September 26, 2025 • 48 mins
Trade policy tensions create ripple effects across agricultural markets as Trump promises aid while China boycotts U.S. farm products. Secretary Rollins presents a five-part agricultural plan while a potential government shutdown threatens to disrupt essential services.
• Trump promises aid to farmers as a "bridge" until tariff policies take effect, though amount and timing remain unspecified
• Treasury Department's $20 billion bond swap with Argentina inadvertently facilitated China's purchase of 35 vessels of Argentine soybeans instead of American ones
• USDA Secretary Rollins announces $2 billion in "top-up" payments through ECAP, increasing allocation factor from 85% to 99%
• Rollins firmly states no plans for direct payments to the beef cattle industry to avoid market distortion
• Potential government shutdown would allow mandatory farm payments to continue but would prevent October crop production reports
• Input costs remain a major concern with fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32%, labor 47%, and interest payments 73% since 2020
• Food prices continue to rise, particularly beef, adding pressure on consumers and contributing to inflation concerns
• Gold, oil, and agricultural commodities show strength, potentially signaling inflationary pressures ahead
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:13):
What a week, what a week.
Tommy Grasafi, Ag Bull Media, AgBull Trading.
You're listening to the AgBullPodcast.
Well, I'd love to say you'rehere to see me, but I know
better than that because this isWiesmeyer's perspectives.
And I have the one and only Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
He's in the green room.
He's doing hair and makeup.
He wore his favorite blue shirt.
(00:34):
And I even think he has theshark, the shark shirt.
And you gotta be older to knowwho the shark is in golf.
You got your writer cup outfiton, don't you?
SPEAKER_00 (00:42):
Yeah, and I dress down for the occasion all the
time to the sixes, not thesevens.
Okay.
SPEAKER_01 (00:50):
Mr.
Jim Weeksmeyer.
I gotta tell you, we're gonna golong today.
I don't care what you say.
We're going long because it wasa crazy active week.
Um I've never seen you put outso much content.
What's with you?
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
It's just when it's market sensitive or policy
oriented, I've I've got to fireaway and I fired away.
SPEAKER_01 (01:10):
Yeah, and I'm just gonna promote the shit out of
you on this episode.
People want to know how they geta hold of you right there.
Weesmeyer at gmail.
SPEAKER_00 (01:18):
Not Jim, just my last name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01 (01:20):
Tell people how did you get the coolest Gmail ever?
SPEAKER_00 (01:24):
I was one of the first 250 or 150 on on Gmail, by
the way.
So I was early on.
SPEAKER_01 (01:32):
Yes.
Yeah, yeah, you're on.
You're on.
All right, we got to get in theshow, and we got some there's
some things going on in DC.
And I wanted to put it into apicture.
And if I if Tommy Grassaffi madea video to describe what's going
in DC, it would look like this.
(02:05):
Is that an accurate uh picture?
SPEAKER_00 (02:07):
Yeah.
Is that for Argentina orAmericans?
Uh we'll get into that later.
SPEAKER_01 (02:12):
That'll be after the commercial break.
All right.
I don't know why I'm happy.
I guess because I see you, but Iwant to thank a few people as we
start the show.
Of course, uh, my brother JoeGersafi sitting in the
background.
Of course, we got this young mannamed Dave who helps us load
this up.
He loaded this up from nineo'clock last night till one in
the morning.
And I tell you, he says, I loveloading up the Wees Meyer show.
(02:35):
I said, listen, it's the easiestthing I do all week.
Jim sends us the notes, you loadit up, we make pretty pictures,
we giggle, we laugh, and wedistribute it throughout uh all
our platforms.
With that, let's talk Trump.
SPEAKER_00 (02:46):
Here we go.
It was very important becauseTrump was meeting with the the
uh with Turkey's president atthe White House, uh Erica.
This young man right here, yeah.
That's him.
That's him.
And you see what uh Trump said.
He said, We're going to uhprovide some aid to farmers as a
(03:10):
bridge until his tariff actionsuh start being beneficial to the
U.S.
ag sector.
Now what's that mean?
SPEAKER_01 (03:20):
Be more specific.
SPEAKER_00 (03:22):
Well, in in his first administration, when we
have the US-China war, they usedthe Commodity Credit Corporation
$28 billion, by the way.
Yeah, it was very top heavy forsoybeans.
This time it's going to be morespread out, and we don't know
the funding mechanism.
It could be through, well, no,he actually said that the uh uh
(03:44):
he he said the tariff revenue,but the problem with that is we
may have to have congressionalauthorization.
Uh at least at least some peoplesay that.
I don't believe that.
I think within the parameters ofof uh of the current law that
they can do it.
And two, we have a pendingSupreme Court case that's going
(04:07):
to be heard in November andDecember.
That if it rules these tariffsare illegal, then the funds,
then the tariff funding has tocome back.
But they have other avenues thatthey can utilize to make these
trade mitigation payments.
So, bottom line, 100%.
We don't know when, we don'tknow how much, but farmers are
(04:32):
going to be paid a trademitigation pay uh payment to
offset some of the earlydownturn that we've seen as a
result of some of the initialtrade policy maneuvers by
President Trump, and thatincludes China, by the way, that
we'll get into.
SPEAKER_01 (04:51):
Okay.
And uh has it on halt.
What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00 (04:56):
Well, he he said the White House has the attention of
China just basically boycottingU.S.
farm products.
And when you look at soybeans,uh from 55 to 60 percent usually
of U.S.
soybean exports go to China.
And look at this, is this is nota ski slope here.
(05:19):
This is a chart that shows theirpurchases, and it's hurting that
soybean sector.
So yeah, uh absolutely so it'sgot the white uh uh Hassett, we
should say, is the uh he headsthe council of econom uh I'm
sorry, National EconomicCouncil, and he's very close to
(05:40):
Trump.
So he's got Trump's ear.
And this, I think, aided uhhimself and also USDA Secretary
uh Rollins, you know, BrookeRollins of telling us.
I know her.
SPEAKER_01 (05:50):
She looks like this, right?
SPEAKER_00 (05:52):
Yeah, absolutely.
But you mentioned Argentina.
That that was more than akerfuffle this week to you.
SPEAKER_01 (05:58):
Oh, whoa, always with the big words, the big
words, the big words.
SPEAKER_00 (06:03):
Every week you got a big word.
Can you spell that?
Now well, there's a lot of Fs init.
Now, the the problem withArgentina is Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessant, there he is,worked.
I don't think whether it's beenofficially announced yet, but uh
a a backstop to Argentina now uhto because their economy was
(06:26):
going downhill and also thecurrency.
So he worked out a 50, a 20billion, sorry, 20 billion
dollar swap, bond swap on that,and and it helped their
currency, it rallied.
And but here's the adconnection.
There's an ad connection toalmost anything.
After Argentina knew that theywere gonna get this aid, okay,
(06:49):
they they uh eliminated theirexport taxes.
Well that made their soybeansvery enticing to China.
They came in and bought a lotyou've got 35 maybe more.
35, yeah, so soybean vesselsequivalent to about four and a
(07:10):
half million tons of soybeans.
That's a lot of soybeans.
SPEAKER_01 (07:14):
Not from us, no competitor.
Zero, zilly.
Are you telling me?
Stop.
Are you telling me that theUnited States government just
funded and made the Argentine ageconomy better?
SPEAKER_00 (07:26):
Well, I don't know about better, but these are the
unintended consequences ofactions, and this is why the
U.S.
ag sector is supported more thansome people may think it should
be, because now it looks likeChina is covered on their
soybean needs, maybe until theend of this year.
(07:47):
And this is the time period,Tommy, in which China usually
and historically has come to theU.S.
Right because Brazil andArgentina 70% or more of their
imports uh of the from usbecause Brazil and Argentina is
planting their their new crop.
(08:08):
Well, this got Senator Grassleyvery upset, and he put out a uh
an X, a tweet of the old tweets,and gave the attention to the
White House saying, wait aminute, I don't like what you're
doing here.
I just did.
I kicked myself out of the showand came back in.
I got gonged on my own show.
(08:30):
I think we have the Grassleyquote.
SPEAKER_01 (08:33):
Oh, do we have the Grassly quote?
SPEAKER_00 (08:35):
There it is.
SPEAKER_01 (08:36):
Did he disappear there?
SPEAKER_00 (08:37):
Yeah, right there.
There's Grassley.
Yeah, read it out loud.
Basically, he said, You're gonnahelp bail out Argentina while
they take American soybeanproducers' biggest market.
We should use leverage at everyturn to help hurting our farm
economy.
Family farmers should be top ofmind in negotiation by the
representatives of the USA.
(08:59):
He's probably right there.
But that's why Trump said whathe did in the White House this
week.
That's why uh Brooke Rollins atUSDA said uh help is on the way
on that one.
So, yes.
SPEAKER_01 (09:12):
Crazy.
Hey, I think I know what'swrong.
My mouse is uh running out ofbattery, but if that happens
again, well, I I have the superawesome gaming mouse, but it
stays charged like three, fourdays.
Speaking of staying charged, ASAcritical of aid.
What's that mean?
SPEAKER_00 (09:28):
Well, what we just talked about on Argentina,
American Soybean Association'spresident came out and just
fired a really targetedstatement against the Argentina
aid and and and basically againtold the White House hey, the
we're more than upset here.
This this is hurting the U.S.
(09:49):
soybean sector.
SPEAKER_01 (09:51):
Oh, that's not good.
That's not good.
All right, but who could fix itall?
Who could fix it all?
Raleigh?
SPEAKER_00 (09:57):
Well, you know what you know when you're in trouble
when you have a five-part plan.
I learned that a long time ago.
SPEAKER_01 (10:04):
Doesn't China have a five-year plan?
SPEAKER_00 (10:06):
They have a five-year plan.
We have a five-part plan.
Pat Roberts, when he was uhRepresentative Roberts from
Kansas, then he was SenatorRoberts from Kansas, he was the
House Ag Committee Chairman,then the Senate Ag Committee
Chairman.
He would always say, you know,if things get rough, you better
in your back pocket have afive-part plan to get out of the
(10:28):
hole.
SPEAKER_01 (10:28):
Well, let's go over what this is, and I'm gonna
disappear for 30 seconds and goget the board, but you just keep
talking.
Go ahead.
SPEAKER_00 (10:36):
She was uh Rollins was in Kansas City at a at a
meeting, at an Outlook meeting.
And here's her plan.
And I'm gonna first say what thefive parts are one is relief for
farmers, two is driving downinput costs.
To me, the story of the year foragriculture is the input cost.
