Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Inside the shutdown: farm payments, China, and what’s next for ag policy
October 3, 2025 • 36 mins
We break down how the shutdown stalls key USDA payments, why Obamacare funding is the leverage point in Congress, and what a two-phase farmer aid plan might look like. Markets absorbed a bearish stock surprise, China looms over soybean demand, and California greenlights E15 with a slow path to pumps.
• Senate rejects clean funding extension; Obamacare funding becomes leverage
• ECAP 14% paid; ARC/PLC paused; loans and disaster programs on hold
• Roughly half of the U.S. SDA staff furloughed; implementation bottlenecks
• Two-phase aid: White House trade payments first, broader economic aid later
• China purchase timing likely into next year; tariff revenue constraints
• USDA corn stocks surprise; markets show resilience amid thin data
• Possible delay of October crop report; Fed signals rate cut on softer jobs
• California approves E15; infrastructure and labeling push rollout to 2026
• Auto tariff relief chatter highlights wider trade-policy ripple effects
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Thank you, Tommy G
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:13):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Grassofi, Ag Bowl Media, EggBull Trading.
I'm in Nashville, Tennesseetoday at the Nesvik Trading
Office.
And we got the one and only.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
To say I'm excited that thisweek's over, I could use a nap.
Are you tired?
SPEAKER_02 (00:31):
I am very tired because of all the shutdown of
the government, uh, trade aid tofarmers under review could be
announced uh if the government'sopen next week.
Trump is going to meet withCanada's prime minister next
week.
And we have more than that thatwe'll talk about today.
And I do want to tell yourlisteners that I'll be in
(00:54):
Savannah, Georgia, early part ofthis coming week to a crop
insurance agents meeting.
So I'll have fun there.
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
Good, good.
Uh hope uh I hope someone it'dbe really cool if someone
watches this show and they seeyou.
I'll uh I'll pull up the bulletpoints and we'll have a nice
conversation.
Sure.
Got a good organized show.
You know why we got a goodorganized show?
Because you sent us goodorganized notes.
Government shutdown, Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
SPEAKER_02 (01:21):
Yeah, we just had a vote on the Senate floor.
They rejected uh the bill again,a clean, a clean bill to reopen
the government until Novemberthe 21st.
That's the Republican bill thatthey voted down.
We all know the Democratalternative will not pass.
So it looks like we're into nextweek.
(01:41):
I don't know what, I don't thinkthey'll meet this weekend unless
they have a surprisingagreement.
And the one issue to watch foris health care, the Obamacare.
The Democrats uh want a lot ofmoney for that.
But there's time, Tommy, on thisone.
And this is what the Republicansare are telling the Democrats
(02:03):
that this increase, becausethey're gonna get away, they're
gonna do away with the COVIDtime period increase that we saw
in Obamacare payments.
But COVID is basically over, nottotally over, basically over.
And they don't take uh the anincrease coming in the uh
(02:24):
Obamacare payments won't comeuntil December the 31st of this
year.
So, how Speaker Mike Johnson,Republican from Louisiana, is
telling the Democrats, hey,let's get this government opened
again, and then we'll have sevenweeks to talk about whether or
(02:45):
not we can come to an agreementon some portions of what the
Democrats want on Obamacarechanges and what the Republicans
want on Obamacare changes, suchas reform.
There could be there, they wanta means test on that program,
and they want to get into asignificant percentage of
(03:07):
Obamacare payments have beenfiled by insurance companies
that had no claims on it.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
Oh boy, yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (03:14):
So there's a need for a reform.
So that's where we're at, uh, atleast on uh bringing back the
government.
We really don't know.
You have to have a another vote.
So I think they're gonna takethe weekend to try to get an
agreement between thecongressional leaders in both
the House and the Senate andboth parties, and really you
(03:34):
have to have President Trump'sapproval as well on that
Obamacare provision.
SPEAKER_00 (03:39):
Yeah, I I think that Obamacare, there was a lot more
in that recipe than we allrealize when we I remember when
they signed that many years ago,and then a lot of us thought it
was a wonderful thing, but therewas it was like a ticking time
bomb for all the things that arecooked in that.
Is that accurate?
SPEAKER_02 (03:58):
Very accurate, and there was so much misreporting
or sleight of hand when they didit, because remember, it was
supposed to save money.
Well, it it was really a hugecost factor.
And this one provision on theCOVID-related increases, that's
only 200 billion dollars cost.
SPEAKER_00 (04:19):
What's 200b amongst friends, Mr.
Wee Spider?
SPEAKER_02 (04:24):
So there needs to be reform.
And I'm just being honest, uhjust it needs to be reformed.
And they have seven weeks totalk about it.
Now, to be fair to the Democratside, they're saying, you know,
we can't trust you unless wehave it in writing from the
congressional leadership on theother side, Republicans, and
(04:44):
also we have to have anagreement that uh President uh
Trump and his OMB people,Russell Volt, the the the head
of office management and budget,won't rescind this funding after
after we get it.
So you'll eventually some ofthat will be part of an eventual
agreement to bring thegovernment out of shutdown, but
(05:07):
we're not there yet.
SPEAKER_00 (05:08):
Well, let's talk about the easy stuff now.
Status of the USDA paymentsuntil doors reopen.
SPEAKER_02 (05:16):
Yeah, uh a lot.
Now, every shutdown isdifferent, and this
administration has taken a moreaggressive role on payments,
even mandatory payments.
So if you could pull up the uhbullet points, uh yeah, there's
yeah, most farmers are wantingto say the first one's
important.
The additional 14% payment underECAP is out the door, so this is
(05:39):
not affected.
Most of those payments weremade, thank goodness.
Okay, I got a lot of emails fromfarmers saying, hey, they they
deposited it in my account.
I've got the money.
Crop insurance is not impacted,okay, but ARC and PLC is
affected.
Now that hasn't occurred inprior shutdowns, so that won't
(06:00):
those won't be paid for the 2024crop until USDA reopens.
And that's uh$2.3 billion.
That's a chunk of change.
There's no uh commodity loanactivity, and loans won't be
made or redeemed until USDAreopens.
And here's another one (06:17):
the stage two, and the under the
disaster program SDRP, which wasslated for this month, uh,
that's on hold right now.
ERP, ER, ELRP, livestock.
They're halted thoseapplications until USDA comes
back, and the block grants wherecertain states are on pause
(06:37):
until we get the government backand running.
And so that's pretty importantstuff as far as uh you know USDA
is concerned.
And we have about 50 percent ofuh USDA employees being
furloughed.
That's that that's a lot ofpeople.
SPEAKER_00 (06:52):
Yeah, I think I have a chart of that too, don't I?
SPEAKER_02 (06:54):
Yeah, I think we do.
It's just yeah, right there.
Well, yeah, these are by uhagencies within USDA.
Look at Farm Service Agency.
The purple is furloughed, thatmeans not working, and the Aqua,
I guess, or maybe blue.
I like Aqua Aqua, yeah.
Uh the uh that's exempt.
So there's more than a few arestill working over there, but a
(07:18):
lot who are not, and that's theproblem of uh implementing.
You have to have people toactually implement some of these
payments, and they're they'renot there, they're not there.
SPEAKER_00 (07:28):
Interesting.
All righty.
Well, speaking of interesting,let's see what's next.
We got it.
Oh, I do have a question foryou.
Sure, okay.
This I I don't even know whatthe heck I'm talking about here.
But a farmer called me today, hesaid he got all his money for
his payments, last 15, but thegovernment held back one
percent.
What was he talking about?
SPEAKER_02 (07:48):
Well, that's I don't know about one percent.
It was 14.
Remember, they got 85.
So they didn't hold back,they're just gonna pay for 99.
SPEAKER_00 (07:57):
That's the equal, they're not holding back.
SPEAKER_02 (08:00):
No, no, no.
SPEAKER_00 (08:00):
He expected, yeah.
That's the 14th.
What do we call that garbage in,garbage out?
All right, thank you forclearing that.
