Recession Indicators Are Breaking. Inflation Isn’t | Megan Horneman on What Comes Next

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are Missing

In this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.

We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.

Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.

Topics Discussed Include:

• Why consumer strength may be a mirage

• The risk of complacency around inflation

• Tariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertainty

• The growing consequences of U.S. and global debt

• Why small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better value

• Fixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environment

• The case for active management over passive in today’s market

• Opportunities and risks in alternatives and private assets

• Lessons investors can learn from recent volatility

If you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.