Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
everyone, tom grisafi
, here at egg bowl media.
We have a new episode for youtoday.
It is monday 6 9 2025 and welike to bring you unique stuff.
And this is a unique, uniqueguy, jim Rothmick from the Land
Talker, and I got to tell youright off the bat if you get a
chance, check out his newYouTube page.
We'll pop that up and we'll popit up again at the end.
(00:33):
But Jim's got a new YouTubepage and there was several
videos on there.
He's doing a great job.
But, jim, if you don't know, heis the Iowa Appraisal Land
Talker Monthly.
We're going to talk about themonth of May.
He said it was a little slow,but he was at the Hog Expo last
week, so we're going to talkabout that.
Let's bring him in.
Jim, welcome to the show.
Good to see you.
I feel like it's been a fewmonths since we did this, but
I'm sure we'll still rememberwhat we're doing, right?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Absolutely, tommy.
Thank you for having me todaydays, since we've had this
opportunity to do this.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah, but we checked
our mics, we got our cameras on.
You look good, I feel good.
I'd be happier if corn was upbut it was down.
We've got to keep movingforward.
The price of land, not a lot ofauctions, stages, years, go
full screen on Mr Jim Joe.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Yeah, well, I tell
you what the inventory is down
right now.
And there's an off season thenand and land market it's we're
in it and that's because ofplanting season and so it's just
a very low time for landauctions and so it's not a lot's
moving right now.
But I will say what I have seenget sold, it's been very, you
(01:43):
know, stable.
I haven't really seen, you know, any drop offs or anything.
And which is surprising to mebecause you know there's plenty
of bad news out there in the agnews media right now with
markets and trade talk andtariffs.
But it's just kind of hangingin there and I think part of the
(02:04):
low inventory is helpingsupport prices too.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Yeah, let's go
through the newsletter.
I'll jump in here.
We'll pop that up.
This is May's newsletter.
You said it wasn't too excitingand you explained why, but
let's talk about the droughtreal quick.
What's going on in the inparticular?
We're going to talk a lot aboutthe state of Iowa, correct?
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Yep, yep, yep, yep,
yep, and, and you know, as you
can see on the um, on thenewsletter, you know we're
getting the drought cleaned uphere in iowa, um, and you know,
three months ago it uh, infebruary 2025.
You can see there's a lot ofyellow on that map, but we're
getting it cleaned up.
We had rain over the weekend.
Um, I tell you, tommy, I drovethrough northwest iowa over the
weekend and I'm telling you whatthose corn stands look good,
(02:50):
that really look good.
I never seen a bad feel of cornor beans.
Um, so it it seems like to mewhat I've seen that 2025 is
getting off to a good start andI can concur for indiana.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
I drove up from
nashville as you know, I'm
working a lot in nashville uhwith nesvicvik Trading Group and
I drove from Nashville all theway up and I was amazed at how
good things look.
A little bit of they've had alittle bit too much rain in some
spots.
I hear some of the bulls aretrying to say that oh the, you
know it flooded the replant.
(03:26):
We'll see.
You know know, things like thatdon't come out till uh, later,
much later, if, if 98 of itsplant in decent shape, we're not
going to explode higher becausethe two percent, right, all
right, here we go, you got, yougot.
May, are these all the maizefrom the prior years?
Speaker 2 (03:40):
yeah, it is all right
, so, um, so we're down 2025,
the month of May, compared tothe past four years, and that's
like I was saying, if there's anoff time for land auctions,
it's in the spring, so we're inthat time.
Low inventory, low inventory.
(04:03):
But the realtors I'm talking tosaid the phones have been
ringing.
They're expecting to have agood volume this fall, so
hopefully that comes to fruition, but it's just really ultra-low
inventory on the market rightnow.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Well, I got a couple
ideas about that, jim.
A few months ago we had thatdebacle with the trade tariffs
and the markets.
Volatile Stock markets sincethen have had a heck of a
comeback.
But probably if someone hadintended to sell land and they
watched that Dow Jones andoutside markets break as much as
they did, they probably backedoff and said maybe now is not a
good time correct, that's right.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
That's right,
Absolutely You're right.
And I had somebody I get a lotof phone calls from people doing
Google searches.
Somebody called me up and theyhad a lot of money in the stock
market.
They were just sick because ithad went down so much.
They said well, I'm sure theland market's diving too.
(05:01):
I'm like, no, it's not.
As a matter of fact, it'sstable.
