February 6, 2025 • 38 mins
The episode explores the key insights from the recent SEMI ISS event, focusing on the semiconductor industry's journey toward a trillion-dollar market by 2030. It discusses the significant themes of uncertainty and the transformative impact of AI, while also addressing industry challenges and emerging trends.
Additionally, SEMI's Market Intelligence team dive into the revised 2024 equipment forecast and World Fab Forecast, discussing trends influenced by AI technology and geopolitical factors, especially those linked to China.
As we detail the upswing in equipment sales, driven by Chinese investments and AI progress, we also spotlight the trends shaping both front and back-end equipment markets. From the resurgence of advanced packaging to the anticipated rebound in test equipment, this episode provides a thorough look at the semiconductor industry's current state and its promising future, including insights into the world fab forecast and its implications for the automotive and power sectors.
Highlights:
• Overview of SEMI ISS and its significance in the semiconductor industry
• Highlights on this year's theme: Ready, Set Ramp! and its implications
• Insights on overcoming market uncertainties and challenges
• AI's transformative role in driving semiconductor innovation
• Discussion of upcoming semi events and their importance for networking
• Market intelligence updates on forecasts and growth opportunities
Contact Our Guests on LinkedIn:
- Joe Stockunas, President, SEMI Americas
- Christian Dieseldorf, Senior Analyst, SEMI MIT
- Inna Skvortsova, Market Analyst, SEMI MIT
Discover how technology is reshaping our lives and livelihoods.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Francoise von Trapp (00:00):
This episode of the 3D Insights
podcast is brought to you bySEMI, the leading
microelectronics industryassociation, with programs that
help its members grow theirbusiness and address top
challenges worldwide.
With a global focus on advocacy, the microelectronics supply
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works with industry leaders toalign goals, share best
(00:21):
practices and accelerateprogress.
Learn more at semiorg.
Hi there, I'm Francoise vonTrapp, and this is the 3D
Insights Podcast.
Hi everyone, happy New Year andwelcome to Season 5 of the 3D
(00:50):
Insights Podcast.
We are kicking off 2025 withcoverage of semi-ISS, because
that's always a great way tostart the year.
Now, the event just wrapped upand while I wasn't able to be
there in person this year, I didchat with a few key people who
were there.
(01:10):
So in this episode, we'll betalking about the week's
highlights and key takeawayswith Semi America's President,
joe Stakounas.
We'll also be getting a Semimarket update with members of
Semi's market intelligence team,ines Kvortsova and Christian
Dieseldorf.
So welcome to the podcast,everybody.
Joe Stockunas (01:21):
Thank you, Francoise.
Thank you.
Francoise von Trapp (01:23):
Thank you for having us.
So to the podcast everybody.
Thank you, Francoise.
Thank you.
Thank you for having us.
So let's start out with someintroductions For people who may
just be listening to thepodcast for the first time.
Can you each describe yourroles at SEMI Joe?
Why don't you kick it off?
Joe Stockunas (01:35):
Thank you, Francoise.
Again, I'm Joe Stockunas andI'm the president of SEMI
Americas and I haveresponsibility for SEMI's
activities in North, central andSouth America.
Francoise von Trapp (01:46):
Okay, and Inna.
Inna Skortsova (01:49):
Thank you, Francoise.
I'm a market research analystat SEMI headquarters here and my
primary responsibility istracking semiconductor capital
equipment market, as well aspartially vaporized materials.
I am also managing our SEM sameindustry statistics data
collection programs, which areactually very important and
(02:11):
foundational for our researchand analysis.
Francoise von Trapp (02:14):
Okay, and Christian?
How about you?
Christian Dieseldorf (02:17):
Hi, I'm Christian Dieseldorf and I am
the Senior Principal Analyst.
The senior principal analyst,my responsibility is tracking
and forecasting front-endfacilities activities from
investment capacity,technologies and product types
worldwide.
Okay.
Francoise von Trapp (02:38):
We're going to start off with Joe and talk
about SEMI ISS.
Let's start with the basics.
Why does Semi host this eventeach year?
Joe Stockunas (02:48):
Francoise.
This event's been going on formore than 30 years now.
I attended my first event in1998, and I've been back many
times since then.
It is the great way to startthe year.
We all come back from theholidays energized, having taken
a break, and really excited toexplore and understand what's
(03:10):
ahead for this year.
And that's the focus of thisevent.
It's about forecasting.
So we have a very traditionalformat.
We start off the first sessionon Monday.
We peel the onion, we start offwith a global economist who can
speak to what's expected forglobal GDP this year, and then
we go from there and we explorehow that is going to impact our
(03:34):
market.
So then we have an analystspeak to what's expected this
year in semiconductor revenue,semiconductor inches of silicon
understanding what the marketgrowth looks like this year.
Next presentation is alwaysequipment and it's followed by
materials, and so we get areally good understanding of
(03:54):
what to expect in our market.
Then we spend the next two daysunderstanding what the key
issues and opportunities arethat will affect the market this
year and also out for anothercouple of years, most likely so
the next two years or so.
It is really well received.
It's two and a half days ofexcellent presentations, but
(04:18):
also we really do get a greatrepresentation of industry
leadership and the networkingvalue of this session is equal
to the data that's shared andthe information on market
opportunities and issues.
Francoise von Trapp (04:32):
I was just going to say.
I always enjoy going and itdoes help give a reset,
especially after the holidays,of what we're going to think
about in the coming year andkind of encapsulates it.
Who attends this most of thetime?
Joe Stockunas (04:49):
We get business leaders that's the best way to
describe it.
So it's often folks who areresponsible for a P&L,
responsible for representingwhat to expect in the year.
We get great participation froma content perspective.
We get industry analysts.
We get great participation froma content perspective.
We get industry analysts.
We get Wall Street analysts aswell, and then we often have
(05:11):
technologists and technologyleaders who are sharing what's
going on in the technology worldand how that impacts our market
as well.
It's a really good group offolks who represent the industry
leadership as a whole and verymuch on a global basis.
It's here in the US, but we getgood representation globally.
Francoise von Trapp (05:33):
It really focuses on the business side of
the semiconductor industry, notso much deeply into the
technical engineering side ofthings.
Joe Stockunas (05:42):
By no means we have.
We Advanced SemiconductorManufacturing Conference in May
and that's where that's muchmore focused.
There this is really about themarket and the forecast.
Francoise von Trapp (05:53):
Okay, and there's always a theme, and this
year's theme was Ready FentRamp.
So what were some of the ideasaround that and maybe some of
the subtext for that?
Joe Stockunas (06:05):
Numerous people came up and said we're going to
get to a trillion dollars, andthe consensus right now is we're
going to get to a trilliondollars by 2030.
This concept really was avision of our Ajit Manocha, the
CEO of Semi, and it's like he'sgoing to be right right now.
So then the theme was you know,in the last few years, we've
had a lot of activity with chipsacts around the world and we've
(06:26):
got 102 new fabs that are invarious stages of construction
at this point, and you know.
So ramp is where we're at.
You know, we're getting to thatpoint where we're starting to
see things come together, and Isaw an announcement today where
TSMC will be having their firststate-of-the-art American-made
(06:47):
semiconductors this month.
So it's a good example of thatramp that we're talking about.
Francoise von Trapp (06:51):
And I believe that's happening right
in my backyard here in Arizona,in your backyard in Arizona.
Yeah, it is Okay.
Now, getting to a trilliondollars is no trivial task,
right?
And there was a lot of thingsthat have happened to get us to
that point.
Did they talk at all about someof the remaining headwinds?
(07:11):
What do listeners need to keepin mind for that?
Joe Stockunas (07:14):
So absolutely, it's never been easy in our
market, the technical challenges, the market opportunities.
You know it's very difficult toget a forecast absolutely right
.
I don't think anyone everexpects that.
But they really want tounderstand where the trends are
going and what we need to do tobe successful.
