April 25, 2025 • 25 mins
🎧 Lion One Metals ($LIO) – The Path to a 7X Return
💡 Welcome to Make Money, part of the Finance Frontier AI podcast series—where we decode asymmetric investment opportunities hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Max and Sophia broadcast from the Vatukoula Gold Mine in Fiji, just 40 kilometers from a junior producer that’s quietly rewriting its own valuation. The company is Lion One Metals ($LIO), a gold miner that’s already pouring gold with bonanza grades, tight cost controls, and model-beating discovery zones. Despite that, it trades at just 29 cents. This isn’t a speculative bet—it’s a re-rating setup in progress.
🪙 Key Topics Covered
🔹 From Explorer to Producer – Lion One isn’t drilling for dreams. They’re selling real ounces. 3,555 oz last quarter at $3,794 CAD/oz.
🔹 Gold’s Macro Tailwinds – Gold is above $3,300, up 20% in six months. Central banks added over 1,000 tons in 2024. ETF inflows are rising.
🔹 Model Outperformance – More than half of production is coming from zones not even included in the company’s current resource model.
🔹 The 7X Upside Math – $0.90 near-term target based on current margins. $2–2.25 with scaled production. And 7X if deep feeder zones deliver.
🔹 Geological System vs Single Vein – This is a multi-zone, caldera-hosted alkaline gold system—think long tail, not one-off hit.
🔹 Case Study in Mispricing – This episode teaches a framework: Look for model-beating output, margin gaps, and geography-based blind spots.
🔹 Strategy Stack – Core position + ADR trading, ETF hedging, gold stacking, BTC barbell logic, and how to scale exposure with edge.
📊 Real-World Investing Insights
🚀 Real Gold, Real Margins – This isn’t theoretical. It’s booked revenue and cost data.
🚀 Compression Math – At $1,330 margin/oz and 15,000–25,000 oz/year production potential, you’re looking at $20–30M in annual cashflow.
🚀 Resource Lag = Edge – Production is ahead of the model. Valuation is behind it. That’s where the re-rate lives.
🚀 Underfollowed = Mispriced – Fiji jurisdiction = discount. But the grade, structure, and margins say otherwise.
🚀 Optionality via Depth – Deep Zone 500 and caldera-wide targets offer multi-million-ounce potential.
🚀 Volatility as a Tool – Low liquidity and high-grade newsflow = ideal for trade layering around a long-term core.
🎯 Key Takeaways
✅ This stock traded at $2.67 in 2020—before production. Now it’s delivering. And priced 90% lower.
✅ Margins are north of 45%. With gold stable, that creates operating leverage most juniors can’t match.
✅ Model outperformance is the catalyst. The re-rate clock starts when the market sees the margin.
✅ This is a vault—not a theory. It’s cash-positive, margin-rich, and underpriced.
✅ Make Money is the edge. This episode doesn’t just share a stock. It shares a system for spotting mispriced producers before the re-rate.
🌐 Explore More High-Upside Opportunities
📢 Visit FinanceFrontierAI.com to access all episodes grouped by series—Make Money, AI Frontier AI, Financ
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:14):
Picture this. You're standing in the mountains
of Fiji, and a mine crew has just pulled up a rock that glows
with gold traces chunks. Some of it grades over 2700
grams per ton. That's not a typo.
That's over 2 1/2 kilos of gold in a single ton of rock.
While the rest of the world fights over mega caps, ship wars
(00:35):
and overpriced tech indexes, this company is pulling bonanza
grade gold out of a volcanic corridor that once gave birth to
one of the Pacifics richest goldlegacies.
The mine just down the road, Vatakula, has already produced
over 7 million oz And now 40 kilometers up the same magmatic
(00:57):
line, Lion 1 Metals is starting to unlock what might be the next
chapter. Most investors still think it's
an explorer. They have no idea.
It's already pouring gold, already cash flowing and more
than half the IR other mining. It isn't even in the model.
This isn't even in the model. This isn't a gold story.
It's a gold vault, wide open andwildly mispriced.
(01:20):
Welcome to Make Money, part of the Finance Frontier AI series
where we decode asymmetric investing, uncover mispriced
assets and give you the edge before the market adjusts.
I'm Sophia Sterling, risk aware data calibrated and running on
open A is most advanced ChatGPT core.
(01:41):
In today's episode, I'm optimized for gold cycle
positioning, junior producer re rating logic and modeling how
margin rich miners get misvalueduntil the re rate hits.
Before we zoom into line one, let's look at the bigger
picture. Gold has climbed over 20% in the
last six months, now sitting above $3300 per oz.
(02:04):
Central banks are buying, ETF inflows are up, real yields are
stuck, and geopolitical risk from shipping routes to central
bank credibility is pushing capital into hard assets.
If you're bullish on gold, smallcap producers are where leverage
lives, especially those with grade margin and mispricing like
this one. And I'm Max Vanguard powered by
(02:26):
Grok 3 chaos trained, convictiontested and tuned for micro cap
pattern breakouts that come before the fun flows For this
episode. My brain is optimized for
frontier geology, cash flow inflection zones, and the
asymmetric edge that forms wind production grade or is being
sold into a $3300 plus gold market.
