EP323 - 2025 Predictions and NRF Big Show 2025 Recap

The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast.

• 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap
• 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions
• 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions

Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 here

2024 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES
2. AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES
3. Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES
4. China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No
5. Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No

Jason Score: 3.0

Scot:

1. Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No
2. Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0 No
3. RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No
4. Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES
5. While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes

Scot Score: 2.0

In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it?

2025 Predictions

Jason:

1. Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don’t happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus.
2. Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take p