Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. 

 

Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight

Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return

Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds

VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months

AAII Bull Bear Spreads says way bearish still

Fed dot plots

Fed Funds Futures rate expectations

Multiple Contraction is the reason for the drawdown not a reduction in earnings estimates

LEI Leading Economic Indicator

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=Using%20the%20Composite%20Indexes:%20The%20Leading%20Economic,economy%20is%20heading%20in%20the%20near%20term.&text=The%20CEI's%20four%20component%20indicators%E2%80%94payroll%20employment%2C%20personal,used%20to%20determine%20recessions%20in%20the%20US.

 

CME Fed watch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

Federal Reserve Dot Plots Summary of Economic Projections March 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdf

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [e-mail]