Francoise von Trapp (07:32):
So last year the word of the year for
Semi was unprecedented, and thisyear it's uncertainty.
What do we mean by that?
Joe Stockunas (07:39):
There's a lot going on in the world the trade
tensions with China,uncertainties that we've had to
deal with on supply chain overthe years, the global government
issues that we have gettingtalent that we need those are
the principal issues that we'refocused on At Semi is having a
(08:00):
resilient and reliable supplychain.
It all comes down to that andworking with it.
And then there's also themarket uncertainty.
So you know we had a reallygood growth this year in
semiconductor revenue.
Our number's 22% from semi, andI'll let Ina and Christian
handle that later in thisdiscussion.
But you know that's a reallygood number.
(08:20):
But there's a bit of a mixthere, you know.
So AI is going great and it'sdriving lots of revenue.
It's helping with pickingmemory up out of the dirt after
a very difficult year in memorylast year.
But the rest of the markets arestill kind of slugging along,
not growing at a 9% growth rate,which was what we need from a
Cajun perspective to get to atrillion dollars by 2030.
Francoise von Trapp (08:43):
Okay, so on the flip side, do you think
that any of these headwindscould actually slow us down to
not achieve by 2030?
Or do you think we are still ontrack?
Joe Stockunas (08:54):
2030 is still beyond the firm forecast, but a
really interesting thing.
Let me start with just what weheard each and every day.
So we had three days ofmeetings we just concluded and
each day I heard more than onetime our industry experts were
(09:15):
getting up on the stage to speak.
The message was it's awonderful time to be in
semiconductor.
That was the consistent messagethat we had.
So, again, there's morediversification of our market.
Ai is here.
There was really confident viewthat the market drivers for our
(09:36):
industry are sound and morediverse than we've ever seen and
growth is going to happen.
So that's the most importantpoint, I think that I heard this
week at ISS it's a wonderfultime to be in semiconductors.
For those reasons, it's notgoing to be a walk in the park.
We've got to deal with theseother issues.
(09:57):
We've got to get the workforcedevelopment programs up and
running in the US and around theglobe and compete for talent to
get the very best people intoour industry.
We've got to figure out ways tostrengthen our supply chain and
ensure that it's reliable andresilient and it doesn't impede
our growth.
Francoise von Trapp (10:17):
So that sounds like some of the key
takeaways, then, from thekeynotes that you were just
talking about?
Joe Stockunas (10:23):
Yes, just a couple more takeaways AI being
the most transformationalbusiness opportunity we've seen
in 50 years Key takeaway.
But then a few of the analystspointed to we really don't know
how big AI is going to be.
Two of the analysts thatpresented provided upsides.
The upsides were 13% and, togive you some feel for that,
(10:47):
that would be by 2028, we'd beat $1.1 trillion in
semiconductor sales by 2028.
So really exciting forecastgoing forward.
Francoise von Trapp (10:58):
And I guess some of this isn't just because
it's being volume driven, it'salso value driven by the price
of these wafers, and the priceof these chips are so much
higher that you need less ofthem to reach that trillion
dollar in revenue.
Joe Stockunas (11:11):
That could discuss.
But again, there's the breadthof market.
Truly, the AI chips are part ofthat, but we'll also need
communication chips.
You're going to need memory,You're going to need a host of
chips and the view was thatwe've got 102 fabs currently in
various stages of constructioncoming on board.
We'll need another 22 to 26 ifthis forecast holds and the
(11:36):
upside forecast holds.
But to your point, we are at atransition point again here
where a wafer is not a wafer, Awafer that goes into AI.
Today, an advanced AIprocessing chip, a GPU if you
will.
That wafer is worth a half amillion dollars and it has
(11:57):
probably 20 to 25 chips for eachwafer.
In contrast, an advanced nodewafer that's producing chips for
a smartphone, it's going toyield about 300 chips but only
have a value of $30,000.
(12:17):
So again, a wafer is no longera wafer.
Francoise von Trapp (12:20):
Right, okay , so I just wanted to get input
on two things.
One would be the packagingpanel, and for our audience it's
very interesting that the topicis meeting the demands of
scaling.
Is hybrid bonding the answer?
Do you have anything to addabout that?
Joe Stockunas (12:39):
It really became apparent last summer at SEMICON
West that advanced packaging hasbeen the future for quite some
time.
Advanced packaging is now.
It's very apparent.
We had four wonderfulparticipants.
We had design folks, we hadend-use folks.
They illustrated just the valueof hybrid bonding.
(13:01):
They also illustrated just howdifficult it is to do.
There are lots of engineeringissues associated with it, but
it is really a breakthrough andwill really help, especially in
supporting the AI marketplace.
So they also made the point thatthere's still plenty of room
for growth in monolithic chips.
So I think that's what you hearthat the hybrid bonding has
(13:22):
really strong advantages as welook to go to 3D stacking and
that was another point that wasmade was that you know it's 3D
around the board right now.
So you know, for advanced logic, we're, of course, going with
3D chips and you know gate allaround coming around the corner,
and then, of course, for memory, it's all about three
(13:43):
dimensions.
We're at 200 layers and goingto 1,000.
And again, from an advancedpackaging standpoint, it's truly
getting to not 2.5D but 3D, andhybrid bonding's a very capable
technology to solve thoseproblems.
Francoise von Trapp (13:59):
Well, here at 3D InCites, we've been
following that for our wholeexistence, so it's pretty
exciting to see hybrid bondingand 3D stacking starting to get
the attention it deserves and tobe in the forefront, so we're
super excited about that.
Joe Stockunas (14:13):
One more thought, if I may, on.
A number of the speakers talkedabout just how much
collaboration is required atthis point.
So it is really interesting tosee how much collaboration is
taking place to advance ourtechnologies.
We had a wonderful presentationby Prabhu Raga of Applied
Materials and he gave theexample that we are now at a
(14:36):
point where we're able toengineer the use of five
different materials in a 10nanometer space.
But then he went on to list howapplied materials works with
their customers, with academiaand even with their competitors
to ensure that thesetechnologies can be co-optimized
and the chips produced.
(14:57):
So really interesting to see.
We're very proud of ourposition in the industry at Semi
on how we really promotecollaboration across the
industry and probably just did agreat job of really bringing
that forward as to how importantcollaboration is today in our
industry as we go forward andgrow.
Francoise von Trapp (15:17):
Semi's got a new event you wanted to talk
about.
Joe Stockunas (15:19):
We're really excited.
It's a Semi Expo so it's kindof a mini Semi's got a new event
you wanted to talk about.
We're really excited.
It's a Semi Expo, so it's kindof a mini SemiCon.
Last year SemiCon we had 30,000people show up this event.
This week we had a bit over 300.
So this will be kind of in themiddle.
We're expecting 1,500 to 2,000people in Indianapolis on April
(15:41):
1st and 2nd.
There's a lot going on in theMidwest.
We're calling it Semi-ExpoHeartland and we're plowing some
new fields here in theheartland of the United States.
Lots of activity, excitement inthe Midwest and also
opportunity.
So automotive electronics isone of those key.
Again that market diversity Italked about Implementation of
(16:02):
machine learning and AItechniques in manufacturing and
those two markets.
An awful lot of what happens inmanufacturing automotive
happens in the Midwest.
So we're taking Semi and ourindustry into the Midwest to
help develop those markets andreally excited, into the Midwest
to help develop those marketsand really excited.
We've got the governor ofIndiana coming to kick it off
(16:30):
and tremendous support fromfolks across the Midwest.
You know Indiana is our firstlocation but we really have
great partnership with theMidwest states as a whole who
are really excited about growingsemiconductor in their space as
well.
Okay, and what about SemiconWest A little bit of change,
Bringing it to Phoenix into yourbackyard, Francois.
Francoise von Trapp (16:49):
Yep Looking forward to it.
Joe Stockunas (16:51):
First time we're changing venues since, I think,
1990.
