October 31, 2025 • 33 mins
We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.
• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning mid November
• Fed uncertainty keeps dollar firm and bonds soft
• soybean rally on China purchase floors and port relief
• tariff tweaks, rare earth delay, and export logistics
• $13bn CCC shift toward trade aid and formula impacts
• biofuels, RFS volumes, and 45Z as domestic demand engine
• cattle volatility, Argentine beef optics, and sticky retail prices
• FMC slide as a warning for inputs and LATAM credit
• basis improvements at PNW and NOLA as demand signal
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gristoffy, Eggbow Media,Eggbow Trading, the Eggbow
Podcast.
We have the one and only JimWiesmeyer.
He's queued up, but we got togive him that introduction that
this man deserves.
He worked harder, probably, thananyone in DC because they're not
working.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_01 (00:48):
Mr.
Weissmeyer.
We've got late breaking newsanalysis.
We're ready to go, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (00:55):
Let's do it.
We got a lot of a lot of road tocover in a short time to get
there.
SPEAKER_01 (00:59):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (01:00):
All right.
Well, if I had to talk aboutsomething, I guess I would
probably cue up this one, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08):
Government shutdown.
I think we could actually see anend to this by the end of next
week.
Why?
Why do I say that?
Tuesday's elections.
We have governor races inVirginia, my home state now, and
New Jersey.
And I think the Democrats wantto get through those elections.
They think they're going to winboth.
(01:28):
I'm not quite sure in New Jerseyif they're going to win that,
but we'll see.
Either way, I think they'regoing to be close.
But then they get them out ofthe way.
They lose the argument afterSaturday because that's when the
uh schedule increases.
That's when the the the uh thesnap funding ends, although
there's late-breaking news onthat, that a judge just ordered
(01:52):
the Trump administration to usefive and a half billion dollars
to partially fund those expiringfood stamp payments.
But the Democrats lose theirargument on the Obamacare
increase because those thosenotices are going out now.
(02:12):
So they're hurting themselvesthe longer they keep the
government closed.
So hopefully there'll be give onboth sides.
The Republicans will have togive, maybe some future vote on
some portion of Obamacare uhreform.
But I'm I'm getting moreconfident that by the end of
next week we're gonna see thegovernment back.
SPEAKER_00 (02:33):
So you don't think the government's gonna become a
Halloween store, Jim?
SPEAKER_01 (02:36):
It will to tonight.
SPEAKER_00 (02:38):
Tonight.
What are you gonna be forHalloween?
SPEAKER_01 (02:42):
Oh, I sit, I like I go with my cat.
My cat sits at the door, andhe's she, I should say, she
watches all those people incostumes and she loves
Halloween.
SPEAKER_00 (02:54):
Very good.
So you're sure we're not gonnabecome the dollar store in the
capital.
We are all right.
You've been uh boy, if peoplehave been listening to you the
last 10, 12 weeks, we've beendoing this.
They've they've had someinteresting opportunities.
All right.
SPEAKER_01 (03:11):
Partial reopening of USDA offices.
Remember, they had they calledtwo people back each.
Now, it's been a roughreopening, and and I don't fault
the farm service agencies.
And I've I've had more than afew emails from farmers, and I
understand their frustrationbecause the inability to get
some farmer payments, includingmarketing assistant loans.
(03:35):
But whenever you shut down thegovernment, especially at the
beginning of a fiscal year, ittakes longer and it takes a week
to 10 days, and that's where weare uh since they recalled those
FSA two people per office back.
And so I think hopefully overthe weekend, in fact, I think
(03:55):
some of these payments are goingto be uh starting to be made,
Tommy.
That's a good thing.
Let's hope I'm right.
Let's hope I'm right.
SPEAKER_00 (04:03):
That's a real good thing.
SPEAKER_01 (04:05):
All right.
Then we have some on theshutdown.
Nope, we have the shutdown.
We have let's go through thelist of the government shutdowns
to show how many times that thelist?
Yeah, there's there's the list.
Look at that.
How many times, what 13, 14?
There's been a vote in theSenate on on voting for a clean
(04:28):
uh continuing resolution, andit's been voted down each time.
But you can see as we get intoNovember now, we've got some
critical dates here, both on theSNAP funding, which again, as we
speak, a judge came out andsaid, USDA, we're forcing you to
use the five and a half billiondollars in contingency funds.
(04:50):
And hopefully you can lookaround and find some other
funding in order to continuethose much needed food stamp
programs.
And then, as I said before, wehave the Obamacare increases,
uh, 30% or more in increases.
So that's why we're going tohave a solution to that.
But then the next one, Tommy,bring up we've got late breaking
(05:12):
news.
NAS, National Statistics Servicecame out with just this on their
site.
They're going, they will releasekey data in November.
The military.
SPEAKER_00 (05:22):
This is a big deal, Jim.
And you know what?
All right, let's give it thebreaking news.
SPEAKER_01 (05:27):
Yeah, yeah.
It is because look at cropproduction normally was going to
come out November the 10th.
Now it's going to come outNovember the 14th, for sure.
Okay.
And then the WASD report willcome out the same date.
Now they'll also have the milkproduction, cattle on feed, and
and uh, etc.
(05:48):
But why you know why did thisoccur?
They had to find money fromsomewhere.
Where's the money coming from?
Why did this happen?
Staff, NAS staff are beingrecalled because we need the
reports for farm service agencyactivities.
Okay.
I was told.
So that's a little exclusive forus right now.
(06:12):
I would imagine that they foundmoney either in the Commodity
Credit Corporation or theshifting of funds.
Again, there are billions ofdollars in every agency.
SPEAKER_00 (06:22):
I wish I could find money like that, partner.
SPEAKER_01 (06:24):
Yes, I know, that are floating around and they
found it.
But that's good news because themarket now is going to have some
data for the crop size, the cornand soybean crops, and the WASDI
on the demand side.
It's going to be interesting tosee what they say on China,
Tommy, with the news that we'regoing to talk about later on on
(06:46):
whether or not they uh increaseU.S.
soybean exports as a result ofthe Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
uh agreements that were thatwere announced this week.
SPEAKER_00 (06:57):
Now we get to uh if you're a saver, you're making
less.
And if you're if you're aborrower, you're paying less.
SPEAKER_01 (07:05):
Yeah, but you'll pay less in the future.
But we don't know about Decemberbecause the curmudgeon, our Fed
chairman, Jerome J.
Powell, put a little fuzzinessin the uh.
Yeah, yeah.
And so uh we had wideexpectations that they were
gonna have another cut in theDecember Fed Open Market
(07:25):
Committee, that's FOMC, inDecember.
Now it's still over 50 percent,but we're not as sure.
So because they don't have thedata yet.
SPEAKER_00 (07:34):
Note what this young man said, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (07:36):
Uh yeah, well, that's Jerome J.
Powell.
I he's I'm uh as I always say,he's smart, but he's dumb when
it comes to interest rates, youknow.
Just he just it's behind thecurve.
He's the one who said that theinflation was transitory, it
wasn't, and they kept interestrates too high for too long, and
so now they need to further cut,but now he's thrown some uh some
(07:59):
oil into the water.
SPEAKER_00 (08:01):
We got a picture of it.
