October 24, 2025 • 41 mins
We walk through a volatile week where shutdown politics, CPI relief, and global trade headlines moved cattle limit down while grains firmed. From Argentina beef optics to a possible Trump–Xi meeting, we connect DC decisions to cash flow, price risk, and the week ahead.
• shutdown timing linked to ACA premium hikes and party leverage
• partial FSA reopening and roughly 3bn dollars in payments to producers
• CPI at 3 percent yoy, equities rally, odds of another Fed cut rise
• beef inflation stubborn, cattle limit-down driven by optics and fear
• Argentina imports small in scale versus US consumption
• screwworm controls, Mexico cattle border reopening scenarios
• trade cards: 301 probe on China, soy and sorghum deliverables
• Canada talks pause, Japan signals added US commodity buys
• Brazil tariffs, coffee prices, and hamburger flows
• API withdraws support for year-round E15 and seeks reforms
• Senate hearing on seed and fertilizer market power and history
• market highs, debt surge, and risks from congressional dysfunction
Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gristaffi with the EggBowPodcast, EggBow Media and Eggbow
Trading.
Well, to say it's been a week,that'd be an understatement.
Lucky for you, we have just theguy to break it all down.
Now, we've got to give him aformal introduction.
I think the only way to do thatis just to tell you a little bit
about Jim Weismeyer and give hima nice open.
(00:20):
Everyone, enjoy the show.
unknown (00:52):
Mr.
SPEAKER_00 (00:53):
Jim Weissmeyer.
Live from DC.
How are you doing, my friend?
SPEAKER_01 (00:57):
I'm good, except tired because we had Trump on
steroids plus two.
SPEAKER_00 (01:04):
Oh my God.
Absolutely, absolutely.
Let's get right in the show.
Where would you like to start?
How about with U.S.
government shutdown?
SPEAKER_01 (01:11):
Yes.
When and how?
I think we're approaching thetime.
November 1.
I think it could go until uhNovember 1 or a little later.
Why do I say that?
That's when the Obamacare or theAffordable Care Act major
increases will take place, andthe Democrats lose their
(01:32):
argument that they want themextended because the Republicans
are not giving in on that.
They want major reforms to thatprogram, and they don't want to
do it unless and until thegovernment comes back to work.
So after November 1, theincreases are already in place.
(01:53):
And the Democrats, I think, willhave their political issue that
I really think they wanted allalong.
They'll never say this publicly.
They want to blame Trump and theRepublicans for the dramatic
increase in the Affordable CareAct or Obamacare Act payments to
use that in the 2026 electionsbecause they want to win at
(02:14):
least one chamber of the Houseof Congress, probably the House,
so they can help neuterPresident Trump for the last two
years of his secondadministration.
That's at least my perspectiveon that one.
So it could it will be intoNovember.
I know it's going to take untilearly next week because the
(02:36):
House has already said they'renot coming back, and the Senate
isn't back until next week, too.
So government shutdowncontinues.
It's now the second longest, uh,and it's going to continue.
SPEAKER_00 (02:49):
FSA partially open, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (02:52):
Yeah, there's a few kinks, but early in the week
they should be not fully backed.
There's two people in each FSAoffice.
They were manning the phonestrying to get those two uh
individuals for each countyoffice, and they're getting
close to that.
And they had to make sure thatthe money, the funding was moved
(03:13):
into the accounts before theystarted hitting the send uh
button on some of the around$3billion in payments, but they're
coming.
And that's for the ARC PLCpayments for the uh 2024 crop,
that's for the ag disasterwands, marketing ag loans,
things like that.
So at least they're back, and atleast about$3 billion of cash
(03:34):
flow is getting out there.
SPEAKER_00 (03:36):
Unbelievable.
All right.
I want to see you.
Good to see you.
This is my world, my old daysfrom the border trade bond pits
and stuff.
CPI came out today, and uh, Ibelieve you have some color on
this, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (03:49):
Yes, on the CPI, it actually came in a little bit
below the market expectations.
Uh, look at that, 0.3 percent.
The overall inflation rateannually was at 3%.
But the the market impact ofthis was twofold.
One, it gave the equity marketthe bravado to make new highs, I
(04:10):
think across the board here.
And two, it it uh increases theodds that uh late this month,
next week, we're gonna haveanother 25 basis points cut in
the Fed funds rate.
So that was an important report.
It showed that uh food inflationwas a little lower than August.
This was a September report, butit clearly showed those beef
(04:33):
prices are high and they'reprobably going to uh uh uh stay
high.
Uh, they also said at the WhiteHouse that uh remember this was
the September CPI report.
They've already said to theWhite House they don't expect to
release the October reportbecause of the government
shutdown.
SPEAKER_00 (04:50):
I did see that.
Yeah, a lot of news coming out.
Now, to note, I think todaywe're supposed to have cattle on
feed.
I don't think that's coming out,just to note.
But uh yeah, a lot of a lot ofinteresting stuff.
Hey, let's just real quick whilewe're chatting here, I want to
tell people I'm super excitedabout this.
If they like your content, asfast as you're putting out
content, of course, they cansubscribe to it right there at
the bottom, folks, weismeyer atgmail.com, or they can go to the
(05:14):
Ag Bull website, www.agbull.com.
Just go to AgBull Intel.
Jim Weissmeyer has his owncolumn called Weissmeyer's
Perspectives, where we arepumping out.
Now, normally Jim would put outa story or two a day, but uh,
did you set a new recordyesterday?
Six, seven publications.
SPEAKER_01 (05:33):
It was too much, but let me see your fingers.
SPEAKER_00 (05:35):
Are there any it was one of these days?
SPEAKER_01 (05:37):
Yeah, I've got cramps.
Uh it was one of these days, butimportant, uh, important stuff
this week.
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (05:43):
Back to lightning round here.
Now, this Argentina beefimports.
Oh boy, are you sitting down?
SPEAKER_01 (05:49):
Yes, yes.
The uh Argentine beef imports,they quadrupled them from all
this is what uh Trump said.
Yeah, he seeks quadrupling beefuh purchases from Argentina, but
they're going from 20,000 tonsto 80,000 tons.
Well, yeah, I hate to say it,but it's peanuts.
SPEAKER_00 (06:09):
Yeah, well, I got a chart to represent that, and uh
this was from a friend on uhwell, explain why it's peanuts,
and I'll get the chart up.
SPEAKER_01 (06:16):
Well, we we consume 13 million metric tons of beef a
year.
13 million metric tons, and thisis 80,000 metric tons.
SPEAKER_00 (06:28):
Now explain to folks, and for our people
listening on Spotify and stuffwho can't see the chart.
Sorry to talk over you.
SPEAKER_01 (06:34):
That Argentina, if this is a pie chart and the
Argentina is in maroon and it'ssqueezy little at 2% of uh 2025
US beef imports by country.
Now it's gonna go up what threepercent, you know.
SPEAKER_00 (06:50):
That's yeah, I mean it's still it it it's really
nothing.
SPEAKER_01 (06:53):
No, but it's it's the optics.
You know, listeners will want toknow well, why did the market
what what feeder cattle wentdown over$23 a head?
SPEAKER_00 (07:02):
Are you suggesting I post a picture of feeder chart?
SPEAKER_01 (07:04):
Yeah, I would if we have it there.
We ooh boy, that's a ski slope.
You don't want to go down.
Yeah, that shows you rightthere.
It's it it was, and you youyou're a trader, Tommy, you know
that it's the optics of it andit's the fear angle.
Like, well, what else can happenhere?
SPEAKER_00 (07:21):
You know, yeah, and and something happened here, and
uh, we'll get to this chart in alittle bit.
That one I jumped the gun whenyou lock limit up or down.
Now, two weeks ago or threeweeks ago, where like feeder
cattle had one of its biggestmoves in history, it was up
twenty dollars.
It's okay, and I'm gonna maybepeople were gonna catch some
slack for this, and I'm okaywith it.
Why is it okay to go up twentydollars, but it's not okay to go
(07:44):
down twenty dollars because thetone, the rhetoric, they didn't
like his rhetoric.
It was a very I didn't like hisrhetoric.
SPEAKER_01 (07:50):
Did you emotional rhetoric, emotional rhetoric uh
rhetoric?
And he I know the cattle youknow producers in the US are
thinking, hey, America firsthere, Mr.
President.
But remember what I said lastweek in this term of the Trump
administration, America first isconsumers first, it's not
(08:12):
producers first.
That's what a lot of people aremisreading his second term.
And also, he doesn't understandthe cattle market, he's as what
we call all hat, you know what Imean?
And you can imagine theconstraints this has put on USDA
Secretary Brooke Rollins.
She can only go so far, and whenhe says he's going to increase
(08:36):
the uh imports, well, she cangive him some arguments, maybe
per or con, and I think she did,but he's the decider.
Now, there's geopoliticsinvolved here too, Tommy, okay,
because he this is this is aChina complex thing, because
he's trying to get uh Argentina,Brazil more in the US flank
(08:57):
versus uh China and the BRICScountries.
And so this is tied into farmore geopolitical things than I
think the ag industry uhrealizes.
So we're into heady, headyground here.
SPEAKER_00 (09:13):
But is it like a us against them?
SPEAKER_01 (09:14):
Let's it's almost, yeah.
We're we're de-risking ourselvesfrom China and vice versa.
China's doing the same thing.
