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June 6, 2025 13 mins

Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading Group & Don Wick from RRFN talk politics and markets. 

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:11):
happy friday everyone .
Tom grisafi here at nesvictrading in nashville.
I'm an ap associated person.
We do business as ag bulltrading.
Now this is the ag bull mediachannel.
As you know, on fridays we liketo wrap up the week with the
one and only Mr Don Wick.
Bring him in Red River FarmNetwork.
We got a nice little list.
We took some notes before theshow and I filled up a whole

(00:32):
page.
Stage is yours, but I'm goingto throw out the first.
Stage is yours, but I'll throwyou a first question.
If I say the word cash cattle,what do you say?

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Wow, I guess that's about it.
You take a look at what we'removing these prices up $10 out
of whack.
It is pretty amazing.
You tell me, Tommy, are we justthat tight in this cash cattle
situation, or what are we seeingin here?
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (00:57):
well, we do a morning conference call every morning
at NASVIC.
The Nashville team and a bunchof people call in and part of
this is just from not gettingthose cattle from Mexico.
I'm not sure exactly how manycattle are coming over from
Canada.
There's a lot of moving partsbut the screw worm the inventory

(01:17):
of cattle was extremely tightand then when we stopped
bringing in cattle from Mexico,that didn't help.
Not to mention demand's.
Good People are consuming.
Stores right now have to go getbought.
They're buying pork and beeftoday to get ready for 4th of
July, so it is June 6th, butthey have to place those orders
so they can get that meat intothe store here.

(01:39):
So it's a wild ride.
June live cattle today tradedup like $3.85, I believe, close
to $4.
June options expired and we'retrading at prices.
If someone had told you cattle,we're going to go here six
months ago, they would havethought you were fibbing.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Yeah, and, like you said, it's amazing the demand
has held up.
Is it kind of a rising tideraises all ships kind of thing?
Is it hog prices, prices, arethey coming along with it?

Speaker 1 (02:06):
yeah, that's what I'm thinking and I've heard from
some hog producers.
There's some disease trouble.
But when you look at all themonths in hogs you're going to
put three, four dollars uh three, four cents on uh beef every
day.
You're not just going to havehogs stay there.
The the gap between where uhcattle prices and beef and pork
boy.
I talked to a friend of mine.
He's a hog producer and he saidhe's making margin calls.

(02:28):
He was heavily hedged out formultiple months and hogs
starting to put on two a day.
So it's it's nice to see thatis one bright spot in
agriculture when so many peoplefeel like agriculture struggling
not from the ranchersperspective, correct?

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Yeah, exactly, it's a kind of rare error that we're
dealing with in this cattlemarket and it's fun to see.

Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yeah, all right.
I don't know if you were on theinterweb yesterday.
Was there some spat orsomething I need to know about?
Was there some bromance thatbroke up?
What happened yesterday, don?

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Well, of course we all saw the headlines between
President Trump and Elon Musk.
There was a lot of back andforth, although I think the
staff was trying to get thosetwo together and calm things
down here at the end of the weekafter that.
But what I find interesting inall that is President Trump also
had a conversation yesterdaywith Chinese President Xi.
Of course that's a hugesituation, for ag Trade was the
big part of that discussion.
Both Xi and Trump afterwardssaid it was a good call.

(03:35):
They both invited the other tocome to their respective
countries.
Trump talked that a meetingwould happen soon Big news, I
would think, for agriculture.
But it kind of got lost in thenews cycle with all of the Elon
drama that we had yesterday.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
Yeah, and right here on my phone looking at X.
I do have breaking news from 13minutes ago and we are
recording this at 145 on FridayTrump meeting with China on June
9th in London.
So Trump's supposed to meetwith China on June 9th in London
.
Look at me giving you the newslive on a recording.

(04:05):
All right, we'll be here allweek.
What else do you have?
So you're right, that shouldhave been huge news.
The grain should have reactedpositively, the stock market
should have reacted positively,but Tesla traded down like 16%,
they said.
Elon Musk personally lost $30billion yesterday just on that
little he said.
She said lover's quarrel there,so they went from best of

(04:29):
friends to enemies prettyquickly.
Yeah, I mean, who knows?
I have to tell you it was just.
I went home and I sat on thecouch and I was like, did that
really happen?
You have the world's richestman and some would say the
world's most powerful manarguing like little kids on the

(04:52):
internet.
What a time to be alive.