SPEAKER_02 (08:08):
They wanted a hundred percent, but they got
ninety-nine.
Let me tell you if I getninety-nine percent of anything,
I'm happy.
And and I'm a cynic, so I'mhappy at 99.
SPEAKER_00 (08:19):
What's this bad boy?
Website showdown.
SPEAKER_02 (08:22):
Oh, this is the funny politics of a shutdown.
Now, it's not happy if you'renot working and you want to
check and things like that.
So I fully understand thesensitivity on that, but it
didn't take the Republicans longto fire off some some websites
uh at the White House and atUSDA is very aggressive.
(08:42):
And I think we have a couple ofthem or or not, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (08:46):
Oh, on the charts of those?
Yeah.
Oh, with the uh that prettypicture of Amtrak and stuff.
SPEAKER_02 (08:52):
Well, no, that's that's just the impacts of the
uh of the government shutdown.
But the websites of the WhiteHouse just we'll have to talk
our way through.
Okay, the White House squarelyput it on uh oh, I see it here
in your notes.
SPEAKER_00 (09:07):
This one I'll read it to you.
Due to the radical left democratshutdown, the government website
will not be updated.
SPEAKER_02 (09:14):
That one, yeah, that's from you.
That's on USDA's website.
SPEAKER_00 (09:17):
Dear Lord, is that even legal?
SPEAKER_02 (09:19):
That's pretty all that all all is fair and love
and politics.
Okay, so yeah, and the WhiteHouse has it on their main page,
but now the Democrats is aretrying to counter with some odd
graphics, I think, of a of acat.
I I just can't understand wherethey're going.
And Governor uh Newsom, Democratgovernor from California, has a
(09:41):
countdown of how long theRepublican shutdown is lasting.
So you can see his spin on thatone.
It's just there's they're andall this is happening to get the
spin on who Americans voters aregonna blame for this shutdown.
Now, I will tell you there werethere was a Wall Street Journal
(10:03):
story today that the White Houseand some Republican lawmakers
are getting nervous about thishealth care provision because
they're they're thinking thatthe majority will blame the
Republicans, even though theRepublicans want a clean, want a
clean bill relative to gettingthe government back.
(10:27):
And it's usually not the case.
It's usually the Republicansasking for something to keep the
government open.
If you recall when Trump was inwhen they shut down the
government, they wanted theywanted funding for the wall,
they wanted to delete Obamacare.
This was all the Republicansasked when they shut down the
government.
(10:47):
This time, the Republicans wanta clean bill, and the Democrats
are asking around, I think, 1.5trillion with a T trillion
dollars in increased funding inorder to get their votes to pass
the Senate.
They're five votes away in theSenate, Tommy.
We've wow.
(11:08):
So, but three Democraticsenators have already broken
with their party leadership andhave voted with the Republicans.
They need five more, and that'swhere they're continuing to talk
to get five more Democrats.
I think eventually, I think bythe end of next week, you know,
(11:28):
we'll have the government open.
I I hope I'm right there.
SPEAKER_00 (11:31):
Okay.
I was gonna ask you, and youmight not remember the longest
the government's ever beenclosed.
I want to say for some reasonthe 35 days, maybe 35, 40.
Stock market earlier today, justside note, folks, Dow Jones was
up 500 earlier.
SPEAKER_02 (11:46):
Uh, that's not exactly a market that's really
uh scared or uh gives two licksthat uh were shut down for no,
they they know that although ithurts each day, you know, but uh
overall, no, they're they'reprobably thinking what I just
told you that uh so we we prettymuch just covered this point,
right, Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (12:04):
How long will the government shut up?
SPEAKER_02 (12:06):
They're covering it now.
They're betting markets, youknow.
There's the betting markets onit.
Now the betting markets arethinking it could last about 10
days when I really read read thebetting markets, and at least
that's the consensus view.
I would I think how this isgonna end is that the Democrats
want it in writing that they'regoing to do something on
(12:28):
Obamacare, their Obamacareasked.
Usually that signals that on theuh a House and Senate floor
there'll be a colleaguesoliloquies on by all leaders of
what they're going, what they'veagreed to.
And I think you'll see thatsometime next week.
And if if everybody's inagreement, then they'll have a
(12:50):
vote and we'll get thegovernment uh you know back.
But how far do the Republicansgo relative to the Obamacare?
Because they may have a problemwith uh really right-wing
Republicans in the House whodon't want to give hardly
anything, if at all, onObamacare.
So this is not a hundred percentthat that uh it will occur.
SPEAKER_00 (13:15):
Now, this is the part that uh I know so many of
our viewers and listeners arevery much agg-related.
Farmer aid program.
What can you tell us about that?
SPEAKER_02 (13:24):
I spent a lot of time on this one, and I think I
almost understand what they'regoing to do.
Now, I don't think you'll have auh uh uh Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessant said uh uh on aCNBC show that a uh trade aid uh
(13:44):
plan could be announced as soonas Tuesday next week.
Yes, that's it.
Yes.
And but I think the government'sgonna have to be open for them
to actually announce it.
But now hear me out on this one.
I think we're gonna have farmeraid in two phases.
Okay, one will be what the WhiteHouse eventually announces,
(14:05):
anywhere from 10 billion to 14billion dollars, and that'll be
primarily as a result of onecountry, China.
Because when you look at US agexports, they're tracking pretty
close for other countries,exports, but not to China.
So we could have an announcementof 10 to 14 billion dollars.
(14:27):
The Wall Street Journal reportedthat, but they're gonna call
that trade aid, but they'llprobably, when they do announce
it, put an economic spin on it.
Where they're going to get themoney, the funding, I think four
to five billion dollars willcome from the Commodity Credit
Corporation.
That's what remains, that's notobligated for other payments.
And yeah, they're gonna figuresome other way, and you know,
(14:50):
the government can look indrawers and five billions of
dollars to be blunt.
So it looks like 10 to 14billion dollars for perspective.
Uh first administration, Trump1.0, we had 12 billion dollars
in China trade war payments thefirst year, and then the second
(15:10):
year, 2019, we had 16 billion.
So a total of 28 billion, butthat was over two years.
So if the 12 billion dollars,you know, that's right in that
range, right?
The 10 to 14 billion dollarsthat the Wall Street Journal
speculated on based on sources,so it could be that now.
If it's China related again,soybeans, uh sorghum, and cotton
(15:36):
and some other come on cherriesin California will get payments.
I'm not so sure about corn.
We have record corn really,yeah.
I'm not quite, you know, thefirst uh trade war payments uh
corn, you know, yeah, carproducers didn't get hardly
anything.
SPEAKER_00 (15:52):
I mean, it was it's wasn't that something stupid
like a penny.
SPEAKER_02 (15:55):
It was, it wasn't that a cheap or or whatever it
was, it was yeah, per bushel andthat it was and something
similar to that.
So they would look to Congressuh for a another economic aid
package.
Remember, we had on December21st last year, Congress passed
(16:17):
uh twofold$10 billion ineconomic aid.
That was the ECAP program thatthey just paid the other 14% on,
uh 99%, and then they announcedaround$21 billion in ag disaster
payments.
Now, what's gonna happen isRepublican lawmakers are already
penciling out what they couldpropose, and I think it'll come
(16:40):
under probably Section 5authority under the Commodity
Credit Corporation when it'seventually done.
When will that occur?
I it's not gonna be right away.
I think it'll take until the endof year spending bill as an
add-on.
And I I've heard all sorts of uhlevels as far as aid, but it'll
(17:02):
be above whatever the WhiteHouse announces.
Okay.
SPEAKER_00 (17:06):
That'll be interesting.
SPEAKER_02 (17:07):
And but now then you have to see what will the
Democrats go along with that?
Or do will they want to extractappendages to that in order to
sign off on this additionalspending?
Now, I think farm statelawmakers from democratic states
should sign on, but will theleadership so that's not a
hundred percent that they canget that that types of billions
(17:29):
of dollars in phase two, eventhough I my hunch would say that
it'll eventually happen becausethe economic aid uh is there.