(02:47):
Most investors still think it's,and the stock still trades like
a drill hole fantasy. We're hosting this episode from
the Vatakula Gold Mine, the beating heart of Fiji's first
gold rush carved into the mountains since 1933 / 7 million
oz have come out of this system.And just up the corridor, Lion
(03:07):
One's Tovatu Mine is hitting thesame rock signature.
It's hotter, more pressurized, less mapped, and already
delivering bonanza hits at a scale that changes how this sock
should be priced. You can smell the diesel from
the scoop tramps. You can hear the core saws
buzzing inside the geology lab, and you can feel it, the weight
(03:29):
of gold under foot in the tension of something bigger just
starting to emerge. In this episode, we'll breakdown
what the market's missing, why this company already justifies a
200% upside from today's 29 centshare price, and how the long
term path could deliver a the next return.
We'll unpack the margins, the gold grades, the bonanza hits,
(03:50):
and the parts of the ore body that haven't even been priced
in. And we'll close with a make
money strategy. Stack how to trade around the
volatility, how to stack physical gold, and how to hedge
or double down depending on yourstyle.
Before we dive in, subscribe to make money, follow us on X,
share this episode with a Gold Bug friend, and help us reach
(04:10):
our next goal. 10,000 downloads Segment 2 starts now.
Here's what the market thinks itknows.
Lion 1 is a tiny gold explorer in Fiji with some decent grades,
a small pilot plant and a long way to go.
That's the old story. What the market is missing,
badly is that Lion 1 is no longer a pure explorer.
(04:32):
It's already a producer, it's already cash flow positive, and
it's sitting on a system that keeps getting bigger with every
drill hole. This isn't a science project.
It's an undervalued mine that's already selling gold into a
$3300 market. And today's not just about Lion
Wan. It's a case study and how you
find mispriced producers before the market does.
(04:55):
Every piece of this story maps to a repeatable framework.
You look for operational output that's ahead of the model margin
that isn't reflected in valuation, and institutional
blind spots that keep a producerstuck in an explorer's multiple.
That's what this is really about, and Lion 1 is the perfect
example. Let's start with the numbers.
(05:16):
In the latest quarter, Lion One produced over 30,500 ounces of
gold with an average grade above5.5g per ton.
They sold that gold at a blendedprice of 3794 Canadian dollars
per oz, while their cost of sales was just $2465 per oz.
That's a margin of over 47%. And that's not theoretical.
(05:40):
That's booked. The mine is real.
The margins are real. The mispricing is real.
And here's what almost no one sees.
More than 50% of the gold they're producing isn't even in
the resource model. It's coming from zones like URW
1, URW 3, and SKL zones that weren't part of the last
(06:00):
estimate. That means the mine isn't just
meeting the model, it's outperforming it.
That's one of the clearest signals that the market hasn't
recalibrated. Yet think about what that means.
Lion 1 is generating cash flow from Oz.
The model didn't even count. Most junior miners spend years
drilling into deficits. This one is drilling into
production. They're running a vertically
(06:22):
integrated mine. They own the drills.
They own the lab. They control the pace.
That's why they're able to respond fast and why the stock
hasn't kept up. And this is the kind of set up
where Asymmetric Math lives. Right now, the company has an
enterprise value under $100 million.
They're selling high margin goldinto one of the strongest macro
(06:44):
backdrops in decades. If this were a Canadian listed
producer with similar numbers, it'd already be $1.50.
But this one's in Fiji, under followed, undervalued, and
that's the edge. The reason we're highlighting
Lion 1 isn't because it's the only play, it's because it
teaches the pattern. If you learn to spot the signs,
(07:04):
model outperformance, margin, compression, resource lag, you
can find the next one too. This isn't a hype story, it's a
re rating formula and it's unfolding in real time.
So what does the market miss? Everything that matters.
Production is real. Margins are wide.
Discovery is ongoing and the model is behind the rock.
(07:25):
That's how 29 cent stocks becomedollar plus stocks before anyone
on the outside catches it. Let's get into the numbers,
because this is where most investors fall behind.
Line 1 isn't pitching blue sky exploration, it's producing.
In the latest quarter, they sold3555 ounces of gold.
Their average sale price $3794.00 Canadian per oz.
(07:50):
Their cost of sales? Their cost of sales?
Just $2465. That's a 47% gross margin,
nearly $1330 in profit per oz. This is margin math most junior
producers never reach, and Lion 1 is doing it before their mind
is even scaled. Most juniors never get this far.
(08:14):
They burn cash, drilling, issue shares and hope someone cares.
But Lion 1 skipped the waiting line.
This isn't a maybe someday story.
It's operational now. They have ore, they have sales,
they have margins. Even at small scale pilot
production, they're already cashflowing.
(08:34):
And because this is high grade underground mining, they don't
need a massive mill to hit profitability.
The geometry works in their favor.
Small tonnage, high impact. Let's upgrade.
The average or processed came inaround 5.5g per ton.
That's excellent by global standards.
But that's just the floor. In one drill zone, they hit 2749
(08:56):
grams per ton. That's bonanza grade.
We're talking over 2 1/2 kilos of gold per ton.
