February 9, 2023 • 42 mins
On this Back Story the Wagner Group, meddling in Africa, fighting in Ukraine, who are they? Guns for hire, unleashed by the Kremlin. We talk to Soufan Center expert Colin Clarke.
And from Kyiv, Life Line Charity's Paul Niland on the war in Ukraine.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We will always come out on top of evil.
This lies at the core of, ofour, but also your traditions.
However, the horizon never staysclear for a while.
Once the old evil is defeated,the new one is attempting to
(00:22):
rise its head.
Do you have a feeling that evilwill crumble Once again?
I can see in your eyes now, wethink the same way as you do.
We know freedom will win.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of
backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
That was Ukrainian PresidentZelensky in London speaking to
British lawmakers, thanking themfor arms to fight off Russia,
lobbying for more weapons,including fighter aircraft.
Russia is launching a newoffensive as the one year
anniversary of the warapproaches February 24th,
(01:17):
Russian President Putin'sattempt of fight off a piece of
Ukraine has so far largelyfailed, but not altogether.
On this backstory, one ofPutin's attack dogs has been the
Shadowy Wagner Group.
We speak to the Suan Centerabout what is Wagner and why is
there a private army operatingout of Russia.
And we talk to podcast regularPaul Nyland in Kiev about the
(01:41):
war in his sense of how it'sadvancing or retreating as the
case may be.
Colin Clark is a senior researchfellow with the Suan Center
think tank and writes aboutinternational conflict and
terrorism.
Hi Colin.
Welcome back.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Thanks for having me.
Dana.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
11 months into the war in Ukraine's, significant
Russian military casualties,you've ridden have forced Moscow
to rely more heavily on theWagner Group, a criminal linked
private military company.
Is that true?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Yeah, it's true.
That's why I wrote it.
Uh, they've been forced to, uh,you know, scour prisons and
jails for manpower.
Uh, they've significantlylowered the barrier to entry to,
to be part of this, uh, armedforce.
And they're using theseindividuals as cannon fodder.
Uh, there's been reports ofvogner, uh, mercenaries fighting
(02:37):
like zombies just trudgingahead.
Um, and again, these are peoplethat are poorly trained, uh, and
not really motivated by anythingother than being out of jail.
So it's not a surprise, althoughthere's
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Been, I should have asked, is it true now?
Because it would seem that a lotof the Wagner group, um, ha, has
been chewed up in the fighting.
Um, and a lot of people wouldquestion how effective they've
been on the battlefield.
And then in fact, some of themilitary, and there's probably
three questions in this, butsome of the military, um,
shuffling by the Kremlin ofwho's leading the military,
(03:11):
would, would indicate that thethe army commanders are more in
charge than anybody from Wagnerwould be.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Well, I think that's true.
I think, you know, the, uh,general grass mobs of the world
are still, you know, looked uponas the, um, the cream of the
crop in terms of the Russianmilitary.
If Guinea Pergo in the leader ofthe Vogner group has really only
emerged since this conflict hasstarted as someone with a more
prominent position that's in andof itself led to infighting, uh,
(03:41):
between the group because he'slooking to claim credit.
Interestingly, uh, there was anannouncement, I think just this
week that, uh, Vogner would nolonger be recruiting from
prisons and jails, uh, whichmeans that, and, and you
described it correctly, it'sbeen a meat grinder.
They're running out of people.
I think, you know, even forindividuals that are felons and
(04:03):
convicts that are looking at,you know, really long jail
sentences, it's still preferableto stay in jail, then to go out
and be slaughtered on thebattlefield, uh, fighting for a
country that really doesn't carefor you in the first place.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
I should have started off with what is Wagner, because
it's a, it's a, a gun for hire.
Yeah.
Private military company that issupported by the Kremlin.
I mean, what does that mean?
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Yeah, so it's a, it's, in my opinion, it's an
extension of Russian foreignpolicy.
Uh, if you think about, um, uh,a private military company like
Blackwater used to be, uh, forexample, that's not the same as
the Vogner group, right?
Because Blackwater wasn't anextension of US foreign policy
per se.
(04:51):
Uh, there wasn't the same linksof command and control.
In fact, Blackwater could befairly autonomous.
Uh, they were looked at as aforce multiplier and a
particularly acute time of acutemanpower shortage.
And a lot of these guys were,were former military themselves.
Vogner is a different animal.
Um, there's a layer of strategicambiguity that very few people
(05:12):
buy into, including myself.
Um, I think, you know, theseguys are used, uh, because it's
convenient and, and because ofRussia is suffering, uh, you
know, significant losses on thebattlefield.
So they've brought them in, um,as a, as a matter of
desperation.
And it's a whole other questionabout whether they've been
effective or not.
That's a big debate right now.
(05:32):
I, I would say now,
Speaker 2 (05:33):
How, how does it, just before you go on the, how
does it serve Russian intereststo have them operating alongside
or in front of the Russian Army?
Like what, where, where is thedivision there of what one does
and what the other does?
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Yeah, so I think it, it suits it, it behooves the
Russians to have, uh,mercenaries on the battlefield
because, uh, if they, if theyweren't there there, the
Russians would have topotentially conscript
individuals, uh, closer to homeand, and potentially with people
that have, uh, links to, youknow, higher office.
(06:08):
When you start recruiting fromelite families in St.
Petersburg and Moscow, well, nowall of a sudden the war comes a
lot closer to home.
If you're just taking, you know,scraping the bottom of the
barrel and throwing, you know,criminals out there, no one
really cares, sadly, uh, thatthese individuals are, uh, are,
are being killed.
So it buys, it buys the Kremlintime, um, and it, you know, and,
(06:31):
and the process, it occupies theUkrainians, right, who have to
fight these guys, even thoughthey're not considered, uh,
elite by any stretch.
It also saves, uh, conventionalRussian military forces, uh, and
saves them to, to fight anotherday.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
So they had been operating before the Ukraine
War, though they were in Syria.
In fact, they came into conflictwith, uh, American forces that
were operating on the ground.
And then you've writtenextensively about them operating
in Africa, kind of in atransactional manner to, to
quote you, which is that they,they don't necessarily come in
(07:05):
and set up a diplomatic, there'sno diplomatic mission attached
to Wagner, or they don't come inand try to s you know, set up a
government that might befriendly to the Kremlin.
They seem to be there for theloop.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
There's nothing diplomatic about Wagner.
Uh, they are essentiallysecurity for, uh, mining
concessions, quid pro quo.
So they go in, they providequote unquote security, which is
really just, you know, kineticforce to a lot of dictators and
post coup leaders in Africanstates.
And in exchange, they're given,uh, access to gold mines,
(07:41):
uranium mines, uh, and otherways that Moscow is able to
evade sanctions.
Uh, and that's where if we wannatalk about are they effective,
are they not effective, uh, Iwould say that's probably their
most effective role is inplaying that kind of security
for concessions, um, role wherethey're, they're helping Moscow,
uh, gain revenue on thebattlefield.
(08:03):
You know, there, there's, it'sreally quantity over quality.
And, and so I'm a bit moreskeptical about how effective
they are fighting in places likeBach moot Sodar and elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
What do you think is the danger in Africa, for
instance, when they leave thoseareas, what kind of vacuum do
they leave behind and who fillsit?
Speaker 3 (08:24):
That's a great question.
I wrote about this for foreignpolicy, um, and I read it, and
this is something where theUnited States really needs to be
careful, and I would say USallies too, because as the US
withdraws, and if you listen,I've been critical of President
Biden in this regard.
He said, the US is withdrawingforces from places like
Sub-Saharan Africa, so we canfocus on great power
(08:45):
competition.
Uh, Moscow correctly sees Africaas part and parcel of great
power competition.
Uh, so when the resources rundry, the, the Russians are gonna
leave.
In fact, they have no long-termstrategic interest there.
And in the process, they'vedestabilized regions like the
Sahel, where they've committedgrievous human rights abuses,
(09:05):
which in turn has helped thesejihadi groups, Al-Qaeda and isis
, uh, linked to affiliatesrecruit new members.
So you now have an ungovernedspace where jihadi groups have
gained power and who's leftholding the bag?
There's gonna be pressure on theUnited States and France to go
back in and do something intothis region, which has been
(09:25):
devastated and destabilized.
And there's concern that thiscould turn into another
Afghanistan,
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Right?
I think General Petras said along time ago, wherever you
leave a vacuum, uh, it will befilled by extremists like Isis.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Without question.
I think he's absolutely rightabout that.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Tell me, do you think that there's a danger, I mean,
what is, if, if you, probably,when you're, when you're
analyzing Wagner, you must thinkof what is in Putin's head.
Is there not a danger ofallowing somebody like Pergo Zen
, uh, even if he's so-called,you know, a friend to Putin, uh,
of running, I don't wanna callit a state within a state, but
(10:06):
it's certainly an armed forcewithin a, within a, a country
that is independent and has evenclashed with the Russian
military.
Um, is there some danger therein allowing Proco to become too
powerful?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Yeah, I think that's what we're seeing right now,
actually.
Uh, you know, Pergo himself is aformer criminal, uh, and he went
from criminal to hotdog vendorto caterer, right?
Putin chef, to now essentially awarlord.
And I think, um, if you've seensome of the videos on Telegram,
where ProGo in and, and Vognertroops are, you know,
(10:40):
criticizing the Russian militaryin some fairly colorful and
pointed language, there doesseem to be a rift emerging, uh,
within the Russian side.
