Fat Dog and The Cat — October 13: Firepower, Pressure, Precision

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets grit and every pick comes with receipts.

It’s October 13, and the numbers are lining up across football and baseball — three clean edges, one sharp mission.

🏈 Bills at Falcons — Over 49.5 (-110)

Buffalo scores like it’s a reflex (30.6 PPG, 3rd in the league), and Atlanta’s best weapon is a running game built to exploit a soft Bills front — 28th against the run, 5.6 YPC allowed.
Add tempo, short fields, and red-zone volume — and the scoreboard lights up. Bills Overs are 5–1 in their last six on the road. This one fits the script.

🏈 Bears at Commanders — Commanders -4.5 (-108)

Washington’s identity? Efficiency with muscle. They lead the league in yards per rush (5.9) and face a Chicago defense that ranks bottom-three in run stopping.
The Commanders are 5–0 ATS at home and generate consistent backfield pressure — 15 sacks already.
Expect a squeeze play, not a shootout. It’s attrition football.

⚾ Dodgers at Brewers — Over 7.5 (-115)

Milwaukee’s bullpen is spent, and the Dodgers’ bats are nuclear — 9–1 last 10, 5.3 runs per game.
American Family Field’s homer factor amplifies every mistake, and both lineups can flip a game in a single inning.
By the seventh, bullpen doors will need ice packs.

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