Three, expanding trade andmarket access.
(10:59):
We've talked about trade policyall for every podcast we've been
on, and she has she that's partof her plan.
Four is boosting biofuels andcommodity demand.
And of course, you need that.
Moer, even though we have recordcorn exports, we still have low
corn prices and soybeans we'vealready talked about.
(11:19):
And the fifth one is protectingU.S.
farmland and livestock.
Now, let's go it through very,very briefly, bullet by bullet.
For the relief for farmers, shementioned that the additional$2
billion, we call them top-uppayments in the ECAP would be
announced.
Well, they announced it thismorning.
(11:40):
If you recall, the economic aidprogram, ECAP uh ECAP, was
approved by Congress December21st last year.
Well, USDA previously paid out alittle over eight billion
dollars, but they had an 85%allocation factor to it.
Now USDA, and this is why wecall it top up, they're adding
(12:03):
14 percentage points to that,from 85 to 99 percent.
That's a chunk of change.
And and they're they're reallythey they released it today.
There's some nuances in it, butstill, farmers are going to get
the additional$2 billion, andthe payment factor goes from 85
to 99 percent.
SPEAKER_01 (12:24):
And then, real quick for the people in the back who
couldn't hear us, which is me,when I walked away for a minute,
where's this money come from?
SPEAKER_00 (12:32):
Well, this comes from the uh from the CCC, from
the Commodity CreditCorporation.
So it's it's there, and and itwas authorized by Congress in
the in the December 21st bill.
I don't know whether that was aseparate authorization or not.
I'm gonna have to double checkon that.
(12:53):
But anyway, she didn't mentionwhat Trump said at the White
House.
Remember, we we we we we talkedabout the trade mitigation
payment.
Usually farmers' emails came into me right away.
How much money are they talkingabout?
I have no idea how much or when.
I've heard I've heard levelsfrom anywhere from$12 billion to
(13:18):
$40 billion.
I I do think that they'll waituntil near the end of the year
in order to assess how did thecrop situation work out?
Do they have a trade agreementwith China by the end of the
year?
How are these other tradeagreements working out and
things like that?
So that's to be determinedlately.
(13:39):
That's the relief for farmers sofar, okay.
Two is driving down input costs,and she went through them.
Fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32percent, labor 47, interest
payments 73 since 2020, sincethe 2020.
Now it's back away.
(13:59):
But that tells you the costspiral vice that that that uh
that uh that farmers are in,primarily real crop, real crop
producers.
Now, here's what got the mostattention, Tommy.
She mentioned that there's a newUSDA Department of Justice
memorandum that's setting up anantitrust scrutiny of seed
(14:20):
fertilizer and markets.
Now, I personally think it'smore jaw boning.
I think that they wanted to getthat out, but it affected the
individual stocks that day thatshe announced.
SPEAKER_01 (14:34):
Oh, the fertilizer stocks explained and the seed
companies.
SPEAKER_00 (14:37):
I checked it right away four, five, six percent.
It hit them.
But uh so I think it's more jawboning, but at least they're
gonna look into this.
So that's again, that's coming.
And then she mentioned that theyended use of the farm labor
survey, they're gonna streamlinethe H2A guest worker program.
That's for for agriculture.
(14:58):
But point three, expanding tradeand market access.
And we've talked a lot aboutthis.
She mentioned also that the weekbefore she had a three-point
plant on trade.
SPEAKER_01 (15:09):
There's a lot of points here.
SPEAKER_00 (15:10):
Well, she's she mentioned the trade agreement,
seven trade agreements so farthat impacted agriculture, the
big ethanol uh sale in the inthe United Kingdom, the Japanese
trade agreement, etc.
And there'll be more to come.
Then boosting biofuels andcommodity demand.
That's that's their fourthpoint.
(15:31):
Now, they have been goodrelative to the renewable fuel
standard program.
We still have to see whatthey're going to do under the
reallocation on the SREs.
So, and the E-15, they gaveemergency waivers, but we're
still waiting on California'suse of E-15 if their governor
(15:52):
signs that bill.
We don't know whether he'll signit yet.
And she said they're immediatelygoing to purchase 470, 417,000
metric tons of U.S.
commodities for InternationalFood Aid.
They've already done that.
I think they made anannouncement.
They made an announcement thismorning.
Well, well, what's thatequivalent to?
(16:12):
16 million bushels of row crops.
That's that's the that's theit's it's a step in the right
direction.
So, and then five is protectingU.S.
farmland and livestock.
Now, this is where we get intoit.
Protecting U.S.
farmland, that's really China.
They're gonna they're stilllooking into how much land China
(16:32):
owns.
And I know Rollins was on theLaura Ingram show on five.
SPEAKER_01 (16:36):
I saw that one, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (16:37):
And Laura just really hit on that.
I mean, she's really anti-China,and she drilled in on that.
So they're they're they'recontinuing to check on that.
Then she mentioned the New WorldScrewworm, and she came out
after Mexico on that one.
She said basically they've beenthey haven't been doing their
job uh of uh checking the traps,uh watching them a little
(16:59):
closer.
So she gave more than a heads upto Mexico to uh work better in a
cooperative spirit.
Now, Mexico said they are, sobut it's what are they gonna
say, right?
Well, yeah, it's getting closerand closer to the U.S.
border.
We're 70 miles at last count.
So some people say it's just amatter of time before it gets
into the U.S.
(17:20):
I hope they're wrong on that onebecause we'll have trade uh
problems on that, and it's hardto get rid of once once you
know, once it starts.
But the biggest one on cattle iswhat kind of aid program are
they gonna have?
Now, you'll recall we talkedabout this last week.
SPEAKER_01 (17:40):
Yes, we did.
SPEAKER_00 (17:41):
Uh, and what she did say is which I I give her, I'll
give her a good shout out.
SPEAKER_01 (17:48):
We're talking about Secretary Egg Rollins here.
SPEAKER_00 (17:51):
Yes, she dismissed speculation that USDA would
subsidize producers to retainheifers rather than send them to
slaughter.
Here's her direct quote We seehow the government getting
involved can completely distortmarkets, and so currently there
will be no plan.
No plan is even underconsideration to insert
(18:13):
ourselves through payments intothe beef cattle industry.
Now, she said in the month ofOctober, they're going to
announce some things that willaid the livestock industry,
that's to be determined.
I think they're going to makesome more federal land
available, probably grazing andstuff like that.
(18:34):
But I think it's going to belimited.
There's not much the governmentcan do.
But let's go back to theno-direct payments to the beef
cattle industry.
I remember when President Reaganwas around and Dick Ling was his
USDA secretary, and theyannounced a whole herd uh dairy
buyout program.
(18:55):
And it was good for dairy, butwhat they didn't think through
is that they put a lot ofhamburger onto the marketplace
by the whole herd dairy buyout.
And that just caved in the beefmarket, especially the hamburger
market.
And uh National Cattlemen's BeefAssociation at the time was more
(19:17):
than upset.
And I think that's the historyof NCBA uh being very careful
about direct payments to thecattle industry.
In fact, for years, maybethey're that it it uh it's still
the place.
They didn't even want a title inthe farm bill for really for
cattle.
Yeah, they want hands off, handsoff.
(19:38):
So I think she went the rightway there.
However, on the other side,remember a week before Rollins
threw out that uh aid is comingfor the for the cattle industry.
Well, she set up expectations.
Here's why uh I mean, she'sdoing it for many reasons, but
President uh Trump uh a coupleof weeks ago was asked in the
(20:00):
White House about beef prices.
SPEAKER_01 (20:03):
I remember that.
SPEAKER_00 (20:04):
Yeah, he knew what Rollins did and USDA did, not
just Rollins, has it at the uhat the National Economic Council
on eggs.
Remember when egg prices were sohigh?
Well, she had a what's asomething point plan, probably
three-point plan.
And it did help.
It did help.
Now, Trump doesn't know the lifecycle of the cattle cycle, he
(20:25):
doesn't know it takes two tothree years, turnaround, and
things like that.
But he said at the time, we'regonna do something about beef
prices.
Well, her biggest constituency,Rollins, is her boss, Trump, and
that's why I think shegalvanized into action.
But her staff is uh uh I knowit's advising be very careful
(20:47):
what you do because you don'twant to follow up the
marketplace because we've got tojump in here as a broker.
SPEAKER_01 (20:54):
I gotta jump in here as a commodity trader and
broker.
We locked up all the back monthsof feeder cattle this week limit
up, and we have new expandedlimits.
It's not like the old days wherewe go up three, we went up 925
in feeders, and there washundreds of millions of dollars
exchanged hands just by that onecomment.
SPEAKER_00 (21:16):
See that it's that can happen.
Yeah, that but ag secretariesdon't realize their words have
market significance, but they dosomething like that.
SPEAKER_01 (21:26):
They do, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (21:27):
I mean let alone the president.
Can you imagine?
SPEAKER_01 (21:29):
The president does, so you have to be very careful.
Trading places in the orangelot.
Yes, true.
Speaking of trading places, wehad uh active this news came
out, but then we had uh hoginventories.
SPEAKER_00 (21:44):
Fewer of them, right?
And that's why you should havehad a bullish day today.
I didn't look at the verybullish inventory.
SPEAKER_01 (21:50):
Very bullish.
SPEAKER_00 (21:51):
You've got what lean hogs over a hundred dollars,
right?
SPEAKER_01 (21:54):
Yeah, when you get out to the summer months next
year, yeah.
Yeah, as a matter of fact, Italked to a few hog clients
today.
I don't do their risk, butthey're good friends of mine,
and they they are very active inthe hog business.
And they said uh it's kind ofmixed feelings.
They're like, Oh, we're gonnaowe a ton of money in margin
calls.
I'm like, are you rooting forthe market to go up or down?
What is it?
Like, if you produce hogs orbeef, you want the market to go
(22:14):
up.
But if you sell futures, as youknow, and that's why we got that
disclaimer here.
I'll run that disclaimer futuresand options have risk.
I also, on a side note, had acattle producer call me today.
He goes, What's going on?
Cattle are down several days ina row.
And I I hate to be sarcasticjerk.
I said, You know, cattle areallowed to go down, they can go
(22:37):
down.
Like I know you're in thebiggest bull market ever, but
you can't call the not you can'tcall the office whenever the
hell you want.
But if you want me to be allemotional because cattle went
down for a few days, look atwhere they've been.
SPEAKER_00 (22:48):
I mean, this is the biggest bull market in history,
and the longest, one of thelongest ones for at these
levels.
Now, let's connect dots here.