He said we may the what how doyou word it?
He said there's no he saidthere's no guarantee that we're
gonna have a rate cut inDecember, and we'll show you
what that looks like in apicture right here.
SPEAKER_01 (08:11):
Far from it, and far from it, he said.
SPEAKER_00 (08:13):
Yeah, far from it.
And they listen to not everyword he says, they listen to
every letter and his reflectionof that letter.
SPEAKER_01 (08:21):
Absolutely, but there's time to go in December.
We'll have some increased datamaybe before if the government
comes back, as I think that theywill by the end of next week.
So at least we'll have some moredata to give the Fed information
so they're not as cloudy as theythink that they are right now.
So you'll eventually see lowerinterest rates than what they
(08:43):
announced this week.
That's my uh the easyprediction.
That means real quick from thetrader in me.
SPEAKER_00 (08:49):
When he said that the bond market sold off, and
when we sell off at the bordertrade bonds, that means interest
rates actually spiked on thosecomments.
SPEAKER_01 (08:58):
And the dollar and the dollar increase because
you're gonna have higherinterest rates longer, and so
that's why you had an up put anuptick in the dollar, which is
not so friendly to the agmarkets usually.
SPEAKER_00 (09:11):
And we did see a lot of volatility in agts.
October is officially over, themarkets are closed.
We have some good news.
Soybean rally, and what does itmean for trade aid?
SPEAKER_01 (09:20):
Yeah, we've got what soybeans over eleven dollars.
Uh boy, that's that's that'sgood.
Let's hope we even go higher.
SPEAKER_00 (09:27):
I got a beautiful chart today.
This is uh January, yeah.
Soybean chart.
Yeah, and then you put abeautiful chart in here, Jim,
that really will give people agood idea of how miserable it's
been for farmers, traders,brokers, speculators.
Look at that sideways channel ofa whole lot of nothing.
980 to 1060 caught.
SPEAKER_01 (09:49):
And then we we got the news that broke it out of
that trading range.
And the news was China and theU.S.
came to an agreement.
There's uh Trump and Xi Jinpingin South Korea, and they had a
host of agreements.
I think we have one a checklistthat that uh we're gonna go
through just very briefly.
What the you want a checklist?
(10:11):
Yeah, I want a checklist.
There we go.
Yeah, the U.S.
agreed to reduce the tariffrates on Chinese goods, the
fentanyl tariff.
He halved them.
They were 20%, now they're 10%in return for Chinese
cooperation that on the fentanylissue.
And Trump just said an hour agohe'll get rid of the other 10%
(10:33):
tariffs if China followsthrough.
And then the rare earth exportcontrols.
China agreed to delayimplementation of those new rare
earth uh export controls by oneyear.
That's big news because it'sgonna give us the time to work
agreements in the U.S., butprimarily outside of this
country, Japan, other countries,South Korea, on uh rare earth uh
(10:57):
you know minerals.
I think it's gonna take up totwo years, but that's still a
good development.
Agriculture, soybeans, Chinacommitted to reshume large-scale
purchases of U.S.
soybeans.
We're gonna detail that in aminute, but it's just not
soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (11:13):
It's uh about your sorghum you've been talking
about.
SPEAKER_01 (11:16):
They actually said the word sorghum, and so that's
good to the Milo sorghumgrowers, but they didn't say
anything about cotton yet.
And you saw cotton had a roughweek again, primarily, I think,
because there was noconfirmation of any new news
relative to China on cotton.
And I'm gonna be doingresearching that this weekend,
(11:38):
so maybe we'll have good newsearly next week once we get more
information.
SPEAKER_00 (11:43):
But now let's the way the light's coming in, it's
like you have a halo around you.
It's like you should see it,Craig.
You should see the way this isgonna look on film.
You look like you're doing thisbroadcast from heaven.
It looks good.
All right, how about this?
Did we get to the soybean?
We did soybean rally, but whatabout this magic$13 billion?
SPEAKER_01 (12:05):
Oh, yeah.
Now, farmers are beginning,especially soybean growers, are
saying, you know, with thisrally, is is this gonna impact
the trade aid uh package?
Now uh we've confirmed this weekUSDA moved$13 billion in funds
from the Commodity CreditCorporation over into a trade
aid package.
Now they can't announce that,Tommy, until the government
(12:27):
comes back.
So they're ready to encork it.
But Steve Vaden, he's deputyUSDA secretary.
Samson alert?
Yes, he's uh I think he's thesmartest person in USDA.
Now, you know, uh he he reallyis.
I mean, he you get him in aroom, he's gonna be the smartest
person, but he's veryarticulate, and for a lawyer, he
(12:50):
can speak English, believe.
SPEAKER_00 (12:52):
I love it.
Steve, Steve, are you watchingthe show?
Are you watching the Ag BullPodcast?
Jim Weissmeyer, and he's notalways big on compliments, he
just sent you one.
Say it one more time for thosesitting in bed.
SPEAKER_01 (13:04):
The smartest person in any room he's probably at,
but he's articulate.
He was on agricul earlier thisweek, and he said he was asked,
uh Chip Flory asked him, uh,well, will the price run up
impact the uh trade aid program?
He basically said yes, but hesaid that's what they want, they
want to see that we it couldtake different paths.
(13:25):
The bridge he could it could beseveral bridges, meaning uh
sorghum hasn't had the pricerun-up like soybeans has, and
cotton has.
So we're still gonna get a trademitigation program.
Senator John Holman said it'sready to be announced, it's just
the government has to come back.
But you know, depending on theprice run-up, if it continues
(13:46):
for uh soybeans, uh soybeangrowers could be impacted on
this because uh I know that theywould much rather get uh funding
from the open marketplace.
Well, that's what they may begetting if this rally continues.
And let's go through some ofthose agreements that they that
they announced on soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (14:07):
Absolutely.
Is this the picture you like?
SPEAKER_01 (14:10):
Yeah, now at the beginning, people were so
confused, and uh Joe and I werediscussing before the program
that the market soybean marketwent down initially after word
of the US-China agreementbecause people were confused
that there were very fewdetails.
But then Treasury SecretaryScott Bessant came out and said
(14:34):
China has agreed to purchase notfor shipments for to purchase 12
million metric tons between nowand January.
SPEAKER_00 (14:45):
He said that early in the morning, right, Scott
Besson?
SPEAKER_01 (14:47):
Yes, and that's when you saw it, it's like just it
the market rallied as a result,and then he also said they
agreed to purchase 25 milliontons of soybeans annually for
26, 27, and 28.
SPEAKER_00 (15:08):
Chart you provided goes all the way back for you,
home gamers.
It's a little hard to see.
We're going back to 20 2010,Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (15:14):
Yes.
What I wanted to point out islook at the 20 that dotted line.
That's the 25 million metrictons that they've committed to
on an annual basis for 26, 27,and 28.
Now, you can you can reachdifferent conclusions on this.
The blue line is the actual U.S.
(15:34):
soybean export to China.
Look at the last few years ofthe Biden administration, where
they were actually they averaged27 million metric tons.
So some people are saying, well,they didn't even get a better
agreement than what Chinapurchased under the Biden
administration.
