October 2, 2025 • 28 mins
We welcome agricultural economist David Widmar from AEI.ag to unpack why corn acres keep moving west, how the corn–soy “factory” expanded, and why interest cost is the creeper crushing margins. We break down median farm income myths, the scale of solar on farmland, and fresh headlines about a proposed $10B farm aid package.
• new collaboration with AEI.ag and how we met
• lessons from Escaping 1980 and boom-bust rhymes
• corn acres shifting west and state-level patterns
• price signals that favored corn over soybeans
• the expanded corn–soy acreage “factory” capacity
• rising “other” costs: interest, insurance, electricity, repairs
• difference between accounting and economic profit
• why median farm income reads demographics, not distress
• commercial producer concentration and debt service reality
• potential $10B aid: funding paths and dilution risk
• solar projects on farmland: fast growth, small national share
• practical risk management for higher-for-longer rates
“By the way, thank you for subscribing to the Ag Bull YouTube channel.”
“Also, if you would like a copy of these charts, just email us, TG at AG Bull.”
Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia
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Thank you, Tommy G
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:13):
Happy Thursday, everyone.
Tom Grossafi coming to you fromNashville, Tennessee.
I hope you could hear me.
I hope you could see me.
And I am super excited toannounce a new collaboration.
That means we had to make a newthumbnail.
We got a handsome alert here.
Ring the bell if we have a bellright there.
(00:34):
Mr.
David Whidmer, new contributorhere.
He's coming to us from AEI.ag.
David, there's a littlebackstory.
Welcome to the show.
Thank you so much, Tommy.
Looking forward to thiscollaboration.
I gotta switch us.
I gotta be on the left.
You've got to be on the right.
All right.
Tell everyone how I met you.
SPEAKER_01 (00:55):
Well, we crossed paths in Kansas City several
years ago at the NationalAssociation of Farm
Broadcasters.
We followed up in CommodityClassic there afterwards.
And we were talking about theEscaping 1980 podcast that my
team put together.
And it came together during thesummer of 2020 when things
(01:15):
weren't looking very good in thefarm economy.
Everyone was asking us, is thisgoing to be a repeat of the
1980s farm financial crisis?
That Mark Twain quote alwaysrings true in our ears.
History doesn't repeat itself,but it often rhymes.
And of course, by the time wewrapped up that season of that
podcast, this is the funny part.
We went to the hell of a bullmarket.
(01:37):
China started buying corn.
We got some government payments.
And that's that idea of therhyming and the themes.
There are always concerns, butthere's always differences in
(01:59):
the farm economy.
And we tried to cover that inthat 1980 episode.
Everyone says, I my boss or mymentor or my dad told me don't
repeat the mistakes of the1980s, but very few people ever
got sat down and really toldwhat happened during the 1980s
crisis.
And we tried to do that in thatpodcast season.
SPEAKER_00 (02:17):
Right.
And if folks, if you go toSpotify or Apple or however you
get podcasts, and just GoogleEscaping 1980.
Now, actually, David's beingmodest here because it's it's a
three podcast series, and thisis the first series, maybe 10
episodes.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (02:35):
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (02:36):
And then the second season was Horn Saves America.
SPEAKER_01 (02:40):
So it was an idea of let's revisit the history of the
ethanol boom and how it appliedto the carbon market boom that
was going on a couple years ago.
SPEAKER_00 (02:49):
Okay.
My brother says he wants myspeaker a little higher.
Does that sound better, Jojo?
All right, maybe I waswhispering or something.
All right, we sound good, welook good.
I hope, I hope, I hope it'sgood.
Otherwise, we'll have to redoeverything.
No.
All right, and then the thirdseries.
SPEAKER_01 (03:07):
Nothing borrowed, nothing gained.
So looking through where doesthe money that farmers borrow
come from?
So we talked about the farmcredit system, the local banks,
the farmer Mac, and really helpproducers realize when the Fed
makes a decision, how does thatchange in the Fed funds rate
work its way through the systemand eventually get its way to
(03:29):
farmer level interest rates?
SPEAKER_00 (03:31):
And when that came out, were interest rates still
at pretty much zero and aboutready to explode, or were they
just on the verge of exploding?
SPEAKER_01 (03:38):
It was right at that cusp where inflation was running
and everyone was anticipatingthe Fed to start to raise their
rates, and we were sort ofpriming the pump for people to
think about how do we get fromthe Fed to the farm?
SPEAKER_00 (03:50):
It's interesting because I'd say half the problem
people are in right now isbecause just money spent on
interest.
And although inflation was greatfor landowners and it was great
for the initial explosion ofcrop prices, we then
overproduced.
Now our cost production is high,everything's high.
You know what's high, and wecould talk about it someday on
another episode.
(04:11):
But uh, electricity, insurance,those are the creepers, and then
you know the way I always tellpeople on the interest is every
million you were borrowing youused to pay 30 grand back.
Every million you borrow now,you owe 70 or 80 grand.
So you're there's a magic40,000, 50,000 per million just
gone, and it just cost you thembusiness, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (04:32):
That that's completely correct.
We just did a project, and we Ididn't bring a slide for you
today, but we were looking atthe different cost categories
that have gone up over the lastfew years, and there was this
category we took out seed andfertilizer and crop protection,
and then there's a othervariable expenses, and it was up
a lot, it was a huge surprise.
It's repairs, it's interest,it's insurance, even crop
(04:54):
insurance is up.
So, yes, all these variablecosts of production have really
had a lot of upward pressure,and interest is the one that I
think farmers have really got tofocus on.
And if you're not in aprofitable situation today and
you take on more debt to getthrough to next year, you're
it's a spiral.
You have to figure out a way toget your operation back to
profitability.
Be very cautious with justburning working capital to get
(05:16):
yourself to next year.
SPEAKER_00 (05:18):
Yeah, and then just full disclosure, I'm Italian.
If we don't ever have a slide,we got to talk with our hands
and just do stick figures orsomething.
So uh we're gonna get through.
You did bring some great sites,but I was excited to start the
show, and then I wasn't sure youknow, Joe said our volume wasn't
quite high enough, but we'rerolling with it.
Tell people what you do there atuh what work looks like for you
(05:39):
on a daily level and why peoplesubscribe to your group and and
how you're helping farmers andbusinesses and ag lenders, etc.
SPEAKER_01 (05:47):
Yeah, so I'm an agricultural economist by
training, so uh AEI is ageconomic insights.
We got really creative with ournaming here.
And my business partner, BrentGloy, and I were both at Purdue
University, and we recognizedthere was a gap between what the
what media was able to reportand what academia was able to
report.
And so there was this gap in themiddle for substantive but still
(06:09):
timely insights.
And so we're not breaking news,we're not gonna be uh breaking
the latest estimates for cornersoybeans, but we're gonna break
that down for what it means forfor producers and for the supply
chain, for agriculturalprofessionals that work with
producers.