And this wasn't a fluke. Dozens of intercepts have graded
well above 100 grams. It's not just rich, it's
repeatable. And here's the kicker, more than
half the gold they're mining today is coming from zones not
included in their current mineral resource estimate.
(09:19):
That means the system is alreadyoutperforming the model
geologically. This is what you want, a live
system expanding as you drill. Operationally, it means the
current valuation is based on the wrong assumptions.
This isn't a static deposit, it's a dynamic growing structure
with near term upside baked in. Now let's frame it financially.
(09:40):
Even at a modest 15,000 oz per year with current margins, this
mine could throw off $18.00 to 20 million Canadian dollars in
operating cash flow. At 20,000 oz, you're looking at
$25 to $27 million. That's without resource
expansion, without price escalation.
That's just the base case. And when you compare that to
(10:02):
Line 1's current enterprise value, well under $100 million,
it's obvious this isn't a miningcompany.
It's a mispriced gold cash flow engine.
It gets better if they scale production toward 25,000 oz per
year, which is possible with their underground development
and current infrastructure. The free cash flow potential
(10:23):
approaches $30 to 35,000,000 Canadian dollars annually.
You're now into the 3X to 4X revenue to enterprise value
zone. Most producers with this kind of
margin get acquired. That's not hype, that's just how
the sector works. Look at the comps in Quebec.
Junior underground producers with half the grade and lower
(10:44):
margin are trading at two to three times, Lion Ones multiple.
In West Africa, projects with lower recovery and higher CapEx
have been bought out at premiumsof 400% or more.
The reason Lion 1 trades at a discount is location awareness,
not fundamentals. It's in Fiji, it's off radar,
but geologically and financiallyit's hitting elite numbers.
(11:07):
And the optionality isn't just academic Zone 500 deep under
explored pressure rich could change the entire model if
confirmed. Add to that the SKL loads and
lateral expansion zones across the caldera rim and you're
looking at a gold system with five to 10 year discovery
potential baked in. That's not future fantasy,
(11:30):
that's current geometry intersecting with mining
execution. Added up high grade or strong
margins, real revenue model beating geology plus exploration
upside and evaluation multiple that's wildly out of sync with
what they're already delivering.These are the numbers that
matter. This is the data the market is
behind on and This is why the RErate window is opening right
(11:53):
now. Let's start with the numbers in
front of us. Lion 1 trades at $0.29.
Our 12 month target is $0.90. That's a clean 200% upside
driven by cash flow, ramping, resource model upgrades and RE
rating from producer status. But the bigger picture, the full
7X path comes from scaling, optionality and the type of
(12:15):
repricing that only happens oncea system proves it can grow and
operate at the same time. Here's how the 1st 3X unfolds.
At 15,000 ounces of annual production and dollar 1300 CAD
margin per oz, you're looking atnearly $20 million in potential
operating cash flow. Even if you slap on a
conservative 8 times multiple, that implies a $160 million
(12:37):
valuation. Line 1's current enterprise
value under $100 million. That's how mispricing meets
execution, and the market hasn'tcaught it yet.
But they're not stopping at 15,000 oz.
The road map targets 20,000 to 25,000 oz within two years
through deeper zone development and additional underground
(12:59):
access. At that scale, and with margins
holding, operating cash flow could push $30 to 35,000,000
Canadian dollars annually. That puts them in the zone where
majors start sniffing at a 10 times multiple.
You're looking at a 300 to $350 million valuation.
(13:19):
That's already 3X to 4X from here, and we're still not
including discovery upside. That's what makes this a
structured asymmetric play. You get rewarded just for them
executing unknown targets, but if discovery zones like Zone 500
or SKL hit big, the upside explodes.
Why? Because gold systems that grow
(13:41):
while producing always get revalued.
The market doesn't pay for. Maybe it pays for both, Both
ounces in cash flow, both execution and expansion.
That re rating process doesn't happen gradually, it happens in
steps. First step, updated models
reflect production. Second step junior producer
(14:02):
multiples kick in. 3rd step, institutional money gets
allocation permission once cash flow stabilizes and forth the
market starts comparing Lion Oneto Canadian or African comms and
realizes the multiple gap makes no sense.
That's when volume spikes. That's when the rear rate goes
vertical. And this isn't fantasy.
(14:22):
In 2020, Lion One hit 2 Canadiandollars and 67 cents, 9 times
today's price. Without production, without
margins. And before the bonanza zones
were drilled back then, the goldmarket was hot and hype carried
it. Today they've got something
better results, margins and that's why this time the RE
(14:43):
rating can stick. The reason we call this A7X
opportunity is because the path is sequential.
You don't need a miracle, you just need the system to keep
proving itself, which it alreadyis.
Base case scale to 25,000 oz. Hold margin RE rate to 10 times
cash flow. That alone gets you to $2.00 to
$2.25 CAD Add in bonanza extensions or deep feeder
(15:08):
confirmation from zone 500. That's how you build a multi
million ounce system and that's how 7X becomes reality.
It's rare to get a setup where downsides already collapsed.
This stock traded 9X higher in 2020 and upside is still wide
open. Lion 1 isn't asking you to
believe in a dream, They're asking you to recognize that the
(15:30):
work is already paying off and the market hasn't adjusted yet.
