Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 3 Picks — Fulham Over, Aces Spread, WVU-BYU Total | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. For today’s October 3 slate, we’ve lined up three sharp plays across soccer, basketball, and college football—all grounded in matchup context, quantitative models, and the discipline that makes the edge sustainable.

⚽ Fulham FC at AFC Bournemouth — Over 2.5 (-110)

We start in the Premier League with Fulham traveling to Bournemouth. The Cherries are buzzing right now—11 points in their last six, including late-match fireworks last week. Meanwhile, Fulham have been shaky away from Craven Cottage, conceding two goals per game on the road and showing travel sickness that doesn’t fade.

Head-to-head, 7 of the last 12 have cleared 2.5 goals, and the market’s already nudging this line toward -115/-120. At -110, we’re stepping into value territory. Even if Bournemouth do most of the scoring, Fulham’s leaky backline plus late-game chaos sets the table. Scoreline forecast: 2–1, bar tab covered.

🏀 Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces — Aces -3 (-110)

Next, we land in the WNBA playoffs, where A’ja Wilson continues to be a cheat code. At home, the Aces average nearly 87 points per game, and laying a single possession feels like paying cover for the Wilson–Young pick-and-roll.

Phoenix tends to start playoff series slow—especially on the road. Vegas’ pace, foul line trips, and home rhythm tilt this matchup late, making -3 the right side. Think of it less as a gamble and more as house edge.

🏈 West Virginia Mountaineers at BYU Cougars — Over 46 (-110)

Finally, college football under the lights in Provo. BYU has real shootout potential behind Bear Bachmeier, who’s added four rushing touchdowns with his legs. West Virginia’s run defense sits around 70th in EPA/rush, which sets up short fields and pressure all night.

Factor in altitude—4,649 feet—and a 10:30 PM ET kickoff that punishes tired legs, and you get a recipe for second-half scoring bursts. BYU alone can flirt with 40, so even if WVU only brings a field goal and a prayer, we’re clearing the bar. Projection: 31–17 at minimum, with garbage-time points as gravy.

That wraps up today’s picks for October 3:

Fulham vs Bournemouth Over 2.5

Las Vegas Aces -3 vs Phoenix Mercury

West Virginia–BYU Over 46

Each selection grounded in quantitative modeling, matchup insight, and disciplined process, because in the long run, numbers always beat narratives.

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