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November 28, 2025 45 mins

www.agbull.com

Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.

• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
• USDA aid timing, scope, and funding risks
• Cotton and sorghum outlook with margin stress
• Deere guidance and machinery bottom watch
• India and Canada trade snags
• Food security reporting pause and SNAP recertification talk
• Supreme Court tariff case scenarios
• RFS, RINs, 45Z delays, and year-round E15
• Farm Bill 2.0 vote math and timelines
• Cattle border reopening, packer capacity, and price recovery
• Why Congress must codify to reduce court whiplash

All that for $25 a month. We’re up watching the markets 24 hours a day, so you don’t have to.


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Thank you, Tommy G


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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:19):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gersafi, Eggbow Media,Eggbull Trading.
You're listening to the EggbowPodcast.
I hope you had a wonderfulThanksgiving.
We have a lot of news, and itwas a strange day.
Some interesting stuff happened.
I'll add a little color to it,but the CME group shut down for
eight hours overnight.
And you know what?
When you are the border trade,the CME, the Comex, and the

(00:40):
NyMex, and you are where priceis discovered, it's a little
chaos.
But speaking of chaos, we gotsomeone to calm us down.
Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer, he is hopefullydidn't eat too much turkey and
he has some energy left.
Let's give this man a littleintroduction and we'll bring him
on the show.

SPEAKER_01 (01:29):
Well, we've got uh a Baker's dozen of uh topics to
try to clear up a lot ofconfusion on a number of topics.
So we're gonna get right to it,okay?

SPEAKER_00 (01:40):
Yes, sir.
Well, the Fed cut rates, Mr.
Jim.

SPEAKER_01 (01:43):
Yes, 80% odds that's what the market is saying.
So if we don't get a cutDecember the 10th, which is the
Federal Open Market Committee, FO M C, uh the equities market is
gonna go down a lot.
So the equities is close areclosely following the uh
interest rate issue.

(02:04):
But I think the Fed would havecome out with disqualifying
statements recently had themarket been so far off.
So, yes, I expect an interestrate cut of only 25 basis
points.
And sometime in December, weshould get President Trump's
recommendation for the new Fedchairman.

(02:25):
The inside track is saying themarket's saying Kevin Hassett,
that's the national economicconsult, you know, director.
But I've learned onappointments, Tommy, they can
change very fast.
But we're gonna get theannouncement sometime in the
month of December.

SPEAKER_00 (02:42):
So Jay Powell's out, he will hit the unemployment
number, but I'll tell you, don'tworry.
I'm sure he'll make a smallfortune in consulting as a Wall
Street firm picks him up, right?

SPEAKER_01 (02:54):
Absolutely.
He can stay as long as May nextyear because he's a board
governor.
So it'll be curious whether ornot he stays.
I think most Fed chair peoplewould probably leave after a new
person comes in, but we'll see.

SPEAKER_00 (03:11):
Yeah, it couldn't be a week if we didn't talk about
these two US China trade dealand soybeans.

SPEAKER_01 (03:15):
Well, we had another soybean sale, you know, daily
sale from USDA this morning.
I think we're over 2 milliontons now.
You'll recall that TreasurySecretary Scott Bessant had been
saying around Thanksgiving, andwe're right, around
Thanksgiving, that we'll get asigned agreement between

(03:36):
President Trump and Xi Jinping,China's leader.
We didn't get that yet.
Why is a signed agreement soimportant, Tommy?
That'll show China confirmingsome of these tonnage levels of
soybeans that keep beingmentioned.
12 million tons of purchases,not for delivery yet this year,

(03:58):
but purchases during Novemberand December.
As I said, we're a little over 2million tons now, and 25 million
tons annually for 26, 27, and28.
An agreement would also tell usif China has an escape clause
that says they will purchaseU.S.
commodities if pricecompetitive.

(04:19):
Well, we know that we're over adollar more expensive than
Brazilian soybeans, so that'stheir escape valve if they put
it in writing.
And also why an agreement Ithink is needed is enforcement
language.
If China doesn't fulfill, whatare the enforcement mechanisms
that U.S.
has is being is telling Chinathat they could face?

(04:43):
All that is embodied in there,but we'll see whether or not we
get a signed agreement.

SPEAKER_00 (04:48):
U.S.
Farmer Aid Package promiseddelayed and now unclear.

SPEAKER_01 (04:53):
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said earlier this
week that it will come nextweek, okay, and it will be
delivered in early January.
Now that gives me a littlesignal there.
Number one, we'll we'll need toknow what concept did they use
on this coming farmer aidpackage.

(05:15):
Is it going to be limited to atrade mitigation program,
especially China?
Or will it be more general?
But if it's just China or trade,the total funding level may
surprise people on how low itwill go.
I've seen estimates on onReuters as high as$15 billion.

