October 10, 2025 • 35 mins
Washington stalls while markets swing, and we map how a shutdown, China tensions, and a stronger dollar hit soybeans, sorghum, and cotton. We outline SDRP Stage Two, likely top-ups, funding routes, and why APH-based aid makes more sense than production-based payments.
• USDA reports paused and payments delayed under the shutdown
• SDRP Stage Two timing, potential top-ups beyond 35 percent
• RFS and 45Z delays and what that means for crush and SAF demand
• China’s zero U.S. soybean buys and Brazil’s expanding share
• Sorghum export losses, cotton price pressure, acreage shifts ahead
• Dollar strength as a headwind for U.S. exports
• Why APH-based aid would avoid double penalties for producers
• Long game: diversify markets, expand domestic crush capacity
• Market tape: oil on peace headlines, equities correcting, gold bid on de-dollarization
USDA farmer aid coming, but what and when?
Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia
The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com
Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube
www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media
E-Mail tg@agbull.com
Thank you, Tommy G
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:13):
What a week, what a week, what a week.
Tommy Grossoffi, Ag Bull Media,Ag Bull Podcast.
We we're gonna bring him on herein a second.
The one and only Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
We're talking about Wiesmeyer'sperspectives, and this is gonna
be a heck of a show.
Now, before we start, I'd justlike to ask you one more time
like, subscribe.
The show is free.
Send it to friends.
How this day started is not howit ended.
(00:36):
Let's bring him in the show, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
He's just doing hair and makeup.
They say he's done.
He looks beautiful.
SPEAKER_00 (00:44):
As they say, a face for radio.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_01 (00:48):
I saw you taking a sip of your pop.
I'm like, I'll give him a littlemore sip.
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (00:52):
And I was at a crop, I was at a crop insurance agents
meeting in Savannah, Georgia,beautiful place.
And more than a few of theagents said they're now
listening or or watching thisprogram.
And some of them knew you,Tommy.
So I think we're getting aroundnow.
SPEAKER_01 (01:10):
They probably saw my picture at the post office.
We got a heck of a show.
Hey, I'll click the buttons, yoube the brains, I'll be the uh
I'll be the little clicker thatcould.
I do have a couple, uh I gotsome sounds loaded up, some new
stuff here.
But let's start with let's lookat here.
Should we start with that thethe government's shutting down?
SPEAKER_00 (01:31):
Yes, let's start with that.
SPEAKER_01 (01:35):
And why is Chuck Schumer back there?
Every day gets better for us.
What's that all about?
SPEAKER_00 (01:39):
Well, that's the spin by both political parties.
Now he's saying Chuck Schumer issaying, and the Democrats
believe that they're winningthis shutdown debate.
But you can see in that picture,that's his spin.
But then the Republican spin isby you not voting in the Senate,
the Senate Democrats, they needeight of those votes, by the
way.
(02:00):
They've got three or four bynow.
But you're you're hurting themilitary on pay and things like
that.
And so there's your spin on thatone.
And usually I'm asked, when isthis gonna end?
Both sides, Tommy, are dug in,and that means later rather than
(02:20):
sooner.
And we've already seen someimpacts.
There was no October cropproduction report or the WASDI
report on October the 9th.
There's no export sales reportson Thursday.
From a trading perspective, wewe didn't have the commitments
of traders report, and that's animportant one that people
dissect.
From a farmer perspective, we'vehad no farmer uh program
(02:43):
payments.
That's the ARC and the uh PLC,you know, you know, payments for
2024 crop.
But the big one is$1.8 billionis ready to be paid out for the
conservation reserve program.
And then the SDRP.
SPEAKER_01 (03:01):
I got that right here.
This one.
SPEAKER_00 (03:02):
Yeah, do the we've got two on them because a lot of
uh listeners to this podcasthave sent me emails about this.
Now let's go through that onebecause the they've they're
they're in the pro they paid outfive billion, has already been
paid out, but their programfunding is a little over 16
(03:25):
billion dollars.
Now, I've I've detailed the 2023loss and 2024 loss.
Now, most of the farmers arehave been asking me, well, what
about stage two?
And that's the next uh uh uhchart, Tommy.
Okay, that was supposed to comeout this week, but with the
government down, that's beingheld off.
(03:47):
So it'll eventually once theycome back, which we don't know,
probably by the end of thismonth, I would say that they
should be back.
We're gonna get the stage twopayment.
Now, go back to the first one.
What farmers really want is lookright in the middle.
The initial payment factor wasat 35% for the for the disaster
(04:10):
assistance program.
Well, that was pretty low.
Top-up payments are anticipatedfollowing stage two.
Now, I'd uh they could make themby the end of this calendar
year, but I think the top-uppayments, and I have no idea
what they'll be, maybe 55-60percent, from 35 to 55, 60
(04:31):
percent.
I hope they're higher.
They'll probably be paid eitherlate this year or I think more
likely in 2026.
And that should answer a lot ofthe questions I'm getting on
this.
Okay.
The SDRP stage two is going tobe announced when USDA comes
back, and that's gonna take sometime to implement, and then USDA
(04:56):
has to see how much is paid outunder stage two before they can
calculate a top-up payment forthe SDRP beyond the 35% level
that has already been paid.
And uh speculation only, itcould be in the 55 to 60 percent
area, but they've got a chunk ofuh funds to uh use that 16.09
(05:19):
billion dollars, of which only 5billion has been paid out.
So that's really SDRP, Tommy.
And then the other aspects ofthe government shutdown, it's
gonna delay the renewable fuelstandard program announcements
uh well into November, if notDecember.
And that's if you recall, that'sEPA has to make a decision on
(05:42):
the small refineryreallocations, what percentage
basis will be reallocated.
So that's gonna be held off, andalso important for oil seeds and
uh corn if it's an eligiblecommodity under the 45Z program.
Wow.
IRS they furlough around 50percent of the in internal
(06:05):
revenue service employees, soeverything's being held off.
So we're gonna delay some ofthese important farmer-related
uh uh you know programs bymonths, probably.
Wow, and and it's gonna be, andhere's the big one for farmers
you know listening it's gonnadelay the U.S.
farmer aid program that's partof the ongoing China trade war
(06:28):
now that we can you know getinto the U.S.
farmer aid.
Wow.
SPEAKER_01 (06:33):
And uh just to let folks, yeah, there it is right
there.
USDA farmer aid coming, but whatand when?
SPEAKER_00 (06:39):
Yes, that's the key.
Now we know through all thespeculation this week on this
program, Tommy.
I think it'll be between 12.5billion to 15 you know billion
dollars.
And I don't want to get toowonky now as far as where
they're finding the money.
It'll be a combination ofcommodity credit corporation CCC
(07:00):
money, four to five billion leftin that.
And also they have creativelawyers in any in any
administration, Democrat orRepublican, and they're good.
They they they there's billionsof dollars floating around in
government all the time.
SPEAKER_01 (07:15):
If you need money, you go to the Trump cash machine
right here, Department of theTreasury.
SPEAKER_00 (07:20):
Yeah, I don't think that they'll have an issue.
Now, here's another connectionwith the getting Congress back.
Okay the agricultureappropriations bill will be one
of the first bills that theyvote on, and that will likely
include a replenishment to offunding for the Commodity Credit
(07:42):
Corporation up to their currentuh maximum of$30 billion.
So watch for that.
That'll help fund uh this andother programs.