The reason why is because thosepeople that are heavy in the
stock market are looking for astable investment and they're
starting to look at land Justbeing so solid right now, so
that volatility in the stockmarket is also helping to land
with land prices, because peoplewant something stable.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Yeah, absolutely, and
it's short-sighted to over my
whole career.
You can go broke being long thestock market on one of these
vicious sell-offs, but over timeit goes up.
Not always it could go down inuh in one thing, but uh, over
time it goes up.
It's funny we're doing this inmy little squawk box on my
(05:47):
trading desk is going off.
They said President Trump saidthis.
President Trump said that andhe's doing an interview right
now.
And if you're like someone likeme who has access to
Bloomberg's and Reuters and allthese things on X I pay for
several services to read thenews you would think the world's
ending.
You would think it's ending.
(06:07):
You would think the world'sending.
You would think it's ending.
But if you go to a nice smalltown, a community, go for a ride
.
America's doing great in myopinion.
Jim, what do you think?
Speaker 2 (06:15):
yeah, yeah, no,
that's, that's the way it is.
As you talk, as I call realtorsand confirm auction results, I
always ask you know what's themood of the crowd?
You know, and what I mean bythat is, what are they telling
you?
And you know, after theelection, our first year up to
now, they're pretty dangoptimistic.
And I had a banker call me umlast week and he was asking me
(06:42):
uh, he he said, uh, you know the, the, the chicago federal
reserve, said land prices are up, is that what you think?
And I'm like, well, I don'tknow if I'd say I'd go that far,
but I'd say they're pretty dangstable, that's for sure.
And he was, you know, sayingthat.
You know his, his clients arepretty dang optimistic right now
.
I was like I said I wassurprised to hear, to hear that,
(07:06):
but that's interesting.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Well, we'll take one.
We'll take one for the team forsure, we want things to go well
.
I had a young client.
This is just time for a story,but I had a young client get out
of the business and he ownedsome land and he's still worth a
lot of money.
He just didn't like the priceof grain and where the industry
he thought was going and he justwanted to change the pace.
(07:28):
And he's going to get out.
He's going to be worth a lot ofmoney, he's going to sell his
few hundred acres and he's goingto be just fine.
It's not like he had to get outof the industry because his
land lost half its value.
His land actually is stillincreasing in the part of Iowa
where he is.
So no problems there.
All right, let's talk about theLand Hero real quick.
(07:48):
That's another service you have.
Go ahead and talk about that.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Yeah, sure, sure.
Land Hero is a website that youcan pay a subscription to, and
you can access my sale database,and so people that would buy a
subscription to this would beother appraisers, farm realtors,
bankers anybody that needsaccess to high quality sale data
(08:16):
.
Right now, tommy, we have seena rapid increase in one chance
sealed bid auctions, and so whatthat means is, when you bid on
a farm, you've got to write downon a piece of paper what you're
willing to pay for it.
You got one shot at it, and soyou submit that bid, and they'll
(08:36):
tell you whether you got it ornot.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
So it sounds like an
Eminem song.
You got one shot.
You know you start reading thelyrics there.
Explain that again one moretime.
Is that so?
People don't play games it's,it's a.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
It's a very effective
tool when, when the market is
kind of wishy-washy, um and andit it really started up last
year because last year at thistime we had a lot of no, no
sales at auction and it startedup last year and it's really
gotten a big increase and thereit's still going on.
Um, but you know, they'll put asale, a farm up for auction,
(09:12):
and you submit your bid and yougive it your best shot.
That's a one chance deal bidand so you've got to know what
you're willing to pay that dayfor that farm.
And you've got one chance andyou might, may or may not get it
.
If you're the top bid you'llget it.
But, um, but you know, say like,uh, back when that when the
market was kind of declining, wewas getting a lot of no sales
(09:35):
and and for some reason,whenever farm, no sales,
everybody can remember what thatlast bid.
I mean, 20 years from now,somebody that was at that
auction can tell you what that,what the last bid was for that
farm.
So it's a stigma and to do thatsealed bid auction if it
doesn't work out as well as therealtor thought, then there's
not.
That stigma's not out there andthen they can you know list or
(09:59):
whatever that's.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
That's why they're
interesting.
Yeah, well, thank you forexplaining that.
All right, I have up on display.
We'll pull it up.
Uh, just some of the pricesthat went off and again, uh,
full disclosure.
May was a slow month in landprices.
Any of these catch your eye?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yeah, you know,
they're in Mitchell County.
That farm sold for $22,000 anacre.
That was a very high sale price.
That was a sealed bid auctiontoo, and I'll tell you, well,
maybe I shouldn't share that.