(05:37):
And if it's just trade-oriented,it could be under$10 billion.
So she's going to have to fillin the uh blanks on that one.
And as far as farmers gettingthe aid, by no means is it a
bailout.
It'll be far below the needs inthe farming our farming
community.

SPEAKER_00 (05:54):
That's about$40 billion, by the way.
Yeah, that's what I was justgoing to ask you.

SPEAKER_01 (05:59):
It's it's it's this is seen as a partial bridge into
2026.
And it'll be curious too,whenever where uh Brooke Rollins
announces this, whether or notshe has some lawmakers behind
her.
If she has GT Thompson, theHouse AG Committee Chairman, and

(06:20):
John Bozeman, the Senate AGCommittee Chairman, with her,
maybe they'll talk about thenext step on farmer aid, which
would be a possiblecongressional farmer aid
package, similar to the one wehad December 21st in 2024.
That totaled$10 billion, by theway.
So, bottom line, quoting BrookeRollins, it's coming next week.

(06:43):
We'll have to see the fundinglevel.
She's already saying paymentsare going to be made in early
January, which tells me it won'tbe too complex of a program to
operate.
And then we're going to have tosee if Congress is going to
deliver on a on a more generalfarmer aid package late this
year.

SPEAKER_00 (07:03):
And that brings my question.
Our sugar beet growers, the allthe things we talk about that
grow in California that wereaffected, whether it be you talk
about them all the time, mycotton.
Have you seen the cottonfutures?
Woof.
That's no good.
You know, who's going to helpthese people?

SPEAKER_01 (07:19):
Cotton.
Really, cotton is.
I think of all the commoditiesthat I talk about in my
speeches, and go, and I go downto the south a lot, cotton is
hurting the most.
When China was a market for U.S.
cotton, you had cotton prices inthe 90 cent area, Tommy.

(07:40):
Now we're in what the 60, 60cents.

SPEAKER_00 (07:42):
Yeah, most 60s.
That's the futures price.
I imagine typically the cashprice is lower.

SPEAKER_01 (07:47):
It it it really, really hurts.
And so the outlook is just it'ssomber.
So I'm gonna have to take aconcerted look at that cotton
industry to see the elements ofpositives in the years ahead.
Sorghum is another commoditythat really went down relative
to uh China.

(08:07):
Now we've had a small purchaserecently, and I think the the
China will purchase more sorghumor Milo because they like it in
their liquor there.
So maybe sorghum has an updraftuh uh you know coming.
And soybeans, we've seen a priceuh appreciation, but the vast
majority of the soybean tradersand analysts think that China

(08:30):
won't fulfill those tonnageterms that we talked about, but
we'll see.

SPEAKER_00 (08:34):
Yeah, and that leads us into our next uh great segue.
If farmers aren't making money,these people are probably
struggling.

SPEAKER_01 (08:41):
Yeah, John Deere came out Wednesday with their
out uh outlook, and even thoughthey topped their fourth quarter
forecast, it was their it wastheir look ahead to 2026, Tommy,
uh that got people nervous.
Look at the left-hand side onthe far left, large ag equipment
down 15 to 20 percent.

(09:04):
That's what's hurting John Deereright now because farmers, in a
word, they can't afford them, sothey're not purchasing them.
Now, Deere in their earningscall, and I listened to to every
every word of it, and I I wrotea story about it on uh Wednesday
afternoon, yeah.
And they're they're they'resaying that 2026 will be the

(09:28):
bottom.
Let's hope, let's hope, andimportantly, they didn't have
farmer aid built into theirforecast.
Oh yeah, so I think that's animportant from an investing
perspective because we knowfarmers are going to get some
additional aid for sure from theadministration and possibly more

(09:50):
more than likely from Congress.
So that could mean you know thatwe we could see the bottom.
But what's the top side?
Because uh it looks like the agsector is getting used to these
uh big increases in in aid,Tommy.
But at least in the fall of nextyear, these higher reference

(10:11):
prices for farmers in the farmprograms are gonna kick in.
But that's why we need thebridge aid between now and 2026
plantings and before thosehigher farm program payments
kick in in the fall of 2026.
If we if if we continue to haverelatively low prices, that's

(10:34):
your bottom line.

SPEAKER_00 (10:35):
Yeah, and folks, if you missed that story, it's
gonna be at the top of the AgBOwebsite here in the next few
minutes.
Uh we'll get that posted.
Agbo Intel, click on Weismeyer'sPerspectives for all his latest
content.
As fast as Jim releases that,you can get it.
Of course, if you'd like to signup for Jim's personal
newsletter, his email isscrolling across the bottom.
Weismeyer at gmail.com.

(10:57):
Back to the show, my friend.
Yes.
All right.
So we went through uh Deer, andnow let's talk about this.
Is interesting.
Any day now, trade deal withIndia and Canada.

