? And is going
back to hard money a good idea? And if we do go back to hard money, at least in part, if not in
full, what does that hard money look like? Do we just always go back to what people call the pet
rock of gold? I like gold. I don't think it's a pet rock. But is gold always the solution? And if
(09:00):
the world is actually going towards digital gold, well, then there's a huge first mover advantage
if we can just print our own fiat and then buy some Bitcoin or some gold with that fiat and be
the first to move into that landscape. There's an argument to be made there. And realistically,
(09:20):
if the world wasn't super in debt the way that we are, maybe that discussion is not as important.
But if we are super in debt, I do think it could be a quote unquote way out or a way to make your
paper currency hard money in some way. And I think Japan is the perfect example. I wouldn't be
(09:42):
surprised that they do it. One, because they're the most in debt, but two, because they have a
society that could pull it off. And I think for us in the US, we could also do it. But I think the
path is maybe not as completely clear, but I think it could make sense. Yeah. Yeah. It's a fascinating
(10:02):
question out there, listeners. Do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve listeners? What are
your thoughts? Might be a fun question of the week for you folks out there. Maybe might be interesting.
A lot of folks are up in arms on both sides of this. Is this kind of just talking up his supporters
there or is there more grist for the mill? Can Bitcoin really, is there, is it a strategic asset
(10:27):
these days? I'm curious, obviously the folks at Microsoft and some other big companies saying,
no, we don't need this on our books right now. So a lot of back and forth on this, which it makes it
interesting. Is there back and forth on the vol and skew side? Let's find out. Remember listeners,
if you want to kick the tires and light the fires for yourselves, only one place to go for all this
data we're talking about here and a whole bunch more. We are literally just scratching the surface
(10:50):
of what is available. It is only a roughly one hour show listeners at the end of the day. You want
to see it all for yourselves. Amber data dot IO, the place to go to kick the tires and light the
fires. Remember that graphical version, the GUI completely free for you folks now. So you have no
excuse if you want to go kick the tires on all this data. If you are even remotely curious,
if you are hashtag crypto curious, you need to be heading over to Amber data dot IO. If you did that,
(11:14):
you could see all this cool data. Like we're going to break down right now. Like what is going on on
the weekly vol front in Bitcoin? And you know, it's been a couple of weeks in a row now. It's been
kind of fascinating to see where if you just ran the weekly vol numbers and you looked at nothing
else in the Bitcoin world, you just looked at this number, you would say, oh, absolutely nothing
happened this week. It was a very quiet week out there because we are almost literally unchanged on
(11:37):
the seven day vol from this time a week ago, last week, 54 and three quarters this week, a whopping
54 and a half. Now, as I say all that, remember, keep all this in the context that we are coming
into what is traditionally the seasonally quiet period for volatility across the board. Everyone
thinks of inequities, but most asset classes tend to be a little quieter from a vol perspective
(11:59):
heading into the holidays for obvious reasons. Not much going up in the market. Folks are away,
have other things on their brain than let's say Bitcoin volatility. So bear that in mind what
we're talking about here, but let's see if if we keep this unchanged theme going throughout the
rest of the vol landscape here. Let's go out a little bit farther. Let's see what's cooking,
let's say 30 days from now, shall we? And more standardized volatility metric on our last show,
(12:22):
we're at 55.2 coming into the other show today, a little bit frothy or a little bit juicier, 57.3.
That's even more interesting when we keep that context in mind that it is that seasonally quiet
period where vol is supposed to be coming in. So a little bit juicier on the 30 day front. If we go
all the way out of whopping six months, listeners, what are the holders up to into the wilds of next
(12:45):
year? Let's find out. Last week on the show, 59.65 was the six month vol. This week up exactly 2.61.65.
So getting a little bit frothier, a little bit juicier farther out on the term structure, which
is also interesting. Mr. Greg, a lot to unpack here on the vol term structure was catching your
eye this week, sir. Yeah, I think the term structure is very interesting. So given all the
(13:11):
bullish narratives and the potential sort of reserve currency status that could really make
Bitcoin jump, and by jump, I mean like literally jump risk where there's no trading in between,
given that aside, like if we look at realized vol for say, IBIT, really the realized vol for the
past, you know, call it 84 days or 189 days rolling window is about a 57. And so if I look
(13:38):
at the term structure, if I look at the leaps or the two year leaps, the vol is really kind of
65 to 70 on the implied side, which is a pretty big premium over the range of realized vol. And
then let's add in the factor that realized vol is high right now because we've just rallied so much
(13:59):
and we've had such a big move. If I go back to say 2023, we had some realized vol periods of 35 in
Bitcoin, and we had a sort of a structural decline in realized volatility. So if I was pretty sure
the risk of approval of Bitcoin reserve status wasn't going to happen, then I would say implied
(14:21):
is definitely a sell here. Not only do I think implied is a premium over realized, but I also
think realized has some mean reversion lower to do. So that's kind of my initial instinct.