And then later on this year,calendar year, Senator Chuck
Grassley, Republican from Iowa,Holvin, Republican from North
Dakota, has more than signaledthat Congress is gonna attempt
(08:04):
another uh economic aid bill,like they did last year, if you
recall, December 21st, theypassed$10 billion in economic
aid and almost$21 billion indisaster aid.
So that's gonna wait until afteryou they come back.
Now, a lot of emails I get alsoon whenever the trade-related
(08:28):
aid program is announced byUSDA, again, it'll take the
government coming back becausethat's what USDA Secretary
Brooke Rollins said at the atthe cabinet meeting this week.
What commodities are going to beincluded, and how are they gonna
base the payment?
Now, I went back and looked atthe 2018 trade a China trade war
(08:52):
payment, and I couldn't believeit.
They paid it on actualproduction in 2018.
I think that was a stupidapproach because they should
base it on yield on APH, just inhistory, production history.
But why do I say that?
If you had a bad crop this yearand they base it on actual
production, well, you're hurtboth ways, so they should base
(09:15):
it on APH, but we're gonna see.
That's one of the things I'mgonna look out for.
Now let's go through some of thethe it's it's obvious that
soybeans have been the mostaffected.
You saw that in the marketplacetoday.
SPEAKER_01 (09:29):
And if we could start running those charts,
Tommy, okay, on on uh metalschart later.
SPEAKER_00 (09:39):
Oh well, let's bring up the metals chart first
because there's breaking, therewas breaking news this morning.
China came out, uh yeah, uhactually overnight their time
and said they were gonna puteven significant constraints on
the exports of their preciousmetal, you know, minerals.
(10:02):
Well, that was big because itgot and I knew it would get
President Trump more than upset.
He came out, yes, and and hecame out on true social and
said, not a good way to go, thatthey're mulling a big massive
increase in tariffs on Chinaproducts, and he pulled back
(10:24):
participating in a meeting withXi Jinping, China's leader, at
the end of this month or earlyNovember.
And that's what tanked early inthe morning.
Yeah, that's that's what uhyeah, you know, tanked it.
So so now it really what'shappening is both both leaders,
Trump and Xi Jinping, areflexing their muscles.
(10:45):
And uh, I think Xi Jinping wastest is testing Trump, but this
thing can get pretty negativebecause precious minerals are so
important in a potpourri ofproducts, uh cell phones, uh
defense uh equipment, cars.
So that could that that'llaffect the global economy if it
(11:08):
if it lasts very long.
So right now we have a battle ofthe Titan countries, the U.S.
and China, and that's not goodfor U.S.
agriculture because AmericanSoybean Association came out in
a statement and said they'rethey are more than concerned
about this because they werehoping that Xi Jinping and Trump
(11:30):
would indeed uh meet uh the lastday of October and the first
days of November at the Aegeanmeeting in South Korea.
Well, that could still happen,but not right now.
So that's that's where we're atgeopolitically.
They're they're firing shots atuh at each other.
But so that then that makes thecoming China trade-related aid
(11:53):
program even more important.
And now we can go through someof the commodities that's going
to be impacted by that tradeaid, Tommy, with the zero
purchases on uh yes.
You can see from this chart.
Uh look at the the bottom, theblue pre on the left-hand side.
That's what China had beenbuying from the U.S.
(12:16):
even in January, but it used tobe a lot higher, and we'll have
that chart later on.
But look at it's gone to zero.
Zero.
China has over 50% of all U.S.
soybean exports before.
Argentina recently sold them twoand a half million tons of
soybeans.
And in the usual time frame thatwe sell our beans to them, and
(12:38):
then go to the next one.
Yes, that that shows youvividly.
I mean, look at the far right,zero purchases, zero is not a
good number here, okay.
And look at 2018 and 2019, thatwas the time of the last US
China tariff war, and you cansee the uh impacts here.
(12:59):
Oh, yeah, that's that's and beand earlier this week, I talked
to a one of my best Chinawatcher sources, and he said,
until the Brazilian new cropcomes on, they're just planting
it right now, but until the newcrop comes on next year, he told
me China needs about seven toeight million metric tons of
(13:22):
soybeans.
Now, does that mean they wouldhave come to us?
Or they have 25 million tons ofsoybeans in reserve.
So they can they can last untilthe new crop beans come on board
after harvest in Brazil, uh,February, March time frame next
(13:42):
uh year.
It was expected prior to thisyou know fisticuffs you know
this morning between Xi Jinpingand Trump that that China was
going to make a token buy of uhthree to five million metric
tons of U.S.
soybeans at this at this meetingthey were gonna have.
Well, now that's up in the air.
(14:03):
So we know soybeans isimportant, China.
And let's go through some of theother crops, Tommy.
Uh sorghum.
I've said this on the airbefore, but now this is a
graphic that shows it.
Look at again, look at the farright.
We're down over uh about 2.3million metric tons.
Now, for sorghum, that's whytheir cash prices are just
(14:27):
sinking.
And then if that continues,that's gonna be more corn acres
in 2026.
So that's an impact on corn.
No one can tell me because youknow, we have record corn
exports this year.
That doesn't mean they shouldn'tget aid because they're being
impacted.
They're being impacted by theChina situation because they're
(14:49):
they're gonna get moreplantings, which already
happened this spring.
You probably have three to fivemillion more acres of corn
planted as a result of farmersseeing that a US-China trade war
was brewing again.
So that's sorghum, okay?
Yeah, that was a dramaticdecline.
Almost two billion dollardifferences in in exports to
sorghum.
(15:09):
Now they love our sorghumbecause of what they call bijju
beer, okay.
And I've drank it, I've drunk itover.
What's it taste like?
Ain't good.
It's it's very good.
Yeah, I didn't mind it.
Of course, I don't mindanything.
I drink agriculture's crops.
SPEAKER_01 (15:24):
I love it.
Hey, I want to give all ourlisteners a big thank you and
tell you this episode with TommyGrossaffi and Jim Weissmeyer
Weismeyer is heavy, heavy, heavyon charts.
And so if you're listening onSpotify, Apple, any of that
stuff, we love you.
But you might want to head overto the YouTube channel, click
like and subscribe because Mr.
Jim sent us a lot of charts andwe loaded up a lot of charts.
(15:45):
And this is before all heckbroke loose.
But upon recording this rightnow on Friday afternoon, the Dow
Jones is down 750 and theNASDAQ's down 750.
By the time we get this uploadedin an hour or two, it'd be
interesting to see where themarkets close.
It'd be interesting to see wherethe markets open on Sunday.
Now back to the show.
SPEAKER_00 (16:06):
And we'll explain what the charts mean too,
because I just said$1.8 billiondownturn in U.S.
sorghum exports to China, andthat that that's that's an
impact.
And that's why sorghum or Milo,whatever you want to call it,
they better be part of thispayment.
Now, the next one is cotton, andyou can see again in recent
years, China generally importedbetween two and five million
(16:29):
bales annually of U.S.
cotton.
But as the chart shows, that'svery, very minimal.
So the the loss of the Chinesemarket is a key factor, is why
we have cotton prices in themid-60s.
They're probably lower today.
I didn't look.
And and before, when Chinaimported three to five million
(16:49):
bales of U.S.
cotton, cotton futures averagedabout 90 cents.
So there's your impact from themid-60s to 90 cents.
That means cotton better get atrade-related aid payment.
Okay.
And again, I'll say even somefarm media says this will be a
(17:10):
bailout payment.
Oh my goodness, it's not abailout.
This won't even come close.
You've heard people say that.
Oh, I've seen it, I've seen itin print.
It just it's not a bailout,they're not going to be made
whole, and it's an insult.
