Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
happy friday everyone
.
Tom grisafi, here with the eggbowl podcast.
We're doing egg bowl trading.
We're talking markets.
We're talking politics.
We got the only the one andonly mr don wick.
I am sitting in my studio inbeautiful Mayville, North Dakota
.
Here we got a little map ofthat.
Bing, bam, boom, Mayville,North Dakota.
Mr Don Wick is in Grand Forks.
Let's not waste any time.
(00:32):
Mr Wick, good looking, handsomeand smart, there he is.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Hey what did we learn
?
You're just down the road fromme today.
It's good to have you in North.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Dakota, thank you.
What we learned today was donot wear a black shirt if you
have black backdrop.
All you see is my head, butthat's what we're working with.
It's a tough crowd, too funny.
Speaking of tough crowds, Iheard that some private
forecasters, some well-respectedfirms, raised their corn yield
(00:59):
and there's some anger out onthe Twittersphere.
What are you hearing, my friend?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
It certainly got a
lot of people buzzing ahead of
those reports and of course thenumbers came out this morning
from USDA and right there inline with trade expectations.
So there wasn't a lot of marketreaction, obviously, but still
a lot of talk after the fact.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, big, big,
nothing burger on those numbers.
Friday I am in Mayville, northDakota.
We have a lot of smoke here.
I guess the Canadian wildfiresare back.
I want to thank our Canadianfriends, but it looked like it
was going to rain, but I thoughtit was a smoke.
Now it's pouring rain here.
The crops here look beautiful.
Send me your hate mail, drop mea comment, I don't care.
(01:41):
In Trail County, northDakotaota, outside of the debris
still in your field from thederecho when mayville, north
dakota actually made thatnational news, things look good
here, don.
How are they up your way?
Speaker 2 (01:53):
beautiful again.
I'm in the same neighborhood.
I was in iowa this week for uhcorteva had a media day event.
Uh, just got back early thismorning actually and uh,
beautiful crops.
As I went along the way Sawsome corn tasseling as I got
into South Dakota and on intoIowa.
But there was a lot of areasthat had standing water and I
(02:13):
drove through a lot of rainyesterday afternoon on my way
back from Iowa and up throughSioux City and Sioux Falls.
There were some pretty heavyshowers.
So those areas that hadstanding water in southeast
South Dakota, I'm guessingthey're seeing a little more
ponding here by this afternoon.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Yeah, and I noticed
that too.
I drove from Indiana, northernIndiana, northern Illinois,
wisconsin, minnesota, and if Idid see anything it was a little
bit of standing water.
Everything was luscious green,but that green came from
moisture and sometimes we had alittle too much yeah and you see
, some of those humid conditionsthat we have here in a month of
(02:49):
july.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
It feels a little
cool here in grand forks this
morning or this afternoon, butuh, some of those wet conditions
and humid conditions that'sprime for for disease issues in
some of these corn soybean wheatcrops.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
So that's something
our growers have to be alert to
as well yeah and uh, there's uh,that's why folks pay for good
uh, agronomy and uh, stay up onthe latest technology, correct,
exactly, we got some of the bestright here.
Yeah, uh, wild week in markets,not so much on the grain side
but on the cattle side.
Huge moves, um, I don't evenknow where to start.
(03:22):
I say the word tariff and wecan go for a half hour, but this
is usually a 10 to 12 minuteshow.
Speaking of 10 to 12 minuteshow, today is 7 11.
If you're near 7 11, freeslurpee day, don.
That's the best news I have ofthe day.
Very good, I did not know that.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
So now you know, yeah
, this cattle thing.
Of course all the news.
Monday was the first.
You know they have the phasedinin opening of the border, the
first port in Arizona.
I believe that they had openedI think the first day like some
900 had moved through thatmarketplace and by midweek that
(03:56):
border shut down again becausethey saw war cases in Mexico
that were, I believe, some 300miles south of the US border.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
So it was not open
very long.
Yeah, that was.
You know.
We know we can't just makescrewworm go away, so we're
going to open everything up andthen close it two, three days
later.
That wasn't a good look, was it?
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Not really.
There's some pretty stringentprotocols for any cattle that
come through, both on theMexican side and the US side.
