Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 2 Picks — Feyenoord Spread, Red Sox ML, Stafford Prop | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s October 2 slate, we’re rolling into three sharp plays across football, baseball, and the NFL board, each built on numbers, matchup context, and proven models.

Feyenoord +0.5 vs Aston Villa
We start in Europe, where De Kuip turns into a wall of noise on European nights. Feyenoord enter unbeaten in their last six UEL home games, averaging nearly three goals in that stretch. With a +0.5 handicap, we’re cashing on either a win or a draw. Aston Villa under Unai Emery have leaned on direct counter-attacks, but in this atmosphere, “don’t lose first” feels more likely than a statement road win. Feyenoord don’t need to dominate—they just need not to lose pretty.

Red Sox Moneyline at Yankees (+136)
Next, we head to MLB with the Boston Red Sox taking on the New York Yankees. It’s rookie vs rookie—Connelly Early against Cam Schlittler. Early brings a 2.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts, while Schlittler has a 2.96 ERA but a hittable profile. Boston’s bullpen was stretched yesterday, yet Chapman is fresh and waiting. In a do-or-die elimination spot, volatility is our friend. At +136, the Sox are the juicier side, and scrappy offense gives them real bite against a Yankees rookie.

NFL: 49ers vs Rams Total & Stafford Prop
Finally, the NFL spotlight: 49ers at Rams. With the total set at 45.5, projections lean higher. Brock Purdy is out, which means short fields, turnovers, and extra possessions—fertile ground for points. Stafford’s Rams are humming, SoFi’s dome neutralizes weather, and this isn’t shaping up as trench warfare. Think track meet instead.

Which leads us into the prop: Matthew Stafford Over 235.5 passing yards. He’s averaging 278.5 through four games, clearing this line in three already. With Puka Nacua leading the league in catches and a battered 49ers secondary that hasn’t forced a pick since the flip-phone era, Stafford has a clear runway. This isn’t just Over, it’s Over with cruise control on.

That wraps up today’s picks for October 2. Feyenoord +0.5, Red Sox on the moneyline, and Stafford with his arm on full display in Los Angeles.

Each selection grounded in quantitative modeling, matchup insight, and disciplined process, because in the long run, numbers always beat narratives.

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