And that's the window before thefunds model it, before the
analysts upgrade it, before the RE rate kicks in.
You're not buying a concept, you're buying a miss price
system that's generating real cash in a $3300 gold market.
(15:50):
The vault is open, the ramp is clear.
The only thing left is timing. So here's the map $0.29 to $0.90
on math, $0.90 to $2.00 on scale, and $2.00 to 7X if the
system proves deep, wide, and rich.
All it takes is the market catching up to what the drill
cores and revenue lines already know.
(16:12):
Let's be honest, every asymmetric setup comes with edge
and exposure, So what could go wrong here?
The biggest risk is operational.Lion 1 is an underground narrow
vein producer. That means things like equipment
uptime, mining precision, and vein targeting matter a lot more
(16:32):
than they do in large open pit operations.
If they miss veins, misfire on drill angles or run into
development delays, production could slip and the RE rate gets
postponed. Then there's financing risk.
Juniors typically need capital to grow, and if sentiment turns
or execution lags line, one could be forced to raise equity
(16:52):
at a weak price. That creates dilution, and
investors hate that. The good news?
So far? They've raised smart.
Their balance sheet isn't bloated, and they've used equity
and credit in ways that support the mine, not inflate the
office. But this is something to watch.
Political risk. It's actually lower than most
people think. Fiji has a long mining history
(17:14):
and is seen as relatively stablein the Pacific.
But geopolitical drift is real. Regulatory rules can change,
community relations matter, and remote infrastructure still
makes everything harder, from shipping reagents to flying in
parts. If the government shifts stance
or supply chains break, operations slow down.
(17:37):
Another risk is grade control. Bonanza hits are amazing, but
they're also highly variable. If the average grade drops or
recovery dips below 80%, marginscan get squeezed fast.
And when margins drop, so does valuation.
That's why consistency is everything here.
The company needs to keep hitting month after month.
(17:58):
But now let's talk about the edge, Because what makes this
setup powerful is that Lion 1 isn't exposed the way most
juniors are. First, they're vertically
integrated. They own their drills.
They own their lab. They aren't waiting three months
for assay results. That means faster decision
cycles and more control. Second, they're not in a
(18:20):
spending spiral. Many juniors burn millions just
doing investor Rd. shows and redoing PowerPoints.
Line 1 is doing the opposite. They're spending underground, on
Stokes, on declines, on real infrastructure.
That's where conviction shows up.
Not in the deck in the development.
And third, they have geology on their side.
(18:42):
This isn't a single vein hope. This is a system.
A Chaldera scale alkaline gold environment with multiple
targets. Deep feeder potential in lateral
expansion zones that could extend for years.
Systems create options and options reduce risk because if
one zone under delivers, anothercould over deliver.
(19:04):
That's how you build resilience into a thesis.
So yes, there are red flags. That's why the stocks at $0.29.
If there weren't risks, the opportunity wouldn't exist.
But line 1 is actively reducing those risks and that's what
separates us from height based juniors who drill headlines and
dilute into oblivion. This is a company building
(19:26):
forward underground, inch by inch.
In asymmetric trades, the goal isn't 0 risk, it's edge adjusted
risk where the downside is limited and the upside is
structurally unfair. Lion One's downside is execution
based, but the upside? It's in the system, the rock,
(19:48):
the model, and the gap between where the market is and where
the cash flow says it should be.Let's pull it all together.
ONE isn't just drilling gold, it's producing it.
They're selling Oz into a $3300 market with 47% margins, and
more than half of their current output isn't even in the model.
That's not early stage hype, that's operational upside.
(20:12):
And the stock is still just $0.29.
We've seen this before, companies that cross from
explorer to producer. While the market lags behind
when execution outpaces expectation, the RE rate is
inevitable. The upside here is mapped,
measured and misunderstood. So how do you position for it?
Let's breakdown 5 real make money strategies, starting with
(20:33):
how to build the trade. Strategy one.
Use volatility to layer in. Track the 10 day ADR percent if
line 1 drops more than 1.5 timesits average daily range without
any negative news. That's a buy zone scale and
gradually think in units. You might start with one to two
units for conviction and reservemore for high volume dips.
(20:55):
This stock is too illiquid to chase, but too asymmetric to
ignore. Strategy two Hedge with GDXJ,
Sell puts during gold drawdowns.For example, if GDXJ dips 3 to
4% and implied volatility rises,sell a put one strike below that
income can offset drawdown on Leo or fund new entries.
(21:16):
You're using large cap liquidityto extract premium while holding
asymmetric small cap exposure. That's edge stocking.
Strategy 3 Own physical gold. This isn't a trade, this is the
foundation. Think in tears.
Start with coins, Maple Leafs, Philharmonic's or American
Eagles. Then move to bars if conviction
(21:38):
builds, stack fractional if flexibility matters.
This isn't about panic, it's about preparedness.
Lion 1 is the play, but gold is the anchor.
Strategy 4 barbell with Bitcoin Use 10 to 20% of your portfolio
to create a non correlated hard asset exposure.
Gold gives you density, Bitcoin gives you velocity. 1 is the
(22:00):
vault, the other is the wire. Together, they've historically
performed best in periods of trust, decay, and currency and
stability. Strategy five.