And so we spend a lot of timethinking about the farm economy,
we spend a lot of time thinkingabout crop cropping decisions
(06:31):
for 2026.
And so we pull this all togetherto really help think about those
farm level decisions and howproducers and those who work
with producers can best positionthemselves for whatever farm
economy we're in.
We spend a lot of so it's kindof like market commentary, but
for farm management.
We really try to drive this backdown to the whole farm and risk
management and decision makingand capital purchases and debt
(06:53):
service, all these things arereally important to the
operation.
SPEAKER_00 (06:56):
And all kidding aside, sometimes the best way to
explain what's going on is withthe picture.
And I think you brought for yourfirst time here at the Agbo
Podcast, you brought a couplepictures.
I'll uh pop those up.
Let's add them to the stagehere.
Let's see this one.
What do we have here?
The old corn keeps moving west.
What do you think of that?
SPEAKER_01 (07:17):
Well, we've been working, so we produce a lot of
charts.
So I'm gonna bring a lot ofcharts to this show.
As many as Tommy will let mebring, he'll probably throw away
a half of them.
But just know the picture'sworth a thousand words, pictures
worth a thousand words AI.
SPEAKER_00 (07:31):
Go ahead, Mr.
David.
Some a lot of people will belistening to this and they won't
be able to see it.
So uh really obviously a lot ofpeople watch us on YouTube.
By the way, thank you forsubscribing to the Ag Bull
YouTube channel.
But for folks listening on Appleand Spotify, we'll always do our
best to try to describe whatthese charts say.
Also, if you would like a copyof these charts, just email us,
(07:53):
just get a hold of us, TG at AGBull.
I could send you these fourcharts.
I just because sometimes Inotice on uh TV when I do TV,
people are like, you know, someof us are listening on XM Radio.
I'm like, Oh, we threw up apicture and you have no clue
what that is.
And this picture is corn acreagekeeps moving west.
SPEAKER_01 (08:12):
So, Tommy, thanks for that.
What we've been watching isstate level changes in corn
acreage, and what wasinteresting is that acreage two
years ago in 2023 was only 4million acres less than where we
are today.
It's kind of hard to imagine I'msaying only 4 million acres
difference.
But the idea is we had a bigcorn year two years ago, we have
a big corn year acreage yearthis year.
(08:34):
So if corn acres are up roughly4 million or 4%, we would
anticipate that all the stateswould raise acres, or all the
states would be about 4% higher.
But that state level data showsthat corn acreage keeps moving
west.
And how this shows up is thestates that gained acres is
basically the central plains,the northern plains, Iowa,
(08:57):
Minnesota, Wisconsin.
The states that didn't addacreage draw a line from
Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois,and east.
So Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan,
these states just didn't addcorn acreage.
I think folks intuitively knowthat corn acreage has moved west
over the last 10 or 15 years.
They're surprised when they seeit's still unfolding, even in
(09:20):
this year when we have a record98 million acres of corn, we
still didn't add acres in thateastern corn belt.
SPEAKER_00 (09:27):
That's interesting.
Were you surprised when thegovernment kept upping corn
acreage and upping corn acreage?
Was your firm surprised?
SPEAKER_01 (09:34):
Yeah, we we have a model that we look at and it's
not a survey, it's just lookingat that price ratio.
So one of the things I try tohelp our clients think about is
how big is the US factory formaking corn and soybeans, and
we're gonna talk about that inthe next slide.
And then we look at that priceratio.
So, how are we gonna allocatethose acres between corn and
(09:54):
soybeans?
And so we our that model, it hasa lot of noise to it, it's not a
great model, but it was pointingto a bigger than 95, bigger than
96 million acre crop.
Uh 98 is at the higher end ofwhat it's was predicting.
So I was surprised it hit that,but it was just signaling a big
factory and it was signaling ashare that was going to be very
(10:15):
favorable for corn.
SPEAKER_00 (10:17):
And uh we did it, we did it.
You know what else I heard, andmaybe you could comment on this.
Maybe I'm going off the railsand we're going sidetracking
here, but the government made uhanother level of crop insurance
a little easier to buy up tothat 95% level.
And with the market so low, Ithink people bought up that
better crop insurance, and it'slike the like the government
(10:40):
almost subsidized us plantingmore corn acres, and then the
farmer was surprised they didit.
So remember earlier in the allwinter and all spring, how the
market was saying plant corn,not beans, plant corn, not
beans, and then when they didit, they're acting, they're
acting shocked, like who thehell planted all this corn?
Well, you guys did because themass said to do it, but then you
(11:01):
forgot to sell it.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (11:03):
So corn had a very strong signal going into this
year.
The outlook was bleak for bothcorn and soybeans, but our
budget estimates were sayingcorn had economic losses, and we
could talk about the differencebetween an economic loss and an
accounting loss, but an economicprojection was like negative 10
to 20 bucks an acre before anygovernment payments came in.
Soybeans were hanging out likenegative 100, negative 110.
(11:25):
And so the signals were justblaring plant corn.
And I think everyone got caughtup in the narrative of it
doesn't look great, and theymissed the fact that corn was
actually looking a little bitbetter than soybeans.
And if we think about corn andsoybeans together, which is what
this slide is trying to look at,we also saw that corn and
(11:46):
soybean acres collectivelyincrease.
So the first way we look at thisis how many acres did we
actually plant together?
So we add those all up, and thatcame to about 179.8 million, so
almost 180.
The second thing we look at atAEI is we say, let's think about
this as a factory.
Sometimes a factory exceedscapacity, sometimes a factory
(12:06):
comes under capacity, and thereare reasons why.
And in corno soybean acreage,it's that prevent plant factor.
Sometimes prevent plaque isprevent plant is bigger than
normal, sometimes it's less thannormal.
So what we did here said, what'sthat factory size?
Because we know actual acreage,we know prevent plant.
What's the factory size?
And what we saw here is from2019 to 2024, we planted on
(12:28):
average 178 million acres ofcorn and soybeans.
The factory size of 2025 was180.3.
So we added the factory expandedby 2 million acres, and I think
that's gonna set the stage forbig production going into 2026
and beyond.
Where do those acres come from?
It came from wheat, it came fromcotton, and I don't see a crop
(12:49):
budget outlook at this time thatsuggests wheat and cotton are
gonna bid those acres back outof corn and soybeans.
I think we're gonna lock it up.
SPEAKER_00 (12:59):
When I go on X, when I go on the interweb, I thought
Dollar Trees and solar panelswere taking all our land.
SPEAKER_01 (13:06):
Well, I have a slide for that.
We could talk about that.
The solar number uh is not quitebig enough to pull a slide for
everything.
SPEAKER_00 (13:16):
People will be like, I like that guy.
If you got a problem, he's got aslide.
Next slide.
Medium farm income, not what itseems.
Do tell.
