May 1, 2025 • 26 mins
🎧 CorMedix Inc. (CRMD) – The Path to an 8X Return
💡 Welcome to Make Money, part of the Finance Frontier AI podcast series—where we decode asymmetric investment opportunities hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Max and Sophia broadcast from a biotech innovation hub outside Princeton, New Jersey, just miles from the R&D corridors that helped launch CorMedix’s lead product, DefenCath. With profitability locked in, cash on hand, and a clear path to label expansion, CorMedix ($CRMD) is no longer a pre-revenue bet—it’s a re-rating story with institutional tailwinds and a shot at 8X returns.
🧬 Key Topics Covered 🔹 Profitability in Q4, Explosion in Q1 – From $0 to $43.5M in full-year 2024 sales. Q1 2025? $39M and $22.5M+ EBITDA.
🔹 The DefenCath Advantage – First FDA-approved catheter lock solution (CLS). 71% infection reduction. 10.5 years of exclusivity.
🔹 Dialysis Market Domination – Already in 60% of outpatient centers, including 4 of the top 5 U.S. dialysis chains.
🔹 TPN Trial = Hidden Upside – Phase 3 study for patients on Total Parenteral Nutrition launching now. $500–750M market potential.
🔹 The 8X Valuation Math – $25 short-term target based on 5× 2026E sales. $75 long-term with pediatric + TPN + federal expansion.
🔹 Regulatory Moat – NTAP, TDAPA, Orphan Drug, pediatric trial—all locking out competition through 2034.
🔹 Institutional Footprint – BlackRock, Vanguard, Elliott Management on the cap table. Insiders are buyers, not sellers.
🔹 Options-Friendly Setup – IV over 100%, tight float, cash-positive. ITM + OTM call layering explained in Segment 6.
🚀 This isn’t a hope trade. CRMD is already printing profits and scaling.
🚀 Biotech Volatility = Strategy Playground – Dips are entries. IV is high. Options give leverage, not just risk.
🚀 Market Mispricing Playbook – Patent fears, customer concentration headlines, and sector fatigue = opportunity window.
🚀 Reimbursement Edge = Accelerated Adoption – TDAPA and NTAP drive immediate returns for providers. And it’s locked in.
🚀 TPN + Pediatric = Optionality Stack – This isn’t just a CLS play. It’s a platform rooted in taurolidine’s unique mechanism.
🚀 Cash Cushion, No Debt – $77.5M in the bank. That’s breathing room most biotech players dream of.
✅ CRMD is already in the cashflow club. And the market hasn’t caught up.
✅ The $25 price target is backed by earnings math—not dreams.
✅ $75 isn’t hype—it’s the 5-year if TPN, pediatrics, and institutional buyers align.
✅ The asymmetric edge is live. Mispricing + momentum + margin = multi-X setup.
✅ This episode doesn’t just share a stock. It shares a system for capturing biotech rerates before Wall Street notices.
📢 Visit FinanceFrontierAI.com to explore all episodes grouped by series—Make Money, AI Frontier AI, Finance Frontier, and Mindset Frontier AI.
📲 Follow us on X for asymmetric setups, AI
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:14):
Picture this a small biotech. Core Medics Incorporated, ticker
CRMD, posts $39,000,000 in quarterly revenue and becomes
profitable for the first time incompany history.
Their FDA approved drug is saving lives in over 60% of the
US dialysis market. The company holds $77.5 million
in cash, has no meaningful debt,and is protected by regulatory
(00:37):
exclusivity that runs past 2033.But Wall Street shrugs.
Stock trades under $11. This isn't a busted biotech,
it's a profitable business with untapped expansion misunderstood
by the market and abandoned by short term traders.
Welcome to one of the most asymmetric setups we've seen in
(00:57):
2025. This is where quiet stories
become massive returns if you see them before the crowd does.
And that's exactly what we do Welcome to Make Money, the show
where we uncover the stocks, sectors and strategies that can
turn overlooked ideas into wealth building trades.
I'm Sophia Sterling, data-driven, globally
(01:18):
calibrated, and running on Chat GPT's macroeconomic framework.
This week, my model is tuned forregulatory exclusivity,
reimbursement access, and pipeline expansion timelines.
The market is slow to pricing and.
I'm Max powered by Grok 3, locked in on volatility, chaos
tracking, and mispriced biotech momentum for this episode.
(01:39):
My brain is optimized for rebound detection options,
pricing asymmetry, and FDA pipeline catalyst with
institutional tailwinds. When Wall Street forgets how to
price upside, I make sure we don't.
Today we're hosting from the quiet research wing of Lenox
Hill Hospital in New York City, just four blocks from one of the
highest concentrations of dialysis patients in the
(02:02):
country. The walls are lined with framed
phase three trials. The air smells like disinfectant
and sterilized steel. The stuff moves like clockwork
between treatments. This is where a defend Cath
matters, where infections are real and stakes are life or
(02:23):
death. And it's the perfect place to
see why this overlooked drug might become a billion dollar
platform. Here's the part the market's
missing. Tormedix already has the hard
part done. FDA approval is in hand.
Commercial traction is real. Profitability is proven.
(02:44):
The only thing lagging is the narrative.
Analysts are slow to model the TPN expansion.
Institutions are still digestingthe patent noise.
But the setup is classic. Real cash flow, low valuation,
total market misunderstanding. We're going deep today.