Now, obviously, there's a little bit of risk if we get some craziness in terms of global policy of
adding governments, adding Bitcoin at our balance sheet, especially big governments such as the US
(14:45):
or Japan or some European governments or whatever. In that case, you know, Bitcoin can go nuts pretty
fast. So in my mind, the types of structures that are kind of interesting is, you know, maybe
do some structures that end up being sort of delta long, but Vega short for call it
six months to 12 months time period. And then in the four months time period, own some really,
(15:13):
really wingy insurance in terms of some some gamma cover in case something crazy happens.
And so if you get a grind up, that's not the move you want. If you get like a rather grindy,
steep move up, that's not the move you want. But if you get the jump risk,
that is definitely the move you want. And in your short term,
gamma coverage will definitely pay off there. And then if you get something that's like
(15:37):
controlled bullishness and ball comes down, that does very well. So I like that sort of barbell
strategy where I'll take the risk in the fast move up, but winning in the jump up or controlled
grind up situations. Interesting stuff. Speaking of interesting, Mr. Greg, we thought who better to
(16:01):
solve the question of do we need a strategic Bitcoin reserve or not than our audience? They
are the ultimate arbiters at the end of the day of all of these contentious issues. Mr. Greg,
so we put it out to them right now, a bit of a flash poll to the audience, if you will, Mr.
Greg. And in the early voting, which way do you think our audience is going, Greg?
Early voting. I said, I think they said yes. You are right. Two thirds exactly. Coming down on yes.
(16:28):
And a third coming down is no, it's only been live for like two minutes. So we'll see how it shakes
out as the week unfolds, Mr. Greg. But right now in the early voting, Greg and all of his cronies
are in there saying, yes, they're skewing the numbers. All right. Listen, let's get over there
at options and make your voice heard along with our actual, our traditional question of the week.
Well, let's get into some more vol and skew fun. Shall we listeners? What's going on from a skew
(16:53):
perspective? Is it the same deal? If you ran these numbers right now, would you think really not a
heck of a lot has transpired since our last show? And the answer is maybe kind of. Let's look out
on the seven day skew and see what's going on in the weekly front. Last week we were slightly
negative. Remember, if we're plus or minus a point, really in either direction from around zero, it
really to me is kind of meaningless. And that's where we were last week. Negative point three this
(17:15):
week go in the other direction. Positive point nine, but still within that window of especially
for the weekly vol front, weekly skew front, I should say really kind of kind of a rounding
error out there. Let's go a little bit farther out on the 30 day front. And again, looking very
similar to in a quarter on the show last week, two and three quarters this week. So slightly
juicier to the upside. But you would never look at this and say, oh, we must have broken through
(17:39):
new all time highs multiple times over the course of the past week. Going out on the six month skew
front, we're actually seeing that skew come in. We're at a positive five point seven on the show
last week, four and a quarter this week. So a lot of a lot of skew juice coming off the top
for the holders out there. Mr. Greg was catching your eye on the skew front and Bitcoin this week.
(18:00):
Yeah, I mean, to your point, long dated skew, you know, it's biased to the call side, but it's not
as crazy as we've seen it before just to contextualize for people. So if I'm looking at the
hundred and eighty day twenty five delta risk reversal, so as a twenty five delta call minus
the twenty five delta put on the hundred and eighty day DTEs right now, it's at about call
(18:22):
it five points. But if we go back to Q4 2020, really when Bitcoin finally broke past that
twenty thousand dollar high multi year high that I had before skew traded twenty two ball points
above the puts. So twenty two ball points that it calls over the puts. And that's for the hundred
(18:43):
and eighty days where we could see something like the thirty DTE trading fifty seven points above
the twenty five delta put. So we've had ball moves that are very, very crazy in terms of skew.
