July 18, 2025 • 17 mins
ashley@nesvick.com
901-766-4575
Ashley Lowe, associate person at Nesvick Trading Group and cattle market expert, joins the Ag Bull podcast to discuss the unprecedented bull market in cattle. From its origins at pandemic lows to current record highs, Ashley breaks down the complex factors sustaining cattle prices while other commodity markets struggle.
• Ashley is hosting a cattle market meeting in Dodge City, Kansas on August 22nd at the Boot Hill Museum
• The current cattle bull market began with pandemic-related liquidation around 68 cents/pound
• Drought conditions in western Kansas and other regions further reduced the cattle herd
• Unlike typical fund participation that pressures prices lower, funds are helping sustain this rally
• The market consistently finds buyers on breaks, showing remarkable resilience
• Cattle production cycles span multiple years from conception to consumption
• Evidence of heifer retention signals rebuilding has begun but won't impact production until 2027
• Potential market threats include screwworm detected just 270 miles from the US border
• Proposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian beef would further support domestic cattle prices
• Cattle prices historically "take the stairs up and the elevator down" with quick corrections
To attend the August 22nd meeting in Dodge City, contact Ashley at ashley@nesvick.com or call 901-766-4575.
There is a risk of loss in trading futures and options, and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
welcome back the ag bowl podcast.
Happy friday.
This is a ag bowl tradingsegment.
I'm here in nashville,tennessee.
I'm at the nesvic office.
We have offices in both memphisand nashville.
My name is tommgrosafi, youknow that.
But our next guest is AshleyLowe.
Ashley is an AP.
That means associate person atNesvik Trading Group.
(00:31):
Ashley, welcome to the show.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Hi, thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Now, ashley, what people don't know is you are an
absolute expert on cattle andthey have been going up.
But before we talk about cattleand before we talk about your
background, you have someexciting news about a meeting in
Dodge City, kansas.
Do tell my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I do On August 22nd in Dodge City, kansas, at the
Boot Hill Museum.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
The Boot Hill Museum.
Last year I thought you had itat the casino.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
I did this year.
We decided to do a little bitof a venue change.
I think this is going to be alot more fitting.
The museum is a really greatplace.
It's going to be a really greatspot.
So 1-30 August 22nd at themuseum, I'm going to have a
couple of speakers.
I'm going to have Craig Solbergwith Nesbitt Trading Group, I'm
going to have Tony Greer withTG Macro to do the um well, the
(01:23):
macros, I imagine, is what he'sgonna do yeah, that's right.
And then mike sands, our umcattle analysts, will um close
out.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
After that we're gonna have happy hour at the
distillery next door and thendinner at prime on the nine and
how do people, if they want toget signed up for this or know
about this, what's the best wayto get involved in this show?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
They can either call me at 901-766-4575 or email me
just ashley at nesvikcom.
That's N-E-S-V-I-C-K.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
I like it.
Now let's get to the show.
All right, You're going to helpme with the Ag Bowl podcast
occasionally and the new Ag Bowlwebsite, wwwagbowlcom, is
coming out.
It's out there right now.
If you go to agbowlcom you'llsee a website, but we got a new
and improved one where we'regoing to be releasing a lot of
content.
Some is free for the world tofind out and some is premium.
(02:20):
I definitely know you're goingto be helping me on the premium
side with this cattle market.
It's the hottest thing peoplewant to talk about, versus
talking about corn.
You and I and the Nesbitt folkswere out and you know what do
you tell someone about corn?
It was down five and then itwas up five.
I mean cattle, holy cow.
Talk about your background, howyou became a commodity cattle
broker.
I mean you're broker andeverything, but I really think
(02:41):
of you as someone I go to incattle.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Sure, I started in Memphis, tennessee, in 2009.
I was a research analyst forabout 12 years there in Memphis.