So even with a phased-inrollout like they were planning,
it was going to take some timebefore we'd ever see some
significant numbers coming northof the border.
So it had to be prettyfrustrating for the
(04:38):
administration folks to havethis new case, but they were
proactive and shut the borderdown right away again.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Yeah, speaking of
frustrating, we got some
breaking news.
Now, the breaking news wasn'ttoday, but we got that
announcement of that borderclosing.
And then we had the old bringit onto the show 50% tariffs for
Brazil.
What do you know about that, mrWick?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Well, it's what's
making the headlines, I think,
is the former president fromBrazil in some legal trouble and
Trump wants to show somesupport for the former Brazilian
president.
So throwing out those 50percent tariffs as a way to do
(05:17):
that, these tariffs?
Certainly there's a lot of waysof getting it done.
Certainly there's a lot of waysof getting it done, but in this
particular case it's a littletit for tat because of one.
What's happening with thecurrent president versus the
former president?
It's a kind of unique situationin Brazil.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
Yeah, so much news,
so many things to talk about.
50% tariff on copper.
Copper had its largest move inhistory.
I lost a lot of money on that.
Personally, I'm not complaining.
I'm a big boy.
There's times I make good moneyon things.
I don't come out and say it,but I'll tell you.
On this one, Copper moved up13% in 10 minutes.
Moved up 13%.
(06:02):
I can't even figure out whatthat would be.
I have to take off my shoes andbe get a calculator.
But a $4 corn times 10 would be40 cents.
He had some more.
We'd be looking at a 50, 60cent moving corn and that's what
copper did in five minutes.
Wow.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
And, of course, we
were supposed to have the tariff
situation by what what?
Thursday.
I think everything was going totake place and they backed it
up again now that they'll beimplemented as of August 1.
So there's India, south Korea,taiwan.
There's a lot of countries thatare meeting with the United
(06:37):
States as we speak trying to getsomething wrapped up and get a
deal in place before we get thatAugust 1st deadline.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, upon recording
this, I had a pop-up come on, a
news thing, and it did sayIndiana, not Indiana, india
wanting to come and talk aboutbuying grains.
It seems like a logical thing.
Hey, we're a foreign country,we have people, let's go appease
America.
Let's go buy some grain Easyenough.
Ball, let's go appease america,let's go buy some grain easy
enough.
Um, they're probably not goingto run over here and buy cattle.
I'll tell you, we're using allthat we can.
(07:05):
I mean tariffs on more tariffs.
Last night in canada, I'mlosing track.
I feel like I'm playing a badvideo game and I'm not winning
here.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Don well, it's, uh,
quite a list and uh, there's
different numbers for everycountry.
So it is.
You really do need quite thescorecard to keep ahead of
what's going on here, and itseems like it changes every day
too.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Speaking of fast
moving and pace, let's talk
about the big, beautiful bill.
I hear there's some goodyummies in there for farmers.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
There's a lot of
things.
First of all, the tax benefits.
We continue the 2017 tax cutsthat were put in place.
A lot of those are going tostay.
They made some otherenhancements that go along with
the tax program and many of theprovisions you'd see in a farm
bill reference prices, theadjustments with ARC and PLC
they were included in theso-called big beautiful bill.
(07:53):
Now Congress is looking at someof the things that did not make
it, some things that didn'thave a dollar associated with it
.
So maybe he changes to thatProp 12 provision.
In California or Iowa, senatorGrassley wants to go after farm
payment limits.
Those kind of things would comeup in another piece of
(08:14):
legislation, maybe what we'dcall our traditional farm bill.
The DC folks are terming it askinny farm bill and they would
hope to have it done by the endof September when all the other
Farm Bill provisions expire, orelse they'd have to extend those
provisions another year, likethey've done the last couple of
years.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
So we talked about
grains.
Grains are trending down,cattle extreme volatility.
We had that bullish news of thescrewworm and more bullish news
on top of that of the tariffson Brazil.
We import a ton of cuts fromBrazil.
I did check out the hamburgerstocks yesterday because I heard
we import so much ground beeffrom Brazil in different ways.
And McDonald's was up, wendy'swas up.
(08:54):
They don't seem to be worriedabout it.
I don't know how they'redealing with that.
That is by far one of theirgreatest input costs.
I did see something on Twitter.