So where we are today is it's almost symmetric like it to me, there's no real skew being priced
(19:06):
in here. But I think there's good reason when we broke past twenty thousand back in Q4 2020,
we had the FOMO environment, but we didn't have the crypto vol infrastructure for market makers
and vol sellers to essentially take the other side with IBIT. It's a different environment. People
(19:26):
who have market making infrastructure, we have balance sheets to warehouse a very large call
skew through covered calls or whatever strategy they like to do or institutions who buy IBIT
and sell covered calls against it for yields. I suspect that it would be very unlikely that
(19:47):
we get back to that crazy, crazy call skew. And if we do get back to it like Q4 2020,
that's going to be like the one and done only opportunity to really sell it
because I think people will be dying to sell that. If you're a pension fund and you just put Bitcoin
on your balance sheet because you want a diversification of the asset class to your entire
(20:08):
portfolio and you just don't really care about Bitcoin, you want to sell the covered call
against it for income. And if you get called out, you get called out. There's a lot of people out
there. So there's a lot of people willing to sell that. So I don't think we'll get that crazy skew
again. So I think where we are today makes a lot of sense. Let's see if we can make some sense of
some of the other products you folks are slinging Bitcoin in right now. And Greg, it's funny. I've
(20:32):
been talking to a lot of people since I bit the options launch. A lot of people who were, let's
say, crypto reluctant, some who had famously washed their hands of their crypto holdings,
had divested of all of it. They've all been lured back to the dark side of crypto with the launch
of I bit options. Have you been seeing that as well, Greg? Just it's luring everybody back.
Yeah, I mean, I think it was very interesting to see I bit performance not only be 50 percent of
(21:01):
dare bit volume on day one, but I bit in terms of the largest option volume in the equity entire
equity space is top 12 out of 5,000 stocks. So it says something. Yeah, it's outpacing a lot of
other iShares products out there in terms of AUM. I beat gold a while ago. So yeah, it's been an
(21:23):
active one. And it's active again this week. Listeners, 6035 when we kicked off the show up
nearly five handles from where it was this time a week ago, it's got a short history, obviously,
but setting new 52 week highs and new all time highs pretty much all the time. So up nearly five
bucks. That's what is expected after all when we are hitting a new all time highs out there
(21:44):
in Bitcoin as well. And in terms of action, Greg, these new all time highs I was saying before,
we didn't see it reflected in the skew or the vol necessarily out there in Bitcoin. But we are
seeing it reflected in the vol here in I bit just a banger day. Again, we're talking VIX kind of
(22:06):
numbers here for this kind of volume 469,000 contracts on the tape. In fact, when I was
talking about VIX on our previous show just an hour and change ago, VIX wasn't at that level.
Now VIX has kicked in a little bit more. It's up to 679. So you're talking only a couple hundred
thousand contract difference now between I bit and VIX, which you can see why folks are getting
(22:27):
lured back to the dark side of I bit. Even if you're not that into Bitcoin, the volume and the
volatility is here. Listeners, the ADV 309,000 actually moving down 12,000 this week. I kind
of feel it's going to be going back up after this. If you're wondering what is the vol out here in
I bit, it is at a 60 literally unchanged from what we're looking at this time last week.
(22:49):
And the size open position still the same. Those 54 puts and calls kind of some
synthetics that traded right as the options were open. That is still kind of dominating the tape.
If you want to get beyond that, you have to go up to about 36,000 of the Jan 57 calls,
which again looked optimistic just a week ago. Now they are in the money calls as well as we're
(23:09):
hanging out north of a 30. Greg, just volume for days out here in I bit options. What is
catching your eyes? Yeah, definitely. So obviously the volumes there, I think another positioning
gauge is to look at open interest in the Delta one products talking about CME futures, talking
about the perps on say, finance and OK, yes, and by a bit and there a bit and things like that.
(23:33):
And then lastly, looking at the cost of funding and a futures basis in those products. So right now,
basis call it 16. This is only been passed since January 2022. The only times that we've had higher
basis were briefly around this spot ETF approval where basis hit a high of 20. And then in April,
(23:58):
when we made new all time highs for the first time where basis hit 22. Otherwise, basis is really
hanging out around the five to six percentage level. So where we are today is pretty extended
or it's getting extended in terms of funding and futures basis in those products. So that's
something to keep in mind. I think the story around the theorem and we'll come back to that
(24:21):
and basis is very interesting. But if we look at total open interest, one of the big stories is that
for the longest time, Binance was the open interest mecca of futures and perps for Bitcoin.