SPEAKER_01 (11:08):
We've heard that for about a year from both from
various administrative fromPresident Trump to Treasury
Secretary Besson to US TradeRepresentative Jamison Greer,
and we just don't get it.
Now, eventually, I think we willget a phased-in trade deal, but
I also mentioned Canada in ourheadline here because talk with

(11:32):
Canada.
They're having the same problemwith India that you get so
close, but then it comes up withcertain snags in the case of
dairy exports to India, and inthe case of the US, we also
include digital aid.
India just drags their feet, butTrump really wants them as a

(11:53):
buffer to uh China.
So I think eventually we'll getone, but it's been a long wait,
Tommy.
Mm-hmm.
Several months ago on foodsecurity report, USDA pulled the
annual report.
And you know, Democratic FarmState Lawmakers just railed,
saying, Oh, this is not the timeto cut out that report.

(12:18):
So, but at the time I remembertalking to USDA officials, and
they said, look, don't worry,we're gonna come up with a new
approach for the food securityreport.
Well, that's been several monthsago.
And at the time they told methey were negotiating with the
data firm, and they couldn't putout the information until they

(12:38):
had a signed contract.
I still don't have an update onthat.
They say it's coming, but wereally need to know uh the the
parameters of the food foodsecurity because that helps in
food aid, not uh in the in theUS.
And and I think it it it is itis needed information.
USDA keeps telling me it'scoming.

SPEAKER_00 (13:01):
Speaking of USDA, snap.

SPEAKER_01 (13:04):
Are we gonna get the reform?
Brooke Rollins, USDA secretary,keeps saying that she needs more
information from the states.
She's got it from the red statesin most particular as to far as
the information they need toreally assess overpayments.
I mean, some some uh recipients,not all, but some recipients of

(13:26):
SNAP get it get paid three tofour to five times.
Now, that shouldn't happen.
So in a program that suppliesmostly needed food for up to 42
million people, you're gonnahave a lot of problems in there.
That's just fact.
And she says there's more fraudand abuse than people realize.

(13:50):
And she said recently she'sgonna have everyone recertify in
in order to check thequalifications.
Well, again, that that got theSNAP proponents just all up in
the air because I don't knowwhether they know internally
that there's a lot of uh youknow misuse of that program.
Or they're saying that it wouldput a lot of uh you know uh busy

(14:14):
work, if you will, on those uhoffices.
But when Brooks says somethinglike that, I think she's got the
um command and control behindher to follow through on that.
Bottom line, there is a lot offraud and abuse in the food
stamp program, and they needdata in order to prove it and to

(14:34):
change it.
Now, this also ties into anothersubject we're gonna have later
on.
So we'll we'll we'll we'll bringSnap back up relative to the
Farm Bill 2.0 discussion.

SPEAKER_00 (14:45):
Yeah, and let me ask you a question.
People probably think I'mjoking, but do you think they'll
go to cemeteries and get thosepeople re-registered who are
getting it who already passedaway, or how would one go about
that?

SPEAKER_01 (14:55):
That's part of the abuse that there's more than a
few dead people who continue toget uh those uh yeah electronic
uh you know uh electronicpayments.
And the stamp program, I I thinkmore than any other program has
the most airs in it.

(15:16):
Conversely, crop insurance hasone of the best, lowest amount
of problems.
And I think that's that'sbecause of the very close
relationship the government hasin working with the private crop
insurance industry.
It's one of the best programsthat I've ever seen in my

(15:36):
50-year career.

SPEAKER_00 (15:38):
Absolutely.
Let's take a little break forstation identification.
You're listening to the Eggbowlpodcast.
My name's Tommy Grossaffee, theone and only Jim Wiesmeyer's on.
Jim Wiesmeyer, we take hisarticles, we post them uh as
fast as they come out.
And the trust me, I don't knowwhen the man sleeps, but
additional shows are now premiumcontent.
If you'd like premium content,www.agbull.com, putting out

(15:59):
videos, text alerts, all typesof breaking news.
We're up watching the markets 24hours a day, so you don't have
to.
All that for$25 a month.
Back to the show, Mr.
Weissmeyer.

SPEAKER_01 (16:10):
And I wanted to say, Tommy, Tuesday this coming week,
I'm going to be in Auburn,Nebraska for Ruth Gertis's crop
insurance company.
Oh, yeah, sponsored by FarmersUh Mutual, I believe.
And so if you're in that area,and if you're a client of uh my
longtime friend in the cropinsurance industry, Ruth Gertis,

(16:30):
come to her event.

SPEAKER_00 (16:32):
Oh, absolutely.
Ruth and uh her husband, Myron,uh friends, and she's a legend
in the crop insurance industry.

SPEAKER_01 (16:38):
She is very much so.
I she really taught me andmentored me as much as she could
in my fledgling days.
Now that goes back a ways, huh?

