November 21, 2025 • 48 mins
We sprint through a volatile week in ag policy: Brazil tariff rollbacks, EU tariff rumors, labor and H‑2A shifts, aid program timing, RFS delays, border reopening signals, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, and breaking news on a Tyson beef plant closure.
• USDA and CFTC reporting cadence returning
• Brazil coffee and beef tariffs lifted to fight food prices
• Potential easing of EU food tariffs and NCBA concerns
• ICE de-emphasizing raids and H‑2A expansion, dairy left out
• Farm losses per acre and aid package design uncertainty
• Disaster program stage two and expected top-up payments
• RFS and RINs timing delays, 45Z uncertainty
• USDA communications balance and need for field listening
• US–Mexico border phased reopening and realistic cattle flows
• Fed cut odds falling and financing risks
• China soy commitments vs competitiveness and history
• Whole milk back to schools boosting dairy sentiment
• New WOTUS proposal reducing federal permitting burdens
• Cattle-on-feed bullish read overshadowed by Tyson closure
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:10):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Grassofi, Eggbull Media,Eggbull Trading.
You're listening to the EggbullPodcast.
My phone's dinging and danging.
What a week.
I don't know where to start, butdon't worry.
We got it all for you.
Mr.
Weesmeyer sent his notes.
He's ready to teach class.
Enjoy the show.
Let's give this man the properintroduction.
He's so much deserved.
unknown (00:59):
Mr.
SPEAKER_01 (01:00):
Jim Wiesmeyer, happy Friday, my friend.
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
So glad it's Friday.
We had like two weeks in oneagain.
It's called Trump on Steroids.
And we got a different approachto the news this week, Tommy.
As you well know, we're going togo through a true lightning
round of the issues that we'veidentified.
(01:22):
In case we don't have enoughtime to get through them all,
we're going to bottom line it atfirst and then come back as we
have time to decipher the topstories of the week.
SPEAKER_01 (01:34):
Let's take it at the top.
Number one, two, and three, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (01:37):
Day to catch up.
We're going to show later on.
USDA, CFTC released theirreports.
Some of the business reportsalso came out.
We had a cattle on feed reporttoday, and that was a current
report, by the way.
Tariffs.
It's a movable target.
Remember, we've been discussingthose Brazil 40 uh actually 50%
(01:59):
tariffs on coffee and and beef.
Well, they're off now.
So that's good.
SPEAKER_01 (02:06):
The third one was the EU.
SPEAKER_00 (02:09):
Yeah.
The third one, I'd have to goback to your list.
Yeah.
Potential lowering of tariffs onEU food goods.
We're going to talk about that.
Cattle may not like that.
I know NCBA doesn't, but we'lldissect that.
Our four.
Yeah.
Oh, ICE is de-emphasizing againdeportations on farms.
(02:32):
We'll bottom line what thatmeans.
H2A changes were recentlyannounced.
We're going to put a bottom lineassessment on that, but we still
need year-round dairy to uhcontribute to H2A.
Six is a biggie, tariff aid.
We're going to spend some timeon that one, Tommy.
When is it going to beannounced?
How much?
(02:53):
And what type of a program we'regoing to have for that, Tommy?
789.
There's your disaster programtoo.
Was finally announced.
We're going to have bottom linenumbers, including a question
most farmers asked me, but we'lltell you what that means.
The eighth one is the renewablefuel standard program.
(03:15):
Reuters had a story that reallysays that uh the warring
factions between the refinersand the biofuel people has
resurrected again and it maydelay some decisions.
Nine is a sensitive one.
Is Secretary Rollins at USDAtalking too much to the big
(03:36):
media?
That would be Fox News, uh FoxBusiness, CNBC, Newsmax, X,
things like that.
Some pretty good people aretelling me she needs to go out
to talk to more farmers andranchers.
And that's and I I would agreebecause she's very articulate.
More on that later.
SPEAKER_01 (03:56):
Personally, I like her a lot.
Time to take your shoes offbecause we're up to number 10,
11, and 12.
That means we can't count on ourfingers anymore.
SPEAKER_00 (04:02):
Yeah, we've got some news on the US-Mexico border
reopening.
In fact, some news that was justannounced today.
It's not overopened yet.
11, the Fed challenge.
Now we have sinking rates thatthey're going to lower rates in
December at the FOMC meeting.
12 is a December to remembercoming up on healthcare.
(04:26):
Will the Republicans andDemocrats in the White House
ever reach a deal on thoseenhanced Obamacare credits by
January 30th?
Then we'll take it home.
Will China buy all those U.S.
beans, like the Trumpadministration says, will have
something to watch out for.
Whole milk is coming back toschools, not right away, but
(04:49):
it's coming back.
That's a good thing for dairy.
And the last one, we have a newrevised and improved Wotus rule.
We'll tell you the impact.
SPEAKER_01 (05:00):
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
Hi.
I swear I'm on the show.
He's got me clicking thebuttons.
Tommy Gersafi from Valparaiso,Indiana.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
You probably wonder where thehell does Jim Wiesmeyer come
from?
Well, we got the man on thestreet, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
Let's get right in the show.
Number one, kick it off, sir.
SPEAKER_00 (05:20):
Well, those are these, and we're not going to go
through all these, but thecattle, the the commitments of
traders report, that's importantto a trader like you, Tommy, and
a lot of traders.
They wanted to, but it's goingto take a while for the CFTC to
catch up.
And that's why you see in themiddle the original published
date and now the new publisheddate.
We won't get back to snuffcurrent, that is, until early
(05:43):
next year.
That's the bottom line there.
But at least we're going to seesome of the uh big longs, big
shorts, and things like that,because that a lot of times that
sets the tone of the marketplaceon Mondays.
SPEAKER_01 (05:55):
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I got to tell you, Jim, froma trader's perspective, the uh
all these smart people, they'rejust at a loss.
I mean, these number crunchers,these geeks, these people who
live and die and sleep withExcel spreadsheets, they only
have one speed, and that's geekspeed.
They don't know how to thinkoutside the box.
That's Tommy's two cents.
No.
SPEAKER_00 (06:15):
And the FAS, we had daily export sales and the
export sales report.
And now we're going to begetting them.
So that's good because it's agood way to monitor whether
China's living up to theirpurchase commitments on it,
looks like the phase two of theU.S.
China.
More on that later, but at leastwe'll have numbers again, Tommy,
(06:37):
both on a daily and a weeklybasis.
And then NAS, we're not going togo through all those, but NAS
has a lot of reports, and thisshows you the dates at which
they're going to come out withthese reports.
Again, it's going to take sometime to get them caught up.
But some of the reports, likewe'll end with on the cattle on
feed, was actually currenttoday.
(06:59):
So that's a good thing.
We're going to get solidinformation in time from USDA
basis their surveys.
SPEAKER_01 (07:05):
Jim, if people watching or listening want that
list, where can they get itfrom?
SPEAKER_00 (07:10):
Just go Google NAS, N-A-S-S, and look under their
press releases, and it's it'sthere.
I also put it in my updatesThursday, I believe.
So you can also call up myupdates at my email, my last
name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01 (07:27):
We have it on the Agble website, Agile Intel.
Mr.
Wiesmeyers, yep, Joe Post.
SPEAKER_00 (07:31):
It's there.
We covered it live when ithappened.
I put actually I put a specialreport out.
SPEAKER_01 (07:36):
Yep, we probably put a breaking news headline on it.
Okay, back to the show.
We are Brazil.
SPEAKER_00 (07:44):
Remember how long we've been discussing those
extra 40% tariffs on top of theinitial 10% tariffs on Brazilian
coffee and and and uh beef.
Well, they finally took them offyesterday, yesterday afternoon.
They ruined my yesterdayafternoon because I had to write
a special report.
(08:04):
Now it's gonna take some timefor those products to get into
the marketplace, but I'm gonnahave cheaper coffee probably
around Christmas time.
It's gonna take probably atleast 30 days to work to the
system because there's expensiveinventory built up at
supermarkets at supermarkets.
So, but but what I what I dowant to put a policy statement
(08:26):
out in this.
What this shows you theirstrategy on the Trump trade
policy was not well thought outto begin with.
Had he kept with his initialinstinct, which was correct, on
rest on reciprocal, like tellingthe world, we're gonna treat you
the way you treat us.
Any American listener couldunderstand that.
(08:48):
Well, that's fair, but then theyadded more on, and when he got
mad at Brazil for treating theirformer president, Trump's
friend, not so good, they puthim in in jail.
He slapped an additional 40%tariffs on.
Well, that kept most of theirbeef uh out of the U.S.
(09:08):
market, and it's not highquality stuff, it's it's
hamburger.
Hamburger.
Yeah, hamburger.
So it's not going to upset theoverall meat market here and and
maybe two percent.
And but then the coffee is big.
I mean, it showed the coffeefutures really just went down a
lot because they know thatBrazil is a big coffee exporter.
(09:32):
So, but why did they do whatthey did?
Because they should have knownthat tells me they didn't have
real aggies in their strategyroom, Tommy.
Because if they did, they beenwouldn't be worried as much now
about food prices.
They're they're dropping thesetariffs for one major reason
food prices.
(09:52):
They're not going down as muchas they want to, and coffee is a
big component, and they shouldhave never put them on to begin
with.
So at least they're they'recorrecting their wrongs.
That's my bottom line on that.
SPEAKER_01 (10:05):
And then full disclosure, folks, feeder cattle
today opened, offered limit down925.
Most of the months of thefeeders offered limit down,
traded a lot down there, went upon the day, actually had a hell
of a run, and then settled down.
Now, there may be some latebreaking news this afternoon.
We don't have it yet confirmed,so I don't even want to talk
(10:27):
about it, but we do have thecommitment and traders from a
trader standpoint.
Whether you were bullish orbearish, there was something for
everyone again this gym.
SPEAKER_00 (10:36):
Yeah, it shows volatility, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (10:38):
Okay, I'm a trader.
Call me selfish, call me a pig,call me whatever.
(11:09):
But as a commodity trader owns aseat at the board, just get the
stuff moving.
We'll find a way to carve out alittle for ourselves.
True.
SPEAKER_00 (11:17):
Brazil, the financial time, I should say
European Union.
The Financial Times had a storyactually late last night, and I
knew when I saw it, I had tocover it this morning.
They're saying the the uh Trumpuh administration may
potentially lower further thetariffs on European food goods.
(11:39):
Well, again, why would they dothat?
Food prices.
They the the key word now inWashington, both political
parties is affordability.