And today the mecca is CME. And so that's a very interesting story for sort of the demand and the
(24:44):
institutional demand for this Bitcoin move. And obviously the flows into IBIT and the volume
for IBIT back that story up as well. Yeah, a lot of flows going up out here in IBIT listeners. If
you're wondering what the big trades are today, almost 20,000, 19,000 of the 62 calls expiring
(25:05):
this week. So all of it going up here in the weeklies, let's just see really quickly what
do those go for. They went for 82 cents up to about a buck listener. So are you a buyer of a
weekly call? I mean, they're not quite as far out of the money as they were. Obviously, they have
rallied quite a bit. So 62s about now about a buck and a half as right about 16 and a half now,
(25:27):
about a buck and a half out of the money by the end of the week. And I bit get there.
Seems like the sky is the limit for this product followed by number two, 17,000 of the 58 halves
also expiring this week. Now we are opening definitely on the 62s, 58 halves. Maybe there's
a little bit of roll in action there. But and then if that's not enough for you, how about the 60s
going up 17,000 times today as well and now in the money strike as well. And how about let's get
(25:49):
let's get optimistic. Let's go up to about 13,000 of the 63s going up today also opening and also
about 13,000 of the 65. So maybe it looks like some vertical action going up out here. Listen,
so I bit lighten up the tape out here today. Listen, let's keep rolling. See what other products
see if every big Bitcoin name is feeling that rising tide lifting all boats. A lot of people
(26:15):
have been looking at Bitto of late, obviously with I bit taking up all the oxygen in the room.
The question is what's going to happen to Bitto? Well, Bitto rallying hard since our last show as
well. 2730 when we kicked off the show up $2.30. The ADV though taking a hit this week,
137,000 contracts a day. It sounds like a lot because it is, but it's down 66,000 from our
(26:38):
last show. So maybe some of those people starting to think maybe all that I bit volume has to come
from somewhere. Maybe it is new players obviously, but also maybe coming from a little bit of
cannibalization of Bitto as well. 102,000 contracts on the day today. So maybe they'll get to their
ADV, but maybe not much beyond that. The vol at a 59. So almost exactly up one point, almost exactly
(27:01):
identical to the 30 day vol in I bit, which is a 60. So yeah, if you were looking for maybe the
writing on the wall for Bitto, volume wise, not a good sign down 66,000 contracts. But again,
we are in that seasonally quiet period. So I'd be cautious about reading too much into that.
But Greg, what are your thoughts? I think they're starting to come for Bitto as the writing on the
wall, sir. I think Bitto is an interesting product. I hope the writing is not on the wall.
(27:28):
Again, Bitto is a great way to use equities to get exposure to that CME basis. And then obviously,
BittX, my favorite product, which is a 2X Bitto, has two times that exposure. So again, I think
there's a place for trading the basis product. And then there's a place for sort of the cash
(27:49):
product as such as I bit, just like the crypto complex has a lot of spot trading, but it has a
lot of perps and futures trading. And getting access to that stream of funding or the implied
funding is really, really interesting. The Bitto wrinkle is that huge dividend that's
a little bit harder to deal with and model out. But the basis part of it is really interesting.
(28:13):
And obviously, I mentioned here a lot of times, but I like the idea of selling my covered call
on Bitto and owning the I bit as the underlying. Obviously, there's some margin stuff there, but
there's interesting things to be done there. And obviously, the basis is an interesting
product to trade. Speaking of interesting products to trade, Greg, I don't know if they
(28:37):
get much more interesting and or terrifying than your favorite. I've called it the product
for crypto and options degenerates. This is MSTU strap in for this one. Listen, we got we got some
stuff to talk about here with MSTU trading right now as we kicked off the show, a balmy, a whopping
seventeen dollars and twenty five cents. Now, if you're saying to yourself, wait a minute,
(29:01):
wasn't it trading in the one 40s on the show last week? The answer was yes. We are down
about exactly one hundred and twenty three dollars from where we were this time a week ago. Greg,
we were joking about someone selling some puts for about eighteen dollars on the show last week.
You said I might want to buy those. This is just just mad. This is why I said,
(29:22):
listen, as if you're just dipping your toes in the crypto derivatives markets,
do not for the love of God, do not start an MSTU. This product is not for the faint of heart.