SPEAKER_00 (09:23):
Oh, they're picking teams, yeah.
We're all right.
Oh, picking teams, yeah.
Russia fight, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (09:27):
Yeah, Russia, Iran, ex uh North Korea, etc.
SPEAKER_00 (09:31):
That's really scary, Jim, because they're playing
with people's livelihood, myfriend.
SPEAKER_01 (09:35):
They are, they are.
SPEAKER_00 (09:37):
Did I tell you this one, or is this no?
SPEAKER_01 (09:40):
This is one.
We've got the picture of theplant.
They announced again a 1313-page plan.
I mean, that included a lot ofthings.
Actually, there were there weresome things in there that the
cattle industry, uh, some in thecattle industry have wanted for
years.
Uh, it wasn't mandatory countryof origin labeling, but it was
(10:00):
voluntary.
There's uh souped up uh fundingand uh attention on helping uh
get some more smaller meatprocessing plants.
That's easier said than done, bythe way, in my judgment, and
some other aspects, but thattells you the focus.
When was the last time you sawout of any White House a 13-page
(10:22):
plan for the cattle industry?
Now, normally cattle producers,very independent, and I don't
blame them.
They don't want, they don't wanttoo much involvement here by the
government.
And the farm state lawmakers aresaying the same thing.
Senator Chuck Grassley said uhthis week that when it came to
Argentina and Trump and cattle,that the president should just
(10:43):
shut up, you know, and thatechoed what I think a lot of
livestock producers are arethinking privately.
Yeah, but Trump is looking atthe consumer, he's irritated
that beef prices are uh so highand they're staying high.
But look at the price of coffee,Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (11:03):
I saw coffee hit a record high yesterday.
Correct, Jim?
SPEAKER_01 (11:06):
Absolutely, and look at that versus a hamburger.
Yeah, it's expensive, but uhversus coffee, plus you get good
protein from beef.
So uh yet and I'm not seeingdemand going down.
And this is what I wish that ourpresident would understand.
(11:26):
Let the market work, you know.
When the when the governmentgets involved in market
handling, you know, you usuallyget unintended consequences, and
we're seeing them right now.
The market isn't perfect, as weboth know, no, but it's far
better than the weak hand of agovernment coming in and trying
(11:49):
to basically manipulate things,and then people lose trust of
the market.
SPEAKER_00 (11:54):
You can't go take a big position home over the
weekend, not knowing that youcan't get out on Monday.
That's the problem, Jim.
We don't mind having a loser,but can I get out of my loser?
That's the trader in me.
I want to go back a little bit.
Absolutely.
Yeah, Secretary Rollins tweetedthis, or her people tweeted
this, and there's some veryinteresting people here skimming
(12:15):
over this.
The first person here, DougBergum's involved in this.
Protect and improve business ofranching.
Doug Bergam, why is he involved?
SPEAKER_01 (12:23):
Well, that's on the grazing.
They're gonna they're gonnaincrease some grazing on federal
lands.
That's to get some more cattle,you know, you know, grazing.
So he had to get involved in thepermitting.
He's very good on the permittingprocess.
He's he he's a veryknowledgeable guy.
Thank goodness he's in the he'sin the cabinet.
So he'll direct if they want toincrease grazing on federal
(12:43):
lands, he's the guy to uhexecute uh you know uh that that
plan.
So that's why he's involvedprimarily.
SPEAKER_00 (12:50):
We got a familiar face, and we got a new face that
maybe you and I know this younglady, but let's go with uh
number two here.
This is the new face.
Now I bring her up.
She's uh she's a very smart gal.
Talk about this young lady alittle bit.
SPEAKER_01 (13:04):
Okay.
From the small businessadministration, Kelly Loffler.
She was actually in the finalrunning running to be USDA
secretary, but then he choseBrooke Rollins.
She's in it primarily as aresult of uh increasing uh the
loans to establish more small,smaller beef processing plants.
(13:24):
So that's why SBA is involved.
And uh for for perspective here,Tommy, you had some of these
programs already in place underthe farmer Biden administration,
the uh USD former USDA secretaryTom Vilsack.
So this is just a continuationand an enhanced version of some
(13:45):
of the programs that werefrankly already in place.
SPEAKER_00 (13:48):
And we got to bring in my father's least favorite
person.
He doesn't like secretary candy.
I might just, as a joke, put apicture of Kennedy on his
nightstand and just see how longit takes for him to see it.
What's Kennedy?
SPEAKER_01 (14:00):
Robert F.
Kennedy.
Well, this goes into the foodprograms, this goes into the
dietary guidelines, etc.
But the good part of this ishe's he's saying him to himself,
meat is a good protein.
And within reason, that shouldbe part of the plan.
So that's a plus side.
We finally got some good newsout of him on the ag sector.
SPEAKER_00 (14:20):
All right, let's go to this little bugger.
New world screwworm.
Just can't seem to lose thissubject.
And then we're not going to, arewe?
SPEAKER_01 (14:27):
Well, well, no, but that the the new world screw
worm Mexico situation got intothe market today.
I think that's why you weretanking earlier, because late
yesterday Reuters put out areport that Mexico's ag
secretary is coming to the U.S.
to talk with Brooke Rollins andhopefully to reestablish to open
(14:49):
the border for Mexican cattle.
Now, people don't think that'sgoing to happen, but let me tell
you some background storieshere.
Please do.
This was part of the discussion.
Some, not all, some people triedto encourage Brooke Rollins to
do that, but she chose not to.
So but I think it's coming.
I don't know when.
(15:09):
The reason I say that, I did ahistory and it's on your site
probably.
It's in today's report.
My updates today.
I looked at the history of sincethe 80s and even before that,
when Mexico had screwworm.
We never closed the border inpast years.
It was only last year when wehad an incident or two in Mexico
(15:31):
that we closed the border.
Remember, and then it reopened,and then they got more cases,
and then it's been closed eversince.
There was long years establishedon both sides of the of the
border, and I looked at thoseyears and it was a fairly
effective you know deterrence.
(15:52):
But I think Brooke Rollins wantsto see that sterile fly plant
well on its way and increasingthe number of sterile flies
before we see an actual uhopening of the border, and then
only from certain states,probably, and and going into
Arizona and certain Mexicostates, the western you know,
(16:13):
states where it's relativelyfree.
But that got into the market totoday.
So we're gonna have some someinformation next week.
We'll see.
Now, Rollins has been rathernegative on Mexico's involvement
in this you know, keeping thisuh screwworm out, but they've
been doing some things uh thatmuch to to to USDA's uh applaud
(16:37):
privately.
So I just think it's a matter oftime before the border opens.
Now, if you want more cattle andbeef, this is the way to do it,
not imports, you import thecattle.
But I know there's listeners outthere in the cattle industry
say, wait a minute, you know, bevery careful if you're gonna do
that.
SPEAKER_00 (16:55):
Yeah, and just in reference, this is a live cattle
daily chart.
We're coming back to prices thatthis sounds insulting to people.
We haven't been this low sincethe beginning of the month,
right?
Yeah, but if you're involved inthis, this is very painful
because anyone who's boughtcattle recently now is already
upside down, correct?
Now, this is feeder cattle, Jim.
This is November feeder cattle.
(17:17):
What people probably can't seehere is the January, March,
April, May, August, all the backmonth feeder cattles all the way
across, and all the live cattleswere limit down in that and
we're bigger limits than we usedto be.
It's not like the old days wherewe're down a couple dollars,
we're down big dollars a month.
Yeah, yeah.
Then we'll have expanded limitson Monday.
(17:38):
So, folks, if you're out thereor if you're worried, I did put
my number at the bottom.
It's easy to get a hold of us.
And uh, of course, you can go tothe website, there's a contact
us page.
Real quick, we're about halfwaythrough the lightning round.
If you're enjoying this content,Mr.
Weissmeyer allows us to have theshow for free.
It's it's the best show outthere.
But if you're enjoying thiscontent, we have premium
content.
(17:59):
If you notice, I didn't put outa lot of content this week.
I actually put it out, but itwas pay for content.
www.agbull.com.
Right there, you can clickmonthly or yearly.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer is so generous andloves the egg community so much,
he decided the Weissmeier showis going to be free.
Now, with that, here's where weget into the real serious stuff.
(18:20):
We had to take a littlecommercial break because now we
get real serious.
And I'm really interested whatyou have to say about this.
SPEAKER_01 (18:28):
Well, Trump says he's going to meet with Xi
Jinping, China's leader, nextThursday in South Korea.
China has still not officiallyconfirmed that the meeting is
going to take place.
I think it will, but I I, youknow, I want to hear China say
they're going to meet.
Now, when the two, if if andwhen the two meet, they both are
(18:50):
coming at this meeting with fardifferent expectations.
Trump loves deliverables.
And so the Wall Street Journalhad a story that I commented on
today in my updates, in which Iheadlined it uh G thinks he's
got Trump's number.
They have read the art of thedeal, they know Trump's
(19:12):
emotionality, they know that toget concessions, they gotta pat
him on the back, say he's good,the relationship is good, and
give him some things that hewants.
And those things are, includesome purchases, Chinese
purchases of U.S.
soybeans and sorghum.
They added sorghum this week,which I think is a good, thank
(19:34):
goodness, because the Milopeople really need it.
So we're gonna see if they meet.
I think you're gonna see some ofthese deliverables, and then
we'll have to see if they issuea statement.