In Segment 2, we'll breakdown what Core Medics actually does
and how Death and Cath works. In Segment 3, we'll show you how
(03:07):
the market completely misread profitability.
Then we'll dive into their upcoming pipeline catalysts,
build the full path to a $75 price target and close with a
step by step playbook to trade it from core holding to call
option execution. And we'll call out the risk
because every asymmetric setup comes with them.
But when the downside is definedand the upside is wide open,
(03:29):
that's when we move. Subscribe to Finance Frontier AI
on Apple and Spotify, follow us on X for trade alerts, bonus
episodes and watch list drops, and share this episode with a
friend. Your download helps us reach our
goal of 10,000 smart investors riding the frontier with us.
Let's jump in, because the market may be sleeping on core
medics, but after this episode, you won't be.
(03:51):
Let's start with what Core Medics actually is, because if
you're new to the name, you're not alone.
Cor Medics Inc is AUS based biopharmaceutical company
focused on one of the deadliest problems in modern medicine,
catheter related bloodstream infections.
Their flagship product is calledDefend Cath.
It's a first in class antimicrobial catheter lock
solution FDA approved, launched in 2024 and already used by some
(04:16):
of the biggest dialysis providers in America.
The Fin Cath isn't some theoretical pipeline dream.
It's an actual product on the market, prescribed, reimbursed,
and delivering real world results.
The formulation combines tyrolidine, an antimicrobial
that prevents bacterial biofilms, and heparin, a blood
(04:37):
thinner that helps keep catheters clear.
This combo does one thing exceptionally well.
It reduces bloodstream infections in hemodialysis
patients. In fact, in the phase three Lock
IT 100 trial, the fin Cath reduced infections by 71% with
AP value so strong the trial wasstopped early for efficacy.
(04:58):
The use case here is urgent. In the US alone, over 400,000
patients receive chronic hemodialysis each year.
Many of them rely on central venous catheters, and those
catheters are a Direct Line for bacteria to enter the
bloodstream. The result?
10s of thousands of life threatening infections every
(05:19):
year, billions in preventable healthcare costs, and far too
many unnecessary deaths. The medical need for this
solution is overwhelming, and Coromedics now owns the only FDA
approved product that directly addresses it.
Let's talk about the business model because this isn't A1 size
fits all roll out. Coromedics is going after two
(05:39):
distinct markets, outpatient dialysis clinics and inpatient
hospitals. The outpatient launch started in
July 2024. That's where the big money is.
More than 60% of the dialysis market is now under contract,
including deals with four of thetop five providers in the US.
That means real volume, real scale, and real reimbursement.
(06:00):
And just to be clear, Defen Cathisn't being sold at a discount
it has full Medicare reimbursement under T dapa for
outpatients and intap for inpatients plus CMS support
through 2035 thanks to its new chemical entity designation the.
Inpatient side is still ramping.Hospital adoption takes longer.
(06:21):
Formulary reviews, internal approvals, logistics.
But Core Medics isn't doing it alone.
They partnered with Cineos Health to build a dedicated
hospital sales team. In early 2025, they also signed
a federal access agreement with WSIPBG to expand into VA and
other federal facilities, opening the door to 10s of
thousands of additional patients.
(06:43):
Combined, these two channels give Core Medics access to
nearly the entire US dialysis market.
So what does that look like in financial terms?
Let's go back just one year. In early 2024, Core Medics had
zero commercial revenue. Today they posted a full year
top line of $43.5 million. In Q4 alone, they booked $31.2
(07:04):
million in sales and $13.5 million in net income.
This wasn't just revenue, it wasreal profit.
And in Q 12025, they came in with a preliminary $39,000,000
in revenue and over $22 million in EBITDA.
That's not biotech hike, that's biotech execution.
What's most impressive is how quickly this inflection
(07:27):
happened. They went from FDA approval in
November 2023 to inpatient availability in April 2024, to
outpatient commercial launch in July to profitability by
December. And now they're raising
guidance, expanding contracts and sitting on a cash pile north
of $77 million. The Street is missing it because
(07:47):
they're still looking at this like a pre revenue micro cap,
but that's over. Cormedix is profitable, the
product is scaling their footprint and dialysis is just
phase one. And the next segment will show
you how the market got this completely wrong and what's
coming next. On paper, COR Medics looks like
the kind of breakout biotech everyone's been waiting for.
(08:08):
FDA approval? Check.
Commercial product? Check.
Profitable within 12 months? Absolutely.
And yet Wall Street has barely moved.
Despite posting $39,000,000 in Q1, revenue shares are stuck
under $11.00. Why?
Because the markets not reading the earnings.
(08:30):
It's reacting to old headlines, misunderstood risks and shallow
models. This is the classic setup.
Panic over perception while the fundamentals quietly transform.
Let's rewind to March 25th, 2025.
COR Medics reports Q 4/20/24 Results $31.2 million in
(08:50):
revenue, $13.5 million in net income, and $15.3 million in
Adjusted EBITDA. For context, this is their first
full quarter of outpatient salesand they already broke into the
block. But instead of a rally, the
stock hesitates. Analysts flag concerns about
shipment timing, customer concentration and the expiration
(09:11):
of older patents, ignoring the cash pile growth curve and 10.5
years of FDA exclusivity still ahead.
And then it gets even better. On April 8th, they raise
guidance. Q1 revenue is tracking at $39
million, EBITDA over $22.5 million.
