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October 13, 2025 14 mins

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Gold and silver rip to record highs while crude softens and soybeans slide, and we sort signal from noise across rates, tariffs, and safe-haven flows. Field reports from North Dakota reveal frost, disease, and wind shaping yields as cattle stays firm and DC stalls.

• safe-haven metals surging amid uncertainty
• rate expectations, Fed chatter, and 10-year hover
• crude softening as the real-economy signal
• tariff threats, rare earth tensions, and posturing
• soybean futures pressure vs improving North Dakota basis
• field updates on frost, foliar disease, and high winds
• government shutdown impact on payments and outlook
• cattle strength and screwworm control debate
• risk management with call re-ownership and timing

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Thank you, Tommy G


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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:13):
Happy Monday everyone.
Tom Grassofi, AgBO Media, AgbolTrading, Agble Podcast, Agbol
everything.
Search Ag Bull.
You'll find us on all socialmedias and all places you can
get content like YouTube,Spotify, Apple, all that jazz.
Well, we're gonna call thisMonday Madness.
We're gonna bring in the one andonly Don Wick.

(00:33):
And I'm gonna ask him, because Iknow he knows, why silver up
three dollars?
All-time high in silver.
Why's gold up a hundred andfifteen dollars?
When I was a kid, gold was onlytwo hundred and fifty dollars.
Now, he may not have the answersfor that, but he'll know a bunch
of other things.
Mr.
Don Wick, Red River FarmNetwork, a friend of the show.

(00:54):
And the man with all theanswers, easy questions only.
Stage is yours.

SPEAKER_02 (00:58):
Yeah, I don't know if I have the answer for that,
but we've always said that thoseprecious metals are kind of that
safe haven when we've got timesof uncertainty, and there's no
doubt we've got a lot of chaosgoing on in the marketplace.
I'm curious what does it meanfor interest rates?

SPEAKER_00 (01:11):
It seems like they're kind of locked in, but
we've got another reporter andyou're flipping it back to me.
Yeah, you just flip it back tome.

SPEAKER_01 (01:19):
You go and back to you, Mr.
Wick.
Great question because I had aclient actually say, he said,
you know, with gold up 115 andsilver up three bucks, that is
not that does not mean interestrates are calming down.
Now, the stock market's having ahuge bounce today.
The interest rates 10-year yieldright now is around 405, 410.

(01:42):
Fed just came out.
There was some Fed chatter onthe tapes.
They said uh two more rate cuts,quarter point, quarter point.
But that that gets that interestrate thing going.
Gold going up's important, butcrude going down to these lower
to the upper 50 levels.
I don't know if you put any gasin your uh red Jeep that you
drive up there, but uh, I putsome 250, 240 gas in, and I

(02:03):
think fuel and energy would wayeclipse who really needs gold on
a day-to-day basis, right?
It's something we talk about,it's fun to talk about who needs
silver, but energy we use allthe time.
So keep an eye on that.
We'll a great gauge of that,folks, if you want to go out
there and just search CRB, theuh overall commodity index, and
see how that's doing.
But yes, Mr.

(02:23):
Wick, there's no way you couldsay, Oh, we're not gonna have
interest rates or inflations oranything because gold goes up
$115, silver goes up threedollars.
They both hit record highs.
We gotta talk about inflation,correct?

SPEAKER_02 (02:36):
Yeah, no doubt.
Is there a spillover that uhwell it's obviously not
happening in the grain trade,but is there any impact, uh, any
influence when we get into theregular commodities?

SPEAKER_01 (02:47):
Not not a lot.
So we let's go back to Friday.
You and I were gonna recordFriday.
We may start recording more onMondays.
Every Friday I cancel on youbecause I'm like, oh, you're not
gonna believe what Trumptweeted.
I can't get in front of mycamera.
That we had this big effect ofthe the Trump X tweet through
social in the stock market soldoff, Bitcoin crypto sold off big

(03:09):
time, had one of its biggestmoves.
And folks, what you need toremember is it's not Bitcoin
10,000 right now, it's Bitcoin125,000 that went down to
110,000.
So the the amount of moneyinvolved is so much greater.
We've had some big moves in theequities.
NASDAQ, many people would say itwas way overbought.
We had a big Nasdaq sell-off,but we had the effect of Friday,

(03:31):
and we had that that you hearthis word a lot, Don.
Maybe you can give folks abetter idea.
What's it mean when someone saysposturing?
Posturing.
Is that what we saw over theweekend with Trump Vance coming
in saying, you know what, China,we we're we're still buddies
with them?
Is that posturing?
What's it mean?
All the every every quote I see,oh, we're posturing.

SPEAKER_02 (03:50):
I think the White House saw what happened on on
Wall Street, and they had tocorrespond uh in some kind of
fashion.
They had to back off from thesome of the threats they had on
Friday, don't you think?