Okay, Trump said he wanted totake some action to lower beef
prices.
SPEAKER_01 (23:04):
Correct.
SPEAKER_00 (23:04):
Now, this is a sensitive issue.
You asked some U.S.
cattle producers, they don'tlike the possibility that he
will exempt Brazil from the 50%tariffs for them sending their
hamburger to us.
Right now, they're hit with that50% tariffs.
Now, at the United Nations onTuesday, Trump gave a rousing
(23:26):
speech.
He basically took the UnitedNations on and told them very
bluntly, as only Trump can,you're not doing your job.
SPEAKER_01 (23:32):
Oh, that was the day the teleprompter broke and the
escalator elevator broke, right?
SPEAKER_00 (23:37):
Yeah, and there was a third thing in there that
that's under investigation, bythe way.
Just odd.
SPEAKER_01 (23:42):
I don't know what the third thing is.
You have to tell me off thecamera.
All right, it sounds like adoozy.
SPEAKER_00 (23:46):
But if if that's one action he could take, because he
mentioned during his speech tothe United Nations General
Assembly that he had rightbefore he came on, he talked uh
a little bit with Brazil'spresident, and they're going to
quote meet next week.
I don't I don't know whetherit's a face-to-face or or a
(24:10):
virtual one or on the telephone,but that could be a possibility
of them further exempting someproducts.
Now, again, I don't think thecattle uh the people in the U.S.
want that because that thatwould be a little negative for
the uh hamburger market fortheir perspective, but it would
(24:32):
help the consumers, there's nodoubt about it.
SPEAKER_01 (24:35):
But we have to report both sides.
SPEAKER_00 (24:36):
Like absolutely, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (24:38):
We can't be the biggest cheerleaders here for
the cattle people and say uh 99%of America who doesn't want
higher beef prices.
Sorry, we're rooting for the 1%.
I mean, we're we're gonna gethate mail some candidates when
they say we're jersey.
SPEAKER_00 (24:50):
Well, especially with cattle, because you've got
the different uh components ofthe cattle industry, right?
Yeah, and so what's good for onemay be not good for another, you
know, the backgrounders, etc.
So yeah, yeah, and there'sthere's always volatile when it
comes to policy, but that issomething to watch out for next
(25:11):
week, Tommy.
Okay, when he meets withBrazil's president, however,
he's gonna meet.
Is hamburger gonna be uh exemptfrom the 50% tariffs, or will he
take them off?
Because before he put the 50%tariffs on, we had a surplus of
of trade with Brazil.
(25:32):
So uh he did it because ofemotion, because of what the
current president is doing toTrump's friend, the previous
president of Brazil.
Okay.
So we'll see what happens.
But that is a an element towatch for next week.
SPEAKER_01 (25:51):
All right.
This next headline, I thoughtwhen I first clicked it, it said
Trump, but that's not Trump.
SPEAKER_00 (25:55):
That's Prop 12.
But do we have food prices?
I think we have food price.
Let's go to food prices becausethat's a better fit.
We'll come back.
No, that's Prop 12.
Food prices?
I think we got well, we need totalk food prices.
Maybe we don't have it.
SPEAKER_01 (26:14):
Maybe we have the graphic.
We're gonna have to talk our waythrough it.
SPEAKER_00 (26:17):
Okay, well, the food price report came out this week
and it showed again furtherincreases in food prices at all
levels at home, especially atrestaurants, etc.
And when you look at the foodprice report, it was the beef
sector that really came up.
And and Trump seeing all thesestories, and that's really what
(26:38):
he just looks at headlines,probably put out those
statistics.
USDA.
They they do it every month,they put out a food price
update.
SPEAKER_01 (26:46):
And I'm sure the Federal Reserve looks at that,
like Greenspan would be USB.
Oh, they would they would lookat the Paul.
Right.
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
That's one, and oh yeah, they definitely, because
that's one of the things that uhtrade policy, the tariffs, and
food prices are two majorcomponents that's making Jerome
J.
Powell, the Fed chairman,nervous about uh sticky uh
inflation.
And when you look at USDA's ownnumbers, they don't show food
(27:16):
prices coming down.
Now the rate of increase is islower, but still you've got very
sensitive issues.
And it could play into the 2026elections, Tommy, for the House
and Senate, if the food pricesdon't come down uh much, because
I know that will be well uh oneof the key features.
SPEAKER_01 (27:39):
President Trump run ran on that.
That I'm gonna get the price ofoil and energy down, food costs
down, this down.
You know what he forgot tomention?
Electricity's exploded,insurance has exploded,
insurance on every facet, notjust what's insurance, mean your
home insurance, your autoinsurance, your health
insurance, any insurance, lifeinsurance has exploded.
(27:59):
And that's something that theyuh the the government can't hit
a button and say insurancecompanies lower that.
That the insurance companieswould be like, well, why are we
in the business of insuringpeople if we can't make a little
money doing this?
Right?
SPEAKER_00 (28:11):
This is why Democrats in their campaigning
are telling me one word isimportant to them now
affordability.
Can you afford can you affordthese things?
And it's getting harder andharder, and they're gonna have
increased pressure if we don'tlower interest rates.
What you had Brent uh crude oil,what$70 again?
SPEAKER_01 (28:33):
Yep.
SPEAKER_00 (28:33):
So that's that's on the right, and that's
geopolitics.
Yeah, that's what that ties intogeopolitics and the and the war
going on between Ukraine andRussia and Trump's dramatic
flip-flop.
Now he's uh more tilting farmore toward Ukraine.
And he realizes he'll never saythis, but uh Putin played Trump.
(28:54):
He shouldn't have believedTrump.
Uh, he shouldn't believe Putin.
Putin's a thug, he's a thug.
Uh uh and he believed he's fortoo long.
SPEAKER_01 (29:02):
Yeah, who knows where you live.
I know where you live, Jim.
We smile.
SPEAKER_00 (29:06):
The clock is ticking on me, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (29:08):
All right, let's go back to Triumph.
SPEAKER_00 (29:10):
I I was messing us up, and I didn't this is their
second attempt at taking on theProp 12, and that's the one
where you have to have certainsize cages for hogs.
Uh, it's called California.
Yeah.
And he said Congress has alreadyacted and regulates uh pork
production in in our country.
In other words, interstatecommerce, don't let California
(29:32):
dictate to us.
Now, the Supreme Court initiallyruled against the Farm Bureau
and National Pork ProducersCouncil in their in their charge
against California's Prop 12.
They lost that battle.
But within the ruling, JusticeKavanaugh, when you really read
the ruling, basically told thepork industry well, if here's
(29:57):
the way you should have done it.
So now Triumph now has filedanother case, and we'll see if
the Supreme Court takes that up.
SPEAKER_01 (30:08):
We're gonna see that be interesting.
That'd be interesting.
Like we didn't have enough onour plate.
Is the government gonna shutdown?
SPEAKER_00 (30:16):
You know, uh last week I would have said no, this
week probably so.
October 1.
Now, here's the situation.
The House, led by theRepublicans, approved a what we
call a stopgap spending bill ora CR continuing resolution until
November 21st.
(30:36):
That's not a long time, butstill they say that that would
give Congress enough time toapprove individual spending
bills.
There's 12 of them, the USDA'sone, Energy Department,
Interior, etc.
Now, when it went over to theSenate, they needed 60 votes,
and the Republicans only have53.
(30:58):
So they needed some Democratvotes, they didn't get them.
So that was defeated in theSenate.
And then also the Democrats hadan alternative that they wanted
till the end of October stopgapspending bill, and they want
more, a little over a trilliondollars in additional spending
(31:19):
on Obamacare, health careissues, yeah, uh more for
national public radio and thingslike that.
Well, that was a no-stop for theuh for the Republicans.
So where are we at?
Now, earlier this week, theOffice of Management and Budget,
led by Russell Volt, V O U G HT, came out and said, if there's
(31:41):
a shutdown of the government,we're going to have a uh not
just rifts, reduction in force,we're going to fire, if you
will, more than a few the uhgovernment people who are not
essential.
So the Democrats think that's athreat.
I'm not quite so sure.
(32:02):
So that that's the dilemma.
We have both sides digging in.
Let's just say at the 11th and ahalf hour they work a short-term
compromise to extend funding forwhatever time.
It's still gonna be an issue,Tommy, because whenever they
come back to the issue, you'regoing to have still the debate
(32:24):
over the spending levels andwhat far and things like that.
What I said earlier today onAgri-Talk is the solution was
appropriators and Congress, bothpolitical parties, both have not
done their job for years, finishthe individual appropriation
bills, and you wouldn't havethis mess at the end of the
(32:47):
fiscal year if Congress wouldonly do their job.
So if we do have a governmentshutdown, the hardest thing is
how do they come back afterafter both sides are so
entrenched?
And what's the impact on uh onagriculture?
Most of your payments, ARC, PLC,Conservation Reserve Program,
(33:09):
are mandatory programs andthey're not affected by a
government shutdown.
You still have to have people topush the button to send the
money, but it would affect thecrop production report in
October because NAS should begoing out probably Monday with
some of their surveys if theyhaven't done it a little
(33:29):
earlier.
And but if there's a governmentshutdown, you won't have an
October crop production reportbecause they won't uh the the
they won't have the ability toto to do the work.
So we may have to wait untillater on to get the next update
on the size of U.S.
corn soybeans and other crops,Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (33:49):
That'd be tough, right?
SPEAKER_00 (33:50):
That's all involved.
That's all involved.
Yeah, because now this it lookslike open sea, and and I mean
when you look at the weather,there's gonna be a lot of uh uh
you know, yeah, a lot ofcombines outside.
Hammered down.
Yeah, you're where you're here.
We go.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_01 (34:05):
Yeah, so we have all these bushels coming in, poor
basis, poor price.
We just cut a deal withArgentina, they sold a not a
boatload, like multipleboatloads of grain.
It's really upsetting people,Jim.
And I'll tell you, it is on thisshow.
I don't know if you look at theYouTube comments, but there's
some doozies, and folks, we wantyou to comment good, bad,
whatever.
We'll give them each a heart.
(34:26):
We don't care.
I mean, we we care you watch theshow and we care that you're
passionate.
There's a lot, I mean, you somepeople are beyond passionate,
they're angry.
Well, they're angry at thisadministration.
SPEAKER_00 (34:36):
Well, it you on the one side, you can't blame them
because on the trade policy,it's a high risk.
Now, I would say give it alittle more time, things like
that.
But I can hear them.
There, there's an element to belistened to uh out there.
