EP323 - 2025 Predictions and NRF Big Show 2025 Recap

The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast.

• 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap
• 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions
• 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions

Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 here

2024 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES
2. AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES
3. Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES
4. China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No
5. Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No

Jason Score: 3.0

Scot:

1. Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No
2. Temu falters as people realize it's wish 2.0 No
3. RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No
4. Instacart who's stock IPO'd at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES
5. While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes

Scot Score: 2.0

In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it?

2025 Predictions

Jason:

1. Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don't happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus.
2. Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take place). Tik Tok Shops is fastest growing $1B+ retailer in 2025.
3. A major auto manufacturer launches a DTC offering in the US in 2025 (other than Tesla).
4. Retail Media Networks undergo consolidation in 2025 as smaller retailers realize they can't go it alone.
5. Live-streaming/VR/Voice Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025. No financial evidence that consumers care about green or purpose driven brand with their wallets.

Bonus: - AI Agents hottest trend in commerce (but I don't know how to measure it)

Scot:

1. Facebook acquires eBay p