It's an insult to uh say that.
SPEAKER_01 (17:25):
Now, then we have the next Debbie like saying if
you and I lost 10 pounds, wewere anorexic.
SPEAKER_00 (17:31):
My doctor, my doctor gave me some a uh artificial
intelligence pictures of me if Ilost 40 to 50 pounds.
He said, showed them to me.
He said, Did your hair growback?
I'm telling you, I don't I lookhot.
Well, no, he did one of them.
He made me bald, but I I meanI'm I I could go to Hollywood
(17:54):
after I'm like that again.
SPEAKER_01 (17:56):
But I digress.
We digress is right, but youknow what?
The craziness of today, we needa good chuckle.
That made me laugh.
So I mean production, my friend.
SPEAKER_00 (18:05):
That's a yeah.
What a lot of a lot of writersand analysts are not pointing
out is look at look at theincrease in Brazilian and
actually Argentina productionsince the last US China trade
war.
Look at Brazil.
I mean, it's it's in that 175million metric ton area where it
(18:28):
had been, let's see, right aboutwhat 120 million, you know.
So they got a lot more soybeansto sell in Brazil.
So it's just not a trade thing.
This is a production angle inBrazil.
That that's my point that yousee it graphically, but you can
(18:51):
hear it too.
And that was from the AmericanSoybean Association.
SPEAKER_01 (18:54):
Oh boy, I've been talking to my friends on the
soybean association.
They've been they are reallypulling hard for folks out
there.
SPEAKER_00 (19:00):
Well, and this is why.
Let's go through again.
You would have to you'll seethis, but monthly U.S.
soybean exports versus exportsto China.
It's just a sad tale from theyou know, the last year through
August this year.
I mean, it's L Zero at the endnow, but you can see how this is
(19:25):
dramatically impacting thesoybean export situation.
That's that one.
Then you can go through monthlyBrazil soybean exports versus
exports to China, and you cansee vividly, Tommy, how Brazil
is overtaking that market.
And so it's uh China's share ofUnited States and Brazil soybean
(19:48):
exports.
Again, Brazil now has a 73%market share, where uh the US
prior to this uh plummeting hadabout 52 percent.
So you can see where we used tohave a much higher figure, a
six.
(20:11):
We are now what's the long-termimplications?
Because you know, you with withthe two leading powers in the
world, U.S.
and China, I I think this isgoing to go on for certain
years.
This means that the so U.S.
soybean sector has to uh do acombination, they have to find
newer markets.
Uh, I know it's not enough toreplace the Chinese market,
(20:34):
maybe half of it that they lost.
But this is why we've increasedsoybean processing facilities in
order to get for renewablediesel, biodiesel, to do the uh
the renewable fuel standardprogram.
And whenever they get the 45Zsustainable aviation fuel
(20:55):
program going, this is thelonger-term development to keep
uh the soybean sector not at themercy of China buy.
So there's both short-term andlonger-term developments here.
And uh again, the other chartwould be total soybean exports
by the United States and Brazil,and and you can see Brazil is
(21:17):
now the by far the leadingexporter of uh of soybeans.
Where in 2011 the US bestedBrazil, not by much, but they
did in 2012.
That was a glory year in U.S.
agriculture, the nirvana.
We had a lot more soybeanexports to the world than Brazil
(21:40):
did.
But each year after that, Brazilincreased relative to the United
States.
So this is why prior at thecabinet meeting before you had
the blow-up uh between China andthe US, President Trump said he
was going to speak to Xi Jinpingabout buying U.S.
(22:03):
soybeans and uh and a goodlyamount, he said.
He didn't specify it.
Goodly, then a goodly amount,yeah.
And then huge, huge, as as Trumpwould say.
But this is why it just fellapart.
Now that doesn't mean they canpick up the peace, they can pick
up the pieces.
I've seen this one, they're tryprobably penetrating on this
(22:24):
one, and but that's where we'reat.
They're just flexing theirmuscles ahead of a the uh
possible meeting if it comes uhabout this year.
SPEAKER_01 (22:35):
So that's what I told clients today.
You know, folks who had soldsoybeans off the combine and
wanted to buy them back.
I said, You got beans down 20.
Sure, it looks like the world'sending today.
That that's today.
Where are we gonna be if SouthAmerica has a drought in a few
months, Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (22:50):
That's true.
And I was surprised it didn't godown more today.
So that you soybeans, yeah.
I I think that's a positivesignal, believe it or not, even
though down that much.
I I thought they would be downmore.
SPEAKER_01 (23:03):
Real quick note, just talking about let's talk
about markets at the end.
At the end of this, becausewe're gonna be done with slides
soon.
I want to kind of go through allthe markets, stock market where
they are, what happened inmetals, what happened in meats,
and everything else, and maybeyou could add a little color.
Uh, let's go to this next slide.
Dollar, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (23:18):
What do you mean here?
For well, for a while there, thedollar was down nine percent for
for earlier this year, andthat's usually good for exports.
But now the dollar index is ontrack to post its strongest
weekly advance in a year, risingnearly two percent.
That's a negative, by the way,to U.S.
commodities.
And you saw it in in commentaryyesterday that a number of
(23:42):
commentaries on corn andsoybeans said, well, we went
down today because the value ofthe dollar is is uh, well, they
said surging.
I don't think it was surging,but it's it's increasing.
And you can see for the future,the dollar sentiment chart turns
most bullish since April.
That means, yeah, that thatmeans uh the dollar uh could be
(24:02):
a drag on on uh thecompetitiveness of U.S.
farm exports, but it usuallytakes more than a few months for
a dollar value to have an impactone way or the other, helping or
hurting.
So this is maybe a tradingsituation right now.
So that's what I wanted to saythere.
And the last one I had down, uhTommy is my good friend John
(24:25):
Newton.
I think would he say the same?
Yes, he would.
SPEAKER_01 (24:30):
He would like this guy.
I like John Newton, very goodguy, and a great public speaker,
much like yourself.
SPEAKER_00 (24:37):
And he's great on charts.
I mean, wow, he's returning tothe Farm Bureau a dual role.
And I don't think out of all thedecades I've watched Farm
Bureau, I don't think they'veever combined vice president of
public policy and economicanalysis.
So he's gonna lead their FarmBureau's government relations
and advocacy staff while servingas the group's uh top economist.
(25:01):
And and I think they couldn'thave picked a uh a better
person.
He knows Farm Bureau, workedthere before.
He was the Senate Ag Committee'schief economist for Bullsbeck up
there.
Then he yeah, then he went overto terrain.
So we've got uh one of the besteconomists out there now at the
Farm Bureau, and I like that.
That's a good thing.
SPEAKER_01 (25:19):
He resigned from terrain.
SPEAKER_00 (25:22):
Yeah, he he resigned for I think he told me in an
email, maybe 10 days.
I think he'll be back over atthe farm bureau because he
wanted to make sure that I senthim my morning report at his new
email until he gets into FarmBureau.
SPEAKER_01 (25:39):
That's how I'm gonna eye on this guy, Mr.
John Newton.
And I I I he was on stage withDon Wick at uh the Big Iron Farm
Show in North Dakota, and hejust speaks so well, makes it
simple, doesn't speak above you,doesn't make you seem silly for
not knowing, and that's whatwe're here to do.
You and I are here to educate.
Speaking of your uh newsletterhere, let's get to the lightning
(26:00):
round.
There it is, right there.
Weismeyer at gmail.com.
If you'd like Jim's freenewsletter, go right there.
I got it running on the tickerright there.