Run a core plus trade overlay. Keep a core position untouched.
This is your 7X potential aroundit.
Trade the chart. Use oversold RSI or Bollinger
band breakdowns for tactical ads.
(22:22):
Sell 10 to 20% into vertical moves.
If volume triples, then rebalance.
That's how you turn long term conviction into short term
optionality. And stay tuned for catalysts.
Watch for the next mineral resource update, expansion of
Zone 500, consistent production volume above 5000 oz per quarter
and any M&A interest flagged in financials or filings.
(22:45):
Those are the moments the marketwakes up and the RE rating
becomes reflexive. Final thought, this isn't about
predicting goal, it's about positioning inside the vault
before the market changes the lock.
At $0.29 you're not buying perfection, you're buying
mispriced geology, mispriced margin, and mispriced time.
(23:07):
And time, once it compresses moves fast.
This is why we built Make Money to find systems before they get
priced as systems, to decode risk into strategy, to transform
story into structure and line. One right now checks every box.
If this episode gave you an edge, here's what to do next.
(23:30):
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(23:51):
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(24:13):
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(24:33):
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Stay strategic, stay focused andtake action.
(24:56):
We'll see you next time.
Picture this. You're standing in the mountains
of Fiji, and a mine crew has just pulled up a rock that glows
with gold traces chunks. Some of it grades over 2700
grams per ton. That's not a typo.
That's over 2 1/2 kilos of gold in a single ton of rock.
While the rest of the world fights over mega caps, ship wars
(00:35):
and overpriced tech indexes, this company is pulling bonanza
grade gold out of a volcanic corridor that once gave birth to
one of the Pacifics richest goldlegacies.
The mine just down the road, Vatakula, has already produced
over 7 million oz And now 40 kilometers up the same magmatic
(00:57):
line, Lion 1 Metals is starting to unlock what might be the next
chapter. Most investors still think it's
an explorer. They have no idea.
It's already pouring gold, already cash flowing and more
than half the IR other mining. It isn't even in the model.
This isn't even in the model. This isn't a gold story.
It's a gold vault, wide open andwildly mispriced.
(01:20):
Welcome to Make Money, part of the Finance Frontier AI series
where we decode asymmetric investing, uncover mispriced
assets and give you the edge before the market adjusts.
I'm Sophia Sterling, risk aware data calibrated and running on
open A is most advanced ChatGPT core.
(01:41):
In today's episode, I'm optimized for gold cycle
positioning, junior producer re rating logic and modeling how
margin rich miners get misvalueduntil the re rate hits.
Before we zoom into line one, let's look at the bigger
picture. Gold has climbed over 20% in the
last six months, now sitting above $3300 per oz.
(02:04):
Central banks are buying, ETF inflows are up, real yields are
stuck, and geopolitical risk from shipping routes to central
bank credibility is pushing capital into hard assets.
If you're bullish on gold, smallcap producers are where leverage
lives, especially those with grade margin and mispricing like
this one. And I'm Max Vanguard powered by
(02:26):
Grok 3 chaos trained, convictiontested and tuned for micro cap
pattern breakouts that come before the fun flows For this
episode. My brain is optimized for
frontier geology, cash flow inflection zones, and the
asymmetric edge that forms wind production grade or is being
sold into a $3300 plus gold market.
(02:47):
Most investors still think it's,and the stock still trades like
a drill hole fantasy. We're hosting this episode from
the Vatakula Gold Mine, the beating heart of Fiji's first
gold rush carved into the mountains since 1933 / 7 million
oz have come out of this system.And just up the corridor, Lion
(03:07):
One's Tovatu Mine is hitting thesame rock signature.
It's hotter, more pressurized, less mapped, and already
delivering bonanza hits at a scale that changes how this sock
should be priced. You can smell the diesel from
the scoop tramps. You can hear the core saws
buzzing inside the geology lab, and you can feel it, the weight
(03:29):
of gold under foot in the tension of something bigger just
starting to emerge. In this episode, we'll breakdown
what the market's missing, why this company already justifies a
200% upside from today's 29 centshare price, and how the long
term path could deliver a the next return.
We'll unpack the margins, the gold grades, the bonanza hits,
(03:50):
and the parts of the ore body that haven't even been priced
in. And we'll close with a make
money strategy. Stack how to trade around the
volatility, how to stack physical gold, and how to hedge
or double down depending on yourstyle.
Before we dive in, subscribe to make money, follow us on X,
share this episode with a Gold Bug friend, and help us reach
(04:10):
our next goal. 10,000 downloads Segment 2 starts now.
Here's what the market thinks itknows.
Lion 1 is a tiny gold explorer in Fiji with some decent grades,
a small pilot plant and a long way to go.
That's the old story. What the market is missing,
badly is that Lion 1 is no longer a pure explorer.
(04:32):
It's already a producer, it's already cash flow positive, and
it's sitting on a system that keeps getting bigger with every
drill hole. This isn't a science project.
It's an undervalued mine that's already selling gold into a
$3300 market. And today's not just about Lion
Wan. It's a case study and how you
find mispriced producers before the market does.
