Fat Dog and The Cat — October 11: Texas Candy, Georgia Grind, Milwaukee Muscle | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where logic eats emotion for breakfast.

It’s October 11, and today’s board is clean — rivalry volatility, SEC muscle, and bullpen reliability.

This line flipped from -3 to +1.5 overnight, and that’s our invitation.
Texas brings a top-10 scoring defense, a top-15 third-down stop rate, and the better turnover profile — critical in a field-position war.
Neutral-site variance turns every drive into an audit. We’re taking the candy, the hook, and the better balance.

The line drop was panic-based, not math-based. Georgia’s red-zone defense ranks top-10 nationally, and Auburn’s slow, methodical passing game lacks explosion.
Even on the road, talent wins out.
Five-stars at a thrift-store price — we’ll take it.

Bullpen parade incoming. Milwaukee’s relief depth is the separator — elite in xERA and late-inning FIP.
AmFam Field removes weather variance, meaning cleaner pitching and truer results. If the Crew lead after six, it’s over. Short number, big edge.

• Texas +1.5

• Georgia -3.5

• Brewers ML (-130)

  
  

Data, discipline, and edge. That’s the recipe.

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