Fat Dog and The Cat: Oct 8 Picks — Mariners ML, Brewers Upset, Phillies-Dodgers Over | Analytical Edge

Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat, where we don’t chase headlines — we chase value.

For October 8, the board gives us two tight moneylines and one total, each built on pitcher metrics, park factors, and market inefficiencies that still pay full price.

We open with a coin-flip price that doesn’t tell the full story. The Mariners’ offense runs hot against right-handed pitching, and their bullpen ranks among the most efficient in leverage spots.

Detroit’s contact quality has fallen off, and they’ve posted bottom-third run support numbers in three straight series. Seattle’s rotation stability plus lineup power plays better in tight scoring environments. Even if Comerica holds the long ball, expect sustained pressure — not silence.

Next up, a divisional spot that smells like value. Milwaukee’s contact metrics spike against lefties, and Chicago’s bullpen has quietly started to wobble with a 4.85 ERA over the last two weeks.

Milwaukee’s pitching depth gives them flexibility late, and at plus money, we’re taking the better late-game team. When linesmakers hang a +105 in a toss-up, they’re daring you to trust the market. We’ll trust the math instead.

Finally, we head west, where bats tend to speak louder than reputations. Citizens Bank may have closed for the year, but Dodger Stadium in October still rewards lift.

Both lineups grade top-five in barrel rate and hard-hit %, and both bullpens have seen heavy workloads in recent nights. When elite hitters get multiple looks at mid-90s heat, numbers rise. Expect traffic early and fireworks late — 5-4, 6-3, something loud either way.

That wraps up today’s slate for October 8:

• Mariners ML (-100)

• Brewers ML (+105)

• Phillies-Dodgers Over 7.5 (-110)

Each pick built on contact data, bullpen fatigue metrics, and late-season park factors — because the edge isn’t luck, it’s leverage.

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