So two phases for farmer aid.
Yeah, there's the fearlessleaders and Dick Derman from
Illinois, Schumer from New York,and now the Republicans say the
reason why Schumer did not goalong with the clean um
(17:53):
continuing resolution or stopgap spending measure is he's
worried uh in 2028 when he's upfor re-election that he's gonna
be uh challenged by AOC, uhOcasio Cortez, and that's why
he's gonna appear to be verystrong against the White House
and against the Republicans inCongress.
(18:14):
So that's where we're atpolitically on this one.
SPEAKER_00 (18:17):
So very interesting.
I got a little breaking newstweet, if you don't mind me
interjecting here.
All right, I'll read it to thecrowd.
This is from Senator JohnHovind.
It's a little uh seven-minutevideo that was just released on
X.
It's time to end the Schumershutdown.
We need to reopen thegovernment, deliver disaster aid
to farmers, and push back onChina's pressure tactics.
(18:39):
Let's pass a clean CR and getback to work for the American
people.
That is Senator John Hovind fromthe great state of North Dakota.
Mr.
SPEAKER_02 (18:49):
Yeah, he's appropriate, he's big kingman
and appropriate checkbook in thepast.
Absolutely.
Let's go through that a littlebit now.
This is China, yes, becausethey're the reason for this.
And yes, Trump is going to meetas well.
We know now, at the end of thismonth at the in South Korea,
(19:11):
he's gonna meet with Xi Jinping.
Now, Scott Besson has alreadysaid that soybeans are gonna be
a big ask uh for by Trump, likesaying to China, you need to buy
some US soybeans.
My point in this is what's Chinagonna ask?
What does Xi Jinping want?
Because he's already given to adegree on TikTok, and if they
(19:35):
agree on purchasing U.S.
soybeans, how much, when, uhthat's still to be determined.
What's he gonna want?
SPEAKER_00 (19:43):
Very interesting.
SPEAKER_02 (19:44):
What's he gonna want?
And that could get intogeopolitics, it could get into
Taiwan, etc.
And even if we have a tradeagreement with China, I know the
last time how long that took toget it done.
So that's why this bridgepayment relative to China is
gonna have to take place.
Because when you negotiate withChina, the only country that
(20:06):
takes longer is India to get anyagreement, if you ever get an
agreement with India.
So that's what's in the making.
Now, if they were as a goodfaith going into this late
October, first few days ofNovember in South Korea meeting,
China could uh do a good goodfaith uh purchase of U.S.
(20:27):
soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (20:28):
Okay, that would be great.
SPEAKER_02 (20:29):
Yeah, it wouldn't hurt, but when do they need the
beans?
Because you know that uhcombination of Brazil and
Argentina, they're almost filledin their soybean needs almost
through the end of this year.
So we're really talking nextyear, Tommy, in my judgment.
Here's another side story.
Why has Scott Bessant, theTreasury Secretary, been so open
(20:53):
about this trade aid coming?
Well, he's he's one of the topeconomic advisors to uh Trump.
That's one reason.
But the other one is he's takenholy H from the proposed uh$20
billion bond swap to backstopArgentina.
Well, if you recall, we talkedabout that in the prior podcast
(21:15):
and said the American SoybeanAssociation was very upset about
saying, hey, wait a minute, butwhat about us?
You know, what about us?
Senator Chuck Grassley,Republican uh from Iowa,
lambasted like saying, you needto look to the U.S.
farmer.
I think uh Scott Bessett hasbeen so out in front because he
he wants to temper some of thenegatives that he's been getting
(21:38):
in the press about thatArgentine proposal.
So there's a cause and effecthere.
The other official from theTrump administration I really
listened to is uh the NationalEconomic Uh Council director,
Hassett, because he's he alsosaid this week that there's
(21:59):
billions and billions of dollarsis the exact quote that they uh
have in order to get atrade-related payment.
Now, here's another angle tothis trade aid, Tommy.
Again, we've talked a littleabout it in the past.
President Trump always says youcan tap the the uh the billions
(22:20):
of dollars in trade tariffrevenue that's coming in.
But when you look at the at thelegislation embodying that, it's
not necessarily the case whereyou can move that money from the
Treasury Department, that'swhere the tariff revenue goes,
into a direct farmer payment.
(22:40):
So I think that may needcongressional legislation,
unless they have very creativelawyers in the Trump
administration that has foundthat have found a way in order
to tap this trade uh revenue asa direct uh farmer payment.
I have my doubts, but I neverrule out creative lawyers.
SPEAKER_00 (23:04):
I like creative lawyers and accountants and
whatnot.
Hey, uh, we had a littlesurprise, Mr.
Wiesmeyer, this week.
The USDA really gave us, theysaid the American farmers are
awesome at growing corn, and wehave plenty of it.
SPEAKER_02 (23:17):
Yeah, they increased uh the 2024 crop a tad.
I think what 24 million bushels.
I may be wrong on that.
But then demand, remember,demand sometimes is subjective.
It's unlike soybeans where wehave data checks, but feed
demand and well, we have exportsdata check, it was less than
expected.
So stocks went up.
And look at here's the numbersthat you look at USDA at 1.53 to
(23:43):
billion bushels.
The average trade guesstimatewas around just shy of 200
million bushels less than that.
So USDA surprised on stocks tothe upside, they were higher.
Now that's a bearish number.
I don't care any way you look atit.
Now we we we went down for a fewdays, if I recall, but then
(24:05):
we've rallied back pretty good,Tommy, right?
Yeah, corn.
SPEAKER_00 (24:09):
Yeah, we've had uh, yeah, and soybeans actually
finished the uh week higher.
And corn and wheat looked overat soybeans going up and said,
Hell with it, we got to go uptoo.
So it was not a I gotta tellyou, Jim, with the United States
government closed, with Chinagoing on holiday next week, with
all the BS going on and withharvest going on, full-blown
(24:30):
harvest pressure.
The uh here's what's going onall across rural America, right
here.
I think grains did incrediblywell this week.
I I agree with you.
I think sometimes when guys likeyou and I get on, you know, we
could seem like we're down,government shut China, but
really there was a lot of greatthings that happened this week.
And depending on what politicalparty you're in or spin, yeah,
(24:53):
sure, you can make it seem likeAmerica, the world's ending.
But I gotta tell you something,Jim.
I went to Laney Wilson concertlast night in Nashville.
Yes, it was packed, it was soldout, and then Ella Langley.
SPEAKER_02 (25:05):
Yeah, I saw pictures of it.
SPEAKER_00 (25:06):
Ella Langley came on stage with her, jelly roll came
on stage with their Broadway waspacked.
How late it was packed, youknow, me being responsible,
knowing I had to film We SmaresPerspectives went home, but it
was going on.
America's booming.
Now, I'm sitting in downtownNashville in a high-rise.
That the American economy isgood, not for everyone, yeah,
(25:29):
but for a lot of us.
SPEAKER_02 (25:30):
Yes, my friend Sean Haney, I think you know him in
Canada.
He was at the concert last week.
Yes, uh, he sent me pictures.
Yeah, gun.
Is he still in town?
He he and his wife, he probablyis.
I think he because he wasn't onagri talk today.
SPEAKER_00 (25:46):
Let's post his number here on the uh bottom
give Sean Amy a couple.
SPEAKER_02 (25:51):
Here's the one on the on the corn.
See, I'm from Illinois, so Ihave to watch how I say corn
because Illinois says corn.
SPEAKER_00 (25:57):
Illinois, how many S's at the end of Illinois?
You never hear someone do that.
SPEAKER_02 (26:03):
I still say the kitchen zinc.
Okay, so that's my Illinoiscoming back at me.
But anyway, will we have anOctober crop production report?
Uh, it's looking less so becauseof uh, unless they there maybe
would be a chance that they hadan agreement over the weekend,
but I want to hear that fromNAS.
(26:23):
But it looks like uh thisestimate is as of October one.