Now, you know, Deputy SecretaryVaden and the soybean growers
(15:59):
are saying, wait a minute, thisis a this is a floor, not a
ceiling.
China can purchase more than the12 million metric tons between
now and January and the 25million metric tons on an annual
basis for the next three years.
But that is an issue in themarketplace right now that some
people think, myself included,that they should have had a
(16:21):
higher uh level than the 12million tons and the 25 million
metric tons.
But at least it's better thanzero, isn't it?
Yeah, because that's what Chinawas purchasing.
So I'm not going to be toonegative on them.
They got an agreement, and atleast we're off in a renewed
trading relationship between theU.S.
(16:43):
and China in the bean sector andthe sorghum.
We just don't have details onsorghum and other commodities at
this time.
But you know, when we were goingthrough the list of the of the
agreements, I didn't point outwe had a port agreement that the
U.S.
and China are not going toassess penalties on shipping in
(17:05):
in each other in each country.
That's a good thing because nowwe have that off the books as we
ship US soybeans into China.
So that that's that that hasbeen underreported, uh Tommy.
So I think that's it's been aone-year, one year delay, and
that's a good one because wedon't have a uh shipping
(17:26):
albatross around our neck on ourshipments of uh beans and other
products to China in the yearahead.
SPEAKER_00 (17:33):
Unbelievable.
Jim, I got your email sitting upthere, folks.
If you're watching this, ifyou're listening to this, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer atGmail.
That's how you get on the list.
Of course, when stuff's reallybreaking, Jim's been uh sending
it to the EGBO website.
We've been posting that.
He has his own little corner ofthe AGBO website, Eggbull Intel
Wiesmeyer's Perspectives.
(17:54):
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer there.
Jim, you are working as hard asanyone I know with quality
information.
If it's not just right, saycorrection.
I need to correct that.
You're just on it like oldschool news when news was good
and accurate.
Uh a lot of integrity there,folks.
A lot of integrity, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
SPEAKER_01 (18:13):
Well, I learned from good, I had good mentors.
They told us if you're wrong,you better say it and you better
correct it.
SPEAKER_00 (18:18):
Let's continue with the show.
We're going to get through thispretty quick today.
We got uh we did Trump C, we didChina Commitment.
How about New World Screwworm?
SPEAKER_01 (18:26):
Well, we had a video online meeting between Secretary
Rollins at USDA and hercounterpart in Mexico.
They didn't reopen the border.
Uh, they discussed what it wouldtake uh to do that.
There were some new methods todeal with that screw worm.
Um, and I think I I think in thenot too distant future, that
(18:49):
doesn't mean next week, butMexico really wants to reopen
that border.
And I think that they're gonnamonitor some of these new
approaches that they're taking,Tommy, to to stop the spread of
that screw worm.
And I think when they meet next,the next time you see that
they're gonna meet, you gotta upthe odds at least that we could
(19:11):
have a partial phased-inreopening of that border.
I just don't know when, butthat's I think that's the next
step.
SPEAKER_00 (19:19):
Very, very interesting here.
Well, there's let's talk realquick.
They did not uh let's talk aboutthis BS vote that happened with
Brazil.
Talk about that, give it someperspective.
SPEAKER_01 (19:29):
Well, the Senate I had had a series of votes this
week that they approved anegative vote on Trump's trade
policy on Canada and Brazil.
And they were they were narrowvotes.
They did it uh there wasn't asupermajority, but it means
nothing because the House isn'tgoing to pass them.
They may not even take them up.
(19:50):
And even if the House were topass what the Senate cleared,
Trump would veto it.
But these are message bills.
It does show a number ofmoderate are anti-Trump
Republicans voted againstTrump's tariff policies.
So it it it it it is a signalthere, but it just it's not
(20:12):
going anywhere.
So don't waste too much time onthat one.
SPEAKER_00 (20:16):
Okay.
Sticking with beef real quick,and it's kind of like we have
the headline, but we don't haveanything to talk about it.
SPEAKER_01 (20:21):
Well, yeah, we need the agreement.
And I'm telling you, the admitthe White House and U.S.
trade rep uh Jamison Greer anduh and uh Bessent, Treasury
Department, they've heard itfrom uh both Republican and
Democratic lawmakers say, Whatin the H are you doing importing
Argentine beef?
(20:42):
That uh cattle producers arefinally in a profitable
situation, and a four-foldincrease in Argentina's beef
shipments to this country from20,000 to 80,000 isn't gonna
have that much difference.
But we saw psychologically itdid.
But I think now we've got thatout of the way.
I think you've got a cattlechart, don't you?
SPEAKER_00 (21:04):
Yeah, but you know what?
I messed up the cattle chart.
I do we have a cattle chart.
This is just today that westabilized.
This is just a base priceaction.
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (21:13):
That and that's a success because look at the
volatility that we've seen uh onit.
So you remember they announced afour or five-point plan to to
increase uh cattle production,and as Trump said, he wants
lower beef prices, uh, etc.
(21:34):
But uh as most of us know whoknow the cattle market, it takes
time.
And the government, once theyget into it and try to dictate a
market decision, they'll screwit up every time.
And they probably and they didthe cattle.
SPEAKER_00 (21:49):
Yeah, that that was a lot of emotion with what
happened in cattle, and I I'mvery compassionate for all the
hardworking men and women outthere.
I've joined a lot more.
Uh I gotta jump on here so Icould just talk like I'm this
ghost in the back.
But I I've joined a lot moregroups on Facebook and people
you're just people talking aboutit.
I mean, there's I have peoplerandom friends from high school
(22:09):
asking me.
I heard they heard the cattle,you know, person real bad, and
the price of beef isn't lower atthe store.
Do we dare talk about the bigfour?
I mean, was there some insidebaseball about, you know, was
this not for the cattle people?
Was this to take the pressureoff the Packers?
SPEAKER_01 (22:24):
No, I just think it was Trump's and somebody's silly
way to lower the price of beefthat just didn't uh help.
It just hurt the producer.
But as you said, the demand isstill there, and I very much so
I do want the audience to hearthat I got a surprise package of
some good.
(22:45):
I can't wait to uh have sometonight from none other than
Tommy sent me some really nicesteak.
12, 12, so uh 12 fill fillets.
I can't wait.
SPEAKER_00 (22:59):
Those were from Albers Beef, Mr.
Blake Albers and his family outof Nebraska.
I I probably ordered three, fourboxes, and now I'm sending them
to people I like.
Good news is, Jim, I don't likemany people, and so you were one
of the few people who got one.
SPEAKER_01 (23:13):
But yeah, you well, the demand is there, as you can
see right there, and and I thinkthat's what they're finding that
the prices, although high,people still love a beef,
including yours truly.
SPEAKER_00 (23:25):
Well said, my friend.
Let's talk about this.
SPEAKER_01 (23:28):
Well, the today was the last day for to comment on
the uh SRE reallocations, and anumber in the biofuel industry,
uh pro biofuel, is telling EPA,hey, have a hundred percent
reallocation of those specialrefineries.
So let's hope that that's thecase.
(23:48):
We're also still waiting on the2026 and 2027 renewable fuel
standard mandate levels.
I think we're gonna have to waituntil December for that one.
But and 45Z details, we arestill waiting for that and
probably will into 2026.