I grew up in the Southeast inamateur rodeo and everything and
it always interested me, and soI, um, I, I found a place, I
(03:07):
learned from a lot of reallygreat people and I still you
know, obviously I still am abroker and trader with Nesbitt
and then I rodeo on the side forfun well, I think all the
cowboys out there will uh, youknow that we're going to go off
subject a little bit.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
But that Western lifestyle, that RFD TV and all
those folks they go out to LasVegas for this 10 day show and I
have clients from all over thecountry who love going to Vegas
for the rodeo Right.
It's like December 8th, 20th orsomething.
I mean that's a big deal, butnot.
People grew up Like I grew upoutside Chicago.
(03:45):
I thought like a rodeo wassomething that happened once
while I did.
It's a big deal.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Well, and right now we're coming up on County fair
season too, so every everylittle County around the South
has their own fair and it's it'skind of a busy time of year for
people like me that enjoyrodeos, whether you're competing
or just go to watch.
It's a lot of fun, something todo with the family on a Friday
or Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
You know, I absolutely, and it also it seems
like help me out here.
But people who raise cattle,they a lot of times tend to have
horses right.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh sure you know horses are really useful on on
the ranch, whether you're,whether you're going to check
fences or doctor cattle.
Typically they can get places.
A four-wheeler can't or aside-by-side can't.
They may give you a little bitmore attitude.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
You're talking about using horses for real.
We're not talking about thepeople who have expensive horse
habit.
You're talking really using thehorses on the ranch right,
absolutely, and the horses loveto work too.
Yeah, sometimes when I drivearound in Indiana we go out to a
lake and there's a large Amishcommunity.
(04:58):
My wife always feels bad thatthe horses are pulling.
I say I think they like it.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
I know that my horses like having a job.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Yeah, who the heck wants to sit in a barn all day?
Well, let's talk about onemarket that's not sitting in the
barn.
That's cattle market.
I want to go back a little bit.
Remember.
I said this podcast is going tobe short.
I lied we're going to go longschool.
How did this bull market startin cattle?
I'm going to ask a question.
I think I answered it, but thenyou're going to correct me.
I think this started when weput in the lows during COVID,
(05:29):
when we went to whatever it was.
It was embarrassing 68 cents apound, is that correct?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I think that was part of it.
I really do At that point.
That was a non-drought inducedliquidation.
I think a lot of guys just saidyou know, this is a lot of work
for not a lot of money.
I'm out.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Yeah, and that was ugly.
There was some big, big, bigpain during that period for so
many people in so many differentways.
Some markets benefited, somedidn't.
Cattle definitely had the wrongside of that.
It's that's all changed.
We've also had you talked aboutnon-drought liquidation.
I remember in 21 we had a bigdrought in the northern prairies
(06:11):
, I think, and then they was it22, also in the west.
So go, go over the years, we go.
20, the pandemic, yep then.
Then where was this droughtthat moved cattle around the
country?
Speaker 2 (06:23):
well, the Drought through pretty much dead centers
of the state Kansas, especiallywestern Kansas, took it pretty
hard.
That's where we raised a lot ofwheat pasture cattle.
I think during that time, if Iremember right, wheat was fairly
high-priced so it didn't pay tograze it anyway.
(06:46):
Didn't pay to graze it anywayand cattle were very low priced
so it didn't really pay to putcattle on wheat because they
weren't worth as much as theyotherwise would be.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
And then you flip that around from when wheat made
highs during the Ukraineinvasion, Now wheat's at
multi-year lows and cattle areat all-time highs.
So we flipped.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Yeah, that's right.
In 2021, when we, um when therussia ukraine war started,
wheat shot up like a rocket, andI think that started late
february, which is, um, I don'tknow what, I lost my train of
thought, but well, it started inlate february and then it just
it just keeps going and goingthis market.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I I mean it never ends right.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
And then the wheat market topped out in May and has
basically traded lower since.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah, I mean talk about a long tail on that market
.
Yeah, so corn, wheat and beansas everyone knows who's
listening are not at excitingprices.
We had a great week this week.