So I I don't know how muchadvanced work that NAS did.
So we may not have an Octobercrop production report to see
whether or not the size of thatcorn crop has gone lower
relative to all these diseaseand other problems that the
(26:44):
general farm media are arepointing out, Tommy.
So that means the privateestimates not on site are gonna
be uh important, right?
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
Like ADP jobs report, for example.
SPEAKER_02 (26:57):
Yeah, yes, right, yeah, oh yeah, absolutely,
because we didn't have the jobsreport this morning.
I'm already geared up on alwaysgeared up on jobs report day to
have the impact short-term,long-term.
We we we didn't have it, soyeah, we're flying blind, and
that means the Federal Reservetoo, in their October Federal
Open Market Committee, but theyhave other data data sources.
(27:21):
So I I you know I think thatthey can do their work and the
the financial futures marketclearly signal another 25 basis
point cut in interest rates.
And I uh while that's not 100%given it looks to be the case
because the job job new jobs isa little weak right now because
(27:42):
of all the uncertainty.
I think once we get through thethe trade uh morass and these
tariffs, we get the SupremeCourt ruling on whether or not
Trump was on legal grounds to dothose uh tariffs uh because he
used emergency authority.
We'll know that either late thisyear or early next year.
We want a little more uhcertainty with US-China
(28:06):
relations.
You know, at least that's comingin the near horizon.
So once we get through withthat, then you're gonna see
businesses can plan, they canhire more people, they can come
out with different products.
But right now, I think a numberof companies are on hold,
wanting some answers.
SPEAKER_00 (28:24):
That makes sense.
That makes sense.
Let's head out to uh your buddyover here, Mr.
Newsom.
What's what's he what's gavinnewsome?
SPEAKER_02 (28:31):
Well, we have good news for corn because California
was the only state that had notapproved uh uh E-15.
We've got that out of the way.
Yeah, but now the the key thereis when will they actually sell
E15?
Do we have some of the reasonsin the in a in a chart or not?
SPEAKER_00 (28:52):
No, didn't didn't it didn't make the uh cutting room
as easy in Hollywood.
Okay, okay.
But I can read them to you.
SPEAKER_02 (28:59):
Would you like to well no let me go through the
the the big one isinfrastructure?
Most stations are not yetcertified.
I don't care what the carngrowers tell me, they're not
they're not yet certified, andcompatible hardware exists, you
well listed pumps and tanks, butapprovals, Tommy, and fire
marshal certifications arerequired.
(29:22):
That takes time.
Then another one is I have herecarbon environment review.
Well, the the refiners anddistributors, they have to
retool the blending storage forfor E15.
Some terminals have begun theupgrades, I was told, but
coverage is limited.
That takes time, but at leastit's in progress.
Pending EPA labels exist, butCalifornia specific dispenser
(29:48):
labeling has not yet beenfinalized by California's carb.
So now here's here's here's oneof the key California's carb is
going To have a meeting October14th, they set a workshop, so
we're gonna see how that turnsout because they're going to
(30:10):
have a public comment periodafter that workshop on E15.
And the public comment periodgoes from October 14th to
November the 12th this year.
What's the bottom line?
Why am I saying all this?
I I think it's gonna take into2026, maybe well into 2026,
before we see a significant, nowhear me correct, a significant
(30:34):
availability of E15 inCalifornia, which is a big
market, but it's coming.
We just but watch carb, watchcarb.
SPEAKER_00 (30:42):
That's interesting.
Yeah.
Real quick, while uh you werespeaking, we had some breaking
news.
I don't know how much you knowabout it, but we'll just talk
about it.
Trump considering uh significanttariff relief for uh U.S.
auto production, Republicansenator.
Uh, how would he pronounce it?
Morano says, Morano.
SPEAKER_02 (30:57):
Uh Trump Senator, yeah.
Well, because there's a numberof plants in Ohio, so I can
understand.
Uh Trump has got pushback undersome of the trucks and some of
the exemptions that he gave anumber of countries.
So he's having to uh double uphere and give financial aid to
certain of the uh uh autosectors, and that's a big, big
(31:19):
political importance in the uhmanufacturing, in the jobs, etc.
So I'm not surprised that thathe's doing some economic aid for
that sector as well.
SPEAKER_00 (31:30):
Yeah, absolutely.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, we're listeningto Weissmeyer's Perspectives.
I'm Tommy Grassaffee.
We want to take a moment forstation identification and
promote Mr.
Weesmeier.
I know you like him becauseyou're watching the show.
If you'd like to be on hisnewsletter right there,
Weismeyer at Gmail.
Handsome alert.
We'll get some sound effectswhere we ring a bell.
(31:52):
I might even have a bell.
Let me try.
Well, there you go.
We smire at gmail.
All right.
SPEAKER_02 (31:59):
And a number of listeners and viewers have
already uh asked me, andhopefully, if I haven't put you
on my list, you should begetting my newsletter.
If not, email me right back atuh the email.
That was my last name atgmail.com.
And this is my give back to theindustry that has been so good
to me for five decades.
SPEAKER_00 (32:19):
Absolutely.
Now, here's my little salespitch.
I got a new website up,www.agbull.com.
We do commodity brokerage and wehave an information video tech
service where we uh put out alot of other content.
You see Wees Meyer'sperspectives, but there's a lot
of videos we do that we don'tlet out to the general public.
And what that is called is thisservice right here.
(32:42):
You go to www.agbull and you goto agbull intel monthly or
agbull intel annually, and youcan get signed up for that.
I think it's pretty affordable,Jim.
I don't think that's asking toomuch for someone to pay$25 a
month.
SPEAKER_02 (32:54):
No, that's a lot less than my beer tab at my my
bar.
SPEAKER_00 (32:58):
I like that.
I like that.
Speaking of beer tabs and bars,back in the day when I was a kid
uh working at the Board ofTrade, remember the restaurant
series?
Yes, uh you used to just signyour bill and they would series
and traders and brokers at therestaurants, they would just
send you a uh a bill at the endof the month.
And no further bills.
There's nothing like thatanymore, huh?
SPEAKER_02 (33:20):
My local bar here, where we have what I call thirst
thirsty Thursdays, where I meetwith my city folk to try to
meet.
SPEAKER_00 (33:32):
Emergency uh meetings and Thursdays, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (33:34):
Yeah, but at least I walk to it, it's right around
the corner from my house.
That's called dangerous.
SPEAKER_00 (33:40):
Being responsible.
Hey, uh, real quick before weget out of here, is there
anything we could expect overthe weekend?
I'm gonna get the show bundledup.
It's Friday afternoon, it'll beout by 3, 3:30.
You can let all your goodlisteners and I want to thank
your listeners and viewers,they've been coming over to the
Eggbow Podcast, clicking,liking, and subscribing.
But good.
SPEAKER_02 (33:57):
There could be an agreement uh between the
Democrats and Republicans.
I'm not gonna rule that outbecause they're talking.
And you've heard me say before: as long as you're talking, (34:03):
undefined
there's a possibility ofsuccess.
And number two, we we may beable to find out more on this
coming trade-related aid to geta little bit more specific.
So there you listen to ScottBessent, you know, uh, and the
(34:24):
NEC director Hassett, and thenUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins.
I think uh just be on thelookout for some of those
comments.
But it's not a question of ifit's coming, it's when and and
how much and how they're gonnabe funded, as we've already
talked about.
And and then the second phase, Ithink is gonna be up to Congress
(34:46):
later this year under the trueeconomic aid, and then that'll
that'll cover a lot morecommodities.
I think this first one,trade-related, is gonna be
China-centric, and it's gonna befor those commodities who've
lost market share as a result ofChina pulling back from the U.S.
market, soybeans, sorghum,cotton, cherries, and a number
(35:08):
of other commodities.
SPEAKER_00 (35:10):
Very interesting.
Very interesting.
All right, we're gonna end theshow this way.
Look at that.
Do you love America?
I love America.