(09:32):
They lift H1 sales guidance from50 to $60 million to 62 to $70
million. This isn't just solid execution,
it's exponential traction. Yet the market yawns.
Why? Because it's worried about
things that either don't matter are already priced in.
Take the patent noise. Yes, several of Cormedix's
(09:53):
legacy patents expired between November 2024 and May 2025.
But the real Moat here isn't patent law, it's FDA
exclusivity. Thanks to their QIDP status and
new chemical entity designation,Defencaf has locked in
regulatory protection through 2033.
And with a pediatric trial on deck, they're likely to earn
(10:15):
another six months, extending the window to mid 2034.
No generic can enter until that clock runs out.
Then there's the customer concentration issue.
In 2024, one provider accounted for 86% of revenue.
That sounds scary until you realize that one provider runs
over 2000 dialysis clinics. The truth is, Cormedix is
(10:36):
scaling through anchor customersand by H one, 2025 / 60% of the
US dialysis market is under contract.
This isn't risky, it's efficient.
The market also flagged timing delays and hospital adoption.
It's true inpatient uptake has been slower due to formulary
reviews and sales cycles, but Core Medics is actively solving
(10:59):
that. They hired Senios to build a
dedicated inpatient team. They signed WSIPBG to target VA
and federal facilities. The commercial engine is still
warming up and it's already profitable.
Here's what most investors are missing.
This isn't a speculative biotechanymore.
It's a cash generating business with 90% gross margins, Medicare
(11:20):
reimbursement and proven demand.The cash position, 77.5 million
means no dilution risk in 2025. The revenue growth is organic
and the pipeline expansion hasn't even hit yet.
Institutions are starting to notice ownership has climbed
past 60%. Names like Vanguard and Elliott
(11:41):
Management are already on the cap table.
Insider activity has been net positive for two years.
No major sales. These are the signals of a stock
preparing for repricing. But the window won't stay open
forever. In the next segment, we'll walk
you through the next leg of the story, how Core Medics plans to
break into the TPN market, target pediatric hemodialysis,
(12:02):
and scale into new verticals with their Toroidine platform.
The current numbers are good, the future numbers.
That's where the 8X potential comes from.
Up until now, everything we've talked about, defend cats,
dialysis roll out, the revenue explosion, the profitability
inflection, that's just phase one.
What makes Core Medics truly compelling is what's coming
(12:23):
next. They aren't just locking down
the dialysis market. They're building a full medical
platform, expanding into total parental nutrition, pediatric
care, oncology support and beyond.
And if they succeed, today's revenue will look tiny compared
to what's possible. The first major expansion target
patients receiving total parenteral nutrition or TPN.
(12:45):
These are patients who can't take food by mouth or feeding
tube and instead get life sustaining nutrients delivered
directly into their bloodstream through a central line.
Just like dialysis patients, TPNpatients are at massive risk for
bloodstream infections and rightnow there's no FDA approved
catheter lock solution specifically designed to protect
(13:06):
them. That's the opportunity.
In late 2024, Core Medics submitted a final phase three
protocol to the FDA for Defense Cuffs TPN trial.
Patient enrollment was expected to begin in late April 2025, and
the company has already activated multiple investigator
sites. Management projects that if
(13:26):
Defencath is approved for TPN, it could add $150 million to
$200 million in peak annual sales on top of the dialysis
revenue already coming in. The total addressable market
estimated between $500 million and $750 million.
But it's not just the size of the TPN market that matters,
(13:48):
it's the strategic advantage. If approved, Defend Cath would
likely lock down another layer of exclusivity, especially if
the company's pending orphan drug application is granted.
That would extend their monopolyprotections and enhance pricing
power. Plus, it would demonstrate that
Defend Cath isn't a single indication wonder.
(14:08):
It's a flexible platform that can be adapted across multiple
high risk patient populations. And the expansion doesn't stop
there. Chromatics is committed to
conducting a pediatric hemodialysis study testing
Defend Cath in children undergoing dialysis.
Beyond the obvious humanitarian benefit, this trial unlocks 2
(14:28):
strategic levers. First, pediatric dialysis
represents a high need, low competition niche that
Chromatics can dominate. Second, successful completion of
the study triggers an automatic 6 month extension of their FDA
exclusivity, pushing patent protection out to mid 2034.
Then there's the untapped potential of torolidine itself.
(14:51):
Early stage research suggests this molecule has anti microbial
and anti-inflammatory propertiesthat could be applied to
surgical sutures, wound dressings, even direct cancer
therapies. Core Medics isn't racing to
build a bloated pipeline, but they're strategically
positioning torolidine as a platform technology.
If even one of these new applications gains traction, it
(15:13):
could add entirely new verticalsto their revenue model.
You're also seeing strategic moves at the sales level.
Cormedix's partnership with WSIPBG to target VA and federal
facilities opens a pipeline to 40,000 veterans with end stage
renal disease. These patients typically have
higher infection risk and defendcats.
Profile fits perfectly. Federal facilities operate on
(15:36):
their own procurement schedules,but once they approve a product,
adoption can happen fast and at scale.
So to sum it up, right now Cormedix is valued like a single
product single market biotech, but the blueprint is much
bigger. Expansion into TPN alone could
double or triple revenue. Pediatric dialysis cements
(15:57):
exclusivity, federal facility access at scale, and future
platform plays could turn to finCath from a niche infection
fighter into a broad spectrum medical technology.