That's not surprising to me.
Um, you know, that command andcontrol is beginning to fray,
uh, because the Russians havebeen underperforming, uh, and,
and, you know, with their lackof focus on logistics, um,
they've really been strugglingand, and it's laid bare for
(11:03):
everyone to see.
So the fact that there'sinfighting doesn't surprise me.
I do think for, for Putin,someone that's a megalomaniac,
anyone that's becoming popular,he deems as a threat.
Uh, and so we'll see, you know,how long Pergo zen's able to
kind of keep his star risingbefore he gets, uh, shoved aside
and marginalized in favor ofsomeone else.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
I mean, there are a few competing groups, right?
I mean, Kadi, the, the Chechenleader, uh, has taken a
prominent role in the fightingin Ukraine and, and is often led
Chechen forces forward ahead ofthe Russian military, sometimes
supported by the Russianmilitary, sometimes he's been
extremely critical of, of theRussian Army, and even the
(11:43):
command in Moscow.
Uh, and then you have Pergo.
And now this week there havebeen reports that gas prom, I
mean, this is the, the, thestate, um, you know, gas and
energy provider talking aboutputting together some kind of
mercenary force.
I mean, how do you read that?
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Yeah, it's funny that the timing's interesting.
Cause I'm actually reading SteveCole's book right now.
Uh, ExxonMobil and AmericanPower.
And so there's long been linksbetween energy companies and the
need to have some kind of asecurity force, because these,
these companies typicallyoperate in fairly unstable
regions.
And so, uh, the fact that thereis an armed force connected to
(12:23):
an energy firm, not necessarilynovel, uh, by any stretch, but
it, you know, there's been a lotof twists and turns in, in the
last 11 months.
So I, you know, very few thingssurprise me at this point.
Um, gas prom developing its ownarmed force.
Sure, why not?
The, the question becomes, whereare those people called from?
Right?
I mean, it's likely the samepool of individuals, uh, that
(12:46):
Vogner is attempting to recruitfrom, or that the Kremlin is, is
attempting to conscript, right?
It's not like they're goingoutside of Russia.
So, you know, I'm a bitskeptical as to how effective
that force might be.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Some people would say that this is very much in line
with how Putin operates, that helikes to, he likes to divide and
have everybody worried andlooking over their shoulder at,
at, at the shadows, um, a aroundthem.
And that, you know, by havingdifferent arm groups, uh, he
always has that security thatnobody has too much power.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
Yeah.
That's been his strategy.
Although I'd say he's a poorstrategist.
I mean, in the West, we've builthim up to be 10 feet tall, um,
and reality's probably aboutfive foot six.
Uh, and, and that's, I, I'mjoking, but it, it shows because
, uh, you know, he,
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Sorry, that, that's what these elevator shoes on or
off
Speaker 3 (13:35):
.
Yeah.
I mean, he, he was reallyoverconfident going into this
conflict, thought it was gonnabe, uh, a cakewalk.
And it's proven to be anything.
But, and I haven't seen reallymajor adjustments coming from
Putin himself.
Uh, there's been a lot of fingerpointing and hand ringing.
Uh, but in terms of, you know,the direction, and again, he's
not a military man.
(13:55):
He's an Intel guy, right?
He's former kgb.
He's not former Russianmilitary.
Uh, so it doesn't surprise methat he's not the strategist
that many have made him out tobe.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
La Last question to you, Colin, and that would be,
do you, is there a risk, um,maybe it's not so clever having
too many different addresses forpower in Russia that in fact,
there could be a risk to Putinhimself from Pergo Zen or Pergo
Zen could, uh, be a successor toPutin if he becomes that
powerful?
Speaker 3 (14:24):
It could be.
And, and I think you're right.
When you decentralize power tothe extent that we're seeing
now, it becomes harder to kindof marshal and master forces,
right?
So when you see these divisionswithin the kind of Russian side,
uh, which are probably beingexacerbated on a daily basis,
uh, that pales in comparison to,uh, the cohesion, the surprising
(14:45):
cohesion, in my opinion, thatwe've seen on the NATO side, uh,
where NATO countries havelargely, uh, been in agreement
about supplying Ukraine withtroops, equipment, and trading
for the most part.
I mean, you had the wholeleopard debate.
There's a lot of kind of, youknow, I'll show you mine if you
show me yours, uh, gamesmanshipthat that's going on.
But, but compared to theRussians, I'd say NATO is far
(15:08):
more unified, uh, going, youknow, on a year into this
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Conflict.
Colin Clark with the Suan Center, always a pleasure, Colin,
thank you so much.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Paul Nyland, uh, a regular on this podcast is in
Kiev.
He runs Lifeline Ukraine, whichis a suicide prevention charity
helping among others, Ukrainianwar vets.
Hi, Paul.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
Hi Diner.
It's always good to join you.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Good.
Always great to hear from you.
And Kivan, can you give me someidea what life is, is like in
Kyiv?
I mean, we were just talkingbefore I pressed record, and you
were saying a lot of peopledon't even answer these, uh,
incoming missile alerts and godown into bomb shelters, which
surprises me.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Well, you know, I, I mean, one of the best responses
to Putin is to, is to continueliving as normal a life as
possible.
Um, you know, I mean, the, thereare inconveniences to life in
Kiev.
We're, we're dealing, again,we're, we're still dealing with
this schedule of, of rollingpower outages.
And so, you know, I I, I beginmy day by looking at where I'm
(16:14):
gonna have power, where I'mgonna work from.
I'm, I'm gonna be at home for afew hours in the office for a
few hours.
But it's an inconvenience.
It's, it's, it's, it's no morethan that.
Uh, I mean, of course a riskdoes exist because we, you know,
they have targeted Kiev as wellas many other cities across the
country.
The risk exists.
Absolutely.
Risk drone.
Yeah.
The, the, of course there's arisk, but, but you know, by the
(16:37):
same token, I've got things todo, you know, as you just said,
I, I, I run a charity here and,and, you know, I've, I've things
that I have to get done as I goabout my daily business.
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Let me ask you this then.
Is there a feeling of a stormcoming from Russia?
Because I mean, so much isbeing, is talked about in this
new planned defensive by Russia,especially around, um, February
the 24th, the anniversary dateof the r original Russian
invasion.
I mean, I know you're in touchwith a lot of people there.
(17:07):
What is your feeling that, thatRussia has got in terms of the,
the, the next attempt to throw ahard ride at Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (17:16):
Look, Putin loves anniversaries, and he loves
significant dates.
And I mean, we, we've seenattacks on Ukraine that fell on
Independence Day.
We, we, we, we saw the murder ofAnna Poll Kaska in Moscow in her
apartment building on Putin'sbirthday.
You know, he, it's symbolicdates are a, are a big deal for
(17:36):
him.
So yes, I think we can expectsomething.
Um, I mean, he's also talkedabout capturing the entirety of
Danette Lugansk by the end ofMarch, but he's, he's, he's
issuing orders to his militarythat they're simply not capable
of fulfilling.
Will, will there be more andmore of their, uh, poorly
(17:56):
trained conscripts thrownagainst the Ukrainian armed
forces to try to a trip them andto, to, you know, kill and wound
as many Ukrainians as possiblemilitary and civilians?
Yes, absolutely.
We, we anticipate that that isgonna continue, and that is why
Ukraine has to have the capacityto be able to, uh, respond to
(18:20):
Putin's constant escalation, youknow, and there, there's,
there's a view in the West aboutwhat, what Russia might consider
to be an escalation, but whatwas the, the essence of your
question?
Is there another escalationcoming from Putin?
Yes, there is.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
So how do you, I mean, as a journalist, I don't
like to, you know, I think war'sa a horrible thing as a human
being.
I think war's a horrible thing.
Um, and, and talk of moreweapons, more weapons, more
weapons, is the answer to theconflict.
Leave me somewhat uncomfortable.
But the realities are, are therealities in terms of h how do
(18:55):
you stop this conflict?
And a lot of people think theonly way to stop it is for
Russia to withdraw, and theyhave to be beaten back.
Were you watching PresidentZelensky deliver these messages
the last few days in London,today in the European Union?
Um, you know, gimme, gimmebigger guns, give, give me war
planes.
And and are you comfortable withthat?
Speaker 4 (19:16):
I, I, I watched the speech from, uh, from Parliament
yesterday, um, which I thoughtwas excellent.
Um, I, I mean, we, we, we haveto look at what the, the war
aims are.
And the best way to do that isto sadly, um, look at what the
Russian propagandists aresaying, and the, the odious, uh,
(19:36):
margarita Simian that yesterdayor the day before, she w she was
saying, um, you, you have to,uh, change your, uh, uh,
intentions according to yourcapabilities.
So she says, we want toliberate, liberate, I mean,
destroy and, and, and captureland that they're not entitled
to, but they're, they're talkingabout all of dank, all of
(19:59):
Lugansk, all of Zeria and all ofHeron.
They will not be welcomed backinto Heron City.
That's an absolute fact.
Right?
But, but they're still talkingabout that.
And, and then she went on tosay, do we want Odessa and
Nikolai as well?
Yes.
But maybe at this time we can'ttake it.
Maybe we'll have to come backfor more.
Right?