We'll take a win for the team,but uh, we're we're still not
doing well.
I don't know if we're like bad,like the socks, or bad, like
the cubs, bad, but uh, grainmarkets have some issues.
(07:57):
The cattle market I spend somuch my day, um, I particularly
on my screen.
I have three cattle tickets up,three, three uh feeder cattle
tickets up.
I don't even have hogs up, Ihave it on a different quote
board, and then you have youroptions, markets and everything
else, but those cattle are justwhipping around daily.
What would you say as far asthe risk management point has
(08:20):
changed in the last few yearshere with cattle?
Obviously LRP would be one ofthem.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
LRP would be a big thing.
I'd also think the fact thatthe funds are very interested in
our market has helped us outfor the better for once.
Normally, when the funds get inthe cattle market, they like to
sell it and depress it and keepit way lower for way longer
than it should be.
This year has obviously beenthe exact opposite.
Not that it doesn't deserve tobe as high as it is now, but I
(08:47):
don't think that we would havegotten here without the fund
participation and the marketjust continuing to rally.
Even on a break, the marketwill recover and find buying at
these lows.
We didn't used to see that 10years ago.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Yeah, Look how we opened up this week.
Monday was ugly Came back.
I don't know.
Did we come back every day?
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday weclosed a little lower back.
I don't know, Did we come backevery day?
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday weclosed a little lower Friday.
I don't know.
We could be unchanged on theweek.
For all I know we could be up alittle.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Yeah, I mean we did not take out our low from Monday
today.
I kind of looked like we mightfor a little bit, but as usual,
the market found buyers and Ithink that that's probably due
to next week.
The index is probably going toprint somewhere over three 25.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Cash will not break, and a lot of times too.
What we've seen more so thisyear than normal is the board
will break six or $7 and thecash will not like a room or
vice, uh rating, a packing planor something.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Anything.
You screw worm.
Let's go over all the dramawe've had right sure.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean, we've had threats of plant closures, we've
had, you know, up the screwworm is.
It's not a matter of if, butwhen it gets here, and you know
that is that is a big risk toour market right now.
I do think that when the screwroom is announced, we will be
lower for a day or two or three,but eventually, once again, if
(10:19):
the cash does not break, I thinkthe market will still be in
pretty good shape.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Let's talk about what .
Maybe, if someone's a fan of mypodcast or whatever it.
The cattle herd versus hogs,like if, if, if there's a
disease in the hogs, whatever wecan rebuild so much quicker.
The cycle from start to finish,from the time a calf is
conceived till the time you'reeating a burger, is multiple,
(10:45):
multiple years, correctabsolutely so.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
let's say we are seeing some heifer retention
right now.
I do think that there'sdefinitely some heifer retention
going on in pockets of thecountry right now.
I do also think that there aresome guys that are just going to
ring the register and selltheir heifers, take them to the
sale bar and maybe they'll endup at another home as a
(11:10):
replacement.
You know, you never know.
But so far, year to date, Ithink, our auction receipts are
down about 200,000 head on theheifers compared to a year ago.
So to me that may not be thebest way to track it, but that's
the data that we have and it'sstarting to show some heifer
retention.
So you retain those heifersthis year, you maybe breed them
(11:32):
in the fall and nine monthslater you have a calf and then
14 months later or, as we'refeeding them right now, it'll be
15 or 16 months later they endup on your plate.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Well, that's making me hungry.
We'll probably go out for steaktonight.
Huh, we're in Nashville.
We're with Ashley Lowe.
She is an AP of Nesvik TradingGroup.
She's having a meeting in DodgeCity.
We're going to talk a few moreminutes about what you need to
look out for.
We're halfway through the year.
We're actually a little further.
We're in July.
It's an exciting market.
I know she gets up early, goesto bed late, she always answers
her phone, she has a, withoutsaying, she has a healthy book
(12:09):
of cattle business and yourcustomers love you and that's so
important that you love whatyou do.