So it's been quite some time,but there's just so much
activity in Phoenix, so over$100 billion worth of investment
going on in Phoenix.
It makes sense to share thevenue for Semicon West between
Phoenix and San Francisco.
(17:12):
So we'll be back and forth eachyear and we are off to an
unbelievable start in Phoenix.
So the show floor was sold outbefore the end of 24, more than
10 months in advance.
We've got a great exhibitionfloor, we have great content.
We'll have over 400 speakers inthree days at SemiCon West, and
(17:32):
so the last thing I'm focusedon this year is I also want to
bring some celebration toSemiWest.
So we're going to do somethings.
Phoenix has the conventioncenter, has an outdoor space
that we can use to have someparties in the evening too, so
we're looking forward to that aswell.
Francoise von Trapp (17:47):
Should be great.
Joe Stockunas (17:48):
Thank you, I agree All right, thank you, okay
.
Francoise von Trapp (17:52):
So let's shift gears and we're going to
talk with our marketintelligence team, ina
Skvortsova and ChristianDieseldorf.
So, ina, let's start with you.
Semi just released its globalequipment forecast and you're
estimating a record sales of$139 billion for 2026.
Inna Skortsova (18:11):
Yes, françois, we are actually projecting three
years of consecutive growthagain for capital equipment
market, after we had just a mildcontraction or correction,
better to say in 2023.
So, effectively, by 2026, theequipment market is expected to
approach 140 billion mark, newindustry record, and with that,
(18:36):
I think, the capital intensityis remaining high, and and it's
for an 18% range of similarrevenues.
Francoise von Trapp (18:44):
Yeah, I imagine, with all of those new
fabs coming online, that'swhat's driving this equipment
growth.
Inna Skortsova (18:51):
Well, there are various factors.
In addition to capacityadditions that are coming from
the new fabs, there are veryhealthy drivers, including AI.
That was practically the topicof the ISS conference.
So, yes, there are a number offactors impacting the growth and
our projections.
We actually revised our 2024equipment forecast slightly and
(19:16):
adjusted 25 and 26 accordingly,based on the current market
conditions, and it's actuallyinteresting stories.
There are two vectors of thegrowth.
Some of it is technology-drivenand AI-driven, and another is
more on the geopolitical side.
Francoise von Trapp (19:34):
Okay, how so with the geopolitical?
Inna Skortsova (19:36):
side, china is a major factor.
So, for example I justmentioned, we changed our
forecast for 2024 for equipmentand we are finishing actually a
little higher than previouslyexpected Now at 6.5% growth over
, with a total reaching 112billion, and this upward
(19:57):
revision reflects stronger thanpreviously expected sales to
China that those investmentswere very, very significant.
We also saw a pickup ininvestments to support the AI.
If you look at 2023 and almostall 2024, we can say that China
is much bigger than AI for theequipment market, I mean say
(20:21):
that China is much bigger thanAI for the equipment market.
Francoise von Trapp (20:23):
I mean, your forecast covers both front
and back end equipment and we'refocused mostly in the advanced
packaging space.
Can you talk a little bit aboutthe breakdown between front and
back end and about the recoveryin the back end?
Inna Skortsova (20:36):
Oh yeah, of course.
Looking in general at theportal, VafaF, fab equipment
market, we expect 5% growth,reaching 101 billion this year,
and this is a little bit higheragain than what we expected.
And our forecast for 2025 isfor market to reach 108 billion,
(20:57):
growing 6% comparing to 2024.
And that is a little bit lowerthan we expected six months ago.
Some projects slowed down andwere pushed out to 2026.
There is some shift in dynamicsin the forecast, but if we
start with the foundry logicequipment standings, start with
(21:18):
the foundry logic equipmentspendings.
These remain stable comparingto 2023 level, reaching about 60
billion, and we expect onlysmall increase of 3% in 2025.
(21:38):
But the composition of thespendings will be different,
Pivoting to the memory equipmentspending for these and coming
years.
Dram spending expected tofinish the 2024 year we're still
finalizing with very healthy35% growth, followed by another
10% growth in 2025.
This growth will come from,obviously, investments in high
(22:01):
bandwidth memory and some of thecapacity additions for DRAM.
That will continue in 2026.
Dram will see both technologyand capacity-driven demand and
equipment spending.
On the other hand, non-flashequipment market we expect 2024
to finish soft, pretty much flat.
(22:21):
Comparing to prior year, 2025,we'll see a huge increase 48%,
but that is just coming from thelower base of 2024.
Now I understand the audienceis very interested in the
back-end equipment.
Let me start from test equipmentfirst.
In the first half of 2024, testequipment segment was pretty
(22:46):
soft comparing to 2023.
And we only started to seeincreases in tests just closer
to pretty much in the thirdquarter and that was because of
the quick surge in demand for arelated test.
That demand will continue.
That demand will only bestronger in 25 and 26 and we
(23:09):
expect very healthy growth forthe test for system on a chip
related test.
There is some softness and thatis generally because of the
soft consumer electronics andautomotive and industrial
segments.
But we expect that to improvegoing forward, Effectively going
forward.
We see a huge demand in testsrelated for HBM and complexity
(23:34):
of tests and type of tests forthat, With that memory test,
we'll see a steady recovery.
And complexity of tests andtype of tests for that, With
that memory test, we'll see asteady recovery.
It will see steady recovery interms of already sees a recovery
in terms of utilization ratesand in terms of new orders, and
that will continue.
Most of the investments will befocused on high-end memory,
(23:57):
especially for DDR5 and HPMs, asI mentioned earlier.
Francoise von Trapp (24:02):
What I wanted to know was about the
recovery in the back end andwhat's driving that.
So we know that there's a lotof growth in the advanced
packaging space, so I can onlyassume that this is what is
driving the growth there.
Inna Skortsova (24:14):
Yeah, definitely that is one of the growth
drivers and you're correct.
Like, if you look at 2023, itwas the lowest point in terms of
the investments in the pastfive years in assembly and
packaging, but we see the demandfor packaging coming back and
coming back, starting 2024.
And that will continue in thenext two years.
(24:36):
Again, advanced packaging thatis related to 2.5 and 3D
technology, for what most of itcovers, and HBM technology these
are the areas where we see themost investments, especially for
the technologies likedeployment of technologies like
(24:57):
hybrid bonding that werediscussed today or yesterday at
ISS panel.
Also, thermal compressionbonding.
Those are the areas of actualstrong growth in assembling
packaging equipment segment, inaddition to traditional needs
for classic packaging.
Francoise von Trapp (25:18):
Okay, now I think we should move over to
Christian to talk about theworld fab forecast that was just
released, and it wasinteresting because Joe just
mentioned, I think, 108 fabs inconstruction, but the new
forecast is focused on 18 newcommercial fabs.
Is this because they're juststarting construction in 2025?
Christian Dieseldorf (25:39):
Yeah right , so the 18 is fabs which we
estimate will start constructionthis year.
Joe was referring to any fabswhich are still in construction.
These construction phases cantake a long time, up to two
years, two to three years even,pending on region and the size
(25:59):
of the fab itself.
Francoise von Trapp (26:02):
Okay, so let's talk about these fabs.
Where are they going to belocated?
Christian Dieseldorf (26:08):
Pretty much all over the world and I
need to say it's very trickymaking this forecast 18.
So don't get stuck on 18,because this number can change
next week.
Francoise von Trapp (26:21):
Right.
Christian Dieseldorf (26:21):
Okay, if a company, let's say Micron, is
among one of those, micron andClay if they decide they don't
start construction by the end of2025, then the number goes down
to 17.
Okay, right, and so this couldchange, could go down to 14, or
could go down, could go even upto 20, depending what it is, and
(26:45):
these are fabs of all differentsizes.
So we have three 8-inch fabs,the rest are all 12-inch, and
they start with 5,000 wafers permonth, which is the smallest
one, up to over 100,000 wafersper month.
Francoise von Trapp (27:06):
You talked about 8-inch or 200-millimeter
wafer fabs.