SPEAKER_01 (13:26):
When the times get lean in the farm economy, I
think folks are reallystruggling to find a measure to
show how bad it is.
And I've been seeing median farmincome used a lot.
And the headline goes somethinglike the median farm income in
2025 is negative$300.
And the insight is half morethan half of all producers are
losing money on their farmingoperation.
(13:49):
Now that sounds sobering, butwhen you look at history, median
farm income is almost alwaysnegative.
In fact, 2025 is the fourthbiggest or fourth highest,
fourth best median farm incomein decades.
And so, what median farm incomeis really telling us is it tells
us about the demographics ofagriculture.
(14:09):
And so there are a lot ofproducers, a lot of those two
million farmers and ranchers outthere that maybe have a
lifestyle or a hobby operation.
These are the farms that areincluded in the USDA statistics.
And so what we see is year inand year out, there are
demographics, and this one overhere all the way to the left.
These are residence producers.
It's about half of all of thetwo million, so there's about a
(14:31):
million individuals out therewho have a farm and they have a
job in town that's their primaryfocus, or maybe they're retired,
they've retired off the farm.
And so what we see here is thatthey have about a thousand
dollars in losses on the farmevery year, and they have an
off-farm job to support thatthat that lifestyle or that that
that project.
You could think about this asyou drive through rural America.
(14:53):
Uh, a few goats, a few horses, abig acreage, and so sweet corn,
a little something going on.
This is not, and this is notthis is not a for-profit, and
they're trying to make it thethe profitability of this farm,
doesn't determine theprofitability of their
household.
Their household is really what'sdriving and enabling that that
farming side of it.
And so then there's anothercategory.
(15:14):
These are these smalleroperations, less than$300,000 in
gross farm sales.
They're focused on their farm,but there's a lot of off-farm
income helping them as well.
So on average, they have aprofitability, but it's a pretty
small profit.
They're reinvesting that profitto grow that operation for the
future.
And then finally, that's that10% of commercial producers,
they have a lot of on-farmincome.
(15:36):
They also have off-farm income.
And I think the other thing I'llmention here is that that
on-farm income looks like a bignumber, but in reality, they
still have to pay their debts.
They have to service their debtswith that number.
So that isn't free and clearcash.
They also have to pay theirhousehold expenses out of that
number.
And so farm profitability isalways tricky because there's a
lot of things going on withthat, but demographics are
(15:57):
really key to keep in mind ifyou think about what happens.
So there are a lot of producersout there where this downturn in
the farm economy is negativelyimpacting their households, but
there's a whole other tranche ofthe farm economy that's more
dependent on their jobs in town.
SPEAKER_00 (16:14):
Okay.
And uh I think we got a littlebreaking news here coming out,
too.
My brother's saying, let's go tothe next slide real quick, he'll
get that loaded up.
Next slide here, survey says, isuh solar projects on farmland
and non-farmland.
I want to go back though, I'mgonna go back one slide and ask
(16:34):
you a question.
SPEAKER_01 (16:35):
Go for it.
SPEAKER_00 (16:35):
If Tommy Grassaffee and Joe Grassoffi, who are
commodity brokers at AgbleTrading, and we go through
Nesvik trading here in Nashvilleand Memphis, and uh a great
client is someone who grows200,000 bushels of corn and
50,000 beans.
How many of those farms arethere?
It's not as many as we think, isthere?
SPEAKER_01 (16:56):
No, so it's that 10 that is all the way over to the
right.
That's where that group would beat.
But let's back that up.
That 10% to the right isactually anybody with more than
$300,000 in economic activity.
And so you think there are twomillion farmers roughly, and
then 10% of those have more than$300,000 in economic activity.
(17:18):
And so that segment that youjust talked about, right?
That's any close to that millionplus, that's going to be even a
smaller share of that.
So we're talking about tens ofthousands of producers, not
hundreds of thousands, which iswhere we see a lot of these
demographic shifts coming from.
SPEAKER_00 (17:35):
All right.
I think we got somethingexciting happen that doesn't
always happen, but you know whatwe have?
Breaking news, breaking news.
We can't make this stuff up.
All right, Jojo loaded it up andhe says, go ahead, Joe.
Trump plans billions for farmerswith taxpayer money.
Politico Trump explores bailout,at least 10 billion for U.S.
(17:58):
farmers.
I saw that uh come across X2while uh we were talking, and uh
this is being recorded at 2 30on uh 10 to 2025.
I gotta tell you something, andthen I'll let you talk.
10 billion isn't a lot of moneyfor how much damage there is out
there financially.
I know 10 billion sounds like alot, but if you take 10 billion
(18:20):
dollars, well, think of it thisway we grow 16 billion bushels
of corn, and if you gave them adollar a bushel, that's 16
billion, right?
We grow four, four and a half,five billion bushels of beans,
that's only two dollars a bushelin beans.
My clients in North Dakota havea dollar seventy-five negative
basis, they need someone just tomake up that dollar 75 to get
(18:41):
close to break-even.
So, anyway, we can keep politicsout of it, but someone's you
know, the flying around on AirForce One and flying around on a
combine are two different thingshere because there's still a big
gap in finance and ag, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (18:56):
Right.
I don't think$10 billion is uhit's it's on the lower side of
what I was expecting.
SPEAKER_00 (19:01):
Say something crazy, we'll get all types of comments
on YouTube.
SPEAKER_01 (19:04):
They'll be like, That guy, he's arrogant.
SPEAKER_00 (19:07):
David doesn't think $10 billion is a lot.
We're folks, we're talking about$10 billion over all the bushels
of corn, all the bushels ofwheat, all the bushels of uh
soybeans, canola, edibles,there's sunflowers, all that
stuff, like uh sugar beet,should price of sugar is
horrible.
There's a lot of problems outthere, David.
Seriously.
SPEAKER_01 (19:27):
I think that you hit the nail on the head.
It's how much slicing of a$10billion pie are we going to do
to get there?
So if we're talking about$10billion to corn and soybeans and
wheat, that might be startgetting there.
But if we have to slice that upwith livestock producers and all
these other crops that they'regonna be needing and wanting
these payments as well, I thinkthat's gonna start to be
(19:50):
relevant.
I think what we're gonna have tofigure out here in the next few
months here is how they're gonnapay for this.
So I think the CCC credit cardis about tapped out.
Uh, I don't think there's$10billion on that.
I think it's a$15 billion max tobegin with.
And so I think the next thing isare they gonna be able to use
tariffs?
And I don't know how thattariff, the tariff revenue is
gonna play into that.
(20:10):
And then the third arm heremight be Congress, and Congress
is is apparently tied up for thenext couple days at least with
some some work, some homeworkthey haven't gotten accomplished
yet.
And so we'll see if they get thegovernment back open.
But I think 10 billion is smallenough that they can probably
wiggle it through with somenon-congressional action, so
maybe that's the motivation forthat smaller number.