Your customers love you andyou're continuing the education
process here.
What are some things we have tolook out for the next few
months?
Speaker 2 (12:32):
I think the next few months we will most likely have
a APHAS announcement ofscrewworm being somewhere in the
United States.
I think that we definitely, Iobviously keep my ear to the
ground for that.
You know that you just youdon't know when they're going to
release that sort ofinformation.
I'm obviously tracking itcoming up north through Mexico.
The latest one we found wasjust 270 miles south of the
border north through Mexico.
The latest one we found wasjust 270 miles south of the
(12:55):
border.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
That is dangerously close.
We are imminent.
Wow, that's scary.
Let's talk tariffs.
We didn't talk about that.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Oh sure, the 50% tariff on Brazil.
We import a lot of grindmaterials from Brazil.
That's a big thing.
Right now, cows are bringingyou know 160, 180.
That price will increase if wehave to pay a 50% tariff on
Brazilian beef.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Yeah, let's just hope that was a starting point, not
a finishing point.
What about what's going on withcattle coming in from Canada?
So we're America, we got north,south.
It's like everything you couldever add to a bullish market.
You know what would be reallybad is if they wouldn't let us
import cattle from Mexico.
Yeah, that'd be bad.
You know what would be reallybad is if they put a tariff on
Brazil.
Yeah, that'd be well bad.
(13:35):
When I say bad, it's bullish,but it sounds weird.
I think people are tired ofthis bull market.
I think people would like tosee cattle trade both ways.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I think.
So You've got to think there'sprobably a break in here
somewhere.
It's just can it sustain it?
Can it be on a sustained break?
Cattle is notorious for takingthe elevator up, or taking the
stairs up and the elevator down.
It'll take you weeks and weeks,or months and months, to put
(14:07):
$20, $30 on the market and we'lltake it away in four or five
days.
On some bad news.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Rumors.
We have rumors.
I was listening to a radio showthe other day and they said
this bull market's so old itjust stepped up to the bar and
ordered a drink.
What do you think of that?
Speaker 2 (14:21):
I think that's probably right, but I think that
right now we've just startedeffort retention, which should
make the bull market continueplus some.
2027 is probably the next timethat we're going to see beef
production increase due to herdsize, not weight, and feeding
(14:44):
the cattle longer.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
We're talking cattle, we're talking mathematics,
we're talking making baby cattleand we're going to talk a lot
more about that.
Let's finish the show.
Number one thank you for comingon.
You're in Nashville today.
We're recording live in theNesvik studios.
You're an AP of Nesvik Trading,so am I.
This is the Agable TradingPodcast.
We're with Ashley Lowe.
Tell everyone one more time howthey can get ahold of you where
(15:08):
your show is that beautifullineup.
We want to fill that room outthere.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Sure they can email me at ashley at nesviccom.
They can call me 901-766-4575.
You can also text that number.
August 22nd, Dodge City, Kansas, at the Boot Heel Museum, From
1.30 to 5, we're going to haveameeting.
(15:32):
I have Craig Solberg, who isour meteorologist and resident
grain expert, Then we will haveTG Macro, Tony Greer with the
macro part and then MikeSandsands who is nesvik trading
group and also um mbs research.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Then after the meeting we will have happy hour
at the boot hill distillery anddinner at prime on the nine
sounds good, I'll be out thereand, uh, we're going to be going
live, we're going to berecording some stuff, we're
going to go live, I'll probablytape it and then, uh, but we
want people.
People are getting used tocoming back out to meetings.
They're ready for meetings,unlike if this was a grain
(16:12):
meeting.
You and I spoke the other night.
I said you will have a packedroom.
This is a meeting about cattle,macro markets, weather.
This should be an excitinggroup out there.
You also help people hedge, uh,corn and wheat.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
I imagine more wheat than corn, huh more wheat than
corn here lately, for sure forsure.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Yeah, let's hope we get these grain markets going
back up, but we're going to havea harvest here 30, 60, 60, 90
days away from a big harvest,and it looks like we're a lot
closer to a big harvest than abad harvest.