Well, is it unprecedented thatthere would be three new
200-millimeter fabs included inthis?
Christian Dieseldorf (27:16):
200 millimeter fabs included in this
?
No, no, not really, in fact.
So in last year we had four.
In 2023, we had 10.
Okay, and in 2022, we had seven.
So in 2025, or so you can see,the number goes down, but again,
(27:37):
the number can change.
I expect the number to go upeven, and one reason is because
of power SIC technology.
A lot of companies are movingfrom six inch 150 millimeter to
eight inch 200 millimeter theSIC products.
Power is one of the drivingforces behind all these fabs, as
Joe mentioned forces behind allthese fabs, as Joe mentioned AI
(27:59):
, for example.
Ai uses a huge amount of powerand we also have electrification
going on.
We have IoT Don't forget aboutIoT and other technologies and
then we have all the datacenters.
They need memory, they needpower and so on.
So I expect some more 8-inchFABs, new 8-inch FABs to be
(28:26):
built, and if they can't buildnew 8-inch FABs because it costs
more money, they are convertinga 6-inch FAB, 150-millimeter
FAB, to 8-inch, and we see thatas well.
But some of these six-inch fabsare so old that they don't
qualify to be converted, to beready for 200-millimeter
(28:48):
equipment.
So then the company has tobuild a new fab.
Francoise von Trapp (28:52):
That's really interesting because I
hadn't thought about theincrease in 200 millimeter,
because the volume is drivingthe products from the 150 up to
200.
And I also think about thedifferent materials.
I mean, when it comes to powersemiconductors, there's a lot of
different materials thansilicon.
(29:14):
You know, the compoundsemiconductors are usually at
those smaller wafer sizes.
Christian Dieseldorf (29:27):
Is there a possibility that that could
ever be at 300 millimeter?
So one contentor to SIC,silicon carbide, for example, is
gallium nitride, right.
So gallium nitride you probablysee that more on sixinch or 150
millimeter, 200 millimeter, butInfineon, for example, they
just have qualified galliumnitride on 300 millimeter.
(29:47):
There was an announcement madein September of last year, which
is incredible, and, as Joe saidbefore, a wafer is not a wafer
anymore.
That's so true because you havechips of various sizes.
Some of them use leading edgetechnology, which requires EUV
(30:08):
or extreme EUV, and others arefor mature technologies where
you can build with feature sizesabove 22 nanometer.
Francoise von Trapp (30:20):
Okay, okay, that makes sense.
You know, one of the thingsthat a lot of OEMs have been
focused on is their newprocesses designed for 300
millimeter, and one of thethings I always hear about is
how the 200 millimeter toolshaven't been kept up to date
with process technology.
And then there's also a demandfor secondary 200 millimeter
(30:43):
equipment.
So how is this expansionimpacting the OEM side of things
?
Christian Dieseldorf (30:49):
The 200 millimeter used equipment market
is pretty much dried out.
So there's really not much.
I think it dried out quite afew years back.
There's really not much.
I think it died out quite a fewyears back.
So OEMs are starting to makenew 200 millimeter equipment
with the specificationsrequirements which fit a 300
(31:12):
millimeter tool.
So these are leading edge.
But the question is how muchmoney?
How much money do you want toinvest as an OEM into 200
millimeter when there are rightnow only three new fabs starting
construction potentially, ifthey are not pushed out?
So you need to look at themarket.
I don't see the investment tobe huge, but I hear that this
(31:35):
equipment, the new equipment, isbeing built.
Francoise von Trapp (31:40):
Okay, so even the you said last year
there were two and the yearbefore that there were 10.
Yeah, are those of all, andthose have all completed
construction and ramped tomanufacturing.
Christian Dieseldorf (31:57):
No, not all of them, uh, but in 23 we
had 10, okay, which was a yearwhere we had most of 200
millimeter for a long time, uh,and last year we had four.
So these are smaller fabs.
It doesn't take two years tobuild them until ready for
production, and so it takesmaybe one year, one and a half
(32:19):
years again, depending where youare.
Some of them have started, someof them have not, and the power
the automotive and powerindustry right now is a little
bit slow, but I hear automotivemarket is slow and I hear
companies are pushing out theirplans so they may have the FAB
(32:41):
and concrete is very patient,right.
So you can build your FAB andthen you try to get your CHIP-AC
funding for it first of all, ifyou can.
Then you have the FAB ready andthen you start equipping
pending market, and right now wesee that being pushed out and
slowed down because of thesituation we have pending market
, and right now we see thatbeing pushed out and slowed down
because of the situation wehave Okay so for OEMs it's good
(33:06):
news, but it might not be thisyear that they get those tool
orders.
Well, those, some of theseperhaps, which started
construction in 2310, again,they, they may still be
equipping, okay, right.
And the OEMs, they know, I meanthere are not so many out there
If there's a really new fabbeing built, they know I don't
(33:31):
expect it to be a huge spike.
And then, don't forget, thereare older fabs, 150 millimeter,
where 200 millimeter equipmentis being moved in so that
transition slowly to largerwafer size, if the fab, the
facility, is qualified to dothat.
So I wouldn't call it a hugespike or this great thing which
(33:55):
will happen for the OEMs.
It's a more suppressedsituation we have right now.
Francoise von Trapp (34:00):
Okay, well, I think that's super helpful
and interesting, but we do haveto wrap it up, so tell me about
new reports that listenersshould be on the lookout for
from the SEMI MIT team.
Christian Dieseldorf (34:16):
So we have quite a few reports forecast.
So I do forecast the WorldFabforecast.
The next update will bepublished early March and if you
don't want to wait, you cansubscribe to our FabView where
you have access 24 seven to thedatabase.
Let's say I make a change intoone of the fabs, like Micron and
(34:37):
Clay or Global Foundries in NewYork, they can see it right
away.
That's FAB view.
And then at the same time wehave our 300 millimeter report
and 200 millimeter report, whichis a forecast which goes to
2028 and to 2030 with anextended edition.
Francoise von Trapp (34:56):
Okay, that's really cool that they can
get information in real timethat you're adjusting things on
the fly, you know it is great,but if I make a mistake, they
also see the mistake.
Oh well, we all make mistakes,don't we?
Christian Dieseldorf (35:13):
Yeah, we do, but I think I get caught.
Yeah, you still need to becareful.
You want to make sure whateveryou enter into the database is
solid.
Francoise von Trapp (35:23):
That's the beauty of editing.
So no, I get it, ina.
Inna Skortsova (35:25):
what new reports do you think listeners should
be on the lookout for In thefirst quarter of this year we
are publishing our EMDSEquipment Market Data
Subscription Refresh, where weactually provide a deep dive
into the forecast that I justmentioned.
We also going to finalize 2024and, on the material side, we
(35:50):
are preparing to publish ourmaterials market data
subscription report, which willextend the forecast for both
wafer farm materials andpackaging materials through 2026
.
I think those are the keyreports that might be of
interest to your audience andglobal audience.
Francoise von Trapp (36:10):
Okay, all right.
Well, I want to thank you allfor joining me today and it's
been great to talk to you, and Ikind of feel sad that I wasn't
there in person, but we'll tryto make it next year.
Christian Dieseldorf (36:21):
Thank you, Francoise.
Francoise von Trapp (36:22):
Thank you, Francoise.
Where should people go to findout more?
Christian Dieseldorf (36:25):
Our website semiorg.
Inna Skortsova (36:29):
Slash.
Francoise von Trapp (36:31):
Market Intelligence.
There we go, okay, thanks somuch and take care.
Thank you for having us.
Thanks so much and take care.
Inna Skortsova (36:38):
Thank, you for having us.
Francoise von Trapp (36:42):
Next time on the 3D Insights podcast, I'll
be speaking with the organizersof this year's IMAPS Device
Packaging Conference to find outwhat's in store for this year's
event and what the key topicswill be.