It's averaging eleven thousand contracts a day, which is up a thousand on the week. But
that doesn't even sniff what is going on out there today. Listeners, ninety two thousand contracts
(29:47):
going up today in MSTU listeners. The big dog today. Listeners, six thousand two hundred and
forty of the these 20s. These are now with stock has sold off since we started the show down to
sixteen and a half dollars. This thing is like holding grains of sand in your fingers. They just
keep slipping through. This thing is getting annihilated. But nearly over six thousand of the
(30:07):
these 20s have traded this week. Listeners, for prices starting at a buck and down to sixty cents,
let's hope for their sake they're selling these things. Looks like they might have been buying
them unless they were trying to crush the bit all the way down. But wow. And then the eighteen
point six calls as well. That's a great strike. Forty five hundred of those bad boys. This is all
(30:30):
opening paper, by the way, listeners, including a big block of four thousand two hundred and sixty
three going up, lifting the offer for a buck thirty. So it seems like folks were trying to scoop the
low of what they thought was the low when the stock was eighteen thirty a couple hours ago. Guess what?
It's below seventeen now. So you're wearing it on these calls as well. Greg, this is just madness.
(30:51):
I've said it before. This is the product for crypto degenerates. I'm sure we have a lot of
confused listeners right now as to what the hell is going on at MSTU. So let's start there, Greg.
You love this product. You're the one who brought it to the to this show. You're the one who infected
our show with this product. What the heck is going on in MSTU? Yes. The ultimate DGN product.
So, yeah, obviously, over the weekend, we had a stock split split 10 to one. And then over the
(31:18):
weekend or, you know, on Friday going into the weekend, we had the MSTR, which MSTU is the two
times MSTR. We had the approval of micro strategy being added to the NASDAQ 100. So that sent,
you know, the product up a little bit on that news. And now we're in a situation where theoretically
(31:39):
it gets added to NASDAQ 100 on the 23rd of December. But we just, you know, are we in a
sell the news moment? I think that's kind of my thesis here. We had the news event for micro
strategy. And even if spot is not a sell the news event, I do think vol probably is. I think this
(32:01):
was a big vol catalyst for micro strategy. Micro strategy vol is absolutely insane, which
times that by two for MSTU vol. But if I just pull this up real quick, if I look at the realized
volatility for the past four years, you know, the upper 75th percentage child, which is where we are
today for most measurements, call it 21 days, 84 days, 189 days, is at about 110. So that today
(32:27):
we're at about 110 realized vol. And then sort of the median is about call it 75 to 80. So I think,
you know, if we have a little bit of a sell the news event in terms of realized vol, I think we
could see realized vol come down. If we look at the implied vol term structure for micro strategy,
(32:48):
I like micro strategy for just the initial vol analysis, because it's very liquid. But if we
look at, say, the term structure, we have a little bit of a backwardation term structure.
So, you know, we're kind of peaking out at a 60 DTE implied at about 125 vol. And right now,
(33:10):
110 vol is to realize and to realize is a little bit high. And now we just got the catalyst for the,
you know, vol reversion a little bit. So I think that's kind of interesting. So that makes MSTU
an interesting way to play that, because obviously there's two times vol exposure there.
And then in terms of price, I mean, it's a little bit of a tough play, because there's every reason
(33:37):
for price to finally kind of come down on micro strategy and MSTU, because we have 300%
net asset value premium in the equity. We have the company itself selling equity to raise capital to
buy Bitcoin. But really, it's one of those things with the market is pretty enthusiastic around
(33:58):
Bitcoin and therefore around micro strategy and so on and so forth. So it's a little bit of a battle.
But I think the vol peak is behind us for the for the near term to medium term when talking about
micro strategy. So that's not you coming in and gobbling up the D.C. 1860s for this week.
And a buck 30 for those bad boys or up to a buck 60. Some of those, my goodness. Wow.
(34:22):
This thing is just a beast. And by the way, I'm glad we discussed that because I could just see
the letters and emails coming in, Greg. One of my pet peeves, and when there's a big stock split,
and they don't adjust their charts to reflect that I'm looking at some of that while you're
talking, I was looking at some of the the major outlets out there that some of our casual listeners
might use like a Yahoo Finance and a Google. And of course, they just show the stock just falling
(34:43):
out of bed, right? They show it going from 163 on Friday to 17 bucks. And so I just knew the emails
and questions were going to come in. What the hell is going on? So a good time to address that here
on the show. Listen, yes, obviously there was whenever you see stuff like this, chances are,
it's not just well, obviously, stocks can get annihilated, but usually dig into the weeds a
little bit, you will find you will find the specifics. You can also if you are curious
(35:06):
listeners, anything has listed options on it, it's going to be cleared by the OCC. So if you're
confused by something like this, take the ticker and go over to the options clearing Corp, just
OCC and type in the ticker in their search bar. And then you usually will be a circular explaining
all of this. So we'll say, hey, here's what's going on. The stock has been adjusted 10 for one split.
