Fat Dog and The Cat — October 12: Three Numbers, One Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets discipline, and emotion takes the day off.

For October 12, we’ve got three plays across the board — one defensive mismatch, one coaching edge, and one bullpen fade.

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49ers at Buccaneers — Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)

San Francisco drives well but finishes poorly — 28th in red-zone touchdown rate at just 42%. Tampa forces kicks, not end-zone dances.

Bowles’ squad thrives after halftime, covering the third quarter in 13 of 18 games. Expect adjustments, turnovers, and late separation. Field goals won’t cover 3.5; touchdowns will.

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Lions at Chiefs — Lions +2.5 (-110)

Dan Campbell’s Lions are clock magicians — 13–2 ATS over their last 15. Gibbs and Montgomery bleed time against a KC run defense ranked bottom-third in the league.

Mahomes can’t score if he’s watching. The Chiefs are 0–3 in one-score games; this is the perfect setup for a cover — maybe more.

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Mariners at Blue Jays — Blue Jays -1.5 (+133)

Seattle’s bullpen is gassed after a 15-inning marathon, then flew cross-country into a dome where Toronto is fresh, rested, and rolling out Gausman.

Miller’s contact-heavy approach spells trouble against the Jays’ lineup. One big inning ends it early. The plus-money is our kind of math.

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