I love the stars, yeah.
If you uh if you listened allthe way to the end, you call
1-855-737-Farm or email us or goto www.agbull.com.
I got two free flags, three byfive American-made flags we want
to give away to the listeners ofWiesmeyer's perspectives.
(35:33):
And with that, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer is the star of theshow.
He came prepared.
Jim, I will see you next week.
If there's breaking news, folks,you've got to get signed up for
Jim's newsletter because he'llget it out to you.
He'll be pumping out content allweekend.
See ya, my friend.
See ya.
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Grassofi, Ag Bowl Media, EggBull Trading.
I'm in Nashville, Tennesseetoday at the Nesvik Trading
Office.
And we got the one and only.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
To say I'm excited that thisweek's over, I could use a nap.
Are you tired?
SPEAKER_02 (00:31):
I am very tired because of all the shutdown of
the government, uh, trade aid tofarmers under review could be
announced uh if the government'sopen next week.
Trump is going to meet withCanada's prime minister next
week.
And we have more than that thatwe'll talk about today.
And I do want to tell yourlisteners that I'll be in
(00:54):
Savannah, Georgia, early part ofthis coming week to a crop
insurance agents meeting.
So I'll have fun there.
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
Good, good.
Uh hope uh I hope someone it'dbe really cool if someone
watches this show and they seeyou.
I'll uh I'll pull up the bulletpoints and we'll have a nice
conversation.
Sure.
Got a good organized show.
You know why we got a goodorganized show?
Because you sent us goodorganized notes.
Government shutdown, Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
SPEAKER_02 (01:21):
Yeah, we just had a vote on the Senate floor.
They rejected uh the bill again,a clean, a clean bill to reopen
the government until Novemberthe 21st.
That's the Republican bill thatthey voted down.
We all know the Democratalternative will not pass.
So it looks like we're into nextweek.
(01:41):
I don't know what, I don't thinkthey'll meet this weekend unless
they have a surprisingagreement.
And the one issue to watch foris health care, the Obamacare.
The Democrats uh want a lot ofmoney for that.
But there's time, Tommy, on thisone.
And this is what the Republicansare are telling the Democrats
(02:03):
that this increase, becausethey're gonna get away, they're
gonna do away with the COVIDtime period increase that we saw
in Obamacare payments.
But COVID is basically over, nottotally over, basically over.
And they don't take uh the anincrease coming in the uh
(02:24):
Obamacare payments won't comeuntil December the 31st of this
year.
So, how Speaker Mike Johnson,Republican from Louisiana, is
telling the Democrats, hey,let's get this government opened
again, and then we'll have sevenweeks to talk about whether or
(02:45):
not we can come to an agreementon some portions of what the
Democrats want on Obamacarechanges and what the Republicans
want on Obamacare changes, suchas reform.
There could be there, they wanta means test on that program,
and they want to get into asignificant percentage of
(03:07):
Obamacare payments have beenfiled by insurance companies
that had no claims on it.
SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
Oh boy, yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (03:14):
So there's a need for a reform.
So that's where we're at, uh, atleast on uh bringing back the
government.
We really don't know.
You have to have a another vote.
So I think they're gonna takethe weekend to try to get an
agreement between thecongressional leaders in both
the House and the Senate andboth parties, and really you
(03:34):
have to have President Trump'sapproval as well on that
Obamacare provision.
SPEAKER_00 (03:39):
Yeah, I I think that Obamacare, there was a lot more
in that recipe than we allrealize when we I remember when
they signed that many years ago,and then a lot of us thought it
was a wonderful thing, but therewas it was like a ticking time
bomb for all the things that arecooked in that.
Is that accurate?
SPEAKER_02 (03:58):
Very accurate, and there was so much misreporting
or sleight of hand when they didit, because remember, it was
supposed to save money.
Well, it it was really a hugecost factor.
And this one provision on theCOVID-related increases, that's
only 200 billion dollars cost.
SPEAKER_00 (04:19):
What's 200b amongst friends, Mr.
Wee Spider?
SPEAKER_02 (04:24):
So there needs to be reform.
And I'm just being honest, uhjust it needs to be reformed.
And they have seven weeks totalk about it.
Now, to be fair to the Democratside, they're saying, you know,
we can't trust you unless wehave it in writing from the
congressional leadership on theother side, Republicans, and
(04:44):
also we have to have anagreement that uh President uh
Trump and his OMB people,Russell Volt, the the the head
of office management and budget,won't rescind this funding after
after we get it.
So you'll eventually some ofthat will be part of an eventual
agreement to bring thegovernment out of shutdown, but
(05:07):
we're not there yet.
SPEAKER_00 (05:08):
Well, let's talk about the easy stuff now.
Status of the USDA paymentsuntil doors reopen.
SPEAKER_02 (05:16):
Yeah, uh a lot.
Now, every shutdown isdifferent, and this
administration has taken a moreaggressive role on payments,
even mandatory payments.
So if you could pull up the uhbullet points, uh yeah, there's
yeah, most farmers are wantingto say the first one's
important.
The additional 14% payment underECAP is out the door, so this is
(05:39):
not affected.
Most of those payments weremade, thank goodness.
Okay, I got a lot of emails fromfarmers saying, hey, they they
deposited it in my account.
I've got the money.
Crop insurance is not impacted,okay, but ARC and PLC is
affected.
Now that hasn't occurred inprior shutdowns, so that won't
(06:00):
those won't be paid for the 2024crop until USDA reopens.
And that's uh$2.3 billion.
That's a chunk of change.
There's no uh commodity loanactivity, and loans won't be
made or redeemed until USDAreopens.
And here's another one (06:17):
the stage two, and the under the
disaster program SDRP, which wasslated for this month, uh,
that's on hold right now.
ERP, ER, ELRP, livestock.
They're halted thoseapplications until USDA comes
back, and the block grants wherecertain states are on pause
(06:37):
until we get the government backand running.
And so that's pretty importantstuff as far as uh you know USDA
is concerned.
And we have about 50 percent ofuh USDA employees being
furloughed.
That's that that's a lot ofpeople.
SPEAKER_00 (06:52):
Yeah, I think I have a chart of that too, don't I?
SPEAKER_02 (06:54):
Yeah, I think we do.
It's just yeah, right there.
Well, yeah, these are by uhagencies within USDA.
Look at Farm Service Agency.
The purple is furloughed, thatmeans not working, and the Aqua,
I guess, or maybe blue.
I like Aqua Aqua, yeah.
Uh the uh that's exempt.
So there's more than a few arestill working over there, but a
(07:18):
lot who are not, and that's theproblem of uh implementing.
You have to have people toactually implement some of these
payments, and they're they'renot there, they're not there.
SPEAKER_00 (07:28):
Interesting.
All righty.
Well, speaking of interesting,let's see what's next.
We got it.
Oh, I do have a question foryou.
Sure, okay.
This I I don't even know whatthe heck I'm talking about here.
But a farmer called me today, hesaid he got all his money for
his payments, last 15, but thegovernment held back one
percent.
What was he talking about?
SPEAKER_02 (07:48):
Well, that's I don't know about one percent.
It was 14.
Remember, they got 85.
So they didn't hold back,they're just gonna pay for 99.
SPEAKER_00 (07:57):
That's the equal, they're not holding back.
SPEAKER_02 (08:00):
No, no, no.
SPEAKER_00 (08:00):
He expected, yeah.
That's the 14th.
What do we call that garbage in,garbage out?
All right, thank you forclearing that.
SPEAKER_02 (08:08):
They wanted a hundred percent, but they got
ninety-nine.
Let me tell you if I getninety-nine percent of anything,
I'm happy.
And and I'm a cynic, so I'mhappy at 99.
SPEAKER_00 (08:19):
What's this bad boy?
Website showdown.
SPEAKER_02 (08:22):
Oh, this is the funny politics of a shutdown.
Now, it's not happy if you'renot working and you want to
check and things like that.