I always say I'm in the bushelbusiness.
Let's not swear off big bushels, but we still need to find a
home for them.
With that we're going to wrapup the show.
Folks, you know how to get ahold of me.
(16:50):
I'm going to list all thisgreat stuff at the bottom of the
podcast Visiting here withAshley co-worker, big meeting,
Dodge City, kansas, tom Grisoffof the Egg Bowl podcast, ashley
Lowe AP and Nesvik Trading.
We'll see you all next time.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Bye, thank you.
welcome back the ag bowl podcast.
Happy friday.
This is a ag bowl tradingsegment.
I'm here in nashville,tennessee.
I'm at the nesvic office.
We have offices in both memphisand nashville.
My name is tommgrosafi, youknow that.
But our next guest is AshleyLowe.
Ashley is an AP.
That means associate person atNesvik Trading Group.
(00:31):
Ashley, welcome to the show.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Hi, thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Now, ashley, what people don't know is you are an
absolute expert on cattle andthey have been going up.
But before we talk about cattleand before we talk about your
background, you have someexciting news about a meeting in
Dodge City, kansas.
Do tell my friend.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
I do On August 22nd in Dodge City, kansas, at the
Boot Hill Museum.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
The Boot Hill Museum.
Last year I thought you had itat the casino.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
I did this year.
We decided to do a little bitof a venue change.
I think this is going to be alot more fitting.
The museum is a really greatplace.
It's going to be a really greatspot.
So 1-30 August 22nd at themuseum, I'm going to have a
couple of speakers.
I'm going to have Craig Solbergwith Nesbitt Trading Group, I'm
going to have Tony Greer withTG Macro to do the um well, the
(01:23):
macros, I imagine, is what he'sgonna do yeah, that's right.
And then mike sands, our umcattle analysts, will um close
out.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
After that we're gonna have happy hour at the
distillery next door and thendinner at prime on the nine and
how do people, if they want toget signed up for this or know
about this, what's the best wayto get involved in this show?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
They can either call me at 901-766-4575 or email me
just ashley at nesvikcom.
That's N-E-S-V-I-C-K.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
I like it.
Now let's get to the show.
All right, You're going to helpme with the Ag Bowl podcast
occasionally and the new Ag Bowlwebsite, wwwagbowlcom, is
coming out.
It's out there right now.
If you go to agbowlcom you'llsee a website, but we got a new
and improved one where we'regoing to be releasing a lot of
content.
Some is free for the world tofind out and some is premium.
(02:20):
I definitely know you're goingto be helping me on the premium
side with this cattle market.
It's the hottest thing peoplewant to talk about, versus
talking about corn.
You and I and the Nesbitt folkswere out and you know what do
you tell someone about corn?
It was down five and then itwas up five.
I mean cattle, holy cow.
Talk about your background, howyou became a commodity cattle
broker.
I mean you're broker andeverything, but I really think
(02:41):
of you as someone I go to incattle.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
Sure, I started in Memphis, tennessee, in 2009.
I was a research analyst forabout 12 years there in Memphis.
I grew up in the Southeast inamateur rodeo and everything and
it always interested me, and soI, um, I, I found a place, I
(03:07):
learned from a lot of reallygreat people and I still you
know, obviously I still am abroker and trader with Nesbitt
and then I rodeo on the side forfun well, I think all the
cowboys out there will uh, youknow that we're going to go off
subject a little bit.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
But that Western lifestyle, that RFD TV and all
those folks they go out to LasVegas for this 10 day show and I
have clients from all over thecountry who love going to Vegas
for the rodeo Right.
It's like December 8th, 20th orsomething.
I mean that's a big deal, butnot.
People grew up Like I grew upoutside Chicago.
(03:45):
I thought like a rodeo wassomething that happened once
while I did.