Weismeyer at gmail.com.
And Jim will be.
SPEAKER_00 (26:19):
You know how that goes, Tommy.
And I'm more than willing to uhgive information out to the much
needy and good act sector.
SPEAKER_01 (26:28):
Yeah, I just want to take one minute to uh thank
everyone for watching.
We we just rolled out a fewweeks ago premium content.
We had because of your show,people sign up.
Weismeyer is free because of Mr.
Jim Weismeyer.
But uh, if you like additionalcontent from AgBull,$25 a month,
$250 a year.
I texted clients within twominutes of that news breaking.
(26:49):
I had a text out to AgBullclients, AgBull Trading, and
then this AgBull Intel service.
You can go to www.agbull.com.
Some people don't want futuresand options count, but they
still want to be in the know.
Does that make sense to you,Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (27:06):
I do.
I I think so.
SPEAKER_01 (27:08):
Or maybe they have a broker they like, right?
Hey, I've been working with thisguy for 20 years, but I like you
too.
I want to get on yourinformation research package.
So we're happy to provide thatat a uh affordable, affordable
price.
80 cents a day.
Speaking of 80 cents a day, Ijust found out, not that I
smoke, but I didn't realize thatcigarettes in some states are$15
(27:30):
a pack.
Used to be able to buy a cartonfor$15, Mr.
Weespire.
I I don't think the tobaccofarmers get all that money, do
they?
SPEAKER_00 (27:38):
No, I remember when I worked at my father's service
station, they were like 35 centsa pack.
SPEAKER_01 (27:44):
Did you ever sneak one or two?
SPEAKER_00 (27:45):
No, I never smoked one in in my life because my
father smoked way too much andit hurt his uh blood vessels, by
the way.
SPEAKER_01 (27:52):
You know who else didn't smoke?
President Well, PresidentClinton didn't inhale.
SPEAKER_00 (27:59):
Well, I said I didn't smoke cigarettes.
SPEAKER_01 (28:03):
All right, let's get in the lightning round.
Tommy Gersafi, Jim Wiesmeyer,cattle closed at all-time highs
today.
I don't know what they can sayabout it.
Just wow, wow, wow.
Upon filming this, the uh crudeoil is down 270.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer, that is five.
SPEAKER_00 (28:17):
Crude oil's down because of primarily because of
the unbelievable peace agreementuh between Israel and Hamas.
Now there's more to go, youknow, you can never trust Hamas,
but the the the big one was tostop the fighting and to release
those prisoners, hostages,actually, and that'll happen
(28:39):
Monday or Tuesday.
You know, you know, PresidentTrump said, but anyone has to
tip uh their hat or should toour president on that one
because he it was because ofhim, he he got all parties
together.
And frankly, I believe he whenhe said this could have
longer-term impacts, way morepositive than anyone realized,
(29:02):
where you could have peace,believe it or not, in the Middle
East, so that sector can growlike Saudi Arabia is growing.
I mean, if I wished I couldtravel as much as I used to, I'd
go over to Saudi Arabia becausesome of the architecture over
there is unbelievable, andDubai, etc.
So that's good news.
And from a crude oilperspective, that's really the
(29:22):
reason you're going down.
SPEAKER_01 (29:24):
Yeah, yeah, big moves there.
Stock market NASDAQ went fromseverely overbought to oversold
territory within two, threehours.
I just saw a tweet come out fromZero Hedge, and uh everyone's
complaining, oh, this damnNasdaq's overbought.
Well, not anymore.
No, if you're looking to buy adip.
Now, you said before we startedrecording, don't be surprised at
all if we see an eight to tenpercent pullback.
(29:46):
No, the Dow Jones is at 40,000.
If we say the Dow's down 800,that's not a stock market crash,
folks.
No, that's a two percentcorrection.
So think of things in percent.
That's my little advice for theweekend.
SPEAKER_00 (30:00):
And markets need to breathe.
So you have I've never worriedif in all my years of the equity
markets of a of an eight to tenpercent.
Once if it gets over tenpercent, you have to watch it a
little bit more.
But that helps evaluations andand things like that.
So and it was overdue becausewe've had a dramatic my 401k,
(30:21):
it's 501k.
So I can I can I can I can 401and a half K.
SPEAKER_01 (30:26):
Hey, speaking of investing and buying dips and
selling rips, did you ever meetWarren Buffett?
SPEAKER_00 (30:30):
Oh, yes, I did.
I've seen him at severalconferences than that.
He's the the Oracle of uh Omaha,just a wise man beyond his uh
means.
SPEAKER_01 (30:39):
Yes, yeah, absolutely.
All right, I got a couplequestions people texted before
we started the show.
How long will governmentshutdown last?
I know the prediction marketsare are are betting on this.
SPEAKER_00 (30:49):
Now they're the prediction markets keep going
longer and longer.
Uh I I don't think it's gonnawait until November 1.
The pressure is already mountmounting, and you can see it.
I will tell you what to watchout for.
I I hope it's it's done by theend of next week, next Friday,
(31:11):
but it could take another Fridayto do so.
But the pressure is there.
Uh, watch your uh airlineindustry.
Americans uh fly a lot, andyou're already starting to see
some some withdraw uh like uhcancellations or a slowdown of
the uh transportation people uhcalling in sick, Tommy, more
(31:34):
than average in a shutdown.
Well, then that backs up thewhole airline industry, and
that's that that's real bigpressure point.
One, two is the military, theyhave to uh work, but they're not
being paid.
And so that'll be a pressurepoint.
That'll be a pressure point asas well.
But it's really the AffordableCare Act or Obamacare, but both
(31:57):
one and the same.
The new enrollment period beginsNovember one.
So the Democrats want to extendthe COVID-related enhanced
Obamacare payments that total$185 billion.
That's wow, even in Washington,that's a lot of money.
(32:18):
And the Republicans say no.
Now they're talking behind thescenes of a possible compromise.
Well, that takes a while to geteverybody together.
So watch that issue.
But uh right now, both politicalparties are entrenched, so that
it's hard to predict when itwill end, and that's why the
(32:39):
markets, the the betting marketsare saying it'll be at least
another two weeks.
I hope they're wrong becausewe've already said from a farmer
perspective, the aid payments,etc., the farmer aid package is
now beholden until thegovernment uh uh gets there.
So a lot of things are startingto build on the pressure mounts.
SPEAKER_01 (33:00):
Ah, that's no good.
That's just no good.
Well, folks, if you'relistening, watching, drop a
comment.
You could you're probablywatching this on YouTube.
We'll put it on some othersocial medias.
We have Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
I am Tommy Gersafi.
Jim's coming to us fromWashington, D.C.
I am in Valparaiso, Indianatoday.
You're listening to the Ag BowlPodcast and uh little somber
Tommy.
We laughed a few times.
(33:20):
Very serious what's happening inthe markets.
SPEAKER_00 (33:23):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (33:23):
Last but not least, uh, because I want to do that
lightning round of talking aboutmarkets.
And a few times while we weredoing the show, I clicked on
some gold.
The gold market has been goingcrazy.
Last thoughts, Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
Stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (33:38):
China is a big participant in that gold market.
They keeps buying gold, and andfor this uh strategic reason is
that they have lowered theirpurchases or their dollar
accumulation by almost 50% overthe last few years, because they
don't want the US, if they wedid get into a conflict with
(34:00):
them, take their dollarholdings.
So that's one reason.
Also, when when China does that,it actually lowers the value of
their currency, the REMD or theYuan, which makes their products
that that much more competitive.
