Excess Returns

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In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tari...

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In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great ...

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Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the d...

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In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Maubou...

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dom...

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In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's curren...

In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating pa...

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In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolio...

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be ca...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We al...

In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concen...

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an i...

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, internati...

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection o...

In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk...

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.

Ma...