So when they're talking in termslike that about, you know,
(20:22):
turning Ukraine into a rumpstate with absolutely zero
access to export eitheragriculture or steel, or
whatever it is that we've beenexporting over the years.
I mean, they already have donethat on the sea.
Jank was an important, portMarik was a, an important port.
And that's,
Speaker 2 (20:40):
I mean, it certainly reinforces this point that if
you don't stop them now, theywill continue, uh, and try and
take more and try, try and takemore later.
And if they can't get it now,they'll take it next month or
next year.
Um, and that, that that's theonly solution of conflicts to
push them back.
The
Speaker 4 (20:56):
Only solution just coming, the, the only solution
is to completely defeat them.
Because if you, if you were tolook at what would be the goals
of taking Odessa and Nikola,it's to then link, not just have
the landbridge from mainland,well, from Russia proper to
occupied Crimea, but it alsothen links up trans inria, and
it opens Moldova up to attack aswell.
And we've, we've seen SergeiLabov four days ago saying that
(21:20):
mold over is the next projectthat the West is trying to turn
into an anti-Russian country, etcetera, et cetera.
You know, and, and they stillkeep talking
Speaker 2 (21:28):
About translation.
Yeah.
Cause I've, I've had to coverLav Roth for 20 some odd years
mm-hmm.
, whenever he saysthat the West is trying to do
something, it means Russia'strying to do something.
And he's laying the tile workfor stepping into Moldova
further into Moldova, becausethey're already occupying part
of it.
Right.
But exactly.
The, the, they're steppingfurther into Moldova.
(21:50):
So you, it's, it's though, it'salways the upside down with
labral.
Speaker 4 (21:55):
Yeah.
Yes.
I mean, the, the, the one skillthat he has is, is to be a, a, a
bare face liar.
You see no flicker of emotion or, I mean, his eyes don't, don't
betray him when he is tellinglies.
He's so good at it.
He's been doing it for years.
But, but no, you're, you'reexactly right.
You know, I mean, they, theyalready occupy a part of, of
Moldova, interestingly,actually, one of the people who
(22:17):
showed up in, uh, in Danette in2014, actually was transplanted
from Trans Israel.
He, he'd been, I think he wasthe deputy Minister, minister of
Defense or something like thatin this Russian created and
Russian controlled enclave thereon the borders of Moldova and,
and Ukraine.
And, and when they created, whenthe Russians created the, the
(22:40):
Danette People's Republic, theyshipped this guy in, his name
was Vladimir Ahan Tuev orsomething like that.
I wrote about him in one of myarticles that I wrote like six,
seven years ago.
Like, it, it was called Creatingthe Fake Republics.
And it was an analysis of, ofthe Russian characters that had
been inserted there that weresimply not locals, and so
therefore can never be called.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
And some of them documented to be for former K G
B, uh, F s B.
I mean, this was not agrassroots uprising by any
estimation.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
So in fact, TUEV, his background was, he was one of
the ahman officers in the Balticstates.
And when they were reassertingtheir independence, he was
involved in, uh, uh, one of thedeadly incidents that left
multiple fatalities amongst thelocals there.
And, and, uh, just before he wasabout to be arrested by the
(23:32):
legitimate authorities, I forgetwhether it was Latvia or
Lithuania, but just before hewas about to be arrested, um,
somebody, uh, gave him a tip offand he bugged out and went to
Transista, which had alreadybeen created by that time.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
President Zelensky, you know, is delivering this
message to Europe now that thisis Europe's future.
Yep.
But if you don't support Ukraine, uh, there, there goes the rest
of Europe as well.
Is that true too dramatic, uh, amessage to high stakes, uh, uh,
(24:06):
you know, uh, a calculation thatthe West has to make do, is it,
is it an over dramatization, um,of what's happening?
Does it, let, let me spin myquestion one more time.
Does it create this impossible,uh, blockage of any future
(24:26):
ceasefire or, or peace talksthat might involve some kind of
temporary or otherwiseterritorial compromise in
Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (24:36):
?
Um, okay.
So first of all, I don't thinkVladimir Zelensky is over egging
or over exaggerating anything atall.
Um, we, we, Russia is a roguestate that interferes in the
internal affairs of countriesthroughout Europe.
We know that they support boththe far left and the far right
in many countries.
We, we, I mean, you and I havediscussed it in, in, in the
(24:59):
past, in actual fact, I think wetalked about the example of
Marine Le Pen's bank loan thatshe got from a, a, a Russian
bank that ended up, according toan ft investigation being, uh,
you know, an a a a, anapartment, you know, in a, a
residential area on theoutskirts of Moscow, right?
Um, Putin, Putin destabilizeseverywhere.
And the, the fact of the matteris, is that his regime will not
(25:23):
survive beyond the defeat ofRussia militarily in Ukraine.
And so by defeating Russia inUkraine, we will bring an end to
that rogue regime thatinterferes everywhere.
It interferes in Austrianpolitics, in German politics in
the uk.
They obviously had a hand inBrexit.
(25:43):
We know about the, um, series ofmeetings between, uh, Aaron
Banks and, uh, and, and, andRussian figures, particularly
figures from the Russianembassy.
We know about the, the, theconservative friends of Russia.
And you know, how, how they have, um, bought influence within
(26:04):
one of the major politicalparties, um, in the United
Kingdom.
They, they, they sewed influencein the other one when Jeremy
Corbin was the Libra leader ofthe Labor Party as well.
And he had Shamus mil and, andAndrew Murray as, as two of his
key advisors, both of whom areknown Putin regimes or suck up.
Right.
Um, yeah.
Put Putin, Putin is a bad playereverywhere.
(26:26):
Everywhere.
And so Zelensky is exactlyright.
I haven't seen actually what hesaid in Europe today.
I've been, I've been busy, and I, I had an appointment that I've
just come back from right now,but, but I'll be catching up on
that.
And I, I'm, I'm certain that hismessage is right and, and the
other, but the other thing,
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Well, he, he said, he said, let me, let me be your
news source today.
However, however wobbly that maybe, Zelensky was asked by, by a
reporter about the UK'sannouncements that it started to
provide training to Ukrainianpilots.
Mm-hmm.
.
Um, and he said, interestingly,and he kind of flirted with it
yesterday, anyway, he said, ourvisit to London achieved
results.
(27:02):
And we have moved towardsdecisions concerning long-range
missiles in the training of ourpilots.
That is an important road togetting fighter fighter jets
that we need.
And he adds that there arecertain agreements which are not
public, but are positive.
Do you wanna take a guess atwhat they might be?
Speaker 4 (27:21):
I mean, you can, you can look back at what has
already been provided to Ukraineand see how that was paving the
way for the provision ofaircraft down the line.
So a lot of these radar systemsthat, that have, have been sent
into the country, they'redesigned to interact with modern
Western fighter jets that, that,I mean, as a standalone piece of
(27:44):
kit, they're very, very usefulto us for detecting incoming
missiles and drones and whatnot.
But, but in terms of targetingthe enemy from the air, that's
what those radar units are builtfor.
And obviously, there's no pointin training pilots if the planes
are not gonna come afterwards.
It, it, it must happen.
And, and when we look towardsUkraine's counter Offensives
(28:08):
that we will see, um, breakingthe, the land bridge to Crimea
that has been created in the,the immediate Blitzkrieg in, in,
in late February and early Marchof last year, um, you know, the,
the, the main battle tanksflanked by infantry fighting
vehicles, the Bradleys and so onthat are coming in from the
United States mm-hmm.
(28:28):
, um, uh, supportedby superior, by, by air
dominance.
You know, that's how we knock ahole in that landbridge.
That's how we liberate me topol.
That's how we liberate Burk.
I mean, it's, that's why's
Speaker 2 (28:43):
How, you know, it's full of, it's full of escalatory
what ifs, right?
Because if you have an aircraftfiring on a Ukrainian aircraft
from Russia, you know, when theUkrainian aircraft fires back at
that target or takes out amissile launcher on the other
side of the border, I, I mean,you, you, you know, where it
(29:04):
all, I don't know where itleads, but it, it paves the road
towards, you know, just more andmore escalation involving direct
attack on, on Russia.
That's the, that's the fear,right?
Speaker 4 (29:15):
No, but I mean, you, I, I understand that that's the
fear.
And in fact, the last articlethat I wrote, my, my most recent
article is always my, my pintweet.
It, it's about not takingseriously any of these
utterances that come out ofRussia that are, you know, this
next step is escalatory.
(29:35):
The, the high Mars wasescalatory, the, the provision
of
Speaker 2 (29:39):
You wouldn't consider, you wouldn't consider
firing an aircraft over Russianairspace escalatory.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
So Daniel, the, the head of the National Security
and Defense Council, uh, twodays ago, was very explicit
about this.
And, and he said, we have givenassurances guarantees to our
Western partners that we willnot use their weapons to attack,
uh, assets, military assetsinside of Russia, but we have
our own weapons that cancertainly hit them, and we will.
(30:05):
And, and Ukraine has alreadybeen doing this.
And the other way that you haveto look at this as well is, is
in what Russia perceives Russiato be, which is, which is one of
the things that I wrote aboutright in, in my most recent
article, that's they perceive
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Crime that apparently is a borderless state that, uh,
wants to expand under poendlessly.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
Yeah, exactly.
Exactly.