(20:30):
But I think it was a$30 billionpro$30 billion in funds that
Congress authorized at the endof 2024 that got paid in 2025.
So that's just some context ofwhy I said$10 billion isn't as
much as I would haveanticipated.
SPEAKER_00 (20:44):
You know how you have a slide for everything?
I got a slide for everything.
This is where the money comesfrom, right here.
The old swipe the card,$10billion.
We're talking about.
Well, we're recording our firstpodcast ever with Mr.
David, and uh, we had somebreaking news here about$10
billion.
It it nonetheless, uh, it'sinteresting.
SPEAKER_01 (21:06):
Okay, as we it's a long ways from the producer's
checkbooks, though.
It's a long ways away from theircash flow statements, and so I
think the government's closedright now, too.
SPEAKER_00 (21:14):
That's funny in itself.
That uh we're like, hey, we gotmoney for you.
Let's go over this next slide.
And I do have I did lose oneclient over here up in Michigan
to solar farms.
He's a really cool kid.
Again, we're meeting with uhDavid from AEI.ag.
That is the website, correct?
That is, yeah.
We have it plastered everywhere.
(21:35):
If they don't know what it isafter this episode, they're a
fool.
Explain to me the solar farmthing.
SPEAKER_01 (21:40):
Well, we've been getting a lot of folks, just
like you mentioned here, saying,Hey, I don't have as many acres
as I did last year because Ilost out my lease to a solar
lease, or I drive down theinterstate I-70, I-80, I-9, and
I see a solar farm going in, andit's really big.
And what's gonna happen?
What's gonna happen with allthis farmland?
So we step back.
I think we're the first team toever do this, and we measured
(22:02):
how many acres of farmland havebeen converted to solar projects
on the map.
If you can see that, those arethe green dots.
The blue dots are non-farmland,so that's you know, desert or
commercial space or the top of abuilding.
These are these are utilityscale projects, and it's
interesting to see how thisplays out.
If you were to roll this back,and we have one of these images
(22:23):
at our site, aei.ag, where ittime-laps over time.
And so if you looked at thisbefore 2020, there weren't many
dots, there weren't manyprojects in what I'd call the
Corn Belt or the Great Plains,and that's where so we look at
this now, and we had anexplosion of activity there,
it's in the heartland, and alsoin Florida and Texas.
That's where we really saw a lotof these new projects come
(22:45):
online.
So the number, 300,000 acres offarmland, 650,000 acres in
total, have been covered bythese large-scale solar
projects.
SPEAKER_00 (22:55):
All right, I like this.
I gotta say, of all the people Ido shows with and whatnot,
you're different, which isunique.
And like any mom would say,they're just jealous, yeah.
Because you bring a differentuh, and we're not 36,000 foot
view, we're even higher thanthat.
You're not nothing we talk aboutdefinitely on our shows uh with
(23:19):
you is gonna make someone do atrade or maybe influence them
for the day.
But it I'll just speak formyself.
Listening to your podcast, youand your group's podcast,
changed the way I was thinkingabout.
And even though we teased you inthe beginning that your podcast
did started when prices wereexploding, and it seemed very
off.
It seemed like, wow, we got abunch of professors who aren't
(23:42):
with the times.
Things repeat themselves,history repeats themselves.
People we we get too cranked upin the egg, and then decisions
made during good times come backto haunt you during bad times,
and I think that's where we areright now.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (23:59):
Exactly the case.
And the rhyme that we wereconcerned about surfacing in
2020, and we talked about this,is inflation followed by
interest rates.
And I think that's this problemthat we found ourselves in, and
hopefully we're through it,right?
But in the 70s, there was a boutof inflation, and then there was
the Paul Volcker 1980, 19 late70s, early 80s inflation hike
(24:23):
to, or excuse me, interest ratehike to calm and curb inflation.
And I think that's the part thatwe're concerned about.
And I think that's still thepiece that a lot of producers
haven't fully thought through.
Where do you think interestrates are gonna be five years
from now?
And we're not going back to that2010 to 2022 era of almost 0%
interest rates, in my opinion.
(24:44):
I think we're gonna see interestrates at a higher level, not
necessarily where we are today,but higher than where we've been
in that rear view mirror look atperspective.
We leaving the 2010 era of 0%interest rates had a lot of
distortion in the in the economyand the farm economy.
And I think we're stillunraveling and unwinding from
that.
SPEAKER_00 (25:04):
Not to mention, David, what happened with if
that wasn't odd enough what wewere doing when you throw in
COVID, the COVID mathematics ofuh taking our deficit from you
know back then 16, 18 trillionto 24 trillion, and now we're in
the 30 trillion.
That it seems like, and we'lltalk about this on another
episode, but I guarantee youcould overlay the United States
(25:26):
deficit of what it is in thevalue of farmland, couldn't you?
SPEAKER_01 (25:30):
That's a good question.
I'll have to I'll have to thinkabout bringing a chart next
time.
I'll have to put that together.
That's a really good point.
SPEAKER_00 (25:35):
We're meeting today with this handsome gentleman
right here, Mr.
David Whidmer.
He's a new contributor throughwith AEI.ag.
I met David through theinterweb, just like you're all
meeting us on this podcast, andtheir podcast they had, it I
don't know what to say changedmy life.
Like, wasn't like I had adrinking problem, and this
podcast sobered me up, but thispodcast challenged me to think.
(25:58):
And now I promise you, I promiseyou, on October 2nd, 2025, if
you go listen to this podcast,it all makes sense.
But when I was walking on atreadmill three, four years ago
listening to this podcast, I waslike, what are these guys
smoking?
Grains are six, seven dollarsfor corn, farmers are
profitable, they're paying ahundred thousand dollars over
(26:18):
list for machinery.
This doesn't make sense.
It all makes sense now by farthe number one podcast you could
listen to in agriculture, betterthan this one, because I don't
think people realize how muchtime and work you guys put into
that podcast series.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (26:35):
It took us a team to put together.
I appreciate you you your yourendorsement.
I also appreciate yourecognizing that um there's a
lot of editing and a lot ofplanning that went into that.
So it's a very different format.
It's it's well done.
We had a great producer andco-host help us put that
together.
So we're really proud of thatoutput.
And we tried to bring themes andlessons that would resonate for
(26:56):
decades, and then that was whatwe were trying to really
accomplish there.
And I and I hope that that playsout.
But as you said earlier, Tommy,it's often the decisions we make
in the good times, in the boomyears, that get us into trouble
and not those bad years, thoselinear decisions.
We're usually trying to just getout of that hole by the time we
get there.
SPEAKER_00 (27:13):
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, I'm glad to call you afriend and a contributor.
I know we talked about doingthis a few years ago, we just
couldn't get it done.
Timing wasn't right.
Timing's right now, and peopleneed you and your group and Agbo
Podcast in this you knowcollaboration, what we're gonna
do.