Why is this so important?
Although we finally have U.S.
(24:10):
soybean exports going back toChina, and it's gonna take a
time to build those purchases,you still need domestic
utilization, and that's wherethe renewable fuel standard
program and the 45z detailsbecome more important because
that's the that's the fourth andfifth gear of the demand for for
(24:34):
the U.S.
soybeans and the variousproducts, Tommy.
I did forget there is a uh alittle uh news I want to break.
Let me see if I can find it.
SPEAKER_00 (24:45):
Next week, there is going to be uh uh I gotta see
whether you look for that.
I want to take a break.
SPEAKER_01 (24:52):
There's an expo, there's an expo in China next
week, and Kafko is expected tosign a five million metric ton
purchase commitment.
Now, I don't know whetherthat'll include the shipment
information or just a pledge tobuy, but we're gonna get that
news next week.
(25:13):
I I that I just got that inabout 20 minutes ago.
Oh, that's so we could have someuh five million metric ton
purchase commitment.
Now that doesn't mean they'regonna purchase it.
They could, but we're gonna waitdetails for that Kafko
announcement next week.
I think that's good news.
SPEAKER_00 (25:30):
And that'll coincide with this chart that I forgot to
pop up.
I'm gonna go back a little bit,but with you saying that, talk
about this.
SPEAKER_01 (25:36):
That's the marketing year, U.S.
soybean shipments to China.
You saw the other one was on anon an on a calendar year basis,
but this is million metric tonson a soybean, on a soybean
marketing year.
And you can see the clear thelast trade war with China when
it dipped down to 13 and 16.
(25:57):
Yeah.
And you can see where the levelsof uh 23, 25, 31, you can see
that's we that's we're into thatarea with this 12 plus 25 that
we talked about uh earlier, asfar as you know uh purchase
commitments.
So we're getting back to normal,as normal as you possibly can
(26:19):
with US-China soybean traderelationships.
But frankly, I hope I'm wrong,Tommy.
I don't think this is gonna lastthat many years, which is why
the soybean industry, thankthank goodness, is good at
market development.
They're gonna try to find othermarkets other than China and and
connecting the dots.
We have to increase domesticutilization of soybeans in the
(26:43):
sector through the RFS and the45Z programs.
And so at least we have sometime to work on that now with
U.S.
soybeans going back to China.
SPEAKER_00 (26:53):
Yeah, real quick, folks, we're down to the end.
We got Mr.
Jim Weiesmeyer on.
Folks, if you're enjoying thisshow, Mr.
Weissmeyer lets us do this.
He gives it out to the publicfor free because he's a generous
man, he loves agriculture.
But the new www.agbull.comwebsites up.
Of course, you can get theWiesmeyer Intel, that's up there
for free.
But other yummies and goodieshere on Halloween are available
(27:15):
for$25 a month,$250 annually,and we are having fun.
I want to say thank you to thenew subscribers, and uh, we're
gonna continue to work hard foryou.
We're getting out texts onactual alerts, morning emails,
afternoon emails.
Folks are calling the desk,talking to the uh brokers, and
we're really enjoying dude thatback to show.
Also, want to give a shout outto my brother Joe Gersafi.
(27:35):
He Mr.
Weissmeyer works really fast.
Text, emails, asked forpictures, and of course, Lindsay
at the corporate office who uhloaded all these beautiful
yummies here on this Halloweenday.
Now, with that, we only I'm sosad, it's almost over.
We only have this is sad news.
That's why I'm sad.
Yeah, but we'll go to this onefirst.
This one really bummed me out,Jim.
This is not good.
This is not good.
SPEAKER_01 (27:56):
No, it's a good company.
FMC Corporation just crateredthis week.
They they cratered more than 45%their equity on Thursday, and
for a holster reasons, yeah.
India, some of they're having aLatin America competition for
their products, but yeah, youlook at that.
Now that's that's not a goodchart.
(28:17):
You know, and they had I was onthe earnings call, and boy, they
they fessed up, they had to, sothey're gonna take corrective
action here.
Now, my concern, Tommy, is someof the reasons they gave could
be reflected in some future USag sector earnings earnings
reports over the next fewmonths.
(28:38):
Now, Cartava is a very goodcompany, they've had a very good
year, so they've had somebuilt-up profits going in, but
despite raising their currentfiscal year earnings in August,
Latin America has turned tougheron credit and pricing for crop
chemicals, as we saw in FMC.
So I would watch Cartava, andthey're coming out with earnings
(29:00):
next week, I think the fourthand the fifth.
Deer has several times loweredtheir fiscal year outlook.
Farm equipment demand is soft,and that's an understatement,
and financing costs arerelatively high.
Cycle is near the bottom.
Nutrient, now they had thetemporary Trinidad uh nitrogen
(29:22):
shutdown, and that's offsets uhtheir North American plants.
So, but supply hiccups arepossible.
CF Industries, these are allvery good companies.
They missed the last quarter onhigher cost, nitrogen pricing uh
volatility, mosaic, Brazil isthe key.
They've had improved uh 2025 uhearnings, and now with uh Brazil
(29:46):
step and increasing theirsoybean productions, I think
their margins are going toremain cyclical.
And then I've got a couple ofothers uh Bungie Global, I would
watch out, and then ADM, they'vehad some problems over the Past
year or so.
But my point here, Tommy, isthat uh the downturn in in the
(30:06):
U.S.
producer sector crops is notlimited.
This once the farmers do bad, anumber of other affiliated
companies have have uhchallenges as well.
And so that's why you have tohave profits to build up for the
years in which it gets harder.
And that's why, thank goodnesswe had in 2021 a really good
(30:31):
bull market in the crops, butyou need more than a few of them
to withstand the multi-yeardownturn that we've seen in the
crop cycle the last last fewyears.
That's the same way at uh uhagribusiness sector.
And so I I think we're seeingit.
This is just what the the agsector development we're we're
(30:53):
seeing on the financial side.
SPEAKER_00 (30:56):
Well said.
Quickest you and I ever got to apodcast, and I'm not gonna make
it any more drama.
I gotta tell you folks, ifyou're watching this and you
enjoy this, drop a comment downbelow.
What can we do better?
What would you like to see moreof?
Just ask.
We'll try.
We can't always do it, but wecan try.
Jim, with that, I always let youclose the show, or I always,
like we've done this for 10years, you know.
But I like to end shows on apositive note because there's a
(31:18):
lot of emotion flying around.
I think I know how you're gonnaend it, but I don't want to ask
you a question and answer it foryou.
SPEAKER_01 (31:24):
Big D, big D demand.
Big D demand is coming back inthe crop cycle, not just
soybeans.
Eventually, we're gonna get thatnews out on sorghum and
hopefully cotton.
As I said, we may get other goodnews from Kafko next week on
their five million toncommitment.
We're gonna have to see thedetails on that.
(31:44):
But it looks like uh we hit thebottom, and so now we're gonna
build demand.
Uh, we're we've uh improvedbasis significantly.
As we told the audiences, Tommy,a few weeks ago to watch that PW
area and the NOLA area.
That will give us the signalthat this coming China business
(32:06):
is for real and it's for real.