You'll hear from General ChairAmy Lujan about this year's
keynotes and technology tracks.
Co-chair of the GeneralBusiness Council, tim Olson
talks about this year's keynotesand technology tracks.
Co-chair of the GeneralBusiness Council, tim Olson
talks about this year's focus onAI for high-performance
(37:03):
computing and data centers, andTech Search's Jan Vardaman gives
a glimpse of the paneldiscussion she'll be leading
that has the provocative titlePreparing for the Coming AI
Winter.
Be sure to follow us on yourpreferred podcast app to get
automatic downloads of thelatest episodes.
Thanks for listening.
There's lots more to come, sotune in next time to the 3D
(37:24):
Insights Podcast.
The 3D Insights Podcast is aproduction of 3D Insights LLC.
This episode of the 3D Insights
podcast is brought to you bySEMI, the leading
microelectronics industryassociation, with programs that
help its members grow theirbusiness and address top
challenges worldwide.
With a global focus on advocacy, the microelectronics supply
chain, sustainability andworkforce development, semi
works with industry leaders toalign goals, share best
(00:21):
practices and accelerateprogress.
Learn more at semiorg.
Hi there, I'm Francoise vonTrapp, and this is the 3D
Insights Podcast.
Hi everyone, happy New Year andwelcome to Season 5 of the 3D
(00:50):
Insights Podcast.
We are kicking off 2025 withcoverage of semi-ISS, because
that's always a great way tostart the year.
Now, the event just wrapped upand while I wasn't able to be
there in person this year, I didchat with a few key people who
were there.
(01:10):
So in this episode, we'll betalking about the week's
highlights and key takeawayswith Semi America's President,
joe Stakounas.
We'll also be getting a Semimarket update with members of
Semi's market intelligence team,ines Kvortsova and Christian
Dieseldorf.
So welcome to the podcast,everybody.
Joe Stockunas (01:21):
Thank you, Francoise.
Thank you.
Francoise von Trapp (01:23):
Thank you for having us.
So to the podcast everybody.
Thank you, Francoise.
Thank you.
Thank you for having us.
So let's start out with someintroductions For people who may
just be listening to thepodcast for the first time.
Can you each describe yourroles at SEMI Joe?
Why don't you kick it off?
Joe Stockunas (01:35):
Thank you, Francoise.
Again, I'm Joe Stockunas andI'm the president of SEMI
Americas and I haveresponsibility for SEMI's
activities in North, central andSouth America.
Francoise von Trapp (01:46):
Okay, and Inna.
Inna Skortsova (01:49):
Thank you, Francoise.
I'm a market research analystat SEMI headquarters here and my
primary responsibility istracking semiconductor capital
equipment market, as well aspartially vaporized materials.
I am also managing our SEM sameindustry statistics data
collection programs, which areactually very important and
(02:11):
foundational for our researchand analysis.
Francoise von Trapp (02:14):
Okay, and Christian?
How about you?
Christian Dieseldorf (02:17):
Hi, I'm Christian Dieseldorf and I am
the Senior Principal Analyst.
The senior principal analyst,my responsibility is tracking
and forecasting front-endfacilities activities from
investment capacity,technologies and product types
worldwide.
Okay.
Francoise von Trapp (02:38):
We're going to start off with Joe and talk
about SEMI ISS.
Let's start with the basics.
Why does Semi host this eventeach year?
Joe Stockunas (02:48):
Francoise.
This event's been going on formore than 30 years now.
I attended my first event in1998, and I've been back many
times since then.
It is the great way to startthe year.
We all come back from theholidays energized, having taken
a break, and really excited toexplore and understand what's
(03:10):
ahead for this year.
And that's the focus of thisevent.
It's about forecasting.
So we have a very traditionalformat.
We start off the first sessionon Monday.
We peel the onion, we start offwith a global economist who can
speak to what's expected forglobal GDP this year, and then
we go from there and we explorehow that is going to impact our
(03:34):
market.
So then we have an analystspeak to what's expected this
year in semiconductor revenue,semiconductor inches of silicon
understanding what the marketgrowth looks like this year.
Next presentation is alwaysequipment and it's followed by
materials, and so we get areally good understanding of
(03:54):
what to expect in our market.
Then we spend the next two daysunderstanding what the key
issues and opportunities arethat will affect the market this
year and also out for anothercouple of years, most likely so
the next two years or so.
It is really well received.
It's two and a half days ofexcellent presentations, but
(04:18):
also we really do get a greatrepresentation of industry
leadership and the networkingvalue of this session is equal
to the data that's shared andthe information on market
opportunities and issues.
Francoise von Trapp (04:32):
I was just going to say.
I always enjoy going and itdoes help give a reset,
especially after the holidays,of what we're going to think
about in the coming year andkind of encapsulates it.
Who attends this most of thetime?
Joe Stockunas (04:49):
We get business leaders that's the best way to
describe it.
So it's often folks who areresponsible for a P&L,
responsible for representingwhat to expect in the year.
We get great participation froma content perspective.
We get industry analysts.
We get great participation froma content perspective.
We get industry analysts.
We get Wall Street analysts aswell, and then we often have
(05:11):
technologists and technologyleaders who are sharing what's
going on in the technology worldand how that impacts our market
as well.
It's a really good group offolks who represent the industry
leadership as a whole and verymuch on a global basis.
It's here in the US, but we getgood representation globally.
Francoise von Trapp (05:33):
It really focuses on the business side of
the semiconductor industry, notso much deeply into the
technical engineering side ofthings.
Joe Stockunas (05:42):
By no means we have.
We Advanced SemiconductorManufacturing Conference in May
and that's where that's muchmore focused.
There this is really about themarket and the forecast.
Francoise von Trapp (05:53):
Okay, and there's always a theme, and this
year's theme was Ready FentRamp.
So what were some of the ideasaround that and maybe some of
the subtext for that?
Joe Stockunas (06:05):
Numerous people came up and said we're going to
get to a trillion dollars, andthe consensus right now is we're
going to get to a trilliondollars by 2030.
This concept really was avision of our Ajit Manocha, the
CEO of Semi, and it's like he'sgoing to be right right now.
So then the theme was you know,in the last few years, we've
had a lot of activity with chipsacts around the world and we've
(06:26):
got 102 new fabs that are invarious stages of construction
at this point, and you know.
So ramp is where we're at.
You know, we're getting to thatpoint where we're starting to
see things come together, and Isaw an announcement today where
TSMC will be having their firststate-of-the-art American-made
(06:47):
semiconductors this month.
So it's a good example of thatramp that we're talking about.
Francoise von Trapp (06:51):
And I believe that's happening right
in my backyard here in Arizona,in your backyard in Arizona.
Yeah, it is Okay.
Now, getting to a trilliondollars is no trivial task,
right?
And there was a lot of thingsthat have happened to get us to
that point.
Did they talk at all about someof the remaining headwinds?
(07:11):
What do listeners need to keepin mind for that?
Joe Stockunas (07:14):
So absolutely, it's never been easy in our
market, the technical challenges, the market opportunities.
You know it's very difficult toget a forecast absolutely right
.
I don't think anyone everexpects that.
But they really want tounderstand where the trends are
going and what we need to do tobe successful.
Francoise von Trapp (07:32):
So last year the word of the year for
Semi was unprecedented, and thisyear it's uncertainty.
What do we mean by that?
Joe Stockunas (07:39):
There's a lot going on in the world the trade
tensions with China,uncertainties that we've had to
deal with on supply chain overthe years, the global government
issues that we have gettingtalent that we need those are
the principal issues that we'refocused on At Semi is having a
(08:00):
resilient and reliable supplychain.
It all comes down to that andworking with it.
And then there's also themarket uncertainty.
So you know we had a reallygood growth this year in
semiconductor revenue.
Our number's 22% from semi, andI'll let Ina and Christian
handle that later in thisdiscussion.
But you know that's a reallygood number.
(08:20):
But there's a bit of a mixthere, you know.