They want trade, not aid, iswhat I hear all the time in my
emails when I go out and givespeeches, which by the way,
(34:58):
October 5th to the 8th, I'll bein Savannah, Georgia, one of the
towns I love the most.
And then at the crop insuranceuh agents meeting, SEPA on that.
But there is more than buildingfrustration in the uh ag circle.
There's a recession, more than arecession out there in the row
crop producers.
(35:19):
The story of the year so far,Tommy, is the input cost we
mentioned, seed, uh fertilizer,manufactur uh uh uh farm
equipment, etc.
That was well epidemic.
SPEAKER_01 (35:33):
Not going down.
I just recorded a podcast forthis with uh the land talker,
Jim Rothermick, and he said cashrents only went down a sliver
from last year, whereas theprice of the commodities has
gone down a bunch and theirinputs have gone up.
That's really hurting theAmerican farmer.
SPEAKER_00 (35:50):
Yeah, and see the the conundrum, if you will, is
when you offer aid to producersto the level that we're gonna
see multi-billion dollars, thatgets bit into land prices, cash
rents, etc., and input prices.
And that's uh you know, that'sthe dilemma that that what do
(36:12):
you do?
Now there's there's uh more thana few farmers now saying, you
know, maybe we just shouldn'thave all this aid.
But here's what they don't tellyou, Tommy.
It relates to food prices.
Why I say that?
If you didn't have nearly theamount of corn and soybean
(36:34):
acres, I mean, we're not gonnahave acreage idling program
again.
They can't by law.
The farm bill says no acreageidling program.
Now they can come in the backdoor with conservation types,
but they're not gonna do it.
But for those farmers, and Ihear you that say, you know,
boy, what it just all this aidgets built in to inputs, land,
(36:56):
cash rants, and things and youdon't let the market work in
that.
The reason is if this folds downwhere uh X number of acres are
not planted, then in foreignpolicy circles you food is
security.
It's national security too.
(37:18):
So you pay for it one way or theother, whether at the
supermarket are in taxpayerincome transfer payments.
Now, food is not cheap, but itwould be a lot higher than it
would be had if we don't supportthe aggregate farmer out there,
(37:40):
right?
Not the discussion, not some ofthe ones who can handle it,
right?
But the the probably themajority of farmers who are in a
cash flow bind.
That's really the reason.
And so as we connect dots here,you think the the Federal
Reserve wouldn't be interestedif if we're not gonna produce as
much, or the White House, ifthey see, hey, what if if we
(38:03):
throttle back here, it's gonnaelevate the food price
situation.
Then you would have the big uhfocus on agriculture again.
That's really why you spend alot a lot of money.
I don't have any qualms ofhaving taxpayer money go to the
ag sector.
I hear the other side in spadesthat say, let the market work.
(38:25):
But in this town, I rememberyears ago in a farm bill debate,
Pat Roberts had a freedom tofarm bill, but it was defeated
because Washington didn't allowfreedom to fail.
See, so if you don't let themarket work itself out, and it
takes a while for the market,market can be very brutal, as
(38:45):
you know, Tommy.
Very brutal.
They wouldn't allow that.
Washington wants winners,winners, they don't want winners
losers, and that's the that'sreally the whole issue that
we're talking about in one fellswoop as we connect dots here.
So that's why you huh?
SPEAKER_01 (39:03):
I want to connect one more dot.
Sure.
It's hard to get a word inedgewise with you, but that's
why I love it.
But you're gonna appreciatethis.
Doesn't this stem all the wayback to Dr.
Earl Butts 50 years ago?
We're gonna farm fence post tofence post.
And I quote him, he said,America's single greatest
advantage is what it pays forfood.
Back then we were paying 13% ofall Americans' income was going
(39:26):
to food.
That gives them more money tobuy houses, cars, educate, and
everything else at a time whenother nations were spending 50%
of their income on food.
The stage is yours, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (39:39):
Bingo.
And but if you yes, and if youincrease the food prices too
much, who does it affect themost?
The middle to low income people.
That's another reason why youhave income transfers for the ag
sector.
I'll go back to Earl Buttsbecause I was around when when
uh he when when he was uh agsecretary, I heard him give many
(40:02):
speeches and that.
He when he the exact quote thathe always gave, he said, you
know, I didn't tell farmers toplant fence row to fence row,
the market did.
And and what he says is themarket's fickle.
And I also remember him EarlButts when he went on meet the
(40:22):
press years ago.
Remember, this was under theReagan administration Nixon or
Reagan?
Nixon Nixon administration.
And when when he got on, and andthat's when the food prices were
going up, and Earl was a greatcommunicator.
He brought in a loaf of of uhwonder bread, a full loaf, and
(40:45):
he opened it up and he picked upone loaf of bread, and he
pitched the corner out of onepiece of bread, and he held it
up to the camera, and he said,This is what the U.S.
farmer gets from one piece ofbread.
It was very little, and so hemade his point.
(41:06):
Don't blame the farmer for uhoverall for food prices.
It's it's a it's a it's a it's agambit of reasons when food
prices go up.
SPEAKER_01 (41:16):
All righty, let's take it from the top.
I want to give away some stuff.
Heck of a show.
You're amazing.
Let's just do this.
Let's talk about you.
If you'd like to get uh Jim'snewsletter letter right there,
Jim.
It's Weissmeyer Gmile, and uh Ihave that popped up right there
because people are having aproblem.
It's a simple email, and uh, Iwant to just take a minute and
(41:36):
promote myself real quick.
The AgBull team has a reallygood uh series coming out, and
what it is is it's it's AgBull,it's premium.
It's it's what you get here whenyou uh subscribe.
And the Weissmeyer show is free,but we are partnering up with
some of the best names inagriculture, some of the best
minds, but that's behind it'sclosed.
(41:58):
You have to pay for it.
So it's$25 a month,$250 a year.
Uh, right before we started theshow, we had another uh premium
subscriber paid the$250.
Always makes me happy thatpeople are willing to pay for
content.
Go to www.agbull.com, look at uhag Intel premium stuff.
The jim weesmeyer's kind enoughto do this show and we put it
(42:19):
out there for public for thoseof you listening out on the uh
interweb.
Thank you for uh click, liking,and subscribe.
We're gonna take it from thetop.
I'm gonna start off with thisthis picture.
Does this guy have the Americanfarmers back?
SPEAKER_00 (42:33):
Oh, absolutely.
He does, in my judgment, becauseof what he said at the White
House, and he knows uh year inand year out election, year in
and year out, that uh 62 to 65percent of all rural voters,
that's just not farmers andranchers, rural vote uh votes
Republican.
Now, he's gonna be challenged,but for some of the reasons that
(42:54):
we've said food prices, the cashflow problem, etc., energy
prices, interest rates, etc.
So it's not a given.
SPEAKER_01 (43:04):
And and that leads me into this next slide.
Well, bear debate.
I want to talk about some of thethings that were bullish this
week.
We had cattle prices for themost part did pretty well.
They had extreme volatility,whether they're up or down in
the week.
The trend's still up.
Hog prices exploded, goldexploded, silver exploded, crude
oil at six-week highs, WallStreet still doing okay.
(43:26):
It had a couple down days, butoverall it's doing well.
To me, Jim, these areinflationary things.
If food prices go up, that's notthat big of a deal.
It hurts people, but whenenergies go up, that is such a
bigger component to inflation.
When you get energies going up,when you get food prices going
up, and then the feds loweringinterest rates.
(43:47):
You mentioned that word, which Idid know conundrum.
If I didn't know better, theymay be backing themselves into a
corner where the Americaneconomy is too hot, they're
lowering interest rates.
Could inflation roar its uglyhead?
I don't know.
SPEAKER_00 (44:02):
It's a because of stagflation.
Your growth is limited whereyour inflation stuff stays in
that two and a half to threepercent uh uh range, and that's
not good.
That's that's stagflation.
So we're in a pickle right now,and we're gonna have to see what
happens.
Maybe uh once the tax cuts comein and investment starts, and
(44:24):
some of this trade policy uhsome semblance of stability, if
it can, then maybe we can getthe U.S.
economy off and going.
But until now, what you justsaid, uh the safe haven is gold
and and other commodities.
You go to gold when when it's onuncertainty.
Look at the dollar, thevolatility of the dollar.
SPEAKER_01 (44:46):
You know what had a bad day yesterday.
Bitcoin was down 4,000 a coin,and and gold's still going up,
and Bitcoin's, yeah, whatever.
I mean, the the the the Bitcoinbulls have had their run.
Trust me, anyone who's investedin it doesn't have a day job
anymore, right?
I'm not bashing Bitcoin, butgold's really taken off.
All right, from the top, we gotI think the two biggest
headlines of the week are Trumpbucks.
(45:07):
We got that money coming to you.
I don't know when, but theytalked about it.
Rollins talked about it,President Trump talked about it.
And by far, the biggest thinghappening is the government's
promising us money, yet theymight shut down.
And this is what it looks like.
(45:33):
But I'll let you do closingthoughts, Mr.
Weesmeyer, before we get out ofhere to stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (45:37):
To show you the spread and the breadth of U.S.
agriculture, some of my emailscome coming in this week said,
Do you think that they can waituntil next year from a tax basis
to give us these payments?
That's just perspective.
Where I think the other sidesaying, I need cash flow, I need
(45:59):
it now.
That tells you the dilemma ofsome of these uh payments.
Overall, I would say lots ofuncertainty as we saw this week.
The lawmakers are in fisticuffsalmost, literally, with each
other.
And this is why Congress hassuch low approval ratings.
If we see the shutdown ofgovernment, I don't care whether
(46:22):
you're Democrat, Republican,Libertarian, etc., you should
shake your head and saying, whatin the Sam H is going on in
Washington, D.C.
As far as agriculture isconcerned, big harvest a
weekend, as we talked about.
I remember for years I would goto Buceris, Ohio.
(46:42):
My good friend, farmer friendBob Wagner, who's no longer with
us.
I would I would go and and andto his great family, and I'd
once again see the pleasures ofharvesting corn and soybeans.
I miss him and I miss doingthat.
But still, we're gonna see a lotof harvest, and that's the
(47:04):
positive side.
I don't care what politicalcorner you're on, farmers
produce.
SPEAKER_01 (47:09):
Well said.
All right, I got a three-pointplan here.
Tommy Grasafi Eggbow Media Eggbopodcast.
We're gonna give away Americanflags.
Had I got a case of flags, andevery week we're gonna give away
a few flags.
If you've listened to thispodcast at till the end here on
Apple or Spotify or wherever youenjoy listening to podcasts,
please do us a favor, click likeand subscribe, send this to a
(47:29):
friend.