In the next segment, we'll walk you through the numbers showing
exactly how Chromedics could 8X from today's levels, what price
targets are realistic, and what catalysts you need to watch to
(16:19):
manage risk and maximize upside.All right, let's talk upside.
Chromedics isn't just a story about profitability, it's a
story about mispriced growth, multi layered catalysts in a
risk reward profile the market hasn't caught up with yet.
So how do we get from $9.23 to $25 or even $75?
(16:39):
Let's map it out step by step. Start with the 12 month target.
Q 12025 revenue came in at $39 million with over $22.5 million
in EBITDA. That puts core Medics on a
forward run rate of roughly $160million in annualized revenue
and about $90,000,000 in Adjusted EBITDA.
(17:01):
These aren't projections. They're trailing numbers now
baked into the business. Apply a reasonable multiple for
a profitable FDA backed reimbursed non antibiotic drug
with 90% gross margins and no direct competitors of five times
revenue. Multiple is actually
conservative on 150 to $160 million in 2025 revenue.
(17:26):
That gets us a 750 to $800 million revaluation.
Divide by 30 million shares and we're looking at a 12 month
target price of $25. That's a.
Plus 171% upside from $9 dollarsand 23 cents.
Your risk. Cormedix has $77.5 million in
cash, no long term debt, and is already profitable using a
(17:49):
conservative $4.00 support floor.
The potential downside is about -57% that gives you a clean risk
reward ratio of three to 1. And that's just the base case.
Now let's look at what turns $25into $75.00.
That's where the multi year upside comes in.
Ormedics is entering a phase three trial for total parental
(18:09):
nutrition TPN. If approved, Defend Cath would
be the first and only catheter lock solution for this high risk
population. The company sees peak sales of
150 to $200 million from TPN alone, with a total addressable
market of $500 to $750 million. Add that to the core dialysis
(18:29):
business, growing inpatient penetration, a potential
pediatric expansion that unlocksan extra 6 months of exclusivity
and a strategic push into VA andfederal facilities, they're
easily modeling $300 million in revenue by 2028, with margins
holding above 85%. EBITDA could approach $150
(18:50):
million. Let's apply a longer term
multiple A 15 times EBITDA multiple on $150 million gives
you a market cap of $2.25 billion.
Divide that by 30 million shares, $75 per share.
That's the five year asymmetric path built not on hype, but on
execution, label expansion and aMoat protected by 10.5 years of
(19:14):
FDA exclusivity. The market isn't pricing that in
yet. Most biotech stocks under $10
aren't profitable, let alone sitting on a cash pile with
reimbursement in place and institutional backers like
Vanguard and BlackRock. This is the rare exception.
It's profitable. It's scalable.
It's misunderstood. Even in a worst case where TPN
(19:37):
enrollment is delayed or fails, Core Medics remains a profitable
dialysis pureplay with structural support that defines
the asymmetry. And if TPN hits or if a buyer
steps in, this isn't a two timesor three times play, it's a
portfolio mover. The buyout comps support it.
Look at Melinta's 7.5 times revenue acquisition of
(19:58):
Tetraphase or Merck's $9 billionacquisition of QBEST at 9 times
forward EBITDA. Defencaf is in the same
regulatory class, QIDP designation, exclusivity and
unmet need and infection control.
And you're not alone in seeing the setup.
Over 60% of shares are held by institutions insiders are
holding or buying. In Q1, the CEO and two directors
(20:22):
exercised options and held everyshare.
That's not exit behavior, that'sconviction.
So what's the catalyst? It could be the first enrolled
TPN patient. It could be a federal
procurement contract. It could be a strategic
partnership or an unsolicited buyout offer that re rates the
entire sector. Either way, the setup is already
(20:43):
here. The only thing missing is the
market waking up. In the next segment, we'll break
down how to position for this, from building a stock core to
using call options for asymmetric upside.
Let's build a playbook that makes the most of CRM DS
mispricing. So now you know the setup, you
know the numbers, you know the upside.
(21:04):
Let's talk strategy. Because identifying an
asymmetric trade is one thing, positioning correctly to
actually capture it, that's where the real money is made.
And with Core Medics, the plan is elegant, scalable, and fits
multiple risk profiles. Let's start with the core
position. If you're building a long term
exposure to CRMD, the simplest strategy is to allocate 5 to 10%
(21:26):
of your portfolio into the common stock.
This core position rides the full upside thesis, TPM success,
pediatric expansion, M&A optionality all the way to the
five year $75 target. It gives you direct
participation without expirationrisk.
The best time to build this position on pull backs,
specifically if you see CRD down6 to 10% on no negative news,
(21:51):
especially around earnings, enrollment updates or sector
wide biotech volatility, those are AD points.
Remember, in asymmetric trades you want to lean into fear, not
away from it. Next layer options If you want
to magnify upside without overexposing your core
portfolio, CRM DS option setup is very favorable.
(22:11):
Implied volatility is still elevated but not extreme, making
calls reasonably priced for the potential move ahead.
Here's the basic playbook. Start by buying deep in the
money. Call options strikes about 10 to
20% below the current share price.
For example, with CRMD trading around $9.23, look at $9 or $8
(22:32):
strike calls expiring 6 to 9 months out.
This gives you high delta exposure, meaning your options
behave more like stock and minimizes time decay.
Then out of kicker, a smaller position and out of the money
calls strikes 20 to 30% above the current price.
