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June 3, 2025 • 17 mins

Tommy Grisafi & Don Wick talk Markets & Politics!

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:05):
well, happy friday everyone.
Tom grisafi with ag bulltrading.
I'm an ap over here at nesvictrading group, based out of
memphis and nashville.
Today we're going to talk inthe month.
The month of may, as far as itcomes to trading, is over and we
have the one and only Mr DonWick from the Red River Farm

(00:28):
Network.
Don, welcome to the show.
I feel like it's been a fewweeks since we've done one of
these, but Don was in DC and Igot a feeling we're going to
talk a lot of politics.
We may say the name PresidentTrump once or twice.
How are you, my friend?

Speaker 2 (00:51):
I once or twice.
How are you, my friend?
I'm doing fantastic, abeautiful day, although here in
beautiful Grand Forks, northDakota, we've got hazy skies.
The fires in Canada areclouding up all the skies in the
Dakotas and northern Minnesotaright now.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
Not only do I not like Canadian politics, I don't
like Canadian fires.
A few years ago in Valparaiso,Indiana, I was literally having
a hard time getting up in themorning and going walking.
A few times I got sick.
You look at your phone and yousee that air quality.
And silly me.
I was walking in horrible airquality and didn't realize what

(01:18):
that was like and that's aproblem.
Yeah, it's going to be all over.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
Yeah, so far.
It just started reallyyesterday in our region and it's
been pretty much aloft, so itreally hasn't impacted our air
quality.
But what should be a beautifulblue sky is just one big haze
right now.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Well, we've got blue skies.
Down here in Nashville, we havethe rodeo in town tonight, we
have rodeo at Bridgestone Arenaand then jelly roll.
Speaking of jelly roll, that'snothing that you or I need to be
jelly rolls, but we got a lotof market action.
You were in DC, don in DC.
Want to talk politics first,and then we'll wrap up how the
markets closed for May.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah, we certainly can.
Certainly no shortage of newshappening on the front of DC the
Trump tariffs, or, uh, what'sbeen happening with that big
beautiful bill, uh, the budgetreconciliation process.
So, uh, where do you want to go, tommy?

Speaker 1 (02:12):
Well, I want my brother to go full screen on you
.
Apparently he forgot how to dothis.
We will start with the bigbeautiful bill for $100.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
All right, the big, beautiful bill, the budget
reconciliation process, made itthrough the US House by one vote
.
So it was a very tough poll.
They had to do a lot of work toreally bring the conservative

(02:46):
Freedom Caucus members, some ofthe budget hawks, over to get
that job done, because it doesactually add to the budget
deficit and that was a no-no forthe more conservative members
of the Republican caucus.
So Trump had to meet with thema couple of times and came up on
Capitol Hill and met with theRepublican caucus, but they got
the job done.
It passed by one vote justahead of their Memorial Day
break and now it's going to moveover to the Senate and the
Senate probably will take tillAugust or even early September I

(03:09):
guess August because it'll beon break in September.
But I wouldn't expect any quickaction on the budget
reconciliation process in theSenate.
They're a much more deliberatechamber and they're going to
take some time.
In fact they're talking ofbreaking it up into a couple
different pieces instead ofdoing it as the one big bill
that they have.
Tommy for agriculture, it's gotthe money areas that we talk

(03:33):
about, so it bumps referenceprices.
It makes some changes in thecrop insurance program.
It does some things like withdairy margin coverage and some
of those type of efforts.
It also doubles the amount offunding available for trade
promotion the market promotionprograms that USDA has.
So those areas for agriculturecame through.

(03:56):
The more policy elements of theFarm Bill things that you want
to get done.
Say that Proposition 12 thingin California.
They want to make a correctionof that through the farm bill
process.
That didn't happen in budgetreconciliation.
So still a lot of work.
The big hit that came out ofthis was about a $300 whack out

(04:19):
of the stamp benefits theDemocrats, of course, opposed to
that.
The SNAP benefits the Democrats, of course, opposed to that.
But that was the one thing thatthe Republicans were focused on
to help pay for the budget cuts.
Keep in mind, the biggest thingout of this is a
reauthorization of those 2017tax cuts, and so that's one big

(04:39):
reason that a lot of work, a lotof focus, has been on this
legislation.
Tommy.

Speaker 1 (04:45):
Don educate the good folks here at AgBull Media.
Agbull Trading.
How long has it been sincewe've had a new farm bill?