Both political parties know thatbecause it was a form of the
recent elections that theDemocrats won in New Jersey and
Virginia, my home state now, andin some races in Georgia.
(12:02):
Well, they're they're thinkingwe've we've got to get more
products coming into the UnitedStates, and hopefully by
Christmas, that's what I keep onhearing from them, they think
that uh it'll help it'll startworking its way into the system.
I said earlier that I don'tthink NC National Cattlemen's
Beef Association is gonna likethat because they want better
(12:25):
trading terms for U.S.
beef, hormone-free beef, etc.,going into the EU.
And they've uh they the U.S.
has not been all that successfulin increasing beefs, uh, our our
beef going into the um EU.
So watch this one.
It's not confirmed yet, but theFinancial Times is a pretty good
(12:46):
publication.
SPEAKER_01 (12:47):
Yeah, I I like that from uh worldview.
Number four, sir.
ICE.
This is very you know, a lot ofpeople get revved up about this.
SPEAKER_00 (12:54):
Well, now they're going back, they it keeps on
flipping, but the White Househas signaled that ICE, that's
your customs enforcement.
Recently, they appeared to backoff from conducting ag workplace
raids.
Uh, and uh even as it's asscours democratic-led cities for
immigrants who are in thecountry illegally.
(13:17):
Well, that's kind of a good noask, uh, don't ask, don't tell,
Tommy.
Let's hope they they continuethat, because most of those
illegal immigrants in farmcountry most are not criminals.
So, and they're finding out atthe White House, at the National
Economic Council and elsewherewho are not agriculture
(13:40):
oriented, that agriculture needsworkers.
So that'll be good for thespecialty crops industry, not so
much the grains, maybe maybe themeat packers, absolutely.
So that's a good thing as far ashaving having the right number
of people.
And along with that, we haveanother one, Tommy, on that one.
Uh, is the H2A changes.
(14:02):
Now, recently the Trumpadministration eased labor
shortages on farms via uhchanges to that H2A visa program
that allows in more than a fewagricultural workers, about
420,000 every year since 2023,Tommy.
However, they they they need alot more.
(14:26):
So they've increased that.
So you're gonna see a dramaticincrease in the number of
seasonal workers coming in towork on U.S.
farms.
But dairy is still not helpedall that because they need
year-round workers.
So we still need either anadministrative decision or a
(14:47):
congressional law on that one.
But at least they're moving inthe right direction to get the
people so those specialty crops.
SPEAKER_01 (14:56):
Sugar, my friends up in North Dakota, they just got
done with the uh harvesting thesugar beets.
They could not do.
I talked to one of my largeclients, one of the largest
sugar beet growers.
Two things he wanted me to tellyou.
One, he watches, and two, theytook a butt-kicking this year.
The price of sugar in the worldhas collapsed, and the uh beet
(15:17):
growers of the uh Red RiverValley absolutely taking a
beaten this year when it comesto uh markets.
They're they're very, veryworried about the financial uh
security of the sugar growth.
SPEAKER_00 (15:27):
Well, we're gonna get into that.
I don't know whether it's thenext one or not, as far as the
downturn and the aid packagecoming, but we'll get into that.
We are that was a good bridge,Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (15:38):
You're very good, Mr.
Weesmeyer.
We're gonna have you back nextweek.
SPEAKER_00 (15:41):
Look at this.
This chart comes from Texas AMUniversity.
My good economist, Dr.
Joe Outlaw and Dr.
Bart Fisher.
I'm very good friends with bothof them.
SPEAKER_01 (15:52):
I wonder if they say the same.
SPEAKER_00 (15:54):
Bart would.
I don't know about Dr.
Outlaw, but anyway, look atthese bar charts going down.
You don't want them to go down.
These are the losses per acre.
The blue is 2024, and the maroonor orange or whatever we want to
call it is 2025.
And look at cotton.
Wow, look at rice.
(16:16):
I mean, there's a world of hurt.
Oats and things, and even evencorn and soybeans are just 100
to 200 an acre losses.
So if if if I were to add sugar,and they even mentioned this in
Southern Ag Today, that TexasAM, they even mentioned the
downturn in sugar.
So I will definitely acknowledgethat that whenever they come out
(16:40):
with the aid program, we'll getinto that very shortly.
They better include sugar onthat.
And let's go to the next chartbecause this comes, nope, we had
one on from FarmDoc.
The the employment.
SPEAKER_01 (16:53):
I don't think we slipped that in that.
Okay, that's all right.
SPEAKER_00 (16:56):
Well, anyway, we're gonna get a chunk of money for
the 2025 crop, but that won'tcome until the fall of next
year.
So that's why we need an aidprogram.
Now let's discuss the keyfeatures of the coming aid
program.
Uh USDA secretary Brooke Rollinssaid today that now it's gonna
(17:16):
come out in early December.
Now you'll recall before thegovernment shutdown, 43 days,
she was saying it's gonna beannounced very soon.
But now that the and then shesaid, well, when the government
reopens, well, the governmenthas reopened.
Where's the aid program?
Well, she told Bloomberg and acouple of other people this week
(17:39):
that now it's gonna come inearly December.
Have things changed?
What I've been able it, it itwas the total of the program was
gonna be about 12 or 13 billiondollars.
But now I'm starting to hearthey've changed the focus of the
program.
They've looked at some of theprice run-up, like soybeans have
(18:00):
gone up, what, a dollar to adollar, a dollar and a half at
one point.
A dollar and a half at onepoint.
Now, and so they're it they maybe scaling down, not out.
We're gonna have an aid package,but farmers are saying, what are
they talking about?
Because the government was shutdown.
We were we were forced in somecases to market some of our
(18:24):
commodities for cash flowbecause we couldn't put it, we
couldn't get a marketingassistant loan because they
weren't offering them.
So they're they're readjusting.
I they I don't think they knowhow they're going to strategize
the program.
Some people within the Trumpadministration want to target on
(18:44):
China and trade if you if thecommodities have been hurt by
exports.
Others want to say, no, farmershave a cash flow problem.
They're they're debt repayments.
We've talked about that over thepast few weeks.
This is not should not just bean export program.
And if it was just focused onexports, corn has a record corn
(19:08):
exports year going on.
Does that mean they don't getanything?
So you can see the dilemma.
And all I know is there'spolitics involved here, too,
because the ag community, notjust farmers, the rural
community, uh, for a group wasthe largest uh sector that voted
(19:28):
for President Trump.
His first term in office, his uhdefeat on Biden, and all and his
coming back under Trump 2.0.
So there's a lot of farmers whowill be upset if this is not
deemed as enough support.
I don't want to tell you, I didhear numbers under$10 billion
(19:50):
this week, but I think they're Iknow they're still discussing it
and they're seeing some of theresponses in uh on the news
wires.
And I know in my writing whatfarmers are saying, like they
they're more than upset if thisis not a viable program to
bridge them, Tommy, into 2026.
(20:11):
That that's all the USDofficials have said that.
They know that.
Now, what they could do is whenthey do announce it in early
December, maybe they can getHouse Ad Committee Chairman GT
Thompson from Pennsylvania,Bozeman from Arkansas, and to
say, okay, our our aid programis just an initial down payment.
(20:33):
Congress, much like they did in2024, December 21st, to be
exact, when they legislated$10billion in farmer aid and about
$20 billion in ag disaster aid,but that was for 23 and 24
crops.
Maybe they'll do that, but we'llsee.
But all I want to point out,this is my bottom line, they're
(20:56):
still discussing it becausethey've seen the impact of the
soybean price runup, but thathas not helped uh corn all that
much, and it hasn't helpedsorghum, even though China has
purchased some sorghum Milo andcotton.
I can't tell you how thehorrible stories I'm hearing on
(21:16):
cotton.
You saw that in the bar chart,where their prices are stuck at
62 cents, where when China wasinto the marketplace, they were
in the 90 cent or higher area.
So aid is coming.
We don't know how much anymore,and we don't know their concept
of the aid program, whetherit'll be export-oriented or will
(21:39):
it be to help farmers bridgeinto 2026 and help them make
make some debt payments.
SPEAKER_01 (21:45):
Jim, we have breaking news.
I don't want to say it yet, butyoung Lindsay just popped in the
show.
She's adding a slide, it's notgood, and I'm not happy about
it.
But while we're talking, folks,if you'd like to catch anything,
we'll pull that up in onesecond, Joe.
We'll pull that up in onesecond.
If you'd like Jim Wiesmeyer'sstuff, yeah, yeah.
Joe, a little fast on the grip,but that's right.
(22:06):
We still love him.
All right.
If you want to get Mr.
Wiesmeyer's newsletter,Wiesmeyer at gmail.com.
You can go to www.agbull.
We're posting his stories asfast as he's putting them out.
This is free.
This is the best doggone thingin the internet.
There's nothing better.
Matter of fact, they see a lotof other people and agriculture
(22:26):
people cutting and pasting anddoing all that stuff and
publishing his stuff.
But that's all right.
That's just uh what do you callthat?
Uh flattery is the uhcompliment, right?
SPEAKER_00 (22:36):
I'm I'm too yeah, I'm too busy going on to the
next story.
But can we put that one liner upagain on Tyson?
SPEAKER_01 (22:42):
Yeah, yeah, and we got some graphics to uh back it
up, I believe.
This just came out.
This is what I was worried wasgonna happen.
It is confirmed.
Tyson to shut down a beefprocessing plant in Lexington,
Nebraska.
I heard oh, I I lost my uh mycamera here.
We'll get I'll pop back in here.
Where is where am I here?
(23:04):
I'm in the show here.
SPEAKER_00 (23:06):
So let's get some but perspective on this one.
Now, this tells you some of thehurt that it's just not limited
to farmers and ranchers.
They the ag business industry isgoing through some trend, some,
some, some negative times aswell.
When you look at farm machinery,when you look at the the meat
packers and things like that.
(23:26):
And I don't know whether this ispart of it, but it probably is.
And I never like to see a plantclose because that means less
competition, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (23:35):
It's not good.
This is one of the side effectsof Joe.
Do you see where the graphic is?
I I don't oh, I do see it.
Okay, right here, Tyson,Lexington.
Folks, I'm reading it here.
Here's what we have here.
I I do have a little verbiage.
Would you like me to read it?
I would, yes.
Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna pop onand I'm gonna do my best to read
it.
(23:56):
Joe, you could pull off thatgraphic.
I'm having a hard time.
I got it right here.
Okay, here I am.