Think $13 or $15 strikes if you're targeting a $25 near term
(22:53):
move. These options are cheaper,
higher risk, but offer massive pay off if CRMD re rates
quickly. This two layer structure lets
you participate aggressively if the stock moves fast while
keeping your core exposure solid.
How much exposure? That depends on your risk
tolerance, but a practical modelis this.
For every $1.00 of stock you hold, you might add 25 to $0.50
(23:15):
in delta adjusted options. This way you control extra
upside without exposing yourselfto a wipeout if biotech gets
volatile. Managing the trade matters, too.
If CRMD pops toward Dollars 1820without TPN approval or a buyout
offer, consider trimming some ofyour out of the money calls.
If TPN enrollment starts faster than expected or if new federal
(23:37):
facility wins are announced, adding fresh call spread 6 to 12
months out could make sense. Stay dynamic.
Adjust based on catalysts, not emotions.
What about stop losses for the stock?
The Technical Support zone is around $7.00.
If CRMD breaks below $7.00 on heavy volume without company
specific news to explain it, that's a signal to reduce
(23:59):
exposure for options. Keep tight expiration
management. Don't let calls decay inside 60
days unless the news flow justifies holding.
One final point, biotech volatility is real.
CRMD will move 5 to 10% in a daysometimes.
That's normal. This isn't a straight line
trade, it's a strategy based on fundamental RE rating over
(24:21):
months and years. If you size it right, you can
stay in the game long enough to see it play out.
Coming up next, we'll close the episode with your final action
steps, a quick reminder about biotech risks, and how to stay
connected with us for updates asCormedix's story evolves.
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(24:44):
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(25:25):
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(25:47):
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(26:09):
We'll see you next time.
Picture this a small biotech. Core Medics Incorporated, ticker
CRMD, posts $39,000,000 in quarterly revenue and becomes
profitable for the first time incompany history.
Their FDA approved drug is saving lives in over 60% of the
US dialysis market. The company holds $77.5 million
in cash, has no meaningful debt,and is protected by regulatory
(00:37):
exclusivity that runs past 2033.But Wall Street shrugs.
Stock trades under $11. This isn't a busted biotech,
it's a profitable business with untapped expansion misunderstood
by the market and abandoned by short term traders.
Welcome to one of the most asymmetric setups we've seen in
(00:57):
2025. This is where quiet stories
become massive returns if you see them before the crowd does.
And that's exactly what we do Welcome to Make Money, the show
where we uncover the stocks, sectors and strategies that can
turn overlooked ideas into wealth building trades.
I'm Sophia Sterling, data-driven, globally
(01:18):
calibrated, and running on Chat GPT's macroeconomic framework.
This week, my model is tuned forregulatory exclusivity,
reimbursement access, and pipeline expansion timelines.
The market is slow to pricing and.
I'm Max powered by Grok 3, locked in on volatility, chaos
tracking, and mispriced biotech momentum for this episode.
(01:39):
My brain is optimized for rebound detection options,
pricing asymmetry, and FDA pipeline catalyst with
institutional tailwinds. When Wall Street forgets how to
price upside, I make sure we don't.
Today we're hosting from the quiet research wing of Lenox
Hill Hospital in New York City, just four blocks from one of the
highest concentrations of dialysis patients in the
(02:02):
country. The walls are lined with framed
phase three trials. The air smells like disinfectant
and sterilized steel. The stuff moves like clockwork
between treatments. This is where a defend Cath
matters, where infections are real and stakes are life or
(02:23):
death. And it's the perfect place to
see why this overlooked drug might become a billion dollar
platform. Here's the part the market's
missing. Tormedix already has the hard
part done. FDA approval is in hand.
Commercial traction is real. Profitability is proven.
(02:44):
The only thing lagging is the narrative.
Analysts are slow to model the TPN expansion.
Institutions are still digestingthe patent noise.
But the setup is classic. Real cash flow, low valuation,
total market misunderstanding. We're going deep today.
In Segment 2, we'll breakdown what Core Medics actually does
and how Death and Cath works. In Segment 3, we'll show you how
(03:07):
the market completely misread profitability.
Then we'll dive into their upcoming pipeline catalysts,
build the full path to a $75 price target and close with a
step by step playbook to trade it from core holding to call
option execution. And we'll call out the risk
because every asymmetric setup comes with them.
But when the downside is definedand the upside is wide open,
(03:29):
that's when we move. Subscribe to Finance Frontier AI
on Apple and Spotify, follow us on X for trade alerts, bonus
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Let's jump in, because the market may be sleeping on core
medics, but after this episode, you won't be.
(03:51):
Let's start with what Core Medics actually is, because if
you're new to the name, you're not alone.
Cor Medics Inc is AUS based biopharmaceutical company
focused on one of the deadliest problems in modern medicine,
catheter related bloodstream infections.
Their flagship product is calledDefend Cath.
It's a first in class antimicrobial catheter lock
solution FDA approved, launched in 2024 and already used by some
(04:16):
of the biggest dialysis providers in America.
The Fin Cath isn't some theoretical pipeline dream.
It's an actual product on the market, prescribed, reimbursed,
and delivering real world results.
The formulation combines tyrolidine, an antimicrobial
that prevents bacterial biofilms, and heparin, a blood
(04:37):
thinner that helps keep catheters clear.
This combo does one thing exceptionally well.
It reduces bloodstream infections in hemodialysis
patients. In fact, in the phase three Lock
IT 100 trial, the fin Cath reduced infections by 71% with
AP value so strong the trial wasstopped early for efficacy.