It's a big deal.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Well, and right now we're coming up on County fair
season too, so every everylittle County around the South
has their own fair and it's it'skind of a busy time of year for
people like me that enjoyrodeos, whether you're competing
or just go to watch.
It's a lot of fun, something todo with the family on a Friday
or Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
You know, I absolutely, and it also it seems
like help me out here.
But people who raise cattle,they a lot of times tend to have
horses right.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh sure you know horses are really useful on on
the ranch, whether you're,whether you're going to check
fences or doctor cattle.
Typically they can get places.
A four-wheeler can't or aside-by-side can't.
They may give you a little bitmore attitude.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
You're talking about using horses for real.
We're not talking about thepeople who have expensive horse
habit.
You're talking really using thehorses on the ranch right,
absolutely, and the horses loveto work too.
Yeah, sometimes when I drivearound in Indiana we go out to a
lake and there's a large Amishcommunity.
(04:58):
My wife always feels bad thatthe horses are pulling.
I say I think they like it.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
I know that my horses like having a job.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Yeah, who the heck wants to sit in a barn all day?
Well, let's talk about onemarket that's not sitting in the
barn.
That's cattle market.
I want to go back a little bit.
Remember.
I said this podcast is going tobe short.
I lied we're going to go longschool.
How did this bull market startin cattle?
I'm going to ask a question.
I think I answered it, but thenyou're going to correct me.
I think this started when weput in the lows during COVID,
(05:29):
when we went to whatever it was.
It was embarrassing 68 cents apound, is that correct?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I think that was part of it.
I really do At that point.
That was a non-drought inducedliquidation.
I think a lot of guys just saidyou know, this is a lot of work
for not a lot of money.
I'm out.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Yeah, and that was ugly.
There was some big, big, bigpain during that period for so
many people in so many differentways.
Some markets benefited, somedidn't.
Cattle definitely had the wrongside of that.
It's that's all changed.
We've also had you talked aboutnon-drought liquidation.
I remember in 21 we had a bigdrought in the northern prairies
(06:11):
, I think, and then they was it22, also in the west.
So go, go over the years, we go.
20, the pandemic, yep then.
Then where was this droughtthat moved cattle around the
country?
Speaker 2 (06:23):
well, the Drought through pretty much dead centers
of the state Kansas, especiallywestern Kansas, took it pretty
hard.
That's where we raised a lot ofwheat pasture cattle.
I think during that time, if Iremember right, wheat was fairly
high-priced so it didn't pay tograze it anyway.
(06:46):
Didn't pay to graze it anywayand cattle were very low priced
so it didn't really pay to putcattle on wheat because they
weren't worth as much as theyotherwise would be.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
And then you flip that around from when wheat made
highs during the Ukraineinvasion, Now wheat's at
multi-year lows and cattle areat all-time highs.
So we flipped.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Yeah, that's right.
In 2021, when we, um when therussia ukraine war started,
wheat shot up like a rocket, andI think that started late
february, which is, um, I don'tknow what, I lost my train of
thought, but well, it started inlate february and then it just
it just keeps going and goingthis market.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I I mean it never ends right.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
And then the wheat market topped out in May and has
basically traded lower since.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Yeah, I mean talk about a long tail on that market
.
Yeah, so corn, wheat and beansas everyone knows who's
listening are not at excitingprices.
We had a great week this week.
We'll take a win for the team,but uh, we're we're still not
doing well.
I don't know if we're like bad,like the socks, or bad, like
the cubs, bad, but uh, grainmarkets have some issues.
(07:57):
The cattle market I spend somuch my day, um, I particularly
on my screen.
I have three cattle tickets up,three, three uh feeder cattle
tickets up.
I don't even have hogs up, Ihave it on a different quote
board, and then you have youroptions, markets and everything
else, but those cattle are justwhipping around daily.
What would you say as far asthe risk management point has
(08:20):
changed in the last few yearshere with cattle?
Obviously LRP would be one ofthem.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
LRP would be a big thing.