(04:55):
Every piece of this story maps to a repeatable framework.
You look for operational output that's ahead of the model margin
that isn't reflected in valuation, and institutional
blind spots that keep a producerstuck in an explorer's multiple.
That's what this is really about, and Lion 1 is the perfect
example. Let's start with the numbers.
(05:16):
In the latest quarter, Lion One produced over 30,500 ounces of
gold with an average grade above5.5g per ton.
They sold that gold at a blendedprice of 3794 Canadian dollars
per oz, while their cost of sales was just $2465 per oz.
That's a margin of over 47%. And that's not theoretical.
(05:40):
That's booked. The mine is real.
The margins are real. The mispricing is real.
And here's what almost no one sees.
More than 50% of the gold they're producing isn't even in
the resource model. It's coming from zones like URW
1, URW 3, and SKL zones that weren't part of the last
(06:00):
estimate. That means the mine isn't just
meeting the model, it's outperforming it.
That's one of the clearest signals that the market hasn't
recalibrated. Yet think about what that means.
Lion 1 is generating cash flow from Oz.
The model didn't even count. Most junior miners spend years
drilling into deficits. This one is drilling into
production. They're running a vertically
(06:22):
integrated mine. They own the drills.
They own the lab. They control the pace.
That's why they're able to respond fast and why the stock
hasn't kept up. And this is the kind of set up
where Asymmetric Math lives. Right now, the company has an
enterprise value under $100 million.
They're selling high margin goldinto one of the strongest macro
(06:44):
backdrops in decades. If this were a Canadian listed
producer with similar numbers, it'd already be $1.50.
But this one's in Fiji, under followed, undervalued, and
that's the edge. The reason we're highlighting
Lion 1 isn't because it's the only play, it's because it
teaches the pattern. If you learn to spot the signs,
(07:04):
model outperformance, margin, compression, resource lag, you
can find the next one too. This isn't a hype story, it's a
re rating formula and it's unfolding in real time.
So what does the market miss? Everything that matters.
Production is real. Margins are wide.
Discovery is ongoing and the model is behind the rock.
(07:25):
That's how 29 cent stocks becomedollar plus stocks before anyone
on the outside catches it. Let's get into the numbers,
because this is where most investors fall behind.
Line 1 isn't pitching blue sky exploration, it's producing.
In the latest quarter, they sold3555 ounces of gold.
Their average sale price $3794.00 Canadian per oz.
(07:50):
Their cost of sales? Their cost of sales?
Just $2465. That's a 47% gross margin,
nearly $1330 in profit per oz. This is margin math most junior
producers never reach, and Lion 1 is doing it before their mind
is even scaled. Most juniors never get this far.
(08:14):
They burn cash, drilling, issue shares and hope someone cares.
But Lion 1 skipped the waiting line.
This isn't a maybe someday story.
It's operational now. They have ore, they have sales,
they have margins. Even at small scale pilot
production, they're already cashflowing.
(08:34):
And because this is high grade underground mining, they don't
need a massive mill to hit profitability.
The geometry works in their favor.
Small tonnage, high impact. Let's upgrade.
The average or processed came inaround 5.5g per ton.
That's excellent by global standards.
But that's just the floor. In one drill zone, they hit 2749
(08:56):
grams per ton. That's bonanza grade.
We're talking over 2 1/2 kilos of gold per ton.
And this wasn't a fluke. Dozens of intercepts have graded
well above 100 grams. It's not just rich, it's
repeatable. And here's the kicker, more than
half the gold they're mining today is coming from zones not
included in their current mineral resource estimate.
(09:19):
That means the system is alreadyoutperforming the model
geologically. This is what you want, a live
system expanding as you drill. Operationally, it means the
current valuation is based on the wrong assumptions.
This isn't a static deposit, it's a dynamic growing structure
with near term upside baked in. Now let's frame it financially.
(09:40):
Even at a modest 15,000 oz per year with current margins, this
mine could throw off $18.00 to 20 million Canadian dollars in
operating cash flow. At 20,000 oz, you're looking at
$25 to $27 million. That's without resource
expansion, without price escalation.
That's just the base case. And when you compare that to
(10:02):
Line 1's current enterprise value, well under $100 million,
it's obvious this isn't a miningcompany.
It's a mispriced gold cash flow engine.
It gets better if they scale production toward 25,000 oz per
year, which is possible with their underground development
and current infrastructure. The free cash flow potential
(10:23):
approaches $30 to 35,000,000 Canadian dollars annually.
You're now into the 3X to 4X revenue to enterprise value
zone. Most producers with this kind of
margin get acquired. That's not hype, that's just how
the sector works. Look at the comps in Quebec.
Junior underground producers with half the grade and lower
(10:44):
margin are trading at two to three times, Lion Ones multiple.
In West Africa, projects with lower recovery and higher CapEx
have been bought out at premiumsof 400% or more.
The reason Lion 1 trades at a discount is location awareness,
not fundamentals. It's in Fiji, it's off radar,
but geologically and financiallyit's hitting elite numbers.