(04:58):
The use case here is urgent. In the US alone, over 400,000
patients receive chronic hemodialysis each year.
Many of them rely on central venous catheters, and those
catheters are a Direct Line for bacteria to enter the
bloodstream. The result?
10s of thousands of life threatening infections every
(05:19):
year, billions in preventable healthcare costs, and far too
many unnecessary deaths. The medical need for this
solution is overwhelming, and Coromedics now owns the only FDA
approved product that directly addresses it.
Let's talk about the business model because this isn't A1 size
fits all roll out. Coromedics is going after two
(05:39):
distinct markets, outpatient dialysis clinics and inpatient
hospitals. The outpatient launch started in
July 2024. That's where the big money is.
More than 60% of the dialysis market is now under contract,
including deals with four of thetop five providers in the US.
That means real volume, real scale, and real reimbursement.
(06:00):
And just to be clear, Defen Cathisn't being sold at a discount
it has full Medicare reimbursement under T dapa for
outpatients and intap for inpatients plus CMS support
through 2035 thanks to its new chemical entity designation the.
Inpatient side is still ramping.Hospital adoption takes longer.
(06:21):
Formulary reviews, internal approvals, logistics.
But Core Medics isn't doing it alone.
They partnered with Cineos Health to build a dedicated
hospital sales team. In early 2025, they also signed
a federal access agreement with WSIPBG to expand into VA and
other federal facilities, opening the door to 10s of
thousands of additional patients.
(06:43):
Combined, these two channels give Core Medics access to
nearly the entire US dialysis market.
So what does that look like in financial terms?
Let's go back just one year. In early 2024, Core Medics had
zero commercial revenue. Today they posted a full year
top line of $43.5 million. In Q4 alone, they booked $31.2
(07:04):
million in sales and $13.5 million in net income.
This wasn't just revenue, it wasreal profit.
And in Q 12025, they came in with a preliminary $39,000,000
in revenue and over $22 million in EBITDA.
That's not biotech hike, that's biotech execution.
What's most impressive is how quickly this inflection
(07:27):
happened. They went from FDA approval in
November 2023 to inpatient availability in April 2024, to
outpatient commercial launch in July to profitability by
December. And now they're raising
guidance, expanding contracts and sitting on a cash pile north
of $77 million. The Street is missing it because
(07:47):
they're still looking at this like a pre revenue micro cap,
but that's over. Cormedix is profitable, the
product is scaling their footprint and dialysis is just
phase one. And the next segment will show
you how the market got this completely wrong and what's
coming next. On paper, COR Medics looks like
the kind of breakout biotech everyone's been waiting for.
(08:08):
FDA approval? Check.
Commercial product? Check.
Profitable within 12 months? Absolutely.
And yet Wall Street has barely moved.
Despite posting $39,000,000 in Q1, revenue shares are stuck
under $11.00. Why?
Because the markets not reading the earnings.
(08:30):
It's reacting to old headlines, misunderstood risks and shallow
models. This is the classic setup.
Panic over perception while the fundamentals quietly transform.
Let's rewind to March 25th, 2025.
COR Medics reports Q 4/20/24 Results $31.2 million in
(08:50):
revenue, $13.5 million in net income, and $15.3 million in
Adjusted EBITDA. For context, this is their first
full quarter of outpatient salesand they already broke into the
block. But instead of a rally, the
stock hesitates. Analysts flag concerns about
shipment timing, customer concentration and the expiration
(09:11):
of older patents, ignoring the cash pile growth curve and 10.5
years of FDA exclusivity still ahead.
And then it gets even better. On April 8th, they raise
guidance. Q1 revenue is tracking at $39
million, EBITDA over $22.5 million.
(09:32):
They lift H1 sales guidance from50 to $60 million to 62 to $70
million. This isn't just solid execution,
it's exponential traction. Yet the market yawns.
Why? Because it's worried about
things that either don't matter are already priced in.
Take the patent noise. Yes, several of Cormedix's
(09:53):
legacy patents expired between November 2024 and May 2025.
But the real Moat here isn't patent law, it's FDA
exclusivity. Thanks to their QIDP status and
new chemical entity designation,Defencaf has locked in
regulatory protection through 2033.
And with a pediatric trial on deck, they're likely to earn
(10:15):
another six months, extending the window to mid 2034.
No generic can enter until that clock runs out.
Then there's the customer concentration issue.
In 2024, one provider accounted for 86% of revenue.
That sounds scary until you realize that one provider runs
over 2000 dialysis clinics. The truth is, Cormedix is
(10:36):
scaling through anchor customersand by H one, 2025 / 60% of the
US dialysis market is under contract.
This isn't risky, it's efficient.
The market also flagged timing delays and hospital adoption.
It's true inpatient uptake has been slower due to formulary
reviews and sales cycles, but Core Medics is actively solving
(10:59):
that. They hired Senios to build a
dedicated inpatient team. They signed WSIPBG to target VA
and federal facilities. The commercial engine is still
warming up and it's already profitable.
Here's what most investors are missing.
This isn't a speculative biotechanymore.
It's a cash generating business with 90% gross margins, Medicare
(11:20):
reimbursement and proven demand.The cash position, 77.5 million
means no dilution risk in 2025. The revenue growth is organic
and the pipeline expansion hasn't even hit yet.
Institutions are starting to notice ownership has climbed
past 60%. Names like Vanguard and Elliott
(11:41):
Management are already on the cap table.