So I love a demand pole marketsbecause that's when you get that
cash price going up, because theexporters have to bid for those
commodities.
So that's not bad.
SPEAKER_00 (32:21):
Thank you, my friend.
I'll see you next week.
Sure.
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gristoffy, Eggbow Media,Eggbow Trading, the Eggbow
Podcast.
We have the one and only JimWiesmeyer.
He's queued up, but we got togive him that introduction that
this man deserves.
He worked harder, probably, thananyone in DC because they're not
working.
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_01 (00:48):
Mr.
Weissmeyer.
We've got late breaking newsanalysis.
We're ready to go, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00 (00:55):
Let's do it.
We got a lot of a lot of road tocover in a short time to get
there.
SPEAKER_01 (00:59):
Yes.
SPEAKER_00 (01:00):
All right.
Well, if I had to talk aboutsomething, I guess I would
probably cue up this one, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (01:08):
Government shutdown.
I think we could actually see anend to this by the end of next
week.
Why?
Why do I say that?
Tuesday's elections.
We have governor races inVirginia, my home state now, and
New Jersey.
And I think the Democrats wantto get through those elections.
They think they're going to winboth.
(01:28):
I'm not quite sure in New Jerseyif they're going to win that,
but we'll see.
Either way, I think they'regoing to be close.
But then they get them out ofthe way.
They lose the argument afterSaturday because that's when the
uh schedule increases.
That's when the the the uh thesnap funding ends, although
there's late-breaking news onthat, that a judge just ordered
(01:52):
the Trump administration to usefive and a half billion dollars
to partially fund those expiringfood stamp payments.
But the Democrats lose theirargument on the Obamacare
increase because those thosenotices are going out now.
(02:12):
So they're hurting themselvesthe longer they keep the
government closed.
So hopefully there'll be give onboth sides.
The Republicans will have togive, maybe some future vote on
some portion of Obamacare uhreform.
But I'm I'm getting moreconfident that by the end of
next week we're gonna see thegovernment back.
SPEAKER_00 (02:33):
So you don't think the government's gonna become a
Halloween store, Jim?
SPEAKER_01 (02:36):
It will to tonight.
SPEAKER_00 (02:38):
Tonight.
What are you gonna be forHalloween?
SPEAKER_01 (02:42):
Oh, I sit, I like I go with my cat.
My cat sits at the door, andhe's she, I should say, she
watches all those people incostumes and she loves
Halloween.
SPEAKER_00 (02:54):
Very good.
So you're sure we're not gonnabecome the dollar store in the
capital.
We are all right.
You've been uh boy, if peoplehave been listening to you the
last 10, 12 weeks, we've beendoing this.
They've they've had someinteresting opportunities.
All right.
SPEAKER_01 (03:11):
Partial reopening of USDA offices.
Remember, they had they calledtwo people back each.
Now, it's been a roughreopening, and and I don't fault
the farm service agencies.
And I've I've had more than afew emails from farmers, and I
understand their frustrationbecause the inability to get
some farmer payments, includingmarketing assistant loans.
(03:35):
But whenever you shut down thegovernment, especially at the
beginning of a fiscal year, ittakes longer and it takes a week
to 10 days, and that's where weare uh since they recalled those
FSA two people per office back.
And so I think hopefully overthe weekend, in fact, I think
(03:55):
some of these payments are goingto be uh starting to be made,
Tommy.
That's a good thing.
Let's hope I'm right.
Let's hope I'm right.
SPEAKER_00 (04:03):
That's a real good thing.
SPEAKER_01 (04:05):
All right.
Then we have some on theshutdown.
Nope, we have the shutdown.
We have let's go through thelist of the government shutdowns
to show how many times that thelist?
Yeah, there's there's the list.
Look at that.
How many times, what 13, 14?
There's been a vote in theSenate on on voting for a clean
(04:28):
uh continuing resolution, andit's been voted down each time.
But you can see as we get intoNovember now, we've got some
critical dates here, both on theSNAP funding, which again, as we
speak, a judge came out andsaid, USDA, we're forcing you to
use the five and a half billiondollars in contingency funds.
(04:50):
And hopefully you can lookaround and find some other
funding in order to continuethose much needed food stamp
programs.
And then, as I said before, wehave the Obamacare increases,
uh, 30% or more in increases.
So that's why we're going tohave a solution to that.
But then the next one, Tommy,bring up we've got late breaking
(05:12):
news.
NAS, National Statistics Servicecame out with just this on their
site.
They're going, they will releasekey data in November.
The military.
SPEAKER_00 (05:22):
This is a big deal, Jim.
And you know what?
All right, let's give it thebreaking news.
SPEAKER_01 (05:27):
Yeah, yeah.
It is because look at cropproduction normally was going to
come out November the 10th.
Now it's going to come outNovember the 14th, for sure.
Okay.
And then the WASD report willcome out the same date.
Now they'll also have the milkproduction, cattle on feed, and
and uh, etc.
(05:48):
But why you know why did thisoccur?
They had to find money fromsomewhere.
Where's the money coming from?
Why did this happen?
Staff, NAS staff are beingrecalled because we need the
reports for farm service agencyactivities.
Okay.
I was told.
So that's a little exclusive forus right now.
(06:12):
I would imagine that they foundmoney either in the Commodity
Credit Corporation or theshifting of funds.
Again, there are billions ofdollars in every agency.
SPEAKER_00 (06:22):
I wish I could find money like that, partner.
SPEAKER_01 (06:24):
Yes, I know, that are floating around and they
found it.
But that's good news because themarket now is going to have some
data for the crop size, the cornand soybean crops, and the WASDI
on the demand side.
It's going to be interesting tosee what they say on China,
Tommy, with the news that we'regoing to talk about later on on
(06:46):
whether or not they uh increaseU.S.
soybean exports as a result ofthe Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
uh agreements that were thatwere announced this week.
SPEAKER_00 (06:57):
Now we get to uh if you're a saver, you're making
less.
And if you're if you're aborrower, you're paying less.
SPEAKER_01 (07:05):
Yeah, but you'll pay less in the future.
But we don't know about Decemberbecause the curmudgeon, our Fed
chairman, Jerome J.
Powell, put a little fuzzinessin the uh.
Yeah, yeah.
And so uh we had wideexpectations that they were
gonna have another cut in theDecember Fed Open Market
(07:25):
Committee, that's FOMC, inDecember.
Now it's still over 50 percent,but we're not as sure.
So because they don't have thedata yet.
SPEAKER_00 (07:34):
Note what this young man said, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (07:36):
Uh yeah, well, that's Jerome J.
Powell.
I he's I'm uh as I always say,he's smart, but he's dumb when
it comes to interest rates, youknow.
Just he just it's behind thecurve.
He's the one who said that theinflation was transitory, it
wasn't, and they kept interestrates too high for too long, and
so now they need to further cut,but now he's thrown some uh some
(07:59):
oil into the water.
SPEAKER_00 (08:01):
We got a picture of it.
He said we may the what how doyou word it?
He said there's no he saidthere's no guarantee that we're
gonna have a rate cut inDecember, and we'll show you
what that looks like in apicture right here.
SPEAKER_01 (08:11):
Far from it, and far from it, he said.
SPEAKER_00 (08:13):
Yeah, far from it.