And, and the recent maps ofRussia, the, uh, Russia that
have been, uh, uh, put outinclude all of Heon, all of
Zara, et cetera, et cetera, whenthey have no hope of gaining all
of those oblasts anyway, but,but going back to the question
of what does Russia consider tobe Russia, they absolutely
consider that Crimea wrongly isa part of Russia.
(30:49):
We are hitting Crimea already.
We are hitting air bases inCrimea.
We are hitting refineries inCrimea.
We hit the Crimea bridge, the,the, the Strait Bridge.
Right.
And at the end of the day, Whatdid Russia do?
Did they, did they come throughon their threats or their,
their, you know, Russianmilitary doctrine says that they
(31:11):
can use a nuclear weapon ifthere is a threat to the
territorial integrity of Russia.
Well, they have them, and theydeclared Headon to be Russia as
well.
And they, when we liberated it,they went back across the other
side of the DRA River and, andset up new lines of, of defense
over there.
Right.
Well, lines of defense andattack, because they
continually, since Leb, theliberation of the city of, of,
(31:35):
of, they continue bombarding iton a daily basis to make the
lives of civilians theremiserable.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Te Tell me, just to conclude and, and, and try to
wrap this up because there's somany things I wanna talk to you
about, but, um, do you think aswe look forward that the war in
Ukraine is going to be decidedin the next few months in terms
of the, these are criticalbattles that, that will probably
take place, um, depending on whowins territory, who loses
(32:06):
territory that will shape notonly the ground, but it will
shape the atmosphere fordiscussions going forward?
Speaker 4 (32:15):
I, I do believe that there's going to be decisive
events in the coming months, um,that, that do change the course
of the war.
Right.
Uh, and, and they will be, as Imentioned earlier on, uh,
liberating the cities that areon the, as of Coast Mepo and,
and Buran and, and, and breakingthat landbridge.
And at the point that theLandbridge is broken, Russia has
(32:38):
achieved nothing in this war.
Right?
They, they thought that, youknow, they, if they connected
Russia proper to Crimea, thenthey'd sustain their holdover.
It breaking the Landbridge saysRussia will not sustain their
holdover over the peninsula ofCrimea on.
And the only other way ofsupplying Crimea other than
boats and ferries is, is the,the Kurt Strait Bridge, which
(33:00):
we've proven we can hit once,and it can be hit again, and it
will be hit again.
And at that point, then Crimeaand Russia's occupation of it,
Crimea becomes isolated.
And the occupation I isuntenable from, from there on
forward.
And especially with the longerrange weapons that we've been
promised now as well, becausemore and more Russian military
(33:21):
assets on the peninsula ofCrimea can be targeted and will
be targeted as well when, whenwill be the end of the war.
I I know you've spoken withGeneral Ben Hodges on, on
several occasions, and, and heis one of the most bull people
on this.
Um, he's repeatedly said thatCrimea can be liberated by
(33:41):
August.
And I, I, I bow to his greaterknowledge.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
He is a cult following, by the way.
And, and because a lot of peoplefeel that he says what the White
House won't say or that thePentagon should say and doesn't
say.
Yeah, it's interesting, um, thereactions that, that I've had
from those interviews, becauseHodges is all about, uh,
breaking that land bridge andthen putting the Ukraine army in
(34:07):
the position of bombardingCrimea and making an untenable
mm-hmm.
or for theRussians.
And it's, it's chilling to thinkthat that could be just around
the corner in a, in a, in amonth or, or three or four.
Um, and, and what reaction thatwill bring from Russia,
Speaker 4 (34:26):
It, it, well, it's going to be then Russia's
internal problem of, of how theywork through the chaos.
That is going to be the, the,the, the, the power vacuum that
will come with the fall of the,the Putin regime.
But that's Russia's problem todeal with.
And I'm,
Speaker 2 (34:44):
I mean, it may be then that that's when Russia
tries to re really get back tothe table with Ukraine and bring
about some kind of ceasefire andwithdrawal.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
That's, that's what must happen.
Ul ultimately it's, it, it's thefull withdrawal of, of all
Russian occupying forces fromall parts of Ukraine.
And whoever Ukraine ends upnegotiating that with and
whatever international mediationcomes with it, there, there're
steps that are further down theroad, but a as, as we discussed
the, the, the breaking of thelandbridge and, and the cutting
(35:16):
off of the other supply route toCrimea simply makes Russia
holding it untenable.
And, and the long range missilestrikes makes the military
occupation or it, it, it endsit.
And, and that's, that's alwaysbeen Ukraine's military goal.
And, and not just the militarygoal, but it's the, it, it, it,
it is the united positionposition of the vast majority,
(35:38):
like 97% of the Ukrainianpopulation as well.
This is what must happen, thisis how it must end.
And no Ukrainian citizens, andthis is a, a really, really key,
important point.
No Ukrainian citizens can beleft behind occupied or lines of
occupation where they're subjectto torture and arbitrary
(35:58):
execution and, and, and rape andthe, the, the, the, the
appropriation of theirproperties and just being
treated like, you know, likesecond class citizens in their
own country, it, it, everyUkrainian citizen in every inch
of Ukrainian land must beliberated.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Paul, just last word to you on Lifeline Ukraine,
which probably is now more indemand than it's ever been in
terms of, you know, being thereto help, uh, you know, su to
stop, stop, not stop suicide,but to help people, uh, in that
space, how, how do peoplesupport you and what would you
(36:36):
say about Lifeline UK Ukraine?
Just really quickly to wrap itup.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
So, um, we're, we're currently funded by a grant, uh,
from U S I I D, um, through anorganization called I Rex.
Um, and we had some savings inour last grant, so we just agree
to small cost extension withthem.
Um, I've got other grantapplications that are in with
various, uh, other parties aswell.
We take private donationsthrough PayPal and, and, and,
(37:00):
uh, and so on.
But, um, in, in, in terms ofdemand af after the Battle of
Kiev, when I was looking at therealities that the country
faces, what I, what I realizedwas that Lifeline Ukraine as a,
as a national support system forthe country, needed to, um, sh
(37:21):
we needed to shift how weoperate and, and to, to bring in
further expertise on the kind ofissues facing the Ukraine as a
result of occupation, forexample.
And it's awful, but victims ofsexual violence from, you know,
previously occupied areas,right?
Um, it, that's one of the thingsthat, that, that we've added
(37:43):
training to
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Documented as war crimes right now and, and, and
going to the Hague in alllikelihood.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
And, and I mean, it's, it's one of the elements
of the war crimes and the,there's a long read on the New
Yorker, um, talking about thepsychologists who are helping
the, the, the victims of suchcrimes that is absolutely
harrowing in, in what itdescribes.
But sorry,
Speaker 2 (38:02):
But I didn't mean to interrupt you because you said
that was an element of thethings that Lifeline Ukraine is
doing.
What else?
Speaker 4 (38:07):
So, um, the, the, the demand for support from Lifeline
Ukraine has, has gone from, uh,around about a thousand calls in
chats, um, total interactionsper month before February the
24th, up to around 3000 now.
And so, you know, it's a, it's athreefold increase in the, the,
the, the instances of supportthat we're providing.
(38:30):
I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm immenselyproud of the work that my, my
colleagues do.
And, you know, I'm, I, I look atmyself as I, I'm the guy that
brought it together.
I'm the guy that organized athing, and I, I manage a thing
and I, I'm out there, you know,hunting for grants and applying
for funding extensions and thatkind of thing.
It's, it's my colleagues, Dana,that, that do this like 24 hours
(38:53):
a day, seven days a week, and doan interesting thing actually
from the early days, like bebefore we built the, the, the,
the national reputation that wehave now.
Like sometimes we'd be quiet,sometimes I'd have two
colleagues, three colleagues inthe office, and, and there'd be
no calls going on at thatmoment.
And the, the instant the phonerings, they would rush between
(39:13):
them to be the one who wouldanswer that call, and they never
know what they're going to face.
It could be a conversation with,with somebody who is, is lonely.
It could be a conversation withsomebody who's, uh, struggling
with addiction.
It, it might be, uh, anemergency situation where
there's an imminent threat ofsomebody taking their own life,
(39:36):
uh, whatever the circumstances.
They don't know until theyanswer that phone, but they,
they, they rush between them tobe the one, to be the next one
to answer the next call.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
I'm sorry, you're one of the few organizations that I
wished wasn't successful interms of that there wasn't any
demand for it, you know?
But, uh, it's great that you'rethere and, uh, and people can
look up online if they wannaknow more about Lifeline Ukraine
and Paul Nyland, just put, youknow, put it in your browser and
there's lots on, you can findthe site and you can read in
(40:06):
and, and find a way to supportas well.
So thank you so much, Paul,
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Uh, a, a pleasure again chatting with you.
And, um, you know, it's not justthat we are necessary as
lifeline Ukraine here inUkraine.
Uh, suicide prevention hotlinesare necessary in every single
country in the world, and theyexist in every single country in
the world as well.
Ukraine didn't have one until webuilt ours.
So I, I thank you very much forbringing that into the
conversation as well, Dana, tillnext time,
Speaker 2 (40:30):
Paul Nyland and Kiev, thanks so much, Paul.
And that's this week'sbackstory.
Our hearts go out and ourprayers too, to the tens of
thousands of people affected inTurkey and Syria by this week's
horrible earthquake.
Time has run out on so manytrapped and collapsed buildings.
It's truly a humanitariandisaster on a monstrous scale.