So AI is going great and it'sdriving lots of revenue.
It's helping with pickingmemory up out of the dirt after
a very difficult year in memorylast year.
But the rest of the markets arestill kind of slugging along,
not growing at a 9% growth rate,which was what we need from a
Cajun perspective to get to atrillion dollars by 2030.
Francoise von Trapp (08:43):
Okay, so on the flip side, do you think
that any of these headwindscould actually slow us down to
not achieve by 2030?
Or do you think we are still ontrack?
Joe Stockunas (08:54):
2030 is still beyond the firm forecast, but a
really interesting thing.
Let me start with just what weheard each and every day.
So we had three days ofmeetings we just concluded and
each day I heard more than onetime our industry experts were
(09:15):
getting up on the stage to speak.
The message was it's awonderful time to be in
semiconductor.
That was the consistent messagethat we had.
So, again, there's morediversification of our market.
Ai is here.
There was really confident viewthat the market drivers for our
(09:36):
industry are sound and morediverse than we've ever seen and
growth is going to happen.
So that's the most importantpoint, I think that I heard this
week at ISS it's a wonderfultime to be in semiconductors.
For those reasons, it's notgoing to be a walk in the park.
We've got to deal with theseother issues.
(09:57):
We've got to get the workforcedevelopment programs up and
running in the US and around theglobe and compete for talent to
get the very best people intoour industry.
We've got to figure out ways tostrengthen our supply chain and
ensure that it's reliable andresilient and it doesn't impede
our growth.
Francoise von Trapp (10:17):
So that sounds like some of the key
takeaways, then, from thekeynotes that you were just
talking about?
Joe Stockunas (10:23):
Yes, just a couple more takeaways AI being
the most transformationalbusiness opportunity we've seen
in 50 years Key takeaway.
But then a few of the analystspointed to we really don't know
how big AI is going to be.
Two of the analysts thatpresented provided upsides.
The upsides were 13% and, togive you some feel for that,
(10:47):
that would be by 2028, we'd beat $1.1 trillion in
semiconductor sales by 2028.
So really exciting forecastgoing forward.
Francoise von Trapp (10:58):
And I guess some of this isn't just because
it's being volume driven, it'salso value driven by the price
of these wafers, and the priceof these chips are so much
higher that you need less ofthem to reach that trillion
dollar in revenue.
Joe Stockunas (11:11):
That could discuss.
But again, there's the breadthof market.
Truly, the AI chips are part ofthat, but we'll also need
communication chips.
You're going to need memory,You're going to need a host of
chips and the view was thatwe've got 102 fabs currently in
various stages of constructioncoming on board.
We'll need another 22 to 26 ifthis forecast holds and the
(11:36):
upside forecast holds.
But to your point, we are at atransition point again here
where a wafer is not a wafer, Awafer that goes into AI.
Today, an advanced AIprocessing chip, a GPU if you
will.
That wafer is worth a half amillion dollars and it has
(11:57):
probably 20 to 25 chips for eachwafer.
In contrast, an advanced nodewafer that's producing chips for
a smartphone, it's going toyield about 300 chips but only
have a value of $30,000.
(12:17):
So again, a wafer is no longera wafer.
Francoise von Trapp (12:20):
Right, okay , so I just wanted to get input
on two things.
One would be the packagingpanel, and for our audience it's
very interesting that the topicis meeting the demands of
scaling.
Is hybrid bonding the answer?
Do you have anything to addabout that?
Joe Stockunas (12:39):
It really became apparent last summer at SEMICON
West that advanced packaging hasbeen the future for quite some
time.
Advanced packaging is now.
It's very apparent.
We had four wonderfulparticipants.
We had design folks, we hadend-use folks.
They illustrated just the valueof hybrid bonding.
(13:01):
They also illustrated just howdifficult it is to do.
There are lots of engineeringissues associated with it, but
it is really a breakthrough andwill really help, especially in
supporting the AI marketplace.
So they also made the point thatthere's still plenty of room
for growth in monolithic chips.
So I think that's what you hearthat the hybrid bonding has
(13:22):
really strong advantages as welook to go to 3D stacking and
that was another point that wasmade was that you know it's 3D
around the board right now.
So you know, for advanced logic, we're, of course, going with
3D chips and you know gate allaround coming around the corner,
and then, of course, for memory, it's all about three
(13:43):
dimensions.
We're at 200 layers and goingto 1,000.
And again, from an advancedpackaging standpoint, it's truly
getting to not 2.5D but 3D, andhybrid bonding's a very capable
technology to solve thoseproblems.
Francoise von Trapp (13:59):
Well, here at 3D InCites, we've been
following that for our wholeexistence, so it's pretty
exciting to see hybrid bondingand 3D stacking starting to get
the attention it deserves and tobe in the forefront, so we're
super excited about that.
Joe Stockunas (14:13):
One more thought, if I may, on.
A number of the speakers talkedabout just how much
collaboration is required atthis point.
So it is really interesting tosee how much collaboration is
taking place to advance ourtechnologies.
We had a wonderful presentationby Prabhu Raga of Applied
Materials and he gave theexample that we are now at a
(14:36):
point where we're able toengineer the use of five
different materials in a 10nanometer space.
But then he went on to list howapplied materials works with
their customers, with academiaand even with their competitors
to ensure that thesetechnologies can be co-optimized
and the chips produced.
(14:57):
So really interesting to see.
We're very proud of ourposition in the industry at Semi
on how we really promotecollaboration across the
industry and probably just did agreat job of really bringing
that forward as to how importantcollaboration is today in our
industry as we go forward andgrow.
Francoise von Trapp (15:17):
Semi's got a new event you wanted to talk
about.
Joe Stockunas (15:19):
We're really excited.
It's a Semi Expo so it's kindof a mini Semi's got a new event
you wanted to talk about.
We're really excited.
It's a Semi Expo, so it's kindof a mini SemiCon.
Last year SemiCon we had 30,000people show up this event.
This week we had a bit over 300.
So this will be kind of in themiddle.
We're expecting 1,500 to 2,000people in Indianapolis on April
(15:41):
1st and 2nd.
There's a lot going on in theMidwest.
We're calling it Semi-ExpoHeartland and we're plowing some
new fields here in theheartland of the United States.
Lots of activity, excitement inthe Midwest and also
opportunity.
So automotive electronics isone of those key.
Again that market diversity Italked about Implementation of
(16:02):
machine learning and AItechniques in manufacturing and
those two markets.
An awful lot of what happens inmanufacturing automotive
happens in the Midwest.
So we're taking Semi and ourindustry into the Midwest to
help develop those markets andreally excited, into the Midwest
to help develop those marketsand really excited.
We've got the governor ofIndiana coming to kick it off
(16:30):
and tremendous support fromfolks across the Midwest.
You know Indiana is our firstlocation but we really have
great partnership with theMidwest states as a whole who
are really excited about growingsemiconductor in their space as
well.
Okay, and what about SemiconWest A little bit of change,
Bringing it to Phoenix into yourbackyard, Francois.
Francoise von Trapp (16:49):
Yep Looking forward to it.
Joe Stockunas (16:51):
First time we're changing venues since, I think,
1990.
So it's been quite some time,but there's just so much
activity in Phoenix, so over$100 billion worth of investment
going on in Phoenix.
It makes sense to share thevenue for Semicon West between
Phoenix and San Francisco.
(17:12):
So we'll be back and forth eachyear and we are off to an
unbelievable start in Phoenix.
So the show floor was sold outbefore the end of 24, more than
10 months in advance.
We've got a great exhibitionfloor, we have great content.
We'll have over 400 speakers inthree days at SemiCon West, and
(17:32):
so the last thing I'm focusedon this year is I also want to
bring some celebration toSemiWest.
So we're going to do somethings.
Phoenix has the conventioncenter, has an outdoor space
that we can use to have someparties in the evening too, so
we're looking forward to that aswell.
Francoise von Trapp (17:47):
Should be great.