SPEAKER_00 (16:48):
Yeah, but you know, we need age and wisdom to uh
guide people of uh all agesthrough this uh turbulent time.
We need that steady hand to justsay, you know what, we got this,
here's what we're gonna do, andkeep moving forward.

SPEAKER_01 (16:59):
Speaking of Ruth is doing it to her firm, she she
had her girls as she calls them.
She's a believer in inmentoring, and she has and the
people coming up in herorganization will carry on uh
you know the baton because Ruthtaught them.

SPEAKER_00 (17:19):
Yeah, absolutely.
I'll be uh on the uh Iowa,Illinois border speaking for uh
one of the great cornseedcompanies here in the Midwest.
I'll have that data out to uhclients and friends.
But uh Wiffles Hybrids justWiffle.

SPEAKER_01 (17:34):
Yes, yeah, Illinois too.

SPEAKER_00 (17:36):
Yeah, Illinois, and they're expanding all over the
country.
But Wiffles Hybrids just a justthey do one thing and they kick
ass doing it, and they makecornseed and absolute privilege
to outlook there.
Yeah, very good.
And several of the uh employeesare friends and clients, so
absolute privilege to get outthere and give people good news.
I actually have some good newsfor the people, so and uh I bet

(17:57):
you they watch this show.
So let's see here.
This one, I always have to askyou, what are we fighting for in
this one?

SPEAKER_01 (18:04):
Oh, Affordable Care Act.
Let's make it affordable, butlet's make it prudent.
And it's neither of the tworight now.
The the issue is that, and thiswas the number one issue of why
we had a 43-day governmentshutdown, because the Democrats
tried to use the shutdown inorder to get the Republicans and
President Trump to agree toextend the enhanced Affordable

(18:29):
Care Act or Obamacare creditsthat came about during the COVID
years, Tommy.
Well, they end at the end ofDecember this year.
And if they're not extended inone way or the other, there's
going to be a pretty goodincrease, not a pretty good,
pretty bad increase in for thearound 20 million people I think

(18:51):
get ACA and Obama care.
Now, where we're at right now isthat uh President Trump again
said uh today, I think he said,you know, people are quoting him
saying that he's working a dealwith the Democrats to extend uh
the enhanced credits for twoyears.
He said, no, no, uh, I don'twant that.
I want to I want to work, maybewe may have a one-year, a

(19:13):
partial increase, but he wantsreform.
And so do the Republicans inCongress.
They'll put a means test on itand they'll put other reforms.
And if they can come up with thewith the middle of the road, I

(19:53):
think there's your solution tothis very thorny issue that was,
again, the number one issue inthe government shutdown.
So we're gonna see.
I think within the next fewweeks we should have some type
of an agreement announced.

SPEAKER_00 (20:08):
Supreme Court tariff case, a ruling that could
reshape U.S.
trade policy.

SPEAKER_01 (20:12):
Yes, it would, big time, because either sometime in
December or early in 2026, theSupreme Court, SCOTUS as we call
it, Supreme Court of the UnitedStates, will issue a ruling on
the constitutionality ofPresident Trump's use of
tariffs.
Now, depending on who you ask,and I've said over the last few

(20:34):
weeks, I've talked to too manytrade lawyers, and I'm tired of
it.
They're split.
Most of them think that Trumpwill lose this case, not all.
And the administration is stillconfident that the Supreme Court
uh will rule in their favor, butlet's assume they do not.
What's going to happen?

(20:55):
There's big question marks onthat, because you have to read
the Supreme Court rulings.
If they rule against Trump, theycould say from this date
forward, that means the all thetariff billions of dollars in
tariffs heretofore, we just have32 billion in the month of
October alone, Tommy, fortariffs.

(21:16):
They can stay as is, or theycould say you have to repay
those.
And that opens up, oh mygoodness, there'd be a lot of
complexity.
On the other hand, if he ifTrump loses the case, where does
his trade policy stand?
Well, the administration hasbeen hard at work looking at
their other tools that theyhave, and they have many, but

(21:38):
they'll be more cumbersome.
I think this is part of thereason why you've had some
recent uh scaling back of uhtariffs.
Uh we saw, what was it, lastweek with Brazil that that he
withdrew those 40% additionaltariffs on Brazilian uh beef, uh
hamburger, if you will, andcoffee, and uh not all coffee,

(22:02):
but not instant coffee, butcoffee.
And so I think he's trying toget back as much as he can to
his initial concept, Tommy,which was reciprocal.
We're gonna treat you as youtreat us.
And Americans understood thatand they vastly supported that.
It's when they got into highertariffs beyond reciprocity, is I

(22:25):
think where it got into thecomplexity of whether or not he
should have gone that far.
So, bottom line on this one aruling's coming.
Let's look at the ruling firstto look at the consequences to
to see whether or not they theythey say Trump is within his
rights, or if they don't, uhwhat tools the White House will

(22:47):
use to further uh furthercontinue their tariffs on on all
these countries, and what theruling says regarding the
tariffs that have come in.