That's another thing that I'velearned to look out for.
If they issue a statement, bothcountries issue a statement
after they meet, that's a goodsign.
(19:55):
But if they don't, then well, itthey just agreed to meet and
maybe a few things.
But what does China want?
China's gonna want somethingbecause frankly, Xi Jinping
thinks that China's above theUnited States now.
They think that their economy isgonna be better over the long
haul.
He thinks 10, 20, 30 yearsahead.
(20:17):
That's uh Gi on the right side.
Yeah, yeah.
And so he's coming in thismeeting with a little more
bravado.
He's got the uh preciousminerals, things that he thinks
he's got the US caught, but Idon't think that's true because
we import almost 300 billiondollars more from China.
(20:40):
We have a deficit, they need us.
SPEAKER_02 (20:43):
They need us.
SPEAKER_01 (20:44):
So if Trump really were to pull out big time,
China's economy was tilt south,just like that fear cattle chart
that you showed, by the way.
SPEAKER_00 (20:54):
And and full disclosure, we've had a nice
little healthy, healthy rally insoybeans while the government's
closed, and while we don't haveallegedly China buying, but we
wouldn't know if they werebuying, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (21:04):
Yeah, because the daily export sales report is not
being announced because USDA isclosed.
Yeah, uh yeah, we've had apretty good rally here.
In fact, you're you're above onsoybean prices where you were a
year ago.
I checked on that the other day.
SPEAKER_00 (21:19):
Very much so, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (21:19):
Yeah, so and corn too, same thing.
SPEAKER_00 (21:22):
Technically, we're breaking out too.
I do a video with uh KerryArtec, and he had a level in
soybeans.
We broke out.
I I'm gonna post a picture.
Tell me what you think of this.
SPEAKER_01 (21:32):
I hold the cards, the cards are made in China.
That's the there's more truth tothat, you'd think.
Now back to the cards.
Oh, thank goodness.
Yeah, now I gotta look at allthe decks of cards I have to see
where they're listening this isfancy stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (21:46):
I don't even know what this next headline means.
I just put it in there.
SPEAKER_01 (21:49):
Well, this is interesting because of the
timing.
The U.S.
Trade Representative's officetoday, maybe about an hour or so
ago, announced a Section 301investigation of China's uh
fulfillment or lack offulfillment of the phase one
agreement.
Remember that one under thefirst Trump administration?
The timing of that was not amistake.
(22:10):
That's to give that's to giveanother card, if you will.
There's your card angle there.
That's to give another card toTrump, to Xi Jinping saying,
hey, where's accountability?
At least the U.S.
follows through on commitments.
You didn't.
And just because you think Bidenwas weak didn't doesn't mean
that you shouldn't havefulfilled the terms that you
(22:32):
signed.
And I've got pictures of yourpeople signing it.
SPEAKER_00 (22:35):
And we're talking about these right here,
soybeans.
SPEAKER_01 (22:37):
This is big time soybeans and other primarily
soybeans, yeah.
They were uh short of the oftheir commitment, they just
dropped it.
Now they can say that it wasCOVID and other things, but no,
they didn't fulfill the terms.
That's why you have a 301investigation.
And this is a little moreleverage that Trump can have.
(22:57):
So I think it was a smart moveon the part of the you know, you
know, Trump administration togive him another quiver in his
arsenal.
Trump trade talks with Canadaoff, but the their prime
minister said today he wants touh resume those negotiations.
This is internal Canadianpolitics because the Premier of
(23:20):
Ontario a few weeks ago edited,and it was, I think, a bad edit,
prior Reagan comments ontariffs, saying that they really
don't work, etc.
Even though in Japan Reaganselectively used tariffs.
But you have to know Trump.
He doesn't like that.
But what people also don't knowis Trump gets a little jealous
(23:43):
of former president RonaldReagan because of the love
Reagan has within the RepublicanParty.
So he thinks that Reagan was toomoderate.
And when when he saw what Canadawas doing, he thought, stop all
talks.
I don't think that's gonna last.
I think we they we he willresume talks after probably
(24:07):
getting a call from Canada'sprime minister.
We won't hear it, but uh hewould say, Mr.
President, it's uh our Ontariopremier.
He got out of sorts, heshouldn't have done it.
Let's talk, and I think thatthey will.
So I think this is mainly acouple day story and that
they'll go back to talks.
SPEAKER_00 (24:28):
Trump deal with Japan.
SPEAKER_01 (24:30):
Yeah, you know, Trump's gonna meet.
He's not only gonna want to meetwith Xi Jinping, if Xi Jinping
will say yes, he's gonna bemeeting with Japan, in which
Japan, who has a new primeminister, they're gonna fulfill
the terms of that U.S.
Japanese agreement.
And I think they're gonnaannounce even additional imports
of U.S.
commodities above theirtraditional purchases, and I'm
(24:52):
not talking just rice, so thiscould be a good thing in the in
in the next few days, Tommy, onJapan.
That's a good thing.
We got positive news.
SPEAKER_00 (25:03):
We don't bring up Japan a lot.
SPEAKER_01 (25:05):
No, no, but they're they're a good ally and they're
a really good customer of U.S.
commodities.
So that's a good thing.
That's a good thing.
SPEAKER_00 (25:13):
All right, let's see what we have after Japan here.
So much coming out.
SPEAKER_01 (25:18):
Yeah, Brazil, Lula is the leader of Brazil, and he
wants to meet maybe I think thisweekend.
Now, Trump's leaving at 10:40p.m.
tonight, Eastern time.
Now, Trump runs late likeClinton did all the time, so I
don't know whether he'llactually leave at that time.
But when he goes overinternationally, Lula is already
(25:39):
there and he wants to talk atrade agreement.
Yes.
Now that could be importantbecause if you recall, we added
10% tariffs on Brazil beforeTrump increased it by 40% to 50%
tariffs.
Well, that decimated theirhamburger shipments to the
United States.
And they can ship far morehamburger to the United States
(26:01):
than Argentina can, and it'sbetter quality, by the way.
So I'm not I'm not predictingthat, but I'm telling you that
this Brazil-Argentina mix, I'mnot going to rule out a trade
agreement between the twocountries that could include uh
lower coffee tariffs uh to lowerthe price of coffee and that uh
(26:22):
beef, especially hamburger.
SPEAKER_00 (26:24):
And he references this, Jim, in this in this truce
social.
He says the only reason cattlepeople are doing well is because
my 50% tariff in Brazil, it'sright there in the middle of the
meat of that.
Now, it's complete BS becausethe cattle market's been
rallying since COVID of 20, butthat's for a different day.
SPEAKER_01 (26:42):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Under Trump 101 rules, you know,it's just what it just didn't
make sense.
Didn't make sense.
And and it puts Brooke Rollinsin a spot, as I said before.
It's just incorrect, but that'sTrump.
He just doesn't understand thecattle market, he doesn't
understand that it takes two tothree years.
(27:03):
It's called the cattle cycle.
He doesn't understand just tolet the market work.
He thinks it could be like theegg situation, in which they
they they did reach the top ofthe egg market when they
announced their five-point plan.
SPEAKER_00 (27:17):
There's there, there it's there's Trump eating beef.
He had his own beef company fora while, his own Trump stakes,
yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (27:22):
And I said before, he usually puts ketchup on
steak, by the way.
A lot of people don't know that.
SPEAKER_00 (27:27):
Oh boy, that's two strikes against him.
All right, we got we got this.
This one's interesting.
API pull support for year-roundE15 needs reform.
That's gotta hurt.
SPEAKER_01 (27:37):
That just just at the time where you think there
was momentum again foryear-round E-15 in Congress or
the White House, AmericanPetroleum Institute comes out
the middle of the week saying,Well, we've withdrawn our
support at this time because wewant to see reforms in the
ethanol and in the biofuels uharena.
(27:58):
They didn't detail, but I'vebeen told they want some changes
on the small refineryexemptions.
In other words, a little givecorn growers won't like.
They want a little give on theuh the what do I want to say?
SPEAKER_00 (28:13):
You'll think of it.
SPEAKER_01 (28:14):
45Z, 45Z program.
They want uh lower rin prices,etc.
So uh I always was suspect whenAPI initially came out in
support of year-round D-15.
Now I know they didn't havefollow-through.
So that's just it's anotherhurdle ahead for the year-round
D-15 to be determined later.
(28:37):
Oh, and this is coming nextweek, I think Tuesday, the
Senate Judiciary Committee isgonna have a hearing on seed and
fertilizer.
You'll recall that the Rollinsannounced that in a memorandum,
the Department of Justice andUSDA was investing will
investigate fertilizer and seedcompanies.
(28:59):
And so now Congress is gonnapick up on that.
They're gonna hold a hearing.
Now, I think you put it on yoursite, Tommy, but I did a major
fertilizer report this week.
A look at the past, a futurecurrent and the history of the
U.S.
fertilizer and world fertilizermarkets.
So I would I would encourage uhlisteners and and and viewers to
(29:24):
look at that report because Ispent some time on that to show
how the US regulations in the70s and 80s almost drove the
U.S.
fertilizer production out ofthis great country.
And that's why.
And we have 90% of the potashcomes from Canada.
And and look how we're treatingCanada.
(29:44):
So there are reasons whyfertilizer prices are are high.
And that that report showsabsolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (29:50):
If you'd like to reference that, Jim's talking
about that, it's on the EGBOwebsite now.