Speaker 2 (04:52):
2018, since we had a farm bill and really, actually,
if you think about it, 2018 waspretty much a rubber stamp of
what we did in 2013.
So we really haven't changedthe farm bill extensively since
dating back to 2013.
We should have passed a farmbill a couple of years ago.
We've had two extensions.
They tried to get somethingdone the last days in December

(05:14):
but they couldn't push it acrossthe finish line, so now they've
broken it up into two pieces.
It's pretty unusual becausewe've always had that farm bill
coalition where the folks thatcare about the nutrition title
what happens on that part of thefarm bill and then the
traditional ag interests thatcare about price supports and

(05:39):
crop insurance, those kinds ofthings.
They have worked together topass that legislation.
This kind of breaks that upbecause we're handling the ag
dollar issues, the mandatoryspending issues for agriculture
in budget reconciliation andtook a big cut out of the food
stamp program and they're reallykind of changing the way the

(06:01):
food stamp program is being doneto put more focus on the states
.
They're going to have to spendmore money coming out of the
state coffers for the food stampprogram, so that's another
change that came through in thislegislation.
Again, nothing done.
At this point it still has togo through the Senate and it

(06:21):
still could be many, many monthsbefore that's done.

Speaker 1 (06:24):
Sounds good.
I was writing my notes whileyou're talking, Don.
We're looking at $4.40, $4.50December corn futures.
We're looking at $4 cash corn,maybe even cash corn with the
three in parts of the country.
What are you hearing on moneyfor farmers?
I know they let the price sink,then issue the money later.
It would help us do a betterjob marketing if we knew money
was on the way.

Speaker 2 (06:45):
new money was on the way.
Well, I would say actually thisweek for our livestock
producers.
You may recall, the livestockproducers here in the Dakotas
have dealt with wildfires.
A year or two ago the USDA cameout with a $1 billion infusion
farm assistance for thoseranchers, those livestock

(07:05):
producers, and if they went andfiled all the paperwork that
they did at that time, theydon't have to come and do
anything again.
It's just the Farm ServiceAgency is going to take care of
it.
They should be getting a checkcoming their way.
In fact they're in that processright now.
It got authorized, I believeyesterday, and they should be in

(07:26):
the process of sending outthose funds here this week or
early next week, the way itsounded to me from the paperwork
we got from USDA.
There still is, I think, someother disaster programs that are
out there that we're waitingfor those dollars to come
through.

(07:47):
But that's all to come, I guess, tommy.

Speaker 1 (07:51):
Well, as they say in the movie Jerry Maguire, show me
the money, right.
I would love to hear thatanyone who grows bushel corn is
getting 50 cents.
We could actually make somecash sales Anything else out at
DC or anything else political.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Just with the tariffs , we had a court yesterday I
should say Wednesday morning, Ishould say Wednesday evening
that said the Trump tariffs, thereciprocal tariffs that were
put in place in April, and thenthey did that 90-day pause was
illegal.
They had to pull that back.

(08:25):
There was another court thatweighed in on that actually then
yesterday, of course, the WhiteHouse appealed that right away
and that appeal took.
So the tariff situation doescontinue, but this is a very
fluid situation on what happenswith the tariffs and some of the

(08:46):
trade deals that are beingworked on right now by the Trump
administration, Don, I can onlysmile and think of an Italian
movie Ligano.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
No Ligano, illegal, not illegal.
We're talking about the UnitedStates government kind of for
lack of a better word, shit showright, but I know in the radio
broadcast you don't speak such afoul language, but here on the
trading floor every once in awhile we've got to call it like
it is.

Speaker 2 (09:12):
Italiano.
The Ag Secretary is actuallygoing to be in Italy on Monday
and Tuesday trying to talk tradewith the Europeans and see if
they can come together on that,so that'll be interesting too.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yeah, good stuff.
Let's move to markets.
The month of May is over from atrading perspective and I do
have the closing wrap down forthe month of May.
July corn down 31.
July wheat up three.
July soy down three.
Big loser of the month of Maywill be corn.
We grow over 15 billion bushelsof corn.
You take away 30 cents fromthat.

(09:43):
That's going to hurt.
Now, of course that's in theJuly.
December would have a differentnet change.
Looking at cattle a lot ofoptimism.
Take what Don said about moneyto some ranchers up north.
But live cattle up $7 on themonth.
Hogs up three.
Feeder cattle up four.
Feels like they're up more.
But they have been trending upfor a long time With that.
We've had some down days, limitdown days.

(10:05):
Of course we had all the dramathis week from the fake news,
right?
Not that don wick of the redriver farm network would uh,
ever uh, do that.
Let me ask you something, andI'm being serious how many times
in your career have you put outa story where you had to
totally retract it and go?
That's?
I'm sorry, I messed that up afew times.
I mean, that's a big one, isn'tit?

(10:26):
Say there's a worm.

Speaker 2 (10:27):
Take feeder cattle limit down you know we would be
on the air saying that there arereports of that happening.
We went.
It wouldn't be confirmed bywhat we would be saying at that
point.
I don't think.
Um, yeah, there's, ourintegrity is pretty important to
us, so I can't think of toomany.
I see you're choosing everyword like it has a $100 bill

(10:50):
attached to it.
Exactly.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
I'm just from my perspective and the good folks
here we have a lot of cattletraders and cattle people
involved in Nesvik tradingreally active in cattle futures
and options.

