Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week.
Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility
Did the market bottom this week?
Comparing volatility in March 2020 to tariff selloff today
Context on how much market moved in a day to a normal year
Intraday move was literally 2 ½ hours for a market to move 9%
Biggest up days cluster around the biggest down days
Bond yields surging is a problem
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen gets when tariffs are paused for 90 days
The VIX Index wasn’t pricing the crazy daily moves we’ve seen in markets
Why investors shouldn’t panic sell
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
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