Here's the number1-855-737-Farm, 1-855-737 Farm.
We're giving away three, threefree flags.
That's compliments of uh Mr.
Tommy Grossoffee and Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
You've been listening toWiesmeyer's perspectives, the
one and only Jim Wiesmeyer.
I knew we'd go long.
I don't know where he keeps allthat stuff in his head.
(47:50):
My mouse made it to the end.
Jim, next week's gonna beinteresting.
God willing, we'll be here totell the story.
Thank you, my friend.
Thank you.
What a week, what a week.
Tommy Grasafi, Ag Bull Media, AgBull Trading.
You're listening to the AgBullPodcast.
Well, I'd love to say you'rehere to see me, but I know
better than that because this isWiesmeyer's perspectives.
And I have the one and only Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
He's in the green room.
He's doing hair and makeup.
He wore his favorite blue shirt.
(00:34):
And I even think he has theshark, the shark shirt.
And you gotta be older to knowwho the shark is in golf.
You got your writer cup outfiton, don't you?
SPEAKER_00 (00:42):
Yeah, and I dress down for the occasion all the
time to the sixes, not thesevens.
Okay.
SPEAKER_01 (00:50):
Mr.
Jim Weeksmeyer.
I gotta tell you, we're gonna golong today.
I don't care what you say.
We're going long because it wasa crazy active week.
Um I've never seen you put outso much content.
What's with you?
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
It's just when it's market sensitive or policy
oriented, I've I've got to fireaway and I fired away.
SPEAKER_01 (01:10):
Yeah, and I'm just gonna promote the shit out of
you on this episode.
People want to know how they geta hold of you right there.
Weesmeyer at gmail.
SPEAKER_00 (01:18):
Not Jim, just my last name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01 (01:20):
Tell people how did you get the coolest Gmail ever?
SPEAKER_00 (01:24):
I was one of the first 250 or 150 on on Gmail, by
the way.
So I was early on.
SPEAKER_01 (01:32):
Yes.
Yeah, yeah, you're on.
You're on.
All right, we got to get in theshow, and we got some there's
some things going on in DC.
And I wanted to put it into apicture.
And if I if Tommy Grassaffi madea video to describe what's going
in DC, it would look like this.
(02:05):
Is that an accurate uh picture?
SPEAKER_00 (02:07):
Yeah.
Is that for Argentina orAmericans?
Uh we'll get into that later.
SPEAKER_01 (02:12):
That'll be after the commercial break.
All right.
I don't know why I'm happy.
I guess because I see you, but Iwant to thank a few people as we
start the show.
Of course, uh, my brother JoeGersafi sitting in the
background.
Of course, we got this young mannamed Dave who helps us load
this up.
He loaded this up from nineo'clock last night till one in
the morning.
And I tell you, he says, I loveloading up the Wees Meyer show.
(02:35):
I said, listen, it's the easiestthing I do all week.
Jim sends us the notes, you loadit up, we make pretty pictures,
we giggle, we laugh, and wedistribute it throughout uh all
our platforms.
With that, let's talk Trump.
SPEAKER_00 (02:46):
Here we go.
It was very important becauseTrump was meeting with the the
uh with Turkey's president atthe White House, uh Erica.
This young man right here, yeah.
That's him.
That's him.
And you see what uh Trump said.
He said, We're going to uhprovide some aid to farmers as a
(03:10):
bridge until his tariff actionsuh start being beneficial to the
U.S.
ag sector.
Now what's that mean?
SPEAKER_01 (03:20):
Be more specific.
SPEAKER_00 (03:22):
Well, in in his first administration, when we
have the US-China war, they usedthe Commodity Credit Corporation
$28 billion, by the way.
Yeah, it was very top heavy forsoybeans.
This time it's going to be morespread out, and we don't know
the funding mechanism.
It could be through, well, no,he actually said that the uh uh
(03:44):
he he said the tariff revenue,but the problem with that is we
may have to have congressionalauthorization.
Uh at least at least some peoplesay that.
I don't believe that.
I think within the parameters ofof uh of the current law that
they can do it.
And two, we have a pendingSupreme Court case that's going
(04:07):
to be heard in November andDecember.
That if it rules these tariffsare illegal, then the funds,
then the tariff funding has tocome back.
But they have other avenues thatthey can utilize to make these
trade mitigation payments.
So, bottom line, 100%.
We don't know when, we don'tknow how much, but farmers are
(04:32):
going to be paid a trademitigation pay uh payment to
offset some of the earlydownturn that we've seen as a
result of some of the initialtrade policy maneuvers by
President Trump, and thatincludes China, by the way, that
we'll get into.
SPEAKER_01 (04:51):
Okay.
And uh has it on halt.
What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00 (04:56):
Well, he he said the White House has the attention of
China just basically boycottingU.S.
farm products.
And when you look at soybeans,uh from 55 to 60 percent usually
of U.S.
soybean exports go to China.
And look at this, is this is nota ski slope here.
(05:19):
This is a chart that shows theirpurchases, and it's hurting that
soybean sector.
So yeah, uh absolutely so it'sgot the white uh uh Hassett, we
should say, is the uh he headsthe council of econom uh I'm
sorry, National EconomicCouncil, and he's very close to
(05:40):
Trump.
So he's got Trump's ear.
And this, I think, aided uhhimself and also USDA Secretary
uh Rollins, you know, BrookeRollins of telling us.
I know her.
SPEAKER_01 (05:50):
She looks like this, right?
SPEAKER_00 (05:52):
Yeah, absolutely.
But you mentioned Argentina.
That that was more than akerfuffle this week to you.
SPEAKER_01 (05:58):
Oh, whoa, always with the big words, the big
words, the big words.
SPEAKER_00 (06:03):
Every week you got a big word.
Can you spell that?
Now well, there's a lot of Fs init.
Now, the the problem withArgentina is Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessant, there he is,worked.
I don't think whether it's beenofficially announced yet, but uh
a a backstop to Argentina now uhto because their economy was
(06:26):
going downhill and also thecurrency.
So he worked out a 50, a 20billion, sorry, 20 billion
dollar swap, bond swap on that,and and it helped their
currency, it rallied.
And but here's the adconnection.
There's an ad connection toalmost anything.
After Argentina knew that theywere gonna get this aid, okay,
(06:49):
they they uh eliminated theirexport taxes.
Well that made their soybeansvery enticing to China.
They came in and bought a lotyou've got 35 maybe more.
35, yeah, so soybean vesselsequivalent to about four and a
(07:10):
half million tons of soybeans.
That's a lot of soybeans.
SPEAKER_01 (07:14):
Not from us, no competitor.
Zero, zilly.
Are you telling me?
Stop.
Are you telling me that theUnited States government just
funded and made the Argentine ageconomy better?
SPEAKER_00 (07:26):
Well, I don't know about better, but these are the
unintended consequences ofactions, and this is why the
U.S.
ag sector is supported more thansome people may think it should
be, because now it looks likeChina is covered on their
soybean needs, maybe until theend of this year.
(07:47):
And this is the time period,Tommy, in which China usually
and historically has come to theU.S.
Right because Brazil andArgentina 70% or more of their
imports uh of the from usbecause Brazil and Argentina is
planting their their new crop.
(08:08):
Well, this got Senator Grassleyvery upset, and he put out a uh
an X, a tweet of the old tweets,and gave the attention to the
White House saying, wait aminute, I don't like what you're
doing here.
I just did.
I kicked myself out of the showand came back in.
I got gonged on my own show.
(08:30):
I think we have the Grassleyquote.
SPEAKER_01 (08:33):
Oh, do we have the Grassly quote?
SPEAKER_00 (08:35):
There it is.
SPEAKER_01 (08:36):
Did he disappear there?
SPEAKER_00 (08:37):
Yeah, right there.
There's Grassley.
Yeah, read it out loud.
Basically, he said, You're gonnahelp bail out Argentina while
they take American soybeanproducers' biggest market.
We should use leverage at everyturn to help hurting our farm
economy.
Family farmers should be top ofmind in negotiation by the
representatives of the USA.
(08:59):
He's probably right there.
But that's why Trump said whathe did in the White House this
week.
That's why uh Brooke Rollins atUSDA said uh help is on the way
on that one.
So, yes.
SPEAKER_01 (09:12):
Crazy.
Hey, I think I know what'swrong.
My mouse is uh running out ofbattery, but if that happens
again, well, I I have the superawesome gaming mouse, but it
stays charged like three, fourdays.
Speaking of staying charged, ASAcritical of aid.
What's that mean?
SPEAKER_00 (09:28):
Well, what we just talked about on Argentina,
American Soybean Association'spresident came out and just
fired a really targetedstatement against the Argentina
aid and and and basically againtold the White House hey, the
we're more than upset here.
This this is hurting the U.S.
(09:49):
soybean sector.
SPEAKER_01 (09:51):
Oh, that's not good.
That's not good.
All right, but who could fix itall?
Who could fix it all?
Raleigh?
SPEAKER_00 (09:57):
Well, you know what you know when you're in trouble
when you have a five-part plan.
I learned that a long time ago.
SPEAKER_01 (10:04):
Doesn't China have a five-year plan?
SPEAKER_00 (10:06):
They have a five-year plan.
We have a five-part plan.
Pat Roberts, when he was uhRepresentative Roberts from
Kansas, then he was SenatorRoberts from Kansas, he was the
House Ag Committee Chairman,then the Senate Ag Committee
Chairman.
He would always say, you know,if things get rough, you better
in your back pocket have afive-part plan to get out of the
(10:28):
hole.
SPEAKER_01 (10:28):
Well, let's go over what this is, and I'm gonna
disappear for 30 seconds and goget the board, but you just keep
talking.
Go ahead.
SPEAKER_00 (10:36):
She was uh Rollins was in Kansas City at a at a
meeting, at an Outlook meeting.
And here's her plan.
And I'm gonna first say what thefive parts are one is relief for
farmers, two is driving downinput costs.
To me, the story of the year foragriculture is the input cost.
Three, expanding trade andmarket access.
(10:59):
We've talked about trade policyall for every podcast we've been
on, and she has she that's partof her plan.
Four is boosting biofuels andcommodity demand.
And of course, you need that.
Moer, even though we have recordcorn exports, we still have low
corn prices and soybeans we'vealready talked about.
(11:19):
And the fifth one is protectingU.S.
farmland and livestock.
Now, let's go it through very,very briefly, bullet by bullet.
For the relief for farmers, shementioned that the additional$2
billion, we call them top-uppayments in the ECAP would be
announced.