Speaker 2 (04:55):
It is.
It's pretty dramatic, prettyfunny stuff.
Also this week in news,president Trump put out his
fiscal 2026 budget proposal.
For agriculture, they arelooking at a $23 billion spend
for USDA.
That's down about $7 billionfrom what we have here in 2025.

(05:17):
This proposal would also takesome pretty big cuts out of some
of the traditional ag programsFSA looking at a cut of about
nearly $400 million.
Nrcs there would take a whackof about $800 million looking at
dropping a lot of the technicalassistance that we have for
conservation programs.
Keep in mind, though, it'sCongress that puts out the money

(05:41):
.
They authorize the dollars, nomatter if it's Trump or whoever
is sitting in the Oval Office.
They don't pay a lot ofattention to these budget
proposals, but it does kind ofgive us a frame of reference of
what the administration islooking at as we go into another
budget cycle.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
Yeah, interesting times On my end on the outside
market just incrediblevolatility.
Yesterday, when those twostarted fighting, we had a big,
rather significant sell-off instocks that we've since bounced.
Today had a nice rise in stocks.
Gold was active this week.
Bitcoin was active this week.
I would say I spent the mosttime if I in this office I have

(06:16):
three screens.
All my meats are on the rightand then grains are in the
middle and outsides are on theleft I probably spent the most
time watching the meats.
Not necessarily that peoplewere actively hedging.
I feel like people are hedgedor buying LRP insurance already.
It's funny, don, as the marketkeeps going up, people sometimes
do less because why hedge?
It just goes up $3, $4 everyday.

(06:38):
Right, but that's not how thisends.
I've seen some big, big bullmarkets and when this ends, it
could it's not, it could be ugly.
It's almost guaranteed to beugly because there's so much
energy in in this cattle marketand if cattle continue to go up
and we hurt demand that thatcould be a problem.
But everyone you know I workwith some smart people They've

(06:58):
thought this is going to happenfor three months.
It's not happening.
I don't know.
Have you guys changed youreating habits up there in Grand
Forks?
No, we've still got a lot ofsteak.
You're laughing, that's not atrick question.
I mean is Mrs Wick making youramen noodles?
Have you changed anything Not?

Speaker 2 (07:17):
at all.
We had steak last night andribs this last uh weekend.
So yeah, we're, we haven'tchanged this media menu at all
good stuff.

Speaker 1 (07:25):
Well, speaking of good stuff, I heard you got to
spend some time with the futurefolks in agriculture in north
dakota.
You want to talk about that alittle bit?

Speaker 2 (07:32):
north dakota ffa had their convention this week.
I always love whether it's wecover all three states that
we're in north dak, dakota,minnesota and South Dakota and
go to the national meeting, andto me it just recharges our
battery every time we get achance to get connected with
these young people.
You got to be prettyenthusiastic about what the
future is for this business.
When you see those young menand women in the blue and gold

(07:53):
jackets.
They just they shine.
They really are enthusiasticand are so sharp.
It's pretty gratifying to sitin the audience and see what
we've got coming behind us.

Speaker 1 (08:05):
That's awesome.
Well, prices go up, prices godown, but we've got to be
bringing in people, the youngerones Several businesses I've
been associated with.
But when a business stopsrecruiting young talent and
retaining them not just like,hey, we hired a bunch of people
and then you look around twoyears later they're not there
when businesses can't hire youngpeople and retain them, it's,

(08:29):
it's tough on the business,right?
You're even seeing that in yourown.
Our dear friend Randy's gettingready to retire, right?

