The expended edition of this podcast is 80 minutes long. We're sorry, if we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast.
- 0:00 - 27:30 NRF Big Show Recap
- 27:30 - 59:00 Recap of 2024 Predictions
- 59:00 - 80:00 2025 Predictions
Watch a complete recap of NRF Big Show 2025 here
2024 Predictions Recap
Jason:
- Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network YES
- AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption. YES
- Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers) YES
- China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com. No
- Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks). No
Jason Score: 3.0
Scot:
- Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM No
- Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0 No
- RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint) No
- Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40 YES
- While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead - materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out? Yes
Scot Score: 2.0
In a rare upset victory, Jason takes the 2024 predictions crown! But can he keep it?
2025 Predictions
Jason:
- Shein & Temu are NOT impacted by changes to De Minimus (which either don’t happen or are ineffective). They ay be impacted by Tik Top Shops and/or Trade War tarrifs but not by changes to De Minimus.
- Tik Tok is not permanently banned in US (prediction made before scheduled ban was to take place). Tik Tok Shops is fastest growing $1B+ retailer in 2025.
- A major auto manufacturer launches a DTC offering in the US in 2025 (other than Tesla).
- Retail Media Networks undergo consolidation in 2025 as smaller retailers realize they can't go it alone.
- Live-streaming/VR/Voice Commerce are all materially insignificant in 2025. No financial evidence that consumers care about green or purpose driven brand with their wallets.
Bonus: - AI Agents hottest trend in commerce (but I don’t know how to measure it)
Scot:
- Facebook acquires eBay p
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