I won't share it, don't shareit.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
I don't feel like
editing this video.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
I better not but it's
a good story.
Yeah, yeah, the auctioneer.
There was a good story withthat.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
I better not better
not say that People trust you
and a deal's a deal, All right,and uh, with that, let's talk
about you had a chance to go tothe hog expo, and let's talk
about that.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Let's talk about you
had a chance to go to the Hog
Expo and let's talk about that.
Yeah, that was last week IowaPork Expo.
What's it actually called?
World Pork Expo, world Pork,all right, yeah.
So there's people there fromall over the world.
They're checking things out.
It was down at the Iowa StateFairgrounds and I tell you what,
tommy, people were pretty dangoptimistic there.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
And I tell you what,
Tommy?
Speaker 2 (11:14):
people were pretty
dang optimistic there.
You know I sat in on aneconomic meeting talking about
you know what they're expectingtheir hog producers are going to
be in the block this year andthey're expecting to make about
$10 a head, which is a lotbetter, In 2023, you know they
lost $35 a head.
Oh, that hurts, and last yearis just a little bit below break
(11:39):
even.
So this year they're going tobe in the black.
So people were justsurprisingly optimistic.
One thing they did say is youknow the feed costs have come
down and they expect hogproducers to be able to buy corn
in low fours or, you know, midfours, and they expect that in
the foreseeable future, unlessthere's new demand for corn.
(12:01):
So that that's a positive forpeople that's buying corn.
One thing they did say is thosenon feed costs are just a sticky
high and and they just will notcome down and uh, so there's
essentially no new buildinggoing on in the pork industry
because those costs new havejust gotten so high.
(12:21):
You start buying concrete andsteel and wood.
Gotta insure it too.
Insurance that's.
That's one thing I also talkedabout.
A real sticky one.
Just the insurance on, on, um,those hog facilities that have
doubled, wow and um, uh, so, uh,so yeah, it was just surprising
(12:42):
how optimistic everybody was.
They're coming out with some,you know, pork marketing.
The National Pork Producers istrying some new pork marketing
techniques and expect it to gowell, but they need to try to
get more exports.
You know just, you can't neverstop uh and trying to increase
(13:04):
demand.
So hopefully mr trump will getsome markets opened up and and
sell more pork um across theworld.
Um, I will say one thing, tommythey're they're opening up a
are going to build a new sausageplant here, not too far away
from des moines.
Jbs um bought some land thereto put up a new sausage plant
(13:24):
there.
I'm just not too far from herein Des Moines, so so they're
going to make sausage there andit's a lot.
I don't know how much, but it'squite a bit.
It's pretty stupid.
Yeah, yeah, right, right.
So so yeah, it was.
It was a really good meeting, alot of people in attendance, so
(13:45):
yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Oh good, Thanks for
sitting down with us, Jim.
How do people get a hold of you?
Speaker 2 (13:50):
Well, if you want to
sign up for my newsletter, it is
a free subscription.
It goes out via email once amonth.
It's got all the land auctionresults in Iowa and a little bit
of narrative I throw in there.
Go to wwwiowaappraisalcom.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
And your socials are
everywhere.
If people just Google the LandTalker, I think they'll find you
just fine, don't you think?
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Yep, yep, check out
the Land Talker.
I post new stuff on there.
I do two a month and the nextone coming up.
I interview two guys and wetalk about sale leasebacks.
So it'll be a very good show.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Very good, very good.
We'll keep up the good work andI know that when you post
videos to your social media youhave a really big following, so
I'll get this all bundled up andput out there.
But it's already June 9th.
Pretty much everything you saidI agree with, in the sense that
corn prices, as far as the hogproducer is going to be able to
(14:48):
buy uh corn at a good value,that means, although prices are
low, jim, they're low becausewe're on the verge of having a
really big crop if this keeps upcorrect yeah, I tell you what
it.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
If we get any kind of
rain in july, we're gonna have
a big crop.
We're gonna have a big crop.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
I should're going to
have a big crop, I should get on
the phone and start letting myclients know, but I will send
them this video and if they getmad I'll say hey, jim said we're
going to have a big crop inprices, but at least there's
still things we could do toprepare for it.
Right, absolutely, absolutelyAll right.
This is the May version of LandPrices, the Land Talker.
(15:23):
I'm Tommy Grisafi with AgBullMedia, agbull Trading.
My friend Jim.
He's got a new podcast.
You got to pop it up, joe.
Pop that up one more time sopeople can go click on YouTube
Land Talker TV on YouTube Untilnext time.
We'll see you next month andeveryone have a great day, okay.