And that that report was calledspecifically Jim so they could
search for it.
SPEAKER_01 (29:57):
I don't know now anymore.
SPEAKER_00 (30:00):
Well you put out seven yesterday.
Hey, read them all.
SPEAKER_01 (30:03):
They were all fertilizer in the headline.
Fertilizer is in the headline.
But it tells you also how Chinawent from an importer to a major
exporter of fertilizer.
So that's called a mega change,by the way.
SPEAKER_00 (30:17):
A mega change.
SPEAKER_01 (30:19):
A mega change, yeah.
And so it's it's it's a goodreport.
I want to do another one onseed, but I'm gonna do have to
work this weekend to get itdone.
So we'll see.
SPEAKER_00 (30:29):
All right.
This sounds like a song,wrecking ball.
SPEAKER_01 (30:34):
It was just like Miley Cyrus wrecking ball,
because it's down the east wingof the White House.
Not the actual, it's theattachment to the White House.
He didn't, he didn't put theball to the White House,
although it's got Democrats alljust aflutter.
I mean, they just, oh mygoodness.
But history clearly shows, Imean, that the White House has
(30:58):
changed over the decades.
Your Truman balcony on the onthe on the back end of the White
House.
That was done in the Trumanadministration.
Yeah, there's the when they werestarting to put the wrecking
ball.
That's on the TreasuryDepartment side of the White
House for those people who knowWashington.
And it was really where they hadthe White House theater and
(31:22):
things like that.
But Trump wants a 90,000 squarefoot, looks like 300 million or
350 million dollar ballroom, notpaid by taxpayers.
He'll help pay and someindependent some private private
people are gonna pay.
But speaking of that, theDemocrats are already saying
that's pay-to-play, you know,things like that.
SPEAKER_00 (31:43):
Sure, sure, sure, sure.
Who's paying the U.S.
military?
SPEAKER_01 (31:47):
Nobody right now.
And they the Democrats rejectedseveral attempts to do that.
So that's not a good sign.
And these the the pressurepoints on having the government
uh stay out are are increasing.
You're seeing it with morecancellations of airline flights
or delays in flights, and I'mgoing to be traveling pretty
(32:10):
soon, so they'll get my ire.
And you've got the food stamp,uh, the snap uh program.
A number of states have whittleddown their reserves.
And so now we're hitting thepressure points, which again, I
think we probably got a week to10 days before both sides say,
hey, let's get together and dosomething.
(32:32):
Will it be time, by the way,Tommy, to do the November crop
report?
That's a big question.
I don't know.
But if you go into the first fewdays of November, I think that
they won't have a November cropproduction report, but we're
gonna see.
And I think it could be veryclose.
SPEAKER_00 (32:47):
Okay.
What I was referencing, Jim, wasI thought Trump said some
anonymous donor gave 150 milliondollars to get they could.
SPEAKER_01 (32:55):
I didn't know that, but I didn't doubt it.
SPEAKER_00 (32:57):
I mean, there's kept coming out.
Oh, well, we got the troops paidbecause this anonymous donor
talk about pay to play or beingin the good.
SPEAKER_01 (33:03):
Oh, the troops, you mean the troops?
Yeah, oh well, I think he'llhe'll bend over backwards,
they'll find the money.
There are so many billions.
Yeah, there's so many billionsof dollars floating around.
The government, the government.
I mean, look how they came upwith three billion dollars to to
bring back the farm serviceagency.
I mean, it's it's there.
SPEAKER_00 (33:25):
Let's skip over billions.
That's boring.
Let's talk about trillions.
Stock market hit all-time highsjust a little bit ago.
SPEAKER_01 (33:33):
My 401k is 501k, Tommy.
I'm happy.
I'm happy papy on that one now.
Let's just hope it continues.
But we're getting in into frothyareas, but this thing could uh
run for a while because of uhless than expected inflation.
Your US economy is pretty goodshape.
(33:54):
You you could have a three and ahalf to four percent gross
domestic product in the nextquarter or two.
You've got next year those onebig beautiful bill, tax pluses,
uh, investment, equipmentdepreciation, et cetera, coming
into play.
And if we ever could get thistrade policy stabilized, then uh
(34:17):
companies could plan.
Right now, they don't want toget too aggressive in hiring new
people, putting out newproducts, et cetera.
But all that could change if wehad any stability in some of the
things that we're talking aboutright now, Tommy.
So I'm still upbeat on the U.S.
economy.
I think I the the labor, youknow, situation is a little bad.
(34:41):
The unemployment keeps goinghigher, but that's why you're
gonna have lower interest rates.
Even our Fed chairman realizesthat now.
SPEAKER_00 (34:48):
Absolutely.
And I think I forgot toreference this chart, so now
it'd be a good time.
Uh the stock market believes inwhat Trump's doing, but maybe
not what Congress is doing.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (34:57):
Look at the look at the yeah, look at the the the
historical low for Congress.
Look at look at that number.
That's even low for Congress.
And you know, if you took outthe the husbands and wives of
lawmakers, their parents, theirgrandparents, and others, it
(35:17):
would be single digits.
It would be single digits, butthat shouldn't surprise people
because what Congress isdysfunctional.
And and I'll say it again, weshould never have a shutdown of
the government if the lawmakersfrom both political parties
would just do their job.
And that's just not theappropriators, it's the leaders
(35:39):
of both the Republican andDemocratic parties who won't
give the appropriators.
The appropriators are the oneswho sp who actually determine
where the spending goes, butthey have to get a top-level
number first from thecongressional leadership, and
they take forever to get thatnumber, and that's why you back
up, it's like backing up cattle.
(35:59):
It just it you just you you youjust it it takes so long in the
fiscal year to get that number.
So I point the finger for thisshutdown at both political
parties, but Congress, both theappropriators and the
congressional leadership at thehighest level.
And when I ask them why do youdo that?
(36:20):
Both sides tell me, leverage.
This gives them leverage to getwhat they want.
Is that any way to run agovernment?
It's not, it's not.
We gotta we gotta get throughthis.
SPEAKER_00 (36:32):
One last picture, and then we'll just talk a
little bit.
What's the deal with this?
SPEAKER_01 (36:37):
Oh, yeah, that 38 trillion dollars.
Look at how fast we've gone overthe last two trillion dollars,
fastest in ever.
That tells you this thing'sgotta stop.
I mean, it's gotta temperbecause the bond market, if they
think Washington has lostcontrol, you'll have real
interest rates go higher fasterthan anyone realizes.
(37:00):
And some people say, oh, thedebt doesn't matter.
Well, it does matter.
$38 trillion when when you don'thave a way to deal with it.
So watch that for the future inthe bond market.
SPEAKER_00 (37:11):
All right, we're getting to the last one, U.S.
sanctions.
President Columbia.
This just came out a few minutesago.
Thoughts on this?
SPEAKER_01 (37:17):
Yeah, the president and his top people are getting
serious about the drug cartelsin Venezuela and Colombia.
You've seen the killings on theships and things like that.
And now we just sent some prettybig military hardware over to
Latin America.
This doesn't look good for thething, and he's flexing the
American muscle on that.
(37:38):
And that's the president ofColombia who Trump had more than
a few negative words uh about.
He he's getting serious aboutthe drug issue because he says
Trump says every time that uhthat a boat is hit, that saves
25,000 American lives.
SPEAKER_00 (38:02):
And I told Gina I was gonna lay down and she said,
Why aren't you laying down?
I said, Gina, he, this guy's notgonna be president forever.
And the energy and his abilityto answer a question.
I know people, I hey, if you'reout there and you want to
comment on this video, drop acomment.
But if you didn't watch this, goback and watch it.
Yeah, each one of his importantstaff that was involved in this,
(38:24):
he gave him time to talk, hedidn't talk over them, and then
he answered questions.
I don't know if there's a personin the room who didn't get to
ask questions.
Did you see that lady fromFrance try to answer a question,
but he couldn't understand her?
SPEAKER_01 (38:36):
Yeah, he he is the most energetic president I've
ever covered, and he does.
He is quick with the facts.
He they tell me that he readsvociferously.
And here's a little nugget forfor the listeners and viewers.
I've changed the way I have tocover both USDA and the White
(38:59):
House.
Now I I look at first XX, theold Twitter, I look at Truth
Social, that's that's Trump's uhuh you know social media, then
Fox News, Fox Business News, andCNBC.
Why is that?
Because Trump likes to be onthose programs, and his cabinet
(39:21):
knows that.
So uh in the case of BrookeRollins, she doesn't give many
ag related pressers anymore.
She goes right on Fox News orFox Business or CNBC because
they know President Trump iswatching.
So that's a way for them to seeuh for Trump to see what they
(39:43):
are doing.
So that's why I've got to mannedall those programs now where I
really didn't have to all thatmuch before.
Now it's must must view TV.
SPEAKER_00 (39:52):
Well, Mr.
Weismeyer, we've come to the endof the show.
I hate to say goodbye, but uhI'm sure you'll be putting out a
release real quick, folks.
Thank you for watching.
If you'd like to get a hold ofJim, his email's right there,
weismeyer at gmail.
If you'd like to see Jim's stuffcome out, he'll email it
directly to you.
Or you can go to the Agblewebsite.
We have it posted up there now.
(40:13):
If you really, really enjoy whatwe're putting out.
Of course, we have our premiumcontent, and uh, we'd love to
see you move over to the premiumside.