SPEAKER_01 (04:00):
Absolutely.
That it was a little much, itreally, really moved markets.
It uh very much affectedsoybeans.
And I guess if I was uh to writeanything, I'm Tommy's list of
what I'm disappointed in todayis that soybeans sold off 16-18
cents.
Granted, it was a harvestweekend, we're having harvest
pressure, but that really justif you wanted to say it's safe

(04:21):
to say we have no deals comingthrough with China anytime soon,
yeah, in OND, October, November,December.
Now, on a positive note, I don'tknow if you looked at cash
markets by you in North Dakota,but that basis improved
tremendously in North Dakotalast week.
And I think there's a reasonwhy.
What are you hearing on yields?
I hear that frost kicked NorthDakota soybean yields butts on.

SPEAKER_02 (04:42):
We're also hearing things like white and wool
having its impact.
We're getting out in the combineand seeing some disease issues.
We've had that stretch of wetweather that created some
anxiety with some of the foliardiseases, both in corn and
soybeans.
Uh, so those are some of thechallenges that we've uh had as
of late.
Still a good crop.
We had some tremendously strongwinds.

(05:03):
I hope some of that corn's stillstanding today because this
weekend it was 50 mile an hourwinds across North Dakota, and
that's hard to hard to hold thatcorn crop up in that kind of
situation.

SPEAKER_01 (05:13):
Yeah, absolutely.
What uh how much rain did y'allreceive up there?
Did they did it delay sugar beetharvest?

SPEAKER_02 (05:20):
I frankly didn't uh touch base with uh American
Crystal this morning, but thearea had basically half an inch
to maybe an inch in some areas.
I don't think it was enough toslow them down too much for
sugar beets.

SPEAKER_01 (05:32):
Yeah, those boys know how to get after it.
So, folks I talked to, Don, uh,yields uh a little disappointing
in beans, no no fault ofgenetics or anything else.
Things were actually off to agood start.
Just that that little adverseweather on that frost probably
really took off some topside.
There was a lot of potential upthere.
I hear the corn's doing a lotbetter than the beans.

(05:52):
We're I got some calls out tosome people.
When I put a text out or analert out, hey folks, buy back
some beans.
I had no problem on Friday whenbeans were down asking people to
buy back some beans becausewe're fighting with China today,
but we may not be fighting withthem in a month or two, and we
may have a uh if we have aproduction problem in South
America, we could still have auh big bull market.

(06:14):
If silver can go up threedollars in one day, corneal and
soybeans may someday, it's nottoday, ride up high, you know,
ride rise up higher againsomeday.
I it's hopeful thinking, but no,obviously with the call option,
you you invest what you investin you you no margin calls
there.
Not that you have to buy one,but it wasn't a hard sale, is my
point.
I'm not trying to sell anyonehere on today's show, but when

(06:36):
beans are down 20 on a Trumptweet, you know, you have that
saying, the old taco, you know,Trump always caves in.
So and then over the weekend hedid, right?

SPEAKER_02 (06:47):
Yeah, he put out uh another post on Truth Social
basically saying that uh the USAdoes not want to hurt China, it
wants them to stay strong aswell.
So uh much softer tone than whatwe saw on the uh on the Friday
tweet that he had with 100%tariffs being added to the
tariffs they already have inplace.

(07:07):
The Chinese foreign ministryTommy came up this morning
releasing a statement basicallyin response, I think, back to
Friday, saying threats are notthe way to engage with with
China.
And they said if the U.S.
would go through with those 100%tariffs, those rather aggressive
tariffs, they would have torespond correspondingly.
So they're pushing back as muchas they can at this point.

SPEAKER_01 (07:30):
Interesting.
Let's talk about governmentshutdowns.
I know you have a good uh ideaon the pulse of uh DC.
I mean, obviously, what do youtalk about when they're not
there, right?

SPEAKER_02 (07:38):
Yeah, well, the house is shut down and they does
not look like Speaker Johnson'sready to to call them back into
session.
The Senate seems like they'vebeen having votes, but it's just
the same bill over and overagain with the same results.
It's not enough to get those 60votes that that are needed.
The Democrats are holding firm,they're focused in on those

(08:00):
insurance premiums, they'regonna take a pretty big bump as
of November 1.
The Republicans are are sayingthey may address that maybe in a
separate bill, but I'm not surethere's a lot of trust right now
in uh on Capitol Hill for whateither side is saying.
So I don't see any quickresolution of this thing.
Uh it's already gone.
We're into what our past orsecond week.

SPEAKER_01 (08:22):
Yeah, week two, and they say it could be the uh
longest one in uh history.

SPEAKER_02 (08:26):
And the way we tell that, Don, is you look at the
betting markets, and there'slike a high chance this will go
as long as it's the last one,the longest one was 35 34, 34 or
35 days back in 2018 and Trumpwon.

SPEAKER_01 (08:40):
Okay, we got a ways to go yet.
Yeah, that's not good becausepeople aren't getting paid.
Speaking of getting paid, righthere, status USDA payments until
doors reopen.
Now, this young lady, I do likeher, and I'm gonna kind of talk,
I don't want to say bad abouther, but she seems to have this
card where she she reads off ofwhere she says, What's her line
she says, Don?
The golden age of agriculture isuh is just around the corner.