And they listen to not everyword he says, they listen to
every letter and his reflectionof that letter.
SPEAKER_01 (08:21):
Absolutely, but there's time to go in December.
We'll have some increased datamaybe before if the government
comes back, as I think that theywill by the end of next week.
So at least we'll have some moredata to give the Fed information
so they're not as cloudy as theythink that they are right now.
So you'll eventually see lowerinterest rates than what they
(08:43):
announced this week.
That's my uh the easyprediction.
That means real quick from thetrader in me.
SPEAKER_00 (08:49):
When he said that the bond market sold off, and
when we sell off at the bordertrade bonds, that means interest
rates actually spiked on thosecomments.
SPEAKER_01 (08:58):
And the dollar and the dollar increase because
you're gonna have higherinterest rates longer, and so
that's why you had an up put anuptick in the dollar, which is
not so friendly to the agmarkets usually.
SPEAKER_00 (09:11):
And we did see a lot of volatility in agts.
October is officially over, themarkets are closed.
We have some good news.
Soybean rally, and what does itmean for trade aid?
SPEAKER_01 (09:20):
Yeah, we've got what soybeans over eleven dollars.
Uh boy, that's that's that'sgood.
Let's hope we even go higher.
SPEAKER_00 (09:27):
I got a beautiful chart today.
This is uh January, yeah.
Soybean chart.
Yeah, and then you put abeautiful chart in here, Jim,
that really will give people agood idea of how miserable it's
been for farmers, traders,brokers, speculators.
Look at that sideways channel ofa whole lot of nothing.
980 to 1060 caught.
SPEAKER_01 (09:49):
And then we we got the news that broke it out of
that trading range.
And the news was China and theU.S.
came to an agreement.
There's uh Trump and Xi Jinpingin South Korea, and they had a
host of agreements.
I think we have one a checklistthat that uh we're gonna go
through just very briefly.
What the you want a checklist?
(10:11):
Yeah, I want a checklist.
There we go.
Yeah, the U.S.
agreed to reduce the tariffrates on Chinese goods, the
fentanyl tariff.
He halved them.
They were 20%, now they're 10%in return for Chinese
cooperation that on the fentanylissue.
And Trump just said an hour agohe'll get rid of the other 10%
(10:33):
tariffs if China followsthrough.
And then the rare earth exportcontrols.
China agreed to delayimplementation of those new rare
earth uh export controls by oneyear.
That's big news because it'sgonna give us the time to work
agreements in the U.S., butprimarily outside of this
country, Japan, other countries,South Korea, on uh rare earth uh
(10:57):
you know minerals.
I think it's gonna take up totwo years, but that's still a
good development.
Agriculture, soybeans, Chinacommitted to reshume large-scale
purchases of U.S.
soybeans.
We're gonna detail that in aminute, but it's just not
soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (11:13):
It's uh about your sorghum you've been talking
about.
SPEAKER_01 (11:16):
They actually said the word sorghum, and so that's
good to the Milo sorghumgrowers, but they didn't say
anything about cotton yet.
And you saw cotton had a roughweek again, primarily, I think,
because there was noconfirmation of any new news
relative to China on cotton.
And I'm gonna be doingresearching that this weekend,
(11:38):
so maybe we'll have good newsearly next week once we get more
information.
SPEAKER_00 (11:43):
But now let's the way the light's coming in, it's
like you have a halo around you.
It's like you should see it,Craig.
You should see the way this isgonna look on film.
You look like you're doing thisbroadcast from heaven.
It looks good.
All right, how about this?
Did we get to the soybean?
We did soybean rally, but whatabout this magic$13 billion?
SPEAKER_01 (12:05):
Oh, yeah.
Now, farmers are beginning,especially soybean growers, are
saying, you know, with thisrally, is is this gonna impact
the trade aid uh package?
Now uh we've confirmed this weekUSDA moved$13 billion in funds
from the Commodity CreditCorporation over into a trade
aid package.
Now they can't announce that,Tommy, until the government
(12:27):
comes back.
So they're ready to encork it.
But Steve Vaden, he's deputyUSDA secretary.
Samson alert?
Yes, he's uh I think he's thesmartest person in USDA.
Now, you know, uh he he reallyis.
I mean, he you get him in aroom, he's gonna be the smartest
person, but he's veryarticulate, and for a lawyer, he
(12:50):
can speak English, believe.
SPEAKER_00 (12:52):
I love it.
Steve, Steve, are you watchingthe show?
Are you watching the Ag BullPodcast?
Jim Weissmeyer, and he's notalways big on compliments, he
just sent you one.
Say it one more time for thosesitting in bed.
SPEAKER_01 (13:04):
The smartest person in any room he's probably at,
but he's articulate.
He was on agricul earlier thisweek, and he said he was asked,
uh Chip Flory asked him, uh,well, will the price run up
impact the uh trade aid program?
He basically said yes, but hesaid that's what they want, they
want to see that we it couldtake different paths.
(13:25):
The bridge he could it could beseveral bridges, meaning uh
sorghum hasn't had the pricerun-up like soybeans has, and
cotton has.
So we're still gonna get a trademitigation program.
Senator John Holman said it'sready to be announced, it's just
the government has to come back.
But you know, depending on theprice run-up, if it continues
(13:46):
for uh soybeans, uh soybeangrowers could be impacted on
this because uh I know that theywould much rather get uh funding
from the open marketplace.
Well, that's what they may begetting if this rally continues.
And let's go through some ofthose agreements that they that
they announced on soybeans.
SPEAKER_00 (14:07):
Absolutely.
Is this the picture you like?
SPEAKER_01 (14:10):
Yeah, now at the beginning, people were so
confused, and uh Joe and I werediscussing before the program
that the market soybean marketwent down initially after word
of the US-China agreementbecause people were confused
that there were very fewdetails.
But then Treasury SecretaryScott Bessant came out and said
(14:34):
China has agreed to purchase notfor shipments for to purchase 12
million metric tons between nowand January.
SPEAKER_00 (14:45):
He said that early in the morning, right, Scott
Besson?
SPEAKER_01 (14:47):
Yes, and that's when you saw it, it's like just it
the market rallied as a result,and then he also said they
agreed to purchase 25 milliontons of soybeans annually for
26, 27, and 28.
SPEAKER_00 (15:08):
Chart you provided goes all the way back for you,
home gamers.
It's a little hard to see.
We're going back to 20 2010,Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (15:14):
Yes.
What I wanted to point out islook at the 20 that dotted line.
That's the 25 million metrictons that they've committed to
on an annual basis for 26, 27,and 28.
Now, you can you can reachdifferent conclusions on this.
The blue line is the actual U.S.
(15:34):
soybean export to China.
Look at the last few years ofthe Biden administration, where
they were actually they averaged27 million metric tons.
So some people are saying, well,they didn't even get a better
agreement than what Chinapurchased under the Biden
administration.
Now, you know, Deputy SecretaryVaden and the soybean growers
(15:59):
are saying, wait a minute, thisis a this is a floor, not a
ceiling.
China can purchase more than the12 million metric tons between
now and January and the 25million metric tons on an annual
basis for the next three years.