And not so sure how ofteneveryone's gonna see you guys,
if it'll be every week, everyother week, but we'll take you
as much time and as often as youguys want to do this, we'd love
(27:36):
to have you.
All right.
SPEAKER_01 (27:37):
Well, thanks so much, Tommy.
Appreciate all you do.
SPEAKER_00 (27:39):
And I am not gonna spend a lot of time editing
this.
I'm gonna box it up, and this isgonna be on the interweb in the
next half hour.
But it will be up to date withbreaking news.
Thanks, my friend.
Thank you.
Happy Thursday, everyone.
Tom Grossafi coming to you fromNashville, Tennessee.
I hope you could hear me.
I hope you could see me.
And I am super excited toannounce a new collaboration.
That means we had to make a newthumbnail.
We got a handsome alert here.
Ring the bell if we have a bellright there.
(00:34):
Mr.
David Whidmer, new contributorhere.
He's coming to us from AEI.ag.
David, there's a littlebackstory.
Welcome to the show.
Thank you so much, Tommy.
Looking forward to thiscollaboration.
I gotta switch us.
I gotta be on the left.
You've got to be on the right.
All right.
Tell everyone how I met you.
SPEAKER_01 (00:55):
Well, we crossed paths in Kansas City several
years ago at the NationalAssociation of Farm
Broadcasters.
We followed up in CommodityClassic there afterwards.
And we were talking about theEscaping 1980 podcast that my
team put together.
And it came together during thesummer of 2020 when things
(01:15):
weren't looking very good in thefarm economy.
Everyone was asking us, is thisgoing to be a repeat of the
1980s farm financial crisis?
That Mark Twain quote alwaysrings true in our ears.
History doesn't repeat itself,but it often rhymes.
And of course, by the time wewrapped up that season of that
podcast, this is the funny part.
We went to the hell of a bullmarket.
(01:37):
China started buying corn.
We got some government payments.
And that's that idea of therhyming and the themes.
There are always concerns, butthere's always differences in
(01:59):
the farm economy.
And we tried to cover that inthat 1980 episode.
Everyone says, I my boss or mymentor or my dad told me don't
repeat the mistakes of the1980s, but very few people ever
got sat down and really toldwhat happened during the 1980s
crisis.
And we tried to do that in thatpodcast season.
SPEAKER_00 (02:17):
Right.
And if folks, if you go toSpotify or Apple or however you
get podcasts, and just GoogleEscaping 1980.
Now, actually, David's beingmodest here because it's it's a
three podcast series, and thisis the first series, maybe 10
episodes.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (02:35):
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (02:36):
And then the second season was Horn Saves America.
SPEAKER_01 (02:40):
So it was an idea of let's revisit the history of the
ethanol boom and how it appliedto the carbon market boom that
was going on a couple years ago.
SPEAKER_00 (02:49):
Okay.
My brother says he wants myspeaker a little higher.
Does that sound better, Jojo?
All right, maybe I waswhispering or something.
All right, we sound good, welook good.
I hope, I hope, I hope it'sgood.
Otherwise, we'll have to redoeverything.
No.
All right, and then the thirdseries.
SPEAKER_01 (03:07):
Nothing borrowed, nothing gained.
So looking through where doesthe money that farmers borrow
come from?
So we talked about the farmcredit system, the local banks,
the farmer Mac, and really helpproducers realize when the Fed
makes a decision, how does thatchange in the Fed funds rate
work its way through the systemand eventually get its way to
(03:29):
farmer level interest rates?
SPEAKER_00 (03:31):
And when that came out, were interest rates still
at pretty much zero and aboutready to explode, or were they
just on the verge of exploding?
SPEAKER_01 (03:38):
It was right at that cusp where inflation was running
and everyone was anticipatingthe Fed to start to raise their
rates, and we were sort ofpriming the pump for people to
think about how do we get fromthe Fed to the farm?
SPEAKER_00 (03:50):
It's interesting because I'd say half the problem
people are in right now isbecause just money spent on
interest.
And although inflation was greatfor landowners and it was great
for the initial explosion ofcrop prices, we then
overproduced.
Now our cost production is high,everything's high.
You know what's high, and wecould talk about it someday on
another episode.
(04:11):
But uh, electricity, insurance,those are the creepers, and then
you know the way I always tellpeople on the interest is every
million you were borrowing youused to pay 30 grand back.
Every million you borrow now,you owe 70 or 80 grand.
So you're there's a magic40,000, 50,000 per million just
gone, and it just cost you thembusiness, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (04:32):
That that's completely correct.
We just did a project, and we Ididn't bring a slide for you
today, but we were looking atthe different cost categories
that have gone up over the lastfew years, and there was this
category we took out seed andfertilizer and crop protection,
and then there's a othervariable expenses, and it was up
a lot, it was a huge surprise.
It's repairs, it's interest,it's insurance, even crop
(04:54):
insurance is up.
So, yes, all these variablecosts of production have really
had a lot of upward pressure,and interest is the one that I
think farmers have really got tofocus on.
And if you're not in aprofitable situation today and
you take on more debt to getthrough to next year, you're
it's a spiral.
You have to figure out a way toget your operation back to
profitability.
Be very cautious with justburning working capital to get
(05:16):
yourself to next year.
SPEAKER_00 (05:18):
Yeah, and then just full disclosure, I'm Italian.
If we don't ever have a slide,we got to talk with our hands
and just do stick figures orsomething.
So uh we're gonna get through.
You did bring some great sites,but I was excited to start the
show, and then I wasn't sure youknow, Joe said our volume wasn't
quite high enough, but we'rerolling with it.
Tell people what you do there atuh what work looks like for you
(05:39):
on a daily level and why peoplesubscribe to your group and and
how you're helping farmers andbusinesses and ag lenders, etc.
SPEAKER_01 (05:47):
Yeah, so I'm an agricultural economist by
training, so uh AEI is ageconomic insights.
We got really creative with ournaming here.
And my business partner, BrentGloy, and I were both at Purdue
University, and we recognizedthere was a gap between what the
what media was able to reportand what academia was able to
report.
And so there was this gap in themiddle for substantive but still
(06:09):
timely insights.
And so we're not breaking news,we're not gonna be uh breaking
the latest estimates for cornersoybeans, but we're gonna break
that down for what it means forfor producers and for the supply
chain, for agriculturalprofessionals that work with
producers.
And so we spend a lot of timethinking about the farm economy,
we spend a lot of time thinkingabout crop cropping decisions
(06:31):
for 2026.
And so we pull this all togetherto really help think about those
farm level decisions and howproducers and those who work
with producers can best positionthemselves for whatever farm
economy we're in.
We spend a lot of so it's kindof like market commentary, but
for farm management.
We really try to drive this backdown to the whole farm and risk
management and decision makingand capital purchases and debt
(06:53):
service, all these things arereally important to the
operation.