Tommy Grossoffee, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
Folks, if you're enjoying theshow, tell a friend about it.
All right, this isn't the bestnews ever, but uh, I'm gonna
read what I have, so sorry forlooking down here.
Tyson to close one of thebiggest beef processing plants
in the U.S.
Tyson Foods, America's largestmeat supplier, is planning to
(24:17):
close one of the largest beefprocessing plants in Nebraska at
a time when a cattle shortage inthe U.S.
squeezes meatpacking companies.
This Lexington, this Lexington,Nebraska plant employs roughly
3,000 people and can slaughteralmost 5,000 cattle a day,
according to industry experts.
Tyson is the first of the bigfour meatpacking companies that
(24:40):
process 85% of the beef in theU.S.
to close a major plant duringthe current cattle supply
crunch.
Meat packers, including Tyson,have been losing hundreds of
millions of dollars processingbeef because of the lowest
amount of cattle in U.S.
pastures since 1956.
Tyson said earlier this month,this is the cattle, this is the
cattle cost for the 2025 fiscalyear ended in a September, rose
(25:03):
nearly by 2 billion comparedwith the prior year, meaning
that the price of cattles wentup so much this was their cost
to go buy it, equivalent to likejet fuel going crazy, and the
airlines lose money when crudeoil is$130.
The same thing happened.
Record price is great for theperson raising the beef, but
there's an effect, folks.
This is why we got to get backto economics.
(25:24):
Mr.
SPEAKER_00 (25:24):
We know how old is this plant?
Do they say?
SPEAKER_01 (25:27):
No, but Jojo's there quick on the draw.
We'll find out.
I do have another friend who'stexting me stuff.
You go ahead, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
I'd like your perspective.
SPEAKER_00 (25:38):
Well, I want to I want to know how why did they
choose this particular plant?
And I want to see the efficiencyof it.
I don't know, but they I thinkthey were forced to do from
their stockholders and thingslike that.
This is called a retrenchment inthe ag sector.
This is just another solid signthat the industry needs help.
(25:59):
And we may they're taking stepsto increase the uh number of
cattle coming in so they canprocess them, and that'll get us
into the Mexico situationshortly.
SPEAKER_01 (26:12):
Okay.
Well, we were going through thenumbers and I saw this breaking
news came in.
Of course, if you want to learnmore, Jim's gonna have breaking
stories about this this weekthis weekend.
We smire at gmail.com.
Um I'll have it this afternoon.
I'm getting more stories.
I'm getting more stories textingme that the border will be
reopening for December 1st aswell.
(26:33):
News next week.
That is not confirmed, but thatis something that's being texted
to me.
Jim, I lost track.
What what doggone number were weon?
We did TRF say this one.
I feel like we're at RFS with uhno no no.
SPEAKER_00 (26:49):
We we need the we need to go back.
What was six?
SPEAKER_01 (26:53):
Well, we went through this.
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
Yeah, we did that one.
We did that one, so let's go toseven.
Bottom line, stage one isalready paid out five point
seven billion dollars.
That leaves ten billion forstage two.
That's a specialty crops andquality issues.
There's a 35% factor, so thatthey're they're estimating
they're gonna spend$2.7 billionfor stage two, five million for
(27:18):
storage payments, and uh$1.65million for MLP dairy.
Now, the sign-up ends April30th.
Now, this will save a lot ofemails to me.
Okay, like why do they only do35%?
They're gonna have money leftover, so we're gonna get a
top-up payment for both stageone and stage two, but it can't
(27:38):
come until after they know thetotal amount they're gonna spend
for stage two.
And since signup goes untilApril 30th, we've got a few
months before we get a top-uppayment.
But a top-up payment will come,Tommy.
That's the bottom line on SDRP.
SPEAKER_01 (27:56):
Number eight.
SPEAKER_00 (27:57):
Oh, the renewable fuel standard program is always
complex.
But Reuters had a story aboutmidweek saying that White House
was mulling, delaying until 27or 28 their initial proposal of
EPA to provide only 50%, halfthe RIN values on biofuels made
from imported feedstocks,because that was going to make
(28:19):
the refiners use more U.S.
products.
But that was proposed for the 26and 27 renewable fuel standard
levels.
But now they're also deciding onthe level of those reallocation
of the RFS obligation mandatesaffected by those special
refinery uh announcements thatwe've seen.
(28:41):
And all this is going to affect26 and 27 mandated levels.
So this is yeah, EPA, LeeZeldon.
So I think we're not going toget news until December at the
earliest, and they may even gointo January before we get some
more renewable fuel standardnews and also news about these
(29:01):
RINs.
And also, as I said, 45Zprogram.
So look at the the this is whatfrustrates the industry because
if you have a challenge onexports because of China and
tariffs, you have to increaseyour domestic utilization.
(29:22):
Well, that makes the renewablefuel standards so important, it
makes E-15 year-round soimportant for corn-based
ethanol, and California won'treally get going now until late
2026 or 27 on their E-15 pledgeand new law.
And then the 45Z program,sustainable aviation fuel, we
(29:45):
may not get the details on thatuntil the spring of 2026,
because the Treasury Department,IRS, because it's a tax
incentive, is really bogged downtrying to implement the one big
beautiful bill tax incentivesthat was part of that
legislation signed July 4th.
So that's another frustration onthe part of U.S.
(30:08):
agriculture producers, becausethey're saying we've got to
increase this domesticutilization, but the rules and
regulations are dragging theirfeet, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (30:19):
Yep, you take a minute to uh clear your throat.
All right, I'll read this one.
You get cleaned up over there.
Is Rollins taking too much toobig media, but not Aggies?
I do understand what you meanhere.
Too much time on Fox News, FoxBusiness, CNBC, True Social X.
I've met Secretary Vag Rollins,she was Awesome.
I like her a lot.
And uh the stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (30:40):
Diddle.
She's she is the most articulateag secretary in my long career
since Earl Butts.
And that goes way back to the70s.
SPEAKER_01 (30:50):
We're gonna farm fence post to fence post, Dr.
Earl Butts.
SPEAKER_00 (30:54):
Well, Earl at the time said he didn't say it, the
market was saying it, but that'show he tried to defend himself.
But we digress.
But I think uh I've heard fromfarmers saying they they think
that the secretary, veryarticulate, very nice person,
very knowledgeable, uh, veryclose to President Trump.
(31:15):
She needs to get out more intofarm country to talk and listen
to farmers and ranchers andagribusiness people.
I understand the the element ofgoing on Fox News and Fox
Business News and CNBC.
As I've said before, a lot ofthe cabinet people, Scott
Bessent, Kevin Hassett atNational Economic Council, they
(31:39):
go on the same programs, butthey're really talking not to
the industry, Tommy.
They're talking to their boss,President Trump, because they
know he watches those programs.
So that's kind of their way tosend message grams to so the
president knows what they'redoing.
But it's got to be balanced.
An ag secretary should go out,and she can do it.
(32:01):
I've seen her her first monthwas very good when she met with
more than a few uh farm groupsand farmers and ranchers.
She just needs to continue.
And so let's hope she does.
SPEAKER_01 (32:14):
US Mexico border reopened.
SPEAKER_00 (32:16):
This gets us into, yeah.
Now you had said there was aspeculation that December that
the border could be reopened.
SPEAKER_01 (32:22):
Yeah, that's what I'm hearing on my little text
here.
SPEAKER_00 (32:24):
I don't have it uh that's another thing I've got to
check because they had been uhinitially talking the last few
weeks, by the way, of a Januaryreopening.
But I will tell you this a fewweeks ago, when Ag Secretary
Rollins was at the White Housetalking to Trump, Trump told
her, because he wants thoselower, lower beef prices, he
(32:46):
said, I want that U.S.
Mexico border opened.
And she wasn't going to say no,but she said, Mr.
President, I'm paraphrasinghere, we'll we'll get a plan in
place.
They have to make sure ofcertain protocols and things
like that.
Well, that takes a little while,but they're gearing up, they
were gearing up for it.
We had some announcement thatthere was an integrated
(33:09):
government site now that you cango to for the screw worms.
So that's just anotherindication, Tommy, that they're
that they're getting ready toopen up that border.
Now I want to go through when itis down, what what impact will
it have?
SPEAKER_01 (33:26):
I mean, look at what's happened this week.
Taking off the tariffs, Jim.
Let's just talk about a littlebit.
Taking off the tariffs onBrazil.
Last week it was the 10%, nowthe 40%.
There's still some type oftariff on them, but that can
change.
Allowing the slowly allowing theMexican border open.
I think also last week when wetook off the tariffs, that might
have eased some pressure fromthe Canadians up north.
You want to talk about that alittle bit?
SPEAKER_00 (33:46):
Well, I want to talk about the impact of when we
reopen the border on a phasedin.
It's not going to be reopenedright away.
They're going to test certainsafer areas, but I've been told
by good analysts only 200 to400,000 head may currently be
available for export.
That's far less than some of themarket rumors imply that up to a
(34:09):
million head.
The reason Mexican feedlotsappear to be substituting
cheaper Mexican cattle for theirtypical Central American
imports, they've had improvedrainfall, so it's given
producers more flexibility tohold cattle.
And the spade heifer exports areessentially off the table
because the export window istight and the border timing was
(34:32):
too late for some of them.
So it may not have as negativeimpact initially as the market
thought.
We'll get some of those analysesconfirmed once that border is a
phased-in reopening.
As far as Canada, I'm not quitesure I got your question.
SPEAKER_01 (34:51):
That's okay.
I just that things are easing upall over.
That what I'm trying to say is,and we could sum it up at the
end of the show, is five, sixweeks ago, ten weeks ago, when
we were doing this, and cattlehad its biggest up week almost
ever in history.
We were having bullish news ontop of bullish news, on top of
bullish news, on top of morebullish news, and now it's
(35:12):
reversing.
It's one, and I looked at myphone, you should see the the ex
Twitter blowing up.
Great, another blow to thecattlemen, another blow to the
cattle when maybe this is wewent from the best of times to I
don't want to say the worst oftimes, but I would already say,
and I'll say it on the screen,the cattle industry is entering
a challenging time.
If you have a problem with that,drop a comment down below.
SPEAKER_00 (35:34):
Yeah, and also it tends to signal that we won't uh
make new hives, right?
Is that a safe assessment?
SPEAKER_01 (35:41):
I won't be buying it and running and gunning for it,
but I will say that thefundamentals, we are still short
on beef here, but we're cominginto Thanksgiving, which you
know is a chicken, turkey pasta,you know, something else,
anything but beef.