SPEAKER_00 (22:58):
And this young man will have a lot to do with it,
Howard uh Lutnik.
Secretary of Commerce,absolutely gotta have a plan A,
a plan B right now, huh?

SPEAKER_01 (23:07):
Yeah, and he's he's part of the plan B along with
Scott Besant and Jamison Greer,U.S.
trade representative.
Yeah, they've they've been hardat hard hard at work.
There's Scott Besant, theTreasury Secretary, one of the
more I think he's the top starin the Trump cabinet now.
He's the go-to man for Trumpunder a host of issues, whether

(23:30):
it's dealing with Argentina inthat controversial bond swap
that, by the way, has beenreduced.
Remember, it used to be what wasit, 20 billion or 200 billion?
Well, whatever it was, it was alot.
They've scaled that back some.
And he's the front man for uhfor PR on uh Fox News, uh, Fox

(23:51):
Business, CNBC, and X, and uhand mornings with Maria as well.
So when he talks, you betterlisten because he's in the know.

SPEAKER_00 (24:01):
The he is such a calm speaker.
Did you hear that little slappeaky, that little verbal uh
back and forth?
He was meeting with someone andthey were talking about
inflation.
He said, you know, if you moveto a red state, inflation will
be less.
And he said it just smiling.
And I like his style.

SPEAKER_01 (24:19):
I'm gonna have a series of graphics to prove
that, by the way, next week,Tommy.
So that sounds good.

SPEAKER_00 (24:24):
Get ready for them.
All right.
So last thing we did was SupremeCourt.
How about this one?

SPEAKER_01 (24:29):
Well, Congress and the clock.
You recall that when we had thelifting of the shutdown, the
43-day shutdown, they had a whatwe call a CR continuing
resolution until January 30ththrough January 30th.
So that means that Congress,Democrats and Republicans, have
until then to complete fundingfor the nine agencies and

(24:52):
departments that have not yetbeen funded.
USDA was funded, so that's athat's a big deal for USDA.
But we have nine differentagencies that still have to be
funded, and Congress just needsto do their work.
Now, part of the hangup is let'sconnect dots here, that

(25:12):
Affordable Care Act issue thatthe Democrats want to see by the
middle of December.
They've been promised a vote inthe Senate by Majority Leader
John Thune, and they're gonnasee how that goes, and that's
why the negotiations that wetalked about earlier are so
important.
There's John Thune, yes.

(25:34):
And he has been very successfulin getting these complex issues
uh resolved one way or the otherwhen it didn't look like he
could to many other people.
So I just cannot imagine thatCongress, even this visceral
Congress, will do anothergovernment shutdown.
So, but we still have untilJanuary 30th to reach

(25:57):
agreements.
I think there'll be a series ofuh minibuses, what we call
minibuses, two or threeagencies, funding bills that
Congress will vote on in orderto whittle down the number of
agencies that could be part ofuh uh any additional government
shutdown.
But I think lessons were learnedon this last one.

(26:20):
So I'm a little more optimisticthan most people that they'll
they'll uh they'll get it done.

SPEAKER_00 (26:26):
We're gonna need your perspective on this because
there's so much can so muchgoing on here.

SPEAKER_01 (26:31):
Make your head swim.
Um EPA Lee Zeldon has as is in aderegulatory bent, and which is
a good one, but in the case ofuh the renewable fuel standard
program, here's the best way Ican explain it when electric
vehicles were on the rise, okay,you had our crude oil industry

(26:54):
working almost for the firsttime in a major way with the
biofuel companies to come upwith better biofuels policy
because they had both uh a lotto gain versus the electric
vehicles, which they both didn'tlike, okay.
Crude oil for obvious reasons,and the renewable fuel standard
program is based on on you knowgasoline consumed.

(27:17):
That's miles driven.
You don't you don't use gas withEVs.
But now that the rose is off,the bloom is off of the EVs,
they're still being sold, butnot to the degree of growth that
we saw previously under theBiden administration that
basically mandated the use ofEVs, the crude oil industry has

(27:41):
changed.
And now they're saying that theythink that renewable fuel
standard program needs reform.
Well, that's got EPA kind ofshuffling the deck and different
groups going in to talk to theOffice of Management and Budget
and both sides, biofuels andalso the you know crude oil

(28:02):
companies, refiners, relative towhat's going to be the
allocation factor relative tothe uh SRE, the waivers that a
number of refiners got.
That's the complexity of this.
And then we can bring up RINs.
What's going to be the value ofRINs?
How is EPA consistently going totreat uh foreign feedstock uh

(28:26):
for a number of biofuelprograms, including the 45Z
program, sustainable aviationfuel, all that is on the front
burner right now?
What's the timeline for this?
We thought it could be sometimein December, but this could
carry over into early 2026.