But that is an issue in themarketplace right now that some
people think, myself included,that they should have had a
(16:21):
higher uh level than the 12million tons and the 25 million
metric tons.
But at least it's better thanzero, isn't it?
Yeah, because that's what Chinawas purchasing.
So I'm not going to be toonegative on them.
They got an agreement, and atleast we're off in a renewed
trading relationship between theU.S.
(16:43):
and China in the bean sector andthe sorghum.
We just don't have details onsorghum and other commodities at
this time.
But you know, when we were goingthrough the list of the of the
agreements, I didn't point outwe had a port agreement that the
U.S.
and China are not going toassess penalties on shipping in
(17:05):
in each other in each country.
That's a good thing because nowwe have that off the books as we
ship US soybeans into China.
So that that's that that hasbeen underreported, uh Tommy.
So I think that's it's been aone-year, one year delay, and
that's a good one because wedon't have a uh shipping
(17:26):
albatross around our neck on ourshipments of uh beans and other
products to China in the yearahead.
SPEAKER_00 (17:33):
Unbelievable.
Jim, I got your email sitting upthere, folks.
If you're watching this, ifyou're listening to this, Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer atGmail.
That's how you get on the list.
Of course, when stuff's reallybreaking, Jim's been uh sending
it to the EGBO website.
We've been posting that.
He has his own little corner ofthe AGBO website, Eggbull Intel
Wiesmeyer's Perspectives.
(17:54):
Mr.
Jim Wiesmeyer there.
Jim, you are working as hard asanyone I know with quality
information.
If it's not just right, saycorrection.
I need to correct that.
You're just on it like oldschool news when news was good
and accurate.
Uh a lot of integrity there,folks.
A lot of integrity, Mr.
Weissmeyer.
SPEAKER_01 (18:13):
Well, I learned from good, I had good mentors.
They told us if you're wrong,you better say it and you better
correct it.
SPEAKER_00 (18:18):
Let's continue with the show.
We're going to get through thispretty quick today.
We got uh we did Trump C, we didChina Commitment.
How about New World Screwworm?
SPEAKER_01 (18:26):
Well, we had a video online meeting between Secretary
Rollins at USDA and hercounterpart in Mexico.
They didn't reopen the border.
Uh, they discussed what it wouldtake uh to do that.
There were some new methods todeal with that screw worm.
Um, and I think I I think in thenot too distant future, that
(18:49):
doesn't mean next week, butMexico really wants to reopen
that border.
And I think that they're gonnamonitor some of these new
approaches that they're taking,Tommy, to to stop the spread of
that screw worm.
And I think when they meet next,the next time you see that
they're gonna meet, you gotta upthe odds at least that we could
(19:11):
have a partial phased-inreopening of that border.
I just don't know when, butthat's I think that's the next
step.
SPEAKER_00 (19:19):
Very, very interesting here.
Well, there's let's talk realquick.
They did not uh let's talk aboutthis BS vote that happened with
Brazil.
Talk about that, give it someperspective.
SPEAKER_01 (19:29):
Well, the Senate I had had a series of votes this
week that they approved anegative vote on Trump's trade
policy on Canada and Brazil.
And they were they were narrowvotes.
They did it uh there wasn't asupermajority, but it means
nothing because the House isn'tgoing to pass them.
They may not even take them up.
(19:50):
And even if the House were topass what the Senate cleared,
Trump would veto it.
But these are message bills.
It does show a number ofmoderate are anti-Trump
Republicans voted againstTrump's tariff policies.
So it it it it it is a signalthere, but it just it's not
(20:12):
going anywhere.
So don't waste too much time onthat one.
SPEAKER_00 (20:16):
Okay.
Sticking with beef real quick,and it's kind of like we have
the headline, but we don't haveanything to talk about it.
SPEAKER_01 (20:21):
Well, yeah, we need the agreement.
And I'm telling you, the admitthe White House and U.S.
trade rep uh Jamison Greer anduh and uh Bessent, Treasury
Department, they've heard itfrom uh both Republican and
Democratic lawmakers say, Whatin the H are you doing importing
Argentine beef?
(20:42):
That uh cattle producers arefinally in a profitable
situation, and a four-foldincrease in Argentina's beef
shipments to this country from20,000 to 80,000 isn't gonna
have that much difference.
But we saw psychologically itdid.
But I think now we've got thatout of the way.
I think you've got a cattlechart, don't you?
SPEAKER_00 (21:04):
Yeah, but you know what?
I messed up the cattle chart.
I do we have a cattle chart.
This is just today that westabilized.
This is just a base priceaction.
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (21:13):
That and that's a success because look at the
volatility that we've seen uh onit.
So you remember they announced afour or five-point plan to to
increase uh cattle production,and as Trump said, he wants
lower beef prices, uh, etc.
(21:34):
But uh as most of us know whoknow the cattle market, it takes
time.
And the government, once theyget into it and try to dictate a
market decision, they'll screwit up every time.
And they probably and they didthe cattle.
SPEAKER_00 (21:49):
Yeah, that that was a lot of emotion with what
happened in cattle, and I I'mvery compassionate for all the
hardworking men and women outthere.
I've joined a lot more.
Uh I gotta jump on here so Icould just talk like I'm this
ghost in the back.
But I I've joined a lot moregroups on Facebook and people
you're just people talking aboutit.
I mean, there's I have peoplerandom friends from high school
(22:09):
asking me.
I heard they heard the cattle,you know, person real bad, and
the price of beef isn't lower atthe store.
Do we dare talk about the bigfour?
I mean, was there some insidebaseball about, you know, was
this not for the cattle people?
Was this to take the pressureoff the Packers?
SPEAKER_01 (22:24):
No, I just think it was Trump's and somebody's silly
way to lower the price of beefthat just didn't uh help.
It just hurt the producer.
But as you said, the demand isstill there, and I very much so
I do want the audience to hearthat I got a surprise package of
some good.
(22:45):
I can't wait to uh have sometonight from none other than
Tommy sent me some really nicesteak.
12, 12, so uh 12 fill fillets.
I can't wait.
SPEAKER_00 (22:59):
Those were from Albers Beef, Mr.
Blake Albers and his family outof Nebraska.
I I probably ordered three, fourboxes, and now I'm sending them
to people I like.
Good news is, Jim, I don't likemany people, and so you were one
of the few people who got one.
SPEAKER_01 (23:13):
But yeah, you well, the demand is there, as you can
see right there, and and I thinkthat's what they're finding that
the prices, although high,people still love a beef,
including yours truly.
SPEAKER_00 (23:25):
Well said, my friend.
Let's talk about this.
SPEAKER_01 (23:28):
Well, the today was the last day for to comment on
the uh SRE reallocations, and anumber in the biofuel industry,
uh pro biofuel, is telling EPA,hey, have a hundred percent
reallocation of those specialrefineries.
So let's hope that that's thecase.
(23:48):
We're also still waiting on the2026 and 2027 renewable fuel
standard mandate levels.
I think we're gonna have to waituntil December for that one.
But and 45Z details, we arestill waiting for that and
probably will into 2026.
Why is this so important?
Although we finally have U.S.
