Today’s picks:
Lazio +0.5 at Genoa
Everton vs West Ham Under 2.5
Miami Dolphins −2.5 vs New York Jets
J.K. Dobbins Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s breakdown for September 29, 2025, we tackle four sharp plays across European football and the NFL.
We open in Serie A, where Lazio head to Genoa. Injuries in midfield and Genoa’s sputtering attack point strongly toward value on Lazio +0.5, capitalizing on defensive solidity and low-event match dynamics.
Next, in the Premier League, we focus on Everton versus West Ham United. With managerial adjustments and Everton’s sturdy home defense, the data points to a low-scoring battle—our edge lies on the Under 2.5 goals.
Shifting to the NFL, we highlight the Miami Dolphins −2.5 against the Jets. Miami’s speed advantage, explosive passing game, and quarterback stability give them a clear edge at home in this matchup.
Finally, we break down a player prop: J.K. Dobbins Under 65.5 rushing yards. With Denver’s committee backfield, game-script risk, and a middling matchup, the line looks inflated. The under offers long-term value.
Each pick comes backed by context, numbers, and reasoning you can trust—because sustainable performance is the only way forward.
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