I like having beef on that.
Speaking of beef, sometimes youhave a beef with this guy,
right?
SPEAKER_00 (35:59):
Uh Jerome J.
Powell.
I say my speech is he's a smartguy, but when it comes to
interest rates, he's dumb.
Okay.
And too many Fed governors,that's part of the Federal Open
Market Committee, FLMC, are nowsignaling, well, maybe we better
not cut December the 10th whenthe next FOMC meeting is.
On the futures market, odds of aDecember cut sank to 32.7
(36:24):
percent earlier this week.
It was 50 a little over 50percent on Tuesday and a lot
higher even earlier.
And that got into the equitiesmarket too, Tommy, because the
market the equities want lower,lower rates to to further put
the U.S.
economy into fourth or fifthgear.
And they're not gonna, it lookslike they may not get it now in
(36:45):
December.
But I'll tell you, if they don'tcut in December, their next cut
is gonna be 50 basis points.
Remember, I told you that.
SPEAKER_01 (36:53):
Okay, all right.
And I do have something I wantto well, we'll revisit.
I do have the answer to yourquestion on the Tyson plant.
Yes, and I want to go over thatat the end of the show, and I'll
explain to you why.
Take a second to clear yourthroat.
I'm gonna go full screen on meand I'm gonna mute your
microphone.
You go ahead and cough all youwant, folks.
Thank you for watching.
My name is Tommy Grossafi, ownerof AgBo Media, Agbol Trading.
(37:16):
If you're enjoying this content,yeah, this is an infomercial
www.agbol.com.
We have premium content$25 amonth,$250 a year.
You could see a save a littlethere if you go for the whole
year.
Mr.
Weissmeyer's show will always befree, but we think we have a
couple sponsors lined up.
But premium content that we'reproducing all week, text on
(37:36):
actionable alerts and breakingnews, you get all that and a
whole bunch more.
Head over to the Agbol website.
With that, let's bring in thestar of the show.
I think he cleared his throat.
SPEAKER_00 (37:44):
I did try it.
SPEAKER_01 (37:45):
It's not easy, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (37:46):
Just dry, just dry.
I did well.
This is this is my happy hourtime, so my old fashion is
waiting for me.
SPEAKER_01 (37:53):
Speaking of old fashioned, the uh I was able to
pick up a couple bottles of uhBlantons this week.
It's uh getting a little easierto get supply and demand, folks.
Okay, we went over the border.
I got the Fed.
We got December to remember.
What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00 (38:06):
That's the Affordable Care Act and the
Obamacare, because you'll seeyou'll recall that was the
biggest part of the uh 43-dayshutdown.
Now, the Senate uh majorityleader John Thune, Republican
from South Dakota, promised theDemocrats there would be a vote
in mid-December in the Senate.
The House never did confirm avote that on dealing with those
(38:31):
enhanced Obamacare uh taxincentives.
So this really has 2026 electionyear impacts.
And Trump now has been talkingto some Democrats.
So there's something going on onthis one.
The trouble is there's noconsensus on the Republican
position.
They have talked for yearstrying to come up with an
(38:52):
alternative to Obamacare, andthey've never been able to.
Most people tell me they see aone or two-year extension of the
enhanced ACA credits, Obamacare,with some reform, maybe a means
testing and some other reforms.
Is that enough to get it throughthe House?
Because know that January 30th,this continuing resolution of
(39:16):
spending for the government tokeep uh going for nine agencies,
not including USDA has theirappropriations done, thank
goodness.
But for nine of the 12 spendingbills, they only have funding
until January the 30th.
So they have until this time toget some things going.
That's my uh angle on this one.
(39:37):
This is still developing, but Iwould watch it.
The next one, yeah.
China.
Did they buy everything they'resupposed to?
I don't think so.
We're up about close to 2.5million tons of soybean
purchased commitments.
So that's a step, but recallthat in the agreement, and
here's here's the update sincewe've had our last podcast.
(40:01):
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessonsaid that before Thanksgiving,
U.S.
and China will sign theagreement.
Well, we thought it was signedbefore.
Well, it wasn't.
Maybe this is why China has beenso reticent to talk about the
details.
They have never, China has neverconfirmed what Besson said about
(40:23):
U.S.
farm purchases.
Uh, 12 million metric tons ofsoybeans in November and
December, and 25 million tons ofsoybeans annually for 26, 27,
and 28.
Whether or not there's a uhescape clause in this signed
agreement that allows China notto purchase it is if U.S.
soybeans are not pricecompetitive, also including
(40:46):
sorghum and and wheat, becausethey've been buying some, not a
lot, sorghum and wheat.
So markets don't really thinkthat they're going to fulfill
the uh what Bessent uh says.
There, I would say most of thetraders and analysts, who are
cynical usually anyway, but theysaid China never fulfilled phase
(41:08):
one, so we don't expect them tofulfill this one.
But Trump could hold their feetto the fire because he's got a
little over three years left inhis administration.
So I wouldn't rule it totallyout yet.
But that's our little the latestupdate on the US-China
agreement.
Watch for the true signing ofthis by Thanksgiving.
SPEAKER_01 (41:29):
Let's take it on home, brother.
Milk, is it good for you?
SPEAKER_00 (41:33):
I love milk and I love whole milk.
And now it's coming back in timeto the schools because uh it
under uh the Obama, the uh yeah,Obama rule.
It wasn't part of the schoollunch program.
Now it's coming back.
We won't see immediate change,but that's a step in the right
direction for dairy.
SPEAKER_01 (41:52):
And uh milk prices hitting uh multi-year lows here
this week.
So, you know, we it's aninteresting industry.
A few not too long ago, we hadhigh milk prices 23, 24, 25.
All right, let's take it home,brother.
Wotus rule.
SPEAKER_00 (42:09):
We finally got a good Wotus rule from EPA.
They have been very at leastAlden has been good under the
deregulatory.
What did they announce?
They that it sharply limits,Tommy, what qualifies for the
Federal Clean Water Actjurisdiction.
That means many wetlands,ditches, ponds, and ephemeral uh
features that previouslytriggered federal permitting now
(42:30):
fall outside of the oversight.
That means fewer federal reviewsfor routine farm projects where
farmers are just charged apenalty uh on projects such as
tile installation, pond work,and land improvements.
Now, it's not all positive.
Court challenges are stillexpected.
Public comments will be openuntil early January next year.
(42:54):
Here's your bottom line.
For farmers, the proposal isbroadly deregulatory, it does
reduce the permitting burdensand offers actually clear rules,
believe it or not, in English.
However, it shifts moreauthority to the states.
So farmers and ranchers outthere are going to have to close
(43:15):
a better monitor their stateinstitutions, uh, their
lawmakers, to see uh whatregulatory environment they have
regular uh relative to thewaters uh uh uh WOLTUS rules at
the federal level.
That's the bottom line onWOLTUS.
SPEAKER_01 (43:32):
All right, we had a catalog feed report.
I have the uh numbers here.
It's my understanding these wereslightly bullish.
I was just looking at uh X, oneof my good friends who's on
Twitter.
He said, Great, we get a we geta slightly bullish catalon feed
and then get hit with this Tysonnews.
Uh, this is the Catalon feed onfeed, actual 97.8 placements 90,
90.0 marketing's 92.0.
(43:56):
Let's the hits never quit.
That's chart provided by NeswickTrading Group.
I am an associated person,Neswick Trading Group.
The cattle industry.
I want to finish on this note.
SPEAKER_00 (44:05):
Here, wait a minute.
Let me let me bottom line.
SPEAKER_01 (44:07):
Yeah, you're allowed to, it's your show.
SPEAKER_00 (44:09):
It's the lowest October placements on record.
Okay, really?
A little bullish there, yeah.
Yeah, and I'm just going throughnotes.
Placements, feed lots down 10%from 2024.
Net placements were just shy of2 million head.
Placements were the lowest forOctober since the series began,
(44:29):
Tommy, in 1996.
So, yeah, this is tilting to meto be a friendly report.
Marketings, you always got tolook at marketings of Fed
cattle, were 8% below a yearago.
Other disappearances 2% below ayear ago.
Total cattle on feed was in linewith the average estimate of
(44:49):
97.9 percent produced by a WallStreet Journal survey.
So this was the first tally ofcattle on feed since September
the 19th because of thegovernment shutdown.
So, yeah, I would have to saythis tilts to the uh friendly
side.
SPEAKER_01 (45:07):
All right, let's take it on home.
Tommy Grassaffi, Jim Wiesmeyer.
We had breaking news, breakingnews as we end the show.
During the show, this is tapedand will be live streamed here
in the next half hour, Fridayafternoon.
The breaking news is, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
Tyson did what?
SPEAKER_00 (45:23):
Yeah, the where was the plan in Nebraska?
Yeah, I got it over here.
Lexington.
Lexington.
SPEAKER_01 (45:29):
Oh, did we ever find out how old?
Yeah, I wonder.
Oh, that's good.
What do you say when you wantsomething?
Like my little kids.
I got it.
It was provided here from a goodfriend of mine.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer had asked, and weshall deliver.
When did that plant start?
November 1990.
90.
So it's got some age to it.
That's a year I graduated highschool.
(45:51):
Yeah, it's been a while.
About 30 uh 35 years.
Okay, Mr.
Weesmeier.
It is a pleasure and privilegeto do the show with you.
It's a rough week, especiallygetting this news.
Maybe a good week, but you gottatake us home and leave us
something optimistic.
SPEAKER_00 (46:05):
I will.
We're gonna have, we're gonnaflesh out, I guess, some more
details of the US-Chinaagreement coming up next week
during the week, and we'll blameScott Besson if we don't get it.
Two is farmers and ranchersemailing, calling in their
lawmakers into the White Housesaying, Mr.
President, we we like trade, butwe also need aid.
(46:29):
And it's not just due toexports.
This is a cash flow bind it inmany parts fueled by fertilizer
and other input cost.
We need a bridge to 2026 and weneed a solid bridge, multiple
lanes.
And I think they're hearing it.
So by early December, we'regonna get an aid package.
(46:49):
That'll be the first part.
The second part is gonna comefrom Congress, which will be
similar probably to the aidpackage that they had December
21st last year, when it totaled$10 billion.
So that's the good uh side thatwe're getting by the end of the
year, Tommy.
I think we're gonna havestability as much as you can
(47:10):
under any Trump administrationon trade policy.
As you can see, they'refine-tuning it now.