And gold is seen as a hedge forChina relative to their dollar
holdings.
(34:21):
So all that is involved, andmore from a speculative
perspective of why we've seen atremendous rally in the gold
price.
SPEAKER_01 (34:29):
I couldn't have said it better and didn't even
understand half of what yousaid.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, the show's beenWiesmeyer's Perspectus and uh
perspectives, and I'mTimakersafi.
I could barely talk because thishas been a wild one and the
markets aren't even closed yet.
We'll see you all real soon.
What a week, what a week, what a week.
Tommy Grossoffi, Ag Bull Media,Ag Bull Podcast.
We we're gonna bring him on herein a second.
The one and only Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
We're talking about Wiesmeyer'sperspectives, and this is gonna
be a heck of a show.
Now, before we start, I'd justlike to ask you one more time
like, subscribe.
The show is free.
Send it to friends.
How this day started is not howit ended.
(00:36):
Let's bring him in the show, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
He's just doing hair and makeup.
They say he's done.
He looks beautiful.
SPEAKER_00 (00:44):
As they say, a face for radio.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_01 (00:48):
I saw you taking a sip of your pop.
I'm like, I'll give him a littlemore sip.
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (00:52):
And I was at a crop, I was at a crop insurance agents
meeting in Savannah, Georgia,beautiful place.
And more than a few of theagents said they're now
listening or or watching thisprogram.
And some of them knew you,Tommy.
So I think we're getting aroundnow.
SPEAKER_01 (01:10):
They probably saw my picture at the post office.
We got a heck of a show.
Hey, I'll click the buttons, yoube the brains, I'll be the uh
I'll be the little clicker thatcould.
I do have a couple, uh I gotsome sounds loaded up, some new
stuff here.
But let's start with let's lookat here.
Should we start with that thethe government's shutting down?
SPEAKER_00 (01:31):
Yes, let's start with that.
SPEAKER_01 (01:35):
And why is Chuck Schumer back there?
Every day gets better for us.
What's that all about?
SPEAKER_00 (01:39):
Well, that's the spin by both political parties.
Now he's saying Chuck Schumer issaying, and the Democrats
believe that they're winningthis shutdown debate.
But you can see in that picture,that's his spin.
But then the Republican spin isby you not voting in the Senate,
the Senate Democrats, they needeight of those votes, by the
way.
(02:00):
They've got three or four bynow.
But you're you're hurting themilitary on pay and things like
that.
And so there's your spin on thatone.
And usually I'm asked, when isthis gonna end?
Both sides, Tommy, are dug in,and that means later rather than
(02:20):
sooner.
And we've already seen someimpacts.
There was no October cropproduction report or the WASDI
report on October the 9th.
There's no export sales reportson Thursday.
From a trading perspective, wewe didn't have the commitments
of traders report, and that's animportant one that people
dissect.
From a farmer perspective, we'vehad no farmer uh program
(02:43):
payments.
That's the ARC and the uh PLC,you know, you know, payments for
2024 crop.
But the big one is$1.8 billionis ready to be paid out for the
conservation reserve program.
And then the SDRP.
SPEAKER_01 (03:01):
I got that right here.
This one.
SPEAKER_00 (03:02):
Yeah, do the we've got two on them because a lot of
uh listeners to this podcasthave sent me emails about this.
Now let's go through that onebecause the they've they're
they're in the pro they paid outfive billion, has already been
paid out, but their programfunding is a little over 16
(03:25):
billion dollars.
Now, I've I've detailed the 2023loss and 2024 loss.
Now, most of the farmers arehave been asking me, well, what
about stage two?
And that's the next uh uh uhchart, Tommy.
Okay, that was supposed to comeout this week, but with the
government down, that's beingheld off.
(03:47):
So it'll eventually once theycome back, which we don't know,
probably by the end of thismonth, I would say that they
should be back.
We're gonna get the stage twopayment.
Now, go back to the first one.
What farmers really want is lookright in the middle.
The initial payment factor wasat 35% for the for the disaster
(04:10):
assistance program.
Well, that was pretty low.
Top-up payments are anticipatedfollowing stage two.
Now, I'd uh they could make themby the end of this calendar
year, but I think the top-uppayments, and I have no idea
what they'll be, maybe 55-60percent, from 35 to 55, 60
(04:31):
percent.
I hope they're higher.
They'll probably be paid eitherlate this year or I think more
likely in 2026.
And that should answer a lot ofthe questions I'm getting on
this.
Okay.
The SDRP stage two is going tobe announced when USDA comes
back, and that's gonna take sometime to implement, and then USDA
(04:56):
has to see how much is paid outunder stage two before they can
calculate a top-up payment forthe SDRP beyond the 35% level
that has already been paid.
And uh speculation only, itcould be in the 55 to 60 percent
area, but they've got a chunk ofuh funds to uh use that 16.09
(05:19):
billion dollars, of which only 5billion has been paid out.
So that's really SDRP, Tommy.
And then the other aspects ofthe government shutdown, it's
gonna delay the renewable fuelstandard program announcements
uh well into November, if notDecember.
And that's if you recall, that'sEPA has to make a decision on
(05:42):
the small refineryreallocations, what percentage
basis will be reallocated.
So that's gonna be held off, andalso important for oil seeds and
uh corn if it's an eligiblecommodity under the 45Z program.
Wow.
IRS they furlough around 50percent of the in internal
(06:05):
revenue service employees, soeverything's being held off.
So we're gonna delay some ofthese important farmer-related
uh uh you know programs bymonths, probably.
Wow, and and it's gonna be, andhere's the big one for farmers
you know listening it's gonnadelay the U.S.
farmer aid program that's partof the ongoing China trade war
(06:28):
now that we can you know getinto the U.S.
farmer aid.
Wow.
SPEAKER_01 (06:33):
And uh just to let folks, yeah, there it is right
there.
USDA farmer aid coming, but whatand when?
SPEAKER_00 (06:39):
Yes, that's the key.
Now we know through all thespeculation this week on this
program, Tommy.
I think it'll be between 12.5billion to 15 you know billion
dollars.
And I don't want to get toowonky now as far as where
they're finding the money.
It'll be a combination ofcommodity credit corporation CCC
(07:00):
money, four to five billion leftin that.
And also they have creativelawyers in any in any
administration, Democrat orRepublican, and they're good.
They they they there's billionsof dollars floating around in
government all the time.
SPEAKER_01 (07:15):
If you need money, you go to the Trump cash machine
right here, Department of theTreasury.
SPEAKER_00 (07:20):
Yeah, I don't think that they'll have an issue.
Now, here's another connectionwith the getting Congress back.
Okay the agricultureappropriations bill will be one
of the first bills that theyvote on, and that will likely
include a replenishment to offunding for the Commodity Credit
(07:42):
Corporation up to their currentuh maximum of$30 billion.
So watch for that.
That'll help fund uh this andother programs.
And then later on this year,calendar year, Senator Chuck
Grassley, Republican from Iowa,Holvin, Republican from North
Dakota, has more than signaledthat Congress is gonna attempt
(08:04):
another uh economic aid bill,like they did last year, if you
recall, December 21st, theypassed$10 billion in economic
aid and almost$21 billion indisaster aid.
So that's gonna wait until afteryou they come back.
Now, a lot of emails I get alsoon whenever the trade-related
(08:28):
aid program is announced byUSDA, again, it'll take the
government coming back becausethat's what USDA Secretary
Brooke Rollins said at the atthe cabinet meeting this week.
What commodities are going to beincluded, and how are they gonna
base the payment?