SPEAKER_00 (06:56):
And all kidding aside, sometimes the best way to
explain what's going on is withthe picture.
And I think you brought for yourfirst time here at the Agbo
Podcast, you brought a couplepictures.
I'll uh pop those up.
Let's add them to the stagehere.
Let's see this one.
What do we have here?
The old corn keeps moving west.
What do you think of that?
SPEAKER_01 (07:17):
Well, we've been working, so we produce a lot of
charts.
So I'm gonna bring a lot ofcharts to this show.
As many as Tommy will let mebring, he'll probably throw away
a half of them.
But just know the picture'sworth a thousand words, pictures
worth a thousand words AI.
SPEAKER_00 (07:31):
Go ahead, Mr.
David.
Some a lot of people will belistening to this and they won't
be able to see it.
So uh really obviously a lot ofpeople watch us on YouTube.
By the way, thank you forsubscribing to the Ag Bull
YouTube channel.
But for folks listening on Appleand Spotify, we'll always do our
best to try to describe whatthese charts say.
Also, if you would like a copyof these charts, just email us,
(07:53):
just get a hold of us, TG at AGBull.
I could send you these fourcharts.
I just because sometimes Inotice on uh TV when I do TV,
people are like, you know, someof us are listening on XM Radio.
I'm like, Oh, we threw up apicture and you have no clue
what that is.
And this picture is corn acreagekeeps moving west.
SPEAKER_01 (08:12):
So, Tommy, thanks for that.
What we've been watching isstate level changes in corn
acreage, and what wasinteresting is that acreage two
years ago in 2023 was only 4million acres less than where we
are today.
It's kind of hard to imagine I'msaying only 4 million acres
difference.
But the idea is we had a bigcorn year two years ago, we have
a big corn year acreage yearthis year.
(08:34):
So if corn acres are up roughly4 million or 4%, we would
anticipate that all the stateswould raise acres, or all the
states would be about 4% higher.
But that state level data showsthat corn acreage keeps moving
west.
And how this shows up is thestates that gained acres is
basically the central plains,the northern plains, Iowa,
(08:57):
Minnesota, Wisconsin.
The states that didn't addacreage draw a line from
Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois,and east.
So Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan,
these states just didn't addcorn acreage.
I think folks intuitively knowthat corn acreage has moved west
over the last 10 or 15 years.
They're surprised when they seeit's still unfolding, even in
(09:20):
this year when we have a record98 million acres of corn, we
still didn't add acres in thateastern corn belt.
SPEAKER_00 (09:27):
That's interesting.
Were you surprised when thegovernment kept upping corn
acreage and upping corn acreage?
Was your firm surprised?
SPEAKER_01 (09:34):
Yeah, we we have a model that we look at and it's
not a survey, it's just lookingat that price ratio.
So one of the things I try tohelp our clients think about is
how big is the US factory formaking corn and soybeans, and
we're gonna talk about that inthe next slide.
And then we look at that priceratio.
So, how are we gonna allocatethose acres between corn and
(09:54):
soybeans?
And so we our that model, it hasa lot of noise to it, it's not a
great model, but it was pointingto a bigger than 95, bigger than
96 million acre crop.
Uh 98 is at the higher end ofwhat it's was predicting.
So I was surprised it hit that,but it was just signaling a big
factory and it was signaling ashare that was going to be very
(10:15):
favorable for corn.
SPEAKER_00 (10:17):
And uh we did it, we did it.
You know what else I heard, andmaybe you could comment on this.
Maybe I'm going off the railsand we're going sidetracking
here, but the government made uhanother level of crop insurance
a little easier to buy up tothat 95% level.
And with the market so low, Ithink people bought up that
better crop insurance, and it'slike the like the government
(10:40):
almost subsidized us plantingmore corn acres, and then the
farmer was surprised they didit.
So remember earlier in the allwinter and all spring, how the
market was saying plant corn,not beans, plant corn, not
beans, and then when they didit, they're acting, they're
acting shocked, like who thehell planted all this corn?
Well, you guys did because themass said to do it, but then you
(11:01):
forgot to sell it.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (11:03):
So corn had a very strong signal going into this
year.
The outlook was bleak for bothcorn and soybeans, but our
budget estimates were sayingcorn had economic losses, and we
could talk about the differencebetween an economic loss and an
accounting loss, but an economicprojection was like negative 10
to 20 bucks an acre before anygovernment payments came in.
Soybeans were hanging out likenegative 100, negative 110.
(11:25):
And so the signals were justblaring plant corn.
And I think everyone got caughtup in the narrative of it
doesn't look great, and theymissed the fact that corn was
actually looking a little bitbetter than soybeans.
And if we think about corn andsoybeans together, which is what
this slide is trying to look at,we also saw that corn and
(11:46):
soybean acres collectivelyincrease.
So the first way we look at thisis how many acres did we
actually plant together?
So we add those all up, and thatcame to about 179.8 million, so
almost 180.
The second thing we look at atAEI is we say, let's think about
this as a factory.
Sometimes a factory exceedscapacity, sometimes a factory
(12:06):
comes under capacity, and thereare reasons why.
And in corno soybean acreage,it's that prevent plant factor.
Sometimes prevent plaque isprevent plant is bigger than
normal, sometimes it's less thannormal.
So what we did here said, what'sthat factory size?
Because we know actual acreage,we know prevent plant.
What's the factory size?
And what we saw here is from2019 to 2024, we planted on
(12:28):
average 178 million acres ofcorn and soybeans.
The factory size of 2025 was180.3.
So we added the factory expandedby 2 million acres, and I think
that's gonna set the stage forbig production going into 2026
and beyond.
Where do those acres come from?
It came from wheat, it came fromcotton, and I don't see a crop
(12:49):
budget outlook at this time thatsuggests wheat and cotton are
gonna bid those acres back outof corn and soybeans.
I think we're gonna lock it up.
SPEAKER_00 (12:59):
When I go on X, when I go on the interweb, I thought
Dollar Trees and solar panelswere taking all our land.
SPEAKER_01 (13:06):
Well, I have a slide for that.
We could talk about that.
The solar number uh is not quitebig enough to pull a slide for
everything.
SPEAKER_00 (13:16):
People will be like, I like that guy.
If you got a problem, he's got aslide.
Next slide.
Medium farm income, not what itseems.
Do tell.
SPEAKER_01 (13:26):
When the times get lean in the farm economy, I
think folks are reallystruggling to find a measure to
show how bad it is.
And I've been seeing median farmincome used a lot.
And the headline goes somethinglike the median farm income in
2025 is negative$300.
And the insight is half morethan half of all producers are
losing money on their farmingoperation.
(13:49):
Now that sounds sobering, butwhen you look at history, median
farm income is almost alwaysnegative.
In fact, 2025 is the fourthbiggest or fourth highest,
fourth best median farm incomein decades.