It's making more sense now.
And so let's just hope itcontinues so we can get the
government less out of the wayand let businesses have known
issues so they can know therules of the game, they know the
(47:30):
taxes are gonna be cut nextyear, so they can hire more
people, come out with moreentrepr entrepreneurial
products, and we can get thiseconomy going in fourth and
fifth gear again.
I'm gonna end it there.
SPEAKER_01 (47:45):
See ya, Jim.
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Grassofi, Eggbull Media,Eggbull Trading.
You're listening to the EggbullPodcast.
My phone's dinging and danging.
What a week.
I don't know where to start, butdon't worry.
We got it all for you.
Mr.
Weesmeyer sent his notes.
He's ready to teach class.
Enjoy the show.
Let's give this man the properintroduction.
He's so much deserved.
unknown (00:59):
Mr.
SPEAKER_01 (01:00):
Jim Wiesmeyer, happy Friday, my friend.
SPEAKER_00 (01:02):
So glad it's Friday.
We had like two weeks in oneagain.
It's called Trump on Steroids.
And we got a different approachto the news this week, Tommy.
As you well know, we're going togo through a true lightning
round of the issues that we'veidentified.
(01:22):
In case we don't have enoughtime to get through them all,
we're going to bottom line it atfirst and then come back as we
have time to decipher the topstories of the week.
SPEAKER_01 (01:34):
Let's take it at the top.
Number one, two, and three, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (01:37):
Day to catch up.
We're going to show later on.
USDA, CFTC released theirreports.
Some of the business reportsalso came out.
We had a cattle on feed reporttoday, and that was a current
report, by the way.
Tariffs.
It's a movable target.
Remember, we've been discussingthose Brazil 40 uh actually 50%
(01:59):
tariffs on coffee and and beef.
Well, they're off now.
So that's good.
SPEAKER_01 (02:06):
The third one was the EU.
SPEAKER_00 (02:09):
Yeah.
The third one, I'd have to goback to your list.
Yeah.
Potential lowering of tariffs onEU food goods.
We're going to talk about that.
Cattle may not like that.
I know NCBA doesn't, but we'lldissect that.
Our four.
Yeah.
Oh, ICE is de-emphasizing againdeportations on farms.
(02:32):
We'll bottom line what thatmeans.
H2A changes were recentlyannounced.
We're going to put a bottom lineassessment on that, but we still
need year-round dairy to uhcontribute to H2A.
Six is a biggie, tariff aid.
We're going to spend some timeon that one, Tommy.
When is it going to beannounced?
How much?
(02:53):
And what type of a program we'regoing to have for that, Tommy?
789.
There's your disaster programtoo.
Was finally announced.
We're going to have bottom linenumbers, including a question
most farmers asked me, but we'lltell you what that means.
The eighth one is the renewablefuel standard program.
(03:15):
Reuters had a story that reallysays that uh the warring
factions between the refinersand the biofuel people has
resurrected again and it maydelay some decisions.
Nine is a sensitive one.
Is Secretary Rollins at USDAtalking too much to the big
(03:36):
media?
That would be Fox News, uh FoxBusiness, CNBC, Newsmax, X,
things like that.
Some pretty good people aretelling me she needs to go out
to talk to more farmers andranchers.
And that's and I I would agreebecause she's very articulate.
More on that later.
SPEAKER_01 (03:56):
Personally, I like her a lot.
Time to take your shoes offbecause we're up to number 10,
11, and 12.
That means we can't count on ourfingers anymore.
SPEAKER_00 (04:02):
Yeah, we've got some news on the US-Mexico border
reopening.
In fact, some news that was justannounced today.
It's not overopened yet.
11, the Fed challenge.
Now we have sinking rates thatthey're going to lower rates in
December at the FOMC meeting.
12 is a December to remembercoming up on healthcare.
(04:26):
Will the Republicans andDemocrats in the White House
ever reach a deal on thoseenhanced Obamacare credits by
January 30th?
Then we'll take it home.
Will China buy all those U.S.
beans, like the Trumpadministration says, will have
something to watch out for.
Whole milk is coming back toschools, not right away, but
(04:49):
it's coming back.
That's a good thing for dairy.
And the last one, we have a newrevised and improved Wotus rule.
We'll tell you the impact.
SPEAKER_01 (05:00):
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
Hi.
I swear I'm on the show.
He's got me clicking thebuttons.
Tommy Gersafi from Valparaiso,Indiana.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
You probably wonder where thehell does Jim Wiesmeyer come
from?
Well, we got the man on thestreet, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
Let's get right in the show.
Number one, kick it off, sir.
SPEAKER_00 (05:20):
Well, those are these, and we're not going to go
through all these, but thecattle, the the commitments of
traders report, that's importantto a trader like you, Tommy, and
a lot of traders.
They wanted to, but it's goingto take a while for the CFTC to
catch up.
And that's why you see in themiddle the original published
date and now the new publisheddate.
We won't get back to snuffcurrent, that is, until early
(05:43):
next year.
That's the bottom line there.
But at least we're going to seesome of the uh big longs, big
shorts, and things like that,because that a lot of times that
sets the tone of the marketplaceon Mondays.
SPEAKER_01 (05:55):
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I got to tell you, Jim, froma trader's perspective, the uh
all these smart people, they'rejust at a loss.
I mean, these number crunchers,these geeks, these people who
live and die and sleep withExcel spreadsheets, they only
have one speed, and that's geekspeed.
They don't know how to thinkoutside the box.
That's Tommy's two cents.
No.
SPEAKER_00 (06:15):
And the FAS, we had daily export sales and the
export sales report.
And now we're going to begetting them.
So that's good because it's agood way to monitor whether
China's living up to theirpurchase commitments on it,
looks like the phase two of theU.S.
China.
More on that later, but at leastwe'll have numbers again, Tommy,
(06:37):
both on a daily and a weeklybasis.
And then NAS, we're not going togo through all those, but NAS
has a lot of reports, and thisshows you the dates at which
they're going to come out withthese reports.
Again, it's going to take sometime to get them caught up.
But some of the reports, likewe'll end with on the cattle on
feed, was actually currenttoday.
(06:59):
So that's a good thing.
We're going to get solidinformation in time from USDA
basis their surveys.
SPEAKER_01 (07:05):
Jim, if people watching or listening want that
list, where can they get itfrom?
SPEAKER_00 (07:10):
Just go Google NAS, N-A-S-S, and look under their
press releases, and it's it'sthere.
I also put it in my updatesThursday, I believe.
So you can also call up myupdates at my email, my last
name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01 (07:27):
We have it on the Agble website, Agile Intel.
Mr.
Wiesmeyers, yep, Joe Post.
SPEAKER_00 (07:31):
It's there.
We covered it live when ithappened.
I put actually I put a specialreport out.
SPEAKER_01 (07:36):
Yep, we probably put a breaking news headline on it.
Okay, back to the show.
We are Brazil.
SPEAKER_00 (07:44):
Remember how long we've been discussing those
extra 40% tariffs on top of theinitial 10% tariffs on Brazilian
coffee and and and uh beef.
Well, they finally took them offyesterday, yesterday afternoon.
They ruined my yesterdayafternoon because I had to write
a special report.
(08:04):
Now it's gonna take some timefor those products to get into
the marketplace, but I'm gonnahave cheaper coffee probably
around Christmas time.
It's gonna take probably atleast 30 days to work to the
system because there's expensiveinventory built up at
supermarkets at supermarkets.
So, but but what I what I dowant to put a policy statement
(08:26):
out in this.
What this shows you theirstrategy on the Trump trade
policy was not well thought outto begin with.
Had he kept with his initialinstinct, which was correct, on
rest on reciprocal, like tellingthe world, we're gonna treat you
the way you treat us.
Any American listener couldunderstand that.
(08:48):
Well, that's fair, but then theyadded more on, and when he got
mad at Brazil for treating theirformer president, Trump's
friend, not so good, they puthim in in jail.
He slapped an additional 40%tariffs on.
Well, that kept most of theirbeef uh out of the U.S.
(09:08):
market, and it's not highquality stuff, it's it's
hamburger.
Hamburger.
Yeah, hamburger.
So it's not going to upset theoverall meat market here and and
maybe two percent.
And but then the coffee is big.
I mean, it showed the coffeefutures really just went down a
lot because they know thatBrazil is a big coffee exporter.
(09:32):
So, but why did they do whatthey did?
Because they should have knownthat tells me they didn't have
real aggies in their strategyroom, Tommy.
Because if they did, they beenwouldn't be worried as much now
about food prices.
They're they're dropping thesetariffs for one major reason
food prices.
(09:52):
They're not going down as muchas they want to, and coffee is a
big component, and they shouldhave never put them on to begin
with.
So at least they're they'recorrecting their wrongs.
That's my bottom line on that.
SPEAKER_01 (10:05):
And then full disclosure, folks, feeder cattle
today opened, offered limit down925.
Most of the months of thefeeders offered limit down,
traded a lot down there, went upon the day, actually had a hell
of a run, and then settled down.
Now, there may be some latebreaking news this afternoon.
We don't have it yet confirmed,so I don't even want to talk
(10:27):
about it, but we do have thecommitment and traders from a
trader standpoint.
Whether you were bullish orbearish, there was something for
everyone again this gym.
SPEAKER_00 (10:36):
Yeah, it shows volatility, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01 (10:38):
Okay, I'm a trader.
Call me selfish, call me a pig,call me whatever.
(11:09):
But as a commodity trader owns aseat at the board, just get the
stuff moving.
We'll find a way to carve out alittle for ourselves.
True.
SPEAKER_00 (11:17):
Brazil, the financial time, I should say
European Union.
The Financial Times had a storyactually late last night, and I
knew when I saw it, I had tocover it this morning.
They're saying the the uh Trumpuh administration may
potentially lower further thetariffs on European food goods.
(11:39):
Well, again, why would they dothat?
Food prices.
They the the key word now inWashington, both political
parties is affordability.
Both political parties know thatbecause it was a form of the
recent elections that theDemocrats won in New Jersey and
Virginia, my home state now, andin some races in Georgia.
(12:02):
Well, they're they're thinkingwe've we've got to get more
products coming into the UnitedStates, and hopefully by
Christmas, that's what I keep onhearing from them, they think
that uh it'll help it'll startworking its way into the system.
I said earlier that I don'tthink NC National Cattlemen's
Beef Association is gonna likethat because they want better
(12:25):
trading terms for U.S.
beef, hormone-free beef, etc.,going into the EU.