So I fully understand thesensitivity on that, but it
didn't take the Republicans longto fire off some some websites
uh at the White House and atUSDA is very aggressive.
(08:42):
And I think we have a couple ofthem or or not, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (08:46):
Oh, on the charts of those?
Yeah.
Oh, with the uh that prettypicture of Amtrak and stuff.
SPEAKER_02 (08:52):
Well, no, that's that's just the impacts of the
uh of the government shutdown.
But the websites of the WhiteHouse just we'll have to talk
our way through.
Okay, the White House squarelyput it on uh oh, I see it here
in your notes.
SPEAKER_00 (09:07):
This one I'll read it to you.
Due to the radical left democratshutdown, the government website
will not be updated.
SPEAKER_02 (09:14):
That one, yeah, that's from you.
That's on USDA's website.
SPEAKER_00 (09:17):
Dear Lord, is that even legal?
SPEAKER_02 (09:19):
That's pretty all that all all is fair and love
and politics.
Okay, so yeah, and the WhiteHouse has it on their main page,
but now the Democrats is aretrying to counter with some odd
graphics, I think, of a of acat.
I I just can't understand wherethey're going.
And Governor uh Newsom, Democratgovernor from California, has a
(09:41):
countdown of how long theRepublican shutdown is lasting.
So you can see his spin on thatone.
It's just there's they're andall this is happening to get the
spin on who Americans voters aregonna blame for this shutdown.
Now, I will tell you there werethere was a Wall Street Journal
(10:03):
story today that the White Houseand some Republican lawmakers
are getting nervous about thishealth care provision because
they're they're thinking thatthe majority will blame the
Republicans, even though theRepublicans want a clean, want a
clean bill relative to gettingthe government back.
(10:27):
And it's usually not the case.
It's usually the Republicansasking for something to keep the
government open.
If you recall when Trump was inwhen they shut down the
government, they wanted theywanted funding for the wall,
they wanted to delete Obamacare.
This was all the Republicansasked when they shut down the
government.
(10:47):
This time, the Republicans wanta clean bill, and the Democrats
are asking around, I think, 1.5trillion with a T trillion
dollars in increased funding inorder to get their votes to pass
the Senate.
They're five votes away in theSenate, Tommy.
We've wow.
(11:08):
So, but three Democraticsenators have already broken
with their party leadership andhave voted with the Republicans.
They need five more, and that'swhere they're continuing to talk
to get five more Democrats.
I think eventually, I think bythe end of next week, you know,
(11:28):
we'll have the government open.
I I hope I'm right there.
SPEAKER_00 (11:31):
Okay.
I was gonna ask you, and youmight not remember the longest
the government's ever beenclosed.
I want to say for some reasonthe 35 days, maybe 35, 40.
Stock market earlier today, justside note, folks, Dow Jones was
up 500 earlier.
SPEAKER_02 (11:46):
Uh, that's not exactly a market that's really
uh scared or uh gives two licksthat uh were shut down for no,
they they know that although ithurts each day, you know, but uh
overall, no, they're they'reprobably thinking what I just
told you that uh so we we prettymuch just covered this point,
right, Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (12:04):
How long will the government shut up?
SPEAKER_02 (12:06):
They're covering it now.
They're betting markets, youknow.
There's the betting markets onit.
Now the betting markets arethinking it could last about 10
days when I really read read thebetting markets, and at least
that's the consensus view.
I would I think how this isgonna end is that the Democrats
want it in writing that they'regoing to do something on
(12:28):
Obamacare, their Obamacareasked.
Usually that signals that on theuh a House and Senate floor
there'll be a colleaguesoliloquies on by all leaders of
what they're going, what they'veagreed to.
And I think you'll see thatsometime next week.
And if if everybody's inagreement, then they'll have a
(12:50):
vote and we'll get thegovernment uh you know back.
But how far do the Republicansgo relative to the Obamacare?
Because they may have a problemwith uh really right-wing
Republicans in the House whodon't want to give hardly
anything, if at all, onObamacare.
So this is not a hundred percentthat that uh it will occur.
SPEAKER_00 (13:15):
Now, this is the part that uh I know so many of
our viewers and listeners arevery much agg-related.
Farmer aid program.
What can you tell us about that?
SPEAKER_02 (13:24):
I spent a lot of time on this one, and I think I
almost understand what they'regoing to do.
Now, I don't think you'll have auh uh uh Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessant said uh uh on aCNBC show that a uh trade aid uh
(13:44):
plan could be announced as soonas Tuesday next week.
Yes, that's it.
Yes.
And but I think the government'sgonna have to be open for them
to actually announce it.
But now hear me out on this one.
I think we're gonna have farmeraid in two phases.
Okay, one will be what the WhiteHouse eventually announces,
(14:05):
anywhere from 10 billion to 14billion dollars, and that'll be
primarily as a result of onecountry, China.
Because when you look at US agexports, they're tracking pretty
close for other countries,exports, but not to China.
So we could have an announcementof 10 to 14 billion dollars.
(14:27):
The Wall Street Journal reportedthat, but they're gonna call
that trade aid, but they'llprobably, when they do announce
it, put an economic spin on it.
Where they're going to get themoney, the funding, I think four
to five billion dollars willcome from the Commodity Credit
Corporation.
That's what remains, that's notobligated for other payments.
And yeah, they're gonna figuresome other way, and you know,
(14:50):
the government can look indrawers and five billions of
dollars to be blunt.
So it looks like 10 to 14billion dollars for perspective.
Uh first administration, Trump1.0, we had 12 billion dollars
in China trade war payments thefirst year, and then the second
(15:10):
year, 2019, we had 16 billion.
So a total of 28 billion, butthat was over two years.
So if the 12 billion dollars,you know, that's right in that
range, right?
The 10 to 14 billion dollarsthat the Wall Street Journal
speculated on based on sources,so it could be that now.
If it's China related again,soybeans, uh sorghum, and cotton
(15:36):
and some other come on cherriesin California will get payments.
I'm not so sure about corn.
We have record corn really,yeah.
I'm not quite, you know, thefirst uh trade war payments uh
corn, you know, yeah, carproducers didn't get hardly
anything.
SPEAKER_00 (15:52):
I mean, it was it's wasn't that something stupid
like a penny.
SPEAKER_02 (15:55):
It was, it wasn't that a cheap or or whatever it
was, it was yeah, per bushel andthat it was and something
similar to that.
So they would look to Congressuh for a another economic aid
package.
Remember, we had on December21st last year, Congress passed
(16:17):
uh twofold$10 billion ineconomic aid.
That was the ECAP program thatthey just paid the other 14% on,
uh 99%, and then they announcedaround$21 billion in ag disaster
payments.
Now, what's gonna happen isRepublican lawmakers are already
penciling out what they couldpropose, and I think it'll come
(16:40):
under probably Section 5authority under the Commodity
Credit Corporation when it'seventually done.
When will that occur?
I it's not gonna be right away.
I think it'll take until the endof year spending bill as an
add-on.
And I I've heard all sorts of uhlevels as far as aid, but it'll
(17:02):
be above whatever the WhiteHouse announces.
Okay.
SPEAKER_00 (17:06):
That'll be interesting.
SPEAKER_02 (17:07):
And but now then you have to see what will the
Democrats go along with that?
Or do will they want to extractappendages to that in order to
sign off on this additionalspending?
Now, I think farm statelawmakers from democratic states
should sign on, but will theleadership so that's not a
hundred percent that they canget that that types of billions
(17:29):
of dollars in phase two, eventhough I my hunch would say that
it'll eventually happen becausethe economic aid uh is there.
So two phases for farmer aid.
Yeah, there's the fearlessleaders and Dick Derman from
Illinois, Schumer from New York,and now the Republicans say the
reason why Schumer did not goalong with the clean um
(17:53):
continuing resolution or stopgap spending measure is he's
worried uh in 2028 when he's upfor re-election that he's gonna
be uh challenged by AOC, uhOcasio Cortez, and that's why
he's gonna appear to be verystrong against the White House
and against the Republicans inCongress.