I'd also think the fact thatthe funds are very interested in
our market has helped us outfor the better for once.
Normally, when the funds get inthe cattle market, they like to
sell it and depress it and keepit way lower for way longer
than it should be.
This year has obviously beenthe exact opposite.
Not that it doesn't deserve tobe as high as it is now, but I
(08:47):
don't think that we would havegotten here without the fund
participation and the marketjust continuing to rally.
Even on a break, the marketwill recover and find buying at
these lows.
We didn't used to see that 10years ago.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Yeah, Look how we opened up this week.
Monday was ugly Came back.
I don't know.
Did we come back every day?
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday weclosed a little lower back.
I don't know, Did we come backevery day?
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday weclosed a little lower Friday.
I don't know.
We could be unchanged on theweek.
For all I know we could be up alittle.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Yeah, I mean we did not take out our low from Monday
today.
I kind of looked like we mightfor a little bit, but as usual,
the market found buyers and Ithink that that's probably due
to next week.
The index is probably going toprint somewhere over three 25.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
Cash will not break, and a lot of times too.
What we've seen more so thisyear than normal is the board
will break six or $7 and thecash will not like a room or
vice, uh rating, a packing planor something.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Anything.
You screw worm.
Let's go over all the dramawe've had right sure.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean, we've had threats of plant closures, we've
had, you know, up the screwworm is.
It's not a matter of if, butwhen it gets here, and you know
that is that is a big risk toour market right now.
I do think that when the screwroom is announced, we will be
lower for a day or two or three,but eventually, once again, if
(10:19):
the cash does not break, I thinkthe market will still be in
pretty good shape.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Let's talk about what .
Maybe, if someone's a fan of mypodcast or whatever it.
The cattle herd versus hogs,like if, if, if there's a
disease in the hogs, whatever wecan rebuild so much quicker.
The cycle from start to finish,from the time a calf is
conceived till the time you'reeating a burger, is multiple,
(10:45):
multiple years, correctabsolutely so.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
let's say we are seeing some heifer retention
right now.
I do think that there'sdefinitely some heifer retention
going on in pockets of thecountry right now.
I do also think that there aresome guys that are just going to
ring the register and selltheir heifers, take them to the
sale bar and maybe they'll endup at another home as a
(11:10):
replacement.
You know, you never know.
But so far, year to date, Ithink, our auction receipts are
down about 200,000 head on theheifers compared to a year ago.
So to me that may not be thebest way to track it, but that's
the data that we have and it'sstarting to show some heifer
retention.
So you retain those heifersthis year, you maybe breed them
(11:32):
in the fall and nine monthslater you have a calf and then
14 months later or, as we'refeeding them right now, it'll be
15 or 16 months later they endup on your plate.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Well, that's making me hungry.
We'll probably go out for steaktonight.
Huh, we're in Nashville.
We're with Ashley Lowe.
She is an AP of Nesvik TradingGroup.
She's having a meeting in DodgeCity.
We're going to talk a few moreminutes about what you need to
look out for.
We're halfway through the year.
We're actually a little further.
We're in July.
It's an exciting market.
I know she gets up early, goesto bed late, she always answers
her phone, she has a, withoutsaying, she has a healthy book
(12:09):
of cattle business and yourcustomers love you and that's so
important that you love whatyou do.
Your customers love you andyou're continuing the education
process here.
What are some things we have tolook out for the next few
months?
Speaker 2 (12:32):
I think the next few months we will most likely have
a APHAS announcement ofscrewworm being somewhere in the
United States.
I think that we definitely, Iobviously keep my ear to the
ground for that.
You know that you just youdon't know when they're going to
release that sort ofinformation.
I'm obviously tracking itcoming up north through Mexico.
The latest one we found wasjust 270 miles south of the
border north through Mexico.
The latest one we found wasjust 270 miles south of the
(12:55):
border.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
That is dangerously close.
We are imminent.