And they've uh they the U.S.
has not been all that successfulin increasing beefs, uh, our our
beef going into the um EU.
So watch this one.
It's not confirmed yet, but theFinancial Times is a pretty good
(12:46):
publication.
SPEAKER_01 (12:47):
Yeah, I I like that from uh worldview.
Number four, sir.
ICE.
This is very you know, a lot ofpeople get revved up about this.
SPEAKER_00 (12:54):
Well, now they're going back, they it keeps on
flipping, but the White Househas signaled that ICE, that's
your customs enforcement.
Recently, they appeared to backoff from conducting ag workplace
raids.
Uh, and uh even as it's asscours democratic-led cities for
immigrants who are in thecountry illegally.
(13:17):
Well, that's kind of a good noask, uh, don't ask, don't tell,
Tommy.
Let's hope they they continuethat, because most of those
illegal immigrants in farmcountry most are not criminals.
So, and they're finding out atthe White House, at the National
Economic Council and elsewherewho are not agriculture
(13:40):
oriented, that agriculture needsworkers.
So that'll be good for thespecialty crops industry, not so
much the grains, maybe maybe themeat packers, absolutely.
So that's a good thing as far ashaving having the right number
of people.
And along with that, we haveanother one, Tommy, on that one.
Uh, is the H2A changes.
(14:02):
Now, recently the Trumpadministration eased labor
shortages on farms via uhchanges to that H2A visa program
that allows in more than a fewagricultural workers, about
420,000 every year since 2023,Tommy.
However, they they they need alot more.
(14:26):
So they've increased that.
So you're gonna see a dramaticincrease in the number of
seasonal workers coming in towork on U.S.
farms.
But dairy is still not helpedall that because they need
year-round workers.
So we still need either anadministrative decision or a
(14:47):
congressional law on that one.
But at least they're moving inthe right direction to get the
people so those specialty crops.
SPEAKER_01 (14:56):
Sugar, my friends up in North Dakota, they just got
done with the uh harvesting thesugar beets.
They could not do.
I talked to one of my largeclients, one of the largest
sugar beet growers.
Two things he wanted me to tellyou.
One, he watches, and two, theytook a butt-kicking this year.
The price of sugar in the worldhas collapsed, and the uh beet
(15:17):
growers of the uh Red RiverValley absolutely taking a
beaten this year when it comesto uh markets.
They're they're very, veryworried about the financial uh
security of the sugar growth.
SPEAKER_00 (15:27):
Well, we're gonna get into that.
I don't know whether it's thenext one or not, as far as the
downturn and the aid packagecoming, but we'll get into that.
We are that was a good bridge,Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (15:38):
You're very good, Mr.
Weesmeyer.
We're gonna have you back nextweek.
SPEAKER_00 (15:41):
Look at this.
This chart comes from Texas AMUniversity.
My good economist, Dr.
Joe Outlaw and Dr.
Bart Fisher.
I'm very good friends with bothof them.
SPEAKER_01 (15:52):
I wonder if they say the same.
SPEAKER_00 (15:54):
Bart would.
I don't know about Dr.
Outlaw, but anyway, look atthese bar charts going down.
You don't want them to go down.
These are the losses per acre.
The blue is 2024, and the maroonor orange or whatever we want to
call it is 2025.
And look at cotton.
Wow, look at rice.
(16:16):
I mean, there's a world of hurt.
Oats and things, and even evencorn and soybeans are just 100
to 200 an acre losses.
So if if if I were to add sugar,and they even mentioned this in
Southern Ag Today, that TexasAM, they even mentioned the
downturn in sugar.
So I will definitely acknowledgethat that whenever they come out
(16:40):
with the aid program, we'll getinto that very shortly.
They better include sugar onthat.
And let's go to the next chartbecause this comes, nope, we had
one on from FarmDoc.
The the employment.
SPEAKER_01 (16:53):
I don't think we slipped that in that.
Okay, that's all right.
SPEAKER_00 (16:56):
Well, anyway, we're gonna get a chunk of money for
the 2025 crop, but that won'tcome until the fall of next
year.
So that's why we need an aidprogram.
Now let's discuss the keyfeatures of the coming aid
program.
Uh USDA secretary Brooke Rollinssaid today that now it's gonna
(17:16):
come out in early December.
Now you'll recall before thegovernment shutdown, 43 days,
she was saying it's gonna beannounced very soon.
But now that the and then shesaid, well, when the government
reopens, well, the governmenthas reopened.
Where's the aid program?
Well, she told Bloomberg and acouple of other people this week
(17:39):
that now it's gonna come inearly December.
Have things changed?
What I've been able it, it itwas the total of the program was
gonna be about 12 or 13 billiondollars.
But now I'm starting to hearthey've changed the focus of the
program.
They've looked at some of theprice run-up, like soybeans have
(18:00):
gone up, what, a dollar to adollar, a dollar and a half at
one point.
A dollar and a half at onepoint.
Now, and so they're it they maybe scaling down, not out.
We're gonna have an aid package,but farmers are saying, what are
they talking about?
Because the government was shutdown.
We were we were forced in somecases to market some of our
(18:24):
commodities for cash flowbecause we couldn't put it, we
couldn't get a marketingassistant loan because they
weren't offering them.
So they're they're readjusting.
I they I don't think they knowhow they're going to strategize
the program.
Some people within the Trumpadministration want to target on
(18:44):
China and trade if you if thecommodities have been hurt by
exports.
Others want to say, no, farmershave a cash flow problem.
They're they're debt repayments.
We've talked about that over thepast few weeks.
This is not should not just bean export program.
And if it was just focused onexports, corn has a record corn
(19:08):
exports year going on.
Does that mean they don't getanything?
So you can see the dilemma.
And all I know is there'spolitics involved here, too,
because the ag community, notjust farmers, the rural
community, uh, for a group wasthe largest uh sector that voted
(19:28):
for President Trump.
His first term in office, his uhdefeat on Biden, and all and his
coming back under Trump 2.0.
So there's a lot of farmers whowill be upset if this is not
deemed as enough support.
I don't want to tell you, I didhear numbers under$10 billion
(19:50):
this week, but I think they're Iknow they're still discussing it
and they're seeing some of theresponses in uh on the news
wires.
And I know in my writing whatfarmers are saying, like they
they're more than upset if thisis not a viable program to
bridge them, Tommy, into 2026.
(20:11):
That that's all the USDofficials have said that.
They know that.
Now, what they could do is whenthey do announce it in early
December, maybe they can getHouse Ad Committee Chairman GT
Thompson from Pennsylvania,Bozeman from Arkansas, and to
say, okay, our our aid programis just an initial down payment.
(20:33):
Congress, much like they did in2024, December 21st, to be
exact, when they legislated$10billion in farmer aid and about
$20 billion in ag disaster aid,but that was for 23 and 24
crops.
Maybe they'll do that, but we'llsee.
But all I want to point out,this is my bottom line, they're
(20:56):
still discussing it becausethey've seen the impact of the
soybean price runup, but thathas not helped uh corn all that
much, and it hasn't helpedsorghum, even though China has
purchased some sorghum Milo andcotton.
I can't tell you how thehorrible stories I'm hearing on
(21:16):
cotton.
You saw that in the bar chart,where their prices are stuck at
62 cents, where when China wasinto the marketplace, they were
in the 90 cent or higher area.
So aid is coming.
We don't know how much anymore,and we don't know their concept
of the aid program, whetherit'll be export-oriented or will
(21:39):
it be to help farmers bridgeinto 2026 and help them make
make some debt payments.
SPEAKER_01 (21:45):
Jim, we have breaking news.
I don't want to say it yet, butyoung Lindsay just popped in the
show.
She's adding a slide, it's notgood, and I'm not happy about
it.
But while we're talking, folks,if you'd like to catch anything,
we'll pull that up in onesecond, Joe.
We'll pull that up in onesecond.
If you'd like Jim Wiesmeyer'sstuff, yeah, yeah.
Joe, a little fast on the grip,but that's right.
(22:06):
We still love him.
All right.
If you want to get Mr.
Wiesmeyer's newsletter,Wiesmeyer at gmail.com.
You can go to www.agbull.
We're posting his stories asfast as he's putting them out.
This is free.
This is the best doggone thingin the internet.
There's nothing better.
Matter of fact, they see a lotof other people and agriculture
(22:26):
people cutting and pasting anddoing all that stuff and
publishing his stuff.
But that's all right.
That's just uh what do you callthat?
Uh flattery is the uhcompliment, right?
SPEAKER_00 (22:36):
I'm I'm too yeah, I'm too busy going on to the
next story.
But can we put that one liner upagain on Tyson?
SPEAKER_01 (22:42):
Yeah, yeah, and we got some graphics to uh back it
up, I believe.
This just came out.
This is what I was worried wasgonna happen.
It is confirmed.
Tyson to shut down a beefprocessing plant in Lexington,
Nebraska.
I heard oh, I I lost my uh mycamera here.
We'll get I'll pop back in here.
Where is where am I here?
(23:04):
I'm in the show here.
SPEAKER_00 (23:06):
So let's get some but perspective on this one.
Now, this tells you some of thehurt that it's just not limited
to farmers and ranchers.
They the ag business industry isgoing through some trend, some,
some, some negative times aswell.
When you look at farm machinery,when you look at the the meat
packers and things like that.
(23:26):
And I don't know whether this ispart of it, but it probably is.
And I never like to see a plantclose because that means less
competition, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (23:35):
It's not good.
This is one of the side effectsof Joe.
Do you see where the graphic is?
I I don't oh, I do see it.
Okay, right here, Tyson,Lexington.
Folks, I'm reading it here.
Here's what we have here.
I I do have a little verbiage.
Would you like me to read it?
I would, yes.
Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna pop onand I'm gonna do my best to read
it.
(23:56):
Joe, you could pull off thatgraphic.
I'm having a hard time.
I got it right here.
Okay, here I am.
Tommy Grossoffee, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
Folks, if you're enjoying theshow, tell a friend about it.
All right, this isn't the bestnews ever, but uh, I'm gonna
read what I have, so sorry forlooking down here.
Tyson to close one of thebiggest beef processing plants
in the U.S.
Tyson Foods, America's largestmeat supplier, is planning to
(24:17):
close one of the largest beefprocessing plants in Nebraska at
a time when a cattle shortage inthe U.S.
squeezes meatpacking companies.
This Lexington, this Lexington,Nebraska plant employs roughly
3,000 people and can slaughteralmost 5,000 cattle a day,
according to industry experts.