Now, I went back and looked atthe 2018 trade a China trade war
(08:52):
payment, and I couldn't believeit.
They paid it on actualproduction in 2018.
I think that was a stupidapproach because they should
base it on yield on APH, just inhistory, production history.
But why do I say that?
If you had a bad crop this yearand they base it on actual
production, well, you're hurtboth ways, so they should base
(09:15):
it on APH, but we're gonna see.
That's one of the things I'mgonna look out for.
Now let's go through some of thethe it's it's obvious that
soybeans have been the mostaffected.
You saw that in the marketplacetoday.
SPEAKER_01 (09:29):
And if we could start running those charts,
Tommy, okay, on on uh metalschart later.
SPEAKER_00 (09:39):
Oh well, let's bring up the metals chart first
because there's breaking, therewas breaking news this morning.
China came out, uh yeah, uhactually overnight their time
and said they were gonna puteven significant constraints on
the exports of their preciousmetal, you know, minerals.
(10:02):
Well, that was big because itgot and I knew it would get
President Trump more than upset.
He came out, yes, and and hecame out on true social and
said, not a good way to go, thatthey're mulling a big massive
increase in tariffs on Chinaproducts, and he pulled back
(10:24):
participating in a meeting withXi Jinping, China's leader, at
the end of this month or earlyNovember.
And that's what tanked early inthe morning.
Yeah, that's that's what uhyeah, you know, tanked it.
So so now it really what'shappening is both both leaders,
Trump and Xi Jinping, areflexing their muscles.
(10:45):
And uh, I think Xi Jinping wastest is testing Trump, but this
thing can get pretty negativebecause precious minerals are so
important in a potpourri ofproducts, uh cell phones, uh
defense uh equipment, cars.
So that could that that'llaffect the global economy if it
(11:08):
if it lasts very long.
So right now we have a battle ofthe Titan countries, the U.S.
and China, and that's not goodfor U.S.
agriculture because AmericanSoybean Association came out in
a statement and said they'rethey are more than concerned
about this because they werehoping that Xi Jinping and Trump
(11:30):
would indeed uh meet uh the lastday of October and the first
days of November at the Aegeanmeeting in South Korea.
Well, that could still happen,but not right now.
So that's that's where we're atgeopolitically.
They're they're firing shots atuh at each other.
But so that then that makes thecoming China trade-related aid
(11:53):
program even more important.
And now we can go through someof the commodities that's going
to be impacted by that tradeaid, Tommy, with the zero
purchases on uh yes.
You can see from this chart.
Uh look at the the bottom, theblue pre on the left-hand side.
That's what China had beenbuying from the U.S.
(12:16):
even in January, but it used tobe a lot higher, and we'll have
that chart later on.
But look at it's gone to zero.
Zero.
China has over 50% of all U.S.
soybean exports before.
Argentina recently sold them twoand a half million tons of
soybeans.
And in the usual time frame thatwe sell our beans to them, and
(12:38):
then go to the next one.
Yes, that that shows youvividly.
I mean, look at the far right,zero purchases, zero is not a
good number here, okay.
And look at 2018 and 2019, thatwas the time of the last US
China tariff war, and you cansee the uh impacts here.
(12:59):
Oh, yeah, that's that's and beand earlier this week, I talked
to a one of my best Chinawatcher sources, and he said,
until the Brazilian new cropcomes on, they're just planting
it right now, but until the newcrop comes on next year, he told
me China needs about seven toeight million metric tons of
(13:22):
soybeans.
Now, does that mean they wouldhave come to us?
Or they have 25 million tons ofsoybeans in reserve.
So they can they can last untilthe new crop beans come on board
after harvest in Brazil, uh,February, March time frame next
(13:42):
uh year.
It was expected prior to thisyou know fisticuffs you know
this morning between Xi Jinpingand Trump that that China was
going to make a token buy of uhthree to five million metric
tons of U.S.
soybeans at this at this meetingthey were gonna have.
Well, now that's up in the air.
(14:03):
So we know soybeans isimportant, China.
And let's go through some of theother crops, Tommy.
Uh sorghum.
I've said this on the airbefore, but now this is a
graphic that shows it.
Look at again, look at the farright.
We're down over uh about 2.3million metric tons.
Now, for sorghum, that's whytheir cash prices are just
(14:27):
sinking.
And then if that continues,that's gonna be more corn acres
in 2026.
So that's an impact on corn.
No one can tell me because youknow, we have record corn
exports this year.
That doesn't mean they shouldn'tget aid because they're being
impacted.
They're being impacted by theChina situation because they're
(14:49):
they're gonna get moreplantings, which already
happened this spring.
You probably have three to fivemillion more acres of corn
planted as a result of farmersseeing that a US-China trade war
was brewing again.
So that's sorghum, okay?
Yeah, that was a dramaticdecline.
Almost two billion dollardifferences in in exports to
sorghum.
(15:09):
Now they love our sorghumbecause of what they call bijju
beer, okay.
And I've drank it, I've drunk itover.
What's it taste like?
Ain't good.
It's it's very good.
Yeah, I didn't mind it.
Of course, I don't mindanything.
I drink agriculture's crops.
SPEAKER_01 (15:24):
I love it.
Hey, I want to give all ourlisteners a big thank you and
tell you this episode with TommyGrossaffi and Jim Weissmeyer
Weismeyer is heavy, heavy, heavyon charts.
And so if you're listening onSpotify, Apple, any of that
stuff, we love you.
But you might want to head overto the YouTube channel, click
like and subscribe because Mr.
Jim sent us a lot of charts andwe loaded up a lot of charts.
(15:45):
And this is before all heckbroke loose.
But upon recording this rightnow on Friday afternoon, the Dow
Jones is down 750 and theNASDAQ's down 750.
By the time we get this uploadedin an hour or two, it'd be
interesting to see where themarkets close.
It'd be interesting to see wherethe markets open on Sunday.
Now back to the show.
SPEAKER_00 (16:06):
And we'll explain what the charts mean too,
because I just said$1.8 billiondownturn in U.S.
sorghum exports to China, andthat that that's that's an
impact.
And that's why sorghum or Milo,whatever you want to call it,
they better be part of thispayment.
Now, the next one is cotton, andyou can see again in recent
years, China generally importedbetween two and five million
(16:29):
bales annually of U.S.
cotton.
But as the chart shows, that'svery, very minimal.
So the the loss of the Chinesemarket is a key factor, is why
we have cotton prices in themid-60s.
They're probably lower today.
I didn't look.
And and before, when Chinaimported three to five million
(16:49):
bales of U.S.
cotton, cotton futures averagedabout 90 cents.
So there's your impact from themid-60s to 90 cents.
That means cotton better get atrade-related aid payment.
Okay.
And again, I'll say even somefarm media says this will be a
(17:10):
bailout payment.
Oh my goodness, it's not abailout.
This won't even come close.
You've heard people say that.
Oh, I've seen it, I've seen itin print.
It just it's not a bailout,they're not going to be made
whole, and it's an insult.
It's an insult to uh say that.
SPEAKER_01 (17:25):
Now, then we have the next Debbie like saying if
you and I lost 10 pounds, wewere anorexic.
SPEAKER_00 (17:31):
My doctor, my doctor gave me some a uh artificial
intelligence pictures of me if Ilost 40 to 50 pounds.
He said, showed them to me.
He said, Did your hair growback?
I'm telling you, I don't I lookhot.
Well, no, he did one of them.
He made me bald, but I I meanI'm I I could go to Hollywood
(17:54):
after I'm like that again.