Well, they announced it thismorning.
(11:40):
If you recall, the economic aidprogram, ECAP uh ECAP, was
approved by Congress December21st last year.
Well, USDA previously paid out alittle over eight billion
dollars, but they had an 85%allocation factor to it.
Now USDA, and this is why wecall it top up, they're adding
(12:03):
14 percentage points to that,from 85 to 99 percent.
That's a chunk of change.
And and they're they're reallythey they released it today.
There's some nuances in it, butstill, farmers are going to get
the additional$2 billion, andthe payment factor goes from 85
to 99 percent.
SPEAKER_01 (12:24):
And then, real quick for the people in the back who
couldn't hear us, which is me,when I walked away for a minute,
where's this money come from?
SPEAKER_00 (12:32):
Well, this comes from the uh from the CCC, from
the Commodity CreditCorporation.
So it's it's there, and and itwas authorized by Congress in
the in the December 21st bill.
I don't know whether that was aseparate authorization or not.
I'm gonna have to double checkon that.
(12:53):
But anyway, she didn't mentionwhat Trump said at the White
House.
Remember, we we we we we talkedabout the trade mitigation
payment.
Usually farmers' emails came into me right away.
How much money are they talkingabout?
I have no idea how much or when.
I've heard I've heard levelsfrom anywhere from$12 billion to
(13:18):
$40 billion.
I I do think that they'll waituntil near the end of the year
in order to assess how did thecrop situation work out?
Do they have a trade agreementwith China by the end of the
year?
How are these other tradeagreements working out and
things like that?
So that's to be determinedlately.
(13:39):
That's the relief for farmers sofar, okay.
Two is driving down input costs,and she went through them.
Fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32percent, labor 47, interest
payments 73 since 2020, sincethe 2020.
Now it's back away.
(13:59):
But that tells you the costspiral vice that that that uh
that uh that farmers are in,primarily real crop, real crop
producers.
Now, here's what got the mostattention, Tommy.
She mentioned that there's a newUSDA Department of Justice
memorandum that's setting up anantitrust scrutiny of seed
(14:20):
fertilizer and markets.
Now, I personally think it'smore jaw boning.
I think that they wanted to getthat out, but it affected the
individual stocks that day thatshe announced.
SPEAKER_01 (14:34):
Oh, the fertilizer stocks explained and the seed
companies.
SPEAKER_00 (14:37):
I checked it right away four, five, six percent.
It hit them.
But uh so I think it's more jawboning, but at least they're
gonna look into this.
So that's again, that's coming.
And then she mentioned that theyended use of the farm labor
survey, they're gonna streamlinethe H2A guest worker program.
That's for for agriculture.
(14:58):
But point three, expanding tradeand market access.
And we've talked a lot aboutthis.
She mentioned also that the weekbefore she had a three-point
plant on trade.
SPEAKER_01 (15:09):
There's a lot of points here.
SPEAKER_00 (15:10):
Well, she's she mentioned the trade agreement,
seven trade agreements so farthat impacted agriculture, the
big ethanol uh sale in the inthe United Kingdom, the Japanese
trade agreement, etc.
And there'll be more to come.
Then boosting biofuels andcommodity demand.
That's that's their fourthpoint.
(15:31):
Now, they have been goodrelative to the renewable fuel
standard program.
We still have to see whatthey're going to do under the
reallocation on the SREs.
So, and the E-15, they gaveemergency waivers, but we're
still waiting on California'suse of E-15 if their governor
(15:52):
signs that bill.
We don't know whether he'll signit yet.
And she said they're immediatelygoing to purchase 470, 417,000
metric tons of U.S.
commodities for InternationalFood Aid.
They've already done that.
I think they made anannouncement.
They made an announcement thismorning.
Well, well, what's thatequivalent to?
(16:12):
16 million bushels of row crops.
That's that's the that's theit's it's a step in the right
direction.
So, and then five is protectingU.S.
farmland and livestock.
Now, this is where we get intoit.
Protecting U.S.
farmland, that's really China.
They're gonna they're stilllooking into how much land China
(16:32):
owns.
And I know Rollins was on theLaura Ingram show on five.
SPEAKER_01 (16:36):
I saw that one, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (16:37):
And Laura just really hit on that.
I mean, she's really anti-China,and she drilled in on that.
So they're they're they'recontinuing to check on that.
Then she mentioned the New WorldScrewworm, and she came out
after Mexico on that one.
She said basically they've beenthey haven't been doing their
job uh of uh checking the traps,uh watching them a little
(16:59):
closer.
So she gave more than a heads upto Mexico to uh work better in a
cooperative spirit.
Now, Mexico said they are, sobut it's what are they gonna
say, right?
Well, yeah, it's getting closerand closer to the U.S.
border.
We're 70 miles at last count.
So some people say it's just amatter of time before it gets
into the U.S.
(17:20):
I hope they're wrong on that onebecause we'll have trade uh
problems on that, and it's hardto get rid of once once you
know, once it starts.
But the biggest one on cattle iswhat kind of aid program are
they gonna have?
Now, you'll recall we talkedabout this last week.
SPEAKER_01 (17:40):
Yes, we did.
SPEAKER_00 (17:41):
Uh, and what she did say is which I I give her, I'll
give her a good shout out.
SPEAKER_01 (17:48):
We're talking about Secretary Egg Rollins here.
SPEAKER_00 (17:51):
Yes, she dismissed speculation that USDA would
subsidize producers to retainheifers rather than send them to
slaughter.
Here's her direct quote We seehow the government getting
involved can completely distortmarkets, and so currently there
will be no plan.
No plan is even underconsideration to insert
(18:13):
ourselves through payments intothe beef cattle industry.
Now, she said in the month ofOctober, they're going to
announce some things that willaid the livestock industry,
that's to be determined.
I think they're going to makesome more federal land
available, probably grazing andstuff like that.
(18:34):
But I think it's going to belimited.
There's not much the governmentcan do.
But let's go back to theno-direct payments to the beef
cattle industry.
I remember when President Reaganwas around and Dick Ling was his
USDA secretary, and theyannounced a whole herd uh dairy
buyout program.
(18:55):
And it was good for dairy, butwhat they didn't think through
is that they put a lot ofhamburger onto the marketplace
by the whole herd dairy buyout.
And that just caved in the beefmarket, especially the hamburger
market.
And uh National Cattlemen's BeefAssociation at the time was more
(19:17):
than upset.
And I think that's the historyof NCBA uh being very careful
about direct payments to thecattle industry.
In fact, for years, maybethey're that it it uh it's still
the place.
They didn't even want a title inthe farm bill for really for
cattle.
Yeah, they want hands off, handsoff.
(19:38):
So I think she went the rightway there.
However, on the other side,remember a week before Rollins
threw out that uh aid is comingfor the for the cattle industry.
Well, she set up expectations.
Here's why uh I mean, she'sdoing it for many reasons, but
President uh Trump uh a coupleof weeks ago was asked in the
(20:00):
White House about beef prices.
SPEAKER_01 (20:03):
I remember that.
SPEAKER_00 (20:04):
Yeah, he knew what Rollins did and USDA did, not
just Rollins, has it at the uhat the National Economic Council
on eggs.
Remember when egg prices were sohigh?
Well, she had a what's asomething point plan, probably
three-point plan.
And it did help.
It did help.
Now, Trump doesn't know the lifecycle of the cattle cycle, he
(20:25):
doesn't know it takes two tothree years, turnaround, and
things like that.
But he said at the time, we'regonna do something about beef
prices.
Well, her biggest constituency,Rollins, is her boss, Trump, and
that's why I think shegalvanized into action.
But her staff is uh uh I knowit's advising be very careful
(20:47):
what you do because you don'twant to follow up the
marketplace because we've got tojump in here as a broker.
SPEAKER_01 (20:54):
I gotta jump in here as a commodity trader and
broker.
We locked up all the back monthsof feeder cattle this week limit
up, and we have new expandedlimits.
It's not like the old days wherewe go up three, we went up 925
in feeders, and there washundreds of millions of dollars
exchanged hands just by that onecomment.
SPEAKER_00 (21:16):
See that it's that can happen.
Yeah, that but ag secretariesdon't realize their words have
market significance, but they dosomething like that.
SPEAKER_01 (21:26):
They do, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (21:27):
I mean let alone the president.
Can you imagine?
SPEAKER_01 (21:29):
The president does, so you have to be very careful.
Trading places in the orangelot.
Yes, true.
Speaking of trading places, wehad uh active this news came
out, but then we had uh hoginventories.
SPEAKER_00 (21:44):
Fewer of them, right?
And that's why you should havehad a bullish day today.
I didn't look at the verybullish inventory.
SPEAKER_01 (21:50):
Very bullish.
SPEAKER_00 (21:51):
You've got what lean hogs over a hundred dollars,
right?
SPEAKER_01 (21:54):
Yeah, when you get out to the summer months next
year, yeah.
Yeah, as a matter of fact, Italked to a few hog clients
today.
I don't do their risk, butthey're good friends of mine,
and they they are very active inthe hog business.
And they said uh it's kind ofmixed feelings.
They're like, Oh, we're gonnaowe a ton of money in margin
calls.
I'm like, are you rooting forthe market to go up or down?
What is it?
Like, if you produce hogs orbeef, you want the market to go
(22:14):
up.
But if you sell futures, as youknow, and that's why we got that
disclaimer here.
I'll run that disclaimer futuresand options have risk.
I also, on a side note, had acattle producer call me today.
He goes, What's going on?
Cattle are down several days ina row.
And I I hate to be sarcasticjerk.
I said, You know, cattle areallowed to go down, they can go
(22:37):
down.
Like I know you're in thebiggest bull market ever, but
you can't call the not you can'tcall the office whenever the
hell you want.
But if you want me to be allemotional because cattle went
down for a few days, look atwhere they've been.
SPEAKER_00 (22:48):
I mean, this is the biggest bull market in history,
and the longest, one of thelongest ones for at these
levels.
Now, let's connect dots here.
Okay, Trump said he wanted totake some action to lower beef
prices.
SPEAKER_01 (23:04):
Correct.
SPEAKER_00 (23:04):
Now, this is a sensitive issue.
You asked some U.S.
cattle producers, they don'tlike the possibility that he
will exempt Brazil from the 50%tariffs for them sending their
hamburger to us.
Right now, they're hit with that50% tariffs.
Now, at the United Nations onTuesday, Trump gave a rousing
(23:26):
speech.
He basically took the UnitedNations on and told them very
bluntly, as only Trump can,you're not doing your job.
