Fat Dog and The Cat — October 9: Eagles-Giants Over, Brewers Edge, Tulane Roll | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, the show where the math meets the moment — and the edge always gets the last word.

For October 9, we’re going cross-sport again: NFL, MLB, and College Football. Three plays, one goal — staying one step ahead of the number.

We start at MetLife, where this total looks too humble for the matchup.

The Giants’ defense has bent all year — 29th in red-zone stops — while the Eagles rank top-five in both EPA/play and explosive rate. That’s not a friendly combo for a low total.

Divisional games like this tend to open up late, and both teams have shown fourth-quarter scoring spikes.
If Jones can keep the pocket intact long enough to trade blows, we’ll take the math over the narrative.
Call it 27–17, and Over 40 gets home.

Now, to the diamond. The Brewers are in their value pocket here — priced like an underdog but performing like a favorite.
Their bullpen remains elite, their patience at the plate translates to late runs, and the Cubs’ relievers are in a 5.00 ERA funk over the last 10 games.

Even matchups like this hinge on small cracks — and Chicago’s bullpen has a few too many.
Milwaukee’s lineup against lefties continues to show disciplined barrel rate and zone control.
We’re on the Brew Crew, and the price is right.

Finally, to the college board — and Tulane is the trench bully of the night.
East Carolina ranks bottom-20 nationally in rush defense, while Tulane sits top-10 in yards per carry (5.3) and line push.
That’s not a mismatch — that’s an equation.

Tulane has covered five of its last six at home and plays with quiet dominance.
The Green Wave can dictate tempo, protect leads, and squeeze the air out of games late.
This sets up for a 31–20 kind of win — clean, professional, and methodical.

• Eagles-Giants Over 40 (-110)

• Brewers ML (-105)

• Tulane -6.5 (-110)

All three plays built from data, discipline, and market feel — because long-term success is never luck, sir; it’s math wearing patience.

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