2' - The Rise and Fall of Empires: A Global Economic and Political History

This excerpt from "The Changing World Order" presents a model for understanding the rise and fall of empires, focusing on cyclical patterns in wealth, power, and global order. The author identifies 18 key determinants, including debt cycles, internal and external conflicts, and technological innovation, to explain historical shifts in power dynamics. The analysis examines several historical empires, highlighting the similarities in their cycles of growth and decline, particularly concerning their reserve currencies and economic systems. A crucial aspect is the interplay between internal and external pressures, which often lead to periods of conflict and ultimately, to a restructuring of global power. The book concludes by applying this framework to contemporary geopolitical tensions, particularly the evolving relationship between the United States and China, and offering predictions for the coming decade.