Mr.
Weissmeyer is gonna take ushome.
He's gonna leave us.
You're not done yet.
You're gonna leave us withsomething optimistic and why he
loves America.
Mr.
Jim Weissmeyer, Wiesmeyer'sperspectives.
SPEAKER_01 (40:32):
Watch some of the weekend developments and next
week.
I think we'll get some positivenews on the ag front, both from
the trade policy and economic uharena.
And that's good news.
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gristaffi with the EggBowPodcast, EggBow Media and Eggbow
Trading.
Well, to say it's been a week,that'd be an understatement.
Lucky for you, we have just theguy to break it all down.
Now, we've got to give him aformal introduction.
I think the only way to do thatis just to tell you a little bit
about Jim Weismeyer and give hima nice open.
(00:20):
Everyone, enjoy the show.
unknown (00:52):
Mr.
SPEAKER_00 (00:53):
Jim Weissmeyer.
Live from DC.
How are you doing, my friend?
SPEAKER_01 (00:57):
I'm good, except tired because we had Trump on
steroids plus two.
SPEAKER_00 (01:04):
Oh my God.
Absolutely, absolutely.
Let's get right in the show.
Where would you like to start?
How about with U.S.
government shutdown?
SPEAKER_01 (01:11):
Yes.
When and how?
I think we're approaching thetime.
November 1.
I think it could go until uhNovember 1 or a little later.
Why do I say that?
That's when the Obamacare or theAffordable Care Act major
increases will take place, andthe Democrats lose their
(01:32):
argument that they want themextended because the Republicans
are not giving in on that.
They want major reforms to thatprogram, and they don't want to
do it unless and until thegovernment comes back to work.
So after November 1, theincreases are already in place.
(01:53):
And the Democrats, I think, willhave their political issue that
I really think they wanted allalong.
They'll never say this publicly.
They want to blame Trump and theRepublicans for the dramatic
increase in the Affordable CareAct or Obamacare Act payments to
use that in the 2026 electionsbecause they want to win at
(02:14):
least one chamber of the Houseof Congress, probably the House,
so they can help neuterPresident Trump for the last two
years of his secondadministration.
That's at least my perspectiveon that one.
So it could it will be intoNovember.
I know it's going to take untilearly next week because the
(02:36):
House has already said they'renot coming back, and the Senate
isn't back until next week, too.
So government shutdowncontinues.
It's now the second longest, uh,and it's going to continue.
SPEAKER_00 (02:49):
FSA partially open, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (02:52):
Yeah, there's a few kinks, but early in the week
they should be not fully backed.
There's two people in each FSAoffice.
They were manning the phonestrying to get those two uh
individuals for each countyoffice, and they're getting
close to that.
And they had to make sure thatthe money, the funding was moved
(03:13):
into the accounts before theystarted hitting the send uh
button on some of the around$3billion in payments, but they're
coming.
And that's for the ARC PLCpayments for the uh 2024 crop,
that's for the ag disasterwands, marketing ag loans,
things like that.
So at least they're back, and atleast about$3 billion of cash
(03:34):
flow is getting out there.
SPEAKER_00 (03:36):
Unbelievable.
All right.
I want to see you.
Good to see you.
This is my world, my old daysfrom the border trade bond pits
and stuff.
CPI came out today, and uh, Ibelieve you have some color on
this, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (03:49):
Yes, on the CPI, it actually came in a little bit
below the market expectations.
Uh, look at that, 0.3 percent.
The overall inflation rateannually was at 3%.
But the the market impact ofthis was twofold.
One, it gave the equity marketthe bravado to make new highs, I
(04:10):
think across the board here.
And two, it it uh increases theodds that uh late this month,
next week, we're gonna haveanother 25 basis points cut in
the Fed funds rate.
So that was an important report.
It showed that uh food inflationwas a little lower than August.
This was a September report, butit clearly showed those beef
(04:33):
prices are high and they'reprobably going to uh uh uh stay
high.
Uh, they also said at the WhiteHouse that uh remember this was
the September CPI report.
They've already said to theWhite House they don't expect to
release the October reportbecause of the government
shutdown.
SPEAKER_00 (04:50):
I did see that.
Yeah, a lot of news coming out.
Now, to note, I think todaywe're supposed to have cattle on
feed.
I don't think that's coming out,just to note.
But uh yeah, a lot of a lot ofinteresting stuff.
Hey, let's just real quick whilewe're chatting here, I want to
tell people I'm super excitedabout this.
If they like your content, asfast as you're putting out
content, of course, they cansubscribe to it right there at
the bottom, folks, weismeyer atgmail.com, or they can go to the
(05:14):
Ag Bull website, www.agbull.com.
Just go to AgBull Intel.
Jim Weissmeyer has his owncolumn called Weissmeyer's
Perspectives, where we arepumping out.
Now, normally Jim would put outa story or two a day, but uh,
did you set a new recordyesterday?
Six, seven publications.
SPEAKER_01 (05:33):
It was too much, but let me see your fingers.
SPEAKER_00 (05:35):
Are there any it was one of these days?
SPEAKER_01 (05:37):
Yeah, I've got cramps.
Uh it was one of these days, butimportant, uh, important stuff
this week.
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (05:43):
Back to lightning round here.
Now, this Argentina beefimports.
Oh boy, are you sitting down?
SPEAKER_01 (05:49):
Yes, yes.
The uh Argentine beef imports,they quadrupled them from all
this is what uh Trump said.
Yeah, he seeks quadrupling beefuh purchases from Argentina, but
they're going from 20,000 tonsto 80,000 tons.
Well, yeah, I hate to say it,but it's peanuts.
SPEAKER_00 (06:09):
Yeah, well, I got a chart to represent that, and uh
this was from a friend on uhwell, explain why it's peanuts,
and I'll get the chart up.
SPEAKER_01 (06:16):
Well, we we consume 13 million metric tons of beef a
year.
13 million metric tons, and thisis 80,000 metric tons.
SPEAKER_00 (06:28):
Now explain to folks, and for our people
listening on Spotify and stuffwho can't see the chart.
Sorry to talk over you.
SPEAKER_01 (06:34):
That Argentina, if this is a pie chart and the
Argentina is in maroon and it'ssqueezy little at 2% of uh 2025
US beef imports by country.
Now it's gonna go up what threepercent, you know.
SPEAKER_00 (06:50):
That's yeah, I mean it's still it it it's really
nothing.
SPEAKER_01 (06:53):
No, but it's it's the optics.
You know, listeners will want toknow well, why did the market
what what feeder cattle wentdown over$23 a head?
SPEAKER_00 (07:02):
Are you suggesting I post a picture of feeder chart?
SPEAKER_01 (07:04):
Yeah, I would if we have it there.
We ooh boy, that's a ski slope.
You don't want to go down.
Yeah, that shows you rightthere.
It's it it was, and you youyou're a trader, Tommy, you know
that it's the optics of it andit's the fear angle.
Like, well, what else can happenhere?
SPEAKER_00 (07:21):
You know, yeah, and and something happened here, and
uh, we'll get to this chart in alittle bit.
That one I jumped the gun whenyou lock limit up or down.
Now, two weeks ago or threeweeks ago, where like feeder
cattle had one of its biggestmoves in history, it was up
twenty dollars.
It's okay, and I'm gonna maybepeople were gonna catch some
slack for this, and I'm okaywith it.
Why is it okay to go up twentydollars, but it's not okay to go
(07:44):
down twenty dollars because thetone, the rhetoric, they didn't
like his rhetoric.
It was a very I didn't like hisrhetoric.
SPEAKER_01 (07:50):
Did you emotional rhetoric, emotional rhetoric uh
rhetoric?
And he I know the cattle youknow producers in the US are
thinking, hey, America firsthere, Mr.
President.
But remember what I said lastweek in this term of the Trump
administration, America first isconsumers first, it's not
(08:12):
producers first.
That's what a lot of people aremisreading his second term.
And also, he doesn't understandthe cattle market, he's as what
we call all hat, you know what Imean?
And you can imagine theconstraints this has put on USDA
Secretary Brooke Rollins.
She can only go so far, and whenhe says he's going to increase
(08:36):
the uh imports, well, she cangive him some arguments, maybe
per or con, and I think she did,but he's the decider.
Now, there's geopoliticsinvolved here too, Tommy, okay,
because he this is this is aChina complex thing, because
he's trying to get uh Argentina,Brazil more in the US flank
(08:57):
versus uh China and the BRICScountries.
And so this is tied into farmore geopolitical things than I
think the ag industry uhrealizes.
So we're into heady, headyground here.
SPEAKER_00 (09:13):
But is it like a us against them?
SPEAKER_01 (09:14):
Let's it's almost, yeah.
We're we're de-risking ourselvesfrom China and vice versa.
China's doing the same thing.
SPEAKER_00 (09:23):
Oh, they're picking teams, yeah.
We're all right.
Oh, picking teams, yeah.
Russia fight, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (09:27):
Yeah, Russia, Iran, ex uh North Korea, etc.
SPEAKER_00 (09:31):
That's really scary, Jim, because they're playing
with people's livelihood, myfriend.
SPEAKER_01 (09:35):
They are, they are.
SPEAKER_00 (09:37):
Did I tell you this one, or is this no?
SPEAKER_01 (09:40):
This is one.
We've got the picture of theplant.