And so, what median farm incomeis really telling us is it tells
us about the demographics ofagriculture.
(14:09):
And so there are a lot ofproducers, a lot of those two
million farmers and ranchers outthere that maybe have a
lifestyle or a hobby operation.
These are the farms that areincluded in the USDA statistics.
And so what we see is year inand year out, there are
demographics, and this one overhere all the way to the left.
These are residence producers.
It's about half of all of thetwo million, so there's about a
(14:31):
million individuals out therewho have a farm and they have a
job in town that's their primaryfocus, or maybe they're retired,
they've retired off the farm.
And so what we see here is thatthey have about a thousand
dollars in losses on the farmevery year, and they have an
off-farm job to support thatthat that lifestyle or that that
that project.
You could think about this asyou drive through rural America.
(14:53):
Uh, a few goats, a few horses, abig acreage, and so sweet corn,
a little something going on.
This is not, and this is notthis is not a for-profit, and
they're trying to make it thethe profitability of this farm,
doesn't determine theprofitability of their
household.
Their household is really what'sdriving and enabling that that
farming side of it.
And so then there's anothercategory.
(15:14):
These are these smalleroperations, less than$300,000 in
gross farm sales.
They're focused on their farm,but there's a lot of off-farm
income helping them as well.
So on average, they have aprofitability, but it's a pretty
small profit.
They're reinvesting that profitto grow that operation for the
future.
And then finally, that's that10% of commercial producers,
they have a lot of on-farmincome.
(15:36):
They also have off-farm income.
And I think the other thing I'llmention here is that that
on-farm income looks like a bignumber, but in reality, they
still have to pay their debts.
They have to service their debtswith that number.
So that isn't free and clearcash.
They also have to pay theirhousehold expenses out of that
number.
And so farm profitability isalways tricky because there's a
lot of things going on withthat, but demographics are
(15:57):
really key to keep in mind ifyou think about what happens.
So there are a lot of producersout there where this downturn in
the farm economy is negativelyimpacting their households, but
there's a whole other tranche ofthe farm economy that's more
dependent on their jobs in town.
SPEAKER_00 (16:14):
Okay.
And uh I think we got a littlebreaking news here coming out,
too.
My brother's saying, let's go tothe next slide real quick, he'll
get that loaded up.
Next slide here, survey says, isuh solar projects on farmland
and non-farmland.
I want to go back though, I'mgonna go back one slide and ask
(16:34):
you a question.
SPEAKER_01 (16:35):
Go for it.
SPEAKER_00 (16:35):
If Tommy Grassaffee and Joe Grassoffi, who are
commodity brokers at AgbleTrading, and we go through
Nesvik trading here in Nashvilleand Memphis, and uh a great
client is someone who grows200,000 bushels of corn and
50,000 beans.
How many of those farms arethere?
It's not as many as we think, isthere?
SPEAKER_01 (16:56):
No, so it's that 10 that is all the way over to the
right.
That's where that group would beat.
But let's back that up.
That 10% to the right isactually anybody with more than
$300,000 in economic activity.
And so you think there are twomillion farmers roughly, and
then 10% of those have more than$300,000 in economic activity.
(17:18):
And so that segment that youjust talked about, right?
That's any close to that millionplus, that's going to be even a
smaller share of that.
So we're talking about tens ofthousands of producers, not
hundreds of thousands, which iswhere we see a lot of these
demographic shifts coming from.
SPEAKER_00 (17:35):
All right.
I think we got somethingexciting happen that doesn't
always happen, but you know whatwe have?
Breaking news, breaking news.
We can't make this stuff up.
All right, Jojo loaded it up andhe says, go ahead, Joe.
Trump plans billions for farmerswith taxpayer money.
Politico Trump explores bailout,at least 10 billion for U.S.
(17:58):
farmers.
I saw that uh come across X2while uh we were talking, and uh
this is being recorded at 2 30on uh 10 to 2025.
I gotta tell you something, andthen I'll let you talk.
10 billion isn't a lot of moneyfor how much damage there is out
there financially.
I know 10 billion sounds like alot, but if you take 10 billion
(18:20):
dollars, well, think of it thisway we grow 16 billion bushels
of corn, and if you gave them adollar a bushel, that's 16
billion, right?
We grow four, four and a half,five billion bushels of beans,
that's only two dollars a bushelin beans.
My clients in North Dakota havea dollar seventy-five negative
basis, they need someone just tomake up that dollar 75 to get
(18:41):
close to break-even.
So, anyway, we can keep politicsout of it, but someone's you
know, the flying around on AirForce One and flying around on a
combine are two different thingshere because there's still a big
gap in finance and ag, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (18:56):
Right.
I don't think$10 billion is uhit's it's on the lower side of
what I was expecting.
SPEAKER_00 (19:01):
Say something crazy, we'll get all types of comments
on YouTube.
SPEAKER_01 (19:04):
They'll be like, That guy, he's arrogant.
SPEAKER_00 (19:07):
David doesn't think $10 billion is a lot.
We're folks, we're talking about$10 billion over all the bushels
of corn, all the bushels ofwheat, all the bushels of uh
soybeans, canola, edibles,there's sunflowers, all that
stuff, like uh sugar beet,should price of sugar is
horrible.
There's a lot of problems outthere, David.
Seriously.
SPEAKER_01 (19:27):
I think that you hit the nail on the head.
It's how much slicing of a$10billion pie are we going to do
to get there?
So if we're talking about$10billion to corn and soybeans and
wheat, that might be startgetting there.
But if we have to slice that upwith livestock producers and all
these other crops that they'regonna be needing and wanting
these payments as well, I thinkthat's gonna start to be
(19:50):
relevant.
I think what we're gonna have tofigure out here in the next few
months here is how they're gonnapay for this.
So I think the CCC credit cardis about tapped out.
Uh, I don't think there's$10billion on that.
I think it's a$15 billion max tobegin with.
And so I think the next thing isare they gonna be able to use
tariffs?
And I don't know how thattariff, the tariff revenue is
gonna play into that.
(20:10):
And then the third arm heremight be Congress, and Congress
is is apparently tied up for thenext couple days at least with
some some work, some homeworkthey haven't gotten accomplished
yet.
And so we'll see if they get thegovernment back open.
But I think 10 billion is smallenough that they can probably
wiggle it through with somenon-congressional action, so
maybe that's the motivation forthat smaller number.
(20:30):
But I think it was a$30 billionpro$30 billion in funds that
Congress authorized at the endof 2024 that got paid in 2025.
So that's just some context ofwhy I said$10 billion isn't as
much as I would haveanticipated.
SPEAKER_00 (20:44):
You know how you have a slide for everything?
I got a slide for everything.
This is where the money comesfrom, right here.
The old swipe the card,$10billion.
We're talking about.
Well, we're recording our firstpodcast ever with Mr.
David, and uh, we had somebreaking news here about$10
billion.