Joe Stockunas (17:48):
Thank you, I agree All right, thank you, okay
.
Francoise von Trapp (17:52):
So let's shift gears and we're going to
talk with our marketintelligence team, ina
Skvortsova and ChristianDieseldorf.
So, ina, let's start with you.
Semi just released its globalequipment forecast and you're
estimating a record sales of$139 billion for 2026.
Inna Skortsova (18:11):
Yes, françois, we are actually projecting three
years of consecutive growthagain for capital equipment
market, after we had just a mildcontraction or correction,
better to say in 2023.
So, effectively, by 2026, theequipment market is expected to
approach 140 billion mark, newindustry record, and with that,
(18:36):
I think, the capital intensityis remaining high, and and it's
for an 18% range of similarrevenues.
Francoise von Trapp (18:44):
Yeah, I imagine, with all of those new
fabs coming online, that'swhat's driving this equipment
growth.
Inna Skortsova (18:51):
Well, there are various factors.
In addition to capacityadditions that are coming from
the new fabs, there are veryhealthy drivers, including AI.
That was practically the topicof the ISS conference.
So, yes, there are a number offactors impacting the growth and
our projections.
We actually revised our 2024equipment forecast slightly and
(19:16):
adjusted 25 and 26 accordingly,based on the current market
conditions, and it's actuallyinteresting stories.
There are two vectors of thegrowth.
Some of it is technology-drivenand AI-driven, and another is
more on the geopolitical side.
Francoise von Trapp (19:34):
Okay, how so with the geopolitical?
Inna Skortsova (19:36):
side, china is a major factor.
So, for example I justmentioned, we changed our
forecast for 2024 for equipmentand we are finishing actually a
little higher than previouslyexpected Now at 6.5% growth over
, with a total reaching 112billion, and this upward
(19:57):
revision reflects stronger thanpreviously expected sales to
China that those investmentswere very, very significant.
We also saw a pickup ininvestments to support the AI.
If you look at 2023 and almostall 2024, we can say that China
is much bigger than AI for theequipment market, I mean say
(20:21):
that China is much bigger thanAI for the equipment market.
Francoise von Trapp (20:23):
I mean, your forecast covers both front
and back end equipment and we'refocused mostly in the advanced
packaging space.
Can you talk a little bit aboutthe breakdown between front and
back end and about the recoveryin the back end?
Inna Skortsova (20:36):
Oh yeah, of course.
Looking in general at theportal, VafaF, fab equipment
market, we expect 5% growth,reaching 101 billion this year,
and this is a little bit higheragain than what we expected.
And our forecast for 2025 isfor market to reach 108 billion,
(20:57):
growing 6% comparing to 2024.
And that is a little bit lowerthan we expected six months ago.
Some projects slowed down andwere pushed out to 2026.
There is some shift in dynamicsin the forecast, but if we
start with the foundry logicequipment standings, start with
(21:18):
the foundry logic equipmentspendings.
These remain stable comparingto 2023 level, reaching about 60
billion, and we expect onlysmall increase of 3% in 2025.
(21:38):
But the composition of thespendings will be different,
Pivoting to the memory equipmentspending for these and coming
years.
Dram spending expected tofinish the 2024 year we're still
finalizing with very healthy35% growth, followed by another
10% growth in 2025.
This growth will come from,obviously, investments in high
(22:01):
bandwidth memory and some of thecapacity additions for DRAM.
That will continue in 2026.
Dram will see both technologyand capacity-driven demand and
equipment spending.
On the other hand, non-flashequipment market we expect 2024
to finish soft, pretty much flat.
(22:21):
Comparing to prior year, 2025,we'll see a huge increase 48%,
but that is just coming from thelower base of 2024.
Now I understand the audienceis very interested in the
back-end equipment.
Let me start from test equipmentfirst.
In the first half of 2024, testequipment segment was pretty
(22:46):
soft comparing to 2023.
And we only started to seeincreases in tests just closer
to pretty much in the thirdquarter and that was because of
the quick surge in demand for arelated test.
That demand will continue.
That demand will only bestronger in 25 and 26 and we
(23:09):
expect very healthy growth forthe test for system on a chip
related test.
There is some softness and thatis generally because of the
soft consumer electronics andautomotive and industrial
segments.
But we expect that to improvegoing forward, Effectively going
forward.
We see a huge demand in testsrelated for HBM and complexity
(23:34):
of tests and type of tests forthat, With that memory test,
we'll see a steady recovery.
And complexity of tests andtype of tests for that, With
that memory test, we'll see asteady recovery.
It will see steady recovery interms of already sees a recovery
in terms of utilization ratesand in terms of new orders, and
that will continue.
Most of the investments will befocused on high-end memory,
(23:57):
especially for DDR5 and HPMs, asI mentioned earlier.
Francoise von Trapp (24:02):
What I wanted to know was about the
recovery in the back end andwhat's driving that.
So we know that there's a lotof growth in the advanced
packaging space, so I can onlyassume that this is what is
driving the growth there.
Inna Skortsova (24:14):
Yeah, definitely that is one of the growth
drivers and you're correct.
Like, if you look at 2023, itwas the lowest point in terms of
the investments in the pastfive years in assembly and
packaging, but we see the demandfor packaging coming back and
coming back, starting 2024.
And that will continue in thenext two years.
(24:36):
Again, advanced packaging thatis related to 2.5 and 3D
technology, for what most of itcovers, and HBM technology these
are the areas where we see themost investments, especially for
the technologies likedeployment of technologies like
(24:57):
hybrid bonding that werediscussed today or yesterday at
ISS panel.
Also, thermal compressionbonding.
Those are the areas of actualstrong growth in assembling
packaging equipment segment, inaddition to traditional needs
for classic packaging.
Francoise von Trapp (25:18):
Okay, now I think we should move over to
Christian to talk about theworld fab forecast that was just
released, and it wasinteresting because Joe just
mentioned, I think, 108 fabs inconstruction, but the new
forecast is focused on 18 newcommercial fabs.
Is this because they're juststarting construction in 2025?
Christian Dieseldorf (25:39):
Yeah right , so the 18 is fabs which we
estimate will start constructionthis year.
Joe was referring to any fabswhich are still in construction.
These construction phases cantake a long time, up to two
years, two to three years even,pending on region and the size
(25:59):
of the fab itself.
Francoise von Trapp (26:02):
Okay, so let's talk about these fabs.
Where are they going to belocated?
Christian Dieseldorf (26:08):
Pretty much all over the world and I
need to say it's very trickymaking this forecast 18.
So don't get stuck on 18,because this number can change
next week.
Francoise von Trapp (26:21):
Right.
Christian Dieseldorf (26:21):
Okay, if a company, let's say Micron, is
among one of those, micron andClay if they decide they don't
start construction by the end of2025, then the number goes down
to 17.
Okay, right, and so this couldchange, could go down to 14, or
could go down, could go even upto 20, depending what it is, and
(26:45):
these are fabs of all differentsizes.
So we have three 8-inch fabs,the rest are all 12-inch, and
they start with 5,000 wafers permonth, which is the smallest
one, up to over 100,000 wafersper month.
Francoise von Trapp (27:06):
You talked about 8-inch or 200-millimeter
wafer fabs.
Well, is it unprecedented thatthere would be three new
200-millimeter fabs included inthis?
Christian Dieseldorf (27:16):
200 millimeter fabs included in this
?
No, no, not really, in fact.
So in last year we had four.
In 2023, we had 10.
Okay, and in 2022, we had seven.
So in 2025, or so you can see,the number goes down, but again,
(27:37):
the number can change.
I expect the number to go upeven, and one reason is because
of power SIC technology.
A lot of companies are movingfrom six inch 150 millimeter to
eight inch 200 millimeter theSIC products.
Power is one of the drivingforces behind all these fabs, as
Joe mentioned forces behind allthese fabs, as Joe mentioned AI
(27:59):
, for example.