They announced again a 1313-page plan.
I mean, that included a lot ofthings.
Actually, there were there weresome things in there that the
cattle industry, uh, some in thecattle industry have wanted for
years.
Uh, it wasn't mandatory countryof origin labeling, but it was
(10:00):
voluntary.
There's uh souped up uh fundingand uh attention on helping uh
get some more smaller meatprocessing plants.
That's easier said than done, bythe way, in my judgment, and
some other aspects, but thattells you the focus.
When was the last time you sawout of any White House a 13-page
(10:22):
plan for the cattle industry?
Now, normally cattle producers,very independent, and I don't
blame them.
They don't want, they don't wanttoo much involvement here by the
government.
And the farm state lawmakers aresaying the same thing.
Senator Chuck Grassley said uhthis week that when it came to
Argentina and Trump and cattle,that the president should just
(10:43):
shut up, you know, and thatechoed what I think a lot of
livestock producers are arethinking privately.
Yeah, but Trump is looking atthe consumer, he's irritated
that beef prices are uh so highand they're staying high.
But look at the price of coffee,Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (11:03):
I saw coffee hit a record high yesterday.
Correct, Jim?
SPEAKER_01 (11:06):
Absolutely, and look at that versus a hamburger.
Yeah, it's expensive, but uhversus coffee, plus you get good
protein from beef.
So uh yet and I'm not seeingdemand going down.
And this is what I wish that ourpresident would understand.
(11:26):
Let the market work, you know.
When the when the governmentgets involved in market
handling, you know, you usuallyget unintended consequences, and
we're seeing them right now.
The market isn't perfect, as weboth know, no, but it's far
better than the weak hand of agovernment coming in and trying
(11:49):
to basically manipulate things,and then people lose trust of
the market.
SPEAKER_00 (11:54):
You can't go take a big position home over the
weekend, not knowing that youcan't get out on Monday.
That's the problem, Jim.
We don't mind having a loser,but can I get out of my loser?
That's the trader in me.
I want to go back a little bit.
Absolutely.
Yeah, Secretary Rollins tweetedthis, or her people tweeted
this, and there's some veryinteresting people here skimming
(12:15):
over this.
The first person here, DougBergum's involved in this.
Protect and improve business ofranching.
Doug Bergam, why is he involved?
SPEAKER_01 (12:23):
Well, that's on the grazing.
They're gonna they're gonnaincrease some grazing on federal
lands.
That's to get some more cattle,you know, you know, grazing.
So he had to get involved in thepermitting.
He's very good on the permittingprocess.
He's he he's a veryknowledgeable guy.
Thank goodness he's in the he'sin the cabinet.
So he'll direct if they want toincrease grazing on federal
(12:43):
lands, he's the guy to uhexecute uh you know uh that that
plan.
So that's why he's involvedprimarily.
SPEAKER_00 (12:50):
We got a familiar face, and we got a new face that
maybe you and I know this younglady, but let's go with uh
number two here.
This is the new face.
Now I bring her up.
She's uh she's a very smart gal.
Talk about this young lady alittle bit.
SPEAKER_01 (13:04):
Okay.
From the small businessadministration, Kelly Loffler.
She was actually in the finalrunning running to be USDA
secretary, but then he choseBrooke Rollins.
She's in it primarily as aresult of uh increasing uh the
loans to establish more small,smaller beef processing plants.
(13:24):
So that's why SBA is involved.
And uh for for perspective here,Tommy, you had some of these
programs already in place underthe farmer Biden administration,
the uh USD former USDA secretaryTom Vilsack.
So this is just a continuationand an enhanced version of some
(13:45):
of the programs that werefrankly already in place.
SPEAKER_00 (13:48):
And we got to bring in my father's least favorite
person.
He doesn't like secretary candy.
I might just, as a joke, put apicture of Kennedy on his
nightstand and just see how longit takes for him to see it.
What's Kennedy?
SPEAKER_01 (14:00):
Robert F.
Kennedy.
Well, this goes into the foodprograms, this goes into the
dietary guidelines, etc.
But the good part of this ishe's he's saying him to himself,
meat is a good protein.
And within reason, that shouldbe part of the plan.
So that's a plus side.
We finally got some good newsout of him on the ag sector.
SPEAKER_00 (14:20):
All right, let's go to this little bugger.
New world screwworm.
Just can't seem to lose thissubject.
And then we're not going to, arewe?
SPEAKER_01 (14:27):
Well, well, no, but that the the new world screw
worm Mexico situation got intothe market today.
I think that's why you weretanking earlier, because late
yesterday Reuters put out areport that Mexico's ag
secretary is coming to the U.S.
to talk with Brooke Rollins andhopefully to reestablish to open
(14:49):
the border for Mexican cattle.
Now, people don't think that'sgoing to happen, but let me tell
you some background storieshere.
Please do.
This was part of the discussion.
Some, not all, some people triedto encourage Brooke Rollins to
do that, but she chose not to.
So but I think it's coming.
I don't know when.
(15:09):
The reason I say that, I did ahistory and it's on your site
probably.
It's in today's report.
My updates today.
I looked at the history of sincethe 80s and even before that,
when Mexico had screwworm.
We never closed the border inpast years.
It was only last year when wehad an incident or two in Mexico
(15:31):
that we closed the border.
Remember, and then it reopened,and then they got more cases,
and then it's been closed eversince.
There was long years establishedon both sides of the of the
border, and I looked at thoseyears and it was a fairly
effective you know deterrence.
(15:52):
But I think Brooke Rollins wantsto see that sterile fly plant
well on its way and increasingthe number of sterile flies
before we see an actual uhopening of the border, and then
only from certain states,probably, and and going into
Arizona and certain Mexicostates, the western you know,
(16:13):
states where it's relativelyfree.
But that got into the market totoday.
So we're gonna have some someinformation next week.
We'll see.
Now, Rollins has been rathernegative on Mexico's involvement
in this you know, keeping thisuh screwworm out, but they've
been doing some things uh thatmuch to to to USDA's uh applaud
(16:37):
privately.
So I just think it's a matter oftime before the border opens.
Now, if you want more cattle andbeef, this is the way to do it,
not imports, you import thecattle.
But I know there's listeners outthere in the cattle industry
say, wait a minute, you know, bevery careful if you're gonna do
that.
SPEAKER_00 (16:55):
Yeah, and just in reference, this is a live cattle
daily chart.
We're coming back to prices thatthis sounds insulting to people.
We haven't been this low sincethe beginning of the month,
right?
Yeah, but if you're involved inthis, this is very painful
because anyone who's boughtcattle recently now is already
upside down, correct?
Now, this is feeder cattle, Jim.
This is November feeder cattle.
(17:17):
What people probably can't seehere is the January, March,
April, May, August, all the backmonth feeder cattles all the way
across, and all the live cattleswere limit down in that and
we're bigger limits than we usedto be.
It's not like the old days wherewe're down a couple dollars,
we're down big dollars a month.
Yeah, yeah.
Then we'll have expanded limitson Monday.
(17:38):
So, folks, if you're out thereor if you're worried, I did put
my number at the bottom.
It's easy to get a hold of us.
And uh, of course, you can go tothe website, there's a contact
us page.
Real quick, we're about halfwaythrough the lightning round.
If you're enjoying this content,Mr.
Weissmeyer allows us to have theshow for free.
It's it's the best show outthere.
But if you're enjoying thiscontent, we have premium
content.
(17:59):
If you notice, I didn't put outa lot of content this week.
I actually put it out, but itwas pay for content.
www.agbull.com.
Right there, you can clickmonthly or yearly.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer is so generous andloves the egg community so much,
he decided the Weissmeier showis going to be free.
Now, with that, here's where weget into the real serious stuff.
(18:20):
We had to take a littlecommercial break because now we
get real serious.
And I'm really interested whatyou have to say about this.
SPEAKER_01 (18:28):
Well, Trump says he's going to meet with Xi
Jinping, China's leader, nextThursday in South Korea.
China has still not officiallyconfirmed that the meeting is
going to take place.
I think it will, but I I, youknow, I want to hear China say
they're going to meet.
Now, when the two, if if andwhen the two meet, they both are
(18:50):
coming at this meeting with fardifferent expectations.
Trump loves deliverables.
And so the Wall Street Journalhad a story that I commented on
today in my updates, in which Iheadlined it uh G thinks he's
got Trump's number.
They have read the art of thedeal, they know Trump's
(19:12):
emotionality, they know that toget concessions, they gotta pat
him on the back, say he's good,the relationship is good, and
give him some things that hewants.
And those things are, includesome purchases, Chinese
purchases of U.S.
soybeans and sorghum.
They added sorghum this week,which I think is a good, thank
(19:34):
goodness, because the Milopeople really need it.
So we're gonna see if they meet.
I think you're gonna see some ofthese deliverables, and then
we'll have to see if they issuea statement.
That's another thing that I'velearned to look out for.
If they issue a statement, bothcountries issue a statement
after they meet, that's a goodsign.
(19:55):
But if they don't, then well, itthey just agreed to meet and
maybe a few things.
But what does China want?
China's gonna want somethingbecause frankly, Xi Jinping
thinks that China's above theUnited States now.
They think that their economy isgonna be better over the long
haul.
He thinks 10, 20, 30 yearsahead.
(20:17):
That's uh Gi on the right side.
Yeah, yeah.
And so he's coming in thismeeting with a little more
bravado.