Wow, that's scary.
Let's talk tariffs.
We didn't talk about that.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Oh sure, the 50% tariff on Brazil.
We import a lot of grindmaterials from Brazil.
That's a big thing.
Right now, cows are bringingyou know 160, 180.
That price will increase if wehave to pay a 50% tariff on
Brazilian beef.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Yeah, let's just hope that was a starting point, not
a finishing point.
What about what's going on withcattle coming in from Canada?
So we're America, we got north,south.
It's like everything you couldever add to a bullish market.
You know what would be reallybad is if they wouldn't let us
import cattle from Mexico.
Yeah, that'd be bad.
You know what would be reallybad is if they put a tariff on
Brazil.
Yeah, that'd be well bad.
(13:35):
When I say bad, it's bullish,but it sounds weird.
I think people are tired ofthis bull market.
I think people would like tosee cattle trade both ways.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I think.
So You've got to think there'sprobably a break in here
somewhere.
It's just can it sustain it?
Can it be on a sustained break?
Cattle is notorious for takingthe elevator up, or taking the
stairs up and the elevator down.
It'll take you weeks and weeks,or months and months, to put
(14:07):
$20, $30 on the market and we'lltake it away in four or five
days.
On some bad news.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
Rumors.
We have rumors.
I was listening to a radio showthe other day and they said
this bull market's so old itjust stepped up to the bar and
ordered a drink.
What do you think of that?
Speaker 2 (14:21):
I think that's probably right, but I think that
right now we've just startedeffort retention, which should
make the bull market continueplus some.
2027 is probably the next timethat we're going to see beef
production increase due to herdsize, not weight, and feeding
(14:44):
the cattle longer.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
We're talking cattle, we're talking mathematics,
we're talking making baby cattleand we're going to talk a lot
more about that.
Let's finish the show.
Number one thank you for comingon.
You're in Nashville today.
We're recording live in theNesvik studios.
You're an AP of Nesvik Trading,so am I.
This is the Agable TradingPodcast.
We're with Ashley Lowe.
Tell everyone one more time howthey can get ahold of you where
(15:08):
your show is that beautifullineup.
We want to fill that room outthere.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Sure they can email me at ashley at nesviccom.
They can call me 901-766-4575.
You can also text that number.
August 22nd, Dodge City, Kansas, at the Boot Heel Museum, From
1.30 to 5, we're going to haveameeting.
(15:32):
I have Craig Solberg, who isour meteorologist and resident
grain expert, Then we will haveTG Macro, Tony Greer with the
macro part and then MikeSandsands who is nesvik trading
group and also um mbs research.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Then after the meeting we will have happy hour
at the boot hill distillery anddinner at prime on the nine
sounds good, I'll be out thereand, uh, we're going to be going
live, we're going to berecording some stuff, we're
going to go live, I'll probablytape it and then, uh, but we
want people.
People are getting used tocoming back out to meetings.
They're ready for meetings,unlike if this was a grain
(16:12):
meeting.
You and I spoke the other night.
I said you will have a packedroom.
This is a meeting about cattle,macro markets, weather.
This should be an excitinggroup out there.
You also help people hedge, uh,corn and wheat.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
I imagine more wheat than corn, huh more wheat than
corn here lately, for sure forsure.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Yeah, let's hope we get these grain markets going
back up, but we're going to havea harvest here 30, 60, 60, 90
days away from a big harvest,and it looks like we're a lot
closer to a big harvest than abad harvest.
I always say I'm in the bushelbusiness.
Let's not swear off big bushels, but we still need to find a
home for them.
With that we're going to wrapup the show.
Folks, you know how to get ahold of me.
(16:50):
I'm going to list all thisgreat stuff at the bottom of the
podcast Visiting here withAshley co-worker, big meeting,
Dodge City, kansas, tom Grisoffof the Egg Bowl podcast, ashley
Lowe AP and Nesvik Trading.
We'll see you all next time.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Bye, thank you.
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