Tyson is the first of the bigfour meatpacking companies that
(24:40):
process 85% of the beef in theU.S.
to close a major plant duringthe current cattle supply
crunch.
Meat packers, including Tyson,have been losing hundreds of
millions of dollars processingbeef because of the lowest
amount of cattle in U.S.
pastures since 1956.
Tyson said earlier this month,this is the cattle, this is the
cattle cost for the 2025 fiscalyear ended in a September, rose
(25:03):
nearly by 2 billion comparedwith the prior year, meaning
that the price of cattles wentup so much this was their cost
to go buy it, equivalent to likejet fuel going crazy, and the
airlines lose money when crudeoil is$130.
The same thing happened.
Record price is great for theperson raising the beef, but
there's an effect, folks.
This is why we got to get backto economics.
(25:24):
Mr.
SPEAKER_00 (25:24):
We know how old is this plant?
Do they say?
SPEAKER_01 (25:27):
No, but Jojo's there quick on the draw.
We'll find out.
I do have another friend who'stexting me stuff.
You go ahead, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
I'd like your perspective.
SPEAKER_00 (25:38):
Well, I want to I want to know how why did they
choose this particular plant?
And I want to see the efficiencyof it.
I don't know, but they I thinkthey were forced to do from
their stockholders and thingslike that.
This is called a retrenchment inthe ag sector.
This is just another solid signthat the industry needs help.
(25:59):
And we may they're taking stepsto increase the uh number of
cattle coming in so they canprocess them, and that'll get us
into the Mexico situationshortly.
SPEAKER_01 (26:12):
Okay.
Well, we were going through thenumbers and I saw this breaking
news came in.
Of course, if you want to learnmore, Jim's gonna have breaking
stories about this this weekthis weekend.
We smire at gmail.com.
Um I'll have it this afternoon.
I'm getting more stories.
I'm getting more stories textingme that the border will be
reopening for December 1st aswell.
(26:33):
News next week.
That is not confirmed, but thatis something that's being texted
to me.
Jim, I lost track.
What what doggone number were weon?
We did TRF say this one.
I feel like we're at RFS with uhno no no.
SPEAKER_00 (26:49):
We we need the we need to go back.
What was six?
SPEAKER_01 (26:53):
Well, we went through this.
SPEAKER_00 (26:54):
Yeah, we did that one.
We did that one, so let's go toseven.
Bottom line, stage one isalready paid out five point
seven billion dollars.
That leaves ten billion forstage two.
That's a specialty crops andquality issues.
There's a 35% factor, so thatthey're they're estimating
they're gonna spend$2.7 billionfor stage two, five million for
(27:18):
storage payments, and uh$1.65million for MLP dairy.
Now, the sign-up ends April30th.
Now, this will save a lot ofemails to me.
Okay, like why do they only do35%?
They're gonna have money leftover, so we're gonna get a
top-up payment for both stageone and stage two, but it can't
(27:38):
come until after they know thetotal amount they're gonna spend
for stage two.
And since signup goes untilApril 30th, we've got a few
months before we get a top-uppayment.
But a top-up payment will come,Tommy.
That's the bottom line on SDRP.
SPEAKER_01 (27:56):
Number eight.
SPEAKER_00 (27:57):
Oh, the renewable fuel standard program is always
complex.
But Reuters had a story aboutmidweek saying that White House
was mulling, delaying until 27or 28 their initial proposal of
EPA to provide only 50%, halfthe RIN values on biofuels made
from imported feedstocks,because that was going to make
(28:19):
the refiners use more U.S.
products.
But that was proposed for the 26and 27 renewable fuel standard
levels.
But now they're also deciding onthe level of those reallocation
of the RFS obligation mandatesaffected by those special
refinery uh announcements thatwe've seen.
(28:41):
And all this is going to affect26 and 27 mandated levels.
So this is yeah, EPA, LeeZeldon.
So I think we're not going toget news until December at the
earliest, and they may even gointo January before we get some
more renewable fuel standardnews and also news about these
(29:01):
RINs.
And also, as I said, 45Zprogram.
So look at the the this is whatfrustrates the industry because
if you have a challenge onexports because of China and
tariffs, you have to increaseyour domestic utilization.
(29:22):
Well, that makes the renewablefuel standards so important, it
makes E-15 year-round soimportant for corn-based
ethanol, and California won'treally get going now until late
2026 or 27 on their E-15 pledgeand new law.
And then the 45Z program,sustainable aviation fuel, we
(29:45):
may not get the details on thatuntil the spring of 2026,
because the Treasury Department,IRS, because it's a tax
incentive, is really bogged downtrying to implement the one big
beautiful bill tax incentivesthat was part of that
legislation signed July 4th.
So that's another frustration onthe part of U.S.
(30:08):
agriculture producers, becausethey're saying we've got to
increase this domesticutilization, but the rules and
regulations are dragging theirfeet, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01 (30:19):
Yep, you take a minute to uh clear your throat.
All right, I'll read this one.
You get cleaned up over there.
Is Rollins taking too much toobig media, but not Aggies?
I do understand what you meanhere.
Too much time on Fox News, FoxBusiness, CNBC, True Social X.
I've met Secretary Vag Rollins,she was Awesome.
I like her a lot.
And uh the stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00 (30:40):
Diddle.
She's she is the most articulateag secretary in my long career
since Earl Butts.
And that goes way back to the70s.
SPEAKER_01 (30:50):
We're gonna farm fence post to fence post, Dr.
Earl Butts.
SPEAKER_00 (30:54):
Well, Earl at the time said he didn't say it, the
market was saying it, but that'show he tried to defend himself.
But we digress.
But I think uh I've heard fromfarmers saying they they think
that the secretary, veryarticulate, very nice person,
very knowledgeable, uh, veryclose to President Trump.
(31:15):
She needs to get out more intofarm country to talk and listen
to farmers and ranchers andagribusiness people.
I understand the the element ofgoing on Fox News and Fox
Business News and CNBC.
As I've said before, a lot ofthe cabinet people, Scott
Bessent, Kevin Hassett atNational Economic Council, they
(31:39):
go on the same programs, butthey're really talking not to
the industry, Tommy.
They're talking to their boss,President Trump, because they
know he watches those programs.
So that's kind of their way tosend message grams to so the
president knows what they'redoing.
But it's got to be balanced.
An ag secretary should go out,and she can do it.
(32:01):
I've seen her her first monthwas very good when she met with
more than a few uh farm groupsand farmers and ranchers.
She just needs to continue.
And so let's hope she does.
SPEAKER_01 (32:14):
US Mexico border reopened.
SPEAKER_00 (32:16):
This gets us into, yeah.
Now you had said there was aspeculation that December that
the border could be reopened.
SPEAKER_01 (32:22):
Yeah, that's what I'm hearing on my little text
here.
SPEAKER_00 (32:24):
I don't have it uh that's another thing I've got to
check because they had been uhinitially talking the last few
weeks, by the way, of a Januaryreopening.
But I will tell you this a fewweeks ago, when Ag Secretary
Rollins was at the White Housetalking to Trump, Trump told
her, because he wants thoselower, lower beef prices, he
(32:46):
said, I want that U.S.
Mexico border opened.
And she wasn't going to say no,but she said, Mr.
President, I'm paraphrasinghere, we'll we'll get a plan in
place.
They have to make sure ofcertain protocols and things
like that.
Well, that takes a little while,but they're gearing up, they
were gearing up for it.
We had some announcement thatthere was an integrated
(33:09):
government site now that you cango to for the screw worms.
So that's just anotherindication, Tommy, that they're
that they're getting ready toopen up that border.
Now I want to go through when itis down, what what impact will
it have?
SPEAKER_01 (33:26):
I mean, look at what's happened this week.
Taking off the tariffs, Jim.
Let's just talk about a littlebit.
Taking off the tariffs onBrazil.
Last week it was the 10%, nowthe 40%.
There's still some type oftariff on them, but that can
change.
Allowing the slowly allowing theMexican border open.
I think also last week when wetook off the tariffs, that might
have eased some pressure fromthe Canadians up north.
You want to talk about that alittle bit?
SPEAKER_00 (33:46):
Well, I want to talk about the impact of when we
reopen the border on a phasedin.
It's not going to be reopenedright away.
They're going to test certainsafer areas, but I've been told
by good analysts only 200 to400,000 head may currently be
available for export.
That's far less than some of themarket rumors imply that up to a
(34:09):
million head.
The reason Mexican feedlotsappear to be substituting
cheaper Mexican cattle for theirtypical Central American
imports, they've had improvedrainfall, so it's given
producers more flexibility tohold cattle.
And the spade heifer exports areessentially off the table
because the export window istight and the border timing was
(34:32):
too late for some of them.
So it may not have as negativeimpact initially as the market
thought.
We'll get some of those analysesconfirmed once that border is a
phased-in reopening.
As far as Canada, I'm not quitesure I got your question.
SPEAKER_01 (34:51):
That's okay.
I just that things are easing upall over.
That what I'm trying to say is,and we could sum it up at the
end of the show, is five, sixweeks ago, ten weeks ago, when
we were doing this, and cattlehad its biggest up week almost
ever in history.
We were having bullish news ontop of bullish news, on top of
bullish news, on top of morebullish news, and now it's
(35:12):
reversing.
It's one, and I looked at myphone, you should see the the ex
Twitter blowing up.
Great, another blow to thecattlemen, another blow to the
cattle when maybe this is wewent from the best of times to I
don't want to say the worst oftimes, but I would already say,
and I'll say it on the screen,the cattle industry is entering
a challenging time.
If you have a problem with that,drop a comment down below.
SPEAKER_00 (35:34):
Yeah, and also it tends to signal that we won't uh
make new hives, right?
Is that a safe assessment?
SPEAKER_01 (35:41):
I won't be buying it and running and gunning for it,
but I will say that thefundamentals, we are still short
on beef here, but we're cominginto Thanksgiving, which you
know is a chicken, turkey pasta,you know, something else,
anything but beef.
I like having beef on that.
Speaking of beef, sometimes youhave a beef with this guy,
right?
SPEAKER_00 (35:59):
Uh Jerome J.
Powell.
I say my speech is he's a smartguy, but when it comes to
interest rates, he's dumb.
Okay.
And too many Fed governors,that's part of the Federal Open
Market Committee, FLMC, are nowsignaling, well, maybe we better
not cut December the 10th whenthe next FOMC meeting is.