(35:26):
Here's what's going on with your options position. So if you are ever uncertain what's going on with
one of your underlying to see a big move like this, chances are there's some sort of corporate
action, maybe you're missing, and you can go check it out for yourselves. Just type the ticker over
there at the OCC and they will usually set you straight. Let's get out of here on Mera really
quickly. I don't think anything can really hold a candle to MSTU listeners. So we'll burn through
(35:49):
Mera really quickly. 24 and a half right now, up about half a buck. The ADV sub 500, so sub half a
million for the first time in a while. Still a lot of paper. My goodness, Mera also threatening VIX,
even though that's down 44,000 this week as well. Today, it looks like they're threatening it. 417,000
contracts on the tape. The big dog today, by the way, in Mera, 23,000 of the 25 calls expiring this
(36:12):
week, only half a buck out of the money. So clearly rolling the bones there. And the D26 is also
expiring this week. 19,000, almost 20,000 of those also opening there. So some opening upside paper
in Mera. The vol right now, 115, up a whopping 35 points. So Mera looking juicy, also looking
frothy from a vol perspective, as was IVID out there and MSTU just looking completely insane.
(36:36):
So again, not for the faint of heart listeners as we keep on rolling to explore the altcoin universe.
It's time to move beyond Bitcoin and find out what's moving the rest of the crypto marketplace.
It's time to boldly venture into the altcoin universe.
All right, listeners, let's get into it. Usually this is where the madness is on the show,
(37:02):
but MSTU steal a lot of thunder this week. Usually the bottom half of our top 10
and the altcoin universe is where the madness is. And you know, it's still pretty wild out here this
week. We are pretty much treading water on the overall level to break into the top 10,
maybe up slightly. Last week we had Tron at about 25.3 billion. This week, Tron managing to hold on
(37:25):
to the number 10 spot yet again. So kicking all the others to the curb at about 25 and a half
billion worth of market cap. So up slightly on the week. Number nine, we got Cardano 38.6 billion.
Number eight, USD coin, 42 and a half billion. Number seven, it is Doge 59 and a half billion
worth of market cap. Number six, BMB, 104 and a half billion. Number five, our old pal Solana,
(37:49):
104.6 billion. Number four, XRP, 140.8 billion. Number three, it's Tether, 140. This is interesting.
This is actually showing XRP should be above it. So this chart's a little wonky listeners.
So we have a kind of a close tie, what around 140 billion each for Tether and XRP kind of fighting
back and forth the number three and four spot. Number two, you know what it is. It's ETH 486.9
(38:13):
billion and the big dog Bitcoin, new highs mean new levels as well. Over 2 trillion in market cap.
Now just a tick under 2.1 trillion, 2.099 trillion worth of market cap in Bitcoin. My goodness,
listeners. But you know, one of the other narratives we've been talking about on the show,
(38:34):
not just that MSTU is for complete degenerates, but also, you know, what's up with Bitcoin?
What's up with ETH? Why can't it keep pace with everything else? We have seen a little bit of
resurgence over the last few weeks. Seems like the ETH heads are getting that memo,
trying to play a little bit of catch up. I didn't do it this week. Well, ETH back north of 4,000. So
(38:55):
not quite at a new all time high like Bitcoin, but starting to get reminiscent of some of those
levels we saw not that long ago. Few years in the rearview, Mayor 44, 4500. 4,046 was where we were
at the start of the show. Puts us up to 220 handles, some of the 3826 level we were at a week ago.
Mr. Greg, what's catching your eye in the world of ETH, sir?
(39:16):
Yeah. So one of the things that I recently read about and saw in ETH is that a lot of the open
interest, you know, the COT report is showing traders net short futures in Ethereum and there's
a large futures short. And I think one of the things that's very interesting is ETH is a yielding
(39:39):
asset. Bitcoin is not a yielding asset. The ETH futures basis is at around 16 percent,
similar to Bitcoin, but typically yielding assets that the future, the futures term structure would
be more of a back gradation as opposed to a contango because it's meant to mimic that synthetic yield.