(18:14):
So that's where we're atpolitically on this one.
SPEAKER_00 (18:17):
So very interesting.
I got a little breaking newstweet, if you don't mind me
interjecting here.
All right, I'll read it to thecrowd.
This is from Senator JohnHovind.
It's a little uh seven-minutevideo that was just released on
X.
It's time to end the Schumershutdown.
We need to reopen thegovernment, deliver disaster aid
to farmers, and push back onChina's pressure tactics.
(18:39):
Let's pass a clean CR and getback to work for the American
people.
That is Senator John Hovind fromthe great state of North Dakota.
Mr.
SPEAKER_02 (18:49):
Yeah, he's appropriate, he's big kingman
and appropriate checkbook in thepast.
Absolutely.
Let's go through that a littlebit now.
This is China, yes, becausethey're the reason for this.
And yes, Trump is going to meetas well.
We know now, at the end of thismonth at the in South Korea,
(19:11):
he's gonna meet with Xi Jinping.
Now, Scott Besson has alreadysaid that soybeans are gonna be
a big ask uh for by Trump, likesaying to China, you need to buy
some US soybeans.
My point in this is what's Chinagonna ask?
What does Xi Jinping want?
Because he's already given to adegree on TikTok, and if they
(19:35):
agree on purchasing U.S.
soybeans, how much, when, uhthat's still to be determined.
What's he gonna want?
SPEAKER_00 (19:43):
Very interesting.
SPEAKER_02 (19:44):
What's he gonna want?
And that could get intogeopolitics, it could get into
Taiwan, etc.
And even if we have a tradeagreement with China, I know the
last time how long that took toget it done.
So that's why this bridgepayment relative to China is
gonna have to take place.
Because when you negotiate withChina, the only country that
(20:06):
takes longer is India to get anyagreement, if you ever get an
agreement with India.
So that's what's in the making.
Now, if they were as a goodfaith going into this late
October, first few days ofNovember in South Korea meeting,
China could uh do a good goodfaith uh purchase of U.S.
(20:27):
soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (20:28):
Okay, that would be great.
SPEAKER_02 (20:29):
Yeah, it wouldn't hurt, but when do they need the
beans?
Because you know that uhcombination of Brazil and
Argentina, they're almost filledin their soybean needs almost
through the end of this year.
So we're really talking nextyear, Tommy, in my judgment.
Here's another side story.
Why has Scott Bessant, theTreasury Secretary, been so open
(20:53):
about this trade aid coming?
Well, he's he's one of the topeconomic advisors to uh Trump.
That's one reason.
But the other one is he's takenholy H from the proposed uh$20
billion bond swap to backstopArgentina.
Well, if you recall, we talkedabout that in the prior podcast
(21:15):
and said the American SoybeanAssociation was very upset about
saying, hey, wait a minute, butwhat about us?
You know, what about us?
Senator Chuck Grassley,Republican uh from Iowa,
lambasted like saying, you needto look to the U.S.
farmer.
I think uh Scott Bessett hasbeen so out in front because he
he wants to temper some of thenegatives that he's been getting
(21:38):
in the press about thatArgentine proposal.
So there's a cause and effecthere.
The other official from theTrump administration I really
listened to is uh the NationalEconomic Uh Council director,
Hassett, because he's he alsosaid this week that there's
(21:59):
billions and billions of dollarsis the exact quote that they uh
have in order to get atrade-related payment.
Now, here's another angle tothis trade aid, Tommy.
Again, we've talked a littleabout it in the past.
President Trump always says youcan tap the the uh the billions
(22:20):
of dollars in trade tariffrevenue that's coming in.
But when you look at the at thelegislation embodying that, it's
not necessarily the case whereyou can move that money from the
Treasury Department, that'swhere the tariff revenue goes,
into a direct farmer payment.
(22:40):
So I think that may needcongressional legislation,
unless they have very creativelawyers in the Trump
administration that has foundthat have found a way in order
to tap this trade uh revenue asa direct uh farmer payment.
I have my doubts, but I neverrule out creative lawyers.
SPEAKER_00 (23:04):
I like creative lawyers and accountants and
whatnot.
Hey, uh, we had a littlesurprise, Mr.
Wiesmeyer, this week.
The USDA really gave us, theysaid the American farmers are
awesome at growing corn, and wehave plenty of it.
SPEAKER_02 (23:17):
Yeah, they increased uh the 2024 crop a tad.
I think what 24 million bushels.
I may be wrong on that.
But then demand, remember,demand sometimes is subjective.
It's unlike soybeans where wehave data checks, but feed
demand and well, we have exportsdata check, it was less than
expected.
So stocks went up.
And look at here's the numbersthat you look at USDA at 1.53 to
(23:43):
billion bushels.
The average trade guesstimatewas around just shy of 200
million bushels less than that.
So USDA surprised on stocks tothe upside, they were higher.
Now that's a bearish number.
I don't care any way you look atit.
Now we we we went down for a fewdays, if I recall, but then
(24:05):
we've rallied back pretty good,Tommy, right?
Yeah, corn.
SPEAKER_00 (24:09):
Yeah, we've had uh, yeah, and soybeans actually
finished the uh week higher.
And corn and wheat looked overat soybeans going up and said,
Hell with it, we got to go uptoo.
So it was not a I gotta tellyou, Jim, with the United States
government closed, with Chinagoing on holiday next week, with
all the BS going on and withharvest going on, full-blown
(24:30):
harvest pressure.
The uh here's what's going onall across rural America, right
here.
I think grains did incrediblywell this week.
I I agree with you.
I think sometimes when guys likeyou and I get on, you know, we
could seem like we're down,government shut China, but
really there was a lot of greatthings that happened this week.
And depending on what politicalparty you're in or spin, yeah,
(24:53):
sure, you can make it seem likeAmerica, the world's ending.
But I gotta tell you something,Jim.
I went to Laney Wilson concertlast night in Nashville.
Yes, it was packed, it was soldout, and then Ella Langley.
SPEAKER_02 (25:05):
Yeah, I saw pictures of it.
SPEAKER_00 (25:06):
Ella Langley came on stage with her, jelly roll came
on stage with their Broadway waspacked.
How late it was packed, youknow, me being responsible,
knowing I had to film We SmaresPerspectives went home, but it
was going on.
America's booming.
Now, I'm sitting in downtownNashville in a high-rise.
That the American economy isgood, not for everyone, yeah,
(25:29):
but for a lot of us.
SPEAKER_02 (25:30):
Yes, my friend Sean Haney, I think you know him in
Canada.
He was at the concert last week.
Yes, uh, he sent me pictures.
Yeah, gun.
Is he still in town?
He he and his wife, he probablyis.
I think he because he wasn't onagri talk today.
SPEAKER_00 (25:46):
Let's post his number here on the uh bottom
give Sean Amy a couple.
SPEAKER_02 (25:51):
Here's the one on the on the corn.
See, I'm from Illinois, so Ihave to watch how I say corn
because Illinois says corn.
SPEAKER_00 (25:57):
Illinois, how many S's at the end of Illinois?
You never hear someone do that.
SPEAKER_02 (26:03):
I still say the kitchen zinc.
Okay, so that's my Illinoiscoming back at me.
But anyway, will we have anOctober crop production report?
Uh, it's looking less so becauseof uh, unless they there maybe
would be a chance that they hadan agreement over the weekend,
but I want to hear that fromNAS.
(26:23):
But it looks like uh thisestimate is as of October one.
So I I don't know how muchadvanced work that NAS did.
So we may not have an Octobercrop production report to see
whether or not the size of thatcorn crop has gone lower
relative to all these diseaseand other problems that the
(26:44):
general farm media are arepointing out, Tommy.
So that means the privateestimates not on site are gonna
be uh important, right?
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
Like ADP jobs report, for example.
SPEAKER_02 (26:57):
Yeah, yes, right, yeah, oh yeah, absolutely,
because we didn't have the jobsreport this morning.