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Broadcasters here, yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:42):
Well, we're going to have to get them on the show and
get one or two more podcasts inwith them.
But to get those young peopleto do ag media, ag journalism,
agriculture In the old days wewere losing a tremendous amount
of talent out of North Dakotaand Minnesota.
I felt like they were going tothe big cities, to Minneapolis
or Chicago, and I feel afterCOVID people kind of started to

(09:04):
like living out in the countryagain.
It's become very popular, in myopinion.
But we need to stay optimisticfor the future of agriculture
and when you go to a meetinglike that, you feel good leaving
Don.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
I really do, and attendance is up.
They've got membership that'son the increase as well, which
says a lot.
Their biggest challenge is theydon't have enough ag teachers.
That's the one hurt that theyhave.
There's not enough teachers tomeet the demand they have for
young people going into the agclasses.
Talk with the state FFA advisorand they're getting calls from

(09:38):
schools wanting to add a new agprogram or expand their program
and there's just not enoughteachers that are available to
get that job done.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
That's interesting.
Well, I do have a littleoptimism.
I noticed a tweet here late inthe day, my friend BJ Split.
He put out a chart on X.
Give Him Credit.
He said December 26 cornquietly closed on the highs of
the year and that's a little bitof optimism.
I do feel like these grains area little bit undervalued but
they could stay undervalued fora long time.
It's like when someone says thehousing market's soft, yeah

(10:10):
well, it could stay soft foryears.
It could also stay bid foryears.
But when you look at all thethings trading in the world the
stock market coming back, allthe things trading American ag
meats on the highs, corn feelscheap, it just does.
And with that December corntoday touched $4.50.
Note July options folks.
July border trade optionsexpire two weeks from today.

(10:32):
Could be some fireworks.
We go home over the weekend alleyes on the weather how would
you say the weather, and thecrops look up north Don.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
You know, some of these stands are a little bit
tough.
We've got some heat now and itshould push through, but we had
a lot of crustingusting and wehad a spring that went from 90
degrees and 40 mile an hourwinds to cold and wet and uh,
that combination made it prettytough on on corn, sugar, beet,
soybeans, whatever, trying tojust uh get up and get out of

(11:00):
the ground.
So, um, it's, it's coming, butit's a little bit slower than
what I think a lot of guys wouldlike to see.
So a little bit of heatwouldn't hurt, correct?
Not at all.
We'd take it.
We'd take another shot of rainhere as well.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
Well, just put your wish list together and a little
rain, everything perfect.
All right With that.
Border Trade, kcm MinneapolisWeek closed on the highs today.
A little bit of optimism inwheat.
Another Twitter friend wasshowing that the wheat was
starting to cross the 50-daymoving average, starting to get
some positiveness.
We need that Our friends upnorth will start harvesting.

(11:34):
When do you figure we startharvesting spring wheat?
First few weeks of August.

Speaker 2 (11:39):
Yeah, late July, early August, kind of depending
on how this crop matures.

Speaker 1 (11:44):
It comes fast 60 days away from harvest yeah, it
comes fast.
It comes 60 days away fromharvest yeah, it comes fast.
And very few producers havevery much wheat sold or hedged
or protected, because springwheat and other wheats have
spent so much time here in thesewer of prices that no one was
in a hurry to lock in a dollarloss.
Right, we'll see as we come outof that With that.
Anything else you want to talkabout, mr Wick?

(12:05):
It's okay, it's a short show,as always.
See as we come out of that withthat.
Anything else you want to talkabout, mr wick, it's okay, it's
a short show, as always, we'regoing to get a lot of chance to
do these.
But uh, if nothing else, talkabout yourself.
How do people get yournewsletter?

Speaker 2 (12:14):
uh, we have a newsletter goes out every monday
called farm net news, producedby the red river farm network.
Uh, just go online to ourwebsite, rrfncom, and sign up.
We'd love to have you subscribe.
Well that's awesome.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
Tommy Grisafi, ag Bull Trading.
Ag Bull Media.
Mr Don Wick, red River FarmNetwork.
This is your weekly recap.
Of course, we got to ask youlike and subscribe, jojo.
Show them all the places theycan click and see us here.
Change that backdrop there andsee how fast Joe is on the
clicking, how fast he's looking,he's scrolling, he's like I'm
going to get it up.

(12:47):
He's looking, joe.
Joe, let me show you where youcan click, like and subscribe.
Hold on, don't anybody move.
Right here, right here, wecould do it right there.
There, it is All right.
Those are all our social medias.
With this.
Now, you know that noteverything goes perfect.
All our social medias with this.

(13:08):
Now, you know that noteverything goes perfect.
There's real people clickingreal buttons.
But if you're involved inagriculture, get a little bit
more optimistic as we go homehere this weekend and we'll take
it from there.
We'll see you next week.
Thanks everyone.
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