It's totally a little differentfrom what you and I normally
talk about.
It was a friend who sells cropinsurance and he said hey, just
because I sell insurance doesn'tmean I get a discount on my
insurance.
This is how much my insurancewent up on my house versus where
(09:16):
it was a year ago, versus whereit was a few years ago.
Nobody's getting a break on anyof these insurances and I
really feel between I guessmaybe this is just a statement,
not a question but betweenelevated, higher interest rates,
not only in the ag communitybut out in America, elevated
insurances, it's a pretty bigtax on all of us, don Well think
of all the disasters we've hadthat's impacted this insurance
(09:38):
industry, whether it's fires inCalifornia or floods in Texas,
or hurricanes going on in theEast Coast.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
All that adds up and
it's got to hit that insurance
industry as a whole and it alltrickles down to our bill at the
end of the month.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Yeah, it's tough Now.
Someone said we don't quitehave a new farm bill, but this
big beautiful bill did include alot of things for farmers.
I mean, are we ever going toget a new farm bill?
But this big beautiful bill didinclude a lot of things for
farmers.
I mean, are we ever going toget a new farm bill?
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Like I said, they're
working on the skinny farm bill.
It might be a tough road to hoeto get that done because
usually you have that dynamic ofthe nutrition programs getting
the support, say, from the moreDemocratic members of Congress.
That was done away with becauseof so many cuts that came
(10:26):
through in that one big,beautiful bill.
It may be hard to get theDemocrats at the table to work
on a more traditional farm bill,the issues that are remaining
yet in this farm bill that theyhave to do before the end of the
year, end of September.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Yeah, absolutely Okay
.
Before we wrap it up, I justwant to advise folks that we are
a lot closer to growing a bigcrop than ruining a crop.
We are now officially in themiddle of July.
August days are going to start.
You're going to start hearingabout silage being cut in
various parts of the country.
What are we going to do withall these bushels?
We have a storage problem inNorth Dakota.
Have you heard anything moreabout the storage?
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Just that the
governor put together a pretty
big program for some incentivesfor Helping farmers get through
the whole process.
Arthur Companies in NorthDakota also announced they've
got some rather major projectshopefully to help cushion that
storage situation for on-farmstorage this fall as well.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Yeah, arthur, a big
buyer of grain here in the
mid-southern Red River Valley, abig player.
They have the trains andeverything else, so a lot of
clients sell into them and it'sa partnership, don, trains and
everything else, so a lot ofclients sell into them and it's
a partnership, don.
You know, when all of a suddenone of your partners drops out,
it's a problem, but it lookslike they're really doing things
to help accommodate correct?
Yeah, no doubt about it.
Great people, very good, let'stalk about you.
(11:44):
Enough about me.
My friend, how do people getyour newsletter on Monday, your
Red River Farm Networknewsletter?
Speaker 2 (11:51):
We call it FarmNet
News.
It comes out every Monday.
It's a snapshot of what's goingon in the world of agriculture
all our farm news.
You go to our website, rrfncom,or you can drop me an email.
You can find that email addressonline as well on our website,
so I'd sure love to have yousubscribe.
It's a great publication.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Absolutely, I get it
in my inbox and I believe this
video will be in there if I getit boxed up and sent back to you
just in time.
But with that folks, if youneed to get ahold of me, of
course there's my number one.
Eight five, five, seven, threeseven.
Farm commodity broker I, uhAgble trading is a DBA of uh
Nesvik trading group doingbusiness as folks there, and you
(12:31):
know, don, earlier in the yeara lot of folks said they're not
going to sell grain below theircost reduction.
I guarantee you and we're neversupposed to guarantee because
we're futures and optionsbrokers I guarantee you people
are going to sell a lot of grainbelow the cost production.
Final thoughts on thatstatement, sir.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
I think the banker
might get involved in that as
well.
They're going to have to sellsomething to keep things rolling
here.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
I'm thinking, yes,
sounds like a plan.
Well, the good news is it'sraining in Mayville, North
Dakota.
I hope it's raining where youare.
Let's get some heat units.
Let's grow some big bushels.
With those big bushels maybewe'll create demand.
Maybe we'll have a demand bullmarket in the next few years.
Thank you, my friend.
Thank you, Tommy.
Take care Music.