(28:47):
Now, the biofuel industry doesnot want that, and I don't blame
them.
And you saw that we also saidE-15.
There's a couple on E-15.
When will we ever get year-roundE-15 through Congress?
Because you want to go throughCongress, that codifies it, so
it can't be changed.
If not, then they could have anexecutive order that we know

(29:09):
that if a differentadministration comes in, they
can just change that.
But E-15 is also an issuerelative to California.
You recall earlier this year,California had a major change.
They were the last state tobless E-15, let alone
year-round.
They they you just couldn't useany E-15 in California.
And they're a big user of uh youknow gasoline, expensive

(29:33):
gasoline.
So E-15 would really helpCalifornia consumers of gasoline
because it runs what around 15%or more cheaper than than the
than the price of uh uh regulargasoline.
Now, the issue with Californianow is I I was on Agri-Talk a
couple of months ago when theyhad a biofuel industry spokesman

(29:56):
who was very optimistic on thetimeline that California would
implement E-15.
And and my sources at the timewas saying, no, look at the
timeline for California.
It could go well into 2026, ifnot longer.
And now, this past week, theU.S.

(30:17):
biofuel industry has admittedthat, and they're saying now
they're they're saying, hey,they're they're pressing
California to accelerate theirtimeline.
Uh it's it's it's their stateagency called Core Carb, C A R
B.
Good luck, because they don'thave a history of accelerating

(30:38):
anything in that agency.
But that's where we're at on E15.
So you can see relative to thebiofuel.
And even 45Z, I should pointout, that's the sustainable
aviation fuel.
We still don't have the rulesand regulations from the
Treasury Department and IRSbecause it's a tax incentive.

(30:59):
Treasury keeps saying, look, weare bogged down getting the
final rules and regulations toimplement the one big beautiful
bill, the OBBB Act, relative tothe tax cuts.
So that tells me we may not knowthose rules on 45Z until
sometime in 2026.

(31:21):
So later rather than sooner,under a host of issues relative
to the uh biofuel programs,Tommy.
Hope that cleared it up.

SPEAKER_00 (31:29):
Unbelievable.
That you cleared it up, allright, youngster.
All right.

SPEAKER_01 (31:35):
Farm bill uncertainty, that's 2.0.
Will we get a skinny?
Some people call it skinny farmbill, other people call it a
farm bill 2.0.
That's G.T.
Thompson's label for it.
I think maybe it could pass thecommittees, the House Ag uh,
House and Senate AG Committees.
But when it comes to the floor,especially the House, because
you're going to have 40 to 50House Republicans who will vote

(31:58):
no on a farm bill just for allhost of reasons.
So that means they needDemocrats in order to pass Farm
Bill 2.0.
And those are the provisions,Tommy, that were not included in
that budget bill last year, inwhich we got a much needed big
increase in reference prices,and we got pretty good

(32:20):
improvements in the cropinsurance program.
So in a big way that was handledrelative that we have already,
but the 2.2.0 are otherprovisions, and they were
recently extended throughSeptember next year.
So that takes some of thepressure off Congress having to

(32:40):
do something right away.
But I think the key issue is howare the Democrats going to view
Farm Bill 2.0?
Are they do they want it to go?
Or do they think that most ofthem do right now that they're
going to win back the Houseafter 2026 elections?
And if that's the case, they maynot want a Farm Bill 2.0,

(33:03):
thinking they'll have morecontrol over the process if and
when they are in control afterthe 2026 election.
So take your cues from theDemocrats on this one.
Will they come to the party andvote for the skinny farm bill?
Are they gonna or do they wantan election year issue thinking,
thinking they think that they'llwin the House in 2026 and be

(33:27):
more in control in 2027?

SPEAKER_00 (33:30):
The story that just doesn't go away.
And last week you and I hadbreaking news on this.
By the way, I took a short clipfrom when you and I broke that
Tyson news and I posted ondifferent social medias.
I had a TikTok of you and Italking about the Tyson closing
the plant.
It went viral on TikTok.
Yeah, I forgot to tell you that.
Wow, over 125,000 views onTikTok of you and I breaking

(33:55):
that news down.
And this is the story that justwon't go away.

SPEAKER_01 (33:58):
Wow, and and I will give a shout out to Secretary
Brooke Rollins.
She did an interview with thepodcast.
Maybe you'll remember the nameof the podcast.
I don't right now.

SPEAKER_00 (34:10):
I'll look it up for you.

SPEAKER_01 (34:11):
Yeah, but it's a cattle, it was very well, I
mean, 40-minute interview.
I mean, and I translated it inan item that's on my
information.
I spent a lot of time goingthrough that excellent
interview, and she showed shewas very adept at these
sensitive cattle industryissues.