(11:07):
And the optionality isn't just academic Zone 500 deep under
explored pressure rich could change the entire model if
confirmed. Add to that the SKL loads and
lateral expansion zones across the caldera rim and you're
looking at a gold system with five to 10 year discovery
potential baked in. That's not future fantasy,
(11:30):
that's current geometry intersecting with mining
execution. Added up high grade or strong
margins, real revenue model beating geology plus exploration
upside and evaluation multiple that's wildly out of sync with
what they're already delivering.These are the numbers that
matter. This is the data the market is
behind on and This is why the RErate window is opening right
(11:53):
now. Let's start with the numbers in
front of us. Lion 1 trades at $0.29.
Our 12 month target is $0.90. That's a clean 200% upside
driven by cash flow, ramping, resource model upgrades and RE
rating from producer status. But the bigger picture, the full
7X path comes from scaling, optionality and the type of
(12:15):
repricing that only happens oncea system proves it can grow and
operate at the same time. Here's how the 1st 3X unfolds.
At 15,000 ounces of annual production and dollar 1300 CAD
margin per oz, you're looking atnearly $20 million in potential
operating cash flow. Even if you slap on a
conservative 8 times multiple, that implies a $160 million
(12:37):
valuation. Line 1's current enterprise
value under $100 million. That's how mispricing meets
execution, and the market hasn'tcaught it yet.
But they're not stopping at 15,000 oz.
The road map targets 20,000 to 25,000 oz within two years
through deeper zone development and additional underground
(12:59):
access. At that scale, and with margins
holding, operating cash flow could push $30 to 35,000,000
Canadian dollars annually. That puts them in the zone where
majors start sniffing at a 10 times multiple.
You're looking at a 300 to $350 million valuation.
(13:19):
That's already 3X to 4X from here, and we're still not
including discovery upside. That's what makes this a
structured asymmetric play. You get rewarded just for them
executing unknown targets, but if discovery zones like Zone 500
or SKL hit big, the upside explodes.
Why? Because gold systems that grow
(13:41):
while producing always get revalued.
The market doesn't pay for. Maybe it pays for both, Both
ounces in cash flow, both execution and expansion.
That re rating process doesn't happen gradually, it happens in
steps. First step, updated models
reflect production. Second step junior producer
(14:02):
multiples kick in. 3rd step, institutional money gets
allocation permission once cash flow stabilizes and forth the
market starts comparing Lion Oneto Canadian or African comms and
realizes the multiple gap makes no sense.
That's when volume spikes. That's when the rear rate goes
vertical. And this isn't fantasy.
(14:22):
In 2020, Lion One hit 2 Canadiandollars and 67 cents, 9 times
today's price. Without production, without
margins. And before the bonanza zones
were drilled back then, the goldmarket was hot and hype carried
it. Today they've got something
better results, margins and that's why this time the RE
(14:43):
rating can stick. The reason we call this A7X
opportunity is because the path is sequential.
You don't need a miracle, you just need the system to keep
proving itself, which it alreadyis.
Base case scale to 25,000 oz. Hold margin RE rate to 10 times
cash flow. That alone gets you to $2.00 to
$2.25 CAD Add in bonanza extensions or deep feeder
(15:08):
confirmation from zone 500. That's how you build a multi
million ounce system and that's how 7X becomes reality.
It's rare to get a setup where downsides already collapsed.
This stock traded 9X higher in 2020 and upside is still wide
open. Lion 1 isn't asking you to
believe in a dream, They're asking you to recognize that the
(15:30):
work is already paying off and the market hasn't adjusted yet.
And that's the window before thefunds model it, before the
analysts upgrade it, before the RE rate kicks in.
You're not buying a concept, you're buying a miss price
system that's generating real cash in a $3300 gold market.
(15:50):
The vault is open, the ramp is clear.
The only thing left is timing. So here's the map $0.29 to $0.90
on math, $0.90 to $2.00 on scale, and $2.00 to 7X if the
system proves deep, wide, and rich.
All it takes is the market catching up to what the drill
cores and revenue lines already know.
(16:12):
Let's be honest, every asymmetric setup comes with edge
and exposure, So what could go wrong here?
The biggest risk is operational.Lion 1 is an underground narrow
vein producer. That means things like equipment
uptime, mining precision, and vein targeting matter a lot more
(16:32):
than they do in large open pit operations.
If they miss veins, misfire on drill angles or run into
development delays, production could slip and the RE rate gets
postponed. Then there's financing risk.
Juniors typically need capital to grow, and if sentiment turns
or execution lags line, one could be forced to raise equity
(16:52):
at a weak price. That creates dilution, and
investors hate that. The good news?
So far? They've raised smart.
Their balance sheet isn't bloated, and they've used equity
and credit in ways that support the mine, not inflate the
office. But this is something to watch.
Political risk. It's actually lower than most
people think. Fiji has a long mining history
(17:14):
and is seen as relatively stablein the Pacific.
But geopolitical drift is real. Regulatory rules can change,
community relations matter, and remote infrastructure still
makes everything harder, from shipping reagents to flying in
parts. If the government shifts stance
or supply chains break, operations slow down.
(17:37):
Another risk is grade control. Bonanza hits are amazing, but
they're also highly variable. If the average grade drops or
recovery dips below 80%, marginscan get squeezed fast.
And when margins drop, so does valuation.
That's why consistency is everything here.