I'm already geared up on alwaysgeared up on jobs report day to
have the impact short-term,long-term.
We we we didn't have it, soyeah, we're flying blind, and
that means the Federal Reservetoo, in their October Federal
Open Market Committee, but theyhave other data data sources.
(27:21):
So I I you know I think thatthey can do their work and the
the financial futures marketclearly signal another 25 basis
point cut in interest rates.
And I uh while that's not 100%given it looks to be the case
because the job job new jobs isa little weak right now because
(27:42):
of all the uncertainty.
I think once we get through thethe trade uh morass and these
tariffs, we get the SupremeCourt ruling on whether or not
Trump was on legal grounds to dothose uh tariffs uh because he
used emergency authority.
We'll know that either late thisyear or early next year.
We want a little more uhcertainty with US-China
(28:06):
relations.
You know, at least that's comingin the near horizon.
So once we get through withthat, then you're gonna see
businesses can plan, they canhire more people, they can come
out with different products.
But right now, I think a numberof companies are on hold,
wanting some answers.
SPEAKER_00 (28:24):
That makes sense.
That makes sense.
Let's head out to uh your buddyover here, Mr.
Newsom.
What's what's he what's gavinnewsome?
SPEAKER_02 (28:31):
Well, we have good news for corn because California
was the only state that had notapproved uh uh E-15.
We've got that out of the way.
Yeah, but now the the key thereis when will they actually sell
E15?
Do we have some of the reasonsin the in a in a chart or not?
SPEAKER_00 (28:52):
No, didn't didn't it didn't make the uh cutting room
as easy in Hollywood.
Okay, okay.
But I can read them to you.
SPEAKER_02 (28:59):
Would you like to well no let me go through the
the the big one isinfrastructure?
Most stations are not yetcertified.
I don't care what the carngrowers tell me, they're not
they're not yet certified, andcompatible hardware exists, you
well listed pumps and tanks, butapprovals, Tommy, and fire
marshal certifications arerequired.
(29:22):
That takes time.
Then another one is I have herecarbon environment review.
Well, the the refiners anddistributors, they have to
retool the blending storage forfor E15.
Some terminals have begun theupgrades, I was told, but
coverage is limited.
That takes time, but at leastit's in progress.
Pending EPA labels exist, butCalifornia specific dispenser
(29:48):
labeling has not yet beenfinalized by California's carb.
So now here's here's here's oneof the key California's carb is
going To have a meeting October14th, they set a workshop, so
we're gonna see how that turnsout because they're going to
(30:10):
have a public comment periodafter that workshop on E15.
And the public comment periodgoes from October 14th to
November the 12th this year.
What's the bottom line?
Why am I saying all this?
I I think it's gonna take into2026, maybe well into 2026,
before we see a significant, nowhear me correct, a significant
(30:34):
availability of E15 inCalifornia, which is a big
market, but it's coming.
We just but watch carb, watchcarb.
SPEAKER_00 (30:42):
That's interesting.
Yeah.
Real quick, while uh you werespeaking, we had some breaking
news.
I don't know how much you knowabout it, but we'll just talk
about it.
Trump considering uh significanttariff relief for uh U.S.
auto production, Republicansenator.
Uh, how would he pronounce it?
Morano says, Morano.
SPEAKER_02 (30:57):
Uh Trump Senator, yeah.
Well, because there's a numberof plants in Ohio, so I can
understand.
Uh Trump has got pushback undersome of the trucks and some of
the exemptions that he gave anumber of countries.
So he's having to uh double uphere and give financial aid to
certain of the uh uh autosectors, and that's a big, big
(31:19):
political importance in the uhmanufacturing, in the jobs, etc.
So I'm not surprised that thathe's doing some economic aid for
that sector as well.
SPEAKER_00 (31:30):
Yeah, absolutely.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, we're listeningto Weissmeyer's Perspectives.
I'm Tommy Grassaffee.
We want to take a moment forstation identification and
promote Mr.
Weesmeier.
I know you like him becauseyou're watching the show.
If you'd like to be on hisnewsletter right there,
Weismeyer at Gmail.
Handsome alert.
We'll get some sound effectswhere we ring a bell.
(31:52):
I might even have a bell.
Let me try.
Well, there you go.
We smire at gmail.
All right.
SPEAKER_02 (31:59):
And a number of listeners and viewers have
already uh asked me, andhopefully, if I haven't put you
on my list, you should begetting my newsletter.
If not, email me right back atuh the email.
That was my last name atgmail.com.
And this is my give back to theindustry that has been so good
to me for five decades.
SPEAKER_00 (32:19):
Absolutely.
Now, here's my little salespitch.
I got a new website up,www.agbull.com.
We do commodity brokerage and wehave an information video tech
service where we uh put out alot of other content.
You see Wees Meyer'sperspectives, but there's a lot
of videos we do that we don'tlet out to the general public.
And what that is called is thisservice right here.
(32:42):
You go to www.agbull and you goto agbull intel monthly or
agbull intel annually, and youcan get signed up for that.
I think it's pretty affordable,Jim.
I don't think that's asking toomuch for someone to pay$25 a
month.
SPEAKER_02 (32:54):
No, that's a lot less than my beer tab at my my
bar.
SPEAKER_00 (32:58):
I like that.
I like that.
Speaking of beer tabs and bars,back in the day when I was a kid
uh working at the Board ofTrade, remember the restaurant
series?
Yes, uh you used to just signyour bill and they would series
and traders and brokers at therestaurants, they would just
send you a uh a bill at the endof the month.
And no further bills.
There's nothing like thatanymore, huh?
SPEAKER_02 (33:20):
My local bar here, where we have what I call thirst
thirsty Thursdays, where I meetwith my city folk to try to
meet.
SPEAKER_00 (33:32):
Emergency uh meetings and Thursdays, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (33:34):
Yeah, but at least I walk to it, it's right around
the corner from my house.
That's called dangerous.
SPEAKER_00 (33:40):
Being responsible.
Hey, uh, real quick before weget out of here, is there
anything we could expect overthe weekend?
I'm gonna get the show bundledup.
It's Friday afternoon, it'll beout by 3, 3:30.
You can let all your goodlisteners and I want to thank
your listeners and viewers,they've been coming over to the
Eggbow Podcast, clicking,liking, and subscribing.
But good.
SPEAKER_02 (33:57):
There could be an agreement uh between the
Democrats and Republicans.
I'm not gonna rule that outbecause they're talking.
And you've heard me say before: as long as you're talking, (34:03):
undefined
there's a possibility ofsuccess.
And number two, we we may beable to find out more on this
coming trade-related aid to geta little bit more specific.
So there you listen to ScottBessent, you know, uh, and the
(34:24):
NEC director Hassett, and thenUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins.
I think uh just be on thelookout for some of those
comments.
But it's not a question of ifit's coming, it's when and and
how much and how they're gonnabe funded, as we've already
talked about.
And and then the second phase, Ithink is gonna be up to Congress
(34:46):
later this year under the trueeconomic aid, and then that'll
that'll cover a lot morecommodities.
I think this first one,trade-related, is gonna be
China-centric, and it's gonna befor those commodities who've
lost market share as a result ofChina pulling back from the U.S.
market, soybeans, sorghum,cotton, cherries, and a number
(35:08):
of other commodities.
SPEAKER_00 (35:10):
Very interesting.
Very interesting.
All right, we're gonna end theshow this way.
Look at that.
Do you love America?
I love America.
I love the stars, yeah.
If you uh if you listened allthe way to the end, you call
1-855-737-Farm or email us or goto www.agbull.com.
I got two free flags, three byfive American-made flags we want
to give away to the listeners ofWiesmeyer's perspectives.
(35:33):
And with that, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer is the star of theshow.
He came prepared.
Jim, I will see you next week.
If there's breaking news, folks,you've got to get signed up for
Jim's newsletter because he'llget it out to you.
He'll be pumping out content allweekend.
See ya, my friend.
See ya.
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