Today’s picks:
Tarik Skubal (DET) — Under 7.5 Ks (-108) — Tigers at Guardians
New York Yankees (-136) — Red Sox at Yankees
Under 7 (-108) — Reds at Dodgers
Welcome back to Fat Dog and The Cat. In today’s breakdown for September 30, 2025, we deliver three sharp MLB plays powered by data-driven analysis and matchup context.
We begin with Tarik Skubal’s strikeout prop. Despite his electric stuff, Cleveland’s high-contact approach and recent form make the Under 7.5 Ks the value side. We detail why discipline and contact metrics matter more than raw strikeout rates here.
Next, the spotlight shifts to Yankees vs. Red Sox. With New York holding the bullpen edge and lineup stability, we break down why the Yankees -136 holds hidden value against their rivals in this late-season clash.
Finally, we move to the Dodgers vs. Reds total, where pitching matchups and park-adjusted run environments point strongly to the Under 7. We explain the balance between starting arms, bullpen fatigue, and playoff positioning that reinforces the model’s projection.
Each play comes with the numbers and reasoning you can trust because sustainable performance beats short-term luck.
Follow us for more:
🐦 X (Twitter): @wallybristles
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist
It’s 1996 in rural North Carolina, and an oddball crew makes history when they pull off America’s third largest cash heist. But it’s all downhill from there. Join host Johnny Knoxville as he unspools a wild and woolly tale about a group of regular ‘ol folks who risked it all for a chance at a better life. CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist answers the question: what would you do with 17.3 million dollars? The answer includes diamond rings, mansions, velvet Elvis paintings, plus a run for the border, murder-for-hire-plots, and FBI busts.