(34:31):
And those two cattlemen reallypressed her.
I give them high marks for it.
And that's the beauty to me ofthe quote press right now.
It's not the mainstream pressthat's that's asking the most
important questions anymore,it's these podcast people
ourselves included in thatpodcast.

SPEAKER_00 (34:50):
I have the name of that podcast, Mr.
Weesmeyer.
Okay.
It's Lonesome Lands.
And the podcast, if you go onYouTube, it's called State of
the Cattle Industry withSecretary Brooke Rollins,
Lonesome Report.
And it was a first classinterview.
And I gotta tell you, whetherJoe Vaklavic had her on, other
podcasters had on.
The beauty of doing what you andI are doing today, we'd love to

(35:12):
have her on, Secretary.
If you're out there and you justhave a little extra time, we'd
love to have you on.
And it it'd be easy for us tocontact her with uh your
connections and a few people Iknow.

SPEAKER_01 (35:21):
And I will.
They they've been wanting me tointerview her and Stephen Vaden,
the deputy secretary.
I've already got the okay, so Ithink it's a matter.
I I'm gonna let's just waituntil after they come out with
that fine uh that aid packagenext week.
But maybe by the end, sometimein December, if it fits her
schedule, because she's got abusy one, we're gonna have her

(35:44):
call in to this podcast that'dbe great.

SPEAKER_00 (35:47):
Yeah, and if she wants to call now, 1-855-737
Farm, or if you want to call me,that's her number.
Real quick, what's great and tofinish up is there's I was
listening to you on Chip Flory,and I could tell you were being
pushed because there'scommercials and there's breaks
and there's a clock, and you getgonged out right when you're
getting ready to say something.
And that's how real TV works.

(36:07):
You know, I did the TV down inNashville, and but the beauty of
this is whether we go short orgo long, our only commercial
breaks are ourselves.
This show is paid for andsponsored by Mr.
Weissmeyer and myself, so it'sjust a privilege to media's
change.
That's what I'm trying to say,Jim.
Media's changed tremendously.

SPEAKER_01 (36:24):
Absolutely, and and I can tell from the emails I get
from people who who follow you,Tommy, and my longtime uh people
who have followed my long careeronce they find out uh where
we're at now, and so we're back.
We've got a growing communityout there, and they give us

(36:45):
questions.
I've always said in my wholecareer, my ground truth is that
farmers and ranchers and agindustry people asking me
questions in search of commentsand potential answers.
And that's what we that's whatwe try to give them.

SPEAKER_00 (37:00):
You know what we'll do, Jim?
Because you're I just got usthinking in Brother Joe's here.
Brother Joe, we're gonna postthat podcast, State of the
Cattle Industry Secretary,Brooke Rollins, Lonesome Report.
We'll we'll post that on theAgBull website, and I'll make a
thumbnail for that with theirtitle.
And uh folks go towww.agbull.com and we will have

(37:22):
that uh replay of that podcast.

SPEAKER_01 (37:24):
Yeah, and if you want my digest of it, which was
a long one, I put it in myfiles.
I I think that you ran itbecause it was a special report.

SPEAKER_00 (37:32):
Absolutely, special reports.
We we run them, we get burningoff our fingertips with all your
special reports.
Well, we're getting to the endof the show, and uh the last
thing we covered was did we wedid skinny farm build now?
Oh, I popped it up, but then Ithat's the last one.

SPEAKER_01 (37:47):
Oh, border realt, that's the screw worm.
And again, this this podcastthat she did, lonesome yeah, I
got right here Lonesome Lands.
Lonesome land.
Okay, she really went throughthis.
Now, here's the one she and andVaden has also said recently,
Stephen Vaden, the deputysecretary, a handsome listener.

(38:09):
The solution on this must bebased on science.
Now, they're getting close toreopening that border.
There was some conjecture uh inthe trade that this could be
reopened in a phased-in basis asearly as sometime in December.
I keep on hearing it's more of aJanuary one.
But her comments on this issueshow the sensitivity of that

(38:34):
issue.
She wants to make sure thatthings are in place.
But I keep saying, Tommy,President Trump told her a few
weeks ago he wants that borderopened because he knows that
there's more than a few cattlethat'll eventually make their
way to the United States,hopefully in a positive way, not

(38:56):
to risk the US, you know, cattleindustry.
And you know, it's interesting.
You had the prices that we'veseen, what over you know, this
week with cattle?

SPEAKER_00 (39:06):
Yeah, you want to see that?