It it nonetheless, uh, it'sinteresting.
SPEAKER_01 (21:06):
Okay, as we it's a long ways from the producer's
checkbooks, though.
It's a long ways away from theircash flow statements, and so I
think the government's closedright now, too.
SPEAKER_00 (21:14):
That's funny in itself.
That uh we're like, hey, we gotmoney for you.
Let's go over this next slide.
And I do have I did lose oneclient over here up in Michigan
to solar farms.
He's a really cool kid.
Again, we're meeting with uhDavid from AEI.ag.
That is the website, correct?
That is, yeah.
We have it plastered everywhere.
(21:35):
If they don't know what it isafter this episode, they're a
fool.
Explain to me the solar farmthing.
SPEAKER_01 (21:40):
Well, we've been getting a lot of folks, just
like you mentioned here, saying,Hey, I don't have as many acres
as I did last year because Ilost out my lease to a solar
lease, or I drive down theinterstate I-70, I-80, I-9, and
I see a solar farm going in, andit's really big.
And what's gonna happen?
What's gonna happen with allthis farmland?
So we step back.
I think we're the first team toever do this, and we measured
(22:02):
how many acres of farmland havebeen converted to solar projects
on the map.
If you can see that, those arethe green dots.
The blue dots are non-farmland,so that's you know, desert or
commercial space or the top of abuilding.
These are these are utilityscale projects, and it's
interesting to see how thisplays out.
If you were to roll this back,and we have one of these images
(22:23):
at our site, aei.ag, where ittime-laps over time.
And so if you looked at thisbefore 2020, there weren't many
dots, there weren't manyprojects in what I'd call the
Corn Belt or the Great Plains,and that's where so we look at
this now, and we had anexplosion of activity there,
it's in the heartland, and alsoin Florida and Texas.
That's where we really saw a lotof these new projects come
(22:45):
online.
So the number, 300,000 acres offarmland, 650,000 acres in
total, have been covered bythese large-scale solar
projects.
SPEAKER_00 (22:55):
All right, I like this.
I gotta say, of all the people Ido shows with and whatnot,
you're different, which isunique.
And like any mom would say,they're just jealous, yeah.
Because you bring a differentuh, and we're not 36,000 foot
view, we're even higher thanthat.
You're not nothing we talk aboutdefinitely on our shows uh with
(23:19):
you is gonna make someone do atrade or maybe influence them
for the day.
But it I'll just speak formyself.
Listening to your podcast, youand your group's podcast,
changed the way I was thinkingabout.
And even though we teased you inthe beginning that your podcast
did started when prices wereexploding, and it seemed very
off.
It seemed like, wow, we got abunch of professors who aren't
(23:42):
with the times.
Things repeat themselves,history repeats themselves.
People we we get too cranked upin the egg, and then decisions
made during good times come backto haunt you during bad times,
and I think that's where we areright now.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (23:59):
Exactly the case.
And the rhyme that we wereconcerned about surfacing in
2020, and we talked about this,is inflation followed by
interest rates.
And I think that's this problemthat we found ourselves in, and
hopefully we're through it,right?
But in the 70s, there was a boutof inflation, and then there was
the Paul Volcker 1980, 19 late70s, early 80s inflation hike
(24:23):
to, or excuse me, interest ratehike to calm and curb inflation.
And I think that's the part thatwe're concerned about.
And I think that's still thepiece that a lot of producers
haven't fully thought through.
Where do you think interestrates are gonna be five years
from now?
And we're not going back to that2010 to 2022 era of almost 0%
interest rates, in my opinion.
(24:44):
I think we're gonna see interestrates at a higher level, not
necessarily where we are today,but higher than where we've been
in that rear view mirror look atperspective.
We leaving the 2010 era of 0%interest rates had a lot of
distortion in the in the economyand the farm economy.
And I think we're stillunraveling and unwinding from
that.
SPEAKER_00 (25:04):
Not to mention, David, what happened with if
that wasn't odd enough what wewere doing when you throw in
COVID, the COVID mathematics ofuh taking our deficit from you
know back then 16, 18 trillionto 24 trillion, and now we're in
the 30 trillion.
That it seems like, and we'lltalk about this on another
episode, but I guarantee youcould overlay the United States
(25:26):
deficit of what it is in thevalue of farmland, couldn't you?
SPEAKER_01 (25:30):
That's a good question.
I'll have to I'll have to thinkabout bringing a chart next
time.
I'll have to put that together.
That's a really good point.
SPEAKER_00 (25:35):
We're meeting today with this handsome gentleman
right here, Mr.
David Whidmer.
He's a new contributor throughwith AEI.ag.
I met David through theinterweb, just like you're all
meeting us on this podcast, andtheir podcast they had, it I
don't know what to say changedmy life.
Like, wasn't like I had adrinking problem, and this
podcast sobered me up, but thispodcast challenged me to think.
(25:58):
And now I promise you, I promiseyou, on October 2nd, 2025, if
you go listen to this podcast,it all makes sense.
But when I was walking on atreadmill three, four years ago
listening to this podcast, I waslike, what are these guys
smoking?
Grains are six, seven dollarsfor corn, farmers are
profitable, they're paying ahundred thousand dollars over
(26:18):
list for machinery.
This doesn't make sense.
It all makes sense now by farthe number one podcast you could
listen to in agriculture, betterthan this one, because I don't
think people realize how muchtime and work you guys put into
that podcast series.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (26:35):
It took us a team to put together.
I appreciate you you your yourendorsement.
I also appreciate yourecognizing that um there's a
lot of editing and a lot ofplanning that went into that.
So it's a very different format.
It's it's well done.
We had a great producer andco-host help us put that
together.
So we're really proud of thatoutput.
And we tried to bring themes andlessons that would resonate for
(26:56):
decades, and then that was whatwe were trying to really
accomplish there.
And I and I hope that that playsout.
But as you said earlier, Tommy,it's often the decisions we make
in the good times, in the boomyears, that get us into trouble
and not those bad years, thoselinear decisions.
We're usually trying to just getout of that hole by the time we
get there.
SPEAKER_00 (27:13):
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, I'm glad to call you afriend and a contributor.
I know we talked about doingthis a few years ago, we just
couldn't get it done.
Timing wasn't right.
Timing's right now, and peopleneed you and your group and Agbo
Podcast in this you knowcollaboration, what we're gonna
do.
And not so sure how ofteneveryone's gonna see you guys,
if it'll be every week, everyother week, but we'll take you
as much time and as often as youguys want to do this, we'd love
(27:36):
to have you.
All right.
SPEAKER_01 (27:37):
Well, thanks so much, Tommy.
Appreciate all you do.
SPEAKER_00 (27:39):
And I am not gonna spend a lot of time editing
this.
I'm gonna box it up, and this isgonna be on the interweb in the
next half hour.
But it will be up to date withbreaking news.
Thanks, my friend.
Thank you.
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