SPEAKER_01 (23:32):
Oh, that was the day the teleprompter broke and the
escalator elevator broke, right?
SPEAKER_00 (23:37):
Yeah, and there was a third thing in there that
that's under investigation, bythe way.
Just odd.
SPEAKER_01 (23:42):
I don't know what the third thing is.
You have to tell me off thecamera.
All right, it sounds like adoozy.
SPEAKER_00 (23:46):
But if if that's one action he could take, because he
mentioned during his speech tothe United Nations General
Assembly that he had rightbefore he came on, he talked uh
a little bit with Brazil'spresident, and they're going to
quote meet next week.
I don't I don't know whetherit's a face-to-face or or a
(24:10):
virtual one or on the telephone,but that could be a possibility
of them further exempting someproducts.
Now, again, I don't think thecattle uh the people in the U.S.
want that because that thatwould be a little negative for
the uh hamburger market fortheir perspective, but it would
(24:32):
help the consumers, there's nodoubt about it.
SPEAKER_01 (24:35):
But we have to report both sides.
SPEAKER_00 (24:36):
Like absolutely, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (24:38):
We can't be the biggest cheerleaders here for
the cattle people and say uh 99%of America who doesn't want
higher beef prices.
Sorry, we're rooting for the 1%.
I mean, we're we're gonna gethate mail some candidates when
they say we're jersey.
SPEAKER_00 (24:50):
Well, especially with cattle, because you've got
the different uh components ofthe cattle industry, right?
Yeah, and so what's good for onemay be not good for another, you
know, the backgrounders, etc.
So yeah, yeah, and there'sthere's always volatile when it
comes to policy, but that issomething to watch out for next
(25:11):
week, Tommy.
Okay, when he meets withBrazil's president, however,
he's gonna meet.
Is hamburger gonna be uh exemptfrom the 50% tariffs, or will he
take them off?
Because before he put the 50%tariffs on, we had a surplus of
of trade with Brazil.
(25:32):
So uh he did it because ofemotion, because of what the
current president is doing toTrump's friend, the previous
president of Brazil.
Okay.
So we'll see what happens.
But that is a an element towatch for next week.
SPEAKER_01 (25:51):
All right.
This next headline, I thoughtwhen I first clicked it, it said
Trump, but that's not Trump.
SPEAKER_00 (25:55):
That's Prop 12.
But do we have food prices?
I think we have food price.
Let's go to food prices becausethat's a better fit.
We'll come back.
No, that's Prop 12.
Food prices?
I think we got well, we need totalk food prices.
Maybe we don't have it.
SPEAKER_01 (26:14):
Maybe we have the graphic.
We're gonna have to talk our waythrough it.
SPEAKER_00 (26:17):
Okay, well, the food price report came out this week
and it showed again furtherincreases in food prices at all
levels at home, especially atrestaurants, etc.
And when you look at the foodprice report, it was the beef
sector that really came up.
And and Trump seeing all thesestories, and that's really what
(26:38):
he just looks at headlines,probably put out those
statistics.
USDA.
They they do it every month,they put out a food price
update.
SPEAKER_01 (26:46):
And I'm sure the Federal Reserve looks at that,
like Greenspan would be USB.
Oh, they would they would lookat the Paul.
Right.
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
That's one, and oh yeah, they definitely, because
that's one of the things that uhtrade policy, the tariffs, and
food prices are two majorcomponents that's making Jerome
J.
Powell, the Fed chairman,nervous about uh sticky uh
inflation.
And when you look at USDA's ownnumbers, they don't show food
(27:16):
prices coming down.
Now the rate of increase is islower, but still you've got very
sensitive issues.
And it could play into the 2026elections, Tommy, for the House
and Senate, if the food pricesdon't come down uh much, because
I know that will be well uh oneof the key features.
SPEAKER_01 (27:39):
President Trump run ran on that.
That I'm gonna get the price ofoil and energy down, food costs
down, this down.
You know what he forgot tomention?
Electricity's exploded,insurance has exploded,
insurance on every facet, notjust what's insurance, mean your
home insurance, your autoinsurance, your health
insurance, any insurance, lifeinsurance has exploded.
(27:59):
And that's something that theyuh the the government can't hit
a button and say insurancecompanies lower that.
That the insurance companieswould be like, well, why are we
in the business of insuringpeople if we can't make a little
money doing this?
Right?
SPEAKER_00 (28:11):
This is why Democrats in their campaigning
are telling me one word isimportant to them now
affordability.
Can you afford can you affordthese things?
And it's getting harder andharder, and they're gonna have
increased pressure if we don'tlower interest rates.
What you had Brent uh crude oil,what$70 again?
SPEAKER_01 (28:33):
Yep.
SPEAKER_00 (28:33):
So that's that's on the right, and that's
geopolitics.
Yeah, that's what that ties intogeopolitics and the and the war
going on between Ukraine andRussia and Trump's dramatic
flip-flop.
Now he's uh more tilting farmore toward Ukraine.
And he realizes he'll never saythis, but uh Putin played Trump.
(28:54):
He shouldn't have believedTrump.
Uh, he shouldn't believe Putin.
Putin's a thug, he's a thug.
Uh uh and he believed he's fortoo long.
SPEAKER_01 (29:02):
Yeah, who knows where you live.
I know where you live, Jim.
We smile.
SPEAKER_00 (29:06):
The clock is ticking on me, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (29:08):
All right, let's go back to Triumph.
SPEAKER_00 (29:10):
I I was messing us up, and I didn't this is their
second attempt at taking on theProp 12, and that's the one
where you have to have certainsize cages for hogs.
Uh, it's called California.
Yeah.
And he said Congress has alreadyacted and regulates uh pork
production in in our country.
In other words, interstatecommerce, don't let California
(29:32):
dictate to us.
Now, the Supreme Court initiallyruled against the Farm Bureau
and National Pork ProducersCouncil in their in their charge
against California's Prop 12.
They lost that battle.
But within the ruling, JusticeKavanaugh, when you really read
the ruling, basically told thepork industry well, if here's
(29:57):
the way you should have done it.
So now Triumph now has filedanother case, and we'll see if
the Supreme Court takes that up.
SPEAKER_01 (30:08):
We're gonna see that be interesting.
That'd be interesting.
Like we didn't have enough onour plate.
Is the government gonna shutdown?
SPEAKER_00 (30:16):
You know, uh last week I would have said no, this
week probably so.
October 1.
Now, here's the situation.
The House, led by theRepublicans, approved a what we
call a stopgap spending bill ora CR continuing resolution until
November 21st.
(30:36):
That's not a long time, butstill they say that that would
give Congress enough time toapprove individual spending
bills.
There's 12 of them, the USDA'sone, Energy Department,
Interior, etc.
Now, when it went over to theSenate, they needed 60 votes,
and the Republicans only have53.
(30:58):
So they needed some Democratvotes, they didn't get them.
So that was defeated in theSenate.
And then also the Democrats hadan alternative that they wanted
till the end of October stopgapspending bill, and they want
more, a little over a trilliondollars in additional spending
(31:19):
on Obamacare, health careissues, yeah, uh more for
national public radio and thingslike that.
Well, that was a no-stop for theuh for the Republicans.
So where are we at?
Now, earlier this week, theOffice of Management and Budget,
led by Russell Volt, V O U G HT, came out and said, if there's
(31:41):
a shutdown of the government,we're going to have a uh not
just rifts, reduction in force,we're going to fire, if you
will, more than a few the uhgovernment people who are not
essential.
So the Democrats think that's athreat.
I'm not quite so sure.
(32:02):
So that that's the dilemma.
We have both sides digging in.
Let's just say at the 11th and ahalf hour they work a short-term
compromise to extend funding forwhatever time.
It's still gonna be an issue,Tommy, because whenever they
come back to the issue, you'regoing to have still the debate
(32:24):
over the spending levels andwhat far and things like that.
What I said earlier today onAgri-Talk is the solution was
appropriators and Congress, bothpolitical parties, both have not
done their job for years, finishthe individual appropriation
bills, and you wouldn't havethis mess at the end of the
(32:47):
fiscal year if Congress wouldonly do their job.
So if we do have a governmentshutdown, the hardest thing is
how do they come back afterafter both sides are so
entrenched?
And what's the impact on uh onagriculture?
Most of your payments, ARC, PLC,Conservation Reserve Program,
(33:09):
are mandatory programs andthey're not affected by a
government shutdown.
You still have to have people topush the button to send the
money, but it would affect thecrop production report in
October because NAS should begoing out probably Monday with
some of their surveys if theyhaven't done it a little
(33:29):
earlier.
And but if there's a governmentshutdown, you won't have an
October crop production reportbecause they won't uh the the
they won't have the ability toto to do the work.
So we may have to wait untillater on to get the next update
on the size of U.S.
corn soybeans and other crops,Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (33:49):
That'd be tough, right?
SPEAKER_00 (33:50):
That's all involved.
That's all involved.
Yeah, because now this it lookslike open sea, and and I mean
when you look at the weather,there's gonna be a lot of uh uh
you know, yeah, a lot ofcombines outside.
Hammered down.
Yeah, you're where you're here.
We go.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_01 (34:05):
Yeah, so we have all these bushels coming in, poor
basis, poor price.
We just cut a deal withArgentina, they sold a not a
boatload, like multipleboatloads of grain.
It's really upsetting people,Jim.
And I'll tell you, it is on thisshow.
I don't know if you look at theYouTube comments, but there's
some doozies, and folks, we wantyou to comment good, bad,
whatever.
We'll give them each a heart.
(34:26):
We don't care.
I mean, we we care you watch theshow and we care that you're
passionate.
There's a lot, I mean, you somepeople are beyond passionate,
they're angry.
Well, they're angry at thisadministration.
SPEAKER_00 (34:36):
Well, it you on the one side, you can't blame them
because on the trade policy,it's a high risk.
Now, I would say give it alittle more time, things like
that.
But I can hear them.
There, there's an element to belistened to uh out there.
They want trade, not aid, iswhat I hear all the time in my
emails when I go out and givespeeches, which by the way,
(34:58):
October 5th to the 8th, I'll bein Savannah, Georgia, one of the
towns I love the most.
And then at the crop insuranceuh agents meeting, SEPA on that.
But there is more than buildingfrustration in the uh ag circle.
There's a recession, more than arecession out there in the row
crop producers.
(35:19):
The story of the year so far,Tommy, is the input cost we
mentioned, seed, uh fertilizer,manufactur uh uh uh farm
equipment, etc.
That was well epidemic.
SPEAKER_01 (35:33):
Not going down.