(40:01):
And so the way that the futures term structure is right now in Ethereum,
theoretically, you can buy Ethereum and stake Ethereum, earn your 5 percent staking yield,
and then go to the futures market and sell short the future and earn another 16 percent. And so
I think the futures term structure in Ethereum is having a moment of reflection and rebalance.
(40:26):
I think the true catalyst for this to send the term structure into back gradation and essentially
crush the term structure for ETH, we need to see the ETFs, the spot ETF for Ethereum,
start accruing staking yield. The second that happens, investors will be able to buy the spot
(40:50):
Ethereum ETF, earn the yield through the ETF, use the ETF as collateral to short the CME future,
and then I think we see convergence in that spread. And so what I would expect is futures yields
go from positive 16 percent to negative 6 percent-ish, or at least a big drop, maybe not negative 6
(41:14):
percent, but a 6 percent discount to the Bitcoin one at least. And so I think this is what some
early traders are starting to price. So that's pretty interesting. Overall,
ETH has been a big laggard for some of the fundamental reasons we talked about
in the past few episodes about L2s and transactions being done off. L1, off chain,
(41:37):
which is reducing the burn mechanism, and ETH, which flips ETH supply from decreasing to
inflationary and increasing, so on and so forth. So these are kind of the dynamics that are pretty
interesting. For regular traders, how do I take advantage of that? Again, these products like
ETHU, which is a two times ETH ETF that's built on top of the CME futures. It's got a lot of
(42:01):
exposure to that basis, has a lot of exposure to the ETF2X performance drag, things like that.
And obviously, the higher volume ETH, which the ETH term structure is about 10 points
premium to the Bitcoin term structure. So that's another interesting aspect.
I like that. Would you say rest and relaxation for ETH? Was that your terminal? I like that.
(42:23):
Rest and reflection, I think, is what you said. But it makes some sense, given what we're seeing
out here. You mentioned the term structure. Let's go explore it ourselves. Listening is
kind of coming up against it. We already talked a lot about MSTU and all that madness and Bitcoin,
of course. So let's combine the SKU and the vol here. Let's go out on the vol front first,
70 and a half on the weekly vol a week ago, this week, 72 and three quarters. So
(42:43):
getting a little bit frothy. Let's go out on the 30-day vol front. We were at 70 and a quarter this
time a week ago, 69 and a half. So coming in roughly half a point. And going out six months,
listener, 69.7 on the show last week, 72, 65. So get a wee bit frothier here. Maybe it's that
4,000 level makes the ETH folks kind of stroke their chin and say, hmm, on the SKU front listeners,
(43:06):
not a heck of a lot going on the weekly front. We were negative one and a half on the show last week,
negative one and a half today. So re-rack and wait for another week, I suppose. Going out 30
days, 1.3 to the upside last week, positive two this week and going out a whopping six months,
five and three quarters on the ETH front a week ago this week, four and a quarter. So coming in
(43:26):
about a point and a half. Greg, you kind of just mentioned the term structure and ETH, anything
else catching your eye from a vol or SKU perspective right now in the number two crypto asset, sir?
I think the main aspect that I think is kind of interesting here in terms of the term structure
is obviously since we're at a premium to Bitcoin, the market is reflecting that if ETH has a smaller
(43:50):
market cap, ETH has a higher realized small historically, should we get the altcoin rotation?
I think that 10 ballpoint premium is more than justified in terms of relative vol.
But in terms of implied versus realized, the same sort of dynamics exists for ETH as they exist
for Bitcoin, which basically we're trading at a pretty large premium to realize. And I definitely
(44:15):
think that the trend of lower structural vol is as true for ETH as it is for Bitcoin. So keep that in
mind. We will keep that in mind as we roll through some of the other altcoin for this week. Listeners,
Solana, obviously a rival, a contender for the ETH crown, looking a little bit lighter this week,
(44:37):
223 and a quarter last week to 1884 this week down almost four and a half handles on the week.
XRP 242 last week, 247. So it looks like it's back in that kind of treading water range that it was
in for years is two and a half. Roughly the next level we're going to be stuck at an XRP for a while.
