Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 7 Picks — Mariners-Tigers Over, Jays-Yankees Over, Springer Prop | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where data meets discipline and chaos pays interest.

For October 7, we’ve got two totals and a prop, each built on batted-ball profiles, park factors, and pitcher contact metrics that whisper “over” before the first pitch is thrown.

We open in Comerica Park, where Jack Flaherty’s contact profile (18th-percentile Barrel %, 22nd Hard-Hit %) looks like lighter fluid against a Seattle lineup that finished third in MLB in home runs.

Logan Gilbert is strong, but even he allows sub-40 % grounders with around 9 % barrels—meaning Detroit can contribute.
Comerica suppresses runs, sure, but late innings bring leverage, tired relievers, and crooked numbers.
Think batting practice with security guards, not chess with mitts.

Next stop, the Bronx—where quiet hours don’t exist.
Shane Bieber’s 12.3 % barrel rate, 48 % hard-hit, and 1.79 HR/9 meet Yankee Stadium’s short porch and humid October air drifting to right.

On the flip side, Toronto’s patient, low-whiff bats will push Carlos Rodón into the zone, hiking his pitch count and summoning the bullpen early.
Two potent offenses plus a park that grades “bring your glove” equals fireworks.
Call it 6-4 and keep the lights on.

Juiced price, but sensible math. Springer needs an extra-base hit or two singles to clear this, yet Rodón’s four-seam/slider mix paired with his 9 % walk rate often yields free passes, not ropes.

Toronto’s approach turns at-bats into base runners, not highlight reels.
And if Boone cycles relievers, rhythm breaks further.
Expect a night of singles + walks > slugging—leadoff table-setter, not lumberjack.

That wraps October 7’s card:

• Mariners-Tigers Over 7.5

• Blue Jays-Yankees Over 7.5

• Springer Under 1.5 Total Bases

All grounded in hard-contact data, park context, and long-term process—because the edge isn’t emotion; it’s evidence.

⚾ Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (-105)⚾ Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees — Over 7.5 (-110)🎯 Prop Play — George Springer ( TOR ) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

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