(40:52):
I'm Dana Lewis.
Thanks for listening toBackstory, and I'll talk to you
again soon.
We will always come out on top of evil.
This lies at the core of, ofour, but also your traditions.
However, the horizon never staysclear for a while.
Once the old evil is defeated,the new one is attempting to
(00:22):
rise its head.
Do you have a feeling that evilwill crumble Once again?
I can see in your eyes now, wethink the same way as you do.
We know freedom will win.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Hi everyone, and welcome to another edition of
backstory.
I'm Dana Lewis.
That was Ukrainian PresidentZelensky in London speaking to
British lawmakers, thanking themfor arms to fight off Russia,
lobbying for more weapons,including fighter aircraft.
Russia is launching a newoffensive as the one year
anniversary of the warapproaches February 24th,
(01:17):
Russian President Putin'sattempt of fight off a piece of
Ukraine has so far largelyfailed, but not altogether.
On this backstory, one ofPutin's attack dogs has been the
Shadowy Wagner Group.
We speak to the Suan Centerabout what is Wagner and why is
there a private army operatingout of Russia.
And we talk to podcast regularPaul Nyland in Kiev about the
(01:41):
war in his sense of how it'sadvancing or retreating as the
case may be.
Colin Clark is a senior researchfellow with the Suan Center
think tank and writes aboutinternational conflict and
terrorism.
Hi Colin.
Welcome back.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
Thanks for having me.
Dana.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
11 months into the war in Ukraine's, significant
Russian military casualties,you've ridden have forced Moscow
to rely more heavily on theWagner Group, a criminal linked
private military company.
Is that true?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Yeah, it's true.
That's why I wrote it.
Uh, they've been forced to, uh,you know, scour prisons and
jails for manpower.
Uh, they've significantlylowered the barrier to entry to,
to be part of this, uh, armedforce.
And they're using theseindividuals as cannon fodder.
Uh, there's been reports ofvogner, uh, mercenaries fighting
(02:37):
like zombies just trudgingahead.
Um, and again, these are peoplethat are poorly trained, uh, and
not really motivated by anythingother than being out of jail.
So it's not a surprise, althoughthere's
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Been, I should have asked, is it true now?
Because it would seem that a lotof the Wagner group, um, ha, has
been chewed up in the fighting.
Um, and a lot of people wouldquestion how effective they've
been on the battlefield.
And then in fact, some of themilitary, and there's probably
three questions in this, butsome of the military, um,
shuffling by the Kremlin ofwho's leading the military,
(03:11):
would, would indicate that thethe army commanders are more in
charge than anybody from Wagnerwould be.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Well, I think that's true.
I think, you know, the, uh,general grass mobs of the world
are still, you know, looked uponas the, um, the cream of the
crop in terms of the Russianmilitary.
If Guinea Pergo in the leader ofthe Vogner group has really only
emerged since this conflict hasstarted as someone with a more
prominent position that's in andof itself led to infighting, uh,
(03:41):
between the group because he'slooking to claim credit.
Interestingly, uh, there was anannouncement, I think just this
week that, uh, Vogner would nolonger be recruiting from
prisons and jails, uh, whichmeans that, and, and you
described it correctly, it'sbeen a meat grinder.
They're running out of people.
I think, you know, even forindividuals that are felons and
(04:03):
convicts that are looking at,you know, really long jail
sentences, it's still preferableto stay in jail, then to go out
and be slaughtered on thebattlefield, uh, fighting for a
country that really doesn't carefor you in the first place.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
I should have started off with what is Wagner, because
it's a, it's a, a gun for hire.
Yeah.
Private military company that issupported by the Kremlin.
I mean, what does that mean?
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Yeah, so it's a, it's, in my opinion, it's an
extension of Russian foreignpolicy.
Uh, if you think about, um, uh,a private military company like
Blackwater used to be, uh, forexample, that's not the same as
the Vogner group, right?
Because Blackwater wasn't anextension of US foreign policy
per se.
(04:51):
Uh, there wasn't the same linksof command and control.
In fact, Blackwater could befairly autonomous.
Uh, they were looked at as aforce multiplier and a
particularly acute time of acutemanpower shortage.
And a lot of these guys were,were former military themselves.
Vogner is a different animal.
Um, there's a layer of strategicambiguity that very few people
(05:12):
buy into, including myself.
Um, I think, you know, theseguys are used, uh, because it's
convenient and, and because ofRussia is suffering, uh, you
know, significant losses on thebattlefield.
So they've brought them in, um,as a, as a matter of
desperation.
And it's a whole other questionabout whether they've been
effective or not.
That's a big debate right now.
(05:32):
I, I would say now,
Speaker 2 (05:33):
How, how does it, just before you go on the, how
does it serve Russian intereststo have them operating alongside
or in front of the Russian Army?
Like what, where, where is thedivision there of what one does
and what the other does?
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Yeah, so I think it, it suits it, it behooves the
Russians to have, uh,mercenaries on the battlefield
because, uh, if they, if theyweren't there there, the
Russians would have topotentially conscript
individuals, uh, closer to homeand, and potentially with people
that have, uh, links to, youknow, higher office.
(06:08):
When you start recruiting fromelite families in St.
Petersburg and Moscow, well, nowall of a sudden the war comes a
lot closer to home.
If you're just taking, you know,scraping the bottom of the
barrel and throwing, you know,criminals out there, no one
really cares, sadly, uh, thatthese individuals are, uh, are,
are being killed.
So it buys, it buys the Kremlintime, um, and it, you know, and,
(06:31):
and the process, it occupies theUkrainians, right, who have to
fight these guys, even thoughthey're not considered, uh,
elite by any stretch.
It also saves, uh, conventionalRussian military forces, uh, and
saves them to, to fight anotherday.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
So they had been operating before the Ukraine
War, though they were in Syria.
In fact, they came into conflictwith, uh, American forces that
were operating on the ground.
And then you've writtenextensively about them operating
in Africa, kind of in atransactional manner to, to
quote you, which is that they,they don't necessarily come in
(07:05):
and set up a diplomatic, there'sno diplomatic mission attached
to Wagner, or they don't come inand try to s you know, set up a
government that might befriendly to the Kremlin.
They seem to be there for theloop.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
There's nothing diplomatic about Wagner.
Uh, they are essentiallysecurity for, uh, mining
concessions, quid pro quo.
So they go in, they providequote unquote security, which is
really just, you know, kineticforce to a lot of dictators and
post coup leaders in Africanstates.
And in exchange, they're given,uh, access to gold mines,
(07:41):
uranium mines, uh, and otherways that Moscow is able to
evade sanctions.
Uh, and that's where if we wannatalk about are they effective,
are they not effective, uh, Iwould say that's probably their
most effective role is inplaying that kind of security
for concessions, um, role wherethey're, they're helping Moscow,
uh, gain revenue on thebattlefield.
(08:03):
You know, there, there's, it'sreally quantity over quality.
And, and so I'm a bit moreskeptical about how effective
they are fighting in places likeBach moot Sodar and elsewhere.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
What do you think is the danger in Africa, for
instance, when they leave thoseareas, what kind of vacuum do
they leave behind and who fillsit?
Speaker 3 (08:24):
That's a great question.
I wrote about this for foreignpolicy, um, and I read it, and
this is something where theUnited States really needs to be
careful, and I would say USallies too, because as the US
withdraws, and if you listen,I've been critical of President
Biden in this regard.
He said, the US is withdrawingforces from places like
Sub-Saharan Africa, so we canfocus on great power
(08:45):
competition.
Uh, Moscow correctly sees Africaas part and parcel of great
power competition.
Uh, so when the resources rundry, the, the Russians are gonna
leave.
In fact, they have no long-termstrategic interest there.
And in the process, they'vedestabilized regions like the
Sahel, where they've committedgrievous human rights abuses,
(09:05):
which in turn has helped thesejihadi groups, Al-Qaeda and isis
, uh, linked to affiliatesrecruit new members.
So you now have an ungovernedspace where jihadi groups have
gained power and who's leftholding the bag?
There's gonna be pressure on theUnited States and France to go
back in and do something intothis region, which has been
(09:25):
devastated and destabilized.
And there's concern that thiscould turn into another
Afghanistan,
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Right?
I think General Petras said along time ago, wherever you
leave a vacuum, uh, it will befilled by extremists like Isis.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Without question.
I think he's absolutely rightabout that.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Tell me, do you think that there's a danger, I mean,
what is, if, if you, probably,when you're, when you're
analyzing Wagner, you must thinkof what is in Putin's head.
Is there not a danger ofallowing somebody like Pergo Zen
, uh, even if he's so-called,you know, a friend to Putin, uh,
of running, I don't wanna callit a state within a state, but
(10:06):
it's certainly an armed forcewithin a, within a, a country
that is independent and has evenclashed with the Russian
military.
Um, is there some danger therein allowing Proco to become too
powerful?
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Yeah, I think that's what we're seeing right now,
actually.
Uh, you know, Pergo himself is aformer criminal, uh, and he went
from criminal to hotdog vendorto caterer, right?
Putin chef, to now essentially awarlord.
And I think, um, if you've seensome of the videos on Telegram,
where ProGo in and, and Vognertroops are, you know,
(10:40):
criticizing the Russian militaryin some fairly colorful and
pointed language, there doesseem to be a rift emerging, uh,
within the Russian side.
