Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 4 Picks — Chelsea-Liverpool Under, Jays ML, Miami -4 | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we turn numbers into narratives and edges into execution. Today’s October 4 slate takes us through London, Toronto, and Tallahassee—with three plays grounded in matchup precision and quantitative edge.

We kick off in the Premier League. Four straight Liverpool matches have stayed under, and three of Chelsea’s last four have followed suit. With Cole Palmer out and the backline held together by duct tape, Chelsea’s playbook screams “safety first.”

Liverpool, coming off a wobble, have been talking about “getting back to basics”—manager-speak for “no more track meets.” Both sides know that chaos plays into the other’s strength, so expect a cautious tempo and risk control. Think chess, not checkers—2–0 either way feels right.

Next, we’re north of the border. Kevin Gausman’s splitter remains the ultimate gatekeeper—it keeps power bats quiet. Luis Gil, meanwhile, owns a 13.5% walk rate and one of the lowest chase rates in the league, which means traffic, stress, and high pitch counts.

Toronto’s bullpen is rested, and they’ve dominated this matchup at home, going 6–1 at Rogers Centre. The Yankees can mash, sure, but Gausman’s command and environment control matter more. If Judge homers solo, we tip our cap—this is still ace + setting > boomsticks every time.

Finally, to college football. Miami comes off a bye week with one of the nastiest front sevens in the country—top 10 against the run, allowing just 76 yards per game. That’s bad news for a Florida State offense that lives off inside-zone rhythm.

The Hurricanes’ pass rush has stacked 70 pressures in four games, and their offensive design picks apart the quarters coverage FSU leans on. Add rest advantage plus a defense that converts chaos into field position, and the math points one way. Doak Campbell will be deafening, but math doesn’t care about noise. Miami by a touchdown.

That wraps up today’s plays for October 4:

• Under 3.5 in Chelsea-Liverpool

• Blue Jays Moneyline vs Yankees

• Miami -4 over Florida State

Each selection built on data, matchup logic, and market discipline, because over time, numbers always beat narratives.

⚽ Liverpool at Chelsea — Under 3.5 (-160)⚾ Yankees at Blue Jays — Toronto Moneyline (-120)🏈 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State — Miami -4 (-110)

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