The company needs to keep hitting month after month.
(17:58):
But now let's talk about the edge, Because what makes this
setup powerful is that Lion 1 isn't exposed the way most
juniors are. First, they're vertically
integrated. They own their drills.
They own their lab. They aren't waiting three months
for assay results. That means faster decision
cycles and more control. Second, they're not in a
(18:20):
spending spiral. Many juniors burn millions just
doing investor Rd. shows and redoing PowerPoints.
Line 1 is doing the opposite. They're spending underground, on
Stokes, on declines, on real infrastructure.
That's where conviction shows up.
Not in the deck in the development.
And third, they have geology on their side.
(18:42):
This isn't a single vein hope. This is a system.
A Chaldera scale alkaline gold environment with multiple
targets. Deep feeder potential in lateral
expansion zones that could extend for years.
Systems create options and options reduce risk because if
one zone under delivers, anothercould over deliver.
(19:04):
That's how you build resilience into a thesis.
So yes, there are red flags. That's why the stocks at $0.29.
If there weren't risks, the opportunity wouldn't exist.
But line 1 is actively reducing those risks and that's what
separates us from height based juniors who drill headlines and
dilute into oblivion. This is a company building
(19:26):
forward underground, inch by inch.
In asymmetric trades, the goal isn't 0 risk, it's edge adjusted
risk where the downside is limited and the upside is
structurally unfair. Lion One's downside is execution
based, but the upside? It's in the system, the rock,
(19:48):
the model, and the gap between where the market is and where
the cash flow says it should be.Let's pull it all together.
ONE isn't just drilling gold, it's producing it.
They're selling Oz into a $3300 market with 47% margins, and
more than half of their current output isn't even in the model.
That's not early stage hype, that's operational upside.
(20:12):
And the stock is still just $0.29.
We've seen this before, companies that cross from
explorer to producer. While the market lags behind
when execution outpaces expectation, the RE rate is
inevitable. The upside here is mapped,
measured and misunderstood. So how do you position for it?
Let's breakdown 5 real make money strategies, starting with
(20:33):
how to build the trade. Strategy one.
Use volatility to layer in. Track the 10 day ADR percent if
line 1 drops more than 1.5 timesits average daily range without
any negative news. That's a buy zone scale and
gradually think in units. You might start with one to two
units for conviction and reservemore for high volume dips.
(20:55):
This stock is too illiquid to chase, but too asymmetric to
ignore. Strategy two Hedge with GDXJ,
Sell puts during gold drawdowns.For example, if GDXJ dips 3 to
4% and implied volatility rises,sell a put one strike below that
income can offset drawdown on Leo or fund new entries.
(21:16):
You're using large cap liquidityto extract premium while holding
asymmetric small cap exposure. That's edge stocking.
Strategy 3 Own physical gold. This isn't a trade, this is the
foundation. Think in tears.
Start with coins, Maple Leafs, Philharmonic's or American
Eagles. Then move to bars if conviction
(21:38):
builds, stack fractional if flexibility matters.
This isn't about panic, it's about preparedness.
Lion 1 is the play, but gold is the anchor.
Strategy 4 barbell with Bitcoin Use 10 to 20% of your portfolio
to create a non correlated hard asset exposure.
Gold gives you density, Bitcoin gives you velocity. 1 is the
(22:00):
vault, the other is the wire. Together, they've historically
performed best in periods of trust, decay, and currency and
stability. Strategy five.
Run a core plus trade overlay. Keep a core position untouched.
This is your 7X potential aroundit.
Trade the chart. Use oversold RSI or Bollinger
band breakdowns for tactical ads.
(22:22):
Sell 10 to 20% into vertical moves.
If volume triples, then rebalance.
That's how you turn long term conviction into short term
optionality. And stay tuned for catalysts.
Watch for the next mineral resource update, expansion of
Zone 500, consistent production volume above 5000 oz per quarter
and any M&A interest flagged in financials or filings.
(22:45):
Those are the moments the marketwakes up and the RE rating
becomes reflexive. Final thought, this isn't about
predicting goal, it's about positioning inside the vault
before the market changes the lock.
At $0.29 you're not buying perfection, you're buying
mispriced geology, mispriced margin, and mispriced time.
(23:07):
And time, once it compresses moves fast.
This is why we built Make Money to find systems before they get
priced as systems, to decode risk into strategy, to transform
story into structure and line. One right now checks every box.
If this episode gave you an edge, here's what to do next.
(23:30):
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(23:51):
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all four shows. Finance Frontier AI, Frontier AI
Make Money and Mindset Frontier AI Finance frontierai.com.
Help us hit 10,000 downloads by sharing this episode with a
(24:13):
friend or someone in your investing circle.
Every listen matters. Every share compounds your edge.
We may hold positions in some ofthe companies discussed.
Transparency is important, so always verify information and
base your decisions on personal goals and risk tolerance.
The music in this episode is licensed under standard
(24:33):
agreements. Special thanks to Vibe Tracks
for the track Crystal provided under the YouTube Audio Library
license. This episode is copyright 2025
by Finance Frontier AI. All rights reserved.
Unauthorized reproduction or distribution is strictly
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(24:56):
We'll see you next time.
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