I just recorded a podcast forthis with uh the land talker,
Jim Rothermick, and he said cashrents only went down a sliver
from last year, whereas theprice of the commodities has
gone down a bunch and theirinputs have gone up.
That's really hurting theAmerican farmer.
SPEAKER_00 (35:50):
Yeah, and see the the conundrum, if you will, is
when you offer aid to producersto the level that we're gonna
see multi-billion dollars, thatgets bit into land prices, cash
rents, etc., and input prices.
And that's uh you know, that'sthe dilemma that that what do
(36:12):
you do?
Now there's there's uh more thana few farmers now saying, you
know, maybe we just shouldn'thave all this aid.
But here's what they don't tellyou, Tommy.
It relates to food prices.
Why I say that?
If you didn't have nearly theamount of corn and soybean
(36:34):
acres, I mean, we're not gonnahave acreage idling program
again.
They can't by law.
The farm bill says no acreageidling program.
Now they can come in the backdoor with conservation types,
but they're not gonna do it.
But for those farmers, and Ihear you that say, you know,
boy, what it just all this aidgets built in to inputs, land,
(36:56):
cash rants, and things and youdon't let the market work in
that.
The reason is if this folds downwhere uh X number of acres are
not planted, then in foreignpolicy circles you food is
security.
It's national security too.
(37:18):
So you pay for it one way or theother, whether at the
supermarket are in taxpayerincome transfer payments.
Now, food is not cheap, but itwould be a lot higher than it
would be had if we don't supportthe aggregate farmer out there,
(37:40):
right?
Not the discussion, not some ofthe ones who can handle it,
right?
But the the probably themajority of farmers who are in a
cash flow bind.
That's really the reason.
And so as we connect dots here,you think the the Federal
Reserve wouldn't be interestedif if we're not gonna produce as
much, or the White House, ifthey see, hey, what if if we
(38:03):
throttle back here, it's gonnaelevate the food price
situation.
Then you would have the big uhfocus on agriculture again.
That's really why you spend alot a lot of money.
I don't have any qualms ofhaving taxpayer money go to the
ag sector.
I hear the other side in spadesthat say, let the market work.
(38:25):
But in this town, I rememberyears ago in a farm bill debate,
Pat Roberts had a freedom tofarm bill, but it was defeated
because Washington didn't allowfreedom to fail.
See, so if you don't let themarket work itself out, and it
takes a while for the market,market can be very brutal, as
(38:45):
you know, Tommy.
Very brutal.
They wouldn't allow that.
Washington wants winners,winners, they don't want winners
losers, and that's the that'sreally the whole issue that
we're talking about in one fellswoop as we connect dots here.
So that's why you huh?
SPEAKER_01 (39:03):
I want to connect one more dot.
Sure.
It's hard to get a word inedgewise with you, but that's
why I love it.
But you're gonna appreciatethis.
Doesn't this stem all the wayback to Dr.
Earl Butts 50 years ago?
We're gonna farm fence post tofence post.
And I quote him, he said,America's single greatest
advantage is what it pays forfood.
Back then we were paying 13% ofall Americans' income was going
(39:26):
to food.
That gives them more money tobuy houses, cars, educate, and
everything else at a time whenother nations were spending 50%
of their income on food.
The stage is yours, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (39:39):
Bingo.
And but if you yes, and if youincrease the food prices too
much, who does it affect themost?
The middle to low income people.
That's another reason why youhave income transfers for the ag
sector.
I'll go back to Earl Buttsbecause I was around when when
uh he when when he was uh agsecretary, I heard him give many
(40:02):
speeches and that.
He when he the exact quote thathe always gave, he said, you
know, I didn't tell farmers toplant fence row to fence row,
the market did.
And and what he says is themarket's fickle.
And I also remember him EarlButts when he went on meet the
(40:22):
press years ago.
Remember, this was under theReagan administration Nixon or
Reagan?
Nixon Nixon administration.
And when when he got on, and andthat's when the food prices were
going up, and Earl was a greatcommunicator.
He brought in a loaf of of uhwonder bread, a full loaf, and
(40:45):
he opened it up and he picked upone loaf of bread, and he
pitched the corner out of onepiece of bread, and he held it
up to the camera, and he said,This is what the U.S.
farmer gets from one piece ofbread.
It was very little, and so hemade his point.
(41:06):
Don't blame the farmer for uhoverall for food prices.
It's it's a it's a it's a it's agambit of reasons when food
prices go up.
SPEAKER_01 (41:16):
All righty, let's take it from the top.
I want to give away some stuff.
Heck of a show.
You're amazing.
Let's just do this.
Let's talk about you.
If you'd like to get uh Jim'snewsletter letter right there,
Jim.
It's Weissmeyer Gmile, and uh Ihave that popped up right there
because people are having aproblem.
It's a simple email, and uh, Iwant to just take a minute and
(41:36):
promote myself real quick.
The AgBull team has a reallygood uh series coming out, and
what it is is it's it's AgBull,it's premium.
It's it's what you get here whenyou uh subscribe.
And the Weissmeyer show is free,but we are partnering up with
some of the best names inagriculture, some of the best
minds, but that's behind it'sclosed.
(41:58):
You have to pay for it.
So it's$25 a month,$250 a year.
Uh, right before we started theshow, we had another uh premium
subscriber paid the$250.
Always makes me happy thatpeople are willing to pay for
content.
Go to www.agbull.com, look at uhag Intel premium stuff.
The jim weesmeyer's kind enoughto do this show and we put it
(42:19):
out there for public for thoseof you listening out on the uh
interweb.
Thank you for uh click, liking,and subscribe.
We're gonna take it from thetop.
I'm gonna start off with thisthis picture.
Does this guy have the Americanfarmers back?
SPEAKER_00 (42:33):
Oh, absolutely.
He does, in my judgment, becauseof what he said at the White
House, and he knows uh year inand year out election, year in
and year out, that uh 62 to 65percent of all rural voters,
that's just not farmers andranchers, rural vote uh votes
Republican.
Now, he's gonna be challenged,but for some of the reasons that
(42:54):
we've said food prices, the cashflow problem, etc., energy
prices, interest rates, etc.
So it's not a given.
SPEAKER_01 (43:04):
And and that leads me into this next slide.
Well, bear debate.
I want to talk about some of thethings that were bullish this
week.
We had cattle prices for themost part did pretty well.
They had extreme volatility,whether they're up or down in
the week.
The trend's still up.
Hog prices exploded, goldexploded, silver exploded, crude
oil at six-week highs, WallStreet still doing okay.
(43:26):
It had a couple down days, butoverall it's doing well.
To me, Jim, these areinflationary things.
If food prices go up, that's notthat big of a deal.
It hurts people, but whenenergies go up, that is such a
bigger component to inflation.
When you get energies going up,when you get food prices going
up, and then the feds loweringinterest rates.
(43:47):
You mentioned that word, which Idid know conundrum.
If I didn't know better, theymay be backing themselves into a
corner where the Americaneconomy is too hot, they're
lowering interest rates.
Could inflation roar its uglyhead?
I don't know.
SPEAKER_00 (44:02):
It's a because of stagflation.
Your growth is limited whereyour inflation stuff stays in
that two and a half to threepercent uh uh range, and that's
not good.
That's that's stagflation.
So we're in a pickle right now,and we're gonna have to see what
happens.
Maybe uh once the tax cuts comein and investment starts, and
(44:24):
some of this trade policy uhsome semblance of stability, if
it can, then maybe we can getthe U.S.
economy off and going.
But until now, what you justsaid, uh the safe haven is gold
and and other commodities.
You go to gold when when it's onuncertainty.
Look at the dollar, thevolatility of the dollar.
SPEAKER_01 (44:46):
You know what had a bad day yesterday.
Bitcoin was down 4,000 a coin,and and gold's still going up,
and Bitcoin's, yeah, whatever.
I mean, the the the the Bitcoinbulls have had their run.
Trust me, anyone who's investedin it doesn't have a day job
anymore, right?
I'm not bashing Bitcoin, butgold's really taken off.
All right, from the top, we gotI think the two biggest
headlines of the week are Trumpbucks.
(45:07):
We got that money coming to you.
I don't know when, but theytalked about it.
Rollins talked about it,President Trump talked about it.
And by far, the biggest thinghappening is the government's
promising us money, yet theymight shut down.
And this is what it looks like.
(45:33):
But I'll let you do closingthoughts, Mr.
Weesmeyer, before we get out ofhere to stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (45:37):
To show you the spread and the breadth of U.S.
agriculture, some of my emailscome coming in this week said,
Do you think that they can waituntil next year from a tax basis
to give us these payments?
That's just perspective.
Where I think the other sidesaying, I need cash flow, I need
(45:59):
it now.
That tells you the dilemma ofsome of these uh payments.
Overall, I would say lots ofuncertainty as we saw this week.
The lawmakers are in fisticuffsalmost, literally, with each
other.
And this is why Congress hassuch low approval ratings.
If we see the shutdown ofgovernment, I don't care whether
(46:22):
you're Democrat, Republican,Libertarian, etc., you should
shake your head and saying, whatin the Sam H is going on in
Washington, D.C.
As far as agriculture isconcerned, big harvest a
weekend, as we talked about.
I remember for years I would goto Buceris, Ohio.
(46:42):
My good friend, farmer friendBob Wagner, who's no longer with
us.
I would I would go and and andto his great family, and I'd
once again see the pleasures ofharvesting corn and soybeans.
I miss him and I miss doingthat.
But still, we're gonna see a lotof harvest, and that's the
(47:04):
positive side.
I don't care what politicalcorner you're on, farmers
produce.
SPEAKER_01 (47:09):
Well said.
All right, I got a three-pointplan here.
Tommy Grasafi Eggbow Media Eggbopodcast.
We're gonna give away Americanflags.
Had I got a case of flags, andevery week we're gonna give away
a few flags.
If you've listened to thispodcast at till the end here on
Apple or Spotify or wherever youenjoy listening to podcasts,
please do us a favor, click likeand subscribe, send this to a
(47:29):
friend.
Here's the number1-855-737-Farm, 1-855-737 Farm.
We're giving away three, threefree flags.
That's compliments of uh Mr.
Tommy Grossoffee and Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
You've been listening toWiesmeyer's perspectives, the
one and only Jim Wiesmeyer.
I knew we'd go long.
I don't know where he keeps allthat stuff in his head.
(47:50):
My mouse made it to the end.
Jim, next week's gonna beinteresting.
God willing, we'll be here totell the story.
Thank you, my friend.
Thank you.
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