That's not surprising to me.
Um, you know, that command andcontrol is beginning to fray,
uh, because the Russians havebeen underperforming, uh, and,
and, you know, with their lackof focus on logistics, um,
they've really been strugglingand, and it's laid bare for
(11:03):
everyone to see.
So the fact that there'sinfighting doesn't surprise me.
I do think for, for Putin,someone that's a megalomaniac,
anyone that's becoming popular,he deems as a threat.
Uh, and so we'll see, you know,how long Pergo zen's able to
kind of keep his star risingbefore he gets, uh, shoved aside
and marginalized in favor ofsomeone else.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
I mean, there are a few competing groups, right?
I mean, Kadi, the, the Chechenleader, uh, has taken a
prominent role in the fightingin Ukraine and, and is often led
Chechen forces forward ahead ofthe Russian military, sometimes
supported by the Russianmilitary, sometimes he's been
extremely critical of, of theRussian Army, and even the
(11:43):
command in Moscow.
Uh, and then you have Pergo.
And now this week there havebeen reports that gas prom, I
mean, this is the, the, thestate, um, you know, gas and
energy provider talking aboutputting together some kind of
mercenary force.
I mean, how do you read that?
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Yeah, it's funny that the timing's interesting.
Cause I'm actually reading SteveCole's book right now.
Uh, ExxonMobil and AmericanPower.
And so there's long been linksbetween energy companies and the
need to have some kind of asecurity force, because these,
these companies typicallyoperate in fairly unstable
regions.
And so, uh, the fact that thereis an armed force connected to
(12:23):
an energy firm, not necessarilynovel, uh, by any stretch, but
it, you know, there's been a lotof twists and turns in, in the
last 11 months.
So I, you know, very few thingssurprise me at this point.
Um, gas prom developing its ownarmed force.
Sure, why not?
The, the question becomes, whereare those people called from?
Right?
I mean, it's likely the samepool of individuals, uh, that
(12:46):
Vogner is attempting to recruitfrom, or that the Kremlin is, is
attempting to conscript, right?
It's not like they're goingoutside of Russia.
So, you know, I'm a bitskeptical as to how effective
that force might be.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Some people would say that this is very much in line
with how Putin operates, that helikes to, he likes to divide and
have everybody worried andlooking over their shoulder at,
at, at the shadows, um, a aroundthem.
And that, you know, by havingdifferent arm groups, uh, he
always has that security thatnobody has too much power.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
Yeah.
That's been his strategy.
Although I'd say he's a poorstrategist.
I mean, in the West, we've builthim up to be 10 feet tall, um,
and reality's probably aboutfive foot six.
Uh, and, and that's, I, I'mjoking, but it, it shows because
, uh, you know, he,
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Sorry, that, that's what these elevator shoes on or
off
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Yeah.
I mean, he, he was reallyoverconfident going into this
conflict, thought it was gonnabe, uh, a cakewalk.
And it's proven to be anything.
But, and I haven't seen reallymajor adjustments coming from
Putin himself.
Uh, there's been a lot of fingerpointing and hand ringing.
Uh, but in terms of, you know,the direction, and again, he's
not a military man.
(13:55):
He's an Intel guy, right?
He's former kgb.
He's not former Russianmilitary.
Uh, so it doesn't surprise methat he's not the strategist
that many have made him out tobe.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
La Last question to you, Colin, and that would be,
do you, is there a risk, um,maybe it's not so clever having
too many different addresses forpower in Russia that in fact,
there could be a risk to Putinhimself from Pergo Zen or Pergo
Zen could, uh, be a successor toPutin if he becomes that
powerful?
Speaker 3 (14:24):
It could be.
And, and I think you're right.
When you decentralize power tothe extent that we're seeing
now, it becomes harder to kindof marshal and master forces,
right?
So when you see these divisionswithin the kind of Russian side,
uh, which are probably beingexacerbated on a daily basis,
uh, that pales in comparison to,uh, the cohesion, the surprising
(14:45):
cohesion, in my opinion, thatwe've seen on the NATO side, uh,
where NATO countries havelargely, uh, been in agreement
about supplying Ukraine withtroops, equipment, and trading
for the most part.
I mean, you had the wholeleopard debate.
There's a lot of kind of, youknow, I'll show you mine if you
show me yours, uh, gamesmanshipthat that's going on.
But, but compared to theRussians, I'd say NATO is far
(15:08):
more unified, uh, going, youknow, on a year into this
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Conflict.
Colin Clark with the Suan Center, always a pleasure, Colin,
thank you so much.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Paul Nyland, uh, a regular on this podcast is in
Kiev.
He runs Lifeline Ukraine, whichis a suicide prevention charity
helping among others, Ukrainianwar vets.
Hi, Paul.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
Hi Diner.
It's always good to join you.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Good.
Always great to hear from you.
And Kivan, can you give me someidea what life is, is like in
Kyiv?
I mean, we were just talkingbefore I pressed record, and you
were saying a lot of peopledon't even answer these, uh,
incoming missile alerts and godown into bomb shelters, which
surprises me.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Well, you know, I, I mean, one of the best responses
to Putin is to, is to continueliving as normal a life as
possible.
Um, you know, I mean, the, thereare inconveniences to life in
Kiev.
We're, we're dealing, again,we're, we're still dealing with
this schedule of, of rollingpower outages.
And so, you know, I I, I beginmy day by looking at where I'm
(16:14):
gonna have power, where I'mgonna work from.
I'm, I'm gonna be at home for afew hours in the office for a
few hours.
But it's an inconvenience.
It's, it's, it's, it's no morethan that.
Uh, I mean, of course a riskdoes exist because we, you know,
they have targeted Kiev as wellas many other cities across the
country.
The risk exists.
Absolutely.
Risk drone.
Yeah.
The, the, of course there's arisk, but, but you know, by the
(16:37):
same token, I've got things todo, you know, as you just said,
I, I, I run a charity here and,and, you know, I've, I've things
that I have to get done as I goabout my daily business.
Right.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Let me ask you this then.
Is there a feeling of a stormcoming from Russia?
Because I mean, so much isbeing, is talked about in this
new planned defensive by Russia,especially around, um, February
the 24th, the anniversary dateof the r original Russian
invasion.
I mean, I know you're in touchwith a lot of people there.
(17:07):
What is your feeling that, thatRussia has got in terms of the,
the, the next attempt to throw ahard ride at Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (17:16):
Look, Putin loves anniversaries, and he loves
significant dates.
And I mean, we, we've seenattacks on Ukraine that fell on
Independence Day.
We, we, we, we saw the murder ofAnna Poll Kaska in Moscow in her
apartment building on Putin'sbirthday.
You know, he, it's symbolicdates are a, are a big deal for
(17:36):
him.
So yes, I think we can expectsomething.
Um, I mean, he's also talkedabout capturing the entirety of
Danette Lugansk by the end ofMarch, but he's, he's, he's
issuing orders to his militarythat they're simply not capable
of fulfilling.
Will, will there be more andmore of their, uh, poorly
(17:56):
trained conscripts thrownagainst the Ukrainian armed
forces to try to a trip them andto, to, you know, kill and wound
as many Ukrainians as possiblemilitary and civilians?
Yes, absolutely.
We, we anticipate that that isgonna continue, and that is why
Ukraine has to have the capacityto be able to, uh, respond to
(18:20):
Putin's constant escalation, youknow, and there, there's,
there's a view in the West aboutwhat, what Russia might consider
to be an escalation, but whatwas the, the essence of your
question?
Is there another escalationcoming from Putin?
Yes, there is.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
So how do you, I mean, as a journalist, I don't
like to, you know, I think war'sa a horrible thing as a human
being.
I think war's a horrible thing.
Um, and, and talk of moreweapons, more weapons, more
weapons, is the answer to theconflict.
Leave me somewhat uncomfortable.
But the realities are, are therealities in terms of h how do
(18:55):
you stop this conflict?
And a lot of people think theonly way to stop it is for
Russia to withdraw, and theyhave to be beaten back.
Were you watching PresidentZelensky deliver these messages
the last few days in London,today in the European Union?
Um, you know, gimme, gimmebigger guns, give, give me war
planes.
And and are you comfortable withthat?
Speaker 4 (19:16):
I, I, I watched the speech from, uh, from Parliament
yesterday, um, which I thoughtwas excellent.
Um, I, I mean, we, we, we haveto look at what the, the war
aims are.
And the best way to do that isto sadly, um, look at what the
Russian propagandists aresaying, and the, the odious, uh,
(19:36):
margarita Simian that yesterdayor the day before, she w she was
saying, um, you, you have to,uh, change your, uh, uh,
intentions according to yourcapabilities.
So she says, we want toliberate, liberate, I mean,
destroy and, and, and captureland that they're not entitled
to, but they're, they're talkingabout all of dank, all of
(19:59):
Lugansk, all of Zeria and all ofHeron.
They will not be welcomed backinto Heron City.
That's an absolute fact.
Right?
But, but they're still talkingabout that.
And, and then she went on tosay, do we want Odessa and
Nikolai as well?
Yes.
But maybe at this time we can'ttake it.
Maybe we'll have to come backfor more.
Right?
So when they're talking in termslike that about, you know,
(20:22):
turning Ukraine into a rumpstate with absolutely zero
access to export eitheragriculture or steel, or
whatever it is that we've beenexporting over the years.