SPEAKER_01 (17:56):
But I digress.
We digress is right, but youknow what?
The craziness of today, we needa good chuckle.
That made me laugh.
So I mean production, my friend.
SPEAKER_00 (18:05):
That's a yeah.
What a lot of a lot of writersand analysts are not pointing
out is look at look at theincrease in Brazilian and
actually Argentina productionsince the last US China trade
war.
Look at Brazil.
I mean, it's it's in that 175million metric ton area where it
(18:28):
had been, let's see, right aboutwhat 120 million, you know.
So they got a lot more soybeansto sell in Brazil.
So it's just not a trade thing.
This is a production angle inBrazil.
That that's my point that yousee it graphically, but you can
(18:51):
hear it too.
And that was from the AmericanSoybean Association.
SPEAKER_01 (18:54):
Oh boy, I've been talking to my friends on the
soybean association.
They've been they are reallypulling hard for folks out
there.
SPEAKER_00 (19:00):
Well, and this is why.
Let's go through again.
You would have to you'll seethis, but monthly U.S.
soybean exports versus exportsto China.
It's just a sad tale from theyou know, the last year through
August this year.
I mean, it's L Zero at the endnow, but you can see how this is
(19:25):
dramatically impacting thesoybean export situation.
That's that one.
Then you can go through monthlyBrazil soybean exports versus
exports to China, and you cansee vividly, Tommy, how Brazil
is overtaking that market.
And so it's uh China's share ofUnited States and Brazil soybean
(19:48):
exports.
Again, Brazil now has a 73%market share, where uh the US
prior to this uh plummeting hadabout 52 percent.
So you can see where we used tohave a much higher figure, a
six.
(20:11):
We are now what's the long-termimplications?
Because you know, you with withthe two leading powers in the
world, U.S.
and China, I I think this isgoing to go on for certain
years.
This means that the so U.S.
soybean sector has to uh do acombination, they have to find
newer markets.
Uh, I know it's not enough toreplace the Chinese market,
(20:34):
maybe half of it that they lost.
But this is why we've increasedsoybean processing facilities in
order to get for renewablediesel, biodiesel, to do the uh
the renewable fuel standardprogram.
And whenever they get the 45Zsustainable aviation fuel
(20:55):
program going, this is thelonger-term development to keep
uh the soybean sector not at themercy of China buy.
So there's both short-term andlonger-term developments here.
And uh again, the other chartwould be total soybean exports
by the United States and Brazil,and and you can see Brazil is
(21:17):
now the by far the leadingexporter of uh of soybeans.
Where in 2011 the US bestedBrazil, not by much, but they
did in 2012.
That was a glory year in U.S.
agriculture, the nirvana.
We had a lot more soybeanexports to the world than Brazil
(21:40):
did.
But each year after that, Brazilincreased relative to the United
States.
So this is why prior at thecabinet meeting before you had
the blow-up uh between China andthe US, President Trump said he
was going to speak to Xi Jinpingabout buying U.S.
(22:03):
soybeans and uh and a goodlyamount, he said.
He didn't specify it.
Goodly, then a goodly amount,yeah.
And then huge, huge, as as Trumpwould say.
But this is why it just fellapart.
Now that doesn't mean they canpick up the peace, they can pick
up the pieces.
I've seen this one, they're tryprobably penetrating on this
(22:24):
one, and but that's where we'reat.
They're just flexing theirmuscles ahead of a the uh
possible meeting if it comes uhabout this year.
SPEAKER_01 (22:35):
So that's what I told clients today.
You know, folks who had soldsoybeans off the combine and
wanted to buy them back.
I said, You got beans down 20.
Sure, it looks like the world'sending today.
That that's today.
Where are we gonna be if SouthAmerica has a drought in a few
months, Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (22:50):
That's true.
And I was surprised it didn't godown more today.
So that you soybeans, yeah.
I I think that's a positivesignal, believe it or not, even
though down that much.
I I thought they would be downmore.
SPEAKER_01 (23:03):
Real quick note, just talking about let's talk
about markets at the end.
At the end of this, becausewe're gonna be done with slides
soon.
I want to kind of go through allthe markets, stock market where
they are, what happened inmetals, what happened in meats,
and everything else, and maybeyou could add a little color.
Uh, let's go to this next slide.
Dollar, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (23:18):
What do you mean here?
For well, for a while there, thedollar was down nine percent for
for earlier this year, andthat's usually good for exports.
But now the dollar index is ontrack to post its strongest
weekly advance in a year, risingnearly two percent.
That's a negative, by the way,to U.S.
commodities.
And you saw it in in commentaryyesterday that a number of
(23:42):
commentaries on corn andsoybeans said, well, we went
down today because the value ofthe dollar is is uh, well, they
said surging.
I don't think it was surging,but it's it's increasing.
And you can see for the future,the dollar sentiment chart turns
most bullish since April.
That means, yeah, that thatmeans uh the dollar uh could be
(24:02):
a drag on on uh thecompetitiveness of U.S.
farm exports, but it usuallytakes more than a few months for
a dollar value to have an impactone way or the other, helping or
hurting.
So this is maybe a tradingsituation right now.
So that's what I wanted to saythere.
And the last one I had down, uhTommy is my good friend John
(24:25):
Newton.
I think would he say the same?
Yes, he would.
SPEAKER_01 (24:30):
He would like this guy.
I like John Newton, very goodguy, and a great public speaker,
much like yourself.
SPEAKER_00 (24:37):
And he's great on charts.
I mean, wow, he's returning tothe Farm Bureau a dual role.
And I don't think out of all thedecades I've watched Farm
Bureau, I don't think they'veever combined vice president of
public policy and economicanalysis.
So he's gonna lead their FarmBureau's government relations
and advocacy staff while servingas the group's uh top economist.
(25:01):
And and I think they couldn'thave picked a uh a better
person.
He knows Farm Bureau, workedthere before.
He was the Senate Ag Committee'schief economist for Bullsbeck up
there.
Then he yeah, then he went overto terrain.
So we've got uh one of the besteconomists out there now at the
Farm Bureau, and I like that.
That's a good thing.
SPEAKER_01 (25:19):
He resigned from terrain.
SPEAKER_00 (25:22):
Yeah, he he resigned for I think he told me in an
email, maybe 10 days.
I think he'll be back over atthe farm bureau because he
wanted to make sure that I senthim my morning report at his new
email until he gets into FarmBureau.
SPEAKER_01 (25:39):
That's how I'm gonna eye on this guy, Mr.
John Newton.
And I I I he was on stage withDon Wick at uh the Big Iron Farm
Show in North Dakota, and hejust speaks so well, makes it
simple, doesn't speak above you,doesn't make you seem silly for
not knowing, and that's whatwe're here to do.
You and I are here to educate.
Speaking of your uh newsletterhere, let's get to the lightning
(26:00):
round.
There it is, right there.
Weismeyer at gmail.com.
If you'd like Jim's freenewsletter, go right there.
I got it running on the tickerright there.
Weismeyer at gmail.com.
And Jim will be.
SPEAKER_00 (26:19):
You know how that goes, Tommy.
And I'm more than willing to uhgive information out to the much
needy and good act sector.
SPEAKER_01 (26:28):
Yeah, I just want to take one minute to uh thank
everyone for watching.
We we just rolled out a fewweeks ago premium content.
We had because of your show,people sign up.
Weismeyer is free because of Mr.
Jim Weismeyer.
But uh, if you like additionalcontent from AgBull,$25 a month,
$250 a year.