SPEAKER_01 (39:08):
Yes, I want to see that.
Look at that.
Oh, it's so good to see anupsign in in cattle and hogs.
I mean, we've got hogs on therun now again, too.
But look at that.
We have been seeing a bloodbath,and again, in that podcast
interview, she had to addressthat price downturn, and she
acknowledged that that that theinitial decision that Trump

(39:32):
talked about relative toquadrupling, was it, uh, our
imports of cattle from uh uhArgentina, now the Brazilian
move uh relative to beef.
But Barons had a storyyesterday, I think, uh that
caught my eye, that it said theequities for uh certain packing

(39:55):
companies are on the rise eversince the discussion has turned
to uh more cattle in the UnitedStates, not from uh U.S.
cattle, but the Argentine move,but more importantly, the
potential reopening of theborder.
That just means that they'llhave more cattle to kill.

(40:17):
Okay, and so that that that thatthat maybe we've seen the lows.
Let's hope so.

SPEAKER_00 (40:23):
Yeah, well, this sure didn't help.
When we announced this and brokethis on our show live last week,
Tyson, Lexington, Nebraskaclosing.
We opened limit down and onlytraded limit down on Monday,
opened Tuesday and quicklyrecovered, closed higher
Tuesday.
We closed higher Wednesday.
We took off Thanksgivingholiday, feeder cattle limit bid

(40:48):
for part of the day today onFriday going home.
Hell of a recovery for thecattle market.

SPEAKER_01 (40:55):
That tells me the analysts are figuring it out
that that, yeah, that initiallypsychologically, this was a
negative.
We knew it when when when whenwhen you saw that, Tommy.
But then the more you lookedinto it, you had the surrounding
of uh feedlots, and you had somealternatives that tempered uh

(41:17):
some of the downdraft that thatwe saw.
So let's hope that it it let'shope it will continue.
And uh Brooke Rollins alsohandled the question.
I think it was Tyson who saidtheir CEO who said that you're
gonna have ten dollarhamburgers.
And she said the internal theinternal analysis at USDA does
not say you know, ten dollarhamburger.

SPEAKER_00 (41:39):
It wasn't Tyson, I got to correct you on that.
It was the guy who sells beef.
It was the CEO of like OmahaBeef where I said you are
correct.
You are say it again.
Hold on, I want to get arecording of this.
Say it again.
I'm correcting Jim Weesmeyer.
Write it down because that's myjob, you know.

SPEAKER_01 (41:56):
I know you do it for me.
Well, anyone needs an editor,let me tell you.
Let me oh, that made my day.

SPEAKER_00 (42:03):
I could I could let you know.

SPEAKER_01 (42:04):
It was Omaha beef.
Yeah, now you're giving it.

SPEAKER_00 (42:06):
I'm paying attention to you.
Last but not least, and I loveyou, brother.
Let's take your home.

SPEAKER_01 (42:11):
This one is so confusing that I haven't been
able to figure out if if you'reI I say in my speeches now, I
begin with, if you're notconfused about what's going on
in Washington, we haven't doneour job.
Okay, because we're allconfused.
And this is a classic example.
Look at all the court challengesthat anything Trump puts out,

(42:34):
it's challenged in court.
Anything EPA puts out, it'schallenged in court.
It's the it's the uh lawyeremployment program, okay?
So it it creates a ping-pongconfusion because as they go
throughout the court system,frequently ending up at the
Supreme Court, where we finallyget a uh a final determination,

(42:59):
right or wrong, on some of thesesensitive issues.
What it tells me, Tommy, is uhyou recall last year we had the
Chevron you know declarationfrom the Supreme Court that
ruling that basically said,Congress, you have to do your
job.
We can't continue to doing itfor you.
And this is my lesson.

(43:20):
Congress has to codify things.
Once you put it in writingclearly and leaving not so much
discretion to whether it's USDA,Treasury Department, energy,
etc., then you have you tell thegovernment which way you want to

(43:40):
go in implementing legislation.
So let's hope Congress uh doestheir job now and and writes
legislation with implementationyou know factored in.
So we don't have all thesechallenges coming in.
And that's my bottom line onthat one, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 (44:00):
Yeah, well, that's a wrap, sir.
Take us home with somethingoptimistic and we'll get out of
here.

SPEAKER_01 (44:05):
Aid.
Now I know farmers more than afew say they want trade aid, not
farmer aid, but you have to getthat bridge.
And we're gonna have severalbridges because it's needed
because of input cost, becauseof still developing Trump trade
policy.
So depending on how manybillions of dollars of aid it
is, it won't nearly be enough,but it's better than nothing.

(44:28):
And then listen to see ifCongress kicks in again, which I
think that they will, becausethe cash flow problems are that
bad.
So we're gonna build a prettysolid bridge into 2026 before
it's all done, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 (44:42):
That sounds good.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer'sPerspectives.
Of course, if you'd ever like tohave Jim speak, go over to
AgSpeakers Network.
You can have Mr.
Wiesmeyer speak at your nextevent.
You know what?
I think I'm even on that websitetoo.
I'll see you later, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
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