He's got the uh preciousminerals, things that he thinks
he's got the US caught, but Idon't think that's true because
we import almost 300 billiondollars more from China.
(20:40):
We have a deficit, they need us.
SPEAKER_02 (20:43):
They need us.
SPEAKER_01 (20:44):
So if Trump really were to pull out big time,
China's economy was tilt south,just like that fear cattle chart
that you showed, by the way.
SPEAKER_00 (20:54):
And and full disclosure, we've had a nice
little healthy, healthy rally insoybeans while the government's
closed, and while we don't haveallegedly China buying, but we
wouldn't know if they werebuying, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (21:04):
Yeah, because the daily export sales report is not
being announced because USDA isclosed.
Yeah, uh yeah, we've had apretty good rally here.
In fact, you're you're above onsoybean prices where you were a
year ago.
I checked on that the other day.
SPEAKER_00 (21:19):
Very much so, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (21:19):
Yeah, so and corn too, same thing.
SPEAKER_00 (21:22):
Technically, we're breaking out too.
I do a video with uh KerryArtec, and he had a level in
soybeans.
We broke out.
I I'm gonna post a picture.
Tell me what you think of this.
SPEAKER_01 (21:32):
I hold the cards, the cards are made in China.
That's the there's more truth tothat, you'd think.
Now back to the cards.
Oh, thank goodness.
Yeah, now I gotta look at allthe decks of cards I have to see
where they're listening this isfancy stuff.
SPEAKER_00 (21:46):
I don't even know what this next headline means.
I just put it in there.
SPEAKER_01 (21:49):
Well, this is interesting because of the
timing.
The U.S.
Trade Representative's officetoday, maybe about an hour or so
ago, announced a Section 301investigation of China's uh
fulfillment or lack offulfillment of the phase one
agreement.
Remember that one under thefirst Trump administration?
The timing of that was not amistake.
(22:10):
That's to give that's to giveanother card, if you will.
There's your card angle there.
That's to give another card toTrump, to Xi Jinping saying,
hey, where's accountability?
At least the U.S.
follows through on commitments.
You didn't.
And just because you think Bidenwas weak didn't doesn't mean
that you shouldn't havefulfilled the terms that you
(22:32):
signed.
And I've got pictures of yourpeople signing it.
SPEAKER_00 (22:35):
And we're talking about these right here,
soybeans.
SPEAKER_01 (22:37):
This is big time soybeans and other primarily
soybeans, yeah.
They were uh short of the oftheir commitment, they just
dropped it.
Now they can say that it wasCOVID and other things, but no,
they didn't fulfill the terms.
That's why you have a 301investigation.
And this is a little moreleverage that Trump can have.
(22:57):
So I think it was a smart moveon the part of the you know, you
know, Trump administration togive him another quiver in his
arsenal.
Trump trade talks with Canadaoff, but the their prime
minister said today he wants touh resume those negotiations.
This is internal Canadianpolitics because the Premier of
(23:20):
Ontario a few weeks ago edited,and it was, I think, a bad edit,
prior Reagan comments ontariffs, saying that they really
don't work, etc.
Even though in Japan Reaganselectively used tariffs.
But you have to know Trump.
He doesn't like that.
But what people also don't knowis Trump gets a little jealous
(23:43):
of former president RonaldReagan because of the love
Reagan has within the RepublicanParty.
So he thinks that Reagan was toomoderate.
And when when he saw what Canadawas doing, he thought, stop all
talks.
I don't think that's gonna last.
I think we they we he willresume talks after probably
(24:07):
getting a call from Canada'sprime minister.
We won't hear it, but uh hewould say, Mr.
President, it's uh our Ontariopremier.
He got out of sorts, heshouldn't have done it.
Let's talk, and I think thatthey will.
So I think this is mainly acouple day story and that
they'll go back to talks.
SPEAKER_00 (24:28):
Trump deal with Japan.
SPEAKER_01 (24:30):
Yeah, you know, Trump's gonna meet.
He's not only gonna want to meetwith Xi Jinping, if Xi Jinping
will say yes, he's gonna bemeeting with Japan, in which
Japan, who has a new primeminister, they're gonna fulfill
the terms of that U.S.
Japanese agreement.
And I think they're gonnaannounce even additional imports
of U.S.
commodities above theirtraditional purchases, and I'm
(24:52):
not talking just rice, so thiscould be a good thing in the in
in the next few days, Tommy, onJapan.
That's a good thing.
We got positive news.
SPEAKER_00 (25:03):
We don't bring up Japan a lot.
SPEAKER_01 (25:05):
No, no, but they're they're a good ally and they're
a really good customer of U.S.
commodities.
So that's a good thing.
That's a good thing.
SPEAKER_00 (25:13):
All right, let's see what we have after Japan here.
So much coming out.
SPEAKER_01 (25:18):
Yeah, Brazil, Lula is the leader of Brazil, and he
wants to meet maybe I think thisweekend.
Now, Trump's leaving at 10:40p.m.
tonight, Eastern time.
Now, Trump runs late likeClinton did all the time, so I
don't know whether he'llactually leave at that time.
But when he goes overinternationally, Lula is already
(25:39):
there and he wants to talk atrade agreement.
Yes.
Now that could be importantbecause if you recall, we added
10% tariffs on Brazil beforeTrump increased it by 40% to 50%
tariffs.
Well, that decimated theirhamburger shipments to the
United States.
And they can ship far morehamburger to the United States
(26:01):
than Argentina can, and it'sbetter quality, by the way.
So I'm not I'm not predictingthat, but I'm telling you that
this Brazil-Argentina mix, I'mnot going to rule out a trade
agreement between the twocountries that could include uh
lower coffee tariffs uh to lowerthe price of coffee and that uh
(26:22):
beef, especially hamburger.
SPEAKER_00 (26:24):
And he references this, Jim, in this in this truce
social.
He says the only reason cattlepeople are doing well is because
my 50% tariff in Brazil, it'sright there in the middle of the
meat of that.
Now, it's complete BS becausethe cattle market's been
rallying since COVID of 20, butthat's for a different day.
SPEAKER_01 (26:42):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Under Trump 101 rules, you know,it's just what it just didn't
make sense.
Didn't make sense.
And and it puts Brooke Rollinsin a spot, as I said before.
It's just incorrect, but that'sTrump.
He just doesn't understand thecattle market, he doesn't
understand that it takes two tothree years.
(27:03):
It's called the cattle cycle.
He doesn't understand just tolet the market work.
He thinks it could be like theegg situation, in which they
they they did reach the top ofthe egg market when they
announced their five-point plan.
SPEAKER_00 (27:17):
There's there, there it's there's Trump eating beef.
He had his own beef company fora while, his own Trump stakes,
yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (27:22):
And I said before, he usually puts ketchup on
steak, by the way.
A lot of people don't know that.
SPEAKER_00 (27:27):
Oh boy, that's two strikes against him.
All right, we got we got this.
This one's interesting.
API pull support for year-roundE15 needs reform.
That's gotta hurt.
SPEAKER_01 (27:37):
That just just at the time where you think there
was momentum again foryear-round E-15 in Congress or
the White House, AmericanPetroleum Institute comes out
the middle of the week saying,Well, we've withdrawn our
support at this time because wewant to see reforms in the
ethanol and in the biofuels uharena.
(27:58):
They didn't detail, but I'vebeen told they want some changes
on the small refineryexemptions.
In other words, a little givecorn growers won't like.
They want a little give on theuh the what do I want to say?
SPEAKER_00 (28:13):
You'll think of it.
SPEAKER_01 (28:14):
45Z, 45Z program.
They want uh lower rin prices,etc.
So uh I always was suspect whenAPI initially came out in
support of year-round D-15.
Now I know they didn't havefollow-through.
So that's just it's anotherhurdle ahead for the year-round
D-15 to be determined later.
(28:37):
Oh, and this is coming nextweek, I think Tuesday, the
Senate Judiciary Committee isgonna have a hearing on seed and
fertilizer.
You'll recall that the Rollinsannounced that in a memorandum,
the Department of Justice andUSDA was investing will
investigate fertilizer and seedcompanies.
(28:59):
And so now Congress is gonnapick up on that.
They're gonna hold a hearing.
Now, I think you put it on yoursite, Tommy, but I did a major
fertilizer report this week.
A look at the past, a futurecurrent and the history of the
U.S.
fertilizer and world fertilizermarkets.
So I would I would encourage uhlisteners and and and viewers to
(29:24):
look at that report because Ispent some time on that to show
how the US regulations in the70s and 80s almost drove the
U.S.
fertilizer production out ofthis great country.
And that's why.
And we have 90% of the potashcomes from Canada.
And and look how we're treatingCanada.
(29:44):
So there are reasons whyfertilizer prices are are high.
And that that report showsabsolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (29:50):
If you'd like to reference that, Jim's talking
about that, it's on the EGBOwebsite now.
And that that report was calledspecifically Jim so they could
search for it.
SPEAKER_01 (29:57):
I don't know now anymore.
SPEAKER_00 (30:00):
Well you put out seven yesterday.
Hey, read them all.
SPEAKER_01 (30:03):
They were all fertilizer in the headline.
Fertilizer is in the headline.
But it tells you also how Chinawent from an importer to a major
exporter of fertilizer.
So that's called a mega change,by the way.
SPEAKER_00 (30:17):
A mega change.