On the futures market, odds of aDecember cut sank to 32.7
(36:24):
percent earlier this week.
It was 50 a little over 50percent on Tuesday and a lot
higher even earlier.
And that got into the equitiesmarket too, Tommy, because the
market the equities want lower,lower rates to to further put
the U.S.
economy into fourth or fifthgear.
And they're not gonna, it lookslike they may not get it now in
(36:45):
December.
But I'll tell you, if they don'tcut in December, their next cut
is gonna be 50 basis points.
Remember, I told you that.
SPEAKER_01 (36:53):
Okay, all right.
And I do have something I wantto well, we'll revisit.
I do have the answer to yourquestion on the Tyson plant.
Yes, and I want to go over thatat the end of the show, and I'll
explain to you why.
Take a second to clear yourthroat.
I'm gonna go full screen on meand I'm gonna mute your
microphone.
You go ahead and cough all youwant, folks.
Thank you for watching.
My name is Tommy Grossafi, ownerof AgBo Media, Agbol Trading.
(37:16):
If you're enjoying this content,yeah, this is an infomercial
www.agbol.com.
We have premium content$25 amonth,$250 a year.
You could see a save a littlethere if you go for the whole
year.
Mr.
Weissmeyer's show will always befree, but we think we have a
couple sponsors lined up.
But premium content that we'reproducing all week, text on
(37:36):
actionable alerts and breakingnews, you get all that and a
whole bunch more.
Head over to the Agbol website.
With that, let's bring in thestar of the show.
I think he cleared his throat.
SPEAKER_00 (37:44):
I did try it.
SPEAKER_01 (37:45):
It's not easy, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
SPEAKER_00 (37:46):
Just dry, just dry.
I did well.
This is this is my happy hourtime, so my old fashion is
waiting for me.
SPEAKER_01 (37:53):
Speaking of old fashioned, the uh I was able to
pick up a couple bottles of uhBlantons this week.
It's uh getting a little easierto get supply and demand, folks.
Okay, we went over the border.
I got the Fed.
We got December to remember.
What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00 (38:06):
That's the Affordable Care Act and the
Obamacare, because you'll seeyou'll recall that was the
biggest part of the uh 43-dayshutdown.
Now, the Senate uh majorityleader John Thune, Republican
from South Dakota, promised theDemocrats there would be a vote
in mid-December in the Senate.
The House never did confirm avote that on dealing with those
(38:31):
enhanced Obamacare uh taxincentives.
So this really has 2026 electionyear impacts.
And Trump now has been talkingto some Democrats.
So there's something going on onthis one.
The trouble is there's noconsensus on the Republican
position.
They have talked for yearstrying to come up with an
(38:52):
alternative to Obamacare, andthey've never been able to.
Most people tell me they see aone or two-year extension of the
enhanced ACA credits, Obamacare,with some reform, maybe a means
testing and some other reforms.
Is that enough to get it throughthe House?
Because know that January 30th,this continuing resolution of
(39:16):
spending for the government tokeep uh going for nine agencies,
not including USDA has theirappropriations done, thank
goodness.
But for nine of the 12 spendingbills, they only have funding
until January the 30th.
So they have until this time toget some things going.
That's my uh angle on this one.
(39:37):
This is still developing, but Iwould watch it.
The next one, yeah.
China.
Did they buy everything they'resupposed to?
I don't think so.
We're up about close to 2.5million tons of soybean
purchased commitments.
So that's a step, but recallthat in the agreement, and
here's here's the update sincewe've had our last podcast.
(40:01):
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessonsaid that before Thanksgiving,
U.S.
and China will sign theagreement.
Well, we thought it was signedbefore.
Well, it wasn't.
Maybe this is why China has beenso reticent to talk about the
details.
They have never, China has neverconfirmed what Besson said about
(40:23):
U.S.
farm purchases.
Uh, 12 million metric tons ofsoybeans in November and
December, and 25 million tons ofsoybeans annually for 26, 27,
and 28.
Whether or not there's a uhescape clause in this signed
agreement that allows China notto purchase it is if U.S.
soybeans are not pricecompetitive, also including
(40:46):
sorghum and and wheat, becausethey've been buying some, not a
lot, sorghum and wheat.
So markets don't really thinkthat they're going to fulfill
the uh what Bessent uh says.
There, I would say most of thetraders and analysts, who are
cynical usually anyway, but theysaid China never fulfilled phase
(41:08):
one, so we don't expect them tofulfill this one.
But Trump could hold their feetto the fire because he's got a
little over three years left inhis administration.
So I wouldn't rule it totallyout yet.
But that's our little the latestupdate on the US-China
agreement.
Watch for the true signing ofthis by Thanksgiving.
SPEAKER_01 (41:29):
Let's take it on home, brother.
Milk, is it good for you?
SPEAKER_00 (41:33):
I love milk and I love whole milk.
And now it's coming back in timeto the schools because uh it
under uh the Obama, the uh yeah,Obama rule.
It wasn't part of the schoollunch program.
Now it's coming back.
We won't see immediate change,but that's a step in the right
direction for dairy.
SPEAKER_01 (41:52):
And uh milk prices hitting uh multi-year lows here
this week.
So, you know, we it's aninteresting industry.
A few not too long ago, we hadhigh milk prices 23, 24, 25.
All right, let's take it home,brother.
Wotus rule.
SPEAKER_00 (42:09):
We finally got a good Wotus rule from EPA.
They have been very at leastAlden has been good under the
deregulatory.
What did they announce?
They that it sharply limits,Tommy, what qualifies for the
Federal Clean Water Actjurisdiction.
That means many wetlands,ditches, ponds, and ephemeral uh
features that previouslytriggered federal permitting now
(42:30):
fall outside of the oversight.
That means fewer federal reviewsfor routine farm projects where
farmers are just charged apenalty uh on projects such as
tile installation, pond work,and land improvements.
Now, it's not all positive.
Court challenges are stillexpected.
Public comments will be openuntil early January next year.
(42:54):
Here's your bottom line.
For farmers, the proposal isbroadly deregulatory, it does
reduce the permitting burdensand offers actually clear rules,
believe it or not, in English.
However, it shifts moreauthority to the states.
So farmers and ranchers outthere are going to have to close
(43:15):
a better monitor their stateinstitutions, uh, their
lawmakers, to see uh whatregulatory environment they have
regular uh relative to thewaters uh uh uh WOLTUS rules at
the federal level.
That's the bottom line onWOLTUS.
SPEAKER_01 (43:32):
All right, we had a catalog feed report.
I have the uh numbers here.
It's my understanding these wereslightly bullish.
I was just looking at uh X, oneof my good friends who's on
Twitter.
He said, Great, we get a we geta slightly bullish catalon feed
and then get hit with this Tysonnews.
Uh, this is the Catalon feed onfeed, actual 97.8 placements 90,
90.0 marketing's 92.0.
(43:56):
Let's the hits never quit.
That's chart provided by NeswickTrading Group.
I am an associated person,Neswick Trading Group.
The cattle industry.
I want to finish on this note.
SPEAKER_00 (44:05):
Here, wait a minute.
Let me let me bottom line.
SPEAKER_01 (44:07):
Yeah, you're allowed to, it's your show.
SPEAKER_00 (44:09):
It's the lowest October placements on record.
Okay, really?
A little bullish there, yeah.
Yeah, and I'm just going throughnotes.
Placements, feed lots down 10%from 2024.
Net placements were just shy of2 million head.
Placements were the lowest forOctober since the series began,
(44:29):
Tommy, in 1996.
So, yeah, this is tilting to meto be a friendly report.
Marketings, you always got tolook at marketings of Fed
cattle, were 8% below a yearago.
Other disappearances 2% below ayear ago.
Total cattle on feed was in linewith the average estimate of
(44:49):
97.9 percent produced by a WallStreet Journal survey.
So this was the first tally ofcattle on feed since September
the 19th because of thegovernment shutdown.
So, yeah, I would have to saythis tilts to the uh friendly
side.
SPEAKER_01 (45:07):
All right, let's take it on home.
Tommy Grassaffi, Jim Wiesmeyer.
We had breaking news, breakingnews as we end the show.
During the show, this is tapedand will be live streamed here
in the next half hour, Fridayafternoon.
The breaking news is, Mr.
Wiesmeyer.
Tyson did what?
SPEAKER_00 (45:23):
Yeah, the where was the plan in Nebraska?
Yeah, I got it over here.
Lexington.
Lexington.
SPEAKER_01 (45:29):
Oh, did we ever find out how old?
Yeah, I wonder.
Oh, that's good.
What do you say when you wantsomething?
Like my little kids.
I got it.
It was provided here from a goodfriend of mine.
Mr.
Wiesmeyer had asked, and weshall deliver.
When did that plant start?
November 1990.
90.
So it's got some age to it.
That's a year I graduated highschool.
(45:51):
Yeah, it's been a while.
About 30 uh 35 years.
Okay, Mr.
Weesmeier.
It is a pleasure and privilegeto do the show with you.
It's a rough week, especiallygetting this news.
Maybe a good week, but you gottatake us home and leave us
something optimistic.
SPEAKER_00 (46:05):
I will.
We're gonna have, we're gonnaflesh out, I guess, some more
details of the US-Chinaagreement coming up next week
during the week, and we'll blameScott Besson if we don't get it.
Two is farmers and ranchersemailing, calling in their
lawmakers into the White Housesaying, Mr.
President, we we like trade, butwe also need aid.
(46:29):
And it's not just due toexports.
This is a cash flow bind it inmany parts fueled by fertilizer
and other input cost.
We need a bridge to 2026 and weneed a solid bridge, multiple
lanes.
And I think they're hearing it.
So by early December, we'regonna get an aid package.
(46:49):
That'll be the first part.
The second part is gonna comefrom Congress, which will be
similar probably to the aidpackage that they had December
21st last year, when it totaled$10 billion.
So that's the good uh side thatwe're getting by the end of the
year, Tommy.
I think we're gonna havestability as much as you can
(47:10):
under any Trump administrationon trade policy.
As you can see, they'refine-tuning it now.
It's making more sense now.
And so let's just hope itcontinues so we can get the
government less out of the wayand let businesses have known
issues so they can know therules of the game, they know the
(47:30):
taxes are gonna be cut nextyear, so they can hire more
people, come out with moreentrepr entrepreneurial
products, and we can get thiseconomy going in fourth and
fifth gear again.
I'm gonna end it there.
SPEAKER_01 (47:45):
See ya, Jim.
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