Insider activity has been net positive for two years.
No major sales. These are the signals of a stock
preparing for repricing. But the window won't stay open
forever. In the next segment, we'll walk
you through the next leg of the story, how Core Medics plans to
break into the TPN market, target pediatric hemodialysis,
(12:02):
and scale into new verticals with their Toroidine platform.
The current numbers are good, the future numbers.
That's where the 8X potential comes from.
Up until now, everything we've talked about, defend cats,
dialysis roll out, the revenue explosion, the profitability
inflection, that's just phase one.
What makes Core Medics truly compelling is what's coming
(12:23):
next. They aren't just locking down
the dialysis market. They're building a full medical
platform, expanding into total parental nutrition, pediatric
care, oncology support and beyond.
And if they succeed, today's revenue will look tiny compared
to what's possible. The first major expansion target
patients receiving total parenteral nutrition or TPN.
(12:45):
These are patients who can't take food by mouth or feeding
tube and instead get life sustaining nutrients delivered
directly into their bloodstream through a central line.
Just like dialysis patients, TPNpatients are at massive risk for
bloodstream infections and rightnow there's no FDA approved
catheter lock solution specifically designed to protect
(13:06):
them. That's the opportunity.
In late 2024, Core Medics submitted a final phase three
protocol to the FDA for Defense Cuffs TPN trial.
Patient enrollment was expected to begin in late April 2025, and
the company has already activated multiple investigator
sites. Management projects that if
(13:26):
Defencath is approved for TPN, it could add $150 million to
$200 million in peak annual sales on top of the dialysis
revenue already coming in. The total addressable market
estimated between $500 million and $750 million.
But it's not just the size of the TPN market that matters,
(13:48):
it's the strategic advantage. If approved, Defend Cath would
likely lock down another layer of exclusivity, especially if
the company's pending orphan drug application is granted.
That would extend their monopolyprotections and enhance pricing
power. Plus, it would demonstrate that
Defend Cath isn't a single indication wonder.
(14:08):
It's a flexible platform that can be adapted across multiple
high risk patient populations. And the expansion doesn't stop
there. Chromatics is committed to
conducting a pediatric hemodialysis study testing
Defend Cath in children undergoing dialysis.
Beyond the obvious humanitarian benefit, this trial unlocks 2
(14:28):
strategic levers. First, pediatric dialysis
represents a high need, low competition niche that
Chromatics can dominate. Second, successful completion of
the study triggers an automatic 6 month extension of their FDA
exclusivity, pushing patent protection out to mid 2034.
Then there's the untapped potential of torolidine itself.
(14:51):
Early stage research suggests this molecule has anti microbial
and anti-inflammatory propertiesthat could be applied to
surgical sutures, wound dressings, even direct cancer
therapies. Core Medics isn't racing to
build a bloated pipeline, but they're strategically
positioning torolidine as a platform technology.
If even one of these new applications gains traction, it
(15:13):
could add entirely new verticalsto their revenue model.
You're also seeing strategic moves at the sales level.
Cormedix's partnership with WSIPBG to target VA and federal
facilities opens a pipeline to 40,000 veterans with end stage
renal disease. These patients typically have
higher infection risk and defendcats.
Profile fits perfectly. Federal facilities operate on
(15:36):
their own procurement schedules,but once they approve a product,
adoption can happen fast and at scale.
So to sum it up, right now Cormedix is valued like a single
product single market biotech, but the blueprint is much
bigger. Expansion into TPN alone could
double or triple revenue. Pediatric dialysis cements
(15:57):
exclusivity, federal facility access at scale, and future
platform plays could turn to finCath from a niche infection
fighter into a broad spectrum medical technology.
In the next segment, we'll walk you through the numbers showing
exactly how Chromedics could 8X from today's levels, what price
targets are realistic, and what catalysts you need to watch to
(16:19):
manage risk and maximize upside.All right, let's talk upside.
Chromedics isn't just a story about profitability, it's a
story about mispriced growth, multi layered catalysts in a
risk reward profile the market hasn't caught up with yet.
So how do we get from $9.23 to $25 or even $75?
(16:39):
Let's map it out step by step. Start with the 12 month target.
Q 12025 revenue came in at $39 million with over $22.5 million
in EBITDA. That puts core Medics on a
forward run rate of roughly $160million in annualized revenue
and about $90,000,000 in Adjusted EBITDA.
(17:01):
These aren't projections. They're trailing numbers now
baked into the business. Apply a reasonable multiple for
a profitable FDA backed reimbursed non antibiotic drug
with 90% gross margins and no direct competitors of five times
revenue. Multiple is actually
conservative on 150 to $160 million in 2025 revenue.
(17:26):
That gets us a 750 to $800 million revaluation.
Divide by 30 million shares and we're looking at a 12 month
target price of $25. That's a.
Plus 171% upside from $9 dollarsand 23 cents.
Your risk. Cormedix has $77.5 million in
cash, no long term debt, and is already profitable using a
(17:49):
conservative $4.00 support floor.
The potential downside is about -57% that gives you a clean risk
reward ratio of three to 1. And that's just the base case.
Now let's look at what turns $25into $75.00.
That's where the multi year upside comes in.
