Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back to discuss the surge and record collapse back below 17.6 in the VIX Index. Plus, Reviewing the difference between the VIX Index (not tradable) and VIX Futures relative spike levels. Then, they go into the latest CPI numbers including CPI Supercore to see what is sticky and what is negative. Finally, they discuss whether Chairman Jerome Powel is going to disappoint markets with only a 25-bps cut when everyone seems to want more. All that and more including the yield curve inversion, mentions of job cuts vs AI on earnings calls in Q2, expectations for a soft, hard, or no landing and what the heck that even means.
VIX only takes 7 days to go back below 17.6 after spiking above 35
Comparing previous VIX Index surges and length to come back down
Difference between hard , soft, and no landings
Fed prepares for Jackson Hole meetings and sure to signal its interest rate intentions
Will Powell and the Fed disappoint markets?
Chance that Powel pushes back to not be bullied into rate cuts
Mentions of AI on corporate earnings calls vs mentions of job cuts and employment
Inverted yield curve and what the 2-year bond is predicting for rates in the future
Fed balance sheet below the radar
Will Fed stop letting treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds run off the balance sheet?
Comparing current and past VIX spikes against the relative spike level of the VIX futures
Mentioned in this Episode
Panic Overdone? | VIX 3rd Highest Spike Ever | How the Strategies Held Up | Short Volatility Trades
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2mF1zkDaqWZLRhumfs0VJh?si=j5sn9DZpS3mmyM3Y5VM_1A
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
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