(24:10):
soybean exports going back toChina, and it's gonna take a
time to build those purchases,you still need domestic
utilization, and that's wherethe renewable fuel standard
program and the 45z detailsbecome more important because
that's the that's the fourth andfifth gear of the demand for for
(24:34):
the U.S.
soybeans and the variousproducts, Tommy.
I did forget there is a uh alittle uh news I want to break.
Let me see if I can find it.
SPEAKER_00 (24:45):
Next week, there is going to be uh uh I gotta see
whether you look for that.
I want to take a break.
SPEAKER_01 (24:52):
There's an expo, there's an expo in China next
week, and Kafko is expected tosign a five million metric ton
purchase commitment.
Now, I don't know whetherthat'll include the shipment
information or just a pledge tobuy, but we're gonna get that
news next week.
(25:13):
I I that I just got that inabout 20 minutes ago.
Oh, that's so we could have someuh five million metric ton
purchase commitment.
Now that doesn't mean they'regonna purchase it.
They could, but we're gonna waitdetails for that Kafko
announcement next week.
I think that's good news.
SPEAKER_00 (25:30):
And that'll coincide with this chart that I forgot to
pop up.
I'm gonna go back a little bit,but with you saying that, talk
about this.
SPEAKER_01 (25:36):
That's the marketing year, U.S.
soybean shipments to China.
You saw the other one was on anon an on a calendar year basis,
but this is million metric tonson a soybean, on a soybean
marketing year.
And you can see the clear thelast trade war with China when
it dipped down to 13 and 16.
(25:57):
Yeah.
And you can see where the levelsof uh 23, 25, 31, you can see
that's we that's we're into thatarea with this 12 plus 25 that
we talked about uh earlier, asfar as you know uh purchase
commitments.
So we're getting back to normal,as normal as you possibly can
(26:19):
with US-China soybean traderelationships.
But frankly, I hope I'm wrong,Tommy.
I don't think this is gonna lastthat many years, which is why
the soybean industry, thankthank goodness, is good at
market development.
They're gonna try to find othermarkets other than China and and
connecting the dots.
We have to increase domesticutilization of soybeans in the
(26:43):
sector through the RFS and the45Z programs.
And so at least we have sometime to work on that now with
U.S.
soybeans going back to China.
SPEAKER_00 (26:53):
Yeah, real quick, folks, we're down to the end.
We got Mr.
Jim Weiesmeyer on.
Folks, if you're enjoying thisshow, Mr.
Weissmeyer lets us do this.
He gives it out to the publicfor free because he's a generous
man, he loves agriculture.
But the new www.agbull.comwebsites up.
Of course, you can get theWiesmeyer Intel, that's up there
for free.
But other yummies and goodieshere on Halloween are available
(27:15):
for$25 a month,$250 annually,and we are having fun.
I want to say thank you to thenew subscribers, and uh, we're
gonna continue to work hard foryou.
We're getting out texts onactual alerts, morning emails,
afternoon emails.
Folks are calling the desk,talking to the uh brokers, and
we're really enjoying dude thatback to show.
Also, want to give a shout outto my brother Joe Gersafi.
(27:35):
He Mr.
Weissmeyer works really fast.
Text, emails, asked forpictures, and of course, Lindsay
at the corporate office who uhloaded all these beautiful
yummies here on this Halloweenday.
Now, with that, we only I'm sosad, it's almost over.
We only have this is sad news.
That's why I'm sad.
Yeah, but we'll go to this onefirst.
This one really bummed me out,Jim.
This is not good.
This is not good.
SPEAKER_01 (27:56):
No, it's a good company.
FMC Corporation just crateredthis week.
They they cratered more than 45%their equity on Thursday, and
for a holster reasons, yeah.
India, some of they're having aLatin America competition for
their products, but yeah, youlook at that.
Now that's that's not a goodchart.
(28:17):
You know, and they had I was onthe earnings call, and boy, they
they fessed up, they had to, sothey're gonna take corrective
action here.
Now, my concern, Tommy, is someof the reasons they gave could
be reflected in some future USag sector earnings earnings
reports over the next fewmonths.
(28:38):
Now, Cartava is a very goodcompany, they've had a very good
year, so they've had somebuilt-up profits going in, but
despite raising their currentfiscal year earnings in August,
Latin America has turned tougheron credit and pricing for crop
chemicals, as we saw in FMC.
So I would watch Cartava, andthey're coming out with earnings
(29:00):
next week, I think the fourthand the fifth.
Deer has several times loweredtheir fiscal year outlook.
Farm equipment demand is soft,and that's an understatement,
and financing costs arerelatively high.
Cycle is near the bottom.
Nutrient, now they had thetemporary Trinidad uh nitrogen
(29:22):
shutdown, and that's offsets uhtheir North American plants.
So, but supply hiccups arepossible.
CF Industries, these are allvery good companies.
They missed the last quarter onhigher cost, nitrogen pricing uh
volatility, mosaic, Brazil isthe key.
They've had improved uh 2025 uhearnings, and now with uh Brazil
(29:46):
step and increasing theirsoybean productions, I think
their margins are going toremain cyclical.
And then I've got a couple ofothers uh Bungie Global, I would
watch out, and then ADM, they'vehad some problems over the Past
year or so.
But my point here, Tommy, isthat uh the downturn in in the
(30:06):
U.S.
producer sector crops is notlimited.
This once the farmers do bad, anumber of other affiliated
companies have have uhchallenges as well.
And so that's why you have tohave profits to build up for the
years in which it gets harder.
And that's why, thank goodnesswe had in 2021 a really good
(30:31):
bull market in the crops, butyou need more than a few of them
to withstand the multi-yeardownturn that we've seen in the
crop cycle the last last fewyears.
That's the same way at uh uhagribusiness sector.
And so I I think we're seeingit.
This is just what the the agsector development we're we're
(30:53):
seeing on the financial side.
SPEAKER_00 (30:56):
Well said.
Quickest you and I ever got to apodcast, and I'm not gonna make
it any more drama.
I gotta tell you folks, ifyou're watching this and you
enjoy this, drop a comment downbelow.
What can we do better?
What would you like to see moreof?
Just ask.
We'll try.
We can't always do it, but wecan try.
Jim, with that, I always let youclose the show, or I always,
like we've done this for 10years, you know.
But I like to end shows on apositive note because there's a
(31:18):
lot of emotion flying around.
I think I know how you're gonnaend it, but I don't want to ask
you a question and answer it foryou.
SPEAKER_01 (31:24):
Big D, big D demand.
Big D demand is coming back inthe crop cycle, not just
soybeans.
Eventually, we're gonna get thatnews out on sorghum and
hopefully cotton.
As I said, we may get other goodnews from Kafko next week on
their five million toncommitment.
We're gonna have to see thedetails on that.
(31:44):
But it looks like uh we hit thebottom, and so now we're gonna
build demand.
Uh, we're we've uh improvedbasis significantly.
As we told the audiences, Tommy,a few weeks ago to watch that PW
area and the NOLA area.
That will give us the signalthat this coming China business
(32:06):
is for real and it's for real.
So I love a demand pole marketsbecause that's when you get that
cash price going up, because theexporters have to bid for those
commodities.
So that's not bad.
SPEAKER_00 (32:21):
Thank you, my friend.
I'll see you next week.
Sure.
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