SPEAKER_01 (30:19):
A mega change, yeah.
And so it's it's it's a goodreport.
I want to do another one onseed, but I'm gonna do have to
work this weekend to get itdone.
So we'll see.
SPEAKER_00 (30:29):
All right.
This sounds like a song,wrecking ball.
SPEAKER_01 (30:34):
It was just like Miley Cyrus wrecking ball,
because it's down the east wingof the White House.
Not the actual, it's theattachment to the White House.
He didn't, he didn't put theball to the White House,
although it's got Democrats alljust aflutter.
I mean, they just, oh mygoodness.
But history clearly shows, Imean, that the White House has
(30:58):
changed over the decades.
Your Truman balcony on the onthe on the back end of the White
House.
That was done in the Trumanadministration.
Yeah, there's the when they werestarting to put the wrecking
ball.
That's on the TreasuryDepartment side of the White
House for those people who knowWashington.
And it was really where they hadthe White House theater and
(31:22):
things like that.
But Trump wants a 90,000 squarefoot, looks like 300 million or
350 million dollar ballroom, notpaid by taxpayers.
He'll help pay and someindependent some private private
people are gonna pay.
But speaking of that, theDemocrats are already saying
that's pay-to-play, you know,things like that.
SPEAKER_00 (31:43):
Sure, sure, sure, sure.
Who's paying the U.S.
military?
SPEAKER_01 (31:47):
Nobody right now.
And they the Democrats rejectedseveral attempts to do that.
So that's not a good sign.
And these the the pressurepoints on having the government
uh stay out are are increasing.
You're seeing it with morecancellations of airline flights
or delays in flights, and I'mgoing to be traveling pretty
(32:10):
soon, so they'll get my ire.
And you've got the food stamp,uh, the snap uh program.
A number of states have whittleddown their reserves.
And so now we're hitting thepressure points, which again, I
think we probably got a week to10 days before both sides say,
hey, let's get together and dosomething.
(32:32):
Will it be time, by the way,Tommy, to do the November crop
report?
That's a big question.
I don't know.
But if you go into the first fewdays of November, I think that
they won't have a November cropproduction report, but we're
gonna see.
And I think it could be veryclose.
SPEAKER_00 (32:47):
Okay.
What I was referencing, Jim, wasI thought Trump said some
anonymous donor gave 150 milliondollars to get they could.
SPEAKER_01 (32:55):
I didn't know that, but I didn't doubt it.
SPEAKER_00 (32:57):
I mean, there's kept coming out.
Oh, well, we got the troops paidbecause this anonymous donor
talk about pay to play or beingin the good.
SPEAKER_01 (33:03):
Oh, the troops, you mean the troops?
Yeah, oh well, I think he'llhe'll bend over backwards,
they'll find the money.
There are so many billions.
Yeah, there's so many billionsof dollars floating around.
The government, the government.
I mean, look how they came upwith three billion dollars to to
bring back the farm serviceagency.
I mean, it's it's there.
SPEAKER_00 (33:25):
Let's skip over billions.
That's boring.
Let's talk about trillions.
Stock market hit all-time highsjust a little bit ago.
SPEAKER_01 (33:33):
My 401k is 501k, Tommy.
I'm happy.
I'm happy papy on that one now.
Let's just hope it continues.
But we're getting in into frothyareas, but this thing could uh
run for a while because of uhless than expected inflation.
Your US economy is pretty goodshape.
(33:54):
You you could have a three and ahalf to four percent gross
domestic product in the nextquarter or two.
You've got next year those onebig beautiful bill, tax pluses,
uh, investment, equipmentdepreciation, et cetera, coming
into play.
And if we ever could get thistrade policy stabilized, then uh
(34:17):
companies could plan.
Right now, they don't want toget too aggressive in hiring new
people, putting out newproducts, et cetera.
But all that could change if wehad any stability in some of the
things that we're talking aboutright now, Tommy.
So I'm still upbeat on the U.S.
economy.
I think I the the labor, youknow, situation is a little bad.
(34:41):
The unemployment keeps goinghigher, but that's why you're
gonna have lower interest rates.
Even our Fed chairman realizesthat now.
SPEAKER_00 (34:48):
Absolutely.
And I think I forgot toreference this chart, so now
it'd be a good time.
Uh the stock market believes inwhat Trump's doing, but maybe
not what Congress is doing.
Is that correct?
SPEAKER_01 (34:57):
Look at the look at the yeah, look at the the the
historical low for Congress.
Look at look at that number.
That's even low for Congress.
And you know, if you took outthe the husbands and wives of
lawmakers, their parents, theirgrandparents, and others, it
(35:17):
would be single digits.
It would be single digits, butthat shouldn't surprise people
because what Congress isdysfunctional.
And and I'll say it again, weshould never have a shutdown of
the government if the lawmakersfrom both political parties
would just do their job.
And that's just not theappropriators, it's the leaders
(35:39):
of both the Republican andDemocratic parties who won't
give the appropriators.
The appropriators are the oneswho sp who actually determine
where the spending goes, butthey have to get a top-level
number first from thecongressional leadership, and
they take forever to get thatnumber, and that's why you back
up, it's like backing up cattle.
(35:59):
It just it you just you you youjust it it takes so long in the
fiscal year to get that number.
So I point the finger for thisshutdown at both political
parties, but Congress, both theappropriators and the
congressional leadership at thehighest level.
And when I ask them why do youdo that?
(36:20):
Both sides tell me, leverage.
This gives them leverage to getwhat they want.
Is that any way to run agovernment?
It's not, it's not.
We gotta we gotta get throughthis.
SPEAKER_00 (36:32):
One last picture, and then we'll just talk a
little bit.
What's the deal with this?
SPEAKER_01 (36:37):
Oh, yeah, that 38 trillion dollars.
Look at how fast we've gone overthe last two trillion dollars,
fastest in ever.
That tells you this thing'sgotta stop.
I mean, it's gotta temperbecause the bond market, if they
think Washington has lostcontrol, you'll have real
interest rates go higher fasterthan anyone realizes.
(37:00):
And some people say, oh, thedebt doesn't matter.
Well, it does matter.
$38 trillion when when you don'thave a way to deal with it.
So watch that for the future inthe bond market.
SPEAKER_00 (37:11):
All right, we're getting to the last one, U.S.
sanctions.
President Columbia.
This just came out a few minutesago.
Thoughts on this?
SPEAKER_01 (37:17):
Yeah, the president and his top people are getting
serious about the drug cartelsin Venezuela and Colombia.
You've seen the killings on theships and things like that.
And now we just sent some prettybig military hardware over to
Latin America.
This doesn't look good for thething, and he's flexing the
American muscle on that.
(37:38):
And that's the president ofColombia who Trump had more than
a few negative words uh about.
He he's getting serious aboutthe drug issue because he says
Trump says every time that uhthat a boat is hit, that saves
25,000 American lives.
SPEAKER_00 (38:02):
And I told Gina I was gonna lay down and she said,
Why aren't you laying down?
I said, Gina, he, this guy's notgonna be president forever.
And the energy and his abilityto answer a question.
I know people, I hey, if you'reout there and you want to
comment on this video, drop acomment.
But if you didn't watch this, goback and watch it.
Yeah, each one of his importantstaff that was involved in this,
(38:24):
he gave him time to talk, hedidn't talk over them, and then
he answered questions.
I don't know if there's a personin the room who didn't get to
ask questions.
Did you see that lady fromFrance try to answer a question,
but he couldn't understand her?
SPEAKER_01 (38:36):
Yeah, he he is the most energetic president I've
ever covered, and he does.
He is quick with the facts.
He they tell me that he readsvociferously.
And here's a little nugget forfor the listeners and viewers.
I've changed the way I have tocover both USDA and the White
(38:59):
House.
Now I I look at first XX, theold Twitter, I look at Truth
Social, that's that's Trump's uhuh you know social media, then
Fox News, Fox Business News, andCNBC.
Why is that?
Because Trump likes to be onthose programs, and his cabinet
(39:21):
knows that.
So uh in the case of BrookeRollins, she doesn't give many
ag related pressers anymore.
She goes right on Fox News orFox Business or CNBC because
they know President Trump iswatching.
So that's a way for them to seeuh for Trump to see what they
(39:43):
are doing.
So that's why I've got to mannedall those programs now where I
really didn't have to all thatmuch before.
Now it's must must view TV.
SPEAKER_00 (39:52):
Well, Mr.
Weismeyer, we've come to the endof the show.
I hate to say goodbye, but uhI'm sure you'll be putting out a
release real quick, folks.
Thank you for watching.
If you'd like to get a hold ofJim, his email's right there,
weismeyer at gmail.
If you'd like to see Jim's stuffcome out, he'll email it
directly to you.
Or you can go to the Agblewebsite.
We have it posted up there now.
(40:13):
If you really, really enjoy whatwe're putting out.
Of course, we have our premiumcontent, and uh, we'd love to
see you move over to the premiumside.
Mr.
Weissmeyer is gonna take ushome.
He's gonna leave us.
You're not done yet.
You're gonna leave us withsomething optimistic and why he
loves America.
Mr.
Jim Weissmeyer, Wiesmeyer'sperspectives.
SPEAKER_01 (40:32):
Watch some of the weekend developments and next
week.
I think we'll get some positivenews on the ag front, both from
the trade policy and economic uharena.
And that's good news.
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