Ai uses a huge amount of powerand we also have electrification
going on.
We have IoT Don't forget aboutIoT and other technologies and
then we have all the datacenters.
They need memory, they needpower and so on.
So I expect some more 8-inchFABs, new 8-inch FABs to be
(28:26):
built, and if they can't buildnew 8-inch FABs because it costs
more money, they are convertinga 6-inch FAB, 150-millimeter
FAB, to 8-inch, and we see thatas well.
But some of these six-inch fabsare so old that they don't
qualify to be converted, to beready for 200-millimeter
(28:48):
equipment.
So then the company has tobuild a new fab.
Francoise von Trapp (28:52):
That's really interesting because I
hadn't thought about theincrease in 200 millimeter,
because the volume is drivingthe products from the 150 up to
200.
And I also think about thedifferent materials.
I mean, when it comes to powersemiconductors, there's a lot of
different materials thansilicon.
(29:14):
You know, the compoundsemiconductors are usually at
those smaller wafer sizes.
Christian Dieseldorf (29:27):
Is there a possibility that that could
ever be at 300 millimeter?
So one contentor to SIC,silicon carbide, for example, is
gallium nitride, right.
So gallium nitride you probablysee that more on sixinch or 150
millimeter, 200 millimeter, butInfineon, for example, they
just have qualified galliumnitride on 300 millimeter.
(29:47):
There was an announcement madein September of last year, which
is incredible, and, as Joe saidbefore, a wafer is not a wafer
anymore.
That's so true because you havechips of various sizes.
Some of them use leading edgetechnology, which requires EUV
(30:08):
or extreme EUV, and others arefor mature technologies where
you can build with feature sizesabove 22 nanometer.
Francoise von Trapp (30:20):
Okay, okay, that makes sense.
You know, one of the thingsthat a lot of OEMs have been
focused on is their newprocesses designed for 300
millimeter, and one of thethings I always hear about is
how the 200 millimeter toolshaven't been kept up to date
with process technology.
And then there's also a demandfor secondary 200 millimeter
(30:43):
equipment.
So how is this expansionimpacting the OEM side of things
?
Christian Dieseldorf (30:49):
The 200 millimeter used equipment market
is pretty much dried out.
So there's really not much.
I think it dried out quite afew years back.
There's really not much.
I think it died out quite a fewyears back.
So OEMs are starting to makenew 200 millimeter equipment
with the specificationsrequirements which fit a 300
(31:12):
millimeter tool.
So these are leading edge.
But the question is how muchmoney?
How much money do you want toinvest as an OEM into 200
millimeter when there are rightnow only three new fabs starting
construction potentially, ifthey are not pushed out?
So you need to look at themarket.
I don't see the investment tobe huge, but I hear that this
(31:35):
equipment, the new equipment, isbeing built.
Francoise von Trapp (31:40):
Okay, so even the you said last year
there were two and the yearbefore that there were 10.
Yeah, are those of all, andthose have all completed
construction and ramped tomanufacturing.
Christian Dieseldorf (31:57):
No, not all of them, uh, but in 23 we
had 10, okay, which was a yearwhere we had most of 200
millimeter for a long time, uh,and last year we had four.
So these are smaller fabs.
It doesn't take two years tobuild them until ready for
production, and so it takesmaybe one year, one and a half
(32:19):
years again, depending where youare.
Some of them have started, someof them have not, and the power
the automotive and powerindustry right now is a little
bit slow, but I hear automotivemarket is slow and I hear
companies are pushing out theirplans so they may have the FAB
(32:41):
and concrete is very patient,right.
So you can build your FAB andthen you try to get your CHIP-AC
funding for it first of all, ifyou can.
Then you have the FAB ready andthen you start equipping
pending market, and right now wesee that being pushed out and
slowed down because of thesituation we have pending market
, and right now we see thatbeing pushed out and slowed down
because of the situation wehave Okay so for OEMs it's good
(33:06):
news, but it might not be thisyear that they get those tool
orders.
Well, those, some of theseperhaps, which started
construction in 2310, again,they, they may still be
equipping, okay, right.
And the OEMs, they know, I meanthere are not so many out there
If there's a really new fabbeing built, they know I don't
(33:31):
expect it to be a huge spike.
And then, don't forget, thereare older fabs, 150 millimeter,
where 200 millimeter equipmentis being moved in so that
transition slowly to largerwafer size, if the fab, the
facility, is qualified to dothat.
So I wouldn't call it a hugespike or this great thing which
(33:55):
will happen for the OEMs.
It's a more suppressedsituation we have right now.
Francoise von Trapp (34:00):
Okay, well, I think that's super helpful
and interesting, but we do haveto wrap it up, so tell me about
new reports that listenersshould be on the lookout for
from the SEMI MIT team.
Christian Dieseldorf (34:16):
So we have quite a few reports forecast.
So I do forecast the WorldFabforecast.
The next update will bepublished early March and if you
don't want to wait, you cansubscribe to our FabView where
you have access 24 seven to thedatabase.
Let's say I make a change intoone of the fabs, like Micron and
(34:37):
Clay or Global Foundries in NewYork, they can see it right
away.
That's FAB view.
And then at the same time wehave our 300 millimeter report
and 200 millimeter report, whichis a forecast which goes to
2028 and to 2030 with anextended edition.
Francoise von Trapp (34:56):
Okay, that's really cool that they can
get information in real timethat you're adjusting things on
the fly, you know it is great,but if I make a mistake, they
also see the mistake.
Oh well, we all make mistakes,don't we?
Christian Dieseldorf (35:13):
Yeah, we do, but I think I get caught.
Yeah, you still need to becareful.
You want to make sure whateveryou enter into the database is
solid.
Francoise von Trapp (35:23):
That's the beauty of editing.
So no, I get it, ina.
Inna Skortsova (35:25):
what new reports do you think listeners should
be on the lookout for In thefirst quarter of this year we
are publishing our EMDSEquipment Market Data
Subscription Refresh, where weactually provide a deep dive
into the forecast that I justmentioned.
We also going to finalize 2024and, on the material side, we
(35:50):
are preparing to publish ourmaterials market data
subscription report, which willextend the forecast for both
wafer farm materials andpackaging materials through 2026
.
I think those are the keyreports that might be of
interest to your audience andglobal audience.
Francoise von Trapp (36:10):
Okay, all right.
Well, I want to thank you allfor joining me today and it's
been great to talk to you, and Ikind of feel sad that I wasn't
there in person, but we'll tryto make it next year.
Christian Dieseldorf (36:21):
Thank you, Francoise.
Francoise von Trapp (36:22):
Thank you, Francoise.
Where should people go to findout more?
Christian Dieseldorf (36:25):
Our website semiorg.
Inna Skortsova (36:29):
Slash.
Francoise von Trapp (36:31):
Market Intelligence.
There we go, okay, thanks somuch and take care.
Thank you for having us.
Thanks so much and take care.
Inna Skortsova (36:38):
Thank, you for having us.
Francoise von Trapp (36:42):
Next time on the 3D Insights podcast, I'll
be speaking with the organizersof this year's IMAPS Device
Packaging Conference to find outwhat's in store for this year's
event and what the key topicswill be.
You'll hear from General ChairAmy Lujan about this year's
keynotes and technology tracks.
Co-chair of the GeneralBusiness Council, tim Olson
talks about this year's keynotesand technology tracks.
Co-chair of the GeneralBusiness Council, tim Olson
talks about this year's focus onAI for high-performance
(37:03):
computing and data centers, andTech Search's Jan Vardaman gives
a glimpse of the paneldiscussion she'll be leading
that has the provocative titlePreparing for the Coming AI
Winter.
Be sure to follow us on yourpreferred podcast app to get
automatic downloads of thelatest episodes.
Thanks for listening.
There's lots more to come, sotune in next time to the 3D
(37:24):
Insights Podcast.
The 3D Insights Podcast is aproduction of 3D Insights LLC.
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