EP316 - Annual Predictions 2024
Jason visited the Walmart Neighborhood Market in Pea Ridge, Arkansas featuring drone delivery. Here is a video for those interested.
2023 Predictions Recap
Jason:
- At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) Yes
- BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. No
- Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network Yes
- Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. No
- Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US) Yes
Jason Total Score: 3 of 5
Scot:
- Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping. Yes
- Shopify is acquired No
- An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it's adopted and how cool it is. Yes
- E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates. Yes
- Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery. Yes
Scot Total Score: 4 of 5
Trends revert to the mean, and Scot is back on Top!
2024 Predictions
Jason:
- Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network
- AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption.
- Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers)
- China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com.
- Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks).
Bonus: Live-steaming, MetaVerse, Crypto still not a major thing in e-commerce; Management stops blaming performance on retail crime; and Smaller RMN's fail.
Scot:
- Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM
- Temu falters as people realize it's wish 2.0
- RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint)
- Instacart who's stock IPO'd at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40
- While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead – materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out?
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Episode 316 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 11th, 2024.
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
Transcript
Jason:
[0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show. This is episode 316 being recorded on Thursday, January 11th.
I'm your
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