We're going to give it up. Are we going to rally ho? Right now lately we've been hanging out back
(45:00):
at this level after hitting higher levels and retreating. Dogecoin 43.4 cents last week,
40.4 cents. So down about three cents. Litecoin 122.40 last week, 120.16 down about two and a
quarter this week. Cardano literally, well, I guess a penny almost literally lunched. 111 last week,
110 today. So not much cooking there. Polkadot 955 last week, 892 this week down 63 cents. And
(45:26):
Greg's favorite, his largest crypto holding Shiba Inu. It was a million zeros, 297 last week this
week, 274. So coming in a wee bit, unfortunately, no crypto lambos for Mr. Greg this week. Mr. Greg,
before we roll on out of here for the show, any other altcoin lighting up your tape or your wallet
this week, sir? I think the last kind of play, which I've talked about a lot, which is the spec
(45:51):
play of, you know, does Dogecoin get added to X as a payments rail? I think that's always kind of a
play out there. And then in terms of different altcoins, there's a lot of restaking coins for
Ethereum. Eigenlayers is something is a protocol that's helped do that. So if you're kind of an
(46:11):
ETH hodler, there's a lot of ways for you to earn staking rewards without going through a staking
process. I think those are interesting avenues to look into. And so yeah, I would take a look at all
that stuff. All right, everybody, that music means we'd come to the end of another wild journey
through the world of crypto. We talked obviously Bitcoin new all time highs. Do we need a strategic
(46:34):
Bitcoin reserve the madness of MSTU, the dis confounding sometimes madness and just frustration
that is ETH and a whole bunch of other fun stuff. Greg, as we're winding down the show here, I just
checked in once again with our audience. We are now at 57.1 percent of listeners say yes and 42.9
saying no. So it is a pretty contentious issue even with our audience. Greg, what do you think?
(46:57):
Yeah, I mean, I understand the arguments on both sides. And it's one of those things where, you
know, if Bitcoin is here to stay, getting a strategic reserve seems like the smartest move
in the entire world. If Bitcoin is a fad and it's 2000 internet bubble status and then we bought
Bitcoin reserve and the thing goes to zero, it looks pretty foolish. So it's definitely a binary
(47:21):
outcome. And I can understand the arguments on both sides. So folks have very heated viewpoints.
Why don't you go ahead and give them your personal cell phone number, Greg, so they can contact you
at 2 a.m. and share their thoughts about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. And while you're at
that, Mr. Greg, where should folks go if they want to check out more of the cool tools you guys have
to offer over there at Amberdata? Yeah, absolutely. So as Mark mentioned earlier, the GUI completely
(47:46):
free for all you listeners. You can look at their charts. You can look at micro strategy,
vol surfaces, I bit order flow, things like that. Please go to pro dot Amberdata dot I.O.
Sign up with an email and you'll have full access to the platform. You can modify it,
save your dashboard, so on and so forth. If you want some more analysis from from our end,
(48:09):
you can go to Amberdata derivatives dot sub stack dot com. And lastly, if you want to visit our
website, Amberdata dot I.O. If you're an institution looking for API access to all the underlying data,
you can get in touch with us. And one of our salespeople will reach out to you guys.
There you go, listeners. If you're listening to this show, that must mean you're curious
(48:32):
about that stuff. Now with the GUI going free, you have literally no reason
not to kick the tires and light the fires. Begin your journey over there. Amberdata dot I.O.
The place to go to learn more. We have to get on out of here. Listeners back again tomorrow
for all you pro folks rolling out the crypto hot seat. Who's going to join us? Well, I guess you
have to find out over there. The options insider dot com slash pro is the place to go to learn more.
(48:56):
Then we're back again with our usual array of content throughout the week. Options boot camp,
the option block, volatility views, all sorts of fun. Until we're back again next Monday,
another episode of the Crypto Rundown. Stay safe out there, everybody.
The Crypto Rundown is brought to you by Amberdata. If you're entering the digital asset class,
(49:18):
you'll need access to granular on-chain and market data from multiple venues to power research,
trading, risk management and compliance. Amberdata delivers comprehensive data and insights into
blockchain networks, crypto markets and decentralized finance, empowering financial institutions to
apply traditional finance methods to digital assets. Amberdata eliminates the infrastructure
(49:41):
setup, integration challenges and maintenance headaches to access digital asset data,
reducing cost and time to market to enter the digital asset class. Learn more and download
their digital asset data guide at www.amberdata.io.
You're listening to the options insider radio network, the home of the options podcast. For
(50:10):
more quality options programs, visit the optionsinsider.com or search for options insider
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(50:41):
Don't forget to follow along with your favorite programs and submit your own questions for the
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(51:07):
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