I mean, they already have donethat on the sea.
Jank was an important, portMarik was a, an important port.
And that's,
Speaker 2 (20:40):
I mean, it certainly reinforces this point that if
you don't stop them now, theywill continue, uh, and try and
take more and try, try and takemore later.
And if they can't get it now,they'll take it next month or
next year.
Um, and that, that that's theonly solution of conflicts to
push them back.
The
Speaker 4 (20:56):
Only solution just coming, the, the only solution
is to completely defeat them.
Because if you, if you were tolook at what would be the goals
of taking Odessa and Nikola,it's to then link, not just have
the landbridge from mainland,well, from Russia proper to
occupied Crimea, but it alsothen links up trans inria, and
it opens Moldova up to attack aswell.
And we've, we've seen SergeiLabov four days ago saying that
(21:20):
mold over is the next projectthat the West is trying to turn
into an anti-Russian country, etcetera, et cetera.
You know, and, and they stillkeep talking
Speaker 2 (21:28):
About translation.
Yeah.
Cause I've, I've had to coverLav Roth for 20 some odd years
mm-hmm.
something, it means Russia'strying to do something.
And he's laying the tile workfor stepping into Moldova
further into Moldova, becausethey're already occupying part
of it.
Right.
But exactly.
The, the, they're steppingfurther into Moldova.
(21:50):
So you, it's, it's though, it'salways the upside down with
labral.
Speaker 4 (21:55):
Yeah.
Yes.
I mean, the, the, the one skillthat he has is, is to be a, a, a
bare face liar.
You see no flicker of emotion or, I mean, his eyes don't, don't
betray him when he is tellinglies.
He's so good at it.
He's been doing it for years.
But, but no, you're, you'reexactly right.
You know, I mean, they, theyalready occupy a part of, of
Moldova, interestingly,actually, one of the people who
(22:17):
showed up in, uh, in Danette in2014, actually was transplanted
from Trans Israel.
He, he'd been, I think he wasthe deputy Minister, minister of
Defense or something like thatin this Russian created and
Russian controlled enclave thereon the borders of Moldova and,
and Ukraine.
And, and when they created, whenthe Russians created the, the
(22:40):
Danette People's Republic, theyshipped this guy in, his name
was Vladimir Ahan Tuev orsomething like that.
I wrote about him in one of myarticles that I wrote like six,
seven years ago.
Like, it, it was called Creatingthe Fake Republics.
And it was an analysis of, ofthe Russian characters that had
been inserted there that weresimply not locals, and so
therefore can never be called.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
And some of them documented to be for former K G
B, uh, F s B.
I mean, this was not agrassroots uprising by any
estimation.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
So in fact, TUEV, his background was, he was one of
the ahman officers in the Balticstates.
And when they were reassertingtheir independence, he was
involved in, uh, uh, one of thedeadly incidents that left
multiple fatalities amongst thelocals there.
And, and, uh, just before he wasabout to be arrested by the
(23:32):
legitimate authorities, I forgetwhether it was Latvia or
Lithuania, but just before hewas about to be arrested, um,
somebody, uh, gave him a tip offand he bugged out and went to
Transista, which had alreadybeen created by that time.
Speaker 2 (23:45):
President Zelensky, you know, is delivering this
message to Europe now that thisis Europe's future.
Yep.
But if you don't support Ukraine, uh, there, there goes the rest
of Europe as well.
Is that true too dramatic, uh, amessage to high stakes, uh, uh,
(24:06):
you know, uh, a calculation thatthe West has to make do, is it,
is it an over dramatization, um,of what's happening?
Does it, let, let me spin myquestion one more time.
Does it create this impossible,uh, blockage of any future
(24:26):
ceasefire or, or peace talksthat might involve some kind of
temporary or otherwiseterritorial compromise in
Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (24:36):
Um, okay.
So first of all, I don't thinkVladimir Zelensky is over egging
or over exaggerating anything atall.
Um, we, we, Russia is a roguestate that interferes in the
internal affairs of countriesthroughout Europe.
We know that they support boththe far left and the far right
in many countries.
We, we, I mean, you and I havediscussed it in, in, in the
(24:59):
past, in actual fact, I think wetalked about the example of
Marine Le Pen's bank loan thatshe got from a, a, a Russian
bank that ended up, according toan ft investigation being, uh,
you know, an a a a, anapartment, you know, in a, a
residential area on theoutskirts of Moscow, right?
Um, Putin, Putin destabilizeseverywhere.
And the, the fact of the matteris, is that his regime will not
(25:23):
survive beyond the defeat ofRussia militarily in Ukraine.
And so by defeating Russia inUkraine, we will bring an end to
that rogue regime thatinterferes everywhere.
It interferes in Austrianpolitics, in German politics in
the uk.
They obviously had a hand inBrexit.
(25:43):
We know about the, um, series ofmeetings between, uh, Aaron
Banks and, uh, and, and, andRussian figures, particularly
figures from the Russianembassy.
We know about the, the, theconservative friends of Russia.
And you know, how, how they have, um, bought influence within
(26:04):
one of the major politicalparties, um, in the United
Kingdom.
They, they, they sewed influencein the other one when Jeremy
Corbin was the Libra leader ofthe Labor Party as well.
And he had Shamus mil and, andAndrew Murray as, as two of his
key advisors, both of whom areknown Putin regimes or suck up.
Right.
Um, yeah.
Put Putin, Putin is a bad playereverywhere.
(26:26):
Everywhere.
And so Zelensky is exactlyright.
I haven't seen actually what hesaid in Europe today.
I've been, I've been busy, and I, I had an appointment that I've
just come back from right now,but, but I'll be catching up on
that.
And I, I'm, I'm certain that hismessage is right and, and the
other, but the other thing,
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Well, he, he said, he said, let me, let me be your
news source today.
However, however wobbly that maybe, Zelensky was asked by, by a
reporter about the UK'sannouncements that it started to
provide training to Ukrainianpilots.
Mm-hmm.
Um, and he said, interestingly,and he kind of flirted with it
yesterday, anyway, he said, ourvisit to London achieved
results.
(27:02):
And we have moved towardsdecisions concerning long-range
missiles in the training of ourpilots.
That is an important road togetting fighter fighter jets
that we need.
And he adds that there arecertain agreements which are not
public, but are positive.
Do you wanna take a guess atwhat they might be?
Speaker 4 (27:21):
I mean, you can, you can look back at what has
already been provided to Ukraineand see how that was paving the
way for the provision ofaircraft down the line.
So a lot of these radar systemsthat, that have, have been sent
into the country, they'redesigned to interact with modern
Western fighter jets that, that,I mean, as a standalone piece of
(27:44):
kit, they're very, very usefulto us for detecting incoming
missiles and drones and whatnot.
But, but in terms of targetingthe enemy from the air, that's
what those radar units are builtfor.
And obviously, there's no pointin training pilots if the planes
are not gonna come afterwards.
It, it, it must happen.
And, and when we look towardsUkraine's counter Offensives
(28:08):
that we will see, um, breakingthe, the land bridge to Crimea
that has been created in the,the immediate Blitzkrieg in, in,
in late February and early Marchof last year, um, you know, the,
the, the main battle tanksflanked by infantry fighting
vehicles, the Bradleys and so onthat are coming in from the
United States mm-hmm.
(28:28):
dominance.
You know, that's how we knock ahole in that landbridge.
That's how we liberate me topol.
That's how we liberate Burk.
I mean, it's, that's why's
Speaker 2 (28:43):
How, you know, it's full of, it's full of escalatory
what ifs, right?
Because if you have an aircraftfiring on a Ukrainian aircraft
from Russia, you know, when theUkrainian aircraft fires back at
that target or takes out amissile launcher on the other
side of the border, I, I mean,you, you, you know, where it
(29:04):
all, I don't know where itleads, but it, it paves the road
towards, you know, just more andmore escalation involving direct
attack on, on Russia.
That's the, that's the fear,right?
Speaker 4 (29:15):
No, but I mean, you, I, I understand that that's the
fear.
And in fact, the last articlethat I wrote, my, my most recent
article is always my, my pintweet.
It, it's about not takingseriously any of these
utterances that come out ofRussia that are, you know, this
next step is escalatory.
(29:35):
The, the high Mars wasescalatory, the, the provision
of
Speaker 2 (29:39):
You wouldn't consider, you wouldn't consider
firing an aircraft over Russianairspace escalatory.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
So Daniel, the, the head of the National Security
and Defense Council, uh, twodays ago, was very explicit
about this.
And, and he said, we have givenassurances guarantees to our
Western partners that we willnot use their weapons to attack,
uh, assets, military assetsinside of Russia, but we have
our own weapons that cancertainly hit them, and we will.
(30:05):
And, and Ukraine has alreadybeen doing this.
And the other way that you haveto look at this as well is, is
in what Russia perceives Russiato be, which is, which is one of
the things that I wrote aboutright in, in my most recent
article, that's they perceive
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Crime that apparently is a borderless state that, uh,
wants to expand
Speaker 4 (30:27):
Yeah, exactly.
Exactly.
And, and the recent maps ofRussia, the, uh, Russia that
have been, uh, uh, put outinclude all of Heon, all of
Zara, et cetera, et cetera, whenthey have no hope of gaining all
of those oblasts anyway, but,but going back to the question
of what does Russia consider tobe Russia, they absolutely
consider that Crimea wrongly isa part of Russia.