SPEAKER_02 (09:03):
That's been said by three, four times.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 (09:07):
Well, what the hell?
I don't see no golden age ofagriculture happening.
Do you, Mr.

SPEAKER_02 (09:11):
Wick?
She said that at the cabinetmeeting.
To preface it, she did say rightat the start that the farm
economy is tough, talked abouthigh input costs, put a lot of
blame on the the trade deficitthat came through the Biden
administration, and and there'sa lot of truth to that.
But then again, follows up withuh good times are are are still
a coming.

SPEAKER_01 (09:32):
Well, if we can't get this guy, he he said,
remember that uh interestingthing, someone took a picture
over his shoulder, and mutualfriend of ours on the internet.
Uh, he was actually looking at atweet of someone uh we're
buddies with on the internet.
Pretty wild.
Be careful what you tweet ortweet and tag these people
because they're actually payingattention.
Yeah, who knows?

(09:52):
Maybe they're actually watchingthis video, but we'd love to
have them on the show.
But they're pretty busy.
But it's hard for them to writea check with all that that's
going on.
Speaking of writing checks, uh,we're gonna write a lot of
checks to try to control thislittle son of a biscuit right
there.
What do you know about screwworm in the cattle market just
keeps marching on, Don?
It it is.

SPEAKER_02 (10:10):
We're seeing stronger prices again today, and
uh that's after some somecontract highs late last week
again.
We're still seeing that uh screwworm moving north.
I think they had some more casesshowing up some 70 miles south
of uh of the US Mexican border,so it remains a bit pretty big
concern.

(10:30):
Sid Miller, the Texas AgCommissioner, he makes the news
quite often.
He talked about some kind ofinsecticide that he wants to be
able to utilize on screw worm.
The concern they're pushing backbecause it would also impact
some of the other morebeneficial insects as well.
So that's been kind of theregulatory hassle they've had on

(10:53):
that uh solution.
So but yeah, that Sid Miller'snot shy telling what he thinks
on this issue.

SPEAKER_01 (10:59):
Yeah, well, they got a lot at state there.
The uh, you know, everyone's gotuh a lot.
And I think at this point peopleare are a little scared to say,
like, hey, we're gonna do this.
No, we're not gonna do this.
I think the what uh easyresponse or out is I know if I
was a politician, I'd say we'reaware of it, we're working on
it.
That's it.
I mean, you start talking toomuch above that, and you're just

(11:21):
gonna end up having to write apress release to correct what
you said five minutes before,right, Don?

SPEAKER_02 (11:27):
Well, if they take their lesson from the big boss
in in the Capitol, they're notafraid of snorting things.

SPEAKER_01 (11:33):
You're snorting on live TV.
You mean this guy, the big boss?
The big boss, yeah.
All right, is that his pick whenhe got arrested, or is that the
the the I think that's theofficial photo now?
Yeah, yeah, that is it.
That's awesome.
I love it.
All right.
Well, this guy isn't gettingalong well with this guy.
What do you know?

SPEAKER_02 (11:54):
Oh, uh just like you said, Friday they talked about
uh the 100% tariffs because ofChina basically uh ramping up
the regulation they have on therare earth minerals that we used
in just about everything in thein the tech world, from your
smartphone vehicle that youdrive and what have you.

(12:16):
So that really got thepresident's attention.
He talked about the increase intariffs and also said there's no
reason to be meeting withPresident G at the end of the
month.
Those two are supposed to gettogether in South Korea at that
Asia Pacific uh conference, butTrump at that point said that uh
wouldn't happen.
But like you said, who knows?
In two weeks, that could changethree different times again.

SPEAKER_01 (12:38):
Yeah, I'd like to see the grain market uh respond
a little better.
I'm not not happy with howgreens are doing today.
All right, Don Wick, if peoplewant to get a hold of you at the
Red River Farm Network.

SPEAKER_02 (12:47):
Oh, shoot us a note.
Uh my email is Don at RRFN.comand our website as well,
rrfn.com.
We have a month or a weeklye-newsletter called FarmNet
News.
We'd sure love to have yousubscribe.

SPEAKER_01 (13:00):
Absolutely.
Speaking of subscribing, I'm TomGrassofi, Ag Bowl Media, AgBull
Trading.
If you enjoy content like this,we now have premium content on
the AgBull website,$25 a month,$250 annually.
We're texting you on breakingnews.
You can call the trading desk,talk to us.
Of course, we got morningreports, afternoon reports, and
premium video content like thisand much more.

(13:21):
Of course, you see the Mr.
Wick there on that show also.
What should we leave people withto be optimistic in agriculture
here?
As we have Monday madness withgold and silver at all-time
highs, Mr.

SPEAKER_02 (13:34):
Wick.
Uh it's harvest time.
I think no matter what's goingon, attitudes stay pretty uh
pretty good when we're bringingin a nice crop.
And uh for the most part, we areTommy.
Sounds good.

SPEAKER_01 (13:44):
Don Wick, Red River Farm Network, time of your Safia
Bo Media.
We'll see you all next week.
Thanks.
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