Speaker 2 (11:03):
Investor asking the commodity futures trading
commission to investigate thatrumor of what happened on.
What was it?
Wednesday?
Because of the market impactand the dramatic impact it had
on prices.
So we'll see if that has anytraction.
Who were those officials?
Who's that Major cattleorganization in the cattle

(11:25):
business?
There seems to be a number ofthem.
We have National Cattlemen'sBeef Association, RCAF USA, US
Cattlemen's Association.
You all have a little differentangle on this thing so many
acronyms FBI, cia, irs.

Speaker 1 (11:39):
It's got the cow guy says we're going into the
three-letter acronym word.
Okay with that.
That's the market's overalltone.
One of the interests here isthat you bring the Northern
Plains perspective.
Canada, north Dakota, minnesota, south Dakota, maybe even a
little bit of Montana Very muchpeople understand.

(12:00):
If you live in Illinois youprobably have a great idea how
Illinois crops are going.
We consider you not only theexpert on a national level in
politics but definitely thevoice of the Red River.
How is the attitude of farmersup in the Red River Don?

Speaker 2 (12:15):
It's just been a bit of a strange spring, early
summer season, when you thinkabout it.
We had 90 degree temperaturesone week and wind it was just
crazy wind, so that if youwanted to get some spraying done
you couldn't, just because ofmother nature.
And we went the following weekright down to close to freezing
temperatures very cold, uh, andnow we're warming back up again.

(12:38):
These guys are are back intothe field, uh, basically crops
are in, other than a fewstragglers with soybeans and
moving on into the canola anddry edible beans and those kind
of things, but most of the cropsare in.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
Very good With that.
Sugar beet farmers, I knowalways looking to be optimistic.
We need tons in sugar, we needbushels, we need wheat.
But we went up 10-12 yesterday,we went up 10 today, but we

(13:22):
need a lot of days of that.
Don just to get spring wheatabove $6.
And, believe it or not, therewill be a harvest here in a few
months, correct?
Yeah, it will.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
It's also going to be interesting just to see how
this crop, but because we werenot able to get a pre down for
most of our farmers in thisregion because of that weather,
whether it was the wind or whatwas going on then with the cold
and the rain.
So trying to attack some ofthese weeds and maybe a few
extra disease issues because ofthe cold and wet conditions

(13:55):
could be an interesting start tothis season.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
Brag yourself up, Don .
I know you put out a wonderfulnewsletter on Mondays.
Joe popped that up.
How do people get ahold of MrDon Wick?

Speaker 2 (14:05):
You can sign up for our newsletter, farmnet News.
It goes out every Monday.
It is a snapshot of what goeson in the world of agriculture.
Just go to our website, rrfncom.
As in Red River Farm Network.

Speaker 1 (14:19):
Excellent.
All right, this has been theend of month wrap up, but you
and I we're going to start doingthese every week, probably
record, most likely on Thursdayor Friday, if we're in a pinch.
Maybe go Saturday mightalternate.
Some of your other wonderfulpeople who work there at the Red
River Farm Network Got anexcellent team there covering
politics, everything happeningin the valley.

(14:41):
Optimistic points for the monthof May would be cattle Things.
I'm sad about the price of corn.
There's some things you cancontrol, some things you can't.
If you're looking for a weatherstory and we get hot and dry,
that means there's going to beless bushels.
So if the market shoots upbased on a weather problem, it
means that someone out there hasless bushels.
Of course we always wantsomeone in South America to have
less bushels so the Americanfarmer can benefit.

(15:03):
But last but not least, mr DonWick, anything on land prices or
the price of shares of sugarstock in North Dakota.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
You know, kind of at the end of that season, you know
, once guys get rolling thetractor, certainly the shares
that wrapped up in early April.
But as far as farmland,traditionally we don't see a lot
happening at this point in theseason because they're busy in
the ground.
But those land values have beenpretty sticky.

(15:35):
They've held firm.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
We haven't really seen any pushback along with the
drop in commodity prices well,we're also seeing as these uh
suburbs of fargo and grand forksgrow.
Where you live in, uh, southgrand forks used to be way out
there and now that's just.
They're just every year takinga few more sections, making big,
beautiful houses, and NorthDakota is a very desirable place

(15:59):
to live correct, beautiful.

Speaker 2 (16:02):
We love it here.

Speaker 1 (16:03):
Except for in the winter.
You lie, you lie.
It is.
What's beautiful is the peopleNow, the weather in the winter.
That's why we go to UND hockeygames or something else, but we
stay busy nonetheless.
All right, let's do this againnext week.
Mr Don Wick, redbird FarmNetwork.
Tom Grisafi, I am an associateperson in Nesvik Trading and we
do business as Ag Bull Tradingand this will be broadcast on

(16:26):
the Ag Bull media platforms.
Down below we put all oursocials.
We'd love if you click, likeand subscribe.
We got YouTube, we got X, wegot Facebook.
Occasionally we'll be goinglive and we'll be doing more
educational series like this.
Everyone, have a great weekend.
Next time you see us it'll bethe month of June.
Have a good day, have a goodnight you.
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