(30:49):
We are hitting Crimea already.
We are hitting air bases inCrimea.
We are hitting refineries inCrimea.
We hit the Crimea bridge, the,the, the Strait Bridge.
Right.
And at the end of the day, Whatdid Russia do?
Did they, did they come throughon their threats or their,
their, you know, Russianmilitary doctrine says that they
(31:11):
can use a nuclear weapon ifthere is a threat to the
territorial integrity of Russia.
Well, they have them, and theydeclared Headon to be Russia as
well.
And they, when we liberated it,they went back across the other
side of the DRA River and, andset up new lines of, of defense
over there.
Right.
Well, lines of defense andattack, because they
continually, since Leb, theliberation of the city of, of,
(31:35):
of, they continue bombarding iton a daily basis to make the
lives of civilians theremiserable.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Te Tell me, just to conclude and, and, and try to
wrap this up because there's somany things I wanna talk to you
about, but, um, do you think aswe look forward that the war in
Ukraine is going to be decidedin the next few months in terms
of the, these are criticalbattles that, that will probably
take place, um, depending on whowins territory, who loses
(32:06):
territory that will shape notonly the ground, but it will
shape the atmosphere fordiscussions going forward?
Speaker 4 (32:15):
I, I do believe that there's going to be decisive
events in the coming months, um,that, that do change the course
of the war.
Right.
Uh, and, and they will be, as Imentioned earlier on, uh,
liberating the cities that areon the, as of Coast Mepo and,
and Buran and, and, and breakingthat landbridge.
And at the point that theLandbridge is broken, Russia has
(32:38):
achieved nothing in this war.
Right?
They, they thought that, youknow, they, if they connected
Russia proper to Crimea, thenthey'd sustain their holdover.
It breaking the Landbridge saysRussia will not sustain their
holdover over the peninsula ofCrimea on.
And the only other way ofsupplying Crimea other than
boats and ferries is, is the,the Kurt Strait Bridge, which
(33:00):
we've proven we can hit once,and it can be hit again, and it
will be hit again.
And at that point, then Crimeaand Russia's occupation of it,
Crimea becomes isolated.
And the occupation I isuntenable from, from there on
forward.
And especially with the longerrange weapons that we've been
promised now as well, becausemore and more Russian military
(33:21):
assets on the peninsula ofCrimea can be targeted and will
be targeted as well when, whenwill be the end of the war.
I I know you've spoken withGeneral Ben Hodges on, on
several occasions, and, and heis one of the most bull people
on this.
Um, he's repeatedly said thatCrimea can be liberated by
(33:41):
August.
And I, I, I bow to his greaterknowledge.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
He is a cult following, by the way.
And, and because a lot of peoplefeel that he says what the White
House won't say or that thePentagon should say and doesn't
say.
Yeah, it's interesting, um, thereactions that, that I've had
from those interviews, becauseHodges is all about, uh,
breaking that land bridge andthen putting the Ukraine army in
(34:07):
the position of bombardingCrimea and making an untenable
mm-hmm.
And it's, it's chilling to thinkthat that could be just around
the corner in a, in a, in amonth or, or three or four.
Um, and, and what reaction thatwill bring from Russia,
Speaker 4 (34:26):
It, it, well, it's going to be then Russia's
internal problem of, of how theywork through the chaos.
That is going to be the, the,the, the, the power vacuum that
will come with the fall of the,the Putin regime.
But that's Russia's problem todeal with.
And I'm,
Speaker 2 (34:44):
I mean, it may be then that that's when Russia
tries to re really get back tothe table with Ukraine and bring
about some kind of ceasefire andwithdrawal.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
That's, that's what must happen.
Ul ultimately it's, it, it's thefull withdrawal of, of all
Russian occupying forces fromall parts of Ukraine.
And whoever Ukraine ends upnegotiating that with and
whatever international mediationcomes with it, there, there're
steps that are further down theroad, but a as, as we discussed
the, the, the breaking of thelandbridge and, and the cutting
(35:16):
off of the other supply route toCrimea simply makes Russia
holding it untenable.
And, and the long range missilestrikes makes the military
occupation or it, it, it endsit.
And, and that's, that's alwaysbeen Ukraine's military goal.
And, and not just the militarygoal, but it's the, it, it, it,
it is the united positionposition of the vast majority,
(35:38):
like 97% of the Ukrainianpopulation as well.
This is what must happen, thisis how it must end.
And no Ukrainian citizens, andthis is a, a really, really key,
important point.
No Ukrainian citizens can beleft behind occupied or lines of
occupation where they're subjectto torture and arbitrary
(35:58):
execution and, and, and rape andthe, the, the, the, the
appropriation of theirproperties and just being
treated like, you know, likesecond class citizens in their
own country, it, it, everyUkrainian citizen in every inch
of Ukrainian land must beliberated.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Paul, just last word to you on Lifeline Ukraine,
which probably is now more indemand than it's ever been in
terms of, you know, being thereto help, uh, you know, su to
stop, stop, not stop suicide,but to help people, uh, in that
space, how, how do peoplesupport you and what would you
(36:36):
say about Lifeline UK Ukraine?
Just really quickly to wrap itup.
Speaker 4 (36:39):
So, um, we're, we're currently funded by a grant, uh,
from U S I I D, um, through anorganization called I Rex.
Um, and we had some savings inour last grant, so we just agree
to small cost extension withthem.
Um, I've got other grantapplications that are in with
various, uh, other parties aswell.
We take private donationsthrough PayPal and, and, and,
(37:00):
uh, and so on.
But, um, in, in, in terms ofdemand af after the Battle of
Kiev, when I was looking at therealities that the country
faces, what I, what I realizedwas that Lifeline Ukraine as a,
as a national support system forthe country, needed to, um, sh
(37:21):
we needed to shift how weoperate and, and to, to bring in
further expertise on the kind ofissues facing the Ukraine as a
result of occupation, forexample.
And it's awful, but victims ofsexual violence from, you know,
previously occupied areas,right?
Um, it, that's one of the thingsthat, that, that we've added
(37:43):
training to
Speaker 2 (37:43):
Documented as war crimes right now and, and, and
going to the Hague in alllikelihood.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
And, and I mean, it's, it's one of the elements
of the war crimes and the,there's a long read on the New
Yorker, um, talking about thepsychologists who are helping
the, the, the victims of suchcrimes that is absolutely
harrowing in, in what itdescribes.
But sorry,
Speaker 2 (38:02):
But I didn't mean to interrupt you because you said
that was an element of thethings that Lifeline Ukraine is
doing.
What else?
Speaker 4 (38:07):
So, um, the, the, the demand for support from Lifeline
Ukraine has, has gone from, uh,around about a thousand calls in
chats, um, total interactionsper month before February the
24th, up to around 3000 now.
And so, you know, it's a, it's athreefold increase in the, the,
the, the instances of supportthat we're providing.
(38:30):
I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm immenselyproud of the work that my, my
colleagues do.
And, you know, I'm, I, I look atmyself as I, I'm the guy that
brought it together.
I'm the guy that organized athing, and I, I manage a thing
and I, I'm out there, you know,hunting for grants and applying
for funding extensions and thatkind of thing.
It's, it's my colleagues, Dana,that, that do this like 24 hours
(38:53):
a day, seven days a week, and doan interesting thing actually
from the early days, like bebefore we built the, the, the,
the national reputation that wehave now.
Like sometimes we'd be quiet,sometimes I'd have two
colleagues, three colleagues inthe office, and, and there'd be
no calls going on at thatmoment.
And the, the instant the phonerings, they would rush between
(39:13):
them to be the one who wouldanswer that call, and they never
know what they're going to face.
It could be a conversation with,with somebody who is, is lonely.
It could be a conversation withsomebody who's, uh, struggling
with addiction.
It, it might be, uh, anemergency situation where
there's an imminent threat ofsomebody taking their own life,
(39:36):
uh, whatever the circumstances.
They don't know until theyanswer that phone, but they,
they, they rush between them tobe the one, to be the next one
to answer the next call.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
I'm sorry, you're one of the few organizations that I
wished wasn't successful interms of that there wasn't any
demand for it, you know?
But, uh, it's great that you'rethere and, uh, and people can
look up online if they wannaknow more about Lifeline Ukraine
and Paul Nyland, just put, youknow, put it in your browser and
there's lots on, you can findthe site and you can read in
(40:06):
and, and find a way to supportas well.
So thank you so much, Paul,
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Uh, a, a pleasure again chatting with you.
And, um, you know, it's not justthat we are necessary as
lifeline Ukraine here inUkraine.
Uh, suicide prevention hotlinesare necessary in every single
country in the world, and theyexist in every single country in
the world as well.
Ukraine didn't have one until webuilt ours.
So I, I thank you very much forbringing that into the
conversation as well, Dana, tillnext time,
Speaker 2 (40:30):
Paul Nyland and Kiev, thanks so much, Paul.
And that's this week'sbackstory.
Our hearts go out and ourprayers too, to the tens of
thousands of people affected inTurkey and Syria by this week's
horrible earthquake.
Time has run out on so manytrapped and collapsed buildings.
It's truly a humanitariandisaster on a monstrous scale.
(40:52):
I'm Dana Lewis.
Thanks for listening toBackstory, and I'll talk to you
again soon.
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