Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 6 Picks — Chiefs-Jaguars Over, Dodgers-Phillies Over, Cubs-Brewers Over | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we don’t chase chaos — we calculate it. For today’s October 6 slate, we’ve got three totals across the NFL and MLB that all lean toward one direction: points, power, and pace.

We’ll start on the gridiron. Both defenses are good on paper — but that’s exactly why this total holds value. Jacksonville leads the league in takeaways with nine interceptions through four games, and turnovers mean short fields and cheap points.

Meanwhile, Travis Etienne has quietly turned into a breakaway machine at 6.1 yards per carry, and those explosives can flip a drive in seconds. If this game devolves into field goals, it’s only because both defenses brought tongs to the BBQ. We’re betting the grill still flares up.

Next, we’re at Citizens Bank Park for Game 2 of Dodgers-Phillies. Game 1 finished 5–3 — right on 8 — and tonight’s lefty-lefty matchup actually keeps the bats alive. The Dodgers rank top-3 in OPS vs left-handed pitching, with Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith all built to punish mistakes.

One hanging slider here becomes a souvenir. With Harrison Bader questionable, Philly’s outfield defense takes a hit — and against this lineup, that’s all it takes. Sometimes the sequel hits harder than the original.

We close in Milwaukee, where the Brewers already hung a 9-spot in Game 1. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga carries a 4.86 FIP and a fly-ball lean at just 29% ground-ball rate — the perfect storm for loud contact and scoreboard movement.

Milwaukee’s bats are rolling, and the roof will be closed, eliminating weather excuses. When an 8.0 total shows up at standard juice, that’s the market daring you to play it straight. We will.

That wraps up today’s slate for October 6:

• Over 46 in Chiefs-Jaguars

• Over 7.5 in Dodgers-Phillies

• Over 8 in Cubs-Brewers

Each selection built from context, model validation, and matchup volatility — because long-term edge doesn’t come from guessing; it comes from knowing when math meets momentum.

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars — Over 46 (-110)⚾ Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies — Over 7.5 (-110)⚾ Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers — Over 8 (-110)

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