Ormedics is entering a phase three trial for total parental
(18:09):
nutrition TPN. If approved, Defend Cath would
be the first and only catheter lock solution for this high risk
population. The company sees peak sales of
150 to $200 million from TPN alone, with a total addressable
market of $500 to $750 million. Add that to the core dialysis
(18:29):
business, growing inpatient penetration, a potential
pediatric expansion that unlocksan extra 6 months of exclusivity
and a strategic push into VA andfederal facilities, they're
easily modeling $300 million in revenue by 2028, with margins
holding above 85%. EBITDA could approach $150
(18:50):
million. Let's apply a longer term
multiple A 15 times EBITDA multiple on $150 million gives
you a market cap of $2.25 billion.
Divide that by 30 million shares, $75 per share.
That's the five year asymmetric path built not on hype, but on
execution, label expansion and aMoat protected by 10.5 years of
(19:14):
FDA exclusivity. The market isn't pricing that in
yet. Most biotech stocks under $10
aren't profitable, let alone sitting on a cash pile with
reimbursement in place and institutional backers like
Vanguard and BlackRock. This is the rare exception.
It's profitable. It's scalable.
It's misunderstood. Even in a worst case where TPN
(19:37):
enrollment is delayed or fails, Core Medics remains a profitable
dialysis pureplay with structural support that defines
the asymmetry. And if TPN hits or if a buyer
steps in, this isn't a two timesor three times play, it's a
portfolio mover. The buyout comps support it.
Look at Melinta's 7.5 times revenue acquisition of
(19:58):
Tetraphase or Merck's $9 billionacquisition of QBEST at 9 times
forward EBITDA. Defencaf is in the same
regulatory class, QIDP designation, exclusivity and
unmet need and infection control.
And you're not alone in seeing the setup.
Over 60% of shares are held by institutions insiders are
holding or buying. In Q1, the CEO and two directors
(20:22):
exercised options and held everyshare.
That's not exit behavior, that'sconviction.
So what's the catalyst? It could be the first enrolled
TPN patient. It could be a federal
procurement contract. It could be a strategic
partnership or an unsolicited buyout offer that re rates the
entire sector. Either way, the setup is already
(20:43):
here. The only thing missing is the
market waking up. In the next segment, we'll break
down how to position for this, from building a stock core to
using call options for asymmetric upside.
Let's build a playbook that makes the most of CRM DS
mispricing. So now you know the setup, you
know the numbers, you know the upside.
(21:04):
Let's talk strategy. Because identifying an
asymmetric trade is one thing, positioning correctly to
actually capture it, that's where the real money is made.
And with Core Medics, the plan is elegant, scalable, and fits
multiple risk profiles. Let's start with the core
position. If you're building a long term
exposure to CRMD, the simplest strategy is to allocate 5 to 10%
(21:26):
of your portfolio into the common stock.
This core position rides the full upside thesis, TPM success,
pediatric expansion, M&A optionality all the way to the
five year $75 target. It gives you direct
participation without expirationrisk.
The best time to build this position on pull backs,
specifically if you see CRD down6 to 10% on no negative news,
(21:51):
especially around earnings, enrollment updates or sector
wide biotech volatility, those are AD points.
Remember, in asymmetric trades you want to lean into fear, not
away from it. Next layer options If you want
to magnify upside without overexposing your core
portfolio, CRM DS option setup is very favorable.
(22:11):
Implied volatility is still elevated but not extreme, making
calls reasonably priced for the potential move ahead.
Here's the basic playbook. Start by buying deep in the
money. Call options strikes about 10 to
20% below the current share price.
For example, with CRMD trading around $9.23, look at $9 or $8
(22:32):
strike calls expiring 6 to 9 months out.
This gives you high delta exposure, meaning your options
behave more like stock and minimizes time decay.
Then out of kicker, a smaller position and out of the money
calls strikes 20 to 30% above the current price.
Think $13 or $15 strikes if you're targeting a $25 near term
(22:53):
move. These options are cheaper,
higher risk, but offer massive pay off if CRMD re rates
quickly. This two layer structure lets
you participate aggressively if the stock moves fast while
keeping your core exposure solid.
How much exposure? That depends on your risk
tolerance, but a practical modelis this.
For every $1.00 of stock you hold, you might add 25 to $0.50
(23:15):
in delta adjusted options. This way you control extra
upside without exposing yourselfto a wipeout if biotech gets
volatile. Managing the trade matters, too.
If CRMD pops toward Dollars 1820without TPN approval or a buyout
offer, consider trimming some ofyour out of the money calls.
If TPN enrollment starts faster than expected or if new federal
(23:37):
facility wins are announced, adding fresh call spread 6 to 12
months out could make sense. Stay dynamic.
Adjust based on catalysts, not emotions.
What about stop losses for the stock?
The Technical Support zone is around $7.00.
If CRMD breaks below $7.00 on heavy volume without company
specific news to explain it, that's a signal to reduce
(23:59):
exposure for options. Keep tight expiration
management. Don't let calls decay inside 60
days unless the news flow justifies holding.
One final point, biotech volatility is real.
CRMD will move 5 to 10% in a daysometimes.
That's normal. This isn't a straight line
trade, it's a strategy based on fundamental RE rating over
(24:21):
months and years. If you size it right, you can
stay in the game long enough to see it play out.
Coming up next, we'll close the episode with your final action
steps, a quick reminder about biotech risks, and how to stay
connected with us for updates asCormedix's story evolves.
You're almost there. If this episode gave you an
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(24:44):
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(25:04):
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(25:25):
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(25:47):
for the track Crystal provided under the YouTube Audio Library
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(26:09):
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