I texted clients within twominutes of that news breaking.
(26:49):
I had a text out to AgBullclients, AgBull Trading, and
then this AgBull Intel service.
You can go to www.agbull.com.
Some people don't want futuresand options count, but they
still want to be in the know.
Does that make sense to you,Jim?
SPEAKER_00 (27:06):
I do.
I I think so.
SPEAKER_01 (27:08):
Or maybe they have a broker they like, right?
Hey, I've been working with thisguy for 20 years, but I like you
too.
I want to get on yourinformation research package.
So we're happy to provide thatat a uh affordable, affordable
price.
80 cents a day.
Speaking of 80 cents a day, Ijust found out, not that I
smoke, but I didn't realize thatcigarettes in some states are$15
(27:30):
a pack.
Used to be able to buy a cartonfor$15, Mr.
Weespire.
I I don't think the tobaccofarmers get all that money, do
they?
SPEAKER_00 (27:38):
No, I remember when I worked at my father's service
station, they were like 35 centsa pack.
SPEAKER_01 (27:44):
Did you ever sneak one or two?
SPEAKER_00 (27:45):
No, I never smoked one in in my life because my
father smoked way too much andit hurt his uh blood vessels, by
the way.
SPEAKER_01 (27:52):
You know who else didn't smoke?
President Well, PresidentClinton didn't inhale.
SPEAKER_00 (27:59):
Well, I said I didn't smoke cigarettes.
SPEAKER_01 (28:03):
All right, let's get in the lightning round.
Tommy Gersafi, Jim Wiesmeyer,cattle closed at all-time highs
today.
I don't know what they can sayabout it.
Just wow, wow, wow.
Upon filming this, the uh crudeoil is down 270.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer, that is five.
SPEAKER_00 (28:17):
Crude oil's down because of primarily because of
the unbelievable peace agreementuh between Israel and Hamas.
Now there's more to go, youknow, you can never trust Hamas,
but the the the big one was tostop the fighting and to release
those prisoners, hostages,actually, and that'll happen
(28:39):
Monday or Tuesday.
You know, you know, PresidentTrump said, but anyone has to
tip uh their hat or should toour president on that one
because he it was because ofhim, he he got all parties
together.
And frankly, I believe he whenhe said this could have
longer-term impacts, way morepositive than anyone realized,
(29:02):
where you could have peace,believe it or not, in the Middle
East, so that sector can growlike Saudi Arabia is growing.
I mean, if I wished I couldtravel as much as I used to, I'd
go over to Saudi Arabia becausesome of the architecture over
there is unbelievable, andDubai, etc.
So that's good news.
And from a crude oilperspective, that's really the
(29:22):
reason you're going down.
SPEAKER_01 (29:24):
Yeah, yeah, big moves there.
Stock market NASDAQ went fromseverely overbought to oversold
territory within two, threehours.
I just saw a tweet come out fromZero Hedge, and uh everyone's
complaining, oh, this damnNasdaq's overbought.
Well, not anymore.
No, if you're looking to buy adip.
Now, you said before we startedrecording, don't be surprised at
all if we see an eight to tenpercent pullback.
(29:46):
No, the Dow Jones is at 40,000.
If we say the Dow's down 800,that's not a stock market crash,
folks.
No, that's a two percentcorrection.
So think of things in percent.
That's my little advice for theweekend.
SPEAKER_00 (30:00):
And markets need to breathe.
So you have I've never worriedif in all my years of the equity
markets of a of an eight to tenpercent.
Once if it gets over tenpercent, you have to watch it a
little bit more.
But that helps evaluations andand things like that.
So and it was overdue becausewe've had a dramatic my 401k,
(30:21):
it's 501k.
So I can I can I can I can 401and a half K.
SPEAKER_01 (30:26):
Hey, speaking of investing and buying dips and
selling rips, did you ever meetWarren Buffett?
SPEAKER_00 (30:30):
Oh, yes, I did.
I've seen him at severalconferences than that.
He's the the Oracle of uh Omaha,just a wise man beyond his uh
means.
SPEAKER_01 (30:39):
Yes, yeah, absolutely.
All right, I got a couplequestions people texted before
we started the show.
How long will governmentshutdown last?
I know the prediction marketsare are are betting on this.
SPEAKER_00 (30:49):
Now they're the prediction markets keep going
longer and longer.
Uh I I don't think it's gonnawait until November 1.
The pressure is already mountmounting, and you can see it.
I will tell you what to watchout for.
I I hope it's it's done by theend of next week, next Friday,
(31:11):
but it could take another Fridayto do so.
But the pressure is there.
Uh, watch your uh airlineindustry.
Americans uh fly a lot, andyou're already starting to see
some some withdraw uh like uhcancellations or a slowdown of
the uh transportation people uhcalling in sick, Tommy, more
(31:34):
than average in a shutdown.
Well, then that backs up thewhole airline industry, and
that's that that's real bigpressure point.
One, two is the military, theyhave to uh work, but they're not
being paid.
And so that'll be a pressurepoint.
That'll be a pressure point asas well.
But it's really the AffordableCare Act or Obamacare, but both
(31:57):
one and the same.
The new enrollment period beginsNovember one.
So the Democrats want to extendthe COVID-related enhanced
Obamacare payments that total$185 billion.
That's wow, even in Washington,that's a lot of money.
(32:18):
And the Republicans say no.
Now they're talking behind thescenes of a possible compromise.
Well, that takes a while to geteverybody together.
So watch that issue.
But uh right now, both politicalparties are entrenched, so that
it's hard to predict when itwill end, and that's why the
(32:39):
markets, the the betting marketsare saying it'll be at least
another two weeks.
I hope they're wrong becausewe've already said from a farmer
perspective, the aid payments,etc., the farmer aid package is
now beholden until thegovernment uh uh gets there.
So a lot of things are startingto build on the pressure mounts.
SPEAKER_01 (33:00):
Ah, that's no good.
That's just no good.
Well, folks, if you'relistening, watching, drop a
comment.
You could you're probablywatching this on YouTube.
We'll put it on some othersocial medias.
We have Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
I am Tommy Gersafi.
Jim's coming to us fromWashington, D.C.
I am in Valparaiso, Indianatoday.
You're listening to the Ag BowlPodcast and uh little somber
Tommy.
We laughed a few times.
(33:20):
Very serious what's happening inthe markets.
SPEAKER_00 (33:23):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (33:23):
Last but not least, uh, because I want to do that
lightning round of talking aboutmarkets.
And a few times while we weredoing the show, I clicked on
some gold.
The gold market has been goingcrazy.
Last thoughts, Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer.
Stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (33:38):
China is a big participant in that gold market.
They keeps buying gold, and andfor this uh strategic reason is
that they have lowered theirpurchases or their dollar
accumulation by almost 50% overthe last few years, because they
don't want the US, if they wedid get into a conflict with
(34:00):
them, take their dollarholdings.
So that's one reason.
Also, when when China does that,it actually lowers the value of
their currency, the REMD or theYuan, which makes their products
that that much more competitive.
And gold is seen as a hedge forChina relative to their dollar
holdings.
(34:21):
So all that is involved, andmore from a speculative
perspective of why we've seen atremendous rally in the gold
price.
SPEAKER_01 (34:29):
I couldn't have said it better and didn't even
understand half of what yousaid.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, the show's beenWiesmeyer's Perspectus and uh
perspectives, and I'mTimakersafi.
I could barely talk because thishas been